For the week 3/23-3/27

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,405

Polls show Americans are unhappy with the way President Donald Trump is handling the Iran War, including an extensive Pew Research Center survey of 3,524 U.S. adults, conducted March 16-22.

About six-in-ten Americans (61%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 37% approve.

On the issue of whether the initial decision to use military force was right, 38% said it was, 59% said it was wrong.

And by nearly two-to-one, more say the military action is not going well (45%) than say it is going extremely or very well (25%).

Of course there are stark partisan differences:

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict (90%) and say the U.S. made the wrong decision in striking Iran (88%).

In contrast, about seven-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners approve of how Trump is handling the conflict (69%) and think the U.S. made the right decision (71%).

Still, sizable shares of Republicans take the opposing views.

Republican-leaning independents, in particular, are divided.  For instance, roughly half (52%) approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 45% disapprove.

At the same time, a new AP-NORC poll found that 65% of Americans said it was ‘extremely or very’ important to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and another 23% said ‘somewhat’ important.  Americans get it.

[Sixty-seven percent also said it was ‘extremely or very’ important to prevent U.S. oil and gas prices from rising.]

What frustrates me is that the polling should be favorable for the president, not unfavorable.  He did an absolutely awful job in selling the public on what our Iran strategy was.

Even going back to the State of the Union Address, mere days before the war started….

President Trump claimed that Iran is working to reconstitute its nuclear program even as it negotiated with Washington, adding to speculation that he was preparing for a fresh round of military strikes in the coming days.

Iranian officials are “again pursuing their sinister ambitions” after U.S. airstrikes devastated the country’s nuclear program last year, Trump said.

“They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” Trump said.  “After Midnight Hammer, they were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons program, and in particular nuclear weapons, yet they continue. They’re starting it all over.”

But we were told after Midnight Hammer, last June, that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.”

Some of us knew, however, that we still had no idea where Iran’s enriched uranium was.  We knew from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s work that Iran had enough enriched uranium that was just a quick step away (assuming they still had the centrifuges) to make 10-12 nuclear weapons.

Of course, while you could produce a dirty bomb or two, weaponization, fitting it on a ballistic missile, was another story and a process that no expert in the U.S. thought Iran was close to achieving.

It’s about the messaging, which, starting last June, has been a total failure.  The IAEA, the experts in the field, haven’t verified the state of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium or assessed the scope of damage dealt to enrichment facilities for more than eight months because Iran has prohibited them from conducting their inspections.

President Trump hates the United Nations, and, no doubt, the UN has been an abject failure in many regards.

But the UN does three things well.  Deliver food aid to the desperate, such as in Africa; it has the World Health Organization, which can be invaluable in alerting the globe to looming disasters; and it has the IAEA under its umbrella.

What frustrates me to no end is President Trump should have been standing alongside IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in the Oval Office as the president was building up the ‘armada,’ and before the State of the Union.

It would have been so simple…and powerful.  Grossi, with maps, could show the president (and the assembled press corps), where the IAEA suspected Iran was hiding its uranium prior to Midnight Hammer, and then tell the American public that the IAEA and its experts have been prohibited from going back to the sites, nor to new ones the IAEA has long suspected could be areas where Iran is hiding it.

Trump and Grossi would have both said, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

I can guarantee the president’s approval rating on the conduct of the war thus far, despite the clear lack of planning in some respects, would be much higher if he had done this.

I’m a hawk…always have been.  I get it.  We need to get hold of the enriched uranium.

But I disagree a bit with something a leading figure who is on the airwaves a lot, venture capitalist / global strategist, Kyle Bass, said on CNBC earlier this week.

I follow Bass closely, agree with him 99% of the time, especially on the threat China poses, but he rather flippantly said the U.S. will seize Iran’s enriched uranium, making it out to be a relatively easy task…as in “we know where it is.”

Without regime change in Tehran, this is NOT going to be easy, yet it needs to be done, and the American public needs to be prepared.  This isn’t giving away secrets.

It’s not too late for Donald Trump to get together with Grossi in a very public fashion to explain the threat and the difficulty.  Be honest, be truthful.

Just do it, Mr. President!

—

Tale of the Tape….

Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Mar. 27…$100.04 [3:55 PM ET]

The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $113.

Nationwide average prices at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]

Friday, Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Friday, Mar. 27…regular gas $3.97…diesel $5.38 (43 cents shy of all-time high)

We will see $4.00 plus nationwide as early as tomorrow, if not, Sunday.

As it went down, day by day….

Trump on Truth Social, Fri. Mar. 20, 5:13 PM [45 minutes after I posted Friday’s WIR]

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.  (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.  (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.  (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.  (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.  The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it – The United States does not!  If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.  Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation once Iran’s threat is eradicated.  Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.  Thank you for your attention to this matter!  President DONALD J. TRUMP”

An hour before this post, the president rejected the idea of declaring a halt to hostilities and expressed confidence Hormuz would reopen “itself” despite allies’ reluctance to offer assistance.

“I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know, you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side,” Trump said at the White House.  “We’re not looking to do that.”

“NATO could help us, but they so far haven’t had the courage to do so. And others could help us, but we don’t use it,” the president said of the strait.  “At a certain point, it’ll open itself.”

Trump was evasive when asked by reporters about his plans for Kharg Island, Iran’ major oil export hub.  U.S. officials have said the White House is ordering hundreds of Marines to be deployed to the Middle East as it weighs a plan to seize the outpost.

“I may have a plan or I may not, but how would I ever say that to a reporter?” Trump said.

Trump’s post Friday followed an Iranian threat to attack recreational and tourist sites worldwide and another day of the airstrikes and drone and missile attacks that have engulfed the region.

The Pentagon has asked for an additional $200 billion from Congress to pay for the war, sending another mixed signal on how long the administration expects the conflict to last.

Trump on Truth Social, Sat. Mar. 21, 6:37 PM….

“The United States has blown Iran off of the map, and yet their lightweight analyst, David Sanger, says that I haven’t met my own goals.  Yes I have, and weeks ahead of schedule!  Their leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal. I don’t!  We are weeks ahead of schedule.  Just like their incompetent Election coverage of me, The Failing New York Times always gets it wrong!  President DJT”

Trump on Truth Social, Sat. Mon. 21, 7:44 PM….

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter.  President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqher Qalibaf said his country would make no such concession, warning of a retaliatory attack that would ramp up already-high energy costs across the world if Trump follows through with the blitz.

After Israel’s attack on the Iranian gas field known as South Pars, there appeared to be some daylight between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump saying he warned Netanyahu against the move: “I told him don’t do that.”

But Saturday, Trump was threatening to bomb Iran’s power plants himself.

Netanyahu, for his part, has remained unwavering: He sees the Islamic republic as a threat to Israel’s existence.  He’s still hoping the war leads to regime change. But if it doesn’t, he wants to leave Iran a wasteland.

Israel through its attacks on energy facilities, and the targeted killings thinning out the ranks of the Iranian government, seem to be aimed at weakening the regime so thoroughly that it leads to what some are calling “state collapse.”

Saturday, Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility was hit in an airstrike, the official Iranian news agency Mizan reported.  There was no radiation leakage, it said, as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week.

Natanz, Iran’s main enrichment site, was hit in the first week of the war and several buildings appeared damaged, according to satellite images.  The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog had said that “no radiological consequence” was expected from that earlier strike.

Israeli authorities then said they were investigating how an Iranian missile got through air defenses to make impact in the southern town of Dimona, injuring at least 47 people.

What was clear was why Tehran was aiming at the area, as 13km outside Dimona there is a facility that has long been accepted as holding Israel’s undeclared arsenal of nuclear weapons.  Officially, the site is said to focus solely on research.  But for around six decades, it’s been an open secret that Israel developed a nuclear bomb there, even if each succeeding government has maintained a position of ambiguity over this.

Iran confirmed that Dimona was the target, saying the strike was in response to what it said was an earlier attack against its nuclear facility in Natanz.

Also Saturday, Britain condemned “Iran’s reckless attacks” after its military fired missiles at the UK-U.S. air base on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

The attempted strike was unsuccessful, and it’s unclear how close the missiles came to the base, which is about 2,500 miles from Iran.

The distance gives the Trump administration some ammunition in its claim that Iran’s threat was imminent, because no one knew, it seems, that Iran had a capability this extensive.  Such a range puts Europe’s big capitals in play.

