For the week 1/26-1/30

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,397

Last week I opened with President Trump’s speech in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum, and in my second paragraph I noted that Trump “felt compelled to bring up 2020’s ‘rigged election.’  It was outrageous.”

I was surprised that few people talked about this after.  But this wasn’t a rally in Iowa, or Pennsylvania.  It was a forum of business and world government leaders.  And he still had to talk about an election years ago that he lost.

So, it should be zero surprise that this week the FBI searched an election office in Fulton County, Georgia, seeking records (ballots) related to 2020.  It’s all about sowing doubts in the upcoming mid-term elections, the president knowing if the Democrats take the House, his presidency, save for foreign adventurism, is over two years early.

Trump on Truth Social, Thursday AM, 5:59 AM:

“TRUMP WON BIG. Crooked Election!”

If you’re not concerned, you need to be, and it sure as hell could be a market mover.

And then we had the following….

—

Trump, ICE and Minneapolis

Saturday morning, we learned that a U.S. Border Patrol agent fatally shot a man in Minneapolis, sharply escalating tensions in a city already on edge after weeks of protests over two other shootings by federal agents and a sweeping immigration crackdown by the Trump administration.

As video from eyewitnesses came in, the picture emerged.  The victim, soon identified as a 37-year-old intensive care nurse in the Minneapolis VA Health Care System, Alex Pretti, is seen filming officers from down the street.  He walks toward them, still filming. He is not holding a gun.

One of the officers pushes a bystander or protester down onto the sidewalk.  Pretti steps between them, and the officer pepper sprays him in the face.

Pretti begins to interact with the person who was pushed, but the exchange cannot be heard.  An officer appears to try to pull him away, leading to the scuffle in which Pretti is fatally shot.

In the immediate aftermath of the killing, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem accused him of committing “domestic terrorism” and brandishing a firearm at Customs and Border Protection agents before being killed, an assertion she stood by the first 24+ hours.

The Department of Homeland Security alleged that Pretti “violently resisted” disarmament until officers fired “defensive shots.”  All the footage that rolled in contradicted that version of events.  Videos showed a federal officer pulling a handgun away from Pretti.  Less than a second later, an agent fires several rounds (ten shots in all). [Days later we learned the shots came from two Border Patrol agents, not one.]

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller called Pretti a “would-be assassin” in a post on X.

Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said Pretti did not have a criminal record and appeared to lawfully own his gun.  Minnesota allows the open carry of handguns for people with permits.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) forcefully reiterated calls for the Trump administration to pull back on its surge in immigration enforcement and called the killing “sickening.”  He accused the roughly 3,000 immigration officers patrolling streets of “sowing chaos and violence.”

President Trump blamed state and local officials on Truth Social for the shooting, posting a photo of a gun that federal officials said Pretti was carrying.

Trump, 2:06 PM, Saturday:

“This is the gunman’s gun, loaded (with two additional full magazines!) and ready to go – What is that all about?  Where are the local Police?  Why weren’t they allowed to protect ICE Officers? ….”

Democrats expressed outrage when Noem and Miller used similar language after Renee Good was shot and killed in her car by an ICE officer earlier in the month.  The White House generally doubled down on its stance defending the officer in that case and accused Good of trying to run agents over, though eyewitness videos showed her attempting to steer away from them.

The National Rifle Association (NRA) criticized comments by a senior federal prosecutor warning that approaching law enforcement with a gun could justify a fatal police response, saying such statements risk “demonizing law-abiding citizens” as the nation reels from the killing of a man by a U.S. border agent.

The NRA was responding to remarks by Bill Essayli, the first assistant U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, who said that “if you approach law enforcement with a gun, there is a high likelihood they will be legally justified in shooting you,” adding, “Don’t do it.” In a statement the NRA called that view “dangerous and wrong,” urging public officials to refrain from broad generalizations and to wait for the outcome of a full investigation into Pretti’s death.

The organization has also spoken out against ‘radical progressive politicians like Tim Walz,” accusing them of inciting “violence against law enforcement officers who are simply trying to do their jobs.”

In a brief interview with the Wall Street Journal Sunday evening, President Trump declined to say whether the federal officer who shot Pretti had acted appropriately and said the administration was reviewing the incident.

The president criticized Pretti for carrying a gun during the protest activity.  Again, Pretti wasn’t carrying, or “brandishing” it.

By Sunday, chances of a partial shutdown spiked, with some moderate Democrats who seemed like they might’ve been willing to support the DHS bill just days ago now vowing to block it.

“This brutal crackdown has to end.  I cannot and will not vote to fund DHS while this administration continues these violent federal takeovers of our cities,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said in a post on X.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) wrote on X that she would vote against any package funding DHS until guardrails are in place to “curtail these abuses of power and ensure more accountability and transparency.”

Multiple Republican senators expressed concern about the incident and called for transparency in an investigation.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) called the incident “incredibly disturbing.”

“The credibility of Ice and DHS are at stake. There must be a full joint federal and state investigation. We can trust the American people with the truth,” he said on X.

Editorial / Washington Post

“The unjust killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old nurse in Minneapolis, marks a turning point in President Donald Trump’s second term.  His mass deportation campaign has been a moral and political failure, leaving American citizens feeling outraged and unsafe.

“A Border Patrol officer killed Pretti on Saturday, and the Department of Homeland Security quickly claimed that Pretti was a ‘domestic terrorist’ who wanted to ‘massacre’ agents. Yet Pretti can be seen on tape holding his phone, not a gun, in his right hand, and his left hand is empty.  While an independent investigation is necessary to iron out all the facts, it appears that the precipitating event was a federal officer pushing a woman down onto the sidewalk.  Pretti, who was a medical professional at the VA, stepped between them and gets pepper sprayed.  In the ensuing scuffle, a federal officer fired 10 rounds.

“Minneapolis’s police chief said Pretti was ‘a lawful gun owner with a permit to carry.’  Minnesota law allows the open carry of handguns for people with permits.  He had no criminal record.

“The outrageous refusal by the feds to allow local authorities to properly secure the crime scene or gather evidence further inflames tensions with state and city police. The lack of accountability for federal officers has undermined the administration’s claims that this is about law and order.  The local population clearly wants the roughly 3,000 immigration officers now deployed around the Twin Cities to leave.

“Senate Democratic leaders have threatened to shut down the federal government by blocking passage of a DHS funding bill which must be approved by Friday.  Republican senators horrified by the immigration enforcement tactics could create room for a compromise.  But it’s not that simple.  ICE’s operations will continue under the status quo if Democrats block the DHS spending bill, because $75 billion was already allocated in the tax bill last summer.  If Democrats block the bill, unintended consequences will cascade across unrelated parts of government, from FEMA to the Coast Guard….

“It’s essential that federal immigration officers don’t think they can act with impunity, because that will only encourage more fatal encounters.  An independent probe of this shooting is an important step.  On Saturday night, a federal judge ordered DHS not to destroy evidence related to Pretti’s killing in response to a lawsuit filed by Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D).

“Democrats will prevail if they focus on a narrow set of reasonable demands. The president will gain the upper hand if the left clamors for abolishing ICE.  They already tried that during Trump’s first term, and it backfired.  At the same time, that agency needs to be bound by laws, oversight and accountability.  Most of all, U.S. citizens need to be secure in exercising their First and Second Amendment rights without worrying they’ll get gunned down.

“Most Americans want a secure border, and they think violent criminals should be deported.  That’s a large part of why Trump returned to the White House.  The overreach of the past year, however, could consume his presidency and lead to more tragedy.  If Trump won’t change course on his own, can Republicans in Congress save him from himself?”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“When Donald Trump visited the Journal in October 2024, he was asked how he’d implement his mass deportation policy to avoid appearing not be cruel and inviting a political backlash.

“His answer was surprisingly nuanced.  He said he had to deport illegal migrants because ‘we can’t handle these people coming in right now. But the interest from the heart, yeah, something’s got to be done.  I’m not going to do that [separate families].  I can’t do that.  Okay, thank you. Really good question.  I mean, there’s some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too. Okay?’

“Fifteen months later in Minneapolis, there isn’t much heart in Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The Saturday shooting of Alex Pretti, as he lay on the ground surrounded by ICE agents is the worst incident to date in what is becoming a moral and political debacle for the Trump Presidency….

“The Trump Administration spin (on the event) simply isn’t believable.  Stephen Miller, the political architect of the mass deportation policy, called Pretti a ‘domestic terrorist.’  He was a nurse without a criminal record.

“Kristi Noem, the Homeland Security secretary, said the fact that he carried a gun and (she said) two magazines, meant he ‘arrived at the scene to inflict maximum damage on individuals and to kill law enforcement.’

“But he had a license to carry a gun, which was legally concealed, not carried in his hand as some claimed. He was carrying his phone.  To hear the ardent gun-rights advocates of the Trump Administration claim he had malicious intentions because he carried a concealed weapon is bizarre.

