[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,414
As of 2:00 PM ET today, President Trump was holding a Situation Room meeting in the White House with his advisors, following a lengthy Truth Social post on the Iran war and a potential agreement, that I’ve noted in full down below.
Trump said “Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb,” and that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, all sea mines destroyed and that the “Nuclear Dust…will be unearthed by the United States…in close coordination with” Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and “No money will be exchanged.”
Iran’s main negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Friday that it has “no trust in guarantees or words,” only actions.
“No steps will be taken before the other side acts,” Ghalibaf wrote on X. “We do not gain concessions through talks, but through missiles.”
Well, the equity markets, globally, have been rallying all week on the belief that the Strait is about to reopen fully and that we will quickly get back to normal. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which was $106 two weeks ago, and gasoline futures, which were at $3.75, are below $88 and $3.05, respectively, this afternoon.
I’d say it’s just not that easy, but sentiment, rather than facts, can drive markets for a while before reality hits them in the face.
On another front, the war in Ukraine, Russia has been bombing the hell out of the capital, Kyiv, with President Putin, through Foreign Minister Lavrov, telling the U.S. to evacuate any citizens remaining in Kyiv.
I went to Ukraine, and Kyiv, back in March 2006, a year after the Orange Revolution. And, distressingly, in reading articles on the latest horrific bombing of the city, I saw this:
“Non-military targets such as the Chernobyl Museum in Kyiv’s historic district and the National Art Museum of Ukraine were damaged or destroyed.”
That sucks.
I went to both, and as I’ve spelled out in these pages, particularly in the case of the former, it was highly educational.
But that’s what Russia does. For 4+ years it has been destroying not just Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and countless towns and villages, but it has been wiping out, attempting to erase, the country’s culture and history, such as in places like Odesa as well, bit by bit.
At least Ukraine is close to having the military capability to do major damage to Russia’s own cultural and historical institutions, including inside the Kremlin’s walls.
All this time, not one post from President Trump.
I’m astounded, and depressed, that more Americans aren’t outraged.
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, May 29…$87.80
The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $91.65.
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, May 29…regular $4.39; diesel $5.52
Iran…as it went down, day by day….
President Trump on Truth Social, Sat. 4: 30 PM:
“I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of the United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamin bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minster Ali al-Thawadi of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of Turkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE. An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed. Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Thank your for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
In the immediate reaction Saturday, the agreement wouldn’t achieve Trump’s main goal of preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. But it would prevent the restart of a war Middle Eastern countries didn’t want and begin to alleviate a global economic crisis spurred by Iran’s closure of the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.
Trump has told aides and counterparts that he reserves the right to resume attacks on Iran should Tehran fail to abide by the temporary accord, U.S. officials said.
It was understood that the potential deal would include an official declaration of the war’s end, with two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the U.S. would end its blockade of Iran’s ports, according to officials.
For its part, Iran signaled “narrowing differences” in negotiations with the U.S. after Pakistan’s army chief held more talks in Tehran, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told journalists in India that “there’s been some progress made” and “there may be news later today.”
Rubio repeated the U.S. stance that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must turn over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz must be open.
Iran state TV quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei as describing the draft as a “framework agreement” and adding: “We want this to include the main issues required for ending the imposed war and other issues of essential importance to us. Then, over a reasonable time span, between 30 to 60 days, details are discussed and ultimately a final agreement is reached.”
He said the Strait of Hormuz is among the topics discussed.
Iran’s official IRNA news agency quoted Baghaei as saying:
“Over the past week, the trend has been toward narrowing differences,” he said. “We will have to wait and see what happens over the next three or four days.”
Baghaei said nuclear issues are not part of the current negotiations, as Tehran first seeks to end the war before discussing its nuclear program that has long been at the heart of international tensions.
“Our focus at this stage is on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon,”
Baghaei said, adding that lifting sanctions on Tehran “has explicitly been included in the text and remains our fixed position.”
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the lead negotiator in historic face-to-face talks with the U.S. last month in Islamabad, said Iran has rebuilt its military assets and if Trump resumes attacks, the result would be “more crushing and more bitter” than at the start of the war.
As of Saturday night, it remained unclear exactly what President Trump and Iran had agreed to – or if they had agreed to much at all.
Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times that the memorandum of understanding Tehran had agreed to would stop the fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon; reopen the Strait of Hormuz without any tolls; lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iran; and release $25 billion in Iranian assets frozen overseas.
There was no immediate comment from Netanyahu’s office and whether a potential agreement would halt Israel’s ongoing clashes with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Axios then reported the pact would involve a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire, during which the Strait would be reopened and Iran be allowed to sell its oil. Further negotiations would follow on Tehran’s nuclear program, Axios said, citing a U.S. official.
By making an agreement, the president risks the perception of a strategic defeat for the U.S. Some of Trump’s most hawkish allies are urging him to continue the bombing campaign until all his stated objectives are met.
Mississippi Republican Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, wrote on X Saturday afternoon:
“We are at a moment that will define President Trump’s legacy.
“His instincts have been to finish the job he started in Iran, but he is being ill advised to pursue a deal that would not be worth the paper it is written on. Our commander-in-chief needs to allow America’s skilled armed forces to finish the destruction of Iran’s conventional military capabilities and reopen the strait.
“Further pursuit of an agreement with Iran’s Islamist regime risks a perception of weakness. We must finish what we started. It is past time for action.”
Wicker followed the post with another one.
“The rumored 60-day ceasefire – with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith – would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.) said late Saturday that he was “deeply concerned” about the reports of a potential agreement. It would be a “disastrous mistake” if an agreement resulted in Iran being able to enrich uranium, develop nuclear weapons, and have effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, he said.
In a post on X, Cruz reiterated his support for the United States’ initial attack on Iran and urged President Trump to “enforce the red lines he has repeatedly drawn.”
Early Sunday, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said in a social media post that Iran was “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran.”
Secretary of State Rubio, speaking at a news conference early Sunday in New Delhi, said “significant” but “not final” progress has been made.
Rubio said Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. He added that the idea that the president would agree to a deal that would put Iran in a stronger position on the nuclear issue is “absurd.”
President Trump then posted on Truth Social Sunday, 10:10 AM:
“One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration – THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact! The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the Nations of the historic Abraham Accords and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
House Speaker Mike Johnson said Sunday on Fox News that he is very confident any potential deal will stop Iran from having nuclear weapons.
“I talked with him [President Trump] late last night. He’s as resolute as he’s been from the beginning,” Johnson said.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says his country is “ready to assure the world” that it is not seeking nuclear weapons, according to state media.
IRNA quotes the president in a post on Telegram as saying: “Prior to the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s late Leader, we declared – and we reiterate now – that we are ready to assure the world we do not seek nuclear weapons.”
According to the news agency, the president adds that Iran “does not desire regional instability” and that it is “the Israeli regime…that seeks to destabilize the region.” But he said Iranian negotiators will not “compromise on the dignity and honour of the country.”
Trump on Truth Social, Sun., 2:16 PM:
“If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals! President DJT”
In Israel, there was widespread concern that the deal would ease the economic and military pressure on Tehran when a regime Israel considers an existential threat is at a weak point.
Gulf Arab states, meanwhile, were eager to avoid further attacks on their energy facilities and get their oil sales moving again, but were grappling with the prospect that a deal would leave Iran with an overt role managing the Strait and emboldened to use military threats to get its way in future disputes with its neighbors after the U.S. armada moves on.
Even in markets, which are cheering the reduced risk that fighting could further crimp energy supplies, analysts wanted details and whether a deal could leave the Strait more vulnerable to future disruptions.
“It feels like a breakthrough, but we’ve seen some of these points before and they always broke down once it got to competing interpretations of the details,” said Rory Johnston, founder of oil research firm Commodity Contest.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal, Sunday PM
“Is that it? The American people are left to wonder as the terms of President Trump’s emerging ‘memorandum of understanding ‘ with Iran leak to the press. While the U.S. can claim real achievements from 38 days of war, the job isn’t done and 47 days of cease-fire may deliver a strategic setback.
“The preliminary deal, as mooted in the press, is for both sides to end their blockades, and perhaps for the U.S. to sweeten the pot financially, while talks on nuclear issues and further sanctions relief continue for 60 days or more. A U.S. official says, but Iranian officials deny, that the regime gave assurances a final deal would include ‘disposal’ of its enriched uranium.
“The basic problem lies with ending U.S. pressure before dismantling the nuclear program. If the blockade ends and Iran can sell its oil, all that’s left to coerce it into nuclear concessions is the threat of renewed war.
“But Mr. Trump wasn’t willing to do that after Iran reneged on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and attacked U.S. forces and Gulf allies. How credible will the threat be 60 days closer to midterms, when it would trigger a new Iranian blockade of Hormuz? A pledge not to build a nuclear weapon means nothing because the regime has always said that while doing the opposite.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Mr. Trump agrees that a final deal must dismantle Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and remove its enriched uranium from the country. U.S. officials have also been briefing that all the ‘nuclear dust’ must go, but would they retain the leverage to insist on that?
“Some press reports have the U.S. settling for Iranian assurances not to use underground nuclear facilities and for downblending – not removal – of only the 60% enriched uranium. This would leave Iran with large quantities of 5% and 20% enriched uranium, which can easily be enhanced to weapons grade. With the potential enrichment site beneath Pickaxe Mountain also intact, Iran would remain a nuclear danger. This would require the strictest inspections, which again raises the leverage question.
“The U.S. and Iran also have yet to agree on how long Iran would be banned from enriching uranium. The question may be academic because the regime only has to wait out the Trump Administration to gain a freer hand. Iran’s history is to drag out negotiations, and this preliminary deal is no doubt part of that strategy.
“Reopening the Strait will reduce oil prices, but in the President’s reluctance to do so by force, he has signaled that Iran holds the trump card. Even if successful, the deal would leave that card intact and looming.
“Iran insists that no deal will restore the Strait to its status quo ante. It could allow the passage of a prewar number of vessels, state media says, but on Iranian terms and under its control. Recall that tanker traffic decreased after Iran had promised a gradual reopening with the April 7 cease-fire.
“This is reason enough not to give Iran sanctions relief up front. U.S. officials say relief will be tied to performance, and they will need to hold to that to get a decent final deal.
“Meanwhile, don’t ask about Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxies, two goals of the war. While both have been damaged, formal limits or restrictions have been pushed off to ‘regional discussions.’ The Israelis say they will retain freedom of action to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon under the deal, though Iranian sources deny it. Iran wants its terror proxy to be able to carry out a war of attrition against Israel without consequence….
“Mr. Trump on Sunday pushed back against critics of the deal, saying ‘I don’t make bad deals.’ But it’s fair to wonder if he isn’t feeling the growing pressure at home of rising gasoline prices and bond yields as midterm elections get closer. That’s no doubt partly behind his desire to reopen the Strait even on Iran’s terms.
“We’d add that a bad deal would leave him worse off politically, even if gas prices fall. Even a half victory by Iran would hurt America’s standing – and Mr. Trump’s.
“Iran’s regime went into this war facing domestic political and economic crises. War has made these worse. Saving such a regime now with an economic bailout would be the real betrayal – of the U.S. interest even more than the Iranian people.”
Trump on Truth Social, Mon., 6:10 AM:
“I laugh at all of the Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal I am making with Iran, things that haven’t even been negotiated yet, weak and ineffective people like failed Senator Thom Tillis (Soon out of office!), Bill Cassidy, who just suffered a massive Primary loss, really bad Congressman Thomas Massie, a major sleazebag who lost in a landslide to a great American Patriot (Endorsed by ‘TRUMP’) after showing tremendous disloyalty to his Party (and Country!), and almost all Dumocrats, people that have totally lost their way, constantly supporting bad policy and even worse candidates, but are constantly critical of each and every fantastic win I have. These people should go home and rest, they do nothing but create division and loss. In other words, they are losers! The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal. It will be the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster negotiated by the failed Obama Administration, which was a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran. No, I don’t do deals like that! President DJT”
Trump on Truth Social, Mon., 8:23 AM:
“Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all – Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before – And nobody wants that! During my discussions on Saturday with…[Trump then names all the Middle Eastern leaders he had a call with]…I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords… It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be…”
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said the draft deal could still collapse because the U.S. is blocking several clauses, including Tehran’s demand that its assets be unfrozen.
Secretary of State Rubio said Monday from New Delhi it takes the Iranian system a bit of time to respond to the U.S. He added he was “very confident” that if an agreement were to be reached, it would be a good one, and that a deal is Trump’s preference rather than alternatives for addressing the Iranian threat.
President Trump on Truth Social, Mon. 5:45 PM:
“The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Tensions then rose later Monday as the U.S. sank two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships attempting to lay mines in the Strait. Iran responded by launching surface-to-air missiles at U.S. planes, prompting American attacks on missile launchers near Bandar Abbas, a U.S. official said.
“U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” said Col. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the command.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday signaled that his country’s fight with Hezbollah would intensify.
“We are at war with Hezbollah,” Netanyahu said in a video on social media.
Despite an American-brokered cease-fire that took effect in April, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to clash, with each side accusing the other of violating the truce. The fighting has recently escalated.
In Netanyahu’s video, released Monday night, he said that Israeli forces had in recent weeks killed more than 600 Hezbollah militants and indicated that the military would intensify the pressure.
“But we are not removing our foot from the pedal,” the prime minister said. “On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more.”
Dozens of people were then killed in an intensive wave of Israeli strikes across southern and eastern Lebanon on Tuesday.
At least 31 were killed in the latest attacks, including several children, Lebanon’s health ministry said.
The Israeli military (IDF) said it hit more than 100 Hezbollah infrastructure sites and fighters in what was one of the heaviest nights of bombardment since the ceasefire began.
Netanyahu said “the IDF is operating with large forces on the ground and seizing dominant terrain,” adding that they were “fortifying the security zone” to protect communities in northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks.
Iran signaled the strikes on Monday wouldn’t derail negotiations. Tehran’s top negotiator, Ghalibaf, remained in Qatar on Tuesday for talks after arriving a day earlier. The officials said Iran delayed announcing that several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been killed in the strike to keep the talks on track.
Ghalibaf had arrived in the Gulf country a day earlier to address sticking points, including the frozen Iranian funds and details about reopening the Strait, the officials said. Ghalibaf returned to Tehran later Tuesday, Iranian state media reported.
Iran’s continued resistance to dismantling its nuclear program has been one of the central points of contention in talks.
But in a further sign that Iran wants to keep talking, President Masaoud Pezeshkian discussed efforts to reach a memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington in a phone call Tuesday with Abdel Al Sisi, president of Egypt, one of the mediating countries.
Mediators expressed concern that hard-line elements in Iran are trying to sabotage any peace agreement by carrying out covert operations against maritime traffic.
A tanker was hit by an explosion in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, according to the Royal Navy-affiliated UK Maritime Trade Operations, in an area where Iran has frequently attacked commercial ships.
Iranian hard-liners reiterated their criticism of diplomacy. Majid Moosve, the Revolutionary Guard commander in charge of Iran’s drone and missile program, said the “negotiation with the enemy is pure loss.”
But an Iranian government spokeswoman signaled on Tuesday diplomacy would likely continue.
Then Wednesday, Iranian state media announced the initial details of the “Memorandum of Understanding” for the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Per Iran:
U.S. Military forces will withdraw from the vicinity of Iran; the U.S. Navy will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has committed to restoring the number of commercial transit ships through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within 1 month; and management and routing of ship traffic through the Strait will be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman.
Nothing on the nuclear program.
But oil prices dropped on this supposed news.
The White House followed with a statement calling the unofficial draft of the interim peace deal as reported by state television a “complete fabrication” and “not true.”
And then President Trump, taking questions from reporters at a Cabinet meeting, said no one nation would control Hormuz.
Trump asserted Iran is “negotiating on fumes” and insisted that November’s midterm elections won’t make him rush into a deal to end the nearly three-month-old conflict that’s spurred unease across the global economy.
Trump dismissed the idea that the upcoming elections would shape his Iran strategy.
“They thought they were gonna outwait me. You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms,’” Trump said. “I don’t care about the midterms.”
And the president went after ally Oman, threatening to “blow it up” if it did not “behave just like everybody else” in regards to the control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tuesday he had said: “The Strait is going to be open to everybody. Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it. But nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation that we have.”
Overnight Wednesday, the U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week and Kuwait said it responded to missile and drone threats, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire and the challenge of forging a peace accord that would restore global energy flows.
U.S. forces shot down four Iranian drones fired at a commercial ship and hit a launch unit near the Strait, according to a U.S. official, who said the attacks were defensive and the ceasefire remains intact. Iran targeted the U.S. base from which the strikes came, state-run Press TV reported in a post on X. Kuwait said “any explosions that may be heard are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets.”
Thursday, according to report, U.S. and Iranian negotiators had reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire in the 3-month-old war by 60 days and launch talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
But President Trump still had to sign off on the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOA), and it wasn’t clear if Iran’s supreme leader had signed off.
Details of the tentative agreement were first reported by Axios, which said Trump has asked for “a couple of days” to think about the deal.
The MOA apparently states that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unrestricted,” Axios reported. Iran would have to remove all mines from the Strait within 30 days.
Tensions nonetheless deepened further as Israel conducted an airstrike on a southern suburb of Beirut, and other strikes in the southern coastal city of Tyre, killing at least 14.
Thursday evening, Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran still need to work out several sticking points before an agreement can be reached, telling the BBC it was too early to say “when or if” the two sides would finalize an agreement.
The president said nothing all Thursday, then Friday morning at 10:51, he posted this:
“Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of ‘heading home!’ Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as ‘Nuclear Dust,’ which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter
! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
The above reads like it was written by a ninth grader who didn’t study for his final exam and suddenly finds himself with a question that he wasn’t prepared for, but has to come up with something.
—Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal
“Saudi Arabia’s cities rely heavily on massive desalination complexes. The capital, Riyadh, is particularly exposed, as most of its water comes through pipelines from large desalination plants on the Gulf. If those facilities were taken out of commission, much of Riyadh’s population would likely have to be evacuated within days.
“Attacks on desalination facilities whose primary purpose is to provide drinking water to civilians constitute one of the most heinous imaginable war crimes. As attacks on desalination plants in Kuwait and Bahrain have demonstrated during the current war, that isn’t a problem for the self-proclaimed religious zealots of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Saudis have taken note.
“The threat to Gulf desalination facilities has shaken the coalition that supported the war and may loom larger in peace diplomacy than Iran’s threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration faces a difficult choice. Does it reassure the Gulf Arabs by deterring Iranian attacks on their water supply via threats of massive retaliation, or does it seek a quick end to the war at the price of more-favorable conditions for Iran?
“Mr. Trump’s demand that a group of Arab countries plus Turkey and Pakistan should simultaneously sign on to the Abraham Accords likely reflects the administration’s quest for a bright and shiny diplomatic win to offset compromises with Iran. At a time when memories of the Gaza war and the absence of progress on Palestinian issues have made Israel even more unpopular globally and among Muslims than usual, that would be a stiff price for the Saudis to pay.
“The issue of water security for the Gulf populations will grow. Unless the U.S. is prepared to accept a long-term Iranian hegemony over the Gulf states as well as the Strait of Hormuz, it will need to find an effective deterrent to Iranian attacks on vital infrastructure. The choice may come down to providing a credible nuclear shield for our Gulf allies or abandoning them to the tender mercies of the Islamic Republic.”
—
Wall Street and the Economy
We had key inflation data this week, the April personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, and the numbers were essentially in line with expectations…0.4% on headline (vs. consensus for 0.5%), but 3.8% year-over-year; 0.2% ex-food and energy, but 3.3% vs a year ago, the Y/Y figures as forecast. None of this is good news, the Fed’s target for core being 2%.
Separately, personal income was unchanged for the month when a gain of 0.4% was expected, while consumption, up 0.5%, was in line.
A first look at manufacturing for the month of May, the Chicago PMI….
On the housing front, April new home sales were far less than forecast, a 622,000 annualized rate, and the March S&P Case-Shiller home price index rose just 0.8% year-over-year, falling short of expectations and the weakest annual increase since July 2023, adding to evidence of a cooling housing market.
For the tenth straight month, inflation outpaced home price growth, continuing to erode inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
Chicago led annual price gains with a 6.1% increase, followed by New York at 4.0% and Cleveland 3.0%. On the downside, Seattle recorded the steepest annual decline at -2.5%, followed by Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%).
And we had a second look at first-quarter GDP, revised down to 1.6% from the prior 2.0% estimate.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth fell to 3.8%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up to 6.53%, but this should be a short-term peak, are bond yields have been falling.
Next week, we get a key jobs report for May, as well as data on the manufacturing and service sectors.
Europe and Asia
Nothing of note from Europe and China this week. But next week we get key PMI data for May from Europe and Asia, as well as a slew of other ‘stuff’ from the eurozone.
In Japan, April retail sales were up a better than expected 1.3% over March. The April unemployment rate was just 2.5%.
Street Bytes
—Stock markets seem convinced a peace deal (extended ceasefire) will be reached; that and continued AI mania leading to record gains.
All three major indices hit new records, including today. The Dow Jones up 0.9% on the week to 51032, the S&P 500 1.4% and Nasdaq 2.4%.
Overseas, markets in Japan and South Korea also hit fresh records today as Asian shares advanced on the expectations the U.S. and Iran will extend the ceasefire.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.74% 2-yr. 4.01% 10-yr. 4.45% 30-yr. 4.99%
As oil goes, so go bonds…Oil up, bond yields up. Oil down, yields’ down. And yields fell this week.
—BP removed its chairman, Albert Manifold, after the oil major’s board was told that he was verbally abusive and bullying toward employees, and had mishandled company information, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The London-based company said Tuesday that its board had unanimously decided that Manifold should no longer serve as chair, and that he would depart immediately.
“The board has been surprised and disappointed to learn of governance oversight and conduct issues it deems unacceptable and has taken decisive action,” said Amanda Blanc, the company’s senior independent director.
Concerns about Manifold’s abusive behavior relate to conduct toward both junior and senior employees, the people familiar with the matter said.
“I was removed without warning and without explanation,” Manifold said. “I dispute entirely the characterization of my conduct and I will not allow a false narrative to go unchallenged.”
Manifold’s abrupt departure adds to the leadership turmoil in recent years that has resulted in three chief executives and three chairmen since 2023.
–The market has been all about oil prices (since Feb. 28) and AI, and in the latter, you have Micron Technology, Inc., the semiconductor company that manufactures memory and computer data storage products, along the lines of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (both out of South Korea).
Micron crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization line on Tuesday, and Wednesday morning the shares kept soaring to $956, up from $92.20 at the lows on May 30 of last year. One year…$92 to $950.
Micron is investing $200 billion to expand manufacturing, including the nation’s largest semiconductor factory, breaking ground on the big factory near Syracuse, N.Y.
Tuesday’s gain of 19% ($751 to $895) was its largest one-day gain since Nov. 2011, adding the equivalent in market cap of a Charles Schwab, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
One analyst at UBS raised his price target from $535 to $1,625.
Demand for memory chips has tightened supply, but companies were wary of adding capacity out of concerns that a slowdown would come.
–Meanwhile, chip king Nvidia unveiled plans to spend $150 billion annually with Taiwanese suppliers, brushing aside concerns about the vulnerability of Taiwan in the chip supply chain.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the huge spending plan at an event in Taipei to celebrate the launch of a new campus in Taiwan on Wednesday.
Huang noted that Nvidia is already spending around $100 billion a year annually in the country, the home of its most important supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. He didn’t give a time frame for the increased investment.
Nvidia’s vote of confidence is important amid persistent concerns that Beijing will make a military move against Taiwan, which it considers part of China.
“Taiwan is the epicenter of the AI revolution,” Huang told a crowd of around 1,000 employees and key officials. “This is where the chips come, packaging comes, this is where the systems are made, this is where AI supercomputers were created. The number of partners we work with here in Taiwan, incredible.”
—Dell boosted its annual revenue and profit expectations on Thursday, showing data center expansion by clients is fueling demand for its AI-optimized servers that are powered by Nvidia’s powerful chips.
Shares of the company, which counts CoreWeave, Honeywell and Samsung Electronics as its customers, rose around 40% in extended trading. [30% in trading Friday.]
U.S. tech giants including Alphabet and Amazon plan to spend over $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year, which would drive up demand for server and data center equipment from suppliers such as Dell.
These AI servers are critical for powering services such as ChatGPT, as they are equipped with advanced memory chips to store data and instructions, providing the immense computing power required for such applications.
Dell said it now expects AI server revenue of roughly $60 billion for fiscal 2027, up from its prior expectations of $50 billion.
It raised its annual revenue forecast to between $165 billion and $169 billion, a sharp increase from its previous forecast of $138 billion to $142 billion.
The company also lifted its annual adjusted earnings per share forecast to $17.90 from the prior view of $12.90.
Dell’s revenue rose 88% to $43.84 billion in the first quarter, handily beating estimates of $35.43 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $4.86 beat consensus of $2.94.
The strong results and forecast show that Dell is managing the memory chip crisis well by implementing price increases and adjusting the company’s supply chain amid intense competition.
For good reason, the stock is soaring, up like 250% year-to-date!
But Dell also received a new five-year $9.7 billion contract with the U.S. military, which follows the disclosure of large purchases by President Trump’s money managers of Dell stock back in February, with Trump, speaking to steelworkers in Georgia, praising the company and telling the crowd to “go out and buy a Dell computer.”
To some, it’s an issue.
—Pope Leo XIV makes “Street Bytes” for the first time, normally consigned, like all popes, to Random Musings, the editor typed with a smile.
Monday, Leo set out a sweeping vision for corporate executives, politicians and individuals who will shape and be shaped by the future of artificial intelligence, warning leaders to safeguard humanity from A.I.’s most disruptive effects.
Leo’s declaration, in the form of a papal encyclical, an open letter to “all people of good will” that ran to roughly 42,300 words in its English version, outlined his desire to protect human dignity and agency in an age in which technology threatens to replace humans in many professional and social roles. He presented it alongside Christopher Olah, a co-founder of Anthropic, in a symbolic gesture of dialogue between leaders of the spiritual and technological worlds.
Leo emphasized that “technology should not be considered, in itself, as a force antagonistic to humanity.” He wrote that “the pursuit of greater profits cannot justify choices that systematically sacrifice jobs.”
Among other things, Leo called for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of AI; protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened; education to help students think critically about the technology; action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by AI; and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decision regarding the use of weapons.
Above all, Leo stressed that we must retain a fundamental social role for all human beings. “A society that guarantees employment to only a small fraction of the population, despite having a high level of technical development, risks exposing many to forced inactivity, a lack of responsibility and the absence of daily tasks and stimuli, resulting in human and cultural impoverishment,” he said.
“This creates a paradox of material progress and anthropological regression that undermines the foundations of a just and stable social peace,” he added.
Work, Leo wrote, is more than a way of earning income, but “a requirement of the human condition, a normal path toward maturity, development and personal fulfillment.” He called for “the protection of employment opportunities and the irreplaceable role of the individual.”
“New collaborative efforts are needed among political leaders, labor organizations, the business world and the scientific community in order to develop rapidly adequate shared regulations and protections, including at the international level,” he wrote.
The encyclical also called for imposing the “most rigorous ethical constraints” on weapons developed using artificial intelligence, continuing Leo’s – and the Vatican’s – longstanding opposition to war.
“The growing ease with which autonomous weapons systems can be deployed makes war more ‘feasible’ and less subject to human control,” Leo wrote. That, he added, contradicted “the principle that armed force should be used only as a last resort in cases of legitimate self-defense.”
On the issue of protecting children:
“Psychological and psychiatric literature has documented with growing insistence how early and unsupervised exposure to digital devices and social media can negatively impact sleep, attention span, control of emotions and relationships, especially during the most vulnerable stages of life, at times with tragic consequences,” he wrote.
So I put all of this in Street Bytes because the Pope’s words can have an impact on the technology industry.
Brian Patrick Green, director of technology ethics at Santa Clara University told the New York Times that some tech leaders “will have to take it seriously in a sense,” partly because it provides them with “a moral imperative.”
Then again, a fair number of the tech leaders, especially on the AI side these days, strike me as a-holes. Out for nothing more than money, which has been a conflict for the Catholic Church for centuries, in its purest form, as in I always look at the good of institutions such as Catholic Charities. Personally, I built a church on the island of Yap in Micronesia through the Jesuit Mission Bureau in New York.
Alas, Prof. Noreen Herzfelt, director of a program on technology and ethics at St. John’s School of Theology and Seminary in Collegeville, Minn., offered: “I don’t think the ‘tech bros’ in Silicon Valley will listen that much.”
Prof. Herzfeld sees it more “as a reference for priests and bishops and particularly for those of us who are educating seminarians or young people.” [Motoko Rich, Elisabetta Povoledo / New York Times]
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
5/28…114 percent of 2025 levels
5/27…95
5/26…88
5/25…115
5/24…101
5/23…79
5/22…101
5/21…118
—SpaceX completed a largely successful test flight of its next-generation Starship rocket last Friday night, deploying a clutch of mock satellites and executing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean in a high-stakes debut of the newly upgraded vehicle as Elon Musk’s company prepares to go public.
The latest uncrewed launch of Starship – designed to enable more frequent Starlink satellite launches and to send future NASA missions to the moon – achieved a key milestone for the vehicle following months of testing delays. The outcome should boost investor confidence ahead of the IPO offering in June, expected to be the largest in history.
–Speaking of Starlink, American Airlines is the latest airline to tap it to provide speedy internet service in the skies.
American said Tuesday it plans to install the service on more than 500 single-aisle Airbus planes starting early next year – a significant portion of its fleet.
Starlink has become a must-have in-fight amenity for passengers in recent years, and Starlink has signed up customers including United Airlines, Southwest, and Alaska Air.
—Tesla saw sales in Europe grow strongly in April; a sign the EV maker continues to regain momentum in the region after a slump that stretched more than a year.
New-car registrations for Tesla models, a reflection of sales, jumped 46.5% from the year prior last month to 10,654 units across the European Union, the U.K., Iceland, Norway and Sweden, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, an industry body also known as ACEA. In the EU alone, sales grew over 67% from a year earlier to 9,169 vehicles.
April marked the third consecutive month of growth after an improvement of over 84% in March and nearly 12% in February – the first month of higher new-car registrations for the group since December 2024.
Chinese auto giant BYD’s sales in the region have surged every month since ACEA began including the company in its data last summer, more than doubling last month to 27,008 units, according to ACEA data. China’s Leapmotor logged a more than fivefold increase in European sales to 8,745 vehicles.
The European Union has a huge issue with China taking over the auto sector and other parts of the economy and is urgently planning to fight back.
—A rocket built by the Jeff Bezos-owned space company Blue Origin blew up on the launchpad in Florida on Thursday night.
The explosion occurred at about 9 p.m. during a test being conducted in advance of an upcoming launch.
“We experienced an anomaly during today’s hotfire test,” Bue Origin reported on social media. “All personnel have been accounted for.”
The test was to fire the seven engines in the booster stage, while keeping the rocket firmly held down on the launchpad. Flames began rising up the sides of the rocket and a massive explosion enveloped the launchpad.
The fireball badly damaged the launchpad and surrounding equipment at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. It is the only launchpad that Blue Origin has for its 322-foot-tall New Glenn rocket, which is named after John Glenn, and repairs will most likely take months, at the least.
The rocket had been set to carry 48 satellites for Amazon’s internet constellation, Leo, an acronym for “low-Earth orbit.” Leo is a competitor to SpaceX’s Starlink network. The Amazon satellites were not on board.
Jeff Bezos wrote on social media: “Very rough day, but we’ll rebuild whatever needs rebuilding and get back to flying. It’s worth it.”
Elon Musk expressed sympathy on X: “Sorry to see this, I hope you recover quickly.”
We’ll learn over the coming weeks, but the Blue Origin explosion could have serious implications for NASA’s plans, as New Glenn is to be a major player in the moon landing and the building of a permanent base, having received a contract to deliver lunar landers and cargo.
—Anthropic officially passed OpenAI as the world’s highest-flying A.I. start-up on Thursday, as the company said it had raised $65 billion in financing that values it at $900 billion before the inclusion of the new capital, a deal that puts it ahead of OpenAI’s last valuation of $730 billion.
—Best Buy forecast second-quarter sales above Wall Street estimates and beat first-quarter earnings expectations on steady smartphone and gaming console demand as well as growth in its ads and marketplace channels.
Shares of the electronics retailer rose nearly 10%.
CEO Corrie Barry is set to step down at the end of October and will be succeeded by Jason Bonfig, a company veteran who is expected to focus on expanding its higher-margin advertising and marketplace businesses.
Best Buy has been doubling down on offerings such as Geek Squad support (love these guys) and paid memberships.
Comparable sales rose 2% in the quarter ended May 3, rebounding from a 0.7% drop a year earlier and above expectations.
Shoppers remain selective about big-ticket purchases amid anxiety over rising fuel costs but are still willing to spend on higher-priced products prompted by replacement needs or new technology.
—Dick’s Sporting Goods narrowly cleared the bar for the first quarter but a cut in its full-year earnings outlook and cautious guidance sent shares sliding Wednesday.
Dick’s posted adjusted earnings of $2.90 a share, basically in line with the Street’s expectations. Sales climbed to $5.16 billion from $3.18 billion last year and edged past the $5.07 billion analysts’ forecast.
But guidance was mixed. Although the company raised the low end of its full-year comparable sales outlook for both the Dick’s and Foot Locker franchises, Dick’s now sees adjusted earnings of $13.50 to $14.50 a share, below analysts’ calls for $14.30 at the midpoint of the range.
Dick’s also forecast net sales of $22.1 billion to $22.4 billion, below calls for $22.3 billion at the midpoint.
—Dollar Tree shares soared after the discount retailer reported first quarter results that exceeded forecasts and raised its full-year earnings outlook.
The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.74, beating analysts’ consensus of $1.55 by $0.19. Revenue reached $4.97 billion, matching estimates and representing a 7.2% increase year-over-year. Comparable net sales grew a solid 3.5%, driven by a 4.5% increase in the average ticket, partially offset by a 1.0% decline in traffic.
DLTR raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $6.70 to $7.10, with a midpoint of $6.90 that exceeds the analyst consensus of $6.67. The company maintained its revenue outlook of $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, with the midpoint slightly below forecasts.
—Ferrari’s first-ever electric car, the Ferrari Luce, was panned by critics. The spacious, glass-roofed design has been ridiculed for its 550,000 euros ($640,000) price tag and its similarities to other, much cheaper, electric vehicles, including the mass-market Nissan Leaf.
“Oh boy, how ugly she is,” Luc Poirier, a Montreal-based real estate entrepreneur who owns more than 40 Ferraris, said when asked about the model. “How (do you) justify a 400,000 to 500,000 price for this? Unbelievable.”
The company’s share price fell 8% on Tuesday.
But by week’s end, the CEO, Benedetto Vigna, said orders are already rolling in, despite all the criticism. “Some are existing clients and others are new.”
—New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) declared a state of emergency as New Jersey continues to reel from an early spring freeze that devasted our farm industry.
Here were the temperatures for my town of Summit, N.J., that has some large farms just 10-15 minutes away.
From April 13-17, we had daily highs of 81-90 degrees. But then from April 19-22, our overnight lows were 25-43.
The heat wave, and then cold snap struck crops precisely at a critical developmental stage – resulting in severe injury to blossoms and newly forming fruit.
The governor’s office said damage exceeded 30 percent in many parts of New Jersey (aka ‘The Garden State’), with some farmers anticipating “100 percent losses” for certain crops, including peaches, cherries, pears, grapes, plums, strawberries, blueberries, blackberries and apples.
Early estimates suggest at least $300 million in total crop losses for growers and farmers.
For those not from the region, my state has some awesome fruit, and everyone waits for the peaches and strawberries to begin to show up at the farmer’s markets.
—Walt Disney topped the holiday weekend domestic box office draw with Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu hauling in more than $100 million over the four-day weekend, but even that won’t touch last year’s blockbuster totals.
The latest Star Wars adventure was part of an estimated $222 million in domestic weekend box office sales for the industry through Monday, according to Comscore.
The film was expected to sell another $63 million internationally, for a $163 million global opening weekend, Comscore said.
But ticket sales for Mandalorian and Grogu and this weekend’s other movies are expected to fall about 33% short of last year’s record, when Lilo & Stitch and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning delivered the biggest-ever domestic Memorial Day weekend at the movies.
Memorial Day 2025 cleared more than $330 million in domestic ticket sales, 55% of which came from Lilo & Stitch.
Although Mandalorian and Grogu’s early buzz has been mixed and opening weekend expectations are on the softer side, audiences looking for a good movie often embrace films underestimated by critics and analysts, says Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian.
This year, Hollywood has generated an estimated $3.46 billion in domestic ticket sales through Monday, up 12.5% compared with the same point in 2025, according to Comscore.
Obsession did well, $33.3 million domestically in its second weekend, and Lionsgate’s Michael sold another $26.9 million, and is expected to surpass $321.1 million in domestic box office sales through Monday. It has grossed an estimated $468.1 million internationally, bringing its global gross to $788.0 million worldwide, according to studio estimates.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 is up to $327 million globally.
Next week we have Sony Pictures’ Masters of the Universe and Paramount’s Scary Movie both opening June 5, followed by Universal’s Steven Spielberg-directed Disclosure Day June 12. [That’s the one I’d like to see…catch the trailer on YouTube.]
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Sunday, Kyiv came under a massive Russian drone and missile barrage that included an Oreshnik ballistic missile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on Telegram. The Oreshnik is capable of carrying nuclear weapons or conventional warheads.
It marked the third time the missile, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said streaks at 10 times the speed of sound and is capable of destroying underground bunkers “three, four or more floors down,” has been used in Ukraine.
The combined attack on the Kyiv region included 600 strike drone and 90 air, sea and ground-launched missiles, according to Ukraine’s Air Force. It said Ukrainian air defenses destroyed and jammed 549 drones and 55 missiles, and around 19 missiles failed to reach targets. But that means a lot of drones and missiles got through.
At least four people were killed and nearly 60 others injured. Forty locations across several districts of Kyiv were hit. One resident told the BBC: “It was a terrible night, and there had never been anything like it in the entire war.
“I am very sorry that I have to say goodbye to Kyiv now, I am not staying there anymore, there is no possibility. My job is gone, everything is gone, everything has burned down.”
Moscow framed the attack as retaliation for the recent Ukrainian drone attack on a college in Russia-occupied Luhansk region that killed 21 students. As noted earlier, Ukraine claimed it struck a major drone factory operated by Russia’s elite Rubicon drone military unit in Starobilsk.
Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Secretary of State Rubio to advise him to evacuate U.S. citizens and diplomats from Kyiv, as the Kremlin plans to continue heavy strikes on the capital, according to a statement published by the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Lavrov called his U.S. counterpart at the request of President Putin to tell him that Russia is launching systematic and consistent strikes against facilities in Kyiv as well as against the relevant “decision-making centers,” according to the statement.
—Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other’s energy infrastructure, hitting oil facilities in a key Russian Black Sea port as well as gas and oil assets in two Ukrainian regions.
Kyiv also claimed an attack on a major petrochemical facility deep into Russian territory (900 miles from Moscow), while Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz said its oil and gas facilities in the country’s east had been targeted by Russian strikes for more than 24 hours, causing serious damage.
—A senior Ukrainian commander, Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, told Reuters in an interview that Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, predicting a “turning point” was imminent after more than four years of war.
Russia’s grinding gains have slowed this year, and Ukrainian troops are increasing pressure on the battlefield to try to push them back.
Gen. Biletsky, who commands Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, one of the most respected fighting forces, said he believes Russia’s army is exhausted and incapable of making major breakthroughs. If Ukraine’s military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it does not yet occupy, he said.
Russia’s advances have been complicated by a decision by billionaire Elon Musk to deny Moscow’s forces access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service. Kyiv has meanwhile stepped up medium-range drone attacks on Russian air defenses and logistics, helping more long-range strikes get through to hit oil and military facilities in Russia.
—Friday, a Russian attack drone hit an apartment building in eastern Romania early in the morning, according to the authorities, drawing swift and sharp condemnation from NATO and the European Union.
The episode comes amid heightened fears that Russia might seek to expand the war beyond Ukraine to target a member of the NATO alliance.
Romania’s Foreign Ministry said the drone had been involved in an overnight assault on Ukraine but had crashed into an apartment building in Galati, Romania, sparking a fire that injured two people.
China: U.S. legislators approved an arms package for Taiwan in January that could be worth up to $14 billion, but it has yet to receive sign off by the White House.
At the U.S.-China summit, Beijing shared its displeasure with the weapons sales, and speaking to reporters after, President Trump dismissed a decades-long U.S. agreement to not consult with Beijing on such matters. Trump also said he had yet to decide on future packages, describing the weapons deals as a “very good negotiating chip.”
It’s unclear to what extent Trump is looking to leverage the Taiwan sales in his bid for better relations with Xi, but his statements and pressure from dwindling stocks of weapons used in the Middle East have raised concerns about Washington’s commitment to the self-governing island.
The U.S., among other weapons systems, has depleted much of its inventory of advanced missile-defense systems that could be used by joint forces in a conflict over Taiwan, including high-end interceptors and precision munitions. U.S. defense officials in April confirmed that munitions and radars on the Korean Peninsula are being sent from the region to the Middle East.
Trump’s ambiguous approach on Taiwan policy has rattled lawmakers since the summit, including Republican China hawks.
On a different matter, President Xi had to deal with one of the deadliest Chinese mining disasters in years, with at least 82 people killed last Friday night.
Xi issued an immediate statement on the urgent need to “treat the injured, organize search and rescue operations scientifically, and properly handle the aftermath,” the agency, Xinhua, reported. He also called for an investigation into the explosion, which happened on Friday night, and emphasized the need to “hold those responsible to account, according to the law.”
This was unusual in that the Chinese government typically holds back details of accidents while it gathers information and prepares to issue a response.
North Korea: Pyongyang fired multiple projectiles including short-range ballistic missiles on Tuesday, South Korea’s military said, the latest in a series of weapons tests by the North this year.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 43% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 55% disapprove (May 29).
—It is very early to be talking about 2028, but a kind of fascinating Emerson College survey has Sec. of State Rubio nearly even with Vice President Vance in a poll, with support for Rubio climbing 15% since February, placing him one point behind Vance, 36% to 35% among likely Republican primary voters, Vance down from the 52% he received in August 2025 and February polls.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were tied for third with 5%. [For new readers, I wrote in Haley’s name in 2024 that November.]
But on the Democratic side, Pete Buttigieg has overtaken California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Buttigieg at 18%, Newsom down to 16% from 25% in August.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is third at 11% backing from likely Democratic primary voters.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former VP Kamala Harris are tied at 10% apiece.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is at 9%.
—In a closely watched Republican primary Tuesday, Texas attorney general Ken Paxton whipped four-term Senator John Cornyn, 64% to 36%, Paxton having received President Trump’s endorsement.
The deeply-flawed Paxton now squares off in November against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who otherwise wouldn’t have had much of a chance against Cornyn.
Afterwards, the well-liked Cornyn (particularly inside the Republican Senate caucus) warned the Paxton win will reverberate well beyond his fight with Talarico and would set back Republicans down the ticket. Plus the GOP will need to spend big to help Paxton get across the finish line, funds that could be spent on other key Senate races.
—The South Carolina Senate abruptly adjourned on Tuesday without taking up a new congressional map that aimed to eliminate the state’s lone majority Black district and cement an entirely Republican delegation.
By refusing to act, lawmakers defied pressure from President Trump and national conservatives to wade into the country’s redistricting wars before the November elections.
A failed effort to stop debate Tuesday afternoon signaled that with thousands of votes already cast on the first day of early voting, there was no longer enough support among Republicans to push through new district lines before the state’s June 9 primary. Instead, the State Senate agreed to adjourn, effectively punting votes on a new map until after the primary.
The vote ensures that for now, South Carolina will remain among the outliers in the South. Other Republican-led states have raced to respond to the Supreme Court’s weakening of the Voting Rights Act by diluting districts where a majority of Black voters have repeatedly elected Democrats.
The district in question has repeatedly stood behind Rep. James Clyburn, a Black Democrat. Clyburn, 85, is seeking an 18th term in Congress and remains a powerfully political force.
South Carolina’s move came hours after a federal court blocked Alabama from using a map designed to give Republicans an edge in six of seven congressional districts in the state. That victory for Democrats may be fleeting, as Republicans in the state promised to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, which they then did.
The unanimous three-judge panel (two of whom were appointed by President Trump) ruled that Alabama could not use its map because the panel had years ago determined it “represents an intentional effort to crack the Black population in Alabama.”
The judicial panel told the state for now to use the map that was in effect for the last election. Under that map, the state sent five White Republicans and two Black Democrats to Congress.
But the judges also left the Republican-run legislature the opportunity to draw the state’s congressional map yet again.
–Last Friday, the Trump administration announced that most green-card applicants will need to go abroad to apply for permanent residency at an American consulate, rather than filing from within the U.S. as they do now.
Under the new policy, most foreigners – from tech workers to spouses of U.S. citizens – would need to prove they have “extraordinary circumstances” to apply for permanent residency within the U.S., or else risk being denied. Most would need to go abroad to apply at a U.S. consulate, where they risk losing whatever legal status they held in the U.S. and being unable to return.
The change marks a shift in how the U.S. immigration system has functioned for decades and will affect immigrants in the country illegally as well as foreign professionals sponsored by U.S. companies.
The new approach would particularly affect the millions of immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally, but gain legal status either by marrying a U.S. citizen or having U.S. citizen children sponsor them once the children turn 21. If an immigrant without legal status leaves the country, they could face anywhere from a three-year to a lifetime ban on returning.
At the start of his second term, President Trump attempted to close what he views as this loophole by ending birthright citizenship altogether, a legal move the Supreme Court is set to rule on within the next month.
“The main policy impetus for the administration appears to be to have a remedy in case the birthright-citizenship case doesn’t go the way they prefer,” said Leon Fresco, a former Justice Department immigration official under the Obama administration.
—Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the upcoming Alberta referendum on separation from Canada a “dangerous bluff,” comparing it to the Brexit vote that saw the UK leave the European Union.
Carney, who led the Bank of England during Brexit, said that 10 years on from the referendum the UK was “trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having.”
He also cautioned against voting in favor of a separation vote as a way to strengthen Alberta’s negotiating position within Ottawa, saying it may bring unintended consequences.
Albertans will vote Oct. 19 on whether to remain part of Canada or hold a binding vote on separation at a later day.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Carney said he will be campaigning for Canadian unity in the coming months.
Supporters of Alberta independence believe that the oil-rich province has long been overlooked by decision-makers in Ottawa, the national capital, and that federal environmental policies have hindered its ability to build oil and gas pipelines and develop its natural resources.
The referendum comes after a grassroots independence movement garnered more than 300,000 signatures this year for a petition calling for a vote on separation, enough to trigger a referendum.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she will proceed with a referendum question on separation regardless, pointing to a separate, counter-petition advocating for Alberta to remain, signed by more than 400,000 people.
Smith said she disagreed with the legal decision and believed that Albertans have a right to voice their opinion in a plebiscite.
Smith has said she will campaign for Alberta to remain in Canada.
A poll released by Canadian firm Angus Reid on Monday suggests that three in five Albertans would vote for their province to remain in Canada.
The Brexit vote in 2016 saw 52% of people in the UK voting to leave, while 48% voted to remain. The UK formally left the EU in 2020. [As I was writing from about 2015 to 2020, Brexit was an act of pure idiocy.]
–It was June 27, 2024, that then-President Joe Biden took on Donald Trump in their only presidential debate and Biden melted down in embarrassing, distressing fashion.
In an interview with “CBS News Sunday Morning,” airing this Sunday, wife Jill Biden claimed:
“I don’t know what happened. As I watched it, I thought, ‘Oh, my God, he’s having a stroke.’ And it scared me to death.”
CBS provided just a 30-second snippet from the full interview, but Jill Biden said she had never seen her husband have a meltdown like the one she saw on the debate stage in Atlanta.
“I was frightened,” she told CBS of that night, “because I had never, ever seen Joe like that. Before or since. Never.”
The interview is part of the release of her memoir of her time as first lady.
But on the night of the debate and for weeks afterward, Jill Biden was not just a witness but a driving force behind the president’s decision to keep fighting to salvage his campaign for re-election. Jill said to him in the minutes after the debate ended, “You did such a great job, you answered every question, you knew all the facts,” as the two appeared with supporters.
And in the weeks after the debate, both Jill and other members of the Biden family, including Hunter, kept encouraging Joe to stay in the race.
I wrote back in this space in December 2023, that Jill needed to tell the president at the family compound in Delaware that Christmas that it was time to honor his pledge to be a ‘transition’ figure and to pass the torch, which would have meant a Democratic primary season.
But here’s what I noted in this space back on Sept. 9, 2023:
“(There) was an important CNN/SSRS survey that asked voters questions such as ‘does Joe Biden inspire confidence,’ to which 28% said ‘yes,’ 72% ‘no.’ And ‘does Biden have the stamina/sharpness to serve effectively as president,’ to which 26% responded ‘yes,’ 74% ‘no,’ with only 23% of independents saying ‘yes.’
“And that’s what it really is about. Something will happen, potentially sooner than later. To beat a dead horse, there is no way we see Joe Biden on the campaign trail next summer.”
Of course, I was wrong…but also right. And the poll reflected perfectly what we were all thinking in 2023.
Dec. 21, 2024:
“I wrote as a yearend prediction in 2022, that I didn’t think Biden would make it through 2023, physically, and I was right. He wasn’t physically able to do the job! I then said last Christmas, 2023, that it was up to Jill Biden to convince stubborn old Joe to announce he was not running for reelection. We then saw the result of the president and his family, let alone close advisers, not getting him to the see the light. The Democratic Party, writ large, paid the price.”
Save your money…there is zero reason to buy Jill Biden’s book.
—Over 500 children with suspected and confirmed cases of measles have died in Bangladesh since March, according to the country’s health ministry this week. The government has been running a mass vaccination campaign to slow the spread and save lives.
—Ugandan authorities on Wednesday ordered the closure of the border with Congo “with immediate effect” as suspected cases of Ebola surge near 1,000 in its neighbor and as others emerge at home.
As of Wednesday, there were 220 suspected deaths in Congo. But this figure is going way up.
—Europe faced record heat this week that shattered temperature records, including in the U.K. on Monday and Tuesday, prompting government warnings after deaths were reported at amateur sports events in France.
A runner died in a Paris race on Sunday, with temperatures as high as 90 F. Another person died during a sports competition in Lyon.
Paris will have had eight straight days of 90+ through Sunday, which has created chaos at Roland Garros for the French Open tennis Grand Slam event.
The national weather service, Meteo France, said temperatures broke records for the month of May all over the country
The U.K. reported it broke its record Monday for the hottest temperature recorded in May, with the temperature hitting 94.6 F at Kew Gardens in southwest London, breaking the previous record of 91.4 F set in 1922 and matched again in 1944. It then hit 95 in London Tuesday.
Ireland’s Shannon Airport hit a record May high of 87 degrees Tuesday.
It hit 104 degrees in Portugal, smashing its all-time May record.
The World Meteorological Organization also forecasts that records will be shattered again and again over the next five years, with an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a critical part of Earth’s natural defenses to lessen human-caused climate change.
There will be more extreme weather including floods, droughts and heat waves.
U.S. weather forecasters are growing increasingly concerned about the Gulf of Mexico and early intense hurricanes there, despite the looming potential for a Super El Nino climate pattern that usually limits hurricane development in the Caribbean.
So buckle up, boys and girls, and stay hydrated.
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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
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Gold $4550…Silver $75.55
Oil $87.80
Bitcoin: $73,430 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $4.39; Diesel: $5.52 [$3.16 – $3.54 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 5/25-5/29
Dow Jones +0.9% [51032]
S&P 500 +1.4% [7580]
S&P MidCap +1.4%
Russell 2000 +1.7%
Nasdaq +2.4% [26972]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-5/29/26
Dow Jones +6.2%
S&P 500 +10.7%
S&P MidCap +12.7%
Russell 2000 +17.6%
Nasdaq +16.1%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