On Friday, the British government had given U.S. bombers permission to use UK bases, including Diego Garcia, in operations to prevent Iran attacking ships in the Strait.

Separately, Israel continued its bombardment of some of Beirut’s suburbs, the number of displaced people a human tragedy.  As of end of last week, the number of Lebanese killed had risen to more than 1,000, Lebanon’s health ministry said.

Israel’s military chief said on Sunday that its campaign against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed armed group in Lebanon, had only just begun, adding that Israeli forces would push deeper into that country.

Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, ordered the military to step up the demolition of bridges and houses in Lebanon, deepening fears that Israel is preparing for a long-term occupation.

Tehran on Sunday warned it will attack key infrastructure across the Middle East if President Trump followed through on his threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz swiftly reopens.

“Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the U.S. and the regime in the region will be targeted,” Iran’s military operational command said in a statement on Tasnim news agency Sunday.

The U.S. State Department issued a worldwide security alert Sunday, urging Americans across the globe to be wary of threats from Iran-linked group.

“The Department of State advises Americans worldwide, and especially in the Middle East, to exercise caution. Americans abroad should follow the guidance in security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate,” the State Department said in a statement.

“Periodic airspace closures may cause travel disruptions.  U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted,” the warning continued.

“Groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or locations associated with the United States and/or Americans throughout the world.”

This comes after an Iranian military spokesman issued a warning that Tehran terrorists will now be targeting popular tourism havens.

Some of the U.S.’s allies have started to signal willingness to help reopen the Strait after a strong push from Trump. The leader of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the Netherlands said in a letter last week that they would help in “appropriate efforts” to secure the strait.

But they have not said they would send war ships in to protect oil tankers through the area, which Trump had initially called for.

“We are seeing our allies come around as they should, but at the same time, the president is not going to stand for this regime, as it has threatened and tried for five decades to hold the world’s energy supplies hostage under its genocidal intent,” Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

Residents reported blackouts across large parts of Tehran after heavy airstrikes struck multiple areas of Iran’s capital early Monday.  It came shortly after Israel announced it would target Tehran’s infrastructure, without providing more details.

President Trump’s warning that if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened by Monday night, the United States would strike Iranian power plants was looming.

The United Arab Emirates reported drone and missile attacks by the Islamic Republic overnight into Monday.

Iran warned it will strike electrical plants across the Middle East if President Trump followed through on his threat to bomb power stations in the Islamic Republic, and as concerns grew in Tehran about the potential arrival of U.S. Marines in the region, Iran’s Defense Council warned against the idea of an invasion.

“Any attempt by the enemy to target Iran’s coasts or islands will, naturally and in accordance with the established military practice, lead to the mining of all access routes…in the Persian Gulf and along the coasts,” it said in a statement.

Trump on Truth Social, Mon. Mar. 23, 7:23 AM….

“I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.  BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

Stocks soared, bonds rallied (yields fell), oil (WTI and Brent) both collapsed.  Brent futures plunged to around $98 per barrel.  WTI futures hit $87.  Gasoline futures were over $3.30 and plunged to $2.95.

However, Iran’s Fars News Agency denied any negotiations, attributing Trump’s move to Iran’s threat to strike all West Asian power plants.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqher Ghalibaf then slammed Trump’s assertion that the U.S. had “very good and productive talks” with the Islamic Republic about ending the war.

“No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.

“Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” he added.  “All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved.”

Israeli officials had named Ghalibaf as Iran’s new point man, claiming he was speaking either directly or indirectly with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Trump then told reporters Monday morning from Florida that Iran’s denial was due to miscommunications because of the U.S.-Israeli bombardments that have killed dozens of members of Tehran’s leadership.

“The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces. They were unable to talk to each other, but we’ve had very strong talks,” Trump said.

“We were planning tomorrow on shooting down some of their power plants…hopefully we won’t have to do it.”

“I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to end up with a deal,” Trump continued.  “We’re giving it five days and then we’re going to see where it takes us.”

“At the end of this period it could very well end up being a very good deal for everybody.  As good as if we went all the way and just literally annihilated the place, which if we don’t have to do that would be a good thing not a bad thing.”

And…“If it goes well, we’re going to end up settling this. Otherwise, we just keep bombing our little hearts out.”

Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement: “We deny what U.S. President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The markets soared anyway.

Later Monday, the White House appeared to tamp down speculation surrounding the potential negotiations, with Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, telling the BBC in a statement:

“These are very sensitive diplomatic discussions and the U.S. will not negotiate through the press. This is a fluid situation, and speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final until they are formally announced by the White House.”

Iran then launched more missiles and drones targeting Israel and Gulf Arab states Tuesday.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will continue to strike Iran and Lebanon even as the U.S. considers a ceasefire.  “There’s more to come,” he said.

The Israeli military says it has struck the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been talking about the war this week to his counterparts in Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and Turkmenistan, his office said.

Pakistan is making a push to mediate an end to the war, and Trump has spoken with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir about the conflict, according to reports.  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a social media post on Tuesday that Pakistan would be “honored” to mediate the talks.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he’s also discussed the Iran war with Trump, including the conflict’s impact on the Strait, a key route for India’s energy imports.

But Arab countries in the Persian Gulf decided they did not want to act as mediators as long as Iran continued to attack their countries.

The New York Times reported that four Iranian officials said Araghchi told Steve Witkoff that Iran was not interested in a temporary cease-fire and wanted a sustainable peace deal, with guarantees that the United States and Israel would not attack it again.  The officials said the Iranians also sought specific economic sanctions relief from Washington, a topic that, in negotiations before the war, American officials said would only happen after Iran delivered on its nuclear and other commitments in any agreement.

But, as the Times reported, Trump’s characterization of these as “productive conversations” seemed to overstate the current state of the talks.

Israel pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs saying that it was targeting infrastructure used by the Iran-linked Hezbollah.

Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry said it had destroyed 19 Iranian drones targeting its oil-rich Eastern Province.

Tuesday, the spokesman of Iran’s top military command said that its armed forces will fight “until complete victory.”

The comments by Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters appeared related to President Trump’s announcement that there were negotiations ongoing between Tehran and Washington.

Iranian state television quoted Aliabadi as saying: “Iran’s powerful armed forces are proud, victorious and steadfast in defending Iran’s integrity, and this path will continue until complete victory.”

The general didn’t say what “complete victory” would look like, but it appeared likely that Iran’s military was trying to warn against offering concessions in any possible negotiations with the U.S.

Iran also named a former Iranian Revolution Guard member as the new secretary of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, replacing Ali Larijani, who was killed by an airstrike.

Iranian state television identified the new secretary as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr.

Tuesday night, various Iranian officials showed defiance with statements condemning the United States.

“The one who once spoke of regime change and the fragmentation of Iran now hopes that someone in Iran will engage in dialogue with him; though this, too, is merely an attempt at deception,” said Saeed Jalili, a spokesperson for Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in a post on X.

“International law is dead in practice – driven by Western double standards on Gaza vs. Ukraine and silence on Israel-U.S. aggression on Iran,” said Foreign Minister Araghchi in a post on X.

The spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the country’s main military command (without mentioning the U.S. and Donald Trump’s name) has talked about “the self-proclaimed global superpower” – saying “do not call your defeat an agreement.”

“You will see neither your investments in the region nor the former prices of energy and oil again, until you understand that stability in the region is guaranteed by the powerful hand of our armed forces. Stability comes through strength,” Ebrahim Zolfaghari said.

He added that “someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you.  Not now, not ever.”

Then we learned Iran has received a 15-point proposal from the U.S. to reach a ceasefire in the war, Pakistani officials said on Wednesday.  The officials described the proposal broadly as touching on sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, missile limits and access for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. An Egyptian official involved in the mediation efforts said the proposal also includes restrictions on Iran’s support for armed groups.

Iran rejected the plan, calling it “excessive,” Iranian state media reported.

Iran considers the ceasefire proposal delivered through intermediaries “unrealistic” and vows to end the war on its own terms, reported Press TV, Iran’s state-run English broadcasting service.

“Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met,” Press TV quoted the official as saying. The official added Iran will continue its “heavy blows” across the Mideast.

Foreign Minister Araghchi told state TV that his government has not engaged in talks to end the war, “and we do not plan on any negotiations.”

After Iran’s rejection, Egypt’s foreign minister called for continued negotiations and said Cairo is prepared to host negotiations.