“Pretti made a tragic mistake by interfering with ICE agents, but that warranted arrest, not a death sentence.  The agents say they felt threatened, but it’s worth noting the comments over the weekend by police around the country who say that this isn’t how they conduct law enforcement.

“Either many ICE agents aren’t properly trained, of they are so on edge as they face opposition in the streets that they are on a hair trigger.  Either way, this calls for rethinking how ICE conducts itself, especially in Minneapolis as tensions build.

“After the shooting of Renee Good two weeks ago, both Minnesota Democrats and Mr. Trump had a chance to calm the furies.  Mr. Trump instead sent 1,000 more immigration officers on top of the 2,000 already there.  Minneapolis has only 600 police officers.

“Gov. Tim Walz could have urged his citizens to avoid confrontations with ICE.  Instead he made a video urging them to go into the streets with phones and film ICE agents, whether or not they are performing lawful searches under federal immigration law.  His rhetoric is incendiary and describes ICE as a lawless terrorist operation.  Another tragedy was inevitable, and there will be more if this continues.

“Whether he likes it or not, most of the burden now lies with Mr. Trump as the President who controls ICE.  He would be wise to pause ICE enforcement in the Twin Cities to ease tensions and consider a less provocative strategy.  Yes, many on the left would conclude that their civil disobedience has paid off.  But Mr. Trump can still pursue enforcement with a smaller force and a strategy aimed at criminals, not at hotel maids and gardeners.

“Mr. Trump and his advisers could also help themselves, and the country, by explaining what they are trying to do and sounding conciliatory. Ms. Noem and Mr. Miller aren’t credible spokesmen.  Their social-media and cable-TV strategy is to own the libs, rather than to persuade Americans.

“This is backfiring against Republicans.  The violence in Minneapolis has erased the state’s welfare fraud from the headlines, which no doubt pleases Mr. Walz. It’s also given Democrats in Washington an excuse to shut down the government a second time over the Homeland Security funding bill.

“Mr. Miller’s mass deportation methods are turning immigration, an issue Mr. Trump owned in 2024, into a political liability for Republicans in 2026.  Americans don’t want law enforcement shooting people in the street or arresting five-year-old boys. The President who said you have to have a heart in enforcement ought to show some.”

Facing the Republican backlash, President Trump and the administration pivoted.  Trump announced Monday that he’s sending White House border czar Tom Homan to Minnesota to oversee operations.  Although Homan has a reputation for being a hard-liner on immigration enforcement, he’s been consistent in striking a calmer and more open-minded tone following the deaths of Good and Pretti, with many saying he has more credibility than Noem…not a hard task, frankly. Homan will report directly to the president.

Border Patrol chief Gregory Bovino, who has defended the agents’ conduct, along with some Border Patrol agents, were expected to leave Minnesota.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) called for the heads of ICE, CBP and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to testify before the Senate Homeland Security Committee over the “exceptional amount of funding” allotted for immigration enforcement.  That call was echoed by Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who said Noem’s response to the shooting was “premature” and weakened public confidence.

Various GOP governors, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, have publicly encouraged the administration to change its approach to immigration enforcement.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said Monday that Pretti’s actions before he was shot didn’t constitute domestic terrorism, and he insisted he doesn’t want to “prejudge the facts.”

President Trump reportedly met with Noem for two hours Monday evening at her request amid the backlash.  Many Democrats are calling for her to resign or be impeached.

Trump on Truth Social, 11:37 AM, Monday:

“Governor Tim Walz called me with the request to work together with respect to Minnesota. It was a very good call, and we, actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength.  I told Governor Walz that I would have Tom Homan call him, and that what we are looking for any and all Criminals that they have in their possession. The Governor, very respectfully, understood that, and I will be speaking to him in the near future.  He was happy that Tom Homan was going to Minnesota, and so am I!  We have had such tremendous SUCCESS in Washington, D.C., Memphis, Tennessee, and New Orleans, Louisiana, and virtually every other place that we have ‘touched’ and, even in Minnesota, Crime is way down, but both Governor Walz and I want to make it better!  PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

Walz called the conversation productive, saying Trump agreed to consider reducing the number of federal agents in Minnesota and ensuring the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension is able to conduct an independent investigation into what happened.

Walz and other state officials have complained for days that DHS has shut them out of the investigation, weeks after facing a similar situation following the Renee Good shooting.

Trump on Truth Social, 5:17 PM, Monday:

“I just had a very good telephone conversation with Mayor Jacob Frey, of Minneapolis.  Lots of progress is being made!  Tom Homan will be meeting with him tomorrow in order to continue the discussion. Thank you for your attention to this matter!  PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal, Monday….

“Syracuse professor Austin Kocher, who tracks official ICE data, finds that between Sept. 21, 2025, and Jan. 7, 2026, single-day ICE detentions increased 11,296.  But only 902 of those were convicted criminals, 2,273 had pending criminal charges and 8,121 were other immigrant violators. ICE arrests have been trending upward since January 2025, but criminal arrests have plateaued.

“All of which means that the Trump Administration’s rhetoric about deporting criminals doesn’t match its current much broader policy of mass deportation.  As ICE agents target businesses, schools and homes, scenes of arrest involving mothers, children and long-time U.S. residents become more common.  This explains why immigration enforcement is becoming a political liability for Republicans.

“Ending migrant chaos at the border was necessary after the Biden Administration.  But White House aide Stephen Miller’s undisciplined mass deportation and zero-immigration policy is building distrust, and the White House pitch that public safety justifies its enforcement is losing credibility.”

President Trump said of Greg Bovino: “He’s a pretty out-there kind of a guy” and “maybe it wasn’t good” to send him to Minneapolis, the president told Fox News Tuesday.  He also said taking Bovino out of Minneapolis is not a “pull back” of deportation operations there; rather “it’s a little bit of a change,” he said.

Tom Homan on Thursday vowed to “draw down” the federal presence in Minnesota as agents focus on targeted enforcement, a major shift in operations that comes amid backlash following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

We will “draw down the number of people we have here,” Homan said, adding, there will be “more agents in the jail, less agents in the street.”

Homan said he spoke with a number of state officials, including Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and described the conversations as productive.  He also acknowledged that the immigration operation in Minnesota needed changes.

“I’m not here because the federal has carried its mission out perfectly,” he said.  “What we’ve been working on is making this operation safer, more efficient by the book. The mission is going to improve because of the changes we’re making internally.”

But then Thursday night, President Trump told reporters there would “no drawdown.”

Jason L. Riley / Wall Street Journal

“Technically, Mr. Trump has another three years in office.  Realistically, his presidency will end this year if Republicans fail to retain control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.  A relentless focus on removing everyone in the country illegally, regardless of their danger to public safety, isn’t likely to help his fellow Republicans in November. The administration says that illegal immigrants steal jobs, but the unemployment rate in December was a relatively low 4.4%, and labor shortages persist in manufacturing, healthcare, construction and other key industries.

“For most voters, the top issue is the cost of living.  Inflation has eased but remains above the Fed’s 2% target.  Paychecks for too many lower- and middle-income earners aren’t keeping pace with the cost of food, energy, housing and healthcare.  Mass deportations aren’t the answer.  They’re more of a distraction.  Most of the people in the U.S. illegally have been here for decades and have put down roots.  They contribute to prosperity as both workers and consumers.  Forcibly removing them from the country isn’t only politically fraught but economically off-base.

“It’s also unnecessary, if the goal is to reduce the number of illegal immigrants. By securing the border, Mr. Trump has taken a significant step toward limiting the growth of the illegal population.  Over time it could shrink naturally as the migrants age and pass on with the rest of us.  The wiser course for Mr. Trump is to quit while he’s ahead.”

—

Wall Street and the Economy

Wednesday, markets were essentially flat heading into the Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, and, more importantly, Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after at 2:30.

As expected, the Fed then held the line on interest rates and offered little clarity on when cuts might resume after contentious reductions at officials’ three previous meetings.  The decision to hold the benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% was approved in a 10-2 vote, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran voting against the decision in favor of lowering rates by a quarter-point.

Compared with its previous statement the Fed removed language that had noted “downside risks to employment rose in recent months.”

The Fed upgraded views of the economy to say available indicators suggest economic activity “has been expanding at a solid pace.”  The statement then read: “Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.  Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

And: “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.  The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

Chair Powell’s presser comments elicited little response in the markets. Powell also declined to comment on the Department of Justice probe into the Chair about the cost of ongoing renovations to the Fed’s headquarters.

Asked why he attended Supreme Court oral arguments in the case involving the Trump administration’s efforts to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, Powell said it would have been harder to explain staying away than showing up.

