[Posted 2:00 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,406
Bret Stephens / New York Times
“For Americans, especially those who often oppose the administration, the question is whether our distaste for this president should get the better of our strategic judgments about the threats Iran poses. In the Wall Street Journal recently, the lawyer David Boies, a prominent Democrat, noted that if Trump had failed to act, ‘his successor would have been left with an even more dangerous choice than his predecessors left him. Three or four years from now, the Iranian missiles now hitting Iran’s neighbors could be hitting Berlin or London, perhaps even New York or Washington.’
“If Democrats can’t bring themselves to support Trump, they can at least support policies that will make the strategic choices for the next Democratic president easier rather than harder.
“ ‘You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you’ is a line widely attributed to Leon Trotsky. If that’s the case – and history tells us it is – shouldn’t you be interested in winning it, too?”
President Trump finally addressed the nation on the Iran war, Wednesday night, which I cover below, but the speech was a mess, half of it filled with his ever-ready phrases… “like few people have ever seen before,” “We are winning bigger than ever before,” “never seen anything like it,” Iran sought “a nuclear weapon like nobody has ever seen before,” and on and on.
“We built the strongest economy ever,” we’re the “hottest country in history,” “highest stock market ever…”
But he omitted any reference to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which I addressed in my opening last week.
The Wall Street Journal, in a piece released Sunday night, also addressed the issue of the president “weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.”
The Journal added, on the topic of the IAEA and Director General Rafael Grossi, that he “has said he thinks the uranium is mainly at two of the three sites that the U.S. and Israel attacked in June: an underground tunnel at the nuclear complex in Isfahan and a cache at Natanz. The Iranians have centrifuges to enrich uranium and the capability to set up a new underground enrichment site, experts said.”
We have not won the war if the enriched uranium isn’t given up or the U.S. hasn’t gone in to extract it.
And as I wrote last week, yes, this would be incredibly dangerous, and Americans are still not prepared.
“This is not a quick in and out kind of deal,” said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, the former commander of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command.
President Trump’s speech Wednesday did zero to accurately, and honestly, inform the American people.
And then late this morning, we learned that Iran shot down a U.S. F-15E fighter jet, and a search-and-rescue operation was underway for the two-person crew. As I go to post, one of the two has been rescued…injury status unknown.
This marks a significant escalation.
We’re in a war. We have to win it. And President Trump needs to show a little humility.
Alas, that last bit is unlikely.
—
Tale of the Tape….
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Apr. 3…$112.06
The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $109.
Nationwide average prices at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Friday, Apr. 3…regular gas $4.09…diesel $5.53
As it went down, day by day….
The war in Iran passed the 30-day mark over the weekend as the conflict escalated amid pressure on Washington and Tehran to reach a ceasefire deal.
President Trump said days after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that the operation would last at least four to five weeks but could be shorter or longer.
The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen waded into the conflict Saturday as the group took credit for a missile attack on Israel, which said the projectile was intercepted without any casualties caused. The Houthis then confirmed a second wave of attacks on Israel, vowing to continue strikes.
They didn’t say whether they would attack ships in the Red Sea, like they did in the past. Instead, the group said its operations will continue “until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases.” That’s possibly a reference to Israel’s parallel war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Russia is also allegedly upping its assistance of Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News that Russian forces took photos of a U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia three times in the days before Iran attacked the site.
A missile attack on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, last Friday injured a dozen U.S. service members, three seriously.
“And I don’t believe – I know – that they share information. Do they help Iranians? Of course. How many percent? One hundred percent,” Zelensky said.
President Trump had delayed a threatened U.S. strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure to next week (April 6), claiming talks between the two sides are “going very well.” But additional U.S. forces are continuing to be sent to the Middle East, raising speculation the administration was buying time for a ground invasion to take Kharg Island.
Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey convened on Sunday in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for further discussions aimed at ending the war, but the U.S., Israel and Iran were not part of the talks, and it was unclear whether any progress was made. Mediators from Pakistan had passed along to Iran a 15-point plan to end the conflict. But the speaker of Iran’s parliament accused Mr. Trump on Sunday of engaging in a front of diplomacy while “secretly planning a ground invasion.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered his forces to increase the territory they control in southern Lebanon, adding to fears among many Lebanese of a long-term military occupation of the area. Lebanon’s president has denounced Israel’s campaign there against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia. The Israeli military (IDF) said at least six of its soldiers were injured on Sunday, three of them severely, amid the clashes with Hezbollah.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned Israel’s killing of three journalists in Lebanon on Saturday.
On his Telegram, Araghchi said the killings amounted to “targeted assassination” and “flagrant violation of international law.” He said they were a way of silencing “the voices of those who tell the truth.”
The three were killed in an Israeli air strike targeting their car.
Israel claimed the attack shortly afterwards, saying one of the three victims was a Hezbollah “terrorist,” without providing any evidence to support its claim.
Reporters Without Borders claims Israel has killed 220 journalists since 2023.
A UN peacekeeper from Indonesia was killed in southern Lebanon on Sunday. The Indonesian government said that three other Indonesian peacekeepers had been injured in the episode, which involved “indirect artillery fire” near their post. The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said on Monday that it did not know the origin of the projectile.
Two Middle Eastern aluminum producers were hit by Iranian attacks on Saturday, highlighting the challenge to the global economy as the war disrupts vital industries.
The region’s top producer, Emirates Global Aluminium (sic), said it sustained “significant damage” at its site in Abu Dhabi, while Aluminium Bahrain said it was assessing the extent of damage to its facility.
The attacks were yet another blow to the region’s commodity industry, with producers mostly prevented from exporting by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to the disruption to shipping, Iranian attacks have damaged key facilities, likely extending the time it will take for operations to return to normal when the war is over.
The Middle East accounts for around 9% of the global supply of aluminum and much of that is now blocked.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, said Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American forces on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners forever,” according to Iranian state media. He also dismissed the talks as a cover after some 2,500 U.S. Marines trained in amphibious landings arrived in the Middle East.
As alluded to above, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday night (published Monday) that Trump is considering a possible military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran to help accomplish his goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Officials told the Journal Trump is reviewing the danger to U.S. troops. Such an operation would likely require U.S. forces to be inside Iran for days, if not longer.
Trump has also told his advisers to press Iran to give up its material as a condition for ending the war.
The president openly mused about seizing the aforementioned Kharg Island oil terminal in the Persian Gulf, and the United States and Israel kept up their attacks Monday on the Islamic Republic, even as there were some signs of progress in nascent ceasefire talks. Tehran, meanwhile, struck a key water and electrical plant in hard-hit Kuwait.
As a diplomatic effort being facilitated by Pakistan toward ending the war moved ahead, Trump said Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday as “a sign of respect.”* At the same time, with 2,500 U.S. Marines now in the region and a similar-sized contingent on its way, he raised the idea of taking the island. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t,” he told the Financial Times in an interview published early Monday. ‘We have a lot of options.”
“To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the U.S. say: ‘Why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” Trump told the FT.
“We’re doing extremely well in that negotiation,” Trump said. “But you never know with Iran, because we negotiate with them, and then we always have to blow them up.”
*Last Friday, ship tracking service MarineTraffic reported that the Chinese vessels belonging to China’s state-owned shipping company Cosco were turned back from crossing the Strait. “New developments overnight suggest the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable” they added in a post on X.
Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that Iran “gave” the U.S. most of the 15 demands it issued to Tehran to end the war, even as it remains unclear whether either side is negotiating.
“They gave us most of the points. Why wouldn’t they?” Trump said. “We’re going to be asking for a couple of other things.” He declined to specify what concessions Iran has offered.
Publicly, Iran has rejected the U.S.’s 15-point list of ceasefire terms delivered to intermediaries in Pakistan, and has countered with five conditions of its own – including maintaining sovereignty over the Strait.
President Trump then posted on Truth Social, Monday, 7:26 AM:
“The United States of America is in serious discussions with a NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electrical Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.’ Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for passage of cargo ships and said the administration is steadily moving to address the shortage of global oil supplies.
“Over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation – whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort,” Bessent said in an interview Monday on Fox News.
Bessent said the global oil market is “in deficit about 10 to 12 million barrels a day, and we’re making up for that deficit.” The International Energy Agency’s coordinated release of strategic reserves amounts to about 4 million barrels a day toward that deficit, he said.
The Treasury chief also pointed to the Trump administration’s move to unsanction Russian and Iranian oil “that was already on the water.” He argued that this decision didn’t net either U.S. rival additional funds, saying that there was “no extra money for either one of those regimes.”
Asked about fears of renewed disruption to supplies via the Red Sea, due to activity on the Iranian-backed Houthi militant group, Bessent said, “The Houthis have been very quiet so far.”
Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Saturday, and Bessent said their shelling “was Israel specific.” With regard to the Red Sea, Bessent indicated that “they’ve been pretty quiet so far, and I would expect them to likely remain that way.”
Countries have scrambled for alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz. Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is crucial for vessels heading to the Suez Canal through the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia has been sending millions of barrels of crude oil through it because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
About 12% of the world’s trade typically passes through Bab el-Mandeb and about 10% of global maritime trade – including 40% of container ship traffic – passes through the Suez Canal each year.
Houthi rebels attacked over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two vessels, between November 2023 and January 2025, saying it was attacking in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza during the war there between Israel and Hamas.
The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, since 2014. Saudi Arabia launched a war against the Houthis on behalf of Yemen’s exiled government in 2015, and the rebels had stayed out of the current conflict due to their uneasy ceasefire with Saudi Arabia.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is having none of Bessent’s optimism on the Strait reopening.
She used an audience of high-level Group of Seven officials to challenge the former hedge fund manager, warning the central bankers, finance and energy ministers convened for a video call that the effects would be felt for a long time because so much has already been destroyed.
Governments in the 21-nation currency bloc are slashing their outlooks, hoping what they’d envisaged as a year of recovery doesn’t end up instead as a recession.
[Germany’s economy will grow at less than half the pace expected just a few months ago due to the conflict, according to the country’s leading research institutes.]
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, said in a post on X, as translated into English: “We have no negotiations with America in these thirty-one days,” but he said the U.S. has submitted a “negotiation request.”
Monday afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that “talks are continuing and going well.”
Leavitt also maintained the U.S. is still within its timeline for accomplishing its objectives in Iran as the war passes its one-month mark.
“The president, commander-in-chief, and the Pentagon has always stated 4-6 weeks estimated timeline…so, you do the math on how much longer the Pentagon needs to fully achieve the objectives,” she said.
Gulf allies, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have privately been making the case to Trump to keep fighting until Iran is decisively defeated, arguing that Tehran hasn’t been weakened enough by the bombing campaign, and that the moment offers a historic opportunity to cripple Tehran’s clerical rule once and for all, according to multiple reports.
But this push comes as Trump vacillates between claiming that Iran’s decimated leadership is ready to settle the conflict and threatening to further escalate the war if a deal is not reached soon.
Monday night, the Wall Street Journal reported that “President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”
“In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
“There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren’t his immediate priority, they said.”
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, called ending military operations before the strait is open “unbelievably irresponsible.”
I agree.
On the report, crude oil plunged in the futures market after about 8:30 PM. I was watching it, tick by tick, not knowing the Journal had issued its report.
Such has been the ways of this war and the markets…endless headline volatility.
Early Tuesday morning, Trump then issued two posts on Truth Social:
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT”
“The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A will REMEMBER!!! President DJT”
Iran’s parliamentary committee approved a plan to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait would be closed to ships from the U.S., Israel and countries that have been involved in sanctioning Iran, according to a Telegram post from the Fars news agency, which said that Iran will have a “sovereign” role in the implementation of the new system.
The proposal would reportedly require agreement from other countries next to the Strait.
Iran attacked and set ablaze a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai on Monday night, the latest in a string of assaults on merchant vessels by missiles or explosive air and sea drones since the war was launched on Feb. 28.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp., the ship’s owner, said the attack caused a fire and hull damage, but there were no reported injuries. Apparently the resulting oil spill was contained.
Tuesday, the Israeli military said four soldiers had been killed in combat in southern Lebanon in clashes with Hezbollah.
At an 8:00 AM press conference, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days of the conflict would be decisive, and that the number of projectiles launched by Iran in the past 24 hours represented the lowest during the war.
The U.S. hit a large ammunition depot in the Iranian city of Isfahan with 2,000-pound bunker buster bombs, according to an official, while the United Arab Emirates suffered one of the most intense days of Iranian attacks since the first week of the war. Isfahan is where Iran is reported to have most of its stockpile of enriched uranium.
President Trump, in an interview with the New York Post, said he isn’t thinking about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and remains focused on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
“I don’t think about it, to be honest,” Trump said. “My sole function was to make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. When we leave, the strait will automatically open.”
Then around 12:30 PM, an unconfirmed report from Iranian state media said Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the war, if conditions were met, and stocks soared further, the Dow Jones up over 1,000 in a flash, WTI falling from $104 to $100, Brent to $103.
We then learned Pezeshkian did have a phone call with the European Council president, Antonio Costa. The European Council helps set the foreign policy of the European Union, but it doesn’t have any legislative authority.
Costa posted on X hours before that he did hold the call with Pezeshkian and that Costa urged “de-escalation and restraint, the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, and the need for all parties to fully respect international law….
“To de-escalate the situation, I urged Iran to stop the unacceptable attacks on countries in the region and to engage positively on the diplomatic track, notably with the UN to ensure the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
“There must be space for diplomacy. The EU stands ready to contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and for a lasting solution to end the hostilities, while addressing the broader security concerns posed by Iran.”
The WANA News Agency of Iran said Pezeshkian characterized the military strikes on his country as a “flagrant violation of the rule of law” and a direct assault on the very principles the EU claims to protect.
The president noted that Iran had entered negotiations with the U.S. sincerely and with a constructive approach, yet it was subjected to illegal attacks for a second time mid-negotiations. “This proves that [the U.S.] does not believe in diplomacy and merely seeks to dictate its own interests,” he said.
Pezeshkian further clarified that the current situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is a result of hostile and aggressive actions by the U.S. and the Israeli regime.
He added: “The solution to normalizing the situation is to stop their aggressive attacks. We have never sought tension or war at any point, and we have the will to end this war, provided that requirements – especially necessary guarantees for the non-repetition of aggression – are met.”
Pezeshkian warned that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the ships and vessels of the aggressors and their supporters, adding: “Any foreign intervention under any pretext in this war and the current regional situation will have dangerous consequences.”
Aside from the fact it is believed Pezeshkian has minimal power and influence, this is hardly real positive news warranting a massive rally in stocks and bonds…with sliding crude prices, which are still at $100.
But such is life these days. You take it all in, hour by hour, and try to make sense of it.
Late Tuesday afternoon, after I posted my Market Update, President Trump told reporters in the White House that he foresaw ending the war within two to three weeks, suggesting the U.S. had largely accomplished its military goals.
Trump indicated that it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the U.S. during that timeframe but said an agreement with Tehran was not necessary for the war to end. Trump suggested he could leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the Strait.
“I would say that within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three,” Trump said. “We’ll leave because there’s no reason for us to do this.”
“That’s not for us. That’ll be for France. That’ll be for whoever’s using the Strait,” Trump said.
Trump said the U.S. would leave when Iran was not able to obtain nuclear weapons and claimed the regime now in power was better than the leadership before the war.
“We have had regime change now. Regime change was not one of the things I had as a goal. I had one goal. They will have no nuclear weapons, and that goal has been attained. They will not have nuclear weapons,” the president said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, appearing Tuesday night on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, said Washington could see the “finish line,” and the U.S. will have to re-examine ties with NATO after the conflict.
“We can see the finish line. It’s not today, it’s not tomorrow, but it is coming,” Rubio said.
“There are messages being exchanged, there are talks going on. There is the potential for a direct meeting at some point,” Rubio added.
The secretary then said “that there’s nothing any government is doing, or any country in the world is doing now to help Iran that is in any way impeding our mission.”
Rubio added Washington will have to re-examine its relations with NATO after the Iran war.
“Ultimately, that’s a decision for the president to make, and he’ll have to make it,” Rubio said.
“But I do think, unfortunately, we are going to have to re-examine whether or not this alliance that has served this country well for a while is still serving that purpose, or has it now become a one-way street where America is simply in a position to defend Europe, but when we need the help of our allies, they’re going to deny us basing rights, and they’re going to deny us overflight,” he added in reference to the use of military bases.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi acknowledged receiving direct messages from U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
In an interview with Al Jazeera aired late on Tuesday, he said: “I receive messages from Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations.
“We do not have any faith that negotiations with the U.S. will yield any results. The trust level is at zero.”
Asked about a possible ground offensive by the U.S., Araghchi said “we are waiting for them.”
Wednesday morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT”
But top Iranian officials denied Trump’s claim that the regime begged for a cease-fire deal, insisting that Tehran is committed to winning the war.
A spokesperson for the office of President Pezeshkian rejected Trump’s post claiming that Tehran had reached out to Washington for a peace deal.
“The stance of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the defense of the homeland against the onslaught of the forces of evil and the conditions for ending the imposed war has undergone no change, and there is no regard whatsoever for the delusions and lies of the criminal aggressors,” Seyyed Mehdi Tabatabaei wrote on X.
“The Iranian nation, resolute, steadfast, and united, defends the essence of its homeland. #unity is the key to our victory,” he added.
Meanwhile, Qatar said it was targeted by three Iranian cruise missiles on Wednesday, two of them intercepted, while the third struck an oil tanker in northern waters.
The crew of 21 suffered no injuries.
Israel carried out a “wide-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran, the IDF said.
Wednesday night, President Trump finally formally addressed the American people on the status of the war, more than a month into it, and he promised a swift end to the conflict.
“We’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close,” Trump said. “We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We are going to hit them extremely hard. Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.”
Trump once again called on Europe to take the lead in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
He said to the allies: “Go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy.”
Trump said countries that receive oil through the Strait “must take care of that passage.”
“They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it.”
He then simply said, without expanding further, that the Strait would reopen “naturally” when the war was over.
“When this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil, because that’s all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down.”
Trump asserted that “we don’t need” the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s true that the U.S. imports very little oil from the Gulf, but Trump’s stance ignores the economic reality that oil prices are set globally and that supply disruptions in the Middle East will filter through here, as they already are.
And then you have goods like fertilizer that are being choked off.
Trump’s address was largely notable for what he didn’t say. The president did not mention potential plans to put boots on the ground or lay out U.S. demands for a ceasefire, even though thousands of forces are entering the theater.
Earlier in the day, as noted above, Trump claimed that Iran asked the U.S. for a ceasefire.
The president gave no definitive end date for the war. He maintained that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, calling such a prospect “an intolerable threat,” and said the country was building a vast arsenal of ballistic missiles that were a threat to America’s homeland.
While he said Iran’s ballistic missile capacity was greatly reduced, he didn’t explain how the operation had headed off Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He and his administration had previously insisted that the U.S. and Israel “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program in Midnight Hammer last June.
Trump in his primetime address laid out a rosy picture of how the economy will rebound once the war in Iran comes to an end.
“It will resume the flowing, and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up,” he said.
Trump emphasized that this conflict shouldn’t be compared to past quagmires the U.S. has engaged in historically, such as the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
“Tonight, every American can look forward to a day when we are finally free from the wickedness of Iranian aggression and the specter of nuclear blackmail,” Trump said. “Because of the actions we have taken, we are on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat to America and the world. And I’ll tell you, the world is watching.”
One person watching was Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and it’s not known if he and his government agree with the timetable of a few more weeks as provided by Trump.
And what happened to the 15-point peace plan the White House was urging Iran to accept just days ago? No mention of it Wednesday night.
Markets cratered. As the president was speaking, oil futures began to soar…
The war showed no signs of letting up early Thursday, as Israel said it intercepted missiles fired from Iran. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also said they responded to missile and drone strikes.
A spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces’ unified command said on Thursday that Tehran will press on with the war until the United States and Israel face “permanent regret and surrender,” according to the semi-official Tasnim new agency.
Ebrahim Zolfaqari said Iran would step up its military actions, with “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks in store.
But then around 10:30, the market rallied back on word Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, state-run IRNA reported, citing Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibababid.
“Naturally, these requirements do not constitute restrictions, but are intended to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships transiting this route,” Gharibabadi told IRNA.
He said vessel traffic through the Strait should take place under Iran and Oman’s supervision and coordination.
Well, look at a map, Iran needs a partner to be able to collect tolls, and Oman is not Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bharain or Kuwait, the five allies President Trump cited in his speech Wednesday night as being part of the U.S. orbit. Oman and Iran have pretty good relations.
But the markets liked it, though after falling from $113 to roughly $108, West Texas Intermediate moved back up to $111, with gasoline futures, having fallen from $3.30 to $3.20 on the news, back above $3.25, which was compared to Wednesday’s close of $3.05.
Thursday afternoon, President Trump posted, with an accompany video of the U.S. hitting Iran’s highest bridge, which Iran claimed killed eight people:
“The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again – Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said striking civilian structures “will not compel Iranians to surrender” in a social media post.
Late Thursday night, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
And at 8:22 AM ET, Friday, Trump posted:
“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A ‘GUSHER’ FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP”
French President Emmanuel Macron has said people “want to be serious” about dealing with the Iran war.
Without referencing Trump directly, Macron showed a cold fury to a man who insulted him numerous times.
“There is too much talk…and it’s all over the place,” Macron said on a visit to South Korea. “We all need stability, calm, a return to peace – this isn’t a show!”
Macron added: “You have to be serious. When you want to be serious, you don’t go around saying the opposite every day of what you just said the day before. And perhaps you shouldn’t talk every day.”
Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states overnight and into Friday, hours after President Trump issued his fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure.
Abu Dhabi suspended operations at its largest natural gas processing facility, after a fire broke out due to debris from a projectile interception. It is the second time operations have been halted at the Habshan facility since the war broke out.
Hours earlier, a drone attack caused a fire at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery, with a capacity of 346,000 barrels a day.
There were no reported casualties in either instance.
We did hear that a container ship signaling French ownership exited the Strait of Hormuz, in what appears to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the war all but shuttered the waterway.
The CMA CGM Kribi can carry 5,000 twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, and the company said 14 of its ships have been stuck in the Persian Gulf and unable to pass through the Strait.
It’s not known if France paid Iran a toll, with Tehran establishing a system of tolls for the Strait.
Three other ships also appeared to have exited the Gulf through the Strait on Thursday, hugging the coastline of Oman.
—Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal
“(It) comes as no surprise that less than a month into the latest war, almost everyone seems certain not only about the outcome of the war, but about what it means for decades to come.
“Last week the Economist, a publication with a long and spotty track record of declarative certitude in the face of unpredictability, announced that the war was an American failure. ‘A month of bombing has achieved nothing,’ its cover thundered.
“The academy is on the same page. Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, insists the war is a ‘longtime disaster’ and the ‘most catastrophic failure of air power we have ever seen.’
“No fog of war for these seers…It’s over for the U.S. and Israel, with devastation rippling for years.
“There is no less confidence on the other side. Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private-equity firm Apollo, dismissed the war’s alarming fallout in commodity, equity and bond markets, and said it would ‘ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.’
“Marc Thiessen, a speechwriter for President George W. Bush (whose administration isn’t especially noted for the accuracy of its observations) and now a columnist for the Washington Post, said on Fox News that President Trump’s war would go down as ‘possibly the greatest military campaign…since the American Revolution.’ Move over, Dwight D. Eisenhower; step aside, Ulysses S. Grant.
“Since rhetorical extremism in the pursuit of persuasion is all the rage, why stop there? Surely someone will soon make the case that Operation Epic Fury is the greatest triumph of arms since Henry V’s longbowmen routed the superior French numbers at Agincourt. Or, according to your taste, it already represents the most disastrous defeat for a major power since the Romans were out-generaled at Cannae by Hannibal.
“I am not against bold opinion commentary, as you might have noticed, but this level of certainty about a war that is four weeks old with plainly many more phases to come, is simply unsupportable. As we stand, the outcome isn’t knowable with any level of confidence; it surely rests on events at a tactical and strategic level in coming weeks and months that we can’t show.
“It is evident that the U.S. and Israel have enjoyed extraordinary military success in eliminating much of Iran’s leadership and military capabilities. But Iran’s regime has succeeded at a political and economic level – first by simply surviving the onslaught to date and second by exercising its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
“These are all limited and contingent successes. Again, their ultimate outcome is conditional on the extent to which the U.S. is able to break that stranglehold and either force out the regime or at least cow it into submission. And that in turn is conditional on a host of at this stage unknowable developments: the deployment of ground forces, the contribution of neighbors and others to the shipping challenge.
“Some of us who acknowledge our uncertainty may be simply reflecting a larger uncertainty about the wisdom of this war in the first place.
“In the same way, to declare now that it is already won or lost is merely to affirm one’s prior and continuing political and ideological prejudices, delivered to an audience that wants to hear nothing else.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal…Wed. AM….
“Optimists say the Strait will reopen on its own once the bombing stops, since Iran and its neighbors have an incentive to restore the flow. They certainly do, and perhaps that’s enough to restore the prewar status quo. But Iran will have demonstrated that its ability to threaten the Strait is real, and it could turn to charging a bounty – a fee or a promise not to cooperate with the U.S. – on countries to let their vessels pass.
“The other issue is what a de facto Iran veto over Gulf shipping will say about the credibility of U.S. deterrence. Ending the war with the Strait closed means Iran’s strategy of imposing economic pain on the West will have been at least a partial success. The best outcome in this war is still regime change, or a defeated Iran that bends to Mr. Trump’s terms that include a plan to reopen the Strait.”
—A U.S. journalist, Shelley Kittleson, was kidnapped in Baghdad, two Iraqi officials said Tuesday. Kittleson was freelancing for a publication, Al-Monitor.
Iraq’s Interior ministry said security forces arrested a suspect. Iraqi militias backed by Iran have launched regular attacks on the U.S. diplomatic and military targets during the conflict; however, it’s not clear if the kidnapping is related to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
—Bonds rallied bigly Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave some comments to students at Harvard University, wherein he said the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely hinges on how the conflict affects Americans’ expectations about inflation.
“The tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he said. “But a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations.”
Powell also hinted at keeping interest rates unchanged in the short term, looking through the ongoing global energy price shock: “Monetary policy works with long and variable lags, famously, and so, by the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy takes effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone,” he said.
Just a week and a half ago, Fed officials penciled in one rate cut this year when they updated their economic projections. Now, Wall Street forecasters are increasingly expecting a rate hike as the conflict with Iran drags on.
Central bank policymakers are not only facing a global price shock, but they’re also contending with a U.S. labor market that’s still in a precarious state. Higher energy costs themselves, if sustained, could also eventually take a toll on economic growth and hiring.
In an appearance on Fox and Friends this week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said, “It’s much more important that this [the war] be successfully completed than what the market does.”
To those who insist Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the U.S., Dimon said Iran has been “doing something bad for 47 years,” including killing Americans and supporting proxy wars.
“I think people were surprised to find out they had a ballistic missile that could go 3,000 miles [Ed. 2,500.] These are bad people and they needed to be stopped.”
We then had the March jobs report Friday, and the figure, a gain of 178,000, far exceeded expectations of 60,000.
But February’s dreadful loss of 92,000 was revised further downward to 133,000. There were anomalies in both figures, such as weather and a big healthcare worker strike/resolution. So combine the two for a better look.
It was encouraging that manufacturing added 15,000 jobs in March.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but average hourly earnings rose a less than expected 0.2%, 3.5% year-over-year, the latter the slowest pace since 2021.
Separately, employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, up 25% from February, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday.
Tech was the hardest hit, with 18,720 job cuts, bringing the sector’s first-quarter total to 52,050, compared with 37,097 in the same period last year.
Yes, companies said the cuts were largely due to AI.
In other economic news, February retail sales rose a bit better than expected, 0.6%, 0.5% ex-autos, but this is pre-war.
The Chicago manufacturing PMI for March was a less-than-expected 52.8 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), and versus 57.7 prior.
The ISM manufacturing reading for March was basically in line, 52.5, while the service sector number comes out Monday.
The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for January rose 1.2% year-over-year, down from 1.4% in December and a tick below market expectations. This marked the weakest annual growth since July 2023, underscoring the continued cooling in the U.S. housing market.
For eight straight months, home price appreciation has lagged consumer inflation, pushing real home values slightly lower compared to a year ago.
New York led the gains with a 4.9% annual increase, followed by Chicago (4.6%). Tampa saw the largest decline (-2.5%).
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is down to 1.6%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up to 6.46% from 5.98% on Feb. 26.
Next week we have key inflation data.
Earnings season starts, but it’s light until the week of April 13.
Europe and Asia
We had manufacturing PMIs for the month of March in the eurozone this week (service sector readings next week) and for the EA-21, the figure was a solid 51.6, a 45-month high. [S&P Global]
Germany 52.2 (highest since May 2022)
France 50.0 (stagnant)
Italy 51.3
Spain 48.7
Netherlands 52.0
Greece 54.5
Ireland 53.7
UK 51.0
Joe Hayes / S&P Global Market Intelligence
“The war in the Middle East has already left its mark on euro area manufacturing. Suppliers’ delivery times have risen sharply as logistics markets re-adjust to maritime disruption, while surging oil and energy prices have pushed factory input cost inflation up to its highest level since late-2022.
“The frustrating part is that the manufacturing sector had been slowly gaining momentum since the start of 2026… However, we saw some of the war-driven inflation impulse being passed straight through to the final prices in March, reducing the eurozone’s competitiveness and this will likely put demand under renewed pressure.
“While factory production and order growth rates held steady in March, expansions were tepid. It therefore might not take too much to bring output and sales volumes lower, and such a risk clearly rises the longer the war carries on.”
A flash estimate of euro area inflation in the month of March came in at 2.5%, up from 1.9% in February, according to Eurostat. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (4.9%, compared with -3.1% in February). Ex-food and energy, the figure is 2.2%, down from February’s 2.3%.
The Eurozone unemployment rate for February was 6.2%, up from 6.1% in January and down from 6.3% in February 2025. [Eurostat]
China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed the March manufacturing PMI was 50.4, services 50.1, both better than the month prior.
The private RatingDog manufacturing reading was 50.8, services 52.1, the latter down from February’s 3-year high of 56.7
Japan’s March manufacturing PMI was 51.6, the service sector reading 53.4.
February retail sales fell 2.0% in the month.
South Korea’s March manufacturing PMI was 52.6; Taiwan’s 53.3.
Street Bytes
—After a brutal five-week losing streak in the major indices, stocks rose this holiday-shortened week on optimism the war would end soon and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen; the Dow Jones up 3.0% to 46504, the S&P 500 3.4% and Nasdaq 4.4%. It was the best week since November.
For the record, the Dow fell 5.4% and the S&P 5.1% in March, Nasdaq 4.8%…the figures not as bad as they were entering the week owing to a stupendous rally on Tuesday, the last day of the month.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.70% 2-yr. 3.84% 10-yr. 4.34% 30-yr. 4.90%
The 2- and 10-year Treasuries rallied on the same hopes stocks had. But the bond market was open for a spell today, while Wall Street was closed, and yields rose a bit on the strong employment data…and Monday has the potential to be ugly for both markets, though it’s all about the headlines out of the Middle East this weekend.
—Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg report.
The technical milestone is the culmination of the kingdom’s longstanding contingency plan for keeping its oil flowing after the effective closure of their main export route.
Tankers have been rerouted to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to collect the oil, providing an important lifeline for global supply.
Of the 7 million barrels a day that go through the pipeline, 2 million are destined for Saudi refineries.
The Yanbu route only partly offsets the hit to supply from shutting Hormuz, through which about 15 million barrels a day of crude shipments passed before the war.
However, with Yemen’s Houthis now saying they have entered the war, which we see through its missile attacks on Israel, as noted above, we wait to see if the Houthis attack tankers going through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait.
The Saudi East-West pipeline is more than 620 miles long (1,000 kilometers).
—The price of diesel is just 31 cents below its all-time high set in June 2022, which as I’ve written many times, was also the peak in inflation for the consumer price index.
Prices will be going up on all manner of goods, from soft drinks, to fresh produce. The U.S. Postal Service announced a temporary 8 percent surcharge on packages, beginning April 26.
In Europe, diesel has soared even more, also to the highs of 2022, with diesel futures trading at more than $200 a barrel.
—The Iran war hasn’t just affected energy supplies. It is also cutting deeply into supplies of helium – the natural-gas byproduct known for keeping party balloons aloft – that is being squeezed by a halt in natural-gas exports from Qatar, the source of about a third of the world’s total.
The shortage is straining a market where supplies can’t be switched on quickly, threatening to hamper production of everything from semiconductors to military-drone components and space rockets.
While many chip makers and defense manufacturers won’t immediately feel the shortage, suppliers are already telling some customers to expect supply cuts and surcharges.
Helium is deeply embedded across many modern industries. The gas transfers heat exceptionally well, making it ideal for rapid cooling. Chip makers use it to maintain stable temperatures while etching silicon wafers into advanced semiconductors.
—The Independent Grocers Alliance, a group of 2,600 independent grocery stores, said on its website last week that price increases on shelves might not be apparent until midsummer, noting that it will take time for various fees to work their way through the supply chain.
For every 10 percent rise in the price of fuel, the group said, food prices could go up 2 to 3 percent, based on historical averages. That comes on top of existing food inflation in grocery stores, which is on track to be about 2.4 percent this year, according to the Labor Department.
Costs for beef and dairy will rise the most because of fuel and energy costs associated with animal raising, slaughtering, processing, transporting and refrigerating, the group said. The cost of packaged goods is also expected to rise because of higher energy costs.
—Most of the T.S.A.’s 60,000 workers began receiving back pay on Monday, easing the financial strain that has troubled them since the partial government shutdown began more than six weeks ago. But with the shutdown persisting, the workers don’t know when they’ll be paid next.
Although security lines at some airports began to ease significantly on Monday, the respite from the chaos may prove temporary if workers aren’t paid again in two weeks. A memo that President Trump signed on Friday ordering the Department of Homeland Security to pay T.S.A. officers did not specify whether they would be paid on a regular schedule.
Last Friday, more than 3,500 T.S.A. officers called out sick, a 12 percent absence rate – the highest of the shutdown so far, with far higher rates at some of the airports you saw every night on the national newscasts.
The same day, the House passed a bill that is a stopgap measure to fund the entire DHS until May 22, but the Senate was already on recess, having passed a competing bill – and neither chamber, both run by Republicans, is willing to approve the other’s proposal.
House Democrats had been ready to back the Senate-passed measure, clearing it for President Trump to sign, but the House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate.
House Speaker Mike Johnson called the Senate bill “a joke.”
The Senate bill had left out money for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol, the two agencies responsible for carrying out President Trump’s deportation crackdown.
Senate and House Republicans then announced an agreement on Wednesday to move ahead as early as Thursday with legislation to reopen the DHS, resurrecting a bipartisan deal that President Trump and the House GOP rejected last week.
The plan would fund the department through Sept. 30 but omit money for the agencies carrying out the president’s immigration crackdown. Republicans said ICE and Border Patrol would continue to be paid out of funds they pushed through Congress last year over Democratic objections.
The Senate then formally sent the bill to the House for passage after the two chambers return from recess, but some hard-line House conservatives are seething after Johnson reversed course to support the Senate plan after initially opposing it.
President Trump signed an order to give much-needed relief to the tens of thousands of DHS employees forced to continue working without pay for a month during the shutdown.
—China’s exports of jet fuel have declined sharply in recent weeks amid the Iran war, leaving countries including Australia and Japan facing a supply crunch and scrambling to find alternative sellers.
China is Asia-Pacific’s largest jet fuel and kerosene exporter, but shipments from the country fell nearly 40 percent month on month in March to 204,000 barrels per day, figures from trade data provider Kpler showed.
The cutback is likely to hit hardest in Australia and Japan, which are both heavily reliant on Chinese jet fuel, according to Kpler. Other countries affected include Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Canada and the United States.
Global jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the start of the war, soaring from $99.40 per barrel during the last week of February to $195.19 per barrel last week, according to market intelligence firm Platts.
The spike is already being felt across the aviation industry. Passengers should expect 8 to 15 percent higher fares plus larger fuel surcharges, as well as a decrease in flights as budget carriers cut routes. Scott Charlton, chief executive of Sydney Airport, warned in early March that there were no guarantees that Australia’s airports would receive aviation fuel the following month, as the country remained overreliant on overseas supplies.
Australia is suffering on many fronts. Storm damage to Chevron Corp.’s Wheatstone gas plant is hampering efforts to restart operations and the facility won’t be back online fully for weeks, adding further strain to the global LNG market.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle disrupted production from liquefied natural gas facilities along Australia’s northern and western coasts during the past week.
—Air Canada’s CEO, Michael Rousseau, said on Monday that he would step down, days after criticism over his condolence message, delivered almost entirely in English, after a fatal accident involving an Air Canada plane at New York’s LaGuardia Airport.
The airline said Rousseau would retire by the end of the third quarter. Company directors would evaluate candidates to succeed him based on several factors, “including the ability to communicate in French,” according to its statement.
Canada has two official languages, English and French. Air Canada, whose headquarters are in Montreal, is required to offer services in both languages.
Rousseau faced backlash after releasing a video primarily in English and little French – he said “bonjour” and “merci” – that was criticized as dismissive of French-speaking Canadians. Politicians quickly voiced their frustration arguing that Rousseau’s inability to speak French showed a disconnect from a significant portion of the country.
Rousseau issued a public apology, saying that his language limitations had shifted focus away from grieving families and the efforts of the airline’s employees.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
4/2…124 percent of 2025 levels
4/1…108
3/31…84
3/30…94
3/29…117
3/28…89
3/27…102
3/26…116
—General Motors sales plunged 9.7% in the first quarter of the year, its biggest drop in almost four years, as high interest rates and vehicle prices across the industry held buyers back even before the impact of rising gas prices is fully felt.
“Abnormal is now normal,” GM North American chief Duncan Aldred said, speaking at an event ahead of the New York Auto Show. A year ago, GM’s sales surged 17%.
Overall, U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to fall 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to research firm J.D. Power. That would be the largest quarterly drop from the previous year since mid-2022, when factory disruptions during the Covid pandemic snarled vehicle production, according to figures from Kelley Blue Book.
Cox Automotive estimates that Ford Motor’s sales in the U.S. fell 9%, while Tesla’s sank 5%. [Tesla’s overall sales rose 6% in the quarter compared with the same period in 2025, including overseas, but deliveries were less than Wall Street expected and the stock fell 5%.]
Honda’s U.S sales fell 5%, while Hyundai reported a 1% gain. Toyota Motor’s were essentially flat in the quarter, but down 8.5% in March. Honda’s were down 12% last month.
Vehicle prices are up from a year ago, and car insurance has outpaced overall inflation for several years, making new-vehicle ownership all the more expensive.
Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor said on Friday that exports to Europe and North Africa, which typically transit through the Middle East, were being disrupted by the conflict in the region, underscoring growing strains on global supply chains.
“Even if the conflict ends, it will take a considerable amount of time to rebuild and restore existing supply chains,” said a senior executive, speaking in Seoul.
—Oracle began to significantly reduce its workforce Tuesday while it continues to build out costly data centers for artificial-intelligence development.
The cloud-computing and database company is cutting jobs across its business lines, according to employees and several posts on LinkedIn. On social media, workers who said they were based in the U.S. and India posted about their positions being eliminated.
The full scope of the layoffs isn’t yet clear, but some employees said internal metrics show the count of reductions thus far in the thousands. Analysts at investment bank TD Cowen earlier this year predicted Oracle would shed as many as 30,000 workers and sell some of its assets as it finances its AI infrastructure projects.
Oracle employed about 162,000 people globally as of end of May.
—OpenAI has secured the largest private financing in Silicon Valley’s history with commitments of $122 billion in new funding that could boost enthusiasm about artificial intelligence and the tech sector in general.
OpenAI is now valued at $852 billion after the funding, which is expected to be the ChatGPT developer’s last major round of investment before an initial public offering, which could come as soon as this year.
OpenAI said Tuesday that it is now generating $2 billion in monthly revenue and that it expects to soon reach one billion weekly active users, although it has discontinued some products in recent weeks.
—Anthropic PBC inadvertently released source code for its popular Claude AI agent, raising questions about its operational security and sending developers on a search for clues about the startup’s plans.
“Earlier today, a Claude Code release included some internal source code. No sensitive customer data or credentials were involved or exposed,” an Anthropic spokesperson said in an emailed statement. “This was a release packaging issues caused by human error, not a security breach. We’re rolling out measures to prevent this from happening again.”
The leak of basic source code – the second slip-up in just a week – triggered a discussion in the community around new revelations of how Anthropic’s popular coding agent works.
Days earlier, Fortune reported that the company accidentally made thousands of files publicly available, including a draft blog post that detailed a powerful upcoming model known internally as both “mythos” and “Capybara” that presents cybersecurity risks.
—According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Americans are increasingly turning against artificial intelligence, with growing majorities saying they fear the fast-moving technology will take away their jobs and hurt education.
Fifty-five percent of Americans say AI will do more hard than good in their day-to-day lives, an 11% increase since last April, according to poll results released Monday.
Americans’ worries are worsening as companies channel huge sums into deploying the technology, which has become an engine for U.S. economic growth. Together, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Google and Microsoft plan to spend a combined $650 billion this year on AI infrastructure.
Nearly two-thirds of American said they think AI will worsen education in the country, while only 27% said they thought the technology will improve schools.
—SpaceX filed confidentially on Wednesday for an initial public offering, setting the stage for what could be one of the largest offerings ever.
The company is committed to debuting in June, and Elon Musk is aiming to raise $50 billion to $75 billion from going public, according to reports.
SpaceX values itself at more than $1 trillion and would be one of the most valuable companies to reach the stock market, after Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut valued the energy giant at $1.7 trillion. Aramco ultimately raised more than $29 billion from its offering.
Since Musk founded the company in 2002 with a goal of sending people to Mars, SpaceX has launched rockets into space and established a popular satellite internet service, Starlink. The company’s customers include the federal government, the Ukrainian military and many others. In the United States, SpaceX accounts for five of every six launches into space, according to Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
In February, Musk merged SpaceX with xAI, his A.I. company.
—Unilever agreed to combined its food business with McCormick in a deal that creates a new sauces-to-spices behemoth valued at more than $65 billion, including debt.
The two companies unveiled the cash-and-stock deal Tuesday. Under the terms of the deal, Unilever and its shareholders are expected to own about 65% of the new, combined foods business. Unilever will also receive a one-time $15.7 billion cash payment.
The combined company will have annual revenue of about $20 billion. It will house Unilever’s brands, including Hellman’s mayonnaise and Knorr soup mixes, alongside McCormick’s red-capped bottled spices and French’s yellow mustard.
[Personally, I’m partial to McCormick’s ‘Garlic Butter Seasoning,’ which I put on everything.]
McCormick Chairman and CEO Brendan Foley is slated to retain those positions with the combined company, while Unilever will appoint four of the 12 members of the combined company’s board.
“Together we created a focused, global flavor powerhouse,” Foley said on an investor call.
But investors were unimpressed, shares in both companies falling.
For Unilever, it’s the biggest portfolio shake-up since it was created nearly a century ago. It is also the company’s most significant move yet to shed slower-growing food brands and push deeper into health and hygiene products.
—Nike reported better-than-expected earnings in its fiscal third quarter, showing progress in its uneven turnaround under CEO Elliot Hill, who took the helm in 2024, and recovery efforts in China.
“This quarter we took meaningful actions to improve the health and quality of our business,” Hill told investors in the release. “The pace of progress is different across the portfolio and the areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum. The work is not finished, but the direction is clear.”
The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.35, beating Wall Street estimates of $0.31. Revenue was flat year over year at $11.3 billion, better than expected, while revenue fell 3% over the prior year when adjusted for currency impacts.
Sales at Converse, which Hill said in a previous quarter is in the “early stages of a global market reset,” fell far more than expected, dropping 35% to $264 million.
Nike shares cratered because the comeback is hitting some bumps, with the sneaker company projecting sales declines ahead, including a sharp drop in its key China market.
The company said on Tuesday that it expects sales to fall by low-single digits from now through the end of 2026, with a 2% to 4% decline in the current fiscal fourth quarter, with the Street forecasting a 1.9% increase this quarter.
The guidance includes projections for a 20% sales decline in China in the current quarter.
—Wednesday was Apple’s 50th birthday. It was in early 1976 in California that Steve Wozniak had just completed the design of a computer circuit board he intended to share with fellow hobbyists at a prominent local club. His friend Steve Jobs also saw a business opportunity to manufacture and sell the boards, and thus Apple was born.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine:
–Satellite imagery and verified videos show Ukraine has repeatedly struck key Russian oil export infrastructure near the Baltic Sea in the past week, leaving some facilities burning for several days.
BBC Verify has confirmed at least three oil sites in Russia’s Leningrad region were attacked near the city of St. Petersburg, about 500 miles north of the Ukrainian border, since March 23.
This includes several separate strikes on the key Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk as well as an attack on the nearby inland Kirishi oil refinery.
According to analysis by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 22% of Russia’s total oil exports in 2025 departed from Primorsk and 20% from Ust-Luga.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that allies have asked Kyiv to reduce attacks on Russia’s energy sector because of the global energy crisis. He added they would only end if Russia stopped targeting Ukraine’s energy system.
Alexander Lord, an analyst at UK-based intelligence company Sybelline, said it’s “likely that Kyiv is attempting to offset the revenue windfall that Russian oil and gas exporters are otherwise currently enjoying.”
But Lord added the longer the war continues, the more likely it becomes that the “U.S. will attempt to pressure Ukraine to stop these targeted strikes, as part of wider efforts to suppress global oil prices.”
Today, Friday, Russia launched a “massive” missile and drone attack near the capital, strikes killing at least eight people.
Ukrainian officials claim the Kremlin is changing its tactics to increase civilian suffering, shifting to daytime barrages and preparing to target more key infrastructure.
President Zelensky told reporters on Thursday that Ukraine is preparing for Russian aerial attacks that could target water systems, logistics and other critical networks. After months of sustained strikes on power facilities, Kyiv now expects increased pressure elsewhere.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo / NY Post
“After four years and unfathomable amounts of wasted blood and treasure, Russia not only isn’t winning its war on Ukraine – it’s facing its worst setback in some time.
“Last Monday, Ukrainian drone attacks on the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk brought an estimated 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity to a halt, a catastrophic development for a sputtering economy that’s heavily dependent on its energy sector.
“The Primorsk strike capped off a tremendous breakthrough in Kyiv’s efforts to push back Russian forces in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian mines, mortars, artillery and unmanned aircraft reportedly killed 6,000 advancing soldiers between March 17 and March 20.
“Yet according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the United States is now pressuring Ukraine to cede the critical Donbas region to Russia in return for security guarantees.
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied Zelensky’s assertion, insisting that the U.S. is merely acting as a neutral interlocutor between Russia and Ukraine.
“I pray that it is so.
“Settling the war in Ukraine on Russia’s terms, at a time when Russia is on the back foot, would fatally undermine the incredible progress the president has made in restoring American deterrence.
“It would embolden our enemies at a time when we cannot afford to show weakness.
“Not only that, it would cave to the demands of a state that’s currently supplying Iran with the weapons and intelligence needed to kill American servicemen and women. The president has always understood that thugs like Vladimir Putin only respect strength….
“Russia has long partnered with America’s adversaries to undermine those core interests.
“But today, it poses an even more immediate threat by providing Iran with drones, satellite imagery, intelligence support and targeting data.
“According to Zelensky, Putin is now using his mafia tactics to try to ‘blackmail’ the United States, offering to end its Iran assistance if the U.S. stops providing intel to Ukraine.
“What would it say to the world – and specifically, to China’s Xi Jinping – if we were to give the impression that such threats are effective?
“History proves that appeasement is always more dangerous than standing one’s ground.
“But given the Kremlin’s increasingly weak hand, it’s not only dangerous – it defies logic.
“The casualty rate Russia is reportedly sustaining is absolutely stunning, with leaked military records showing that the odds of surviving on the front lines are close to zero.
“That suggests the commonly cited figure of 1.2 million Russian casualties may be a conservative estimate.
“Despite Russia’s willingness to use soldiers as cannon fodder, Ukraine has spent the past three months steadily recapturing territory, and has gained a global reputation for innovative warfighting and resilience….
“Vladimir Putin is not acting from a position of strength.
“In fact, I’d venture to guess that, having watched the U.S. and Israel decapitate Iran’s entire leadership, he’s pretty nervous right now.
“We should be exploiting that fear, and make it clear to Putin and the rest of the world who has the upper hand.
“We should impose real costs for actively aiding an enemy of the United States, while hardening our support for Ukraine’s war aims.
“The idea that making a deal on Moscow’s terms will strengthen America does not withstand a moment’s scrutiny.
“Doing so would undermine the president’s righteous efforts to reorder the world in America’s favor, and will invite further aggression – not just from Russia, but from bad actors everywhere, including China.
“President Ronald Reagan once said, ‘Appeasement is not the road to peace; it is the road to war.’
“We ignore the warnings of history at our peril.”
North Korea: Leader Kim Jong Un observed a test of an upgraded, high-thrust, solid-fuel engine for weapons and hailed it as a significant development to boost the country’s strategic military capability, state media reported Sunday.
While the test was in line with Kim’s stated goal of acquiring more agile, hard-to-detect missiles targeting the United States and its allies, some experts speculate North Korea’s claim may be an exaggeration.
The Korean Central News Agency reported Kim watched the ground jet test of the engine using a composite carbon fiber material; the test part of the country’s five-year arms build-up meant to upgrade “strategic strike means,” a term referring to nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and other weapons.
But KCNA did not report exactly when or where the test occurred and some experts speculate Pyongyang is “bluffing.”
North Korea’s solid-fuel engine development program may be facing some delays or the country might have determined to develop a better engine, possibly with Russian technical assistance, said Lee Choon Geun of South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute.
Cooperation between North Korea and Russia has deepened, with the North sending troops and conventional weapons to support Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Japan’s first long-range missile was deployed at a southwestern army camp, officials said Tuesday, as the country pushes to bolster its offensive capabilities.
The upgraded missile was developed and produced by Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
“As Japan faces the most severe and complex security environment in the postwar era…it is an extremely important capability to strengthen Japan’s deterrence and responsiveness,” Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters. “It demonstrates Japan’s fierce determination and capability to defend itself.”
The upgraded Type-12 missile has a range of about 1,000km (620 miles), a significant extension from the 200km (125-mile) range of the original that would allow it to reach mainland China.
The day before, China then accused Japan of “dangerously expanding” its defense industry – in capacity, technology and international engagement – and said it had “crossed the red line.”
In a rare full-page report on Monday, PLA Daily claimed Japan possessed an “astonishing” stockpile of nuclear materials and that it had the technology to produce nuclear weapons.
It said 44.4 tons of plutonium had already been separated by the end of 2024 – enough to make about 5,500 nuclear warheads.
The report warned that once Japan had fully broken free from the constraints of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles – that it will not possess, produce or allow the introduction of nuclear weapons – it “could become a de facto nuclear-armed state in an extremely short period of time.”
Israel: As Barack Ravid reported, on Sunday, Israeli police prevented the Latin Patriarch, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem to hold Palm Sunday Mass, which opens the events of the Catholic Holy Week. Despicable.
Jewish historian/author/strategist Aaron David Miller on X:
“The Government of Israel seems to have elevated to an art form alienating and pissing off folks from one end of the planet to the other. And for what?”
Separately, Israel’s Parliament on Monday passed a law approving the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis.
The bill’s passage marked the culmination of a yearslong push by Israel’s far-right to escalate punishment for Palestinians convicted of nationalistic offenses against Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu came to the chamber to vote yes in person.
The law makes the death penalty – by hanging – the default punishment for West Bank Palestinians convicted for nationalistic killings. The law also gives Israeli courts the authority to impose either the death penalty or life imprisonment on its own citizens. It is not retroactive and will apply only to future cases.
The measure has been harshly condemned by Israeli and Palestinian rights groups, who say it is racist, draconian and unlikely to deter attacks by Palestinian attackers.
When the measure passed, the chamber erupted into cheers. Israel’s firebrand minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who spearheaded the push for the legislation, brandished a bottle in celebration. Netanyahu sat motionless.
The bill will not apply retroactively to any of the militants Israel currently holds who attacked the country on Oct. 7, 2023. There is a separate bill under considerable dealing with punishment for the attackers.
Cuba: A Russian oil tanker delivered an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil to Cuba, following President Trump’s comment that he had “no problem” with countries sending oil to Cuba, whether that’s Russia or not.
So much for the U.S. blockade on the country, which has been choking Cuba, leading to daily blackouts, severe gas shortages, soaring prices and deteriorating medical care.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 46% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 52% disapprove (Apr. 3).
A new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll has Trump’s approval rating at just 33%; down five points from July 2025 and 11 points lower than last April. Sixty-two percent disapproved vs. 51% a year ago.
A YouGov/Economist survey has Trump at 35% approval, 58% disapproval.
A Morning Consult survey reveals a 43-54 split.
A new CNN/SSRS poll has Trump at 35% approval, 64% disapproval. On the president’s handling of the economy, only 31% approve, down eight percent since January.
A new Quinnipiac University survey has Trump with a 38% approval rating, 56% disapproval.
When it comes to his handling of the economy, 38% approve, 58% disapprove.
On the situation in Iran, 34% approve, 59% disapprove in the Quinnipiac poll.
A Reuters poll from March 24 had 35% of Americans approve of the strikes on Iran versus 61% who disapprove.
The Reuters survey found Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 36%, his lowest since returning to the White House.
—President Trump on Truth Social:
“Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES! We are the only Country in the World that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look at the dates of this long legislation – THE EXACT END OF THE CIVIL WAR! The World is getting rich selling citizenships to our Country, while at the same time laughing at how STUPID our U.S. Court System has become (TARIFFS!). ‘Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!’”
A day later, Trump posted:
“Birthright Citizenship has to do with the babies of slaves, not Chinese Billionaires who have 56 kids, all of whom ‘become’ American Citizens. One of the many Great Scams of our time!”
And the day after that, Wednesday, a majority of the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Trump’s efforts to limit birthright citizenship during oral arguments.
Key conservative justices raised doubts about the constitutionality of the president’s executive order that would end automatic citizenship for children born on U.S. soil to undocumented immigrants and some temporary foreign visitors.
But several of the justices also asked tough questions of a lawyer for the American Civil Liberties Union, which brought the legal challenge, making the outcome of the legally complicated and hugely consequential case not fully clear.
A decision is expected in the case by the end of June or early July.
—President Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order to create a nationwide list of verified eligible voters and to restrict mail-in voting, a move that swiftly drew legal threats from state Democratic officials ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
The order, which voting law experts say violates the Constitution by attempting to seize states’ power to run elections, is the latest in a torrent of efforts from Trump to interfere with the way Americans vote based on his false allegations of fraud.
The order signed Tuesday calls on the Department of Homeland Security, working in conjunction with the Social Security Administration, to make the list of eligible voters in each state. It also seeks to bar the U.S. Postal Service from sending absentee ballots to those not on each state’s approved list. Trump is also calling for ballots to have secure envelopes with unique barcodes for tracking, according to the executive order. Federal funding could be withheld from states and localities that don’t comply.
“The cheating on mail-in voting is legendary. It’s horrible what’s going on,” Trumps said, as he signed the order. “I think this will help a lot with elections.”
It was in February, in an interview with a conservative podcaster, that Trump said he wants to “take over” elections from Democratic-run areas, citing fraud allegations that numerous audits, investigations and courts have debunked.
The president has no explicit Constitutional authority over elections, and many aspects of the order appear difficult to enforce.
—A federal judge ordered on Tuesday that construction be halted on President Trump’s proposed White House ballroom, to be built in place of the demolished East Wing, saying work must come to a stop until the project receives a go-ahead from Congress.
The decision delivered the first meaningful setback to the president’s increasingly audacious efforts to redesign the White House and Washington.
In a 35-page opinion, Judge Richard J. Leon, an appointee of President George W. Bush, wrote that Trump did not have the authority to act without consulting Congress to replace entire sections of the White House – changes that could endure for generations.
Judge Leon also reiterated concerns he had raised for months in court: that from the start, the administration has provided shifting and questionable accounts of who was in charge of the project and under what authority private donations could be accepted to fund it.
Trump posted on Truth Social:
“In the Ballroom case, the Judge said we have to get Congressional approval. He is WRONG! Congressional approval has never been given on anything, in these circumstances, big or small, having to do with construction at the White House. In this case, even less so, because the Ballroom is being built with Private Donations, no Federal Taxpayer Money!”
And then the ballroom won final approval from a key agency on Thursday, despite Judge Leon’s order.
The 12-member National Capital Planning Commission, the agency tasked with approving construction on federal property in the Washington region, took the vote because Leon’s ruling affects construction activities but not the planning process, said the commission’s Trump-appointed chair, Will Scharf.
—Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday asked U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down and retire effective immediately, a Pentagon official told Military Times.
The abrupt move cuts short George’s tenure, which began in September 2023, well before the end of the typical four-year term. The Pentagon intends to replace him with a leader aligned with Hegseth and President Trump’s vision for the Army, the official added. They did not specify what this vision entails.
George is a West Point grad who served in the Gulf War, with subsequent deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq.
—Pope Leo XIV on Palm Sunday rejected claims that God justifies war, as he prayed especially for Christians in the Middle East during Mass before tens of thousands of people in St. Peter’s Square.
Leo dedicated his homily to his insistence that God is the “king of peace” who rejects violence and comforts those who are oppressed.
“Brothers and sisters, this is our God: Jesus, King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war,” Leo said. “He does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.”
Leaders on all sides of the Iran war have used religion to justify their actions, especially Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have invoked their Christian faith to cast the war as a Christian nation trying to vanquish its foes with military might.
Russia’s Orthodox Church, too, has justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “holy war” against a Western world it considers has fallen into evil.
In a special blessing at the end of Mass, Leo said he was praying especially for Christians in the Middle East who are “suffering the consequences of an atrocious conflict. In many cases, they cannot live fully the rites of these holy days.”
—Thieves broke into an Italian museum this month and made off with works by Renoir, Cezanne and Matisse worth millions of dollars, officials said Monday.
The thieves broke in through the front door of the Magnani-Rocca Foundation, a private art museum in the countryside outside the northern Italian city of Parma, on the night of March 22, said the Carabinieri, the Italian police force investigating the heist. In three minutes, the group made off with three paintings, the police said.
Personally, I’m not a Cezanne or Matisse fan.
—The U.S. is undergoing one of its worst snow droughts in over 20 years, and the recent heat wave across the West has only made the situation worse.
It was a brutal winter for the West, defined by a very mild season with below-average precipitation. If that wasn’t bad enough, an extreme heat wave followed that broke state records and brought summer warmth in March.
Drought has been spiking across the West.
Snowfall stores water during the colder months and provides 50% of the entire water supply across the West.
The unprecedented heat wave causes rapid snowmelt, so the snowpack will be spread even thinner in the drier months.
After the driest and warmest winter on record, Salt Lake City announced a 10% daily cut in water use. Denver, CO, has done the same.
Denver gets much of its water from mountain snow that accumulates east of the Continental Divide and on the western side. Tunnels under the mountains divert half the city’s water from snow-fed streams on the western side.
“We’re 7 to 8 feet of snow shot of where we need to be,” Nathan Elder, water supply manager for Denver Water, said in a statement. “It would take a tremendous amount of snow to recover at this point, so it’s time to turn our attention to preserving what we have.”
The other day, Denver set a new high temperature record for Match of 87 degrees. The previous record of 85 was set a week earlier.
Going back to April 1, 1997, Mother Nature played the ultimate April Fool’s prank on the Northeast, a late-season blizzard that dumped 25 inches of heavy, wet snow on Boston and 36 inches on Milford, Mass., the state’s all-time 24-hour snowfall on record.
Hundreds of thousands were without power, thousands of vehicles stranded.
–Finally, we received some much-needed good news Wednesday evening with the successful launch of Artemis II, the first crewed mission to the Moon in over 50 years,
After orbiting Earth for 24 hours as the crew carried out checks, the astronauts blasted out of Earth’s orbit last night and on to the next phase of their mission – a four-day journey toward the moon.
The Orion spacecraft burned its engines for six minutes, a pivotal move that put Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen on a trajectory that humans haven’t traveled in more than a half-century.
We now pray for the safe return of the four in about 7-8 days.
—
And as always, pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4702…Silver $73.00
Oil $112.06
Bitcoin: $66,870 [1:45 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $4.09; Diesel: $5.53* [$3.26 – $3.63 yr. ago]
*28 cents shy of all-time high.
Returns for the week 3/30-4/3
Dow Jones +3.0% [46504]
S&P 500 +3.4% [6582]
S&P MidCap +3.0%
Russell 2000 +3.3%
Nasdaq +4.4% [21879]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-4/3/26
Dow Jones -3.2%
S&P 500 -3.8%
S&P MidCap +3.1%
Russell 2000 +1.9%
Nasdaq -5.9%
Hang in there.
Happy Easter!!!
Brian Trumbore
