[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,415
Crude oil futures tumbled Thurs. and Friday, as investors looked for signs of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations while uncertainty persisted over a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
But I thought there hasn’t been any progress, on either, so I turned to Truth Social to see if I had missed a post from President Trump today presenting a clue, and what I saw, 11:26 AM, was the president talking about the “Great Reflecting Pool,” going after those who called it a “paint job.” And he talked about how many of the workers on the project came from Oklahoma, “where I won 77 out of 77 Counties, THREE TIMES…” and I realized there wasn’t anything new on the negotiations front.
So, enjoy the little break that has been taking place at the gas pump, since we hit a nationwide average high of $4.56 for the cycle. I get into the worrisome oil inventory issue down below, executives from Exxon Mobil and Chevron adding to the chorus of those sounding the alarm and let’s just say, another spike in prices could be coming, unless there is a concrete settlement in the Middle East.
But for now, there just isn’t any real progress to speak of.
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30.
Friday, June 5…$90.30.
The global benchmark for crude, Brent, is $93.10.
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75.
Friday, June 5…regular $4.22; diesel $5.37.
As the war in Iran went down…day by day….
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh blows over the weekend, with the U.S. striking what it said were air-defense radar and drone sites and Kuwait coming under attack after Iran said it was retaliating.
U.S. Central Command said American warplanes attacked Iranian radar sites and drone command-and-control facilities on Qeshm Island and Gorik in Iran’s Hormozgan province Saturday and Sunday.
The strikes came after Iran shot down an American MQ-1 drone, Central Command said. U.S. fighters also shot down two Iranian attack drones that posed a threat to ships, it said.
Kuwait said Monday morning the country was under attack by missiles and drones, as alarms sounded across the country. It later blamed Iran for the attacks and condemned them as a dangerous escalation.
President Trump was largely silent over the weekend when it came to the war and any progress in negotiations, save for an interview granted Fox News that was taped Thursday.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned on Sunday the United States was not to be trusted, saying Tehran would not agree to any deal unless it fully secured Iranian rights.
Ghalibaf’s remarks came as reports emerged that President Trump had sent a tougher peace proposal back to Iran, and underlined the rift that the parties still need to close.
Any tweaks to the draft could further delay an agreement to formally end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “until a clear conclusion is reached…everything that is being said now is speculation,” according to state TV.
Iran has said it needs the release of $12 billion in frozen assets before engaging in substantive talks on its nuclear program, dismissing earlier Trump comments that its enriched uranium stockpile would be destroyed as “baseless,” according to Iranian media.
Tehran has insisted that any peace deal include Lebanon, where fierce fighting continues, with Beirut accusing Israel of pursuing a “scorched-earth policy” as it expands operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
A truce between Israel and Hezbollah formally began on April 17 but it has never been observed, with both sides accusing each other of violating it.
Israel’s widening offensive followed the capture of the strategic medieval castle of Beaufort on Sunday, which Israel famously used as a base during their previous two-decade occupation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called the retaking of Beaufort “a dramatic shift.”
And then Sunday evening, he posted on Truth Social:
“Fake News CNN said today, routinely, that my Iran Nuclear Deal doesn’t talk about Nuclear, when actually it states, very clearly, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon. It then goes on, in very strong and lengthy detail, to discuss various other aspects of Nuclear. In fact, that’s what most of the agreement is about. CNN, and so many others in the Fake News Media, is a Low Ratings disaster. Even with new ownership, it is unlikely to ever get better!!! President DJT”
Early Monday morning, 1:02 AM, Trump posted:
“Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t make the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively ‘chirping,’ at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – it always does! President DJT”
The U.S. and Iran continue to discuss the memorandum of understanding that would lift the U.S. and Iranian blockages in the Strait, extend the ceasefire and set up an extendible, 60-day period to resolve issues around Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief to bring an end to the war.
American hard-liners and Israel are wary of a deal with Iran, fearing it will ease pressure on the regime while it is at a weak point without securing concrete concessions on its nuclear program or control of the Strait.
Meanwhile, American forces in recent weeks have been helping coordinate the passage of dozens of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials, even as travel through the waterway remains risky amid the stalled negotiations.
U.S. Central Command has guided around 70 commercial ships through the Strait in the last three weeks, one of the officials said, adding that most of the vessels had turned off their transponders to avoid detection when going through the narrow waterway.
Officials declined to say what type of vessels were going through and what route they took.
But considering that prior to the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, about 120 commercial ships passed through the Strait, the U.S.-coordinated passages – an average of three a day over the three-week period – hardly represent a big comeback for shipping.
So then Monday around 1:00 PM ET, CNBC interviewed President Trump, who said, “I don’t care if they’re over,” referring to negotiations.
And then the president issued two posts….
Trump, 1:29 PM:
“I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop – That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
Trump, 1:43 PM:
“Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
First off, ‘troops’ weren’t heading to Beirut. Netanyahu was threatening to resume attacks on the Hezbollah stronghold in the southern part of the city. And I had trouble picturing who Trump was referring to inside Hezbollah.
Trump then wrote later Monday evening that he had asked the prime minister “not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his Troops around. Thank you, Bibi! I also had a conversation with Representatives of the Leaders of Hezbollah, and they agreed to stop shooting at Israel, and its soldiers. Likewise, Israel agreed to stop shooting at them. Let’s see how long that lasts – Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY!”
Netanyahu, on the other hand, confirmed that Israel wouldn’t strike targets in Beirut so long as Hezbollah ceased its own attacks, but he added that Israel’s campaign in southern Lebanon would continue.
“I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut,” the prime minister said in a social media post. “This position of ours remains unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”
Israel then killed 8 in southern Lebanon Tuesday, including two children.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Israel avoided attacking Hezbollah’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut…so as not to trouble U.S.-Iran negotiations. Hezbollah’s strikes intensified, reaching an average of 125 rockets and 49 drones fired at Israel each day last week. No country can live with that. On Monday Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israel would expand its retaliation to Dahiyeh. Israel issued an evacuation order for civilians.
“Enter Iran. On Monday state media reported the regime had stopped exchanging messages with the U.S. owing to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Iran’s Foreign Minister said they amounted to an American cease-fire violation.
“The shamelessness is always striking. Iran has repeatedly violated its April 7 cease-fire with the U.S. by firing drones and missiles at commercial vessels, U.S. forces and Gulf states. In recent days it has downed a U.S. drone over international waters and fired ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Kuwait. Through it all, Mr. Trump has limited the U.S. responses to self-defense and insisted the cease-fire still obtains.
“In reply to Iran’s threats to end negotiations, Mr. Trump talked tough. ‘I don’t care if they’re over,’ he told CNBC. ‘Frankly, I thought they started to get very boring.’
“But the President’s actions suggest he does care. After long calls with Netanyahu and Lebanese interlocutors, on Monday afternoon Mr. Trump announced a new cease-fire in Lebanon: ‘They agreed that all shooting will stop,’ he wrote on Truth Social.
“Lebanon and Israel suggested the deal is only partial….
“This suffices for now for Israel, which won high ground in Lebanon in recent days and could use time to mount defenses against fiber-optic drones. But Hezbollah’s capital again has been spared the consequences of the group’s own actions. Iran is winning its proxy a refuge.
“Anytime it wants, Iran could tell Hezbollah to stop shooting and end the war, which Israel has no desire to wage. Instead it encouraged Hezbollah’s fire, so it could cut off U.S. talks when Israel inevitably responded in force. The regime has two interests here: Protecting its terror proxy while it attacks Israel and resisting the U.S. changes to the draft memorandum of understanding that we reported on [last] Thursday.
“Iran’s regime sees this as one war, and it has been testing Mr. Trump on all fronts. If it fires on U.S. forces in the Strait or Gulf, will he still try to salvage the cease-fire? How about stepped-up attacks on Israel? How about claiming to quit negotiations? In each case, Mr. Trump has chosen to avoid