The next Fed meeting is March 17-18, and we will have received a lot more relevant economic data by then as we’ve been playing catchup following the October government shutdown.  Any new shutdown it is hoped will be brief.  After a presumed Senate vote tonight, it will be up to the House to limit the damage by approving the reworked package Monday or Tuesday.

Friday morning, the president then announced he was nominating former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair after Powell’s term ends in May.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said:

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.  On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting’ and he will never let you down.”

Warsh gained a reputation for being an inflation “hawk” during and after leaving the Fed because he spent years warning that easy monetary policy would fuel rising prices.

More recently, he has said the Fed should cut rates faster.

But he is just one vote out of 12.  That said, Trump wrote on social media in December, “Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!”

Warsh needs to be confirmed by the Senate.

On the data front…

The figures for December producer prices certainly did not argue for more rate cuts, with headline up a whopping 0.5%, 0.7% ex-food and energy, while year-over-year, the PPI was 3.0%, 3.3% on core…all the numbers higher than expected.

And we had a far stronger-than-expected Chicago manufacturing PMI for January, 54.0, when 44 was expected.  It was the first figure above 50 (the dividing line between growth and contraction) in 26 months.

November durable goods rose a solid 5.3%, and November factory orders were up 2.7% month-over-month.

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for November was up 1.4% year-over-year vs. 1.3% in October, the first pickup in 10 months.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 6.10% this week.

The trade deficit in the U.S. widened sharply to $56.8 billion in November 2025, the highest in four months, compared to a $29.2 billion gap in October which was the lowest since 2009, and much higher than forecasts of a $40.5 billion shortfall.

The figure underscores pronounced monthly swings amid President Trump’s frequently changing tariff stance. Exports were down, led by falls in nonmonetary gold, pharmaceutical preparations and crude oil.

The growing deficit over October hurts GDP, as witnessed by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth falling to 4.2% from 5.4%.

–Separately, President Trump tore into Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, threatening to slap a 100% tariff on America’s northern neighbor after Carney blasted his foreign policy moves at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Trump called the Canadian leader “governor” and blasted away at his move to make import deals with China after Carney visited China this month.

“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday.

“China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life.”

“If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.,” the president continued.

Trump then posted at least three more times on the issue.

On Sunday, Carney said his country was rectifying some issues that had developed over the past several years, and that Canada was “going back to the future.”  He reiterated Canada’s commitment to the USMCA, which includes not pursuing free trade agreements with non-market economies.

Trump on Monday said he was increasing tariffs on goods from South Korea, accusing the country of “not living up to its Deal” with the U.S.  Tariffs on goods from South Korea will jump back to 25%, from 15%.

Europe and Asia

—India and the European Union struck a long-delayed deal on Tuesday that will slash tariffs on most goods, aiming to boost two-way trade and reduce reliance on the United States amid growing global trade tensions.  The deal is expected to double EU exports to India by 2032 by eliminating or reducing tariffs in 96.6% of traded goods by value, and will lead to savings of 4 billion euros ($4.75 billion) in duties for European companies, the EU said.

The EU will cut tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India over seven years, with tariffs to be cut to zero on Indian marine goods, leather and textile products, chemicals, rubber, base metals and gems and jewelry, India’s trade ministry said in a statement.

India and the EU said agriculture-related items like soya, beef, sugar, rice and dairy have been kept out of the purview of the trade deal.

The two-decade-long EU-India trade talks gained momentum after Washington imposed a 50% tariff on some Indian goods, and as U.S. allies pushed back against President Trump’s tariff threats and his bid to take over Greenland.

“Europe and India are making history today,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.  “This is only the beginning.”

Trade between India and the EU stood at $136.5 billion in the fiscal year through March 2025, compared to $132 billion of trade between India and the U.S., and $128 billion between India and China.

The formal signing of the deal will take five to six months following legal vetting.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in China on a visit aimed at increasing business and investment between the countries, seeking to reset a relationship that had grown bitter.

President Trump said it was “very dangerous” for the UK to do business with China.

Speaking at the premiere of a documentary about his wife Melania* on Thursday, Trump went on to refer to Xi as a “friend” of his and said he knew the Chinese president “very well.”

UK business minister sir Chris Bryant said Trump was “wrong” and it would be “bonkers frankly for the UK to ignore the presence of China on the world stage.”

*Melania is reportedly being paid $28 million for the film, which Amazon acquired for $40 million.  Amazon is producing and distributing the stirring flick, destined to be remembered right up there with “Lawrence of Arabia” and “The Godfather.”

–On the eurozone data front, a preliminary flash estimate for fourth quarter GDP showed an increase of 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, and up 1.5% for 2025; 1.3% 2025Q4 compared with 2024Q4. [Eurostat]

2025Q4 vs. 2024Q4….

Germany 0.4%, France 1.1%, Italy 0.8%, Spain 2.6%, Netherlands 1.8%.

The December unemployment rate for the euro area was 6.2%, compared with 6.3% a year earlier. [Eurostat]

Germany 3.8%, France 7.7%, Italy 5.6%, Spain 10.0%, Netherlands 4.0%, Ireland 5.0%.

China: No major data releases this week, though tonight we get the government’s PMI data for manufacturing and services in January.

Japan reported December retail sales fell 0.9% year-over-year.

Street Bytes

–After all the above, stocks finished mixed on the week, the Dow Jones down 0.4% to 48892, the S&P 500 up 0.3% and Nasdaq down 0.2%.

Next week, potential market-moving earnings from Alphabet and Amazon.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.62%  2-yr. 3.52%  10-yr. 4.24%  30-yr. 4.87%

The 10-year was basically unchanged on the week despite the news flow, but the yield on the 2-year fell 8 basis points.

—President Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the dollar’s recent decline, helping send the currency to its lowest level since early 2022.

“No, I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday when asked if he was worried about the currency’s drop.  “I think the value of the dollar – look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.”

The president has long accused other countries of seeking weaker exchange rates to boost exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted the distinction between the dollar’s price and its value as a reserve currency.

The dollar’s drop has also been fanned by Trump’s unpredictable policymaking, which has rattled overseas allies and investors: His threats to take over Greenland; his pressure on the Federal Reserve; tax cuts that deepened the deficit; and a leadership style that’s deepened U.S. political polarization.

Of course a weaker dollar can boost U.S. manufacturing and exports.  But it also makes imports more expensive, i.e., inflation.

That’s oversimplifying things.  But let’s keep it simple.

The other simple fact is most economists certainly see the value in the U.S. being viewed as a safe haven.  In the post-World War II era, that’s been a big benefit.

As the Wall Street Journal editorial board offered:

“Plenty of evidence suggests that exchange-rate swings produce at very best short-term shifts in economic activity – before domestic inflation and deflation offset the effects.  This should set off alarms for Mr. Trump, since a weak dollar risks inflation he can ill-afford before the November midterms….

“There are good reasons Washington traditionally reverts to a strong-dollar policy.  Mr. Trump likes being an economic iconoclast, but he breaks this particular tradition at his – and America’s – peril.”

Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC, “We don’t comment other than to say we have a strong dollar policy,” when asked whether the U.S. was intervening in Japan’s currency to strengthen the yen against the dollar.

–But gyrations in the currency markets, as well as President Trump’s policymaking, which is often on the fly, have helped the tremendous rallies in gold and silver; the latter’s move essentially parabolic since May, when silver was $33.

Silver was then $89 two weeks ago, and on Thursday morning hit $121!  And then it began a big slide into the $90s hours later, only to recover to finish the day at about $116.

But Friday, following the announcement that President Trump was nominating Keven Warsh for Fed Chair, silver, and gold, crashed anew; silver hitting $90 early Friday afternoon, then $74.  Gold, which hit $5600 Thursday, plummeted to $4900 at the same time.

Both have witnessed titanic moves, with major profits, but the flipside is profit-taking.  Let’s say that’s all it is for now.  The markets are incredibly volatile.  I give a late afternoon price down below.  It could be drastically different Monday morning.

—

Exxon Mobil results topped most expectations in the fourth quarter as the energy giant reported solid production in the Permian Basin and Guyana.

For the three months ending Dec. 31, Exxon earned $6.5 billion, or $1.53 per share. It earned $7.61 billion, or $1.72 per share, a year earlier.  Adjusted earnings of $1.71 beat the Street’s $1.68 estimate.

Revenue totaled $82.31 billion, which was below the $83.18 billion analysts expected.

Fourth-quarter net production was 5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, up slightly from 4.7 million in the third quarter. The quarterly performance included 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in the Permian and Guyana approaching 875,000 gross barrels per day.

Earlier this month President Trump said that he is “inclined” to keep Exxon Mobil out of Venezuela after CEO Darren Woods said he was skeptical about oil investment efforts in the country after the toppling of Nicolas Maduro.

Chevron’s fourth-quarter profits fell but came in ahead of estimates as it focused on cutting costs and making its operations more efficient to contend with lower crude prices throughout 2025.

