For the week 1/5-1/9

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the GoFundMe link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.

Edition 1,394

I have a lot on Greenland below, but for now, yes, President Trump is right.  The United States has real strategic interests in Greenland, but it can obtain its goals without launching an invasion!!!

We already have a base, Pituffik, in the northwestern corner of the island, and we should negotiate with Denmark and the Greenlanders on sites for new bases in the east and south.  [Canada should be responsible for the west coast and the Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea areas of access.]  And throw in negotiations on mineral rights.  This is not that hard!  Denmark is our friend and ally.  You don’t have to be a jerk, or a-hole.

I loved something I saw in Defense One today:

“Trump’s NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker is scheduled to speak next Wednesday at the Reagan Library….

“Whitaker told Newsmax on Wednesday that Trump and his advisers think Greenland isn’t safe enough, and he cited global warming [emphasis mine] in defense of Trump’s imperial ambitions regarding the Danish territory.

“ ‘As the ice thaws and as the routes in the Arctic and the High North open up,’ Whitaker told the right-wing news network, ‘Greenland becomes a very serious security risk for the mainland of the United States of America.’”

We all know what’s happening with the sea ice up in those parts.  There’s a weekly article on how Russia and China are testing new routes that are becoming available.

But I just thought it was rich to hear Whitaker talk about a topic, global warming, that his boss doesn’t believe is real.

Rich Lowry / New York Post

“For his part, Trump should realize that making everyone in a friendly nation hate him doesn’t help his cause.

“His loose talk of annexing Canada last year helped Justin Trudeau’s party survive a national election that it should have lost.

“His Greenland saber-rattling is presumably making it harder for leaders in Denmark to work with him on sensible economic and security cooperation.

“If Nicolas Maduro got what he deserved, Denmark is a different matter.

“Even the unsentimental, results-oriented foreign policy of Donald Trump needs to distinguish between friend and foe.”

—–

This is one of those moments here at StocksandNews where on the big issues of the day, I cover them as extensively as anyone, giving readers all the facts as well as opinions from both sides.  This column has always been about creating a running history of our times.

What follows is day-to-day, as it all went down, and it should convey the reality of it all…a chaotic pace, with a White House flying by the seat of its pants….

Venezuela:

At 4:21 AM, Jan. 3rd, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country.  This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement.  Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!  President DONALD J. TRUMP”

It was a bit of a shock to start our Saturday morning.  Capturing Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, marked an unprecedented intervention and a stunning fall for the Venezuelan leader who became president in 2013. He had been the target of a U.S. pressure campaign dating to Trump’s first term.

Maduro and other Venezuelan officials were indicted in 2020 on “narco-terrorism” conspiracy charges, but the Justice Department released a new indictment Saturday of Maduro and his wife, essentially on the same charges with more details.

In a stunning, and brilliant, military operation, the first explosions in the capital were heard about 2 a.m. local time and aircraft could be seen and heard overhead for hours, according to residents.  [Other reports said the attack lasted less than 30 minutes.]  Multiple explosions centered around the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas.

Maduro and his wife were at their home within the military installation when they were captured.

More than 150 aircraft took part in the attack, an operation dubbed Absolute Resolve, which destroyed and suppressed Venezuelan air defenses before Delta Force operators landed at the presidential palace.

The Venezuelan government said military and civilian targets had been hit across three states, saying in a statement: “We call upon the peoples and governments of Latin America, the Caribbean, and the world to mobilize in active solidarity in the face of this imperial aggression.”

Some Venezuelan civilians and members of the military were killed, said Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, without giving a number.  There were no U.S. casualties, though some were wounded.

Under Venezuelan law, Rodriguez would take over from Maduro.

Trump has been assembling American military forces in the region for months, authorized attacks on alleged drug-running boats and orchestrated a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going to and leaving Venezuela.

Last month, Trump warned his campaign would “only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before.”  Secretary of State Marco Rubio had called Venezuela’s cooperation with narco-traffickers and terrorists a direct threat to U.S. national security.

In a social media post, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he was seeking a meeting of the UN Security Council and rejected “the aggression against the sovereignty of Venezuela and of Latin America.”

“Internal conflicts between peoples are resolved by those same peoples in peace,” Petro wrote.  “That is the principle of the self-determination of peoples, which forms the foundation of the United Nations system.”

At the press conference held late Saturday morning, Trump, who had long denied that the months-long buildup of forces in the Caribbean was aimed at ousting Maduro, said the United States would “run” Venezuela “for a period of time.”

“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,”

Reading from a statement initially, Trump said: “The illegitimate Maduro was the kingpin of a vast criminal network responsible for trafficking colossal amounts of deadly and illicit drugs into the United States,” Trump said.  “Maduro and his wife will soon face the full might of American justice and stand trial on American soil.”

But the president spent much of the press conference talking about the benefits for the American energy industry.

“We’ll run it properly.  We’ll run it professionally. We’ll have the greatest oil companies in the world going in and invest billions and billions of dollars and take out money, use that money in Venezuela,” Trump said.

Asked just how that will work, the president said, “It’s all being done right now.  We’re designating people.  We’re talking to people.”

“There’s going to be a team that’s working with the people of Venezuela to make sure that we have Venezuela right. Because for us to just leave, who’s going to take over?  I mean, there is nobody to take over.  You have a vice president [Delcy Rodriguez] who’s been appointed by Maduro, and right now she’s the vice president, and she’s, I guess, the president.”

“We’re not going to just do this with Maduro, then leave everybody else, leave and say, you know, let it go to hell.  If we just left, it has zero chance of ever coming back,” Trump told reporters.

Asked whether this would involve keeping U.S. troops in Venezuela, the president said, “Well, you know, they always say boots on the ground. So we’re not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to have them.  We had boots on the ground last night at a very high level, actually.  We’re not afraid of it. We don’t mind saying it. But we’re going to make sure that that country is run properly. We’re not doing this in vain. This is not, this is a very dangerous attack.  This is an attack that could have gone very, very badly.  Could have gone very badly. We could have lost a lot of people last night.  We could have lost a lot of dignity.  We could have lost a lot of equipment. The equipment is less important.  But we could have lost a lot.”

Congressional Democrats issued statements of condemnation, as well as from a handful of Republicans.

“Protecting democracy should not be done through illegal means,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-De., said in a Saturday statement.  “This military action is the next stage in President Trump’s incoherent and arguably illegal Venezuela operation. In recent briefings to Congress, senior administration officials said they were focused on combatting drug trafficking, not regime change, and made clear they had no plan for what would happen if Maduro was removed or overthrown.  This was clearly false, and furthermore, a military operation to capture and overthrow a president – even an illegitimate one – is an act of war that must be authorized by Congress.”

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a frequent Trump critic, said Saturday that “my main concern now is that Russia will use this to justify their illegal and barbaric military actions against Ukraine, or China to justify an invasion of Taiwan…dictators will try to exploit this to rationalize their selfish objectives.”

The administration did not notify Congress of the impending assault on Venezuela, Secretary of State Rubio said at the press conference.

“This is not the kind of mission you can pre-notify because it endangers the mission,” the secretary said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the “pretexts cited to justify such actions” were “unfounded.”

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said in a statement posted on X, “The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr. Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition.  Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected.  We call for restraint.”

At the press conference, one reporter said, “Mr. President, the U.S. has something of a mixed track record of ousting dictators without necessarily a plan for what comes afterwards.  Did that weigh on your decision?”

Trump responded: “Well, that’s where we had different presidents.  But with me, that’s not true.  With me, we’ve had a perfect track record of winning.”

The president, in an interview with the New York Post after the press conference Saturday, said U.S. troops won’t be stationed in Venezuela so long as Delcy Rodriguez “does what we want.”

Trump said that “we’ve spoken to her [Rodriguez] numerous times, and she understands, she understands.”

[Trump told The Atlantic: “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.”]

Trump told The Post that he is not considering additional military action against Cuba, Venezuela’s longtime ally.

“No, Cuba is going to fall of its own volition. Cuba is doing very poorly,” Trump said.

Moments earlier, Sec. of State Rubio said that “if I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned at least a little bit” – adding uncertainty about the future of U.S. policy toward the communist island.

“Cuba was always very reliant on Venezuela. That’s where they got their money, and they protected Venezuela, but that didn’t work out too well in this case,” Trump told The Post.

Back to Delcy Rodriguez, despite the president’s measured endorsement, she rejected the notion she would work together with the Trump administration, calling Maduro the “only” leader Venezuela needs while saying that the country was “ready to defend” its oil reserves from the U.S.

Following Rodriguez’s fiery speech, Sec. of State Rubio said the Maduro loyalist cannot serve as Venezuela’s interim leader and vowed that the U.S. would not support her administration.

Kind of shockingly, at the Saturday press conference, Trump said that leading opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, is ill-suited to replace Maduro.

It would be very tough for her to be the leader.  “She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country.  She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect,” he said.

Just a really stupid thing to say, though the administration insists she isn’t ready.  OK, if that’s the case, there was still zero reason to diss her!

Secretary Rubio, in a flurry of Sunday morning TV appearances, signaled the U.S. wasn’t planning to occupy Venezuela but use its ongoing oil quarantine of sanctioned tankers as leverage.

“And so that’s the sort of control the president is pointing to when he says that,” Rubio said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “We continue with that quarantine, and we expect to see that there will be changes, not just in the way the oil industry is run for the benefit of the people, but also so that they stop the drug trafficking.”

At least 16 sanctioned oil tankers were reportedly defying Trump’s naval blockade “using fake ship names and misrepresenting their positions” via GPS spoofing, the New York Times reported.

As the week unfolded, Republicans were mostly supportive of the operation to capture Maduro, but Trump’s seeming openness to a more extensive campaign within Venezuela is farther than many want to go.  As in the possibility of putting U.S. boots on the ground is receiving a frosty reception from conservatives, who warn Trump is risking a key campaign promise of keeping the country out of foreign conflicts.

Speaking to NBC News Monday, Trump listed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth alongside Sec. of State Rubio, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, and Vice President JD Vance as comprising the group that is leading U.S. involvement in Venezuela.

Who is ultimately in charge? “Me,” Trump replied.  He also repeated his goal of convincing American oil firms to somehow rebuild Venezuela’s petroleum industry and infrastructure.

“A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue,” Trump said.  That process he speculated, could be complete in 18 months.

Cuba announced 32 of its citizens had been killed in the U.S. attacks, including military or intelligence personnel – a rare public signal of Cuba’s importance to Venezuela and the Maduro government.

President Miguel Diaz-Canel of Cuba said the casualties were personnel from the country’s armed forces or its interior ministry who were on a mission at the request of Venezuela, according to Cuban state media.

Venezuela said the preliminary death count in the attacks was 80 people, a figure by midweek the U.S. government was largely confirming, calling it about 75.  About a half-dozen U.S. troops were injured in the operation, with some suffering gunshot wounds in the firefight at Maduro’s compound.

Colombian President Petro vowed to take up arms against Trump’s threat against his country in a speech on Monday.*

Petro, an ex-guerrilla leader, also stressed that his forces have been tasked with defending him and all Colombian cities from foreign forces, with orders given to shoot “the invader.”

Colombia does have the best, or most professional, army in Latin America.

*But Wednesday evening, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“It was a Great Honor to speak with the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, who called to explain the situation of drugs and other disagreements that we have had. I appreciated his call and tone, and look forward to meeting him in the near future.  Arrangements are being made between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Foreign Minister of Colombia. The meeting will take place in the White House in Washington, D.C.”

Administration officials briefed top House and Senate lawmakers from both parties on Monday night, revealing Trump has approved Vice President Rodriguez to serve as the country’s leader for now.  She has been formally appointed the interim president.

Following the briefing, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) denied the U.S. is at war with Venezuela, saying armed forces aren’t occupying the country.  He and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) had earlier argued that the operation didn’t require prior authorization from Congress.

Trump downplayed the likelihood of Venezuelan opposition leader Machado becoming the leader of the country, saying she “doesn’t have the support” of the people.

U.S. intelligence had also determined that the opposition would have trouble leading the country.

Monday, Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty in federal court in New York to charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy and two weapons counts.

“I am innocent. I am not guilty.  I am a decent man. I am still president of my country,” Maduro said through an interpreter.

His lawyer, Barry Pollack, said Maduro will challenge the legitimacy of his “military abduction,” while Maduro said he was “kidnapped.”

Venezuela’s government has been reasserting itself after the capture of Maduro, as the government continued to churn inside the presidential palace.  Venezuela’s counterintelligence officials have been patrolling the streets of Caracas.  At least 13 journalists were arrested, but then released on Monday.

Tuesday, there was a massive protest in Caracas in support of the regime and demanding Maduro’s release from the U.S., as acting President Rodriguez declared that the country remained under the control of officials who rose to power under Maduro’s authoritarian regime – directly contradicting President Trump.  “The government of Venezuela runs our country,” Rodriguez said.  “No one else.  There is no external agent governing Venezuela.”

Overnight Tuesday, President Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current prices.

“I am pleased to announced that the interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately.  It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. intended to maintain significant control over Venezuela’s oil industry, including by overseeing the sale of the country’s production “indefinitely.”

“Going forward we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace,” Wright said an energy conference.

Sec. Wright said the administration was in “active dialogue” with Venezuela’s leadership as well as U.S. oil giants that have operated in the country.

Executives from some of the largest Western oil producers are meeting with Trump at the White House on Friday afternoon.  The president’s message will be: “Do it for our country,” which could be a hard sell given the massive investments for questionable benefits.

Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil corporation operating in Venezuela.

Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA said it is in negotiations with the U.S. government.

Who eventually leads Venezuela is also seen as critical to whether the companies go in.  While Trump has cast doubt on the ability of opposition leader Machado to lead, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) told NewsNation that he backs her to become Venezuela’s next president.

Western oil companies have been fighting to recoup tens of billions of dollars that they say Venezuela owes them for being forced out of the country murder Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez.  Oil execs and experts have said that until those debts are resolved these companies will be very reluctant to invest more in the country.

Wednesday, the U.S. seized a pair of sanctioned tankers transporting oil, including a Russian-flagged tanker that had been tracked for weeks, and was finally seized by the Coast Guard and special forces somewhere in the North Atlantic waters between Iceland and Scotland.

It appeared to be the first time in recent memory that the U.S. military has attempted to seize a Russian-flagged vessel, Reuters reported.  It was the third interception of a sanctions-evading tanker since December, Wednesday’s other seizure a tanker in the Caribbean that had also sought to evade the blockade established by the U.S.

We then learned a fifth oil tanker was boarded by the U.S. Coast Guard early Friday morning in the Caribbean.  The tanker was the Olina, a ship previously named the Minerva M, that was sanctioned by the U.S. for its role in transporting Russian oil.

In an interview with the New York Times Wednesday evening, Trump said that he expected the United States would be running Venezuela and extracting oil from its huge reserves for years, and insisted that the interim government of the country is “giving us everything that we feel is necessary.”

“We will rebuild it in a very profitable way,” Trump said.  “We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil.  We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela, which they desperately need.”

During the interview, Trump did not give a precise time range for how long the United States would remain Venezuela’s political overlord.  Would it be three months? Six months? A year?  Longer?

“I would say much longer,” the president replied.

Thursday, the Senate advanced a resolution that would limit President Trump’s ability to conduct further attacks against Venezuela, sounding a note of disapproval for his expanding ambitions in the Western Hemisphere.

Democrats and five Republicans voted to advance the war powers resolution on a 52-47 vote and ensure a vote next week on final passage. It has virtually no chance of becoming law because Trump would have to sign it if it were to pass the Republican-controlled House.  Still, it was a significant gesture that showed unease among some Republicans after the seizure of Maduro.

The five Republicans to vote with the Democrats – Josh Hawley (Mo.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Susan Collins (Me.) and Todd Young (Ind.) – were then blasted, of course, by President Trump on Truth Social.

Trump revealed Thursday that he expects to meet with Maria Corina Machado next week – and said it would be a “great honor” if she gives him her Nobel Prize.

“I understand she’s coming in next week sometime, and I look forward to saying hello to her,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity, when asked if he plans to meet with Machado.

Early Friday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Venezuela is releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of ‘Seeking Peace.’  This is a very important and smart gesture. The U.S.A. and Venezuela are working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure.  Because of this cooperation, I have cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed, however, all ships will stay in place for safety and security purposes.  At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House.  Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”

$100 Billion?  Ah, I don’t think so.

***I’m writing this at 3:40 PM Friday…right before posting. I’ve been watching the Trump meeting with the oil execs…it is an unmitigated disaster for him…Trump having no freakin’ idea that Conoco lost $12 billion in Venezuela….expropriated, for one, and Exxon Mobil made it very clear, they won’t spend more than a few $million, if that, until they have multiple guarantees… Trump looked like a total fool!!!

Some opinion…all sides….

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro early Saturday is an act of hemispheric hygiene against a dictator who spread mayhem far and wide.  Whether he admits it or not, Mr. Trump is now in the business of regime change that he’ll have to make a success.

“The stunning nighttime raid is the culmination of a showdown that was building for months as Mr. Trump sent a naval flotilla to the Caribbean.  Mr. Maduro resisted U.S. offers to leave peacefully, and Mr. Trump followed through on his threat and ousted the despot.  The U.S. President had to act or lose credibility with the world after choosing the face-off.  Pulling it off without American casualties is remarkable….

“(Maduro’s) damage goes well beyond the drug trade. His socialist and authoritarian policies burdened the region with millions of refugees. He flooded the U.S. with migrants in an effort to sow political discord.

“The dictator was also part of the axis of U.S. adversaries that includes Russia, China, Cuba and Iran.  All were helping to keep Mr. Maduro in power.  His capture is a demonstration of Mr. Trump’s declaration to keep America’s enemies from spreading chaos in the Western Hemisphere.  It’s the ‘Trump corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.

“All of this makes the military action justified, despite the cries from the left that it is illegal under international law.  Mr. Maduro stole last year’s presidential election after he lost in a rout. He barred popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from the ballot, and the candidate who took her place won and then went into exile to avoid arrest.  The critics want to praise Ms. Machado’s courage while doing nothing to help the Venezuelan people.

“As for gripes that Mr. Trump is acting without Congressional approval, the Constitution gives broad leeway to executive action on national security.  George H.W. Bush deposed dictator Manuel Noriega in Panama in 1989 without a vote in Congress.  Mr. Maduro is a greater threat than Noriega, and Venezuela is at least as important to U.S. security.  Democrats are criticizing Mr. Trump so they can pounce if the operation runs into trouble.

“All of which raises the stakes for what comes next.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed Saturday that this was at core a ‘law enforcement’ operation to arrest the Maduros, which sounds like a dodge to avoid saying this is about regime change or a U.S. occupation.  But when Mr. Trump says ‘we are going to run the country now,’ this means an occupation that requires nation rebuilding for some duration….

“(And) it is odd that Mr. Trump was so dismissive of Ms. Machado in his Saturday press conference.  He said she lacks the ‘respect’ or support of the people of Venezuela, but who else has more?  She risked her life to challenge Mr. Maduro, organized and rallied the opposition to win an election, and bravely stayed in Venezuela where she risked arrest or worse.

“Mr. Trump also talked about ‘the oil’ far too much, which sends a message that the U.S. purpose is largely mercenary.  Venezuela will benefit if U.S. oil companies modernize the country’s decrepit oil production facilities.  But the U.S. doesn’t need Venezuelan oil.

“Sooner rather than later, Venezuela needs another election. The greatest benefit of a democratic, pro-America Venezuela is what it means for freedom and stability in the region.  The left has had a 20-year heyday in the Americas that has done great harm to its people and allowed deep inroads by China.  A reversal is under way in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia, and a right turn in Venezuela would continue the hopeful trend.

“Mr. Trump’s willingness to depose Mr. Maduro is also another step in the revival of U.S. deterrence from its collapse under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The overall message to our adversaries is salutary.  If Mr. Trump can succeed in nation building in Venezuela, the Castro coterie in Cuba may want to start looking for some other place to live.”

George F. Will / Washington Post

“Meanwhile, the Trump administration must devise justifications for the Venezuelan intervention without employing categories by which Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping can give a patina of faux legality to forcibly ending nearby regimes they dislike.  The Trump administration’s incantations of its newly minted and nonsensical phrase ‘narco-terrorism’ will not suffice.

“Andrew C. McCarthy, the conservative lawyer who prosecuted terrorists convicted of the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, says this phrase ‘has no standing as a legal term – no significance in the extensive bodies of federal law defining narcotics trafficking and terrorism.’

“As Bishop Joseph Butler (1692-1752) said, ‘Everything is what it is, and not another thing.’  Narcotics trafficking is a serious crime. It is not a terrorist activity.  Neither is the self-‘poisoning’ of Americans who ingest drugs.

“So, the administration must improvise post facto rationalizations for the forcible regime change in Venezuela, rationalizations harmonious with the president’s recent pardoning of Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former Honduran president convicted in a U.S. court of shipping here more than 400 tons of cocaine.  ‘The Honduran regime,’ McCarthy writes in National Review, ‘figures prominently in the indictment of Maduro brought by the first Trump administration.’  Maduro’s lawyers will have fun with this.

“And perhaps with this: When Theodore Roosevelt asked Attorney General Philander Knox to concoct a legal justification for the unsavory U.S. measures that enabled construction of the Panama Canal, Knox replied, ‘Oh, Mr. President, do not let so great an achievement suffer from any taint of legality.’”

Editorial / Washington Post

“Millions of people around the world, most of all in Venezuela, are celebrating the downfall of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.  President Donald Trump’s decision to capture him on Saturday was one of the boldest moves a president has made in years, and the operation was an unquestionable tactical success.  The next step is ensuring that this triumph sets Venezuela up for stability and prosperity rather than more of the same, or worse.

“What happened in Caracas was a clear reminder that America’s military, intelligence and cyber capabilities are second to none.  More than 150 aircraft supported the Army’s Delta force in capturing Maduro and his wife… There were no American deaths, although some U.S. service members were injured.

“This is a major victory for American interests.  Just hours before, supportive Chinese officials held a chummy meeting with Maduro, who had also been propped up by Russia, Cuba and Iran.  No doubt millions of Venezuelans will remember who backed their oppressor and who effected his removal.  But the end of Maduro will be a failure if it doesn’t also corrode the influence of American adversaries in this hemisphere.

“Maduro’s removal sends an important message to tin-pot dictators in Latin America and the world: Trump follows through.  President Joe Biden offered sanctions relief to Venezuela, and Maduro responded to that show of weakness by stealing an election….

“The natural question is what comes next.  Trump said that ‘we are going to run the country now’ but didn’t provide much clarity.  Doing so will be critical to winning broader support for more involvement going forward.

“The ideal outcome would be for Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of the Venezuelan opposition, to take power.  Her Freedom Manifesto – influenced heavily by America’s Constitution – is the best outline for Venezuela’s future. The details would be tricky, but she would easily win a free and fair election.

“Trump foolishly claimed during a Saturday afternoon news conference that Machado doesn’t have respect within her country, but does he think Maduro’s handpicked vice president does?  Rubio has spoken with her, and Trump signaled that they expect Maduro’s No. 2 to be pliant to U.S. demands, especially relating to opening oil fields for U.S. companies.  The president often shoots from his hip in these press conferences and would be wise to reconsider.  Empowering a Maduro flunky would be an unforced error with catastrophic consequences….

“With tough decisions coming and many obstacles ahead, it’s fair to look forward.  Yet it’s also fair to celebrate.  For years, Maduro was a symbol of the false warmth of Latin American collectivism. Now he should spend the rest of his life in a humane American prison. His downfall is good news.”

Tom Nichols / The Atlantic

“President Donald Trump has launched not a splendid little war, but perhaps a splendid little operation in Venezuela.  He has captured a dictator and removed him from power.  So far, Trump seems to have executed a bad idea well: The military operation, dubbed ‘Operation Absolute Resolve,’ seems to have been flawless.  The strategic wisdom, however, is deeply questionable. And the legal basis, as offered by the president and his team, is absurd. Some Americans, and some U.S allies, are appalled.

“Russia and China claim to be appalled, too, but to use a classic diplomatic expression, the traders in Beijing and Moscow should be invited, with all due respect, to shut their traps.

“ ‘We firmly call on the U.S. leadership to reconsider their position,’ the Russian foreign ministry said this morning, ‘and release the lawfully elected president of a sovereign country and his wife.’ The Russians then shamelessly turned all the sanctimony knobs to supernova levels: ‘Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own future without destructive external interference, particularly of a military nature.’

“You don’t say.  Perhaps we might generalize that principle to other nations, such as Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces are murdering people every week – in part because the Russians failed to kill or capture the ‘lawfully elected president of a sovereign country’ four years ago.

“The Chinese, too, are absolutely shocked that a great power is menacing a small neighbor and inflicting regime change by military force.  China, the foreign ministry in Beijing said, ‘is deeply shocked’ – at least it wasn’t shocked and stunned – ‘and strongly condemns the use of force by the U.S. against a sovereign country and the use of force against the president of a country.’

“Noble words. And then, like the Russians, the Chinese dared the world to laugh out loud: ‘China firmly opposes such hegemonic behavior by the U.S., which seriously violates international law, violates Venezuela’s sovereignty, and threatens peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean. We urge the U.S. to abide by international law and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.’

“Only two days ago, however, China engaged in military exercises that included surrounding Taiwan and then firing missiles in the waters around the island.  A giant nation regularly running war games aimed at invading its tiny neighbor – and threatening Japan, for good measure – counts as ‘hegemonic behavior’ that threatens the ‘peace and security’ of a region, and China knows it.

“The more stinging irony here is that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping probably approved these public statements with a chuckle.  The United States has now given Russia, China, and anyone else who wants to give it a try a road map for invading countries and capturing leaders who displease them, with a lawlessness that by comparison makes the 2003 invasion of Iraq seem as lawyered up as a bank merger.

“Let us all stipulate that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is a bad guy.  He deserved to be driven from power, perhaps with American help….

“(But) Trump and his team didn’t even try creating a coalition either at home or abroad.  By simply landing troops in another nation and decapitating its leadership, Trump has done Russia and China a great service by trashing, yet again, guardrails that limit other nations from running amok. International law? Pointless. The United Nations? Never heard of it.  The Congress of the United States? Well, they’re good folks, but according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, they couldn’t be told ahead of time, for security reasons.  (He said this while standing next to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, a fountain of security violations.)  Putin and Xi must have watched Trump’s presser while nodding and taking notes.

“Hypocrisy, the French nobleman Francois de La Rochefoucauld once said, is the tribute vice pays to virtue.  In this case, there is little virtue to be found; the Russian and Chinese statements are vice paying tribute to vice.  They already know that the president of the United States is helping to clear the way for their adventures – and they should keep their faux outrage to themselves.”

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson, who has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said on Saturday that further rate cuts could be some way off while officials take stock of the economy’s performance after an active campaign of easing last year.

“I see inflation moderating, the labor market stabilizing and growth coming in around 2 percent this year,” Paulson said in the text of a speech in Philly.  “If all of that happens, then some modest further adjustments to the funds rate would likely be appropriate later in the year.”

In her remarks, Paulson said she had “cautious optimism on inflation” and a desire for “greater clarity on what is pushing growth up and employment down.”

“I see a decent chance that we will end the year with inflation that is close to 2% on a run-rate basis” as tariff-related price adjustments are completed, the official said.

On the hiring front, “While the labor market is clearly bending, it is not breaking,” Paulson said.  She added, “I see the broad deceleration in the labor market as stemming from both supply and demand factors” and the hiring situation merits close attention as the year moves forward.

In remarks to the Economic Club of Minnesota Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve needs to do its part to boost investment in the economy and that interest rates should be substantially lower.

“The White House can only do so much; at a certain point, the Federal Reserve must also do its part to spur investment.  I think that we are still substantially above the neutral rate, and I think that we should not be in restrictionary mode.”

Bessent said President Trump could announce his choice for next Fed Chair either right before or after he heads to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21.

As for the economic data this week, we had a big jobs report today for December and American employers added a seasonally adjusted 50,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, the Labor Department reported.

That was a little below consensus of 55,000 and was weaker than the revised 56,000 jobs added in November.

October’s job losses were revised even lower in Friday’s report, to a decline of 173,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, 3.8% year-over-year.

[President Trump receives the jobs report the evening before and he carelessly (giving him the benefit of the doubt), tweeted out a chart at 8:20 PM that gave those reading it closely the exact figure on the number of jobs about to be reported almost exactly 12 hours later.]

So, no huge surprises to move the markets, plus the Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on the tariffs as many expected today.

The December ISM manufacturing reading was 47.9 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), while the service sector figure was a strong 54.4.

And then we had the trade figures for October, the deficit narrowing sharply to $29.4 billion, the smallest gap since June 2009, down from a revised $48.1 billion in September and well below forecasts of a $58.1 billion shortfall.

Imports declined to a 21-month low of $331.4 billion, while exports rose 2.6% to a record $302 billion.

Remember, imports are a negative in calculating GDP, exports are a positive.  But the recent swings are driven to a great extent by flows in gold and precious metals (as well as pharmaceuticals), and the ongoing implementation of tariffs and the timing of same.  To just look at the headline numbers isn’t really telling the full story.  It will take time for this all to even out.  For now, there are large distortions in the data…just a fact.

Recall, official GDP fell 0.6% in the first quarter of last year as companies rushed to import goods ahead of the expected announcement by President Trump of significant tariffs, and that was a big negative in the calculation.

We also had a strong reading on productivity in the third quarter, up 4.9%, accelerating from an upwardly revised 4.1% rise in Q2 and surpassing market forecasts of 3%.

Next week we get inflation data and retail sales figures, among other items.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth zoomed to 5.1% this week, largely because of the distortions in the trade data.  Lots more Q4 data to come.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 6.16%.  The Trump administration announced a program for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities in an attempt to lower mortgage rates.  We’ll see how it plays out.

Europe and Asia

We had the December service sector PMIs for the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, and the Eurozone Composite reading (manufacturing figures released last week) was 51.5, a 3-month low.  The service sector PMI was 52.4, also a 3-month low.

Individual service sector PMIs….

Germany 52.7, France 50.1, Italy 51.5, Spain 57.1, Ireland 54.8.

A flash estimate of December inflation for the euro area was 2.0%, down from 2.1% in November.  Ex-food and energy it was 2.3% [Eurostat].

Headline inflation….

Germany 2.0%, France 0.7%, Italy 1.2%, Spain 3.0%, Netherlands 2.5%, Ireland 2.7%.

November retail trade in the EA21 was 0.2% compared with October, up 2.3% year-over-year. [Eurostat]

Industrial producer prices for November rose 0.5% over October, but were down 1.7% from a year ago. [Eurostat]

And the euro area unemployment rate for November was 6.3%, down from 6.4% in October. [Eurostat]

Germany 3.8%, France 7.7%, Italy 5.7%, Spain 10.4%, Netherlands 4.0%, Ireland 4.9%.

Turning to Asia…China’s private RatingDog (formerly Caixin) service sector reading for December was 52.0.

December inflation rose 0.8% year-over-year vs. 0.7% prior.

Producer prices in the month fell 1.9% vs. -2.2% in November.

In Japan, the manufacturing PMI for December was 50.0, with the services reading 51.6.

November household spending rose 2.9% year-over-year, much better than expected.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts.

The next BOJ meeting is Jan. 22-23.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) briefly hit a 27-year high of 2.125% on Monday, before finishing the week at 2.08%

Street Bytes

—The first full week of 2026 was a good one for equities, the Dow Jones finishing the week at an all-time high, 49504, up 2.3%; the S&P 500 also hitting a high today of 6944, up 1.6%, and the Nasdaq just shy of its high, a gain of 1.9%.

Next week, Big Bank earnings to kick the season off.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.58%  2-yr. 3.54%  10-yr. 4.17%  30-yr. 4.82%

The yield on the 2-year, significantly, rose six basis points this week, the 2-year the most sensitive to Fed actions and the feeling being that after the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% today, there is no reason to cut rates further in the short term.

–Oil, Part II…President Trump said U.S. oil companies will spend billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure after the military operation that captured Nicolas Maduro.

The president said he spoke with oil companies before and after Maduro’s capture, and they “want to go in so badly,” though it wasn’t clear exactly who Trump spoke to.

The kind of oil industry reconstruction touted by Trump would be almost without precedent, and Trump left many crucial questions unanswered.  He didn’t commit to sending U.S. troops to aid in the transition, saying only that the U.S. would ensure oil infrastructure was protected and improved.

But then you have issues like housing and whether the new government in Caracas will even honor contracts.

It’s unclear how willing oil giants like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, to state the big three in the U.S. capable of such ventures, are to pour substantial sums of money without established legal and fiscal rules.  Chevron is the only company currently operating in Venezuela under a special license from the U.S.

And analysts and traders say it would easily take years for critical infrastructure to be fully repaired and for oil to freely flow out of Venezuela, which currently accounts for less than 1% of global supplies even though it has the world’s largest reserves*.

*According to the Venezuelan government, many now saying such a statement could be suspect, i.e., bogus.

Rystad Energy estimates it would cost around $53 billion over 15 years just to keep Venezuela’s crude oil production flat at 1.1 million barrels a day.  That’s well within the capability of U.S. oil majors but they will want guarantees from the Trump administration to go further.

President Trump has repeatedly said he prizes low oil and gasoline prices, as he seeks to tame inflation, but the oil companies don’t like it…and it’s not good for jobs in the energy sector if oil, for example, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, continues to trade well below $70…currently $58.

—Copper prices have been hitting record highs, a la gold and silver, the rally underpinned by a rush to ship metal to the U.S., with the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Trump, which has spurred warnings that the rest of the world could run short of copper and inspired bullish investors, already attracted to the metal thanks to its uses in everything from data centers to electric-vehicle batteries.

—Nvidia Corp. said it has seen strong demand from customers in China for the H200 chip that the Trump administration has said it will consider letting the chipmaker ship to that country.

License applications have been submitted and the government is deciding what it wants to do with them, CFO Colette Kress told analysts Monday during a meeting at the CES trade show in Las Vegas.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described the demand as strong.

Regardless of the level of license approval, Kress said, Nvidia has enough supply to serve customers in the Asian nation without impacting the company’s ability to ship to customers elsewhere in the world.

Nvidia would also need China’s government to allow companies in the country to purchase and use the American products.  Beijing previously discouraged government agencies and companies there from using an earlier, less powerful design, called H20.

But Bloomberg reported Thursday that China plans to approve some imports of the H200 as soon as this quarter.

However, the H200 chip will be barred from the military, sensitive government agencies, critical infrastructure and state-owned enterprises due to national security concerns, Chinese officials said.

Even with the qualifications, this represents a major win for Nvidia.

Separately, Jensen Huang said Nvidia’s newest generation AI hardware platform Vera Rubin was in “full production.”

“Vera Rubin is designed to address this fundamental challenge that we have. The amount of computation necessary for AI is skyrocketing,” he said.  “Models are increasing by a factor of ten in order of magnitude every single year.”

The Vera Rubin AI server will also feature a more modular, cable-free design that enables faster assembly and easier servicing compared to the current Blackwell model.

Rubin-based products will be available for sale from the company’s partners in the second half of the year.

While Nvidia still dominates the market for training AI models, it faces far more competition – from traditional rival such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which introduced a rival advanced chip this week, and Alphabet’s Google – in delivering the fruits of those models to hundreds of millions of users of chatbots and other technologies.

–Tuesday, shares in Sandisk soared more than 37% to $349.63 to a new record as investors continued to pour money into the flash memory company.

It wasn’t clear exactly what sparked the jump, though Nvidia’s keynote at the CES conference Monday night likely was the main driver, as Nvidia discussed the new memory storage platform for its Rubin chip.

Sandisk, a spinoff from Western Digital, makes solid state drives, or SSDs.  And the Nvidia announcement means more SSD demand for the new AI infrastructure, which implies tighter supply, which further boosts Sandisk’s pricing. [Western Digital shares also hit a record high Tuesday.]

—TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, on Friday reported a 20.45% increase in fourth-quarter revenue from a year earlier, beating expectations, as demand for the company’s products leapt in response to surging interest in AI applications.

The company, whose customers include Nvidia and Apple, said revenue for Q4 was $33.11 billion, with full earnings coming out on Jan. 15, when TSMC will provide updated guidance for the current quarter and full year.

Taiwan’s Foxconn, the world’s largest contract electronics maker and Nvidia’s biggest server maker, also reported bumper sales on Monday, logging $82.80 billion for the fourth quarter.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025

1/8…114 percent of 2025
1/7…99
1/6…87
1/5…97
1/4…111
1/3…102
1/2…99
1/1…101

There were 600+ flights daily cancelled from Sunday through Wednesday at Amsterdam’s Schiphol International Airport, one of Europe’s largest, due to severe winter weather.

Over the weekend, you saw the chaos that ensued in the Caribbean after the U.S. move against Nicolas Maduro as airspace was closed.  Saturday, Puerto Rico had to cancel 300 flights, for one.

—General Motors and several rivals reported year-end sales slumps, an ominous sign that U.S. auto sales will slow this year as consumers push back on higher prices.

GM, the biggest automaker in the U.S. by sales and a bellwether for the U.S. industry, said Monday that sales fell 7% in the final quarter of 2025.  Honda, Hyundai, Mazda and Nissan also said on Monday that their U.S. sales fell toward the end of the year.

The slowdown is expected to extend into this year, with analysts and automakers predicting U.S. annual sales will fall in 2026 following three straight years of gains as belt-tightening American car buyers collide with tariff costs that companies probably won’t keep absorbing.

Toyota, which notched an 8% increase in U.S. sales during the fourth quarter, said they are preparing for a bruising year ahead.

Toyota was able to maintain sales momentum at the end of last year by absorbing the costs of U.S. tariffs, and because buyers gravitated toward the company’s entry-level models like the Corolla sedan.  Yet executives said companies won’t be able to keep footing the bill for tariffs.

“Prices are going to go up for us and for our competitors,” David Christ, Toyota’s U.S. sales chief, said on a call with reporters.

Overall U.S. auto sales rose about 2% from 2024, to about 16.3 million, according to J.D. Power.

For 2025, GM said total sales were up 6%.  Nearly a quarter of its volume represented vehicles that start under $30,000, such as the popular Chevrolet Trax compact crossover.

Yet the reticence from car buyers toward the end of 2025 portends a bumpy 2026 marked by uncertainty around tariffs and the broader economy.

“What we saw in 2025 is going to bleed into 2026,” said Randy Parker, chief executive of Hyundai Motor America, which reported sales slid 1% in the fourth quarter.  “The way consumers’ mindsets are right now, we’re still dealing with inflation, with negative consumer sentiment.”

Thursday night, GM then announced it would book a $6 billion charge on its fast-shrinking, money-losing electric-vehicle business, the latest reckoning tied to the collapse of EVs in the U.S.

The company last year recorded a $1.6 billion charge from its EV pullback and warned at the time that more was coming.

Despite growing EV sales by nearly 50% last year, the vehicles accounted for only about 6% of GM’s annual sales.

–Meanwhile, Ford Motor on Tuesday reported December and fourth-quarter sales and it bucked the trend, with Ford selling about 205,000 cars in the U.S. in December, up 7% from the year-earlier period.  Quarterly sales of 545,216 rose 3%.

Electric vehicle sales in the quarter totaled 14,513 vehicles, down 52% from a year earlier, pressured by the September expiration of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit. Hybrid sales of 55,374 rose 18%, however.

For the full year, Ford sold 2.2 million cars in the U.S., up 6%.  It’s the best annual performance since 2019.

Ford generated about $10.5 billion in operating profit in 2024.  It’s expected to report about $6.5 billion in 2025, and Wall Street projects $8.8 billion for 2026, which could be difficult given the overall outlook for the car industry this year.

—Anthropic, the developer of the chatbot Claude, plans to raise $10 billion at a valuation of $350 billion before the new investment, according to people familiar with the matter, nearly doubling its valuation from four months ago.

GIC, Singapore’s sovereign-wealth fund, and Coatue Management plan to lead the new financing, according to reports.  The funding round, the third megadeal in the past year, follows a $13 billion investment in September that valued the company at $183 billion.

The new capital comes in addition to the up to $15 billion that Nvidia and Microsoft plan to invest in the OpenAI competitor, one of the people said.

Anthropic has raised tens of billions to date and is expected to go public this year.  It was founded in 2021 by Dario Amodei, a former Google researcher and OpenAI alum, and Daniela Amodei.  It expects to break even for the first time in 2028, putting it on track to turn a profit quicker than OpenAI, the Wall Street Journal has reported.

OpenAI, the developer behind ChatGPT, is also in talks to raise additional capital.  The company is aiming to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of $750 billion before the new investment, the Journal has reported.

—JPMorgan Chase’s asset-management unit, among the world’s largest investment firms with more than $7 trillion in client assets, is cutting all ties with proxy advisory firms effective immediately, amping up pressure on an industry that recently has come into the Trump administration’s crosshairs.

This coming proxy season, JPM will start using an internal artificial-intelligence-powered platform it is calling Proxy IQ to assist on U.S. company votes, according to a memo seen by the Wall Street Journal.

The firms, such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services, offer research, advice, and voting infrastructure to investment firms that need to cast thousands of shareholder votes each year.

—President Trump on Truth Social, Wednesday:

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream.  It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans.  It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it.  People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further Housing and Affordability proposals, and more, at my speech in Davos in two weeks.”

Companies with a stake in this business, including BlackRock, fell after this post, but this impacts, depending on your source, perhaps 3% to 6% of the home market, and the actual impact on prices will likely be minimal.

—And President Trump posted Wednesday afternoon as well:

“All United States Defense Contractors, and the Defense Industry as a whole, BEWARE: While we make the best Military Equipment in the World (No other Country is even close!), Defense Contractors are currently issuing massive Dividends to their Shareholders and massive Stock Buybacks, at the expense and detriment of investing in Plants and Equipment. This situation will not longer be allowed or tolerated!”

Trump went on in his lengthy post to talk of exorbitant CEO compensation and he offered “no Executive should be allowed to make in excess of $5 Million Dollars which, as high as it sounds, is a mere fraction of what they are making now.”  He said maintenance and repair of equipment is too slow, and he “will not permit Dividends or Stock Buybacks for Defense Companies until such time as these problems are rectified…MILITARY EQUIPMENT IS NOT BEING MADE FAST ENOUGH!”

So defense shares fell hard as well.

But then after the market closed, Trump posted in part:

“After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars….”

So defense shares rallied back.  Granted, Trump’s economic reasoning behind the increase in the rest of the post was deeply flawed, and this would add greatly to the debt, not reduce it as he postulated, and put further pressure on the long end of the yield curve, but we do need to spend a helluva lot more on defense.

—Alcohol makers have been experiencing tough times lately.  Spirits, wine and beer producers are feeling the pinch as consumers drink less. For Constellation Brands, a rebound will depend on the spending power of Hispanic consumers.

The U.S. distributor of Corona and Modelo beers then saw its shares rise Wednesday after the market close as third-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates.

For the three months ended in November, Constellation’s net sales declined 10% from a year ago to $2.22 billion, while diluted earnings came in at $2.88 per share, down 15% from a year ago.  But analysts were at $2.16bn in net sales and EPS of $2.64.

Beer sales fell by 1% from a year ago, while sales for wine and spirits declined 51% – partly because the company has sold some of its mainstream wine brands to focus more on higher-end brands with richer margins.

Despite weaker sales and earnings, the results appear more hopeful than the previous quarter, when beer sales slid 7% from a year ago and wine and spirts sales were shaved by 65%.

Still, Constellation again lowered its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast after steep downward revisions last year.

The company has expanded into newer, quicker-growth categories, including low-alcohol products like hard seltzers and nonalcoholic beverages such as Hiyo, a tonic drink infused with botanical and functional ingredients.  Those businesses remain small, however, and their growth hasn’t been enough to offset weakness in beer and wine.

But the Soccer World Cup this summer could boost sales.  Goaaaalllllll!!!!

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: As Ukraine peace talks have stretched on for nearly a year, through fits and spurts and dozens of rounds, President Volodymyr Zelensky has accentuated the positive. The talks are now “90 percent complete,” he said.  Ukraine works every minute to end the war, he insisted.

But in recent days, with the question mark of Russia’s willingness to accept any deal still hanging over the negotiations, Zelensky has made some of his most skeptical comments in months.  Ukraine, he said, is simultaneously talking and preparing for the war to rage on.

“I do not want and will not wait another six months hoping that maybe it will work,” Zelensky told journalists in Kyiv over the weekend.  “There are two paths: The first priority is ending the war, the second is being prepared for negative steps by Russia – for its unwillingness to end the war.”

On Tuesday, European leaders held a summit in Paris focused on commitments to guarantee Ukraine’s postwar security. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a scheduled appearance amid the ouster of Nicolas Maduro and the aftermath, which risked a diplomatic and military distraction from the American-led peace efforts in Ukraine.

In place of Rubio, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as well as America’s top general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, who a day earlier fleshed out details of security guarantees with European army chiefs, attended.

After the summit, Witkoff said President Trump “strongly stands behind security protocols.”

“Those security protocols are meant to…deter any attacks, any further attacks in Ukraine, and…if there are any attacks, they’re meant to defend, and they will do both.  They are as strong as anyone has ever seen,” he said at a joint news conference with the French, German, British and Ukrainian leaders.

Kushner said that if Ukrainians were to make a final deal “they have to know that after a deal they are secure, they have, obviously, a robust deterrence, and there’s real backstops to make sure that this will not happen again.”

President Zelensky, writing on Telegram after the meeting, said the agreements were “a signal of how seriously Europe and the entire coalition of the willing are ready to work for real security.”

But he added that it remained to be determined how the monitoring would work and how the Ukrainian army would be supported and financed.

He thanked the United States “for its readiness to be a backstop in all areas – security guarantees, monitoring a ceasefire and rebuilding.”

However, the statement was not explicitly endorsed by the United States and details of a U.S. role were watered down from an earlier draft, notably removing language that outlined the use of U.S. capabilities to support a multinational force in Ukraine.

–Last weekend, President Zelensky announced a shake-up of his national security leadership on Friday, saying he planned to replace his defense minister and had named the head of the country’s military intelligence as his new chief of staff.

In an address, Zelensky said that a “substantial overhaul” was underway to make Ukraine “more resilient.”

Zelensky said he had asked Mykhailo Federov, a vice prime minister and the minister of digital transformation, to become the new minister of defense as part of a “wave of personnel changes.”  He also promised that “more decisions will follow.”

Federov was at one point seen as a potential candidate to replace Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s chief of staff, who resigned over a corruption scandal.

But earlier Friday, Zelensky announced that Kyrylo Budanov, head of the country’s military intelligence agency, would fill the role – which had been left vacant for weeks.

The appointment of Budanov, 39, moves one of Ukraine’s highest-profile generals into a political role as the country starts to discuss the possibility of elections if a ceasefire can be reached with Russia.  It also removes a celebrated spymaster from his post, shaking up Ukraine’s intelligence leadership.

Budanov has been seen as a potential rival to Zelensky as the United States and Russia call for elections.  The move suggests he will not compete against Zelensky in a presidential election, political analysts said, but I thought Zelensky already said he isn’t running.

Budanov has a strong relationship with the United States, which could be important in negotiations with the Trump administration.  He was trained as part of a CIA-backed initiative, and after he was injured in fighting in eastern Ukraine, he received treatment at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland, a rare accommodation for a Ukrainian soldier.

Recent polling showed that Budanov would beat Zelensky in Ukraine’s two-phase presidential election if he entered the second round.

—President Trump on Sunday told reporters that U.S. officials have determined that Ukraine did not target a residence belonging to President Putin in a drone attack, disputing Kremlin claims that Trump had initially greeted with deep concern.

Trump said “something happened nearby” Putin’s residence but that American officials didn’t find the president’s residence was targeted.”

–Late last Friday in a Russian strike on Kharkiv, five people were killed and 30 injured, as a multi-story residential apartment block was almost completely destroyed in the dual missile attack which President Zelensky called “heinous.”

“Unfortunately, this is how the Russians treat life and people – they continue killing, despite all efforts by the world, and especially by the United States, in the diplomatic process,” Zelensky wrote on X.

Russia denied planning or launching the attack.

Russia in turn accused Ukraine of killing at least 27 people and injuring more than 30 others in a drone strike on a New Year’s party in the village of Khorly on the Black Sea.

Ukraine said it adheres to the norms of international humanitarian law and conducted strikes exclusively against military targets.

—Belgorod’s regional governor claimed two people were killed in Ukrainian drone strikes in Russian border regions.

–On Monday, an overnight Russian air attack on Kyiv and its region killed two people.  A medical facility was hit.

Thursday, Russia launched another massive attack across the country that killed at least four and injured 25 in Kyiv, where loud booms could be heard for several hours.

But Moscow for just a second time used the Oreshnik nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missile.

Russia’s defense ministry said the strike was in response to a Ukrainian drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s residence…which as noted above was a total lie!  The Oreshnik appears to have hit the western city of Lviv.

“Such a strike close to EU and NATO border is a grave threat to the security on the European continent and a test for the transatlantic community,” Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said.  The strike was launched “in response to [Putin’s] own hallucinations,” he added.

Also Thursday night, as Moscow’s attack on Ukraine was ongoing, half a million people in the Russian region of Belgorod were left without power following Ukrainian shelling of a power plant.

China: Taiwan officials dismissed the idea that Donald Trump’s apparent violation of international law could embolden Beijing, according to a senior official in Taipei’s security circle, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about sensitive issues.  China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its own territory, so international laws don’t factor into its calculations, the person said.  What Beijing lacks is capability, not precedent, the official added.

The bullish sentiment among Taiwanese officials – who have reason to talk-up their position – contrasts with nationalist sentiment sweeping Chinese social media, where users said the strike offered a template for how Beijing could handle tensions with Taiwan.

The officials see the move in Venezuela as a powerful deterrent to Beijing’s aggression and a timely reminder of the U.S. ability to defeat militaries equipped with Chinese-made weapons.

The strikes signaled to Chinese President Xi Jinping Trump’s willingness to use military might for international affairs core to U.S. interests. [South China Morning Post]

But no doubt…Taiwan’s leadership has its fingers crossed that the U.S. would be there for them in full force.

Separately, Beijing warned that a proposal by Taiwanese lawmakers to amend legislation is a move aimed at “de jure independence” for the island, heightening the risk of war.

“This proposal disregards the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan…publicly challenges the historical and legal fact that Taiwan is part of China, and blatantly promotes ‘de jure Taiwan independence,’” Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhua said on Sunday.

“Taiwan independence means war. We have full confidence and sufficient capability to crush any form of ‘de jure Taiwan independence’ plot,” he added.

Chen was referring to a proposal by legislators from the island’s ruling independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to amend a cross-strait people relations law.

Separately, leaders in Taipei can’t be happy with a careless statement President Trump made in his extensive interview with the New York Times Wednesday.

When asked what he thought about China and President Xi Jinping potentially invading Taiwan, Trump replied: “That’s up to him.”

Meanwhile, last month, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested her country could mobilize a military response if China tried to seize Taiwan, Beijing responded with angry statements and warplane sorties.  Its message: That is none of your business.

But the economic and geopolitical reality is that a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait would pose a significant threat to the interests of Japan and its biggest ally, the U.S.  Taiwan, after all, sits at a crucial maritime crossroads.

A large portion of global trade passes through the South and East China Seas. Chokepoints like the Bashi Channel sweep Taiwan’s edges.

A successful Chinese conquest of Taiwan would enable Beijing to dominate the region’s strategic waterways, project military power widely into the Pacific and more aggressively pursue its contested maritime and territorial claims.

“The balance of power in Asia would be tipped quite decisively in favor of China should Taiwan fall into China’s hands,” said Robert Ward, Japan chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Looking seaward, China is “sort of hemmed in” right now, he said, referring to the First Island Chain – a string of archipelagoes off the country’s east coast made up largely of a trio of U.S. partners: Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.  China “clearly wants to break out of that,” Ward said.

In a conflict, Taiwan’s fate would become quickly intertwined with the U.S.-Japan security alliance.  To repel a full-scale attack on Taiwan, Taipei would need America – its main defense partner – to join the fight, and American forces would need Japan.

And this is why senior Taiwanese officials, like those I just cited, are keeping their fingers crossed that the U.S. would intervene directly, and that’s really an open question.  Clearly, President Trump is focused today on Venezuelan oil and Greenland.  And he has this upcoming trip to China in April where he wants to be treated like a king…which President Xi no doubt will do, to Xi’s total benefit.

Just a reminder.  The Japanese island of Yonaguni, 1,200 miles from Tokyo, is less than 70 miles from Taiwan.

Lastly, on Tuesday, China banned the export of dual-use goods that can serve military purposes to Japan, a move made amidst the heightened tensions between the two.

While the notice didn’t identify specific items, it likely applies to things like drones and navigation systems that could be quickly adapted for military use.

Iran: Iran’s supreme leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted Saturday that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations.

State television aired remarks by Khamanei to an audience in Tehran that sought to separate the concerns of protesting Iranians upset about the rial’s collapse from “rioters.”

“We talk to protesters, the officials must talk to them,” Khameni said.  “But there is no benefit to talking to rioters.  Rioters must be put in their place.”

He also reiterated a claim constantly made by officials in Iran that foreign powers like Israel or the United States were pushing the protests, without offering any evidence.  He also blamed “the enemy” for Iran’s collapsing rial.

“A bunch of people incited or hired by the enemy are getting behind the tradesmen and shopkeepers and chanting slogans against Islam, Iran and the Islamic Republic,” he said.  “This is what matters most.”

The death toll in the violence surrounding the protests has risen to at least 35 people, activists said Tuesday, as the country’s theocracy acknowledged the unrest in one western province where security forces reportedly raided a hospital.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said more than 1,200 people have been detained in the protests, which have been ongoing now for about ten days.

It said 29 protesters, four children and two members of Iran’s security forces have been killed. [The death toll has now been reported at anywhere from 28 to “over 40” by various organizations, including Amnesty International, which Thursday had it at 28.]

The protests have become the biggest in Iran since 2022, when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody triggered nationwide demonstrations.  However, the protests have yet to be as widespread and intense as those surrounding the death of Amini, who was detained over not wearing her hijab, or headscarf, to the liking of authorities.

Protests over a gasoline price hike in 2019 reportedly saw over 300 people killed.  The Amini protests, which lasted for months, killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.

The Eurasia Group in a recent analysis of today’s situation said “Iran has no organized domestic opposition; protesters are likely acting spontaneously.  While protests could continue or grow larger (particularly as Iran’s economic outlook remains dire), the regime retains a large security apparatus and would likely suppress such dissent without losing control of the country.”

And the protests were growing at week’s end, as the government imposed an internet blackout on Thursday.  This came after the heads of Iran’s judiciary and its security services said they would take tough measures against any one protesting.  But the threats did not deter demonstrators.  There were chants of “Death to Khamenei” in Tehran.

Iranian state media broke its silence Friday over the protests, alleging “terrorist agents” of the U.S. and Israel set fires and sparked violence.  It also said there were “casualties,” without elaborating.

Ayatollah Khamenei, in a brief address aired by state television, signaled authorities would crack down.

Protesters are “ruining their own streets to make the president of another country happy,” Khamenei said, referring to President Trump.

Yemen: This is an under the radar issue, and even it totally blows up it might not be a market-moving one, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE are having a major tussle over their support in the Yemen civil war, which has claimed more than 150,000 and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

The latest friction is among members of the Saudi-led coalition, based in Yemen’s south, that for years has been fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, based in the north.

But Saudi Arabia alleged Thursday that the UAE smuggled a separatist leader in Yemen wanted for treason out of the country to Abu Dhabi.  The UAE hasn’t responded, but it further escalates tensions.

Greenland: Denmark’s prime minister has urged President Trump to stop threatening to take over Greenland after the president said the U.S. “absolutely” needs the territory.

Mette Frederiksen said: “It makes absolutely no sense to talk about the U.S. needing to take over Greenland. The U.S. has no right to annex any of the three countries in the Danish kingdom.”

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday hours after Ms. Frederiksen’s remarks, Trump doubled down on his claim that Greenland should become part of the United States.

“It’s so strategic. Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place.  We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it,” Trump told reporters when asked about the issue, adding “We’ll worry about Greenland in about two months.  Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days,” further deepening fears that the U.S. was planning an intervention in the near future.

Trump also said Colombia could be next.  Colombia is “run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States,” Trump said regarding President Gustavo Petro.  “He’s not going to be doing it for very long.”

When asked if Trump may target Colombia like he did in Venezuela, he replied, “It sounds good to me.” [But then Wed. the two leaders talked on the phone.]

Trump also threatened Iran with more military attacks as the country reels from protests over worsening economic conditions.  “If they start killing people like they have in the past.  I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,” he said. [Well, the regime is now killing people.]

Hours after the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, the rightwing podcaster Katie Miller – the wife of Stephen Miller, Trump’s powerful deputy chief of staff for policy – posted on X a map of Greenland draped in the stars and stripes with the caption: “SOON.”

Greenland’s prime minster, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, called the post “disrespectful.” “Relations between nations and peoples are built on mutual respect and international law – not on symbolic gestures that disregard our status and our rights,” he wrote on X.

But he also said: “There is neither reason for panic nor for concern.  Our country is not for sale, and our future is not decided by social media posts.”

Copenhagen’s ambassador to the U.S., Jesper Moller Sorensen, reported the social media post with a “friendly reminder” of the longstanding defense ties between the two countries.

“We are close allies and should continue to work together as such.  U.S. security is also Greenland’s and Denmark’s security,” he said.  “The Kingdom of Denmark and the United States work together to ensure security in the Arctic.”

He said Denmark had increased defense spending in 2025, committing $13.7 billion “that can be used in the Arctic and North Atlantic.  Because we take our joint security seriously.”

Trump recently named Jeff Landry, the governor of Louisiana, as a special envoy to Greenland.  Landry, a former state attorney general, thanked Trump for his appointment in December, saying it was “an honor to serve you in this volunteer position to make Greenland a part of the U.S.”

Monday, Stephen Miller asserted that Greenland rightfully belonged to the United States and that the Trump administration could seize the semiautonomous Danish territory if it wanted.

“Nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland,” Miller told Jake Tapper on CNN, after being asked repeatedly whether he would rule out using military force.

The remarks were part of a vocal push by Miller to justify American imperialism and a vision for a new world order in which the United States could freely overthrow national governments and take foreign territory and resources so long as it was in the national interest.

“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” he said. “These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”

Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen said Monday an American takeover of Greenland would amount to the ed of NATO.

“If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops,” Frederiksen told Danish broadcaster TV2.  “That is, including our NATO alliance and thus the security that has been provided since the end of the Second World War.”

The U.S. operates the remote Pituffik Space Basin in northwestern Greenland. It supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the U.S. and NATO.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Sec. of State Rubio told lawmakers during a briefing Monday that the administration’s goal is to buy Greenland from Denmark rather than launch an invasion.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) said the administration’s rhetoric about Greenland is “all about negotiations,” according to the Journal.

“We need to have the legal control and the legal protections to justify building the place up and putting our people on the ground,” Graham said.

“This is really dumb,” posted Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate member of the GOP conference who slammed the comments from Miller about seizing Danish territory.

Senate Majority Leader Thune dismissed the idea of taking Greenland by force, calling it “getting the cart ahead of the horse,” and Speaker Johnson said the idea would not be “appropriate.”

Thune, giving the rational answer, said he hopes something could be “mutually worked out” to expand the U.S. presence in Greenland.

Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) released a statement calling on the administration to respect the “sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Denmark. They co-chair the bipartisan Senate NATO Observer Group.

On Tuesday, six European allies expressed support for Denmark.

“Greenland belongs to its people, and only Denmark and Greenland can decide on matters concerning their relations,” the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Denmark said in a joint statement.

Stressing they were as keen as the U.S. in Arctic security, the European signatories of the joint statement said this must be achieved by NATO allies, including the U.S. “collectively.”

They also called for “upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders.”

Sec. of State Rubio is set to meet with Danish officials next week.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Americans are trying to figure out President Trump’s goals in Venezuela, but spare a thought this week for Greenland.  The President has good strategic instincts about the world’s largest island, so it’s regrettable that his interest is devolving into a self-defeating exercise in U.S. bullying….

“The invasion talk is probably Trumpian bluster to prod a negotiation to buy the island or end up with some other expanded U.S. presence.  But even the suggestion of force is damaging America’s interests across the Atlantic.

“Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen was candid that ‘if the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything will come to an end,’ including NATO. The truth of that statement is what makes military action from Mr. Trump hard to take seriously.

“But feuding with friends over Greenland is giving Vladimir Putin another wedge to divide America from Europe to his benefit. That means less U.S. leverage for driving a good and durable Ukraine settlement.

“Nothing precludes Mr. Trump from shoring up America’s position on Greenland, including mining to reduce U.S. reliance on China.  A bipartisan statement from U.S. lawmakers Tuesday noted that Denmark has accepted ‘every request to increase our military presence on the island.’

“The U.S. could restore its larger military footprint on Greenland from the Cold War – and perhaps ensure enduring access even if Greenland someday changes its political relationship with Denmark.

“Mr. Trump could also continue leveraging U.S. relationships as a force multiplier in the Arctic.  An under-appreciated Trump Administration achievement is a deal last fall to build 11 icebreakers with Finland. The Danes spent 3.2% of their economy on defense last year, up from 1.15% in 2014, so they can contribute. These alliances are better for U.S. interests than grabbing a new territory – and its domestic politics – against the will of the locals.

“Mr. Trump has enough on his hands elsewhere that the Greenland spat may blow over.  But (Stephen) Miller’s line in the same interview that the world is ‘governed by power’ and force is revealing. The left is deploying absurd false equivalences to accuse Mr. Trump in Venezuela of violating international law, which exists only as long as civilized nations exist. Western military power is indispensable.

“But the corollary is that successful U.S. presidents don’t reduce America’s role in the world to might-makes-right.  Maybe the Greenland affair is merely what now passes for online MAGA entertainment. But Mr. Trump would help his own cause in every hemisphere if he dropped the invade-Greenland routine.”

Marc Champion / Bloomberg News

“What’s emerging ever more clearly is that Europe is vulnerable because it remains dependent on the old U.S.-led world order in ways that much of the rest of the world does not; lopsided trade deals, manipulations over Ukraine and now Trump’s threats to take Greenland are simply test cases that prove the point. At the same time, we don’t yet have a replacement world ‘order,’ just the grizzly death throes of the last one.  It seems clear that we’re heading back to some form of 19th century great power competition, but without – as yet – any mechanism like the post-Napoleonic Concert of Europe to limit the rivalry and propensity to war that this will entail.

“There will be countless questions for such an arrangement to resolve.  How much of Europe, for example, should be in Russia’s sphere of control?  Where in the Pacific or Himalayas should China’s sphere end and America’s and India’s begin? What of Taiwan and its vital chip industry?  And what will be the fallout in the Western Balkans, where in the 1990s the U.S. and Europe prevented Serbia, the dominant regional power, from changing borders with its neighbors by force of arms and ethnic cleansing?  Will the European Union – the rules-based international order par excellence – be able to rearm and remain sufficiently unified to survive in a recognizable form?

“None of these questions are fully answerable for the time being, because the Ukraine war is ongoing and Trump’s attempt to impose a new ‘Donroe Doctrine’ in America’s back yard does not yet amount to a new international order.  All of those issues and more, however, are now very much in play.”

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove.  25% of independents approve (Dec. 1-15).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove (Jan. 9).

—Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican, died suddenly at 65 on Tuesday.  He was serving his seventh term representing a rural district in the northeast corner of the state.

LaMalfa reportedly suffered an aneurysm and then a heart attack after being taken into surgery.

His seat was among those targeted by California Democrats in their bid to redraw district lines to counter President Donald Trump’s mid-decade redistricting push in Texas and other states.

LaMalfa’s death also further narrows an already slim Republican majority in the House, now just 218-213.

But then we learned after the announcement on Rep. LaMalfa that Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.) and his wife are recovering from a “pretty bad” car accident, President Trump confirmed during his address to House GOP lawmakers.

“They are going to be okay but they had a pretty bad accident and we’re praying that they get out of the hospital very quickly,” Trump said.

A rep for his office said in a statement: “Congressman Baird looks forward to continuing his work on behalf of Hoosiers.”

So at least temporarily, with Baird out, the GOP’s margin has slipped to 217-213.

[Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene also retired, effective Monday.]

—President Trump insisted Tuesday that Republicans have “so many good nuggets” to campaign on this year as they try to hold onto their razor-thin margin in the House.

Trump’s appearance at the GOP’s policy forum was meant to ensure House Republicans that they and the White House were aligned on their agenda ahead of the November midterms that will determine control of Congress and the course of Trump’s final two years in office.  Trump warned that if Democrats regain control of Congress, “they’ll find a way to impeach me.”

Rising health care costs, Trump’s expansive foreign policy pursuits and other issues are dramatically splitting the GOP, with some Republicans increasingly comfortable bypassing Speaker Mike Johnson to join Democratic proposals.

—In a remarkable rebuke of Republican leadership, the House passed legislation Thursday, 230-196, that would extend expired health care subsidies for those who get coverage through the Affordable Care Act.

But the Senate doesn’t have to take it up, and, instead, a small group of senators from both parties has been working on an alternative plan that could find support in both chambers and become law.

—Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrats 2024 candidate for vice president, ended his bid for a third term as governor less than four months after launching a reelection campaign.

Walz said in a statement Monday that he believes he would have won another term but decided “that I can’t give a political campaign my all” after what he described as an “extraordinarily difficult year for our state.”

Walz, 61, has cited ongoing investigations into fraud in the state’s childcare programs and the fact that President Trump has used the issue as a political cudgel.

“Donald Trump and his allies – in Washington, St. Paul, and online – want to make our state a colder, meaner place,” Walz said, referring to the Trump administration withholding funds for the programs.  “They want to poison our people against each other by attacking our neighbors.  And, ultimately, they want to take away much of what makes Minnesota the best place in America to raise a family.”

So this leaves Democrats in the state high and dry.  But…there is one big possibility, that being that Sen. Amy Klobuchar could run for governor.

With Democrats on the defensive in Minnesota for week with the Trump administration intensifying its investigation into the scandal, Klobuchar would be a boost for them in the lean-blue state.

The one-time presidential candidate has the credibility, including as a former prosecutor.  Klobuchar is “considering” a run but hasn’t decided yet.

But then we had the incident in Minneapolis Wednesday, when we had the fatal shooting of a woman by an ICE agent.

The killing of 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good spurred demonstrations across the U.S., some protesters with placards calling for the abolition of ICE.

Officials have offered differing accounts of the shooting, with the Trump administration claiming the ICE agent acted in self-defense, while local officials say the woman posed no danger.

The FBI said it would investigate the matter, but then Minnesota officials said they were denied access to materials and evidence, virtually guaranteeing this won’t be a fair process.

Videos of the incident show ICE agents approaching a car which is in the middle of the street, and telling the woman behind the wheel to get out of the SUV. One of the agents tugs at the driver’s side door handle.

As the vehicle attempts to drive off, one of the agents at the front of the car points their gun at the driver and several shots are heard.

The car then continues to drive away from the officer and crashed into the side of the street.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has claimed the ICE agent shot Good multiple times because she was trying to run over the officer in her car.

Democratic Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey called that version of events a false narrative, saying it was clear to him she was trying to leave the scene, not attack an agent.

President Trump, never one to follow my ’24-hour’ rule, posted on Truth Social shortly after the incident:

“I have just viewed the clip of the event which took place in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is a horrible thing to watch.  The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting, who then violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer, who seems to have shot her in self defense.  Based on the attached clip, it is hard to believe he is alive, but is now recovering in the hospital.  The situation is being studied, in its entirety, but the reason these incidents are happening is because the Radical Left is threatening, assaulting, and targeting our Law Enforcement Officers and ICE Agents on a daily basis.  They are just trying to do the job of MAKING AMERICA SAFE.  We need to stand by and protect our Law Enforcement Officers from this Radical Left Movement of Violence and Hate!”

For the record, the ICE officer walked away.  But the officer’s body cam (or cellphone), just revealed, is showing a different angle on the confrontation.

Again, wait 24 hours.

—The Trump administration is withholding funds for families from 5 Democratic-led states over fraud concerns.

Five states – California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York – have been targeted and the Department of Health and Human Services said they had been notified.

The HHS, which oversees the program, will require the states to provide extra documentation to access the funds.  The administration has not laid out details about the fraud allegations.

In the fallout from the Minnesota scandal, HHS officials said no state will receive childcare funds without providing more verification.  Gov. Kathy Hochul said that New York is prepared to take the administration to court, as Democratic-led states have done scores of times now.

—Federal health officials on Monday announced dramatic revisions to the slate of vaccines recommended for American children, reducing the number of diseases prevented by routine shots to 11 from 17.

Jim O’Neill, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has updated the agency’s immunization schedule to reflect the changes, effective immediately, officials said at a news briefing.

The announcement is a seismic shift in federal vaccine policy, and perhaps the most significant change yet in public health practice by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health secretary, who has long sought to reduce the number of shots American children receive.

The states, not the federal government, have the authority to mandate vaccinations.  But recommendations from the CDC greatly influence state regulators.

The new schedule circumvents the detailed and methodical evidence-based process that has underpinned vaccine recommendations in the nation for decades.  Until now, a federal panel of independent advisers typically reviewed scientific data for each new vaccine, and when and how it should be administered to children.

Public health experts expressed outrage at the sweeping revisions, saying federal officials did not present evidence to support the changes or incorporate input from vaccine experts.

“The abrupt change to the entire U.S. childhood vaccine schedule is alarming, unnecessary and will endanger the health of children in the United States,” said Dr. Helen Chu, a physician and immunologist at the University of Washington in Seattle and a former member of the federal vaccine advisory committee.

Dr. Chu also took issue with the health officials’ claim that the move would increase trust in vaccines and boost immunization rates.  It will do the opposite, she warned.

“Already, parents are worried about what they are hearing in the news about safety of vaccines, and this will increase confusion and decrease vaccine uptake,” Dr. Chu said.

The new schedule continues to recommend vaccines against some diseases, including measles, polio and whooping cough, for all children.

Immunization against other diseases – such as respiratory syncytial virus, the leading cause of hospitalization in American infants – will be recommended for only some high-risk groups.

But other shots, including those against rotavirus, influenza and hepatitis A, can be administered to children only after consultation with a health care provider.

It is unclear what evidence led to these decisions, said Dr. Demetre Dashalakis, who led the CDC center that oversaw vaccine policy before he resigned in August.

–Separately, the administration released new dietary guidelines on Wednesday that flip the food pyramid on its head, putting steak, cheese and whole milk near the top.  [Your editor is happy, eating a lot of cheese himself daily.]

The new guidelines urge Americans to prioritize protein and avoid the sugary, processed foods that health secretary RFK Jr. has said are poisonous to health.

No problem…eat cheese instead of packaged cookies!

After years of being advised to avoid eating too much red meat and foods high in fats, Americans are now being told to embrace them. The document codifies some of Kennedy’s frequent talking points, like recommending people cook with butter and beef tallow despite the fact that scientific evidence does not support doing so.

On other points, the guidelines do not stray far from mainstream nutrition advice.  They encourage Americans to eat plenty of fruits and vegetables and stop short of explicitly saying that people should eat more saturated fats, though Kennedy had pledged to “end the war” on them.  And they make no direct mention of seed oils, a frequent target for RFK Jr., who has repeatedly claimed – without evidence – that they harm health.

The guidelines have been endorsed by the American Medical Association, the same group that sharply condemned Kennedy’s upheaval of the childhood vaccine schedule.

The guidelines shape the foods served in schools, hospitals, prisons, military bases and through federal assistance programs.  They are updated every five years and rarely change in substance.

The guidelines focus on priorities from RFK Jr. and his Make America Healthy Again movement, emphasizing protein, which most Americans already get enough of.

They place no restrictions on alcohol…just that Americans should drink less, not the standard ‘no more than 1 or 2 drinks a day.’

So, Beer and Cheese, folks!  [Or wine and cheese, for those so inclined.]

–One of the worst dirtballs in the history of our country, Aldrich Ames, died this week aged 84.  He was the CIA officer who became one of America’s most damaging double agents.

The former counterintelligence officer, who was serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole, died at the Federal Correctional Institution in Cumberland, Maryland, CBS News first reported.

Ames was jailed on April 28, 1994, after he admitted to selling secret information to the Soviet Union and later Russia.

He compromised more than 100 clandestine operations and divulged the identities of more than 30 agents spying for the West – leading to the deaths of at least 10 CIA intelligence assets.

Seeking money to pay debts, Ames said he began providing the KGB with the names of CIA spies in April 1985, receiving an initial payment of $50,000.

Known to the KGB by his code name, Kolokol (The Bell), Ames went on to identify virtually all of the CIA’s spies in the Soviet Union, for which he was well rewarded.

Over the course of nine years, Ames admitted receiving a total of about $2.5 million from the Soviet Union for his betrayal of the U.S.

–The local authorities failed to carry out yearly safety inspections between 2020 and 2025 at the bar in the Swiss Alps that suffered a deadly fire last week, Swiss officials acknowledged on Tuesday, amid mounting accusations that lax oversight had set the stage for the disaster.

“We bitterly regret this,” said Nicolas Feraud, the mayor of Crans-Montana, the ski resort town where the fire killed 40 people, many of them teenagers, and injured over 100 others during New Year’s celebrations.

The last inspection was actually May 2019.  The layout of the place was insane.  But it’s the same layout for bars/nightclubs all over the world.

—California’s wet winter is breaking rainfall records, but there is a bright spot – fire conditions.  At least the wet winter offers some protections – in the short term. The final rainy days of 2025 helped pull California almost completely out of drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.  And that’s even before the wettest months of the year, traditionally January and February.

The water year starts Oct. 1, and downtown Los Angeles by year end had received 11.64 inches of rain – roughly 82% of its normal rainfall for the entire water year, which would be Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

—The Australian government announced Thursday that parts of the country face “catastrophic” fire conditions on Friday, when heatwaves are expected to hit most of the country.

The state of Victoria has declared a total fire ban for Friday, with some 450 schools and childcare centers to be closed.

Melbourne experienced its hottest day in six years on Wednesday with a high of 40.9C (105.6F). It then hit 110 on Friday!  You can look it up.

The Australian Open, in Melbourne, begins Monday.  Heat is historically an issue with this event, but the weather is forecast to be much cooler the next two weeks.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4514…near a record high….
Oil $58.97

Bitcoin: $90,200 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $2.80; Diesel: $3.52 [$3.06 – $3.54 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 1/5-1/9

Dow Jones +2.3%  [49504]
S&P 500  +1.6%  [6966]
S&P MidCap  +3.3%
Russell 2000  +4.6%
Nasdaq  +1.9%  [23671]

Returns for the period 1/1/26-1/9/26

Dow Jones  +3.0%
S&P 500  +1.8%
S&P MidCap  +4.7%
Russell 2000  +5.7%
Nasdaq  +1.9%

Bulls  56.6
Bears 17.0

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore