For the week 4/6-4/10

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,407

We are supposed to have peace talks of some kind this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan, between the United States, delegation led by Vice President JD Vance, and Iran’s representatives, which as I go to post are still on.

But Iranian parliament speaker MB Ghalibaf posted on X this morning:

“Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.

“These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.”

In other words, there should be little cause for optimism.

But to switch gears a bit, early in the week, Vice President Vance attended a campaign rally in Budapest for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who faces the biggest threat yet to his 16-year rule in elections this Sunday.

I comment on the topic further below, but for the purposes of my opening, I have never wanted a European to go down in flames in an election as much as I want Viktor Orban to.

This is a bad guy, and I find it appalling how Vance and President Trump have supported the Putin butt-boy, Orban having done all he can as a member of the European Union to block aid for Ukraine, destroy the free press in Hungary, turn the courts into a rubber stamp, and suck up to Vlad the Impaler.

You can argue that Orban did one thing right…prevent a mass influx of immigrants into his country following the Syrian civil war in particular…but it ends there.

President Trump on Truth Social, Thurs. 7:45 PM [Excerpt]

“Election Day is Sunday, April 12, 2026.  Hungary: GET OUT AND VOTE FOR VIKTOR ORBAN.  He is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Hungary – VIKTOR ORBAN WILL NEVER LET THE GREAT PEOPLE OF HUNGARY DOWN.  I AM WITH HIM ALL THE WAY! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Speaking of Ukraine, I’m waiting for Trump to go after President Volodymyr Zelensky again, and I hope for once that Americans will truly listen to Trump’s words.

The last time he commented at length during one of his impromptu pressers in the White House, he called Zelensky “extreme,” while discussing the ‘hatred’ between Zelensky and Putin…Trump saying, “hatred is a bad thing when you’re trying to settle a war.”

Putin invaded Zelensky’s country!!!  Why does he keep saying this?!

The last time Trump had a phone conversation with Putin, the president said he had a “very good call with President Putin, talking about Ukraine…tremendous hatred between Putin and Zelensky.  (Putin) wants to be very constructive.”

Donald Trump will echo these very words again next week at some point…that’s my prediction.  And I want just a few Republican senators with some freakin’ guts to then speak out.

But first, we need Orban’s defeat, and by a wide margin.  Otherwise, the claims of election fraud will ring out among Orban’s supporters…including from President Trump.

—

Tale of the Tape….

Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Apr. 10…$96.20…down $16 on the week….

The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $94.60

Nationwide average prices at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]

Friday, Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Friday, Apr. 10…regular gas $4.15…diesel $5.68 [13 cents from all-time high]

As it all went down in the Middle East, day by day…going back to last Friday, as I posted earlier than usual.

President Trump on Truth Social, Friday, 3:30 PM:

KEEP THE OIL, ANYONE?”

Trump on Truth Social, Saturday, 10:05 AM:

“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.  Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.  Glory be to GOD!”

Iran isn’t currently enriching uranium, U.S. officials have said, and would need to enrich it to weapons grade and also build a warhead or bomb if it wanted to become a nuclear weapons state.  Iran also doesn’t have an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the American homeland, but could have dozens by 2035 should Iran choose to adapt its space launch vehicle, according to a projection last year by the Defense Intelligence Agency.

We learned early Sunday, that the second officer was rescued by U.S. Special Operations forces in a risky Saturday night mission that took commandos deep into enemy territory.

The rescue followed a life-or-death race between U.S. and Iranian forces that stretched over two days to reach the injured airman, officials said.  In the end, the U.S. extracted the officer in a massive operation that involved hundreds of special operations troops.

The two crew members of the F-15E Strike Eagle, the first lost to enemy fire in the month-long war, had both ejected from the cockpit Friday after Iran’s military struck their plane.  The jet’s pilot was quickly rescued, but its weapons systems officer could not be found.

Finding the downed airman, who had been hiding with little more than a pistol as defense, had been the military’s highest priority for two days.

Aside from the special forces troops, dozens of warplanes, helicopters, and cyber, space and other intelligence capabilities were involved in the mission.

U.S. attack aircraft dropped bombs and opened fire on Iranian convoys to keep them away from the area where the airman was hiding.  As U.S. forces converged on the downed airman, a firefight erupted, two senior military officials said after to the New York Times.

President Trump on Truth Social, Sunday, 12:08 AM:

“WE GOT HIM!  My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND!  This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue… He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine.  This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation… WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND!  The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL AMERICANS, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and unite around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World.  GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!”

President Trump on Truth Social, Sunday, 7:52 AM:

“We have rescued the seriously wounded, and really brave, F-15 Crew Member/Officer, from deep inside the mountains of Iran. The Iranian Military was looking hard, in big numbers, and getting close.  He is a highly respected Colonel.  This type of raid is seldom attempted because of the danger to ‘man and equipment.’  It just doesn’t happen! The second raid came after the first one, where we rescued the pilot in broad daylight, also unusual, spending sever hours over Iran.  AMAZING show of bravery and talent by all!  I will he having a News Conference, with the Military, at the Oval Office, on Monday, at 1:00 P.M.  God Bless our great MILITARY WARRIORS!”

Trump on Truth Social, Sunday, 8:03 AM:

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!  Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!  Praise be to Allah.”

Under international law, the military is allowed to strike civilian power plants and other key infrastructure only if it contributes to a military operation and civilian harm is minimized.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Galibaf posted on X:

“1 / Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands.

“Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through your war crimes.

“2 / The only real solution is respecting the rights of the Iranian people and ending this dangerous game.”

The president gave conflicting messages in brief interviews with Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, Sunday, telling Fox that a deal could come as early as Monday, while he gave no definitive answer on the war’s ending to the Journal.

Instead, he told the Journal: “If they don’t come through, if they want to keep it closed, they’re going to lose every power plant and every other plant they have in the whole country,” Trump said.

Pressed on when he thinks the war will end, Trump said, “I will let you know pretty soon.

“But we are in a position that’s very strong, and that country will take 20 years to rebuild, if they’re lucky, if they have a country,” he said.  “And if they don’t do something by Tuesday evening, they won’t have any power plants and they won’t have any bridges standing.”

Asked if he is concerned the people of Iran could suffer if civilian infrastructure is hit, Trump said, “No, they want us to do it,” arguing that Iranian people are “living in hell.”

Trump then cryptically posted at 12:38 PM, Sunday:

“Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”

Karim Sadjadpour, a scholar of Iran at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the New York Times: “I don’t believe that Iranians have rallied around a deeply unpopular regime, but the destruction of infrastructure and rising civilian casualties strengthen the regime’s narrative that this is a war on the nation, not just its rulers.”

Eight OPEC members and allies raised concerns about the toll of the Iran war on oil supplies and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region. The group led by Saudi Arabia met virtually on Sunday and agreed to raise oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels a day beginning in May.

But OPEC+ warned that the damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the conflict ends.  And with U.S. inflation data coming out later this week, the sudden increase in gasoline prices felt by American consumers is set to be on full display.

Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March – the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 – after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon.

Israel and the United States carried out a wave of attacks on Iran on Monday, killing more than 25 people, and Iran responded with missile fire on Israel and its Gulf Arab neighbors.

Among those killed in strikes over the weekend was the head of intelligence for Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, according to Iranian state media and Israel’s defense minister.

In an effort to stop the fighting, Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators sent Iran and the U.S. a proposal that calls for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to give time to try to find a way to end the war, according to various reports.  The proposal was sent late Sunday night to both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff, Mideast officials said.

Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15-20 days to finalize a broader settlement. The deal, tentatively dubbed the Islamabad Accord, would include a regional framework for the Strait, with final in-person talks in Islamabad.

Iran then rejected the proposal and instead said it wants a permanent end to the war, even as President Trump’s ultimatum loomed to avoid a major escalation in attacks against power plants and bridges.

“We won’t merely accept a ceasefire,” Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, head of Iran’s diplomatic mission in Cairo, told the Associated Press.  “We only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again.”

He said Iran no longer trusts the Trump administration after the U.S. bombed the Islamic Republic twice during previous rounds of talks: The “White House assassinated the negotiating table.”

Iran’s rejection came after Israel struck a key petrochemical plant in the South Pars natural gas field and killed two paramilitary Revolutionary Guard commanders.

The gas field attack aimed at eliminating a major source of revenue for Iran, Israel said. The field is shared with Qatar and is the world’s largest.

The clock was ticking between the United States and Iran, Israel more than just a bystander….

President Trump on Truth Social, Tuesday, 8:06 AM ET:

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.  I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.  However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?  We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.  47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”

West Texas Intermediate surged to $116 a barrel on the post.

Israeli airstrikes hit two bridges and a train station in Iran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants.

The U.S. also struck military targets on the Iranian oil hub of Kharg Island, according to White House officials.  The attack marked the second time the island was targeted.

Trump has extended previous deadlines but suggested the one set for 8 p.m. in Washington was final, and the rhetoric on both sides reached a fever pitch, leaving Iranians on edge.  President Trump insists Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Monday that it “officially rejects” the U.S.’s proposed 15-point peace plan to end the conflict, calling it “unrealistic.”

“Iran firmly refuses any negotiations conducted under the shadow of illegal sanctions, military threats, or coercion,” the Iranian government said in a post on X, adding diplomacy requires “mutual respect, not pressure.”

Trump told reporters Monday that Iran’s latest offer was “significant” but not “good enough” to avoid attacks on its power plants and bridges.

Iran is insisting on a permanent end to hostilities and delivered its own 10-point proposal, which includes a guarantee that Iran not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and a lifting of all sanctions.

Tehran has acknowledged that messages have been sent through intermediaries but says there have been no direct contacts or substantive negotiations.  A regional official familiar with the messages said there was no common ground between the U.S. and Iranian lists.

Among the problems in getting negotiations off the ground, the official told Reuters, are Israeli strikes that have killed successive rounds of Iranian leaders and that internal communications among those trying to avoid the same fate are spotty because of the bombing and an internal internet shutdown. Any Iranian response was taking at least 24 to 36 hours.

President Trump alluded to those difficulties on Monday, with Steve Witkoff telling him, “The biggest problem we have in our negotiation is that they can’t communicate. …We’re communicating like they used to communicate 2,000 years ago, with children bringing a note back and forth.”

Pakistan said that efforts to facilitate talks between the United States and Iran are ongoing, but Islamabad wasn’t optimistic, saying recent developments have dealt a serious setback to peace efforts.

Addressing the Pakistani Senate, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that until last night he had been hopeful, but recent “dangerous developments” have again escalated the situation.

Iran then cut off contact with the U.S., though back-channel negotiations continued.  Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said his country “has finalized the necessary measures in detail for all scenarios,” according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. 

Pakistan also said it will stand with Saudi Arabia under its defense pact if the war escalates further.

There were concerns that further escalation Tuesday night would cause Iran’s allies to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

That said, several Asian countries including Pakistan, India and the Philippines have made agreements with Tehran to let some ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely.  China has also acknowledged that their vessels have used the channel.

Trump’s threats drew rebukes from across the political spectrum. Trump ally Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) said U.S. bombing of Iranian civilian infrastructure “would be a huge mistake.”  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) called Trump “an extremely sick person” and House Democratic leadership called for lawmakers to return to Washington immediately to hold a vote to end the Iran war.

Influential right-wing podcaster Tucker Carlson said U.S. officials should resist any potential attempt by Trump to launch mass attacks that would kill Iranian civilians.  Pope Leo XIV rebuked Trump’s threat regarding Iran as “truly unacceptable.”

And then we sat back and waited…and at 6:32 PM ET, Tuesday, an hour-and-a-half before the deadline, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Based on conversations with Prime Minster Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution.  Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Oil prices plummeted in the futures market, from about $112 for West Texas Intermediate to $95.

Early Wednesday local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the country had achieved its war aims and signaled its intention to continue asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said it supports Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, but that it doesn’t include the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

From Iran’s Foreign Ministry Office early Wednesday local time:

“On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.

“In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:

“If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.

“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.

“Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran”

President Trump on Truth Social, 12:01 AM, Wed.

“A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough!  Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made.  Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will.  Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

President Donald J. Trump on Truth Social, 7:22 AM, Wed.

“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change!  There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust.’  It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!).  Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran.  Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to.  Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

Oil dropped further following this post to $93 on WTI, $92 on Brent…down the most in six years.

Both the U.S. and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a “victory,” but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the war to a complete end, such as Iran says it will allow free passage for the next two weeks through the Strait, but in coordination with Iran’s armed forces, with Iran collecting a toll.

Some of Trump’s biggest backers – and strongest proponents of the attacks – expressed caution.

“We must remember that the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said on X. “Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.”

Iran hoped China could be one of the security guarantors of peace in the region, Iranian ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said in Beijing on Wednesday.

But he also warned of a strong “fightback” from Iran if the United States betrayed its trust again.

“We hope different sides could guarantee that the U.S. would not resume the war, we hope the UN Security Council, big countries like China and Russia, as well as mediating countries like Pakistan and Turkey to work together to guarantee peace in the region,” Fazli told a press conference in the Chinese capital.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse following the announcement of a ceasefire, President Trump said he believed China had played a key role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei stock index was up about 5.4%, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained 6.8%.

In terms of fundamental issues that were resolved overnight, “Iran remains in the control of the Strait, which was not the case before the war,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “I find it hard to believe that the United States and the world could accept a situation in which Iran remains in control of a key energy checkpoint indefinitely.  That would be a materially worse outcome than existed before the war.”

“Maybe this will work out,” said Fontaine, a former aide to the late Senator John McCain. “But there is a chance that this ends with the U.S. and the world in a worse situation than when it started.”

President Trump, Wednesday morning:

“A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT”

London’s FTSE index rose 2.5%, while the German DAX surged 5.1%.

But the Strait of Hormuz reopened only with limited traffic: Several ships have crossed the vital shipping passage, according to the New York Times, but there hasn’t been a full-scale return of traffic, as some vessels seem wary of crossing because of the risks and unknowns.

And then Iran paused oil tanker traffic through the Strait after Israel attacked Lebanon.

The Financial Times reported that Iran is planning to charge the cryptocurrency equivalent of $1 per barrel of oil passing through the Strait.

Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the Emirates’ Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, as well as head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), commented late Wednesday in a LinkedIn post:

“Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open.  Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” he said, adding that passage subject to political leverage cannot be considered free navigation.

“The Strait must be open fully, unconditionally and without restriction.  Energy security and global economic stability depend on it,” he said.

“Every day the Strait remains restricted, the consequences compound.  Supply is delayed, markets tighten, prices rise.  The impact is felt beyond energy markets, in economies, industries and households worldwide,” Al Jaber said.

ADNOC has cargoes ready and plans to scale up output, though operations remain linked to safety conditions and damage sustained during recent attacks.

Yes, a few ships, a handful, are getting through, but many of these are Iranian oil tankers, and those of its allies, or tankers bound for India containing mostly cooking oil, which the nation is quickly running short of.

As of Al Jaber’s post, there were an estimated 230 vessels loaded with oil waiting to sail, a real supply chain mess.

Meanwhile, it was announced Wednesday that Vice President JD Vance was going to Pakistan this weekend (along with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) for talks with Iranian negotiators.

All the while, Pakistan is saying its understanding was that Lebanon was to be included in the ceasefire.  This is a huge issue. Netanyahu says Lebanon is not included, and President Trump agreed.

The Israeli military carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, pounding Beirut again with reports of a high number of casualties, hospitals overwhelmed and people believed to be under the rubble of collapsed buildings.

Israel described it as the largest wave of air strikes in this conflict, hitting more than 100 of what it called Hezbollah command centers and military sites in 10 minutes.

Across Lebanon, more than 1,500 people have been killed, including 130 children.

More than 1.2 million people have been displaced – one in five of the population – most of them from Shia Muslim communities in the south, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut, areas where Hezbollah holds sway.

After posting to social media that an Iranian delegation is set to arrive in Islamabad tonight for negotiations with the U.S., Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, deleted the post.

Wednesday night, President Trump posted:

NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.  REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!! President DJT”

Oh brother.

Later Wednesday night, 11:46 PM…President Trump on Truth Social:

“All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.  If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.  It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.  In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest.   AMERICA IS BACK!”

Next conquest?

Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have killed “dozens” of Hezbollah fighters in its “expanded” ground military operation in southern Lebanon over the past week.

Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 182 people were killed in Wednesday’s massive assault on the country. The 1,500 figure from above was prior to Wednesday.

President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire.  Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, who mediated the talks, maintains it was.

Vice President JD Vance sought to play damage control on Wednesday afternoon, calling it a “legitimate misunderstanding” in remarks to reporters.

“I think that the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t.  We never made that promise,” he said. “That said, the Israelis as I understand it…have actually offered to frankly check themselves a little bit in Lebanon because they want to make sure that our negotiation is successful.”

Israel hardly “checked” itself Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Iran made a rare reference to sea mines at the Strait of Hormuz, with the Ports and Maritime Organization announcing two designated safe routes for vessels entering and exiting Hormuz, state-run Nour News said early Thursday.

Despite rhetorical exchanges between the warring sides, there were signs the ceasefire agreement was largely holding, with a notable decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

President Trump on Truth Social, Thurs. 5:08 PM:

“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait – They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

President Trump, Thurs. 6:29 PM:

“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.  That is not the agreement we have! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

President Trump, Fri. 12:28 PM:

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

—

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…titled “Trump Declares Premature Victory in Iran”…

“Did the war with Iran that began with a roar end with a whimper? That’s the way it looks in the cold light of Wednesday after President Trump’s announcement late Tuesday of a two-week cease-fire.  Mr. Trump achieved some of his war aims, but the Iranian regime remains a threat in the Strait of Hormuz and the job is far from finished, despite what he promised last week.

“Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance said the cease-fire is conditioned on Iran’s striking a deal, but it sure sounds like the President wants the war over. ‘A big day for World Peace!  Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough!  Likewise, so has everyone else!’ he posted on Truth Social early Wednesday.

“Will Mr. Trump really start bombing again if Iran draws out talks?  Given the risks to oil prices, count us skeptical.  This President can change his mind in a minute, but this sounds like the end of this round of hostilities. So what is the result? ….

“The biggest disappointments are Iran’s continuing threat to the Strait of Hormuz and what happens to its enriched uranium stockpile. Mr. Trump is sending confusing signals about both that Iran is contradicting.

“On the uranium, Mr. Trump says Iran will turn its stocks over as part of a deal.  Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Iran will either turn it over or the U.S. will go get it.  But the latter would require ground troops and potential casualties. The better time to do that would have been before a cease-fire. If Iran retains its uranium stocks, U.S. and Israeli monitoring will have to be extensive.

“As for the Strait, will Iran now be able to treat it like a toll road?  This isn’t clear but signs aren’t good.  Mr. Trump said Wednesday the U.S. and Iran might have a ‘joint venture’ toll operation in the Strait, which is a bad idea even if Iran accepted it.  Before the war the Strait was a free-flowing international waterway, even if Iran could always have shut it down.  On Wednesday Iran was limiting ship traffic and charging a toll.

“Freedom of navigation has been a bedrock U.S. principle for centuries.  China would be pleased if that principle were abandoned in case it has designs on the straits of Taiwan or Malacca.  If Iran retains a veto over traffic in the Strait, that would count as a U.S. defeat.

“It would also mean a new risk premium is likely to be built into the global price of oil, despite the sharp plunge in the price on news of the cease-fire. Before the war the global price was close to $65 a barrel. Will the new floor be $80, at least for some time?

“Which brings us back to the two-week cease-fire and U.S.-Iran talks.  Mr. Trump said Wednesday that Iran wants a deal, but Iran’s 10-point plan for negotiations is miles away from Mr. Trump’s demands.  Iran wants the U.S. to withdraw from the Middle East, no more attacks by Israel on Hezbollah, and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran, among other things.  The version released in Farsi includes the ‘acceptance of [uranium] enrichment,’ which Mr. Trump has rightly said isn’t acceptable.

“If the regime behaves as it always has, it will claim to want to reach a deal but never will. The talks will stretch through two weeks, then three, then months.  Iran will bet that Mr. Trump won’t resume bombing as the midterm elections approach. The rest of the world – and Republicans in Congress – will lean on Mr. Trump not to resume the fight.”

President Trump then posted in part on Truth Social, Thurs. 5:28 PM:

“The Wall Street Journal, one of the worst and most inaccurate ‘Editorial Boards’ in the World, stated that I ‘declared premature victory in Iran.’  Actually, it is a Victory, and there’s nothing ‘premature’ about it!  Because of me, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON and, very quickly, you’ll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran and, to me, it makes no difference, either way.  The Wall Street Journal will, as usual, live to eat their words. They are always quick to criticize, but never to admit when they’re wrong, which is most of the time! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on the U.S. and NATO….

“Could the Iran war do what even Vladimir Putin couldn’t and blow up the North Atlantic Treaty alliance? That’s no longer an idle question as most of Europe refuses to help the U.S., and President Trump responds by threatening to leave NATO. This would be the dumbest alliance breakup in modern history.

“The immediate fault here lies with Europe. Spain and Italy are blocking U.S. military flights for  Iran from their bases, and Mr. Trump says the Macron government has blocked flights over France. Add its reluctance to help clear the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe is playing into every MAGA stereotype about a one-sided Western alliance.

“Europe’s frustration with Mr. Trump is understandable given his failure to consult about the war in advance and his taunts about occupying Greenland.  Mr. Trump’s refusal to do more to help Ukraine resist Russia is another legitimate gripe.

“Yet as we warned when the war started, Europe might come to regret not helping in the Persian Gulf when Mr. Trump asked. The U.S. President wouldn’t ask if he didn’t need the help, and this was a chance to show the alliance is a two-way street.

“Europe’s economy is vulnerable to Iran’s ability to hold oil flows hostage, as prices spike and shortages loom.  The Continent should want to reopen the Gulf quickly and avoid another surge of refugees. Europe’s capitals are in range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, and decades of under investment also means Europe can’t defend itself without U.S. help….

“A U.S. withdrawal from NATO would nonetheless serve only Russia, Iran and China. Blowing up NATO has been the main goal of Russian strategy since the alliance formed in 1949.  Mr. Putin would be emboldened – and at the very time Ukraine is showing new strength in resisting Russia’s invasion forces.

“The larger reality is that Russia and Iran are working together as an axis against the West. The two share weapons, especially drones and missiles, and Russia is providing intelligence to Iran about American targets.  Mr. Trump is especially obtuse on this point, refusing even to acknowledge this Russian harm to U.S. troops, much less condemn it.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ducks the question whenever he’s asked about it.

“This axis of adversaries that includes China wants to weaken the Western alliance and the free world.  It wants the U.S. and Israel to fail to defeat Iran, and Russia to defeat Ukraine militarily and become the dominant power in Europe.  If the Western allies let this happen, it will be the height of folly and an historic tragedy.”

—President Zelensky said Ukrainian military personnel have shot down Iranian-designed Shahed drones in multiple Middle Eastern countries during the Iran war, describing the operations as part of a broader effort to help partners counter the same weapons used by Russia in Ukraine.

Ukraine expects reciprocal aid for its efforts.

–Lastly, Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah said on Tuesday, April 7, that it would release abducted U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson, adding she must leave Iraq immediately.

Kittleson, 49, was kidnapped on March 31 on a busy street in central Baghdad.

A spokesperson for Kataib Hizballah said Kittleson was released “in appreciation of the patriotic positions” of Iraq’s prime minister, who had been negotiating for her release.

—

Wall Street and the Economy

President Trump on Truth Social, last Friday night:

“A very happy and blessed Good Friday to all, especially to the 186,000 Americans who gained Private Sector jobs in the month of March alone!  My Economic Policies have created an enormously powerful engine of Economic Growth, and nothing can slow it down. Factory Construction jobs are soaring as a result of the rapid Onshoring and surging Investment that TARIFFS have generated, all while the Trade Deficit has shrunk by 52% in a year! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Trump on Truth Social, Saturday, 9:32 AM:

“Not only were the jobs numbers GREAT yesterday, 178,000 new jobs, but the TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history.  THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!  All of this and, simultaneously, getting rid of a Nuclear Iran. MAGA!”

In the real world, we had a final reading on fourth-quarter GDP, 0.5%, and the Atlanta Fed’s barometer for first-quarter growth is at 1.3%.  And now we’ve had an energy shock.

On the inflation front, February PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data came in as expected, 0.4% on headline, 2.8% year-over-year, while on core, ex-food and energy, the figures were 0.4%, 3.0%…all four readings exactly as forecast…but this was February, pre-war.

Separately, personal income was -0.1% in the month, far below forecasts, and consumption rose 0.5%, in line.

More importantly, we also had March CPI numbers, the war having its initial impact (though the data-collection is through mid-month) and headline CPI rose a robust 0.9%*, 3.3% year-over-year, and on core, 0.2% and 2.6%…which was a little better than expected, though the 2.6% is vs. February’s 2.5%.

*Highest since June 2022, the month inflation peaked at 9.1% on headline CPI, and the same month prices at the gas pump for both regular and diesel hit their all-time highs.

Of course, Democratic politicians will latch onto the headline 3.3% number, and rightfully so, but the Federal Reserve is more focused on core figures, including for its preferred inflation barometer, the PCE.  And it will lock onto March and April figures for that metric when they are released.

[One item in the CPI, ‘food at home,’ or groceries, declined -0.2% in March but prices are heading up for two reasons…the sky-high cost of diesel, and rising fertilizer prices.]

In other economic news, the March ISM service sector reading was 54.0, less than expected, but still robust (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).

February durable goods were weak, -1.4%, but up a solid 0.8% ex-transportation.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rated mortgage is 6.37%, down nine basis points on the week.

Next week, earnings season begins to crank up, and we have important March producer price data.

Europe and Asia

We had the March PMI service sector readings for the eurozone this week, courtesy of S&P Global, 50.2 for the EA21, a 10-month low.

Germany 50.9; France 48.8; Italy 48.8 (after 15 months of uninterrupted expansion); Spain 53.3; Ireland 50.7.

Non-eurozone UK 50.5.

Chris Williamson / S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“March’s PMI indicates that the eurozone economy has already been hit hard by the war in the Middle East. The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand. The accompanying surge in prices raises the unwelcome specter of stagflation, or worse, in the near-term.”

Industrial production for the month in February in the EA21 decreased 0.7% compared with January, and was down 3.0% from a year ago.

February retail trade fell by 0.2% from a month earlier, down 1.7% year-over-year. [Both courtesy of Eurostat]

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported out March inflation of 1% annualized, vs. 1.3% the month prior.

But most importantly, producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year in March, beating expectations, and reversing a 0.9% decline in February. This marked the first increase since September 2022, ending its longest deflationary streak in decades, mainly driven by a sharp rise in global commodity prices, particularly energy.

Japan’s producer prices in March rose 2.6% from a year ago.

February household spending rose a solid 1.5% over January.

Street Bytes

—A second straight big rally for stocks after a rough five-week stretch, the Dow Jones rising 3.0% to 47916, the S&P 500 surging 3.6% and Nasdaq 4.7%.  As Ronald Reagan would have said, Nancy fixing him breakfast… ‘Not bad…not bad at all…’

Next week we have Big Bank earnings.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.70%  2-yr. 3.80%  10-yr. 4.32%  30-yr. 4.91%

The bond market was pretty stable this week…not a lot of price action.

Late today we had a release on the federal budget deficit for March, $164.1 billion, compared with a $160.5 billion deficit a year earlier and more than expected.

Customs duties (tariffs) were $22 billion, less than the $30 billion run rate.  Treasury Sec. Bessent has been blowing smoke up everyone’s ass on this topic, let alone the president.

I’ll have more next week.

—OPEC+ warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month.

“Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time,” the group’s ministerial monitoring committee said in a statement after meeting on Sunday.  Any action that jeopardizes security of supply, whether that’s an attack on infrastructure or disruption of export routes, increases market volatility and weakens OPEC+’s efforts, it said.

Before the conflict erupted, eight major nations from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners had been gradually restoring supply halted back in 2023.  They held production steady for the first three months of this year, then on March 1 – a day after the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran – they agreed to a 206,000-barrel-a-day increase for April.

Producers around the Persian Gulf have cut oil output by about 10 million barrels a day, equivalent to roughly 10% of global supplies, the IEA said in mid-March.  With Hormuz largely off-limits, Saudi Arabia has rerouted some shipments to a terminal on its Red Sea coast, while the United Arab Emirates has ramped up exports from a port at Fujairah.

Though the Saudis said attacks on its oil facilities have reduced production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on the East-West Pipeline by approximately 700,000 bpd.

Separately, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said the current oil and gas crisis is “more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979, 2002 together.”

“The world has never experienced a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude,” Birol said in an interview with the Le Figaro newspaper.

He said the European countries, as well as Japan, Australia and others will suffer, but the countries most at risk were developing nations that will suffer from higher oil and gas prices, higher food prices and a general acceleration of inflation.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said Brent crude is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed for another month.

At present, Goldman’s base-case outlook is for energy flows through the Strait starting to pick up from this weekend, followed by a gradual, one-month recovery in Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels.  Under that scenario, Brent is seen averaging $82 a barrel in the third quarter, and $80 in the fourth.

This week oil prices whipped around, generally between $92 and 102 on West Texas Intermediate, which while still very high, as we end the week around $98, that’s quite a comedown from last Friday’s $112 close.

—Exxon Mobil Corp. lost 6% of its global production in the first quarter as the Iran war paralyzed oil and natural gas operations in the Persian Gulf.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely affected Exxon’s operations in the Untied Arab Emirates and Qatar, where it owns stakes in the giant Las Raffan liquefied natural gas complex, the company said in a statement Wednesday.  Those two nations account for about 20% of Exxon’s global annual production.

All of this will impact earnings, with the paper losses partly offset by gains from surging crude and natural gas prices in the period.

—JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual shareholder letter, says a resilient U.S. economy is still threatened by the Iran war, a looming credit cycle, ongoing trade negotiations, and other uncertainties.

“While the economy may be less fragile than in the past, this alone does not mean there is no ‘tipping point’ – it just may mean it could take more straws on the camel’s back to get there,” Dimon wrote.

Dimon said consumers and businesses are still healthy. But he said the Iran war means “we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.”

“The skunk at the party – and it could happen in 2026 – would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” Dimon said, noting that the combination of rapidly increasing oil prices and inflation is viewed as among the main causes of deep recessions in 1974 and 1982.

Ongoing trade negotiations “exacerbate the tense geopolitical issues,” and historically high asset prices “create additional risk if anything goes wrong,” he added.

Dimon, who turned 70 last month, is the longest-servicing CEO of a major U.S. bank.

He also issued a thinly veiled warning to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, saying crushing taxes and red tape are already sparking a “large exodus” of businesses out of the Big Apple.

Dimon stressed New York faces stiff competition from other financial centers both in the U.S. and abroad, suggesting that the hard-left Hizzoner’s tax-and-spend policies would do nothing to help swell City Hall’s coffers.

“Cities – like individuals, companies, and countries – need to compete,” Dimon wrote.  “No matter who you are, you need to deal with reality and the truth.

“The truth is that while New York City has much going for it, particularly for financial companies (because of extraordinary local talent), it also has the highest city and state corporate taxes and the highest individual income and state taxes,” he continues.

“People often make this a moral or loyalty issue, but it is not,” he added, stopping short of mentioning Mamdani by name.

“Companies need to remain competitive in this very tough, fast-moving world. And higher taxes mean lower returns on capital and less competitiveness by their nature,” Dimon wrote.

The CEO noted a clear pattern: wealthy New Yorkers, and major companies are already voting with their feet.

“You can already see a fairly large exodus of people and jobs out of some states with high taxes and high expenses,” he stated.

A spokesperson for Mayor Mamdani told the New York Post that “New York City remains the best place in the world to do business.”

“But the very people who make this city run are being priced out of it. When working people and young families cannot afford housing, when child care costs more than a mortgage in other parts of this country, we are undermining the foundation of our own economy,” the rep said.

“That is why Mayor Mamdani is focused on both sides of this equation: continuing to grow the economy, while finally taking on the cost of living crisis with the urgency it demands.”

On artificial intelligence, JPM has been embracing it, and Dimon has acknowledged the technology will influence how the bank thinks about staffing needs among its 300,000-plus employees.

“AI will affect virtually every function, application and process in the company,” he wrote.  It “will definitely eliminate some jobs, while it enhances others.”

A big concern Dimon highlighted is how the government should help prepare society for the workforce transformation AI is poised to bring.

“There is a possibility that AI deployment will move faster than workforce adaptation to new job creation,” he said.  “Business and government can do many things to properly incent retraining, income assistance, reskilling, early retirement and relocation for those whose jobs might be adversely impacted by AI.”

And Jamie Dimon expresses worries about the future of the European Union.  He has long said that he’s worried about the fate of the Western world, and he put plenty of blame on Europe’s inability to reform and present a united front against world powers like China and Rusia.

“Europe is entering a decisive decade, and it is unable to act,” he said.

But Dimon added: “While America and Europe do have real differences, we believe that a stronger Europe, militarily and economically, is in America’s self-interest.”

—Delta Air Lines shares surged 12% at the open on Wednesday after the company reported first quarter results, saying growth in the premium business will continue to deflect major concerns such as fuel costs and the ongoing government shutdown affecting TSA workers.

For the quarter, Delta posted total revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12.9% from a year ago, and well above the average estimate of $15.03bn.

Delta’s adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.64 vs. the Street’s $0.57, with operating income of $652 million.

Fuel expenses in the quarter came in at $2.591 billion, up 8% compared to a year ago.

Looking ahead, Delta projects Q2 revenue to grow in the “low teens,” with adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.50.

“Demand remains strong, and we are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow,” said CEO Ed Bastian. “This includes meaningfully reducing capacity growth, with a downward bias until the fuel environment improves, and moving quickly to recapture higher fuel costs.”

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025

4/9…117 percent of 2025 levels
4/8…109
4/7…87
4/6…98
4/5…114
4/4…86
4/3…102
4/2…124

—Anthropic, which recently fought the Pentagon over the use of its AI technology, has built a new AI model that it claims is too powerful to be released to the public.

Instead, Anthropic said on Tuesday, it will make the new model – known as Claude Mythos Preview – available to a consortium of more than 40 technology companies, including Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, which will use the model to find and patch security vulnerabilities in critical software programs.

Anthropic said it had no plans to release its new technology more widely, but was announcing the new model’s capabilities in one area in particular – identifying vulnerabilities in software – in an effort to sound the alarm over what the company believes will be a new, scarier era of AI threats.

As my first boss in the professional world, Sharon C., liked to say in commenting on someone’s work, dripping sarcasm, “Terrr-rific…” [Manny R., I hope you see this.]

“The goal is both to raise awareness and to give good actors a head start on the process of securing open-source and private infrastructure and code,” Jared Kaplan, Anthropic’s chief science officer, said in an interview.

This is indeed a serious deal.  Further proof of which is the fact Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that Anthropic’s model (and others of its ilk developed or coming) will usher in an era of greater cyber risk.

Bessent and Powell assembled the group at Treasury’s headquarters on Tuesday to make sure banks are aware of possible future risks posed by Mythos and similar models, and are taking precautions to defend their systems.

—Elon Musk’s SpaceX’s projected $75 billion IPO could rewrite record books, though concerns are mounting that others looking to list in 2026 may find it harder to get deals done under the shadow of the space venture’s headline-grabbing debut.

Analysts and industry experts say the SpaceX deal would likely absorb an outsized share of investor demand, squeezing out other hopefuls.

Companies have waited years on the sidelines for favorable IPO conditions after a prolonged dry spell.  A listing like SpaceX, with its celebrity CEO, hot industry and deep-pocketed backers, could have provided the jolt others need to push ahead.

Instead, the sheer scale threatens to overshadow everyone else.

—Samsung Electronics on Tuesday projected its first-quarter earnings would exceed its entire profit for last year, beating expectations as booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure stretched supply and drove chip prices higher.

Samsung has emerged as one of the major beneficiaries of the AI data center boom that has constrained supply for traditional chips used in smartphones, PCs and game consoles and led to a near-doubling in chip prices in the first quarter alone.

The world’s largest memory chipmaker estimated an operating profit of $37.92 billion for the January to March period, far better than expectations.

The company said revenue was expected to grow 68% in Q1.  The company releases details on April 30.

—TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, on Friday reported a 35% surge in first-quarter revenue, beating market forecasts, thanks to unabated interest in AI applications.

January-March revenue reached $35.71 billion, TSMC said in a statement without elaborating.

The company issues its first-quarter earnings on April 16, along with an updated outlook.

—Walt Disney is planning to cut as many as 1,000 positions in the coming weeks, many of which will be made in the company’s marketing department, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing sources.

The Journal said that plans for the coming job cuts began before Josh D’Amarro assumed his new role as Disney’s chief executive officer in March.

The layoffs, however, would impact less than 1% of its total employees, Disney employing about 231,000 people as of the end of fiscal year 2025.

—Amazon.com said Monday it has reached a new agreement with the U.S. Postal Service on package deliveries.

The deal will result in Amazon, which is USPS’s largest single customer, remaining around 80% of its existing deliveries with USPS, or more than 1 billion packages per year.

Amazon’s plan to replace the Postal Service with its own nationwide delivery service posed an existential threat to the mail agency, which has a roughly $80 billion budget. Amazon represented $6 billion in annual revenue, according to Reuters.

“We’re pleased to have reached a new agreement with USPS that furthers our longstanding partnership and will let us continue supporting our customers and communities together,” Amazon said in a statement.

Amazon earlier had criticized USPS plans to auction off access to its last-mile delivery network.  The retailer had threatened to cut its delivery business at the cash-strapped Postal Service by at least two thirds.

The USPS has operated at a loss for most of the past two decades and reported a net loss of $9 billion in fiscal year 2025.

—Constellation Brands, the U.S. importer of beers including Corona Extra and Modelo Especial beat expectations for fourth-quarter earnings but issued lower-than-expected fiscal 2027 guidance and withdrew its estimates for 2028.

Constellation said beer sales for the quarter increased 1% to $1.73 billion, while wine and spirits sales fell 58% (part of the decline was due to divestitures).

Demand for beer, wine, and spirits has been soft for years, dragging down the shares of alcohol companies like Constellation, but gosh darnit, I’m doing my part to keep beer sales up!

[In the case of Constellation, shifting immigration policies are weighing on Modelo sales in particular.]

—Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital said it had made an offer to buy Universal Music Group, valuing the record label behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny at more than $63.48 billion.

The deal for the world’s largest music company would involve Universal merging with Pershing Square Sparc holdings, an SEC-registered acquisition company.  The newly-created company would be based in Nevada and would shift its stock listing from Amsterdam to the New York Stock Exchange, Pershing said.

—Universal Pictures and Nintendo’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie scored the weekend’s biggest box office hit domestically and internationally, claiming the top spot of the weekend leaderboard with an estimated $372.5 million in global ticket sales through Sunday.

The PG-rated animated adventure, distributed by Comcast-owned Universal, racked up $190.1 million domestically in its first five days, nearly as much in domestic ticket sales as Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary has sold over three weekends ($217.2 million), according to Comscore.

Super Mario Galaxy sold $182.4 million internationally, making its estimated $372.5 million total the largest global box office debut since Walt Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash in December 2025.  The 2023 Super Mario movie sold $204 million in its first five days.

The 2023 The Super Mario Bros. Movie opened to $204 million in domestic ticket sales over its first five days, and ultimately grossed a worldwide total of $1.36 billion, according to Universal.

Foreign Affairs

Russia / Ukraine: Russia’s key Black Sea oil terminal caught fire following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack, Sunday, according to satellite images from NASA.

Images showed fresh blazes in the Novorossiysk port area, this being Russia’s largest port on the Black Sea, hosting multiple facilities for commodity and general cargo exports.  In early March, Ukrainian drone strikes caused a halt in Novorossiysk oil loadings.

The administration in Kyiv has been doing all it can to reduce the Kremlin’s ability to export oil and reap windfall profits from a global crude price hike, driven by the war in the Middle East.  Last month, Ukrainian drones damaged oil facilities in Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Russia’s key ports on the Baltic coast.  Moscow in turn has been attacking power, gas and railway infrastructure in Ukraine.

The relentless drone strikes on oil ports reduced Russia’s seaborne exports in March to the lowest in two months, according to Bloomberg data.

Ukraine has also stepped up strikes on Russian fertilizer operations.

Kyiv dealt with numerous, deadly attacks this week.  One Russian drone strike on a market Saturday in southern Ukraine killed five people and injured 21. The attack took place in the town of Nikopol, across the Dnipro river from land occupied by Russia since their full-scale invasion in February 2022. [Almost half of Nikopol’s 100,000 resident left long ago for safety.]

This came after at least 15 civilians were killed in drone and missiles strikes across Ukraine last Friday.

Meanwhile, Ukraine claims it has regained control of 480 sq. km (185 sq. miles) of territory in the southeastern and eastern parts of the front since late January, army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Monday, adding that Russia was continuing its spring offensive.

After visiting the front, Syrskyi posted on Telegram: “Despite significant losses in personnel and military equipment, the invaders aim to seize more Ukrainian territory and establish a ‘buffer zone’ in the Dnipropetrovsk region.”

Russian troops are gaining ground in the eastern Donetsk region, pressing on in the north of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub, Russian state media quoted Russia’s defense ministry as saying last week.

The battle for Pokrovsk has raged on since mid-2024 as Russia seeks to consolidate its control of the Donetsk region.

Syrskyi said he visited Pokrovsk and ordered additional ammunition and other supplies to strengthen the Ukrainian troops there.

—Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed concern that a prolonged U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could further erode America’s support for Ukraine as Washington’s global priorities shift and Kyiv braces for reduced deliveries of critically needed Patriot air defense missiles.

“We have to recognize that we are not the priority for today,” Zelensky said. “That’s why I am afraid a long (Iran) war will give us less support.”

The latest U.S.-brokered talks between envoys from Moscow and Kyiv ended in February with no sign of a breakthrough. Zelensky, who has accused Russia of “trying to drag out negotiations” while it presses on with its invasion, said Ukraine remains in contact with U.S. negotiators about a potential deal to end the war and has continued to press for stronger security guarantees.

But, he said, even those discussions reflect a broader loss of focus from Ukraine.

His most immediate concern, Zelensky said, are the Patriots, as Ukraine still lacks an effective alternative.

Patriots were never delivered in sufficient quantities to begin with, the president said, and if the Iran war doesn’t end soon, “the package – which is not very big for us – I think will be smaller and smaller day by day.”

“That’s why, of course, we are afraid,” he said.

Zelensky called for a pause in attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure over the Orthodox Easter holiday, which will be observed this coming weekend, Ukraine making the offer through the United States.

“If Russia is ready to stop strikes…we will be ready to respond in kind,” Zelensky said on Monday.  “This proposal, conveyed through the Americans, has already been presented to the Russian side.”

Last Easter, Putin unilaterally declared a 30-hour ceasefire, but each side accused the other of breaking it.

Late Thursday, Putin then announced a 32-hour ceasefire, beginning on Saturday at 4 p.m. in Moscow, and lasting until the end of the following day, according to the Kremlin announcement.

Zelensky approved the move.

China: Xi Jinping ousted a third member of the Communist Party’s elite Politburo in less than six months, extending a withering purge that has severely impacted the top echelons of power in Beijing.

Ma Xingrui, the top official in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang from late 2021 to July last year, has been placed under investigation on suspicion of severe violations of party discipline and state laws, according to a statement issued by the party’s top internal watchdog last weekend.

The statement didn’t elaborate on Ma’s alleged wrongdoing.

Beijing ousted two other Politburo members, both senior generals who were Xi’s top military deputies, in October and January.  The probe against Ma marks the first time the party has purged more than two Politburo members in the same term of office since the Ma Zedong era.

The Politburo now has 21 active members, down from the 24 men who started the current term in 2022.

Ma is also the latest in a series of senior officials with an aerospace background to be targeted in probes that have rocked China’s defense industry over the past two years.

Separately, Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun said she hoped to make the Taiwan Strait “safe” and not one of the world’s “most dangerous places” as she left for Shanghai on Tuesday.

Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng is leading a 14-member delegation – including three KMT vice-chairmen – on a six-day visit to mainland China.

A planned meeting with President Xi has drawn scrutiny in Taipei as tensions soar across the strait.

Lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party raised concerns over what would be discussed and warned the KMT’s exchanges could not be monitored.

Premier Cho Jung-tai called for greater scrutiny of politically influential figures dealing with the Communist Party.

But Cheng, speaking ahead of her departure, called the visit a “journey of peace” and said both sides of the Taiwan Strait should seek dialogue and communication to resolve their differences.

She then met with President Xi on Friday, Xi reaffirming Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the self-governing democracy and warning against outside interference.

“Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to the Chinese nation,” Xi told Cheng, according to an online broadcast of brief remarks between the two party leaders before they went into a closed-door meeting in Beijing.

“Peace must be backed by strength,” Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said in a Facebook post ahead of today’s meeting. Taiwan should “demonstrate resolve to defend ourselves in order to gain the support of our allies,” he added, implicitly endorsing the island’s defense ties with the U.S.

Taiwan is “open to exchanges, but no exchanges should be conducted at the expense of its democracy, freedom, or national interests,” Lai said in a meeting with U.S. senators in Taipei on Wednesday, according to his office.

Taiwanese officials are tracking what they view as a worrying rise in Chinese naval activity and military pressure against the island, even as Cheng is meeting with Xi.

China’s tactics are all the more unnerving for the Taipei government given the opposition continues to stymie a defense spending rise that Washington has pushed for.  The buildup also comes at a time with the U.S. focused on the Middle East and President Trump’s upcoming May meeting with Xi in Beijing.

Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo told lawmakers on Thursday amid anger among the ruling party over the decision by members of the opposition Kuomintang to skip talks on stalled defense spending.

Taiwan has to show its determination to defend itself to the U.S. and other like-minded partners, he added.

“But the most frightening scenario is – if all of our international allies were to question whether we have such resolve, what would we face?  I cannot imagine it.”

North Korea: Pyongyang fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the sea Wednesday in it second launch event in two days, South Korea’s military said, hours after a senior North Korean official released crude insults against Seoul’s hopes for warmer relations.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said several missiles lifted off from North Korea’s eastern coastal Wonsan area on Wednesday morning and flew about 240 kilometers (150 miles) each in a direction toward the North’s eastern waters. It said an additional ballistic missile flew 435 miles off the North’s east coast.

Hungary: U.S. Vice President JD Vance appeared in Hungary at a rally to support the candidacy of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is trailing badly in all the polls as he seeks another term after 16 years of virtually unchallenged rule…the election Sunday, April 12.

Most opinion polls put the opposition Tisza party and its leader Peter Magyar far ahead of Orban’s Fidesz – the latest by 58% to Orban’s 35%. [I’d call it 10 to 20 percent.]

Orban has both the support of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump and has long been a thorn in the side of the EU – and one of the few EU leaders not supportive on Ukraine.  For Europe’s growing brand of nationalist parties, in power or on the brink of it, he is the model.

But the same voter anger against those seen as “corrupt ruling elites” across Europe, is now working against him.  In Hungary, it is now Orban and his Fidesz party who are seen by many, especially the young, as the “corrupt ruling elite.”

The Orban government has been repeatedly accused of draining state coffers and handing out bids to companies owned by close associates. The government explains this concentration of wealth as an attempt to put wealth in national, instead of foreign hands.

The projects include bridges, football stadiums and motorways.  Orban’s son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, owns a string of prominent hotels.  His childhood friend, a former gas fitter, has become the wealthiest man in the country.  Orban refuses to answer questions about the personal wealth of his friends and family.  All deny wrongdoing.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Vance’s Hungarian romance wouldn’t matter all that much if it weren’t damaging to U.S. interests. The Veep hailed Mr. Orban as a ‘statesman’ for his alleged role in negotiations to end the Ukraine war, though the Prime Minister is Vladimir Putin’s best European friend west of Belarus. The Russian is also trying to help Mr. Orban, for example, by blaming Ukraine Monday for the bomb allegedly discovered on a Russian gas pipeline to Hungary.

“Mr. Vance likes to say Europe should play the leading role in supporting Ukraine, since Ukraine doesn’t matter to the U.S. – yet Mr. Orban is obstructing a European financial plan to do exactly that.  The Hungarian is also trying to deepen commercial ties with China.

“Mr. Vance’s support for Mr. Orban is so strong that he is wrapping his arms around him even as Mr. Orban may lose Sunday’s election amid frustration with the poor state of Hungary’s economy. The alternative, far from a woke bogeyman, is a conventional center-right politician, Peter Magyar.  He’d also be a U.S. ally if Mr. Vance doesn’t alienate him.

“American conservatives have plenty of reasons to distrust Europe. But Mr. Vance isn’t wining many friends for America by treating Hungary’s election like it’s the Iowa caucuses.”

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Rasmussen: 45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 54% disapprove (Apr. 10).

–With so much going on last Friday, I didn’t comment on the administration’s 2027 budget request, which included $1.5 trillion in spending for the Pentagon.  I am totally in favor of this.

Of course, at the same time, nothing on entitlements and reform of same.

The budget includes massive proposed cuts to federal agencies and programs that the administration argued represented wasteful government spending.  OMB requested that lawmakers reduce funding for the Environmental Protection Agency by 52 percent or $4.6 billion; the State Department and other international programs by 30 percent or $15.5 billion; the Department of Labor by 26 percent or $3.5 billion and the Department of Agriculture by 19 percent or $4.9 billion.

–On a trip to South Korea, French President Emmanuel Macron called on medium-sized powers to join forces and stand up to the U.S. and China.

Macron hammered the message during his tour of Asia, where he discussed maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and closer cooperation with South Korea and Japan – two countries badly suffering from high energy costs at the war in Iran keeps the Strait closed.

“Our objective is not to be the vassals of two hegemonic powers,” he told students in Seoul. “We don’t want to depend on the dominance, let’s say on China, or we don’t want to be too much exposed to the unpredictability of the U.S.”

He ticked off other similarly aligned countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada and India.  Together, he argued, this coalition can work on artificial intelligence, space, energy, nuclear energy, defense, security – “whatever.”

“The U.S. is a great country,” Macron said, but is risking opening ‘Pandora’s Box’ with its current approach.

“I don’t believe that we will fix the situation just by bombing or by military operations,” he argued, alluding to Iran.  The French leader cited Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan: “We never deliver.”

—Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal (from last weekend’s edition):

“Ronald Reagan late in his presidency, in a valedictory appearance at a Republican National Convention, spoke of how he personally experienced the office: ‘You don’t become president of the United States. You are given temporary custody of an institution called the presidency, which belongs to our people.’  He approached his two administrations as ‘a sacred trust.’  This was pushback against the idea of an imperial presidency, in which man and office are fused and personal power the point. But man’s life is limited and the institution is continuous, an inheritance accumulated across time.  It was also a rebuke to the idea of grandiosity, in which inflated self-regard amounts to a distorted relationship with reality.

“The Founders would agree.  James Madison felt the ambitions and vanities of men must be countered and balanced through conscious governmental structures.  Alexander Hamilton wanted energy in the executive – the president must be strong enough to do what is necessary, to lead and leave his mark, but that office can’t become a tool of personal ambition, whim or will.  President Washington’s actions were more eloquent than words can be: When he left office and lay down power, he was implying the presidency ran through him but would now be redirected, by the people, to run through someone else for a time, and so on.

“It’s all gotten too ego-driven, too strangely dependent on the magic of personality, too vainglorious and, yes, grandiose. This style has been growing, unevenly, among presidents for some time, but never as it is now and under Mr. Trump….

“At the beginning of the war, exact U.S. objectives weren’t clearly or formally stated, and I guessed the president would make them clear the day operations cease. Whatever the state of play at that point will be exactly what he set out to achieve. I still believe that is true.

“And if he’s in the mood for it, we’ll have a parade.

“The president’s foes keep saying we are losing our democracy, but if we continue down this path we will lose our republic – chipping away at its balance, its expectations and wisdom.

“Imagine a Congress that looks at a war and denies it’s a war so it won’t have to debate the war in front of the American people.

“Imagine a president going to the Supreme Court oral arguments on birthright citizenship and sitting in the audience to stare down the justices who may rule against his government’s case.  That actually happened Wednesday morning. It has never happened before in all U.S. history.  (And surely, it will prove a miscalculation. That court is not going to be afraid of his glowering visage. That court is part of a branch that still knows its job.)

“This whole big shambolic miracle machine only keeps rolling because we are an amazing thing – a democratic republic. Both are important words, both essential.  But ‘democratic’ is an adjective modifying a noun.

“In a republic, the noun, supreme power is held by the people and their elected representatives, constrained by law. In a democratic republic the people choose those representatives through elections with broad suffrage. The republic brings with it constitutional limits, separations of power.  Democracy brings with it popular will, and implies popular passion, and the possibility of excess.

“We are both, and must be.”

—In a truly pathetic Truth Social post at 4:28 PM on Thursday, an incredibly long post, President Trump, who is being blistered from parts of the base, started out:

“I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon – Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs.  They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too!”

The president went on and on…frankly, kind of sick…especially given everything else he has on his plate.

–Speaking of what the [heck]…First Lady Melania Trump is denying ties to Jeffrey Epstein and knowledge of his crimes, saying Thursday that the “stories are completely false” and calling online accusations that she was somehow involved “smears about me.”

“The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. The individuals lying about me are devoid of ethical standards, humility and respect.  I do not object to their ignorance, but rather I reject their mean-spirited attempts to defame my reputation,” she said.

Reading an extraordinary statement at the White House, Melania denied any association with Epstein and said, “My attorneys and I have fought these unfounded and baseless lies with success.”

The first lady also called on Congress to hold a public hearing centered on survivors of Epstein’s crimes, with a chance to testify before lawmakers and have their stories entered into the congressional record.

“Each and every woman should have her day to tell her story in public if she wishes,” she said. “Then, and only then, we will have the truth.”

Talk about out-of-the-blue…And the message came just as her husband, and his administration, appeared to be finally successful in moving beyond the Epstein controversy.

But Melania’s comments could push it back into the political spotlight.

The first lady said she was not friends with Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell but was in overlapping social circles in New York and Florida…cough cough….

—Savannah Guthrie returned to the Today Show Monday.  But in a video for Good Shepherd New York’s digital Easter gathering Sunday, Guthrie talked about the importance of Easter and the happiness it brings in the Christian faith, before acknowledging she was currently having a hard time.

“We celebrate today the promise of a new life that never ends in death.  But, standing here today, I have to tell you, there are moments in which that promise seems irretrievably far away,” she said.  “When life itself seems far harder than death.”

“These moments of deep disappointment with God, the feeling of utter abandonment,” she continued.  “For most of us, there will come a time in our life when these feelings hold sway.”

Savannah went on to note that according to her faith, she’s taught to take comfort in the fact that Jesus also experienced pain. But again, she noted she’s currently questioning feelings.

“Recently though, in my own season of trial, I have wondered,” she said. “I have questioned whether Jesus really ever experienced this particular wound that I feel – this grievous and uniquely cruel injury of not knowing, of uncertainty and confusion and answers withheld.”

“In those darkest moments, I have thought bitterly and perhaps irreverently, that I have stumbled upon a feeling that Jesus did not know.”

She noted that “it isn’t wrong to think such thoughts, to challenge our God with questions.”

“It is the darkness that makes this morning’s light so magnificent, so blindingly beautiful.  It is all the brighter because it is so desperately needed,” she explained.

“So I close my eyes this morning and I feel the sunshine,” she added.  “I see a bright vision of the day when heaven and earth pass away because they are one on earth as it is in heaven.”

Pope Leo XIV, in his Easter message at St. Peter’s Square, called on “those who have the power to unleash wars” to choose peace.

“We are growing accustomed to violence, resigning ourselves to it, and becoming indifferent, indifferent to the deaths of thousands of people,” the pope said.

“Let those who have weapons lay them down. Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace.”

Leo is leaving Monday for a visit to four countries in Africa, in an ambitious tour to urge global leaders to address the needs of the continent where more than a fifth of the world’s Catholics live on his first major overseas trip of 2026.

Over 10 days, April 13-23, the pope will travel nearly 11,200 miles to visit 11 cities and towns in Algeria, Cameroon, Angola and Equatorial Guinea as part of a whirlwind itinerary that includes 18 flights.  Eegads.

–On a lighter note, there were reports on April Fools’ Day of the death of the world’s oldest living land animal – a 193-year-old tortoise called Jonathan – but it was a hoax.

The head of communication on the island of St. Helena assured everyone “that he is very much alive.”

Imagine. It is believed that Jonathan was brought to the island when he was about 50 years old, 1882.

The St. Helena government sent a photo of Jonathan roaming the grounds, taken last Thursday.

The island is best known as the place Napoleon Bonaparte was exiled following his defeat by the British at Waterloo in 1815.  It was where the former emperor died in 1821, about a decade before Jonathan is believed to have taken his first steps.

I mean the dude was born between the two terms of Andrew Jackson. Amazing.

Alas, we had bad news from the Animal Kingdom this week.  Emperor penguins and the Antarctic fur seal were moved to the endangered species list by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the body that tracks extinction risk to plants and animals globally.

It’s all about the loss of sea ice in the Antarctic, wildlife groups said.

The Emperor penguin has already lost 10% of its population, according to satellite images taken from 2009 to 2018, the IUCN stated, making them “the most threatened birds on Earth.”

—A developing El Nino – and potential “Super El Nino” – will be one of the biggest forces driving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Nina. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Nino pattern.

So you might be thinking, warmer water is further fuel for hurricanes, but El Nino creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to take shape.

Forecasters say a Super El Nino would likely impact weather in the second half of the hurricane season, August through October.

“On average, El Nino seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Nina years.  Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes,” Accuweather said.

—The crew of Artemis II flew by the moon, Monday, and at the closest distance any human has gotten to the moon in more than 50 years.

Just after 7:00 PM ET, astronauts snapped images of the moon’s far side – a vantage that is never seen from Earth.

As they approached the moon, the Artemis II crew also broke the record for the farthest distance any humans have traveled in space, surpassing the distance the Apollo 13 crew traveled in 1970.

The photos of the journey are spectacular.

And now we say a prayer for a safe return to Earth in mere hours. 

I’ll say more next time.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4760…Silver $76.25
Oil $96.20

Bitcoin: $73,250 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]…good week for crypto…

Regular Gas: $4.15; Diesel: $5.68 [$3.22 – $3.61 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 4/6-4/10

Dow Jones  +3.0%  [47916]
S&P 500  +3.6%  [6816]
S&P MidCap  +3.4%
Russell 2000  +4.0%
Nasdaq  +4.7%  [22902]

Returns for the period 1/1/26-4/10/26

Dow Jones  -0.3%
S&P 500  -0.4%
S&P MidCap +6.6%
Russell 2000  +6.0%
Nasdaq  -1.5%

Hang in there. Enjoy The Masters…a tradition unlike any other…on CBS….

Brian Trumbore