The company is the only U.S. oil producer currently operating in Venezuela and is now in the geopolitical spotlight after the U.S. capture and removal of Maduro.  Chevron said Friday it was evaluating more opportunities in the country.

Chevron’s adjusted earnings for Q4 were $1.52 per share, ahead of consensus of $1.45.

Total oil production was 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the fourth quarter, flat compared with the previous quarter, but up from last year after it purchased smaller oil firm Hess.

Chevron cited strong performance in Kazakhstan, the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico.

The company said that Venezuela holds significant long-term potential.

“We have been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century.  We remain committed to its present. And we stand ready to help it build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security,” CEO Mike Wirth said in a statement.

The company currently produces 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Venezuela and could increase the figure by 50% within 18 to 24 months with additional U.S. authorizations, Chevron said. As former NBA great Derrick Coleman would have said, ‘whoopty-damn-do.’

Both Exxon and Chevron produced their smallest annual profits since 2021, pressured by a growing glut of crude that has weighed on prices.

Exxon’s annual earnings declined to $28.8 billion, from $33.7 billion in 2024.

Chevron posted an annual profit of $12.3 billion, down 30% from the previous year.

Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) is up $6 in two weeks largely on Iran fears and any shipping issues through the Strait of Hormuz.

—Microsoft shares fell as much as 12% Thursday after the tech giant reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results after the close, Wednesday.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $4.14 a share on revenue of $81.3 billion.  Analysts were expecting earnings of $3.91 on revenue of $80.3 billion.

Investors, however, were reacting to the company’s Azure cloud results. Azure’s revenue grew 39% during the quarter. While that beat Wall Street estimates of 37.8%, it was down slightly from the first-quarter’s 40% growth rate.

CFO Amy Hood said on the conference call Wednesday night that the company expects third-quarter Azure revenue growth to be between 37% and 38% in constant currency.  Wall Street was expecting 37.5%.

Hood also said that Microsoft expects fiscal third-quarter total revenue to be between $80.7 billion and $81.8 billion.  Analysts are expecting third-quarter revenue of $81.2 billion.

As in investors are like ‘eh.’

Microsoft, like its rivals in Big Tech, has been spending enormous amounts of money on AI infrastructure as demand keeps rising.  Cap-ex for the quarter was $37.5 billion, above Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $36.7 billion.

The company’s “Other” segment swung to income of $10 billion in the quarter, from a loss of $2.3 billion a year ago.  Microsoft said the new profit stems from changes to OpenAI’s corporate structure.  Microsoft owns about 27% of the AI start-up.

Microsoft also said that its commercial remaining performance obligations – contracts yet to be recognized – came to $625 billion, a 110% increase from the prior year.

“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises,” CEO Satya Nadella said in the earnings release.

—Meta Platforms reported solid fourth-quarter earnings results Wednesday afternoon and the shares soared 10%.

Earnings came in at $8.88 per share, ahead of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $8.21, up from $8.02 last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $59.9 billion, above expectations of $58.5 billion, and rising 24% on the year.

Revenue guidance for the first quarter was similarly strong, ahead of consensus.

Meta gets 97% of revenue from ads, and investors closely watch the metrics, including the number of ads seen by users and the average price per ad.  During the fourth quarter, those grew at healthy annual rates of 18% and 6%, respectively.

Granted, expenses were up 40% in the fourth quarter, more than analysts were expecting.  Research and development expenses accounted for half the growth, tied to a hiring spree in which Meta brought in some of the top AI scientists in the world to form a new AI lab.  Because of the expenses, fourth-quarter operating margin plunged to 41% from 48% last year.

Meta’s forecasted range for the full year sees expenses rising by 41% at the midpoint of the range, with capital expenditures hitting between $115 billion and $135 billion, compared to $72 billion in 2025 and about half that in 2024.

The capex is being used to build artificial-intelligence data centers, all for Meta’s use.  As he has for a year now, CEO Mark Zuckerberg began his prepared remarks on the earnings call by running down where he sees the return on investment from the spending surge.

Meta is giving no signs of slowing down.  “To date, we keep on seeing this pattern where we build some amount of infrastructure to what we think is an aggressive assumption, and then we keep on having more demand,” Zuckerberg said on the third-quarter earnings call three months ago.

“If we end up misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is going to be very unfortunate, obviously,” Zuckerberg said in September.  “But what I’d say is I actually think the risk is higher on the other side.”

—Apple reported its fiscal first quarter earnings on Thursday, beating Wall Street’s expectations on the top and bottom lines, on strong iPhone sales.

Apple’s iPhone revenue topped out at an all-time record of $85.3 billion in the quarter, well ahead of the $78.3 billion analysts were anticipating.  The company recorded iPhone sales of $69.1 billion in the same quarter last year.

But during Apple’s earnings call, CEO Tim Cook said that the global memory crunch is going to hit the company’s gross margins going forward.  Apple projects margins of between 48% and 49% in Q2.  Gross margins in Q1 were 48%.

The AI data center buildout has put a massive strain on the market for memory chips, which could impact the price of smartphones, laptops, and any other consumer or enterprise devices, unless manufacturers decided to swallow the cost.

Overall, Apple reported earnings per share of $2.84 on revenue of $143.8 billion, with consensus at $2.68 on revenue of $138.4 billion.

Apple’s Services business, it’s second-largest behind the iPhone, brought in $30 billion, in line with expectations.  Analysts were calling for $30 billion.  Mac and iPad revenue were $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, respectively, while Wearables revenue hit $11.5 billion.

Earlier this month, Apple and Google issued a joint statement saying that the iPhone maker will use Google’s Gemini models and cloud technology to power its AI efforts, including a more personalized Siri due out later this year.

Apple’s AI is lagging behind smartphone rivals Samsung, which also uses Google’s models. The company has been promising a fully revamped Siri since 2024, but has had to delay it until later this year due to quality issues.

—Tesla reported fourth quarter earnings that topped estimates after the bell on Wednesday.  The company also said its Optimus robots were on track for an end of year start of production.

For the quarter, Tesla reported revenue of $24.90 billion vs. $25.11 billion estimated, a 2.4% drop from a year ago.  Tesla posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.50 vs. $0.45 expected, with operating income of $1.41 billion vs. the Street’s $1.32bn.

Tesla’s gross margin came in better than expected at 20.1% vs. the 17.1% analysts estimated.

“Preparations continue in North America for the production ramps of Tesla Semi and Cybercab, both commencing 1H26, and production of the next-generation Roadster,” the company said in a statement, adding that it will ramp up six new production lines across all its products.

Tesla said it plans to unveil Optimus V3 in Q1 of this year, with start of production planned “before the end of 2026 and eventual planned capacity of 1 million robots per year.”

“It’s time to bring the Model X and S program to an end with an honorable discharge,” CEO Elon Musk said on the conference call, adding the production lines for those products will be for Optimus robots.

The company noted Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tamp, and Las Vegas would be targeted for robotaxi service in the first half of 2026.

Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q4 global vehicle deliveries of 418,227, a 15% drop from the 495,570 vehicles it delivered in the same period last year.

For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, in line with expectations and an 8% drop compared to 2024.

Cheaper vehicles like the standard versions of the Model Y and Model 3 couldn’t blunt several large headwinds. The loss of the EV tax credit at the end of Q3 in the U.S., new EV competition from legacy auto brands, and Musk’s polarizing politics all played heavily into Tesla’s sales slide.

It is no wonder that investors are counting on initiatives like Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi service, and Optimus robot as future catalysts for the stock.

–Dutch chip equipment maker ASML logged record orders in the fourth quarter on Wednesday and boosted its 2026 outlook as demand surged from its AI-focused customers even as it trimmed 1,700 jobs.

The job cuts, a rare move and representing 3.8% of staff, would mostly impact leadership in R&D departments in the Netherlands and U.S., said Europe’s largest company by market capitalization, with the move needed for technical agility.

Fourth-quarter bookings, the most watched metric in the industry, leapt to a record 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion), from 7.1bn euros a year ago.  The orders were nearly double analyst expectations.  Net quarterly profit of 2.84 billion euros ($3.39bn) fell slightly short of consensus.

The company raised its 2026 sales guidance to 34 billion to 39 billion euros, beating analyst forecasts for 35bn.

ASML holds a near-monopoly on the lithography machines crucial for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors.  The orders beat comes as ASML customers TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron boost investment plans amid demand for AI logic and memory chips needed by cloud computing giants such as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet’s Google.

—China has approved purchases of Nvidia’s popular H200 AI chip for the first time, giving authorization to several of Nvidia’s Chinese customers, according to multiple reports.

The long-awaited move came during a trip to China by Jensen Huang, CEO of the chip giant.  The Trump administration said late last year that Nvidia could sell the AI chip to Chinese companies, but it had been uncertain whether Beijing would allow the sales to go through.

The first approval covers several hundred thousand H200 chips, which would be worth around $10 billion.  Major technology companies including Alibaba and ByteDance received the initial batch of approvals, and authorities are expected to greenlight more imports in coming weeks.

Beijing’s decision is another sign of its recent rapprochement with Washington on some issues ahead of a visit by President Trump to China scheduled for April, after the two superpowers reached a trade truce in October.

—Boeing swung to a fourth-quarter profit on Tuesday, driven by the sale of its navigation software services provider, as well as rising jet output and stronger deliveries.

The company also recorded a $565 million charge on its KC-46 aerial-refueling tanker program due to higher estimated production support and supply chain costs.

While the profit swing was due to the unit sale, Boeing continued to increase output of its two most popular jetliners – the 737 MAX and 787 – and to resolve quality problems that have caused significant delivery delays at the planemaker over the last few years.

Boeing ended the year with 737 MAX production of 42 airplanes per month and is in the process of raising the 787 rate to eight a month.

BA earned a net profit of $8.22 billion, or $10.23 per share, for the quarter through December, compared with a loss of $3.86 billion a year earlier.

Across all jet programs, the company delivered 600 airliners last year, its most since 2018.  In the intervening years, Boeing was battered by the 737 MAX scandal, the pandemic, supply chain bottlenecks, a mid-air accident that exposed systemic quality and safety problems, and labor problems.

“With progress comes expectations, and our customers and stakeholders are going to expect more from us this year,” Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a memo to employees on Tuesday.  “And we should expect more from each other.”

He said the company needs to certify the 737-7, 737-10 and 777X and to make progress on fixed-cost defense and space programs that are behind schedule and have cost Boeing billions.

Boeing’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 57% to $23.95 billion compared with expectations of about $22.6bn.

—American Airlines Group expects its long-term investments in premium services to pay off in 2026, with the Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier’s purchase of premium-configured Boeing 787-9s and Airbus 321XLRs, along with the rollout of free Wi-Fi for AAAdvantage members and its exclusive partnership with Citi, that are anticipated to boost revenue this year.

CFO Devon May said in an interview: “These are things that we’ve been working on for years and they’re coming to fruition here.  All of that is going to be a tailwind for us in 2026.”

The company is already seeing double-digit revenue growth for the first three weeks of 2026 fueled by premium cabins and corporate channels.  For the current quarter, it expects revenue to grow between 7% and 10%.

For the full year, American said it expects adjusted earnings in 2026 of between $1.70 and $2.70 a share, with a midpoint ahead of analysts’ estimate of $1.97 a share.

The company expects to gain from the expansion of hubs in Philadelphia, Miami, and Phoenix, as well as its efforts to return to pre-pandemic levels in its Chicago hub of between 500 and 550 departures a day.

The outlook came as American on Tuesday reported taking a $325 million hit to its revenue in the fourth quarter from the government shutdown.

It is now expecting a revenue hit of between $150 million and $200 million in its current first quarter related to more than 9,000 flight cancellations from winter storm Fern, as well as a 1.5% reduction in capacity.

The shares fell 7% on the day, all airlines suffering due to Fern’s extensive impact.

—Southwest Airlines forecast a big boost for 2026 profits after shifting away from decades-old practices and embracing baggage fees and assigned passenger seating. It beat expectations for fourth-quarter results and projects a 300% increase in per-share profit this year.

The carrier reported Q4 adjusted earnings of 58 cents a share and record revenue of $7.4 billion.  Its full-year profit was 93 cents a share on a record $28.1 billion in revenue.

Assigned seating began this week ending more than 50 years of open seating (which I hated, personally) in a bid to reap the revenue other carriers have long collected for seat selection and other cabin accommodations.

Southwest did say it will take a hit in the first quarter, like all the other air carriers, from the monster storm.

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025

1/29…125 percent of 2025
1/28…117
1/27…85
1/26…79
1/25…74
1/24…72
1/23…104
1/22…131

–1/24-1/27’s numbers were impacted by the big storm.  There were about 11,600 cancellations within, into, or out of the United States on Sunday, the highest number since the pandemic, with another 6,300 on Monday and 2,700 Tuesday.  Newark Liberty International Airport and LaGuardia canceled about 45% of their flights Sunday and Monday.

Back on March 30, 2020, there were 22,751 flights scheduled, and 12,143 of them were canceled.

—Ryanair upgraded its fiscal 2026 guidance due to strong demand and earlier-than-expected Boeing aircraft deliveries.

The Irish low-cost carrier behemoth said it now expects fiscal 2026 traffic to grow by 4% to almost 208 million passengers, surpassing a previous forecast of 207 million.

It also said fares are trending ahead of the previous year, with full-year fares now expected to exceed the previously guided 7% growth.

Boeing deliveries have been improving, and Ryanair expects to receive the last four Boeing 737-8200s by the end of February, which would allow the carrier to fly 216 million passengers in 2027, it said.

The airline had revenue of $3.81 billion for its quarter ended Dec. 31, up 9% compared with the same period a year earlier.  About one-third of this total was ancillary revenue, which covers services such as baggage fees and food on board.

The airline flew 47.5 million passengers in the quarter, up 6% on year.  Fares increased 4% on average, while load factor stood flat at 92%, Ryanair said.

—General Motors continues its strong run of quarterly performance with fourth quarter earnings that topped estimates, as it upped its dividend and instituted a new $6 billion stock buyback plan.

For the quarter, GM reported revenue of $45.29 billion compared with the $45.37 billion estimated, a drop of 5.1% compared with the prior year.  The automaker posted Q4 adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 vs. $2.28 expected.

“We expect the U.S. new vehicle market will continue to be resilient, and with our compelling vehicles, technology-driven services, and operating discipline, 2026 should be an even better year for GM,” CEO Mary Barra said in a statement.

“We are operating in a U.S. regulatory and policy environment that is increasingly aligned with customer demand. As a result, we continue to onshore more production to meet strong customer demand for our vehicles,” Barra said.

Last quarter, Barra said the MSRP tariff offsets announced by the Whtie House last summer allowed it to boost profit guidance for the year. GM said its full-year tariff exposure came in at $3.1 billion, compared with the $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion it projected earlier.

Headwinds for 2026 include an additional $3.0 to $4.0 billion in tariff costs, GM said.

Noteworthy is GM claiming EV unit losses would improve by $1.0 to $1.5 billion.  Earlier in January, GM took an additional $6 billion charge to its electric vehicle business, citing softer-than-expected demand for EVs and the loss of the federal EV tax credit at the end of Q3 2025.

GM said full-size pickup sales were up for the sixth straight year, the best in 20 years. Sales of full-size SUVs like the Tahoe, Suburban, and Yukon also propelled GM to a category win in the segment for the fifth straight year.

However, GM said EV sales in Q4 fell a whopping 43% to just over 25,000 units, weighing on results.

–Shares in UnitedHealth on Tuesday forecast 2026 adjusted profit slightly above analysts’ estimates, in a sign that medical cost-control measures under CEO Stephen Hemsley were beginning to reap results.

But late Monday, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced that the payment rates for the government-backed Medicare Advantage (MA) plans will rise just 0.09% in 2027, well short of Wall Street expectations of an increase of up to 6%.

By contrast, the rate of increase of 5.06% for the current year is expected to net them more than $25 billion in extra revenue.

The payment rate ultimately dictates how much insurers can charge for monthly premiums and, by extension, their profits.

UnitedHealth shares cratered 20%, ditto provider Humana’s, also down 20% and CVS’ shares 14%.  It was a bloodbath.

Due to the lower rates, health insurers may be forced to introduce ‘member premiums’ for the first time on a significant number of plans, according to analysts.

It’s a huge blow to major health insurers, which altogether count on their Medicare Advantage plans for more than $500 billion a year in revenue.

CMS’ announcement is a ‘proposal,’ with a final ruling probably in April.  The proposed meager rate increase could rise by then under pressure from insurers, as you can imagine.

—Caterpillar shares rose 3% after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and investors looked past conservative initial 2026 guidance.

The machinery maker announced earnings per share of $5.16 on sales of $19.1 billion on Thursday.  The Street was at EPS of $4.71 from sales of $17.9bn.

A year ago, CAT reported earnings of $5.14 from sales of $16.2 billion.

As for guidance, Caterpillar said sales growth would be at the “top end” of targets in 2026 with operating profit margins around the “bottom of [its] target range.”

A bit cryptic, as CAT aims to grow sales at 5% to 7% annually through 2030.  Margins vary with sales.

The guidance translates into 2026 sales of about $72 billion with operating profits of between $12 billion and $13 billion.  Analysts currently project an operating profit of $13.3 billion and sales of almost $72 billion.

Caterpillar is benefiting from the boom in AI data center construction.

—United Parcel Service, one of America’s largest shipping and logistics companies, announced plans this week to cut 30,000 jobs in the coming year.