Iran launched more attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries, including an assault that sparked a huge fire at Kuwait International Airport.

Tehran’s defiance came as Israel launched airstrikes on the Iranian capital.

Elements from the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters and a brigade combat team will deploy to the Middle East, the Pentagon confirmed in a statement Wednesday.

“We can confirm elements of the 82nd Airborne Division HQs, some division enablers and the 1st BCT will be deploying to the CENTCOM AOR,” a Defense Department spokesperson said, adding that “due to operations security we have nothing additional to provide at this time.”

The 82nd Airborne Division, based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, serves as the Army’s rapid-response force and is often among the first units sent to respond to emerging crises.

U.S. Central Command oversees military operations across the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria and the Gulf.

At least 1,000 troops are being sent.  It will mark the latest addition of American troops to the Iran war effort after U.S. officials recently said thousands of Marines aboard several Navy ships will be heading to the region.

Meanwhile, Iran said foreign ships are allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as long as they aren’t supporting acts of aggression against the country and follow regulations put in place by Tehran.

The nation made the comments in a letter circulated to members of the International Maritime Organization on Tuesday, adding that countries could benefit from safe passage “in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities.”

Iran has started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing the Strait, the latest sign of its control over the critical waterway.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence called this a “de facto ‘toll booth’ regime.”

The shipping intelligence firm said vessels have to provide manifests, crew details and their destination to Iran’s Guard for sanctions screening, cargo alignment checks that currently prioritizes oil over all other commodities, and for what is described as ‘geopolitical vetting.’”

“While not all ships are paying a direct toll, at least two vessels have and the payment is settled in yuan,” Lloyd’s List said, referring to China’s currency.

Supreme Leader Khamenei has already said Iran should keep the Strait shut.

U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, who heads U.S. Central Command, said his forces have hit more than 10,000 targets since Israel and the U.S. started the war Feb. 28, destroying 92% of Iran’s largest ships and more than two-thirds of the country’s missile, drone and naval production facilities.

Notice Adm. Cooper said two-thirds, not 99% as some White House officials, and the president, have said.

[Some analysts have observed that talk of number of targets hit, smacks a little of former Defense Secretary Robet McNamara’s descriptions of U.S. progress during the early years of the Vietnam War.]

Thursday, Israel said it killed the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy, Alireza Tangsiri, along with senior Iranian naval command officials, in overnight strikes.  Tangsiri was “directly responsible” for mining and blocking the Strait, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said.

The U.S. and Israel temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, U.S. officials said.

An Israeli soldier was killed in action in southern Lebanon.

Iran signaled it could move to close or control a second key waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait*, with the help of Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

*The strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

President Trump on Truth Social, Thurs. 6:39 AM:

“The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’  They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’  WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!  President DJT”

Twenty minutes earlier, Trump posted:

NATO NATIONS HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP WITH THE LUNATIC NATION, NOW MILITARILY DECIMATED, OF IRAN.  THE U.S.A. NEEDS NOTHING FROM NATO, BUT ‘NEVER FORGET’ THIS VERY IMPORTANT POINT IN TIME! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks.

“Nearly one month into the war, the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter.  White House officials planned a mid-May summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing with the expectation that the war would be concluded before the meeting begins, some of the people said,” the Journal reported.

“The problem is Trump has no easy options for ending the war, and peace negotiations are at a nascent stage….

“Trump told an associate that the war was distracting from his other priorities, one of the people said.

“The president appears ready to shift to his next big challenge, another person who spoke to him recently said, though Trump didn’t say what that might be.  Some allies are hopeful he can pivot to ousting the communist regime in Cuba, while close advisers want him to focus on the most pressing issue facing voters: concerns about the cost of living, which have been exacerbated by the war.”

I have more on the Xi-Trump summit below.

And then at 4:11 PM ET, Thursday, after the markets closed, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time.  Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

It was reported that the Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, on top of the now estimated 6,000 or so already on their way (the previously announced Marines and Airborne forces).

Trump announced Iran allowed several Pakistani-flagged oil tankers through the Strait, a gesture Trump called a “present” to the U.S., the “big present,” which we already knew about!  Iran was letting tankers through headed to China, India and Pakistan.  That’s no longer news. It’s also still a drop in the bucket to the oil shortfall we are experiencing.

Meanwhile, Israel continued to pound both Iran and Lebanon, with the Israel Defense Forces saying they targeted 20 “launch sites” in western Iran, while launching a “wide-scale” wave of strikes against the city of Isfahan and several other areas.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reports that the death toll since the conflict began has risen to over 1,100 as the IDF continues to attack southern Lebanon, with both strikes and military forces on the ground.

Israel is trying to carve out a buffer zone inside neighboring Lebanon that is deep enough to put communities in Israel out of reach of Hezbollah.  But the strategy requires massive manpower and risks entangling it in a long and unpopular occupation.

–“What we have seen in recent days in the Middle East risks reaching a point of no return,” a new statement from the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross warned on Monday.

Mirjana Spoljaric Egger says, “war on essential infrastructure is war on civilians” and adds “we are seeing energy, fuel, water and health-care infrastructure damaged and destroyed.”

“Most alarming” is the potential damage to nuclear sites, she says, which “could trigger irreversible consequences.”

“Respecting the dignity of civilians is the basis for de-escalation and political solutions from which peace and stability can be built,” the ICRC president added.

—The Iraqi government on Wednesday accused the U.S. of attacking a clinic on a military base in western Anbar province, killing seven members of the Iraqi military and injuring 13.  The incident could strain relations between the two nations at a critical time.

The airstrike constituted “heinous aggression,” to which Iraq reserved “the right to respond by all available means,” said a spokesman for the commander of Iraq’s armed forces.  It “undermines the relationship between the peoples of Iraq and the United States of America,” he added.

The accusation comes as U.S. military officials continue to investigate a deadly strike last month on an elementary school in southern Iran that left at least 175 dead, mostly children, according to Iranian officials.

—Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“As the latest Gulf war intensifies and its economic consequences grow, two things seem clear. First, many Iran doves seriously underestimated the risks and costs of attempting to coexist with the regime. Second, many Iran hawks seriously underestimated the risks and costs of opposing Tehran’s drive for regional hegemony through military action. The result is a war that is more necessary than doves thought and harder to wage than hawks supposed.

“Iran doves in past U.S. administrations hoped that a mix of conciliation and deterrence would allow America to coexist with Iran. Those hopes reflected confidence that Iran’s sophisticated civil society would ultimately either overthrow the Islamic Republic or drive its evolution in a more moderate direction.  They also reflected legitimate concern about the costs and risks of military conflict with a country almost four times the size of Iraq and close to double Iraq’s population.  Under the circumstances, kicking the can down the road in the hopes that something might turn up looked to a lot of smart people like the best of bad options….

“Iran hawks united around two ideas. The first was that the commitment of Tehran’s rulers to dominate the Gulf made long-term coexistence between Washington and the mullahs impossible. The Iranian regime was committed to a revolutionary religious vision and determined on economic and geopolitical grounds to seize control of the Gulf region to become a world power.  Tehran was hell-bent on developing military capabilities and networks that, at some point, would pose unacceptable threats to free navigation of the Gulf – and of global access to its fossil fuels and other commodities.

“The hawks’ second point was that the security of the Gulf remains a vital American interest.  We may not need its oil and gas ourselves, but between the consequences to the American economy and financial markets of an interruption in supply to key economic partners and allies and the importance of certain non-oil imports from the region (like fertilizer), the U.S. needs to keep the Gulf open.

“Currently, Iran’s ability, at least temporarily, to close the Gulf and inflict major damage on its neighbors, even after airstrikes from Israel and the U.S., underscores the unacceptable danger that Iran’s military power poses to the region. At the same time, the massive economic result of the closing highlights the reality that American interests remain inextricable bound up in freedom of navigation (and security of production) in and around the Gulf….

“Mr. Trump has weathered many crises. The Iran war is the greatest – and gravest – challenge he has faced.  Harry S. Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson and George W. Bush could all tell him how difficult war leadership can be in a divided America….

“(As World War II) grew more brutal and costly in 1943, FDR told the country that ‘Dr. New Deal’ would have to step back to make room for ‘Dr. Win-the-War.’