UPS CFO Brian Dykes cited poor fourth-quarter performance in an earnings call Tuesday, attributing it partially to decreased package volume from Amazon and the deadly crash of UPS Flight 2976 in Louisville on Nov.  4. Last year, UPS accelerated its mission of limiting its relationship with Amazon, aiming to cut the volume of packages it handles from the retailer by 50% by the second half of 2026.

The company saw the average daily volume of packages it handles plummet by 2 million pieces, Dykes said in the call, largely due to this Amazon action.

“We plan to reduce total operational hours by approximately 25 million hours,” said Dykes of the year ahead.  “…we expect to reduce operational positions by up to 30,000.”

UPS has likewise slated 24 buildings for closure in the first half of the year, with more expected to shutter later in 2026, he said.  Through these efforts, paired with an increase in automation, the company hopes to reduce 2026 spending by about $3 billion.

“We expect to offer a second voluntary separation program for full-time drivers,” added Dykes.

In 2025, UPS cut 48,000 jobs and offered a buyout to full-time drivers for the first time in company history in an attempt to create meaningful cost savings.  Tuesday’s announcement marks the third consecutive year of UPS workforce reduction.

The last quarter saw UPS bring in consolidated revenue of $24.5 billion, a decrease of 3.2% compared to the same quarter of 2024.

—Amazon said it would cut around 16,000 corporate employees, the latest step in the technology giant’s efforts to slim down its workforce.

The first round of cuts in October led to around 14,000 white-collar employees receiving pink slips.  At the time, people familiar with Amazon’s plans said the company was targeting around 30,000 job cuts, around 10% of the corporate workforce.

The layoffs come as job growth in the U.S. enters one of its slowest patches in years. Economic concerns and trade disputes have led many corporate chiefs to say they are postponing hiring decisions. Advancements in artificial intelligence have also led companies to try to do more with fewer workers.

Pinterest recently said it was laying off nearly 15% of its workforce as part of a plan to focus more of the company’s resources on AI-related roles.

Separately, Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI, in what would be a giant bet on the hot AI startup.

—Dow said it will slash about 4,500 jobs, or 13% of its total workforce, under a sweeping restructuring aimed at boosting profitability by at least $2 billion, while projecting first-quarter revenue below expectations on stubbornly weak demand.

Global chemical producers are reassessing their strategies amid stagnant demand, rising production costs in Europe, changing regulatory requirements and persistent global oversupply.

—JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America said Wednesday that they will match the Trump administration’s $1,000 contribution to so-called Trump accounts for thousands of their U.S. employees.

The tax-advantaged investment accounts are available for American children born between January 2025 and the end of December 2028 and come with a one-time $1,000 contribution from the U.S. Treasury.

A number of major U.S. companies have already announced plans to match the government’s $1,000 contribution, including Bank of New York, BlackRock, Intel, Charles Schwab, Dell Technologies, and Robinhood.

—Starbucks said its turnaround efforts are bringing more people to its cafes.

The world’s largest coffee chain reported growth in U.S. same-store sales across its regions in the three months ended Dec. 28, up 4%, the strongest showing since late 2023.

CEO Brian Niccol said his strategies to improve the company’s business are working and are running ahead of schedule as customer frequency improves.  Revenue increased 6% to $9.9 billion, a bigger jump than analysts had forecast.

“We have a plan. We have been working the plan, and the plan is working,” Niccol said during an investor call.

But those initiatives came with a hefty price tag, as investments in the company’s workforce and restaurants cause the profit to contract.  Tariffs on coffee imports also weighed on the bottom line.

Profits in the company’s fiscal first quarter declined 62% to $293.3 million.

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Tensions were rising all week as the Trump administration sent more forces to the region in response to Tehran’s brutal crackdown on protesters, raising the possibility of a military confrontation.

President Trump had signaled earlier this month that the U.S. would hold off on potentially striking Iran amid mounting protests that rocked the country.  He warned that if Iran continued to kill peaceful protesters, he would consider it a red line that would lead to U.S. intervention, but he said Iran had called off planned executions.

Then Trump warned late last week that the U.S. was sending an “armada” toward Iran, as reports indicate the death toll has continued to rise, surpassing 5,000, with thousands more thought dead.

“I’d rather not see anything happen, but we’re watching them very closely,” Trump told reporters.

The protests have largely fizzled amid the crackdown, in which the Iranian government shut down telephone and internet access and responded harshly to demonstrators.  Iranian officials have said they’re ready to respond if the U.S. intervenes, building on past warnings that Israel or U.S. bases could be targeted.

Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said his country has its “finger on the trigger” at the U.S., warning the U.S. and Israel to “avoid any miscalculation.”  Iran’s top prosecutor also called Trump’s claims that he was able to get the hangings of 800 detained protesters stopped “completely false.”

As I wrote last week, Trump turning away from the possibility of strikes this month came as reports indicated several allies (like Saudi Arabia and UAE) had warned him against attacking Iran and assessments concluded military action wouldn’t bring the end of the Iranian regime.

President Trump on Truth Social, Wed. AM:

“A massive Armada is heading to Iran.  It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela.  Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out and it is truly of the essence!  As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL!  They didn’t, and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter!  President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Back to the death toll, Human Rights Activists in Iran, the U.S.-based nonprofit, is one of the leading organizations documenting the fatalities. The group said Sunday it had confirmed and cross-checked the deaths of more than 5,500 protesters, and that it had another 17,000 under investigation based on evidence including photographs of bodies and testimony from its network of trained human rights documentarians inside Iran.

Skylar Thompson, the group’s deputy director, said the number of confirmed deaths reflects individuals the group has identified by name and the rough location of where they died.

“It’s definitely an absolute minimum,” Thompson said.  “The number will rise.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Airstrikes alone won’t bring down the regime – or make it behave like a normal country.  But Israel and the U.S. have shown in recent years that bombing can cause significant tactical setbacks.  And there is always more room for sanctions pressure. The Treasury Department announced (last) Friday that it will target nine vessels in Iran’s shadow fleet, which transports oil to foreign markets in violation of U.S. sanctions.

“The president cannot maintain effective deterrence by turning the other check. How he responds is just as important as how quickly he does it.”

Russia/Ukraine: Last Saturday, a Russian attack on Ukraine killed at least one person and wounded 23, as negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States were set to meet in Abu Dhabi for a second day of talks to end Russia’s nearly four-year full-scale invasion.

One person was killed and four wounded in Russian drone attacks on Kyiv while Russian strikes on Kharkiv injured 19.

“Cynically, Putin ordered a brutal massive missile strike against Ukraine right while delegations are meeting in Abu Dhabi to advance the America-led peace process,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X. “His missiles hit not only our people, but also the negotiation table.”

The talks were the first known instance that officials from the Trump administration have sat down with both countries as part of Washington’s push for progress.

After the two days of discussions, President Volodymyr Zelensky said they were “constructive,” talks centering around “possible parameters” for ending the war.  Negotiators were to return to the UAE for the next round on Feb. 1.

There was no agreement yet on a final framework for oversight and operation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is occupied by Russia and is the largest in Europe.

The power generated from the plant will be shared “on an equitable basis,” according to Ukrainian official, but control of it was still undecided.

Zelensky, meanwhile, said there was “an understanding of the need for American monitoring and control of the process of ending the war and ensuring real security.”

Saturday, Zelensky had written on X that in the past week alone Kremlin forces launched more than 1,700 attack drones over 1,380 guided aerial bombs and 69 missiles over various types at Ukraine.

Tuesday, a Russian drone attack on a crowded passenger train killed at least five people and injured several others.

More than 200 people were on the train, officials said, when one of the carriages was hit by a drone and two other drones exploded nearby, in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region.

President Zelensky said there was no “military justification” in targeting civilians.

Also Tuesday, the southern port city of Odesa was hit by dozens of drones, killing three and wounding dozens.  A key energy facility suffered “enormous damage” in the area.

Millions of people across Ukraine have been left without heating, electricity and water after the Russian assaults.

—Ukraine awaited signs Friday that Russia is abiding by a commitment that President Trump said it made to temporarily halt attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, as Kyiv and other regions are gripped by the coldest winter weather in years.

Trump said late Thursday that Vladimir Putin had agreed not to target the Ukrainian capital and other towns for one week, as the region experiences frigid temperatures that have brought extreme hardship to civilians.

Trump didn’t say when the call with Putin took place or when the moratorium would go into effect, and the White House didn’t respond to questions seeking clarity about the scope and timing of any limited pause. There was no confirmation from the Kremlin that Putin committed to the move.

—A study published on Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said that the number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded or missing during the nearly four years of war is on track to reach two million by this spring.

The study said that nearly 1.2 million Russian troops and close to 600,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed or wounded or were missing. That puts the overall casualty figure at 1.8 million.

The study relied on American and British government estimates, among other sources.

Israel: The remains of the final Israeli hostage in Gaza were recovered, clearing the way for the next phase of the ceasefire.

Monday’s announcement came a day after Israel’s government said the military was conducting a “large-scale operation” in a cemetery in northern Gaza to locate the remains of Ran Gvili.

The return of all remaining hostages, living or dead, has been a key part of the Gaza ceasefire’s first phase, and Gvili’s family had urged Israel’s government not to enter the second phase until his remains were recovered and returned.

Israel said Friday that it will reopen the pedestrian border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt in both directions over the weekend, marking an important step in the ceasefire plan.

Starting Sunday a “limited movement of people only” would be allowed through the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s main gateway to the outside world.

Syria: The Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces declared a ceasefire deal on Friday that sets out a phased integration of Kurdish fighters into the state, averting a potentially bloody battle and drawing U.S. praise for a “historic milestone.”

The sides announced the agreement after government forces under President Ahmed al-Sharaa captured swaths of northern and eastern Syria from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group this month, forcing the Kurdish forces to retreat into a shrinking enclave in the northeast.

The SDF was once Washington’s main Syrian ally, playing a vital part in the fight against ISIS. But its position grew weaker as President Trump built close ties with Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who has now brought almost all of Syria back under the authority of Damascus.

This is a real wait-and-see moment in terms of Islamic State and their presence in the country, as well as Sharaa’s behavior.

China: The senior-most general is accused of leaking information about the country’s nuclear weapons program to the U.S. and accepting bribes for official acts, including the promotion of an officer to defense minister, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The bombshell announcement last weekend that Gen. Zhang Youxia, once considered leader Xi Jinping’s most-trusted military ally, was under investigation rocked the country.

[Another senior officer, Liu Zhenli, was also placed under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.]

Zhang is under investigation for allegedly forming political cliques, a phrase describing efforts to build networks of influence that undermine party unity, and abusing his authority within the Communist Party’s top military decision-making body, known as the Central Military Commission.

Authorities are also scrutinizing his oversight of a powerful agency responsible for the research, development and procurement of military hardware.  Those familiar with a briefing said Zhang was alleged to have accepted huge sums of money in exchange for official promotions in this big-budget procurement system.

But the most shocking allegation was Zhang leaking core technical data on China’s nuclear weapons to the U.S.

Some analysts say Xi’s latest crackdown on corruption and disloyalty in the armed forces marks the most aggressive dismantling of China’s military leadership since the Mao Zedong era.

Analysts also say the opacity of China’s political system makes it difficult to ascertain Xi’s precise motivations for liquidating a longtime ally in the Chinese military, known as the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA.

A Saturday editorial by the PLA Daily, the military’s flagship newspaper, indicated the importance of political factors in the case against Zhang, whom the newspaper accused of having “severely trampled on and undermined” the institutional basis of the CMC chairman’s authority.  Which according to Lyle Morris, senior fellow for foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute, suggests that “Zhang had too much power outside of Xi himself.”

Xi has ultimate authority over the military, and Morris said, “highlighting such a violation suggests that Zhang was out of step with Xi’s chain of command.”

Xi, through his anti-corruption campaign, has decapitated the command structure.  Last year, China sacked nine senior military officials from the ruling party in a high-profile purge that removed several commanders and a member of the 24-man Politburo.

Zhang, 75, is one of a few Chinese generals with battlefield experience from brief border fights with Vietnam in the late 1970s and 1980s, the last time China has fought in a conflict.

The compromise of state secrets is also an existential threat to Xi’s goal of gaining control over Taiwan.

But hollowing out the senior ranks affects combat effectiveness and could lower the immediate risk of a cross-strait invasion. Xi could be looking to cut a deal with President Trump on Taiwan.  That’s why any wavering by Trump on Taiwan’s security will shake Taipei’s confidence in American resolve.

Venezuela: President Trump on Truth Social, Monday:

“I am pleased to report that Venezuela is releasing its Political Prisoners at a rapid rate, which rate will be increasing over the coming short period of time.  I’d like to thank the leadership of Venezuela for agreeing to this powerful humanitarian gesture!  PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the other hand, asserted the administration reserves the right to attack Venezuela again if its acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, doesn’t cooperate with the U.S.

Rubio told senators during a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that military action remains on the table, though the administration isn’t currently positioned to take such action.

Rubio also set low expectations for the potential pace of change in the country. He laid out the administration’s plan for Venezuela to transition from an authoritarian regime to a democracy, but he couldn’t give a timeline.

Rubio said the U.S. so far has sold Venezuelan oil for $500 million and pocketed $200 million of that money.  According to the secretary, “They have pledged to use a substantial amount of those funds to purchase medicine and equipment directly from the United States.”  As for the other $200 million, Rubio claimed it would eventually be transferred to a U.S. Treasury account.  When asked what U.S. law authorized that deal, Rubio replied that Venezuela had agreed to it.

Some lawmakers were particularly skeptical of the plan.  “You are taking their oil at gunpoint, you are holding and selling that oil,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told Rubio.  “You’re deciding how and for what purposes that money is going to be used in a country of 30 million people…I think a lot of us believe that that is destined for failure.”

Talk about the potential for corruption…in the U.S.!  We already know Venezuela won’t change its own corrupt ways with the government it has in place.

Random Musings

—Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove.  25% of independents approve (Dec. 1-15).

Rasmussen: 46% approve, 53% disapprove (Jan. 30).

—Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said Thursday she is running for governor, promising to take on Donald Trump while unifying a state enduring a series of challenges even before the federal government’s immigration crackdown.

“Minnesota, we’ve been through a lot,” Klobuchar said in a video announcement.  “These times call for leaders who can stand up and not be rubber stamps of this administration – but who are also willing to find common ground and fix things in our state.”

I’m a big Klobuchar fan.  I wanted her to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, but her early campaign didn’t take off. She is eminently qualified and should win handily.  [For the record, I was also a fan of Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.]

–As noted above, federal agents on Wednesday searched the main election office in Fulton County, Ga., seeking records related to the 2020 race, as the administration stepped up efforts to re-examine President Trump’s loss to Joe Biden.

The FBI confirmed that its agents were executing a “court authorized law enforcement action” at the center just south of Atlanta but offered no other details.  A Fulton County spokeswoman confirmed the warrant sought “a number of records related to 2020 elections.”

The FBI and the Justice Department under Trump have moved quickly to pursue investigations of his perceived enemies and political grievances, including his 2020 election loss to Biden.  Trump, as I noted last week, said in his Davos speech, pathetically, that “people will soon be prosecuted” for “rigging” that race against him.

Georgia election officials conducted two recounts, which confirmed Biden won the state in 2020.  No court or election authority found evidence of widespread fraud in the presidential election.

After Trump left office, Fulton County prosecutors in 2023 charged him and some of his allies with election interference in a wide-ranging racketeering case.  That case was dismissed by a judge in November after a new prosecutor determined there wasn’t enough evidence to support the charges.

“Every Georgian should be alarmed that Donald Trump is wielding federal law enforcement to push his baseless, dangerous lies about winning the 2020 election,” Georgia Democratic Party Chair Charlie Bailey said in a statement.

“This is an assault on your vote,” Fulton County Commissioner Mo Ivory said.

—Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“Well, that was an epic climbdown.  President Trump told Davos this week that he won’t move militarily to take over Greenland.  ‘People thought I would use force…I won’t use force.’

“It was insane that he might, a relief that he won’t, and people thought he would only because he’d implied as much, repeatedly.

“His speech to the World Economic Forum marked yet another tear in our old, ancestral, foundational closeness with Europe.  It is captured in this exchange, on separate days, to the same audience:

“Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Tuesday that traditional U.S. leadership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was over.  ‘We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.’ The ‘middle powers must act together – because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.’  He got a standing ovation.

“The next day, Mr. Trump ad-libbed: ‘Canada lives because of the United States.  Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.’

“That, obviously, isn’t how friends speak to each other….

“Mr. Trump has a real fear of boredom. When there’s peace and quiet, he becomes restless, anxious.  He seems unable to tolerate normality and shows little faith in quiet progress – set a good policy in place, tend to it as it settles. So he creates drama, he attacks, arouses counter-forces, feels fear – will my luck hold? – defeats the enemy, claims triumph and relaxes.  And becomes restless and creates new drama. Lather, rinse, repeat.  Life is drama, always has been. It used to be gambling casinos and bankruptcy, now it’s Venezuela and Greenland. But it’s the same prowling anxiety.

“It’s part of why this era feels so exhausting.  In the peaceful weeks you start to get nervous, because you sense trouble is coming….

“There’s his thinking on Europe. Mr. Trump often refers, justly, to his success in making NATO members increase their contribution to defense.  What was revealing in the Davos speech was how he honestly seems to feel about our allies.  America is always there for NATO, he said, ‘But I’m not sure that they’d be there for us.’  If the U.S. were under attack, ‘I’m not sure that they’d be there.’

“I wondered if Vladimir Putin whispers that kind of thing to him in their phone calls – Donald, you can’t trust your so-called friends. My second thought was what an insult it was.  It’s hard to walk back ‘I don’t trust you’ to a friend.  Third, how bleak… You make yourself weaker in the world when you lose foundational friendships.  It’s horrifying to witness their collapse.  If you have two friends who’ve been friends 20 or 40 years, and they break, and the rupture isn’t healed, you feel toward them embarrassment and a kind of shame.

“As is well known and has often been pointed out, everything is personal to Mr. Trump. The news is it isn’t getting less so.”

—President Trump then sparked outrage after he suggested that NATO allies avoided front-line combat during the war in Afghanistan, further straining an already tense relationship with some of our closest allies.

Going back to last Thursday, as I noted last week, Trump said in an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business that he wasn’t sure NATO would stand by the side of the U.S. if attacked, as he did in his Davos speech.  But he went further, diminishing the military alliance’s role in the conflict in Afghanistan.  “We’ve never needed them,” he said. “We have never really asked anything of them. They’ll say, they sent some troops to Afghanistan or this or that, and they did. They stayed a little back, little off the front lines.”

The remarks were met with astonishment.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the remarks “insulting and frankly appalling,” saying that he would “never forget” the courage and sacrifice of the 457 British soldiers who died in Afghanistan.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he took part in a remembrance ceremony of fallen Polish soldiers in Afghanistan in 2011.  “The American officers at the time said that America would never forget the Polish heroes,” he said.  “Perhaps they will remind President Trump of that.”

Following the criticism over Trump’s comments, the White House said only that U.S. contributions to NATO ‘dwarf that of other nations’ and that ‘the United States is the only NATO partner who can protect Greenland.’  Trump has said that he has saved NATO by urging its member countries to spend 5% of their GDP on defense.

Britain’s Prince Harry, who served two frontline tours in Afghanistan, weighed in:

“In 2001, NATO invoked Article 5 for the first – and only – time in history,” Harry said.  “It meant that every allied nation was obliged to stand with the United States in Afghanistan, in pursuit of our shared security.  Allies answered that call.  I served there.  I made lifelong friends there. And I lost friends there.  The United Kingdom alone had 457 service personnel killed.  Those sacrifices deserve to be spoken about truthfully and with respect, as we all remain united and loyal to the defense of diplomacy and peace.”

Trump’s dismissiveness echoed his insulting of Gold Star families of fallen soldiers in the U.S. during his first presidential campaign and his chiding of John McCain for being captured as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

So, Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“The GREAT and very BRAVE soldiers of the United Kingdom will always be with the United States of America!  In Afghanistan, 457 died, many were badly injured, and they were among the greatest of all warriors.  It’s a bond too strong to ever be broken. The U.K. Military, with tremendous Heart and Soul, is second to none (except for the U.S.A.!). We love you all, and always will!  President DONALD J. TRUMP”

—David Brooks / New York Times:

“It is heartbreaking that on the cusp of our 250th anniversary, we have a president who is perverting all the values our country was founded on – looking out for one another, respecting one another’s rights….

“The American leader is meant to be a unifier, a strong and soothing presence in the world.  Trump is an anarchic toddler, constantly causing upheaval across the globe, transgressing and remaking everything in his helter-skelter image. He has no interest in fireside chats; he wants to set fires.

“He’s more about droit du seigneur than noblesse oblige.  He feels entitled to whatever he wants, from Greenland to Canada to the Kennedy Center to a Nobel Prize he didn’t win.  Unlike previous presidents, he isn’t countering Russia; he’s catering to it.  He disparaged NATO troops who died for us in Afghanistan and belittled our nicest neighbor; claiming that ‘Canada lives because of the United States.’

“Demanding Greenland, which he kept calling Iceland, he whinged to global leaders at Davos: ‘All I want is a piece of ice.’

“The depth of his shallowness is infinite.”

—Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump likes to take credit for persuading NATO to spend 5% of GDP on defense, but in 2025 he didn’t ask Congress to meet that target. That changed this month as he said he’ll propose a military budget of $1.5 trillion.  It’s the right decision for a world of proliferating threats.

“For ‘the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times,’ he wrote on Truth Social, ‘our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars.’

“Yes, the U.S. already spends more on defense in dollars than other major powers. But the world is more dangerous than any time since Hitler and Tojo were marching through Europe and Asia. China and Russia are working together against the U.S. wherever they can. They’re helping anti-American regimes in North Korea, Iran and Latin America.

Most ominous, new technologies are proliferating in ways that threaten the U.S. homeland. These include hypersonic missiles, space and cyber weapons drones, and as ever nuclear weapons. All of this is before AI is weaponized in multiple ways….

“The opponents of spending more on defense make two main points: The Pentagon wastes too much of what it now spends, and the U.S. can’t afford it. On the first point, we’re all for making hard choices, and the Pentagon is making progress in reforming weapons production and purchasing. New contractors like Anduril will make a difference, especially if Congress prods the Pentagon to shape up.

“As for affording it, defense is now less than 13% of the federal budget, though it is the most fundamental duty of government.  A cradle-to-grave entitlement state won’t look so comfortable if America has to fight another war, never mind loses one. The real choice today is between guns and runaway entitlements.

“A $1.5 trillion budget request will be a heavy political lift, and to sell it Mr. Trump will have to level with the public that the U.S. military isn’t as dominant as he has claimed.  He’ll have allies on Capitol Hill if he makes the case. The best way to go down as a peacemaker is by building a military no one wants to fight.”

—The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that the United States population grew last year at one of the slowest rates in its history.  The immigration numbers plunged by more than 50 percent from the previous year, under the aggressive anti-immigration policies of the Trump administration.

The nation’s population increased by about 1.8 million over the year, and stood at 331.5 million on July 1, the estimates say.  That is a growth rate of about 0.5 percent the lowest since 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic caused deaths to soar and borders to close, shutting the door to international migration.  That year saw the slowest growth since the nation’s founding.

The new census estimates measure changes in the population from June 30, 2024 to July 1, 2025.

Over that time, net immigration added 1.26 million people to the U.S. population.  That number is considerably lower than 2024, when under President Biden, immigration reached a record high of 2.73 million.

—The human race is at its closest point yet to destroying itself, according to the reset of the symbolic “Doomsday Clock.”  The metaphorical clock now stands at 85 seconds to midnight after advancing four seconds since last year’s reset.

The clock is now the closest to midnight since its introduction in 1947. It is updated each year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which organizes the assessment of how close we are to a self-inflicted end of humanity.

Leadership of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists cited a worldwide “failure of leadership” for this year’s reset.

“The Doomsday Clock’s message cannot be clearer,” Alexandra Bell, president and CEO, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said.  “Catastrophic risks are on the rise, cooperation is on the decline, and we are running out of time. Change is both necessary and possible, but the global community must demand swift action from their leaders.”

Now who wants a beer.

—While the U.S. was digging out and slowly recovering from the weekend’s big storm (“Fern”) that dumped about 18 inches of snow in the Boston area, 11 in Central Park, nearly a foot at global HQ for StocksandNews, and, more importantly, left nearly one million initially without power in the South, the Nashville, Tenn., area particularly hard hit, and 400,000 without power in Mississippi and 150,000 in Louisiana…our friends up in the Great White North, namely Toronto, suffered through the biggest one-day snowfall in history, with Toronto Pearson International Airport receiving a record snowfall of 18+ inches, and other parts of the city up to 23 inches.

January is the snowiest month since records began in 1937 in Toronto.

In the U.S., Fern was responsible for at least 85 deaths, including seven killed in a plane crash in Bangor, ME, at the height of the storm.

At least five people died in Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey from shoveling snow, and that was after one day. I haven’t seen an update.

As for the brutal cold in the eastern half of the country, yes, in most areas in terms of longevity, we haven’t seen a stretch like this in decades.  New York City could set a new record for most consecutive hours under 32 degrees (though it could be close).

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4885…Silver $82.50…prices at 3:50 PM ET…it’s fluid, people…
Oil $65.85

Bitcoin $83,835 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]…another lousy week….

Regular Gas: $2.87; Diesel: $3.60 [$3.11 – $3.66 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 1/26-1/30

Dow Jones  -0.4% [48892]
S&P 500  +0.3%  [6939]
S&P MidCap  -1.4%
Russell 2000  -2.1%
Nasdaq  -0.2%  [23461]

Returns for the period 1/1/26-1/30/26

Dow Jones  +1.7%
S&P 500  +1.4%
S&P MidCap  +4.0%
Russell 2000  +5.3%
Nasdaq  +1.0%

Bulls 61.5
Bears 15.4

Hang in there. Stay warm.

Brian Trumbore