“Mr. Trump launched what he expected to be a short war.  One hopes that optimism proves justified, but if the war continues for more than a few additional weeks, he will need to build broader support abroad and at home to carry it through – while keeping his MAGA base united behind him.  That’s a tough assignment, but nobody ever said being president of the U.S. was an easy job.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…Thursday evening….

“President Trump likes to administer sanity tests before he escalates. Nicolas Maduro flunked his in December by spurning every way out he was offered.  The President did the same with Iran in June and again in February.  We thought U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s nuclear ‘term sheet’ was too generous. That the Ayatollah rejected it anyway told Mr. Trump all he needed to know.  The late Ali Khamenei’s successors now risk making the same mistake.

“Iran is being pounded by two powers whose aircraft it is powerless to stop.  Each day the damage increases, its capabilities decline, and its neighbors turn further against it. From this dire position, the regime has been offered a cease-fire that reportedly includes the removal of all sanctions. All it has to do is give up the nuclear, missile and proxy capabilities to continue its ‘death to America’ foreign policy.

“By scorning this offer, as Iranian officials now suggest they’ll do, the regime makes the case for President Trump to give the war more time and see the mission through….

“U.S. Marines will (soon) be in the theater, some 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne to follow.  [Ed: and as I wrote above, possibly 10,000 more soldiers.]  This could get much worse for Iran’s regime.

“Iran’s rulers know this, but they are betting that energy-market turmoil will lead Mr. Trump to end the war before U.S. objectives are fully met.  The President has shown himself to be sensitive to oil and gas prices, and his rhetoric about the war already being won encourages the belief that it will end any day now.  On Thursday he extended his reprieve for Iran’s energy sites again to April 6.  These may be moves to calm investors, but the cost is reflected in continuing Iranian intransigence.

“These also aren’t the only messages Mr. Trump transmits.  ‘We have a lot of time,’ he said last Friday.  He has explained that higher oil prices are worth paying for a period to keep Iran from a bomb, and that ‘we got to finish the job’ because ‘we don’t want to go back every two years.’  Precisely….

“Iran’s veto on global energy flows has yet to be challenged; on the contrary, toll-paying nations are deferring to it. Iran’s two key nuclear targets also remain untouched.  Those are the stockpiles of fissile material and the deep underground Pickaxe Mountain site that could in time be used to enrich it to weapons-grade.

“Trump Administration officials tell us what the President surely knows: Four weeks of war have yielded valuable successes, but to end now would be an incomplete victory. Additional weeks can further degrade Iran’s capabilities and set back the regime’s threat to the region for years even if it survives.

“The U.S. and Israel took action because Iran’s fanatical regime threatened them, the region and the world. Waiting would have increased the danger. In response Iran’s regime has done what it does best: Take hostages.  Tehran has tried to take hostage its neighbors, the Strait of Hormuz and the global economy with it. Seeing the mission through is a better option than chasing the regime with offers of ransom.”

—

Wall Street and the Economy

We literally had zero economic news this week, at least of the variety I have historically reported on for 27 years and running for this site. I’ve only ever noted market-moving data, whether it’s inflation/PCE, retail sales, manufacturing/service sector, housing, trade (these days), and jobs.

Of course, these days it’s all about oil, and newfound inflation fears.

Next week lots of stuff, including ISM numbers, retail sales and a key jobs report.

The stock market is closed next Friday, but the bond market is open until noon, and we will receive the March labor figures Friday morning.

Last Saturday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a taped video accepting the Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award, lauded the former Fed Chair for his “willingness to resist” political pressure as he fought inflation in the 1980s, remarks that resonate as Powell presses his own defense of the Fed’s independence amid the administration’s efforts to get him to lower rates, let alone step down.

“His actions remind us that independence and integrity are inseparable – we need independence to do what is right, and we need integrity to use that independence wisely,” Powell said.

“Ultimately, each of us will want to look back at the arc of our lives and know that we did what was the right thing,” Powell added.  “As Paul Volcker showed throughout his career, in the end, our integrity is all we have.”

So true, Chair Powell.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is down to 2.0%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has surged to 6.38%, up from 6.22% last week and the highest since last September.

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMI readings for March in the eurozone this week, courtesy of S&P Global, with the manufacturing index at 51.7, services 50.1 (10-month low…50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).

Germany: manufacturing 53.7 (49-mo. high), services 51.2 (7-mo. low).
France: mfg. 48.5, services 48.3. …yuck….

UK: mfg. 50.1, services 51.2…big dips from Feb.

Chris Williamson, chief economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth. Firms’ costs are rising at the fastest rate for over three years amid the surge in energy prices and choking of supply chains resulting from the war. Supplier delays have jumped to their highest since mid-2022, largely linked to shipping issues….

“The outlook depends on the duration of the war and any potential lasting impact on energy and supply chains, but the flash PMI data underscore how the European Central Bank is no longer in a ‘good place’ with respect to growth and inflation, and will have to tread a cautious path with respect to policy in the face of a clear and rising risk of stagflation in the coming months.”

Welcome back, Mr. Williamson!  We missed you. 

[There no longer seems to be a connection between Hamburg Commercial Bank and S&P Global.  Always liked Mr. Williamson’s commentary.]

Denmark: Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen handed in her coalition government’s resignation after suffering a massive election defeat, but could still emerge as leader of a new cabinet in the coming weeks.

Frederiksen’s Social Democratic Party had its worst election since 1903 on Tuesday, winning just 38 seats in the 179-seat parliament – down from 50 four years ago – amid voter concerns over migration, a cost-of-living crisis and welfare.

Such domestic policy issues overshadowed the support for Frederiksen’s defiant stance toward President Trump’s repeated ambitions to acquire Denmark’s semi-autonomous territory Greenland.

The Social Democrats remain Denmark’s biggest party with 21.9% support, meaning Frederiksen is widely seen as having a good shot at returning for a third term as prime minister, albeit following tough and lengthy coalition talks.

Nothing from China worth reporting on the data front. Next week we get PMI data from here.

Japan’s flash PMI readings for March had manufacturing at 51.8, services 52.8.

February inflation came in at 1.3% (annualized), 2.5% ex-food and energy.

Street Bytes

—Stocks fell a fifth straight week, with an ugly Thursday and Friday more than offsetting Monday’s fake rally.

The Dow Jones lost 0.9% to 45166, the S&P 500 2.1% and Nasdaq 3.2%.

There was a big spike in S&P futures trading at around 6:50 a.m. ET Monday morning, with a similar pattern in oil markets.  Fifteen minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.

Yup, insider trading, but it won’t be investigated.

[Trump, after Thursday’s close, issued the above-cited post he thought would move the markets higher on Friday, his ‘pause’ in striking Iran’s energy facilities, giving negotiations a further chance, and the market tanked…oil surged anew.  Kind of funny, actually.]

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.70%  2-yr. 3.91%  10-yr. 4.44%  30-yr. 4.98%

The yield on the 2-year, Friday, Feb. 27 before the war started, was 3.38%.  The yield on the 10-year was 3.96%.

–Last Friday, the Department of Treasury issued a general license for Iranian energy that’s already on vessels, authorized through April 19.  That follows similar moves for Russian oil on the water.  Which is outrageous.  [By the way, do not trust anything Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says on this topic, or anything else.]

Meanwhile, Monday, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, speaking at a conference, said: “There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves of oil.”

The market is trading on “scant information” and “perception,” Wirth said. The physical supply of oil is tighter than the futures contracts suggest, he said.

“We got a lot of oil and gas now that is not flowing into the market,” the CEO added.  “There really is a difference in terms of physical supply this time versus prior incidents.”

It will take time to rebuild inventories even if the Strait reopens, Wirth said.

“How quickly that production can actually come back online is an uncertainty that we’re going to have to deal with as we go forward.  It’s going to take some time to come out of this.”

This is Chevron’s CEO.  He kind of knows his stuff.

Another who knows the industry, Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, the CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., told the conference Wirth spoke at that even after the war ends, it will take months for Iran and its Middle East neighbors to return to their full pre-war oil production levels.

Analysts estimate that more than six million barrels of oil production a day, and perhaps more, has already been shut in by Gulf countries.

Al-Sabah said attempts to reroute oil supplies around Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz are “not even a stopgap.” Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are using pipelines to reroute oil away from the Strait, while the U.S. and others are releasing strategic petroleum reserves.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Ol Company, said there is no alternative to fully reopening the Strait. “This is not a supply issue.  It is a security issue,” he said.  “We cannot trade our way out of this crisis.”

United Airlines Holdings Inc. CEO Scott Kirby warned of $175 oil prices that would dramatically drive up jet-fuel expenses, outlining worst-case scenarios even as the aviation industry benefits from current record travel demand.

The already elevated price of jet fuel is prompting the airline to cut 5 percentage points of capacity in the near term where routes are temporarily unprofitable, Kirby told staff in a memo late last Friday.  At the same time, he said the carrier is strong enough to weather a crisis and won’t defer investments or furlough workers.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks,” Kirby told employees in the memo.  “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11B in annual expense just for jet fuel.  For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”

The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that at least 40 critical energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely damaged” – threatening to keep oil prices higher for longer even if the war ends soon.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said it would take time to repair damage incurred at oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines since the war broke out on Feb. 28.

BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito, piling on, said investors may be underestimating the risks stemming from the Iran war, which are likely to weigh on growth and drive inflation higher even if the conflict ends soon.

Growth could be hit by as much as two percentage points, while inflation may rise by a similar margin even if the war ends shortly, Kapito warned at the Asia Pacific Financial and Innovation Symposium in Melbourne on Thursday.

Oil may still spike to $150 a barrel even “if we announce tomorrow the war is over,” as it would take time for disrupted supply chains to return to full capacity.

“My biggest concern is that people aren’t looking (at the possibility of an extended disruption) – they’re just making the assumption” for an optimistic outcome.

—The fertilizer market is undergoing a crisis of its own due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  The focus has been on urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer used on corn. Prices for the nutrient have surged as the war blocks shipments, sending farmers scrambling to procure supplies.  The chaos has also created a shortage of phosphate fertilizers – key for crops like soybeans, a cornerstone of food production.

The Middle East accounts for about a fifth of global trade for three key phosphate products, according to the Fertilizer Institute. But almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur – which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer – comes from countries in the Middle East vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait.

The effects along the supply chain could start to be “exponential” if the conflict continues for much longer, once producers work through existing sulfur and sulfuric acid reserves.

That’s bad news for the global food supply, which counts on phosphate to support the growth of everything from soybeans to potatoes.

Nearly 80% of the U.S. phosphorus is applied to its soy and corn fields, which in turn are processed both into livestock feed and fuel.

—President Trump on Truth Social, Sat. Mar. 21, 6:13 PM

“The Democrats want to give our Country away to the illegals who they allowed to pour through our now very strong Border.  I won’t allow that to happen.  The Democrats are grossly incompetent! ICE is ready to go on Monday. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Monday saw the start of ICE officers being deployed at many airports to assist understaffed TSA workers.

NBC News reported DHS said the overall TSA call-out rate neared 12 percent Sunday, with more than 3,450 agents not coming to work, and it only got worse the rest of the week.  But the rate at some of the country’s most major airports was much higher, with more than 40 percent of agents calling out at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

The call-out rates at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston and John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City topped a third of staff.

Wednesday, acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told a House committee that TSA experienced a 25% increase in officer separations, with more than 480 TSA officers having quit during the shutdown, warning that the figure is rapidly growing.

Long term, she expressed concern that the shutdown could wear down TSA’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks.

Given the six-month training requirement for TSOs, McNeill said she was particularly worried that the funding lapse is undermining preparations for the 2026 World Cup, which kicks off in June.

“As the shutdown drags on, we will likely see our attrition rates continue to spike, which means that we may not have the adequate headcount to staff the airports that are supporting the FIFA locations adequately,” she explained.

President Trump then said late Thursday that he would sign an executive order to free up money to pay TSA workers, moving to break the deadlock in Congress centered on a dispute over immigration-enforcement policies and funding.

Trump didn’t specify what powers he was using to get the TSA workers paid.  It was also unclear how long it would take to hit the workers’ bank accounts.

With members of Congress eager to leave town for a two-week spring recess, the Senate unanimously passed a bill at 2 a.m. this morning to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, securing a path to ending the weekslong shutdown that has left the airports in turmoil.

The eleventh-hour agreement provides money for all of DHS except for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol, but as part of the so-called “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” passed last year, ICE and Border Patrol already received big cash infusions.  So, they both remain operational.

It was then up to the House to pass it before going to the president’s desk.

A ban on mask-wearing and requirements for judicial warrants for immigration raids were among the demands left out of the final deal (though it did include some accountability measures for DHS).

Senate Democrats ultimately became comfortable with ending a shutdown without the concessions they’d repeatedly said were nonnegotiable at the start.

But as of the posting of this column, Friday, the House was at a standstill, as it was Republican members who were holding up passage.  House Speaker Mike Johnson called the Senate plan a “joke.”

I expect President Trump to be active tonight. He signed the executive order, but more is needed.

–As for the accident at New York’s LaGuardia Airport Sunday night that killed the two pilots of an Air Canada plane that collided with a fire truck, it’s just a miracle there were not more fatalities, including on the fire engine, where the two first responders were seriously injured but were expected to make full recoveries.

Then there is the flight attendant, Solange Tremblay, who survived being thrown from the plane hundreds of feet still strapped in her seat.  It’s a “total miracle,” her daughter said Monday in an interview with a Canadian news station.

Sarah Lepine said her mother has multiple fractures to one leg and will need surgery but otherwise is OK.  An aviation safety expert said she likely was helped by being in a seat with a four-point restraint used by crew members.

“I’m still trying to understand how all this happened,” Lepine said, “but she definitely has a guardian angel watching over her.”

The preliminary investigation’s findings, revealed Tuesday, suggested the collision was caused by an overlapping series of failures that stemmed from problems with staffing and technology, officials from the National Transportation Safety Board said on Tuesday.

“When something goes wrong, it means many, many things went wrong,” Jennifer Homendy, the board’s chairwoman, said at a news conference.

The fire truck that collided with the Air Canada jet did not have a transponder, unlike similar trucks at airports across the United States. That made it difficult for the airport’s early-warning systems to track its position.  Investigators do not know if the drivers’ heard commands from air traffic controllers, which began roughly nine seconds before the accident, to stop the vehicle.

Another system, known as ASDE-X, issued no alert to the two controllers in the tower due to “the close proximity of vehicles merging and unmerging near the runway,” Homendy added.

And the two controllers on duty on Sunday night were doing the jobs of four people.  Ms. Homendy said such a practice was common during night shifts at airports across the country, but that the N.T.S.B. had raised safety concerns about it many times.  This practice was also an issue in the January 2025 midair collision between a commercial jet and an Army helicopter above Ronald Reagan National Airport, she said.

The haunting recordings of the event included this conversation between the controller and a pilot of a Frontier flight.

“That wasn’t good to watch,” the pilot can be heard saying over air traffic audio.

The controller replies that he tried to get the truck to stop, adding “we were dealing with an emergency earlier.  I messed up.”

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025

3/36…116 percent of 2025 level
3/25…110
3/24…84
3/23…93
3/22…115
3/21…90
3/20…100
3/19…117

—A New Mexico jury on Tuesday found that Meta Platforms was liable for failing to protect young people from online dangers, including sexually explicit content, solicitation and human trafficking.

The jury found Meta liable for misleading consumers about the safety of its platforms and endangering children, under the state’s consumer protection laws.  The jury ordered a maximum penalty for each violation, totaling $375 million in civil penalties.  Meta made 160 times that amount of revenue in its most recent quarter.

The case was among the first to test questions about whether social-media companies should be held responsible for the content posted on their platforms.  New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torrez said this is the first time a state has prevailed at trial against a major tech company for harming young people.

“The jury’s verdict is a historic victory for every child and family who has paid the price for Meta’s choice to put profits over kids’ safety,” Torrez said.  “Today the jury joined families, educators, and child safety experts in saying enough is enough.”

The case was one of dozens of similar lawsuits filed by state attorneys general against Meta and other platforms.

Meta disagrees with the verdict and plans to appeal, a company spokesman said Tuesday.

“We work hard to keep people safe on our platforms and are clear about the challenges of identifying and removing bad actors or harmful content,” Meta spokesman Andy Stone said.  “We will continue to defend ourselves vigorously, and we remain confident in our record of protecting teens online.”

During the weekslong trial, New Mexico prosecutors presented internal Meta documents and testimony that it said showed the company ignored warnings about the dangers of its platforms.  They allege design features let pedophiles engage with children, and that the sites were designed to intentionally addict children to using them.

Tuesday, a 20-year-old woman then prevailed in a landmark social-media trial against Meta Platforms and Google’s YouTube in which the companies were accused of designing their apps to be addictive and harmful to adolescents.

A jury found Instagram’s owner Meta and YouTube negligent for operating a product that harmed kids and teens and failed to warn about those dangers.

The jury ordered the companies to pay $3 million to the plaintiff, a 20-year-old woman named Kaley G.M., who testified that social-media use that started before she was a teenager, had dominated her life for years and contributed to mental health issues including anxiety, depression and body dysmorphia.  [I had to look up the definition of ‘body dysmorphia,’ which is the all-consuming obsession with one or more perceived minor or non-existent physical flaws.]

The jury also determined that additional punitive damages were warranted. Separate proceedings will take place on that award, which could significantly increase the amount the companies have to pay.

The verdict came as Meta was laying off around 700 employees on Wednesday, after less than 24 hours earlier, the company unveiled a new stock program for six top executives that could increase compensation for some of them by as much as $921 million each over the next five years.  Meta said the move was a way to retain talent in the A.I. era and push it toward ambitious growth.

Meta has been trying to move beyond its social media and metaverse businesses.  Mark Zuckerberg has declared that he is striving to create “superintelligence,” or a godlike A.I. that can act as the ultimate personal companion.

Last year, Mr. Zuckerberg shelled out billions of dollars to hire a team of A.I. specialists, while the company said it planned to cut 10 percent to 15 percent of Reality Labs, its division making virtual reality and metaverse products.

—Elon Musk announced last weekend that at a defunct power plant in Texas, he plans to build a semiconductor manufacturing plant that is to be a joint venture between Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX, his ‘Terafab’ AI chip project.

The initial stages of the project will cost tens of billions of dollars.  Tesla is planning to spend about $20 billion on new equipment in 2026, up from less than $9 billion in 2025. Terafab spending is not part of the 2026 forecast.

The project is needed to meet a coming shortfall of advanced chips capable of powering AI applications, including robo-taxis and robots.  Musk believes 80% of Terafab’s output will end up in space, where SpaceX will be doing AI computing that hyperscalers currently perform on Earth.

Musk’s timeline for the Terafab is characteristically aggressive, with initial semiconductor production projected for late 2027 and volume production for 2028.  It typically takes three years from groundbreaking to production at other semiconductor facilities.

Meanwhile, late last Friday, a jury in San Francisco federal court decided in a unanimous verdict that Musk was misleading in his public statements during a crucial period of his 2022 Twitter takeover.  Musk was sued by a group of Twitter investors arguing they had relied on his statements.

The jury found that certain of Musk’s public claims of problems in Twitter’s user metrics, and that he was possibly backing out of the $44bn acquisition deal, were intentionally misleading.

This is not the first time Musk has found himself in legal trouble for his tweets. But he was able to beat a 2023 lawsuit brought by Tesla shareholders claiming the CEO had misled them with posts about the car company.

In the verdict, the jury found that Musk had artificially lowered the price of Twitter’s stock by a range of roughly $8 per share to $3 per share between May and October 2022 because of his public statements.

One more on Tesla…there was a bright spot in Europe, as its auto sales rose to 17,664 units in February, an 11.8% gain compared to a year ago.  In January, sales dipped 17%, the last month of a losing streak that had been ongoing since December 2024.

While EV sales have slumped somewhat in the U.S., cheap EVs and hybrids are flourishing in the EU, especially from Chinese automakers like BYD and Li Auto, as buyers across the pond embrace Asian imports.

And SpaceX is considering a fundraising target in its initial public offering that would dwarf the previous largest ever debut, according to reports, as Elon Musk moves forward with listing plans.

The company is weighing a ballpark figure of about $75 billion in its IPO, Bloomberg reported.

—Amazon said on Monday its Amazon Web Services region in Bahrain had been “disrupted” a second time amid the conflict in the Middle East.

It was not known if its facility was directly hit by a drone attack or if the disruption was due to nearby strikes.

The company said it is helping to migrate customers to alternate AWS regions while it recovers, but gave no details on the extent of the damage or a timeline

—BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned on Monday that the artificial intelligence boom risks widening the wealth gap unless more individuals share in market gains.

The rapid rise of AI has sparked debate over whether its gains will be broadly shared across sectors or increase the divide between big tech firms and smaller companies that may struggle to compete.

“The massive wealth created over the past several generations flowed mostly to people who already owned financial assets,” Fink said in his annual letter to shareholders. “Now AI threatens to repeat that pattern at an even larger scale.”

Although more individuals have entered markets in recent years, participation is still modest, particularly in equities and other traditional assets linked to wealth creation.

“History suggests that transformative technologies create enormous value – and much of that value accrues to the companies that build and deploy them, and to the investors who own them.”

“The U.S. clearly sees that AI leadership is not optional, and that it will require sustained investment – in research, infrastructure, talent, and the capital markets capable of financing innovation at scale,” Fink wrote.

“One thing is clear: AI will create significant economic value. Ensuring that participation in that growth expands alongside it is both the challenge and the opportunity,” he said.

—Anthropic won a court order blocking a Trump administration ban on government use of the company’s AI technology, after the Claude chatbot maker argued the move could cost it billions in lost revenue.

U.S. District Judge Rita F. Lin issued a preliminary injunction on Thursday, pausing the administration’s plan to sever all ties with Anthropic while a legal fight plays out in San Francisco federal court.  The order is on hold for seven days to give the government a chance to appeal.

The company sued earlier this month to block a declaration by the Defense Department that Anthropic posed a threat to the U.S. supply chain, escalating a high-stakes dispute over safeguards on AI technology used by the military.

—The average Wall Street bonus rose to a record high of nearly $250,000, following a bonanza year for New York City’s investment banking powerhouses.

Securities industry employees in the city received an average bonus of $246,900 for 2025, an increase of 6% from a year ago, according to new estimates from New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

But that figure, a key source of tax revenue, fell well short of the city’s expectations.  Projections for the city’s fiscal 2026 financial plan assumed an increase of 15%.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has been counting on Wall Street taxes as he faces an over $5 billion budget shortfall that he is required to close before the start of the city’s new fiscal year in July.

—JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported an adjusted operating loss of $617 million for its beef business over the past year.  A year earlier, the loss was $37 million.

The largest beef processor in the U.S. by volume is among companies trudging through a nationwide cattle shortage that’s driving up prices.  Beef prices for consumers and wholesalers are at record highs.

JBS also processes pork, chicken, lamb and salmon, and it has offset losses in its North American beef business with earnings from its other proteins and regions where it operates.

For the full year, sales for the company, which operates from Brazil, grew 12% to $86.18 billion, with its adjusted operating profit at $4.4 billion, down from $4.7 billion the prior year.

JBS is also dealing with a labor strike at a plant in Greeley, Colo., after agreements were reached with workers at more than a dozen other facilities.

–We note the passing of Mall king David Simon, who died at the age of 64 of cancer. Simon turned his family’s real-estate business into the largest mall owner in the country, Simon Property Group.

During his more than three decades as CEO, the inveterate dealmaker gobbled up competitors and defied critics, who said malls were obsolete.  Over a decadeslong buying spree, he cobbled together an empire that spanned 250 properties and 206 million square feet – giving Simon control of more retail space than anyone in the world.

At a time when malls were failing and retailers were filing for bankruptcy, Simon invested in his properties, beefed up their luxury offerings and added non-shopping tenants such as high-end fitness centers, high-tech minigolf course and upscale restaurants.

—Amazon’s movie studio scored a big hit…heroic space adventure Project Hail Mary, starring Ryan Gosling, delivered the biggest domestic hit of 2026, giving Amazon MGM its best-ever opening weekend, with an estimated $80.6 million domestically through Sunday, plus another $60.4 million internationally, for a $141 million global opening weekend, according to Comscore.  That global total includes $27.6 million in IMAX tickets.

Hollywood’s nearly $1.6 billion in year-to-date ticket sales is up 21% over this point in 2025.

Walt Diney and Pixar’s animated adventure Hoppers has taken in $242.6 globally in three weeks.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is opening April 1.  The 2023 film, the Super Mario Bros. Movie, raked in more than $1.36 billion worldwide.

–Lastly, last Friday CBS News said it will shut down its storied radio news service after nearly 100 years of operation, ending an era and blaming challenging economic times as the world moves on to digital sources and podcasts.

When it went on the air in September 1927, the service was the precursor to the entire network, giving a youthful William S. Paley a start in the business.  Edward R. Murrow’s rooftop reports during the Nazi bombing of London during World War II kept Americans listening anxiously.

Today, CBS News Radio provides material to an estimated 700 stations across the country and is known best for its top-of-the-hour news roundups, which I personally would tune into often.  The service will end on May 22.

“Radio is woven into the fabric of CBS News and that’s always going to be part of our history,” CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss said in delivering the news to the staff.  “I want you to know that we did everything we could, including before I joined the company, to try and find a viable solution to sustain the radio operation.

But with the radical changes in the media industry, “we just could not find a way to make that possible,” she said.

Broadcasters like Douglas Edwards, Dallas Townsend and Christopher Glenn were familiar voices on CBS News Radio.

This is very sad.

It’s not the end of the turmoil at the CBS Network, as parent company Paramount Global is likely to absorb CNN as part of its announced purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: Russian forces on Tuesday unleashed one of the largest daytime assaults on Ukraine since the war began, launching more than 550 drones and striking city centers across the country.

At least five people were killed, scores wounded, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Apartment buildings, hospitals and a UNESCO World Heritage site all sustained damage, officials said.

The unusual daytime strikes followed a more typical series of overnight attacks in which Russian forces launched 34 missiles and 392 attack drones.

So about 980 drones and missiles over a 24-hour period, the largest aerial attack over that time period.

In the western city of Lviv, the 16th century Bernardine monastery – part of a UNESCO World Heritage site in the city center – was damaged.

Ukraine’s Air Force said it had managed to shoot down most of the Russian drones and missiles – but admitted that there were multiple direct hits across the country.

President Zelensky said the scale of the latest attacks “clearly shows that Russia has no intention of really ending this war.”

Saturday, a Russian drone attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia killed at least two people after a drone hit a private home.

Trilateral talks involving Russia have been on ice while the Iran war has dominated international attention.

–Separately, Poland’s prime minister Sunday said Poland “had our suspicions” in response to a Washington Post report that Hungary’s government has for years provided Russia with detailed information from EU Council meetings.

The Post, citing several current and former European security officials, found that the Hungarian government under Viktor Orban has long offered Moscow access to sensitive discussions within the European Union.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto regularly calls during breaks in EU council meetings to provide his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, with “direct reports on what was discussed” and possible solutions, according to the Post report.

“The news that Orban’s people inform Moscow about EU Council meetings in every detail shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone,” Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X.  “We’ve had our suspicions about that for a long time.  That’s one reason why I take the floor only when strictly necessary and say just as much as necessary.”

Szijjarto on X called Tusk’s comments “fake news.”

Hungary’s big parliamentary elections are just weeks away.

China: After weeks of speculation and behind-the-scenes intrigue over the delayed summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump, the White House announce on Wednesday new dates for the long-anticipated, high-stakes meeting.

“I’m pleased to announce that President Trump’s long-awaited meeting with President Xi in China will now take place in Beijing on May 14 and 15,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said.

In a Truth Social post, Trump described Xi as “the highly respected President of China,” adding that “representatives” on both sides were “finalizing preparations” for the “historic” visit.

“I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure a monumental event,” he added.

Karoline Leavitt added that Trump, along with the First Lady, will host “Xi and Madam Peng Liyuan for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C., at a later date to be announced this year.”

When asked whether the Xi-Trump summit depended on the end of the Iran war, Leavitt said that Trump and Xi had discussed rescheduling, adding that the Chinese leader understood it was “very important” for the president to stay in the U.S. “throughout these combat operations.”

But China, as of Thursday, had yet to respond.

Meanwhile, the Iran war is a reminder of the risks to global chokeholds and the potential spillover from geopolitical conflict.  We know that one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait, and we also know that Taiwan produces 75% of so of global chip foundry revenue and is home to companies crucial to anything with an on/off switch.

While the International Energy Agency released 400 million reserve barrels of oil to blunt the effects of the Hormuz closure on energy prices, no such stash exists for chips.  As Hoover Institute fellow Eyck Freyman told Barron’s, you can see China’s levers to exact financial pain would have a far greater effect than what Iran can inflict.

For its part, Taiwan apparently has at least three months of oil stockpiled and is turning on some of its idled coal-fired plants, buying coal from Indonesia and Australia, and preparing for other disruptions by improving its recycling technology for rare-earth minerals and sourcing helium, needed in chipmaking, outside Qatar, which produces nearly one third of world supply.

North Korea: Leader Kim Jong Un said his country would permanently strengthen its nuclear forces and treat South Korea as its most hostile state, as he set out policy priorities in a speech to parliament, state media KCNA reported on Tuesday.

Kim said Pyongyang’s status as a nuclear-armed state was irreversible and expanding a “self-defensive nuclear deterrent” was essential to national security, regional stability and economic development.

He rejected the idea that nuclear disarmament could be exchanged for economic benefits or security guarantees, saying North Korea had already proven that maintaining nuclear forces while pursuing development was the correct strategic choice.

“The current world reality, where the dignity and rights of sovereign states are mercilessly violated by unilateral force and violence, clearly teaches what the true guarantee of a state’s existence and peace is,” Kim said in the address on Monday to the Supreme People’s Assembly, the communist-run country’s rubber-stamp legislature.

Nuclear weapons had deterred war and allowed the state to focus resources on economic growth, construction and living standards, he added.

Analysts in South Korea said the comments amounted to an indirect critique of U.S. military action against Iran.

“These circumstances have reinforced Pyongyang’s longstanding argument that nuclear weapons are essential to deter external intervention and safeguard regime survival,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korea Studies.

Kim further accused the United States and its allies of destabilizing the region by deploying strategic nuclear assets near the Korean peninsula, but said North Korea no longer viewed itself as a country under threat and possessed the power to threaten others if necessary.  He also didn’t mention Donald Trump by name.

Kim said South Korea had been “recognized as the most hostile state” and warned Seoul that any attempt to infringe on North Korea’s sovereignty would by met “mercilessly without hesitation or restraint.”

The comments are the latest sign of Pyongyang’s hardening stance toward Seoul since Kim dropped decades of policy seeking peaceful reunification and moved to redefine relations with the South as those between two hostile states.

South Korea’s presidential Blue House on Tuesday said Kim’s remarks were “undesirable for peaceful coexistence,” adding that only dialogue and cooperation could ensure mutual security and prosperity on the Korean peninsula, Yonhap news agency reported.

North Korea’s legislature approved a 15.8% rise in defense spending, with funding explicitly allocated to expanding nuclear deterrence and war-fighting capabilities.

The assembly heard a congratulatory message from Russian President Putin, who praised Kim’s leadership and pledged to deepen a comprehensive strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Rasmussen: 44% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 55% disapprove (Mar. 27).

A weekly Reuters/Ipsos poll has President Trump’s approval rating at 36%, a decrease of four percentage points (40%) since a similar Reuters poll conducted last week.

This same poll had Trump with a 47% approval rating during his first days in office and has hovered at around 40% since last summer.

A new Fox News poll had Trump’s approval rating at 41%, 59% disapproving of his handling of the presidency, the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms.

—The Senate approved Sen. Markwayne Mullin as the next DHS secretary Monday by a 54-45 vote.  Sen. Rand Paul was the lone Republican to vote against, Democratic Senators John Fetterman (Pa.) and Martin Heinrich (N.M.) broke party lines to vote in favor of Mullin’s nomination.

Heinrich called Mullin a “friend” who would not be “bullied” by White House advisers into changing his views.

—Trump on Truth Social, Sun. Mar. 22, 8:31 PM

“I don’t think we should make any deal with the Crazy, Country Destroying, Radical Left Democrats unless, and until, they Vote with Republicans to pass ‘THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.’  It is far more important than anything else we are doing in the Senate, and that includes giving these same terrible people, the Dems (who are to blame for this mess!), a Five Billion Dollar cut in ICE funding, a deal which, even when disguised as something else, is unacceptable to me and the American people – UNLESS it includes their approval of Voter I.D., (with picture!), Citizenship to Vote, No Mail-In Voting (with exceptions), All Paper Ballots, No Men In Women’s Sports, and No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our precious children. Put it all together, and also, let leader Thune clearly identify those few ‘Republicans’ that are Voting against AMERICA.  They will never be elected again!  In other words, lump everything together as one, and VOTE!!!  Kill the Filibuster, and stay in D.C. for Easter, if necessary.  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DJT”

But Senate Republicans early in the week had a new sense of optimism for a deal to reopen DHS following a Monday evening meeting with President Trump, who appeared to have backed off his insistence that efforts to reopen DHS be tied to Democrats agreeing to pass the SAVE America Act, which has presented a significant hurdle to the funding talks, given broad Democratic opposition to the bill.

A Senate Republican source told The Hill that Trump was willing to separate funding for enforcement and removal operations from the DHS appropriations bill to get enough Democratic support.  The GOP would then look to pass additional money for ICE removal process through reconciliation, allowing it to pass without Democratic votes.

—The Supreme Court heard a case Monday with potentially critical implications for the midterm elections this fall, and the commentary after was that the justices appeared poised to reject Mississippi’s mail-in ballot law, a decision that could upend mail-in voting throughout the country.

The justices appeared divided along partisan lines, with the court’s six conservatives expressing deep skepticism with the law during arguments.  The state’s law allows ballots to be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day but received within five business days afterward.

At least 18 other states and territories also allow ballots to be counted so long as they are postmarked by Election Day.  The justices repeatedly pressed the lawyer for Mississippi on what is required to make a ballot selection final, suggesting that federal law sets out Election Day as the day ballots should be considered final.

“So when I do know whether or not a choice is final?” Justice Clarence Thomas asked the lawyer for Mississippi.

Several other conservative justices including Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who is often a key vote, also had sharp questions for Mississippi.  They focused on how the state could determine when a ballot had officially been cast, particularly because Mississippi allows late-arriving ballots to be counted when delivered by FedEx.

The three liberal justices pushed back strongly on arguments by the Republican National Committee and the Trump administration that such mail-in ballot laws are invalid, noting states are allowed to set their own election regulations.

The R.N.C. argument, the liberal justices contended, could invalidate rules allowing any early voting, which the national party committee denied.  The liberal justices worried too that a ruling invalidating the law could make it harder for members of the military to vote.

The outcome of the case could have sweeping consequences for voters in the midterm elections, potentially creating chaos among states that allow mail-in balloting.  A broader group of states allow military and overseas ballots to be counted after Election Day, and it remains unclear what effect a ruling against Mississippi’s law would have on those ballots for states throughout the country.

A decision in the case is expected by the end of June or early July, ahead of the November vote.

President Trump has long opposed mail-in voting (even though he used to vote this way all the time…and did for a local election this week) and has falsely claimed that the practice was a source of fraud and contributed to his defeat in the 2020 presidential election.  He has encouraged Republicans to support legislation outlawing mail-in voting.

—Robert S. Mueller III, the FBI director who transformed the nation’s premier law enforcement agency into a terrorism-fighting force after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and who later became special counsel in charge of investigating ties between Russia and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, died Friday night.  He was 81.

At the FBI, Mueller set about almost immediately overhauling the bureau’s mission to meet the law enforcement needs of the 21st century, beginning his 12-year tenure just one week before the Sept. 11 attacks and serving across presidents of both political parties. He was nominated by Republican President George W. Bush.

9/11 instantaneously switched the bureau’s top priority from solving domestic crime to preventing terrorism, an almost impossible…preventing 99 out of 100 terrorist plots wasn’t good enough.  Yet during his tenure, there was no major follow-up act, as Mueller shifted 2,000 of the FBI’s 5,000 total agents to national security.

Mueller was the second-longest-serving director in FBI history, behind only J. Edgar Hoover, holding the job until 2013 after agreeing to Democratic President Barack Obama’s request to stay on even after his 10-year term was up.

After several years in private practice, Mueller was asked by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to return to public service as special counsel in the Trump-Russia inquiry.

Mueller spent two years quietly conducting one of the most consequential, yet divisive, investigations in Justice Department history. He held no news conferences and made no public appearances during the investigation, remaining quiet despite attacks from Trump and his supporters and creating an aura of mystery around his work.  His conclusion satisfied no one, from either side of the political aisle.

Mueller was born in New York City and grew up in a Philadelphia suburb.  He received a bachelor’s degree from Princeton University and a master’s degree in international relations from New York University.  He then joined the Marines, serving for three years as an officer during the Vietnam War.  He led a rifle platoon and was awarded a Bronze Star, Purple Heart and two Navy Commendation Medals.  Following his military service, Mueller earned a law degree from the University of Virginia.

He would become a federal prosecutor, rising quickly through the ranks, and he would oversee a range of high-profile prosecutions that chalked up victories against targets as varied as Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega and New York crime boss John Gotti.

Two terrorist attacks occurred toward the end of Mueller’s watch: the Boston Marathon bombing and the Fort Hood shootings in Texas.  Both weighed heavily on him, he acknowledged in an interview two weeks before his departure.

“You sit down with victims’ families, you see the pain they go through and you always wonder whether there isn’t something more” that could have been done, he said.

President Trump on Truth Social, minutes after the news that Mueller had died.

“Robert Mueller just died.  Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

—The Treasury Department is working on plans to put President Trump’s signature on all new U.S. paper currency, the agency announced on Thursday.

The move would be a first for a sitting president.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a statement that printing Trump’s signature on the currency “is not only appropriate, but also well deserved.”

As the president said Thursday, Bessent is from “central casting.” Trump likes his glasses.  The president also spent more than five minutes at his Cabinet meeting talking about his pen.

–To go back to the end of last week and the incredible heatwave in the West and Southwest, for the record, the nation’s hottest March temperature had been 108 degrees, which was tied a week ago Wednesday in North Shore, California.

Then Martinez Lake, Arizona, last Thursday hit 110 degrees.  But Friday, after I posted, Martinez Lake hit 112, with three other stations, according to the Weather Channel.

This was one degree shy of tying the April U.S. record high set at Death Valley, California, which happened twice in late April – April 22, 2012 and April 24, 1946.

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport set a March record at 105 degrees last Thursday, Friday and Saturday (which equaled their April record).  Phoenix has seen a 100-degree high in March five times, with four of them occurring this year…make that six days in a row, March 18-23.

Las Vegas broke its all-time hottest March high when it hit 97 last Friday, and then Saturday.  Actually, make that six straight days in which Vegas tied or topped their previous March record.

Hottest March temperatures on record occurred in 14 states…either tied or broken, among them….

Colorado: 96 degrees on March 21
Nebraska: 99 on March 21
Minnesota: 88 on March 21

It reached 96 degrees in Omaha, tying its April record.

Last weekend, parts of the Plains were as much as 45 degrees warmer than average.  [Weather Channel]

Meanwhile, the heat is causing the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which provides about a third of the state’s water supply, to melt even faster than what I wrote the other week.

Historically, the Sierra Nevada snowpack reaches its deepest levels in April, but as of last weekend, it had already dropped to 38% of average for that point in March.  The snowpack is disappearing at a rate of 1% per day.

Here’s the issue. Reservoir operators are struggling to capture this early runoff due to federal flood control rules that require them to maintain empty space in the reservoirs until June. This is complicating efforts to store enough water for the drier summer months ahead.

And last week I mentioned the flooding in Hawaii, and that worsened significantly over the weekend, with flooding across Oahu (Honolulu) the worst Hawaii had seen in over 20 years.  More than 230 people had to be rescued.

The series of rounds of rain were caused by a Kona low…low pressure systems that reverse the winds across the Hawaiian islands, causing heavy rainfall and gusty winds in communities that don’t typically have such foul weather.

–Lastly, I watched the interviews Savannah Guthrie did with dear friend and colleague, Hoda Kotb, and it is truly heartbreaking.  Of all people, Savannah, and her family, didn’t deserve such cruelty and evil.

And as I wrote before, I greatly admire her deep faith in God.  We can all learn something good from her example.

She is returning to the anchor chair April 6.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4510…Silver $69.90
Oil $100.04

Bitcoin: $66,003 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.97; Diesel: $5.38 [$3.15 – $3.60 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 3/23-3/27

Dow Jones  -0.9%  [45166]
S&P 500  -2.1%  [6368]
S&P MidCap  +0.4%
Russell 2000  +0.5%
Nasdaq  -3.2%  [20948]

Returns for the period 1/1/26-3/27/26

Dow Jones -6.0%
S&P 500  -7.0%
S&P MidCap +0.2%
Russell 2000 -1.3%
Nasdaq  -9.9%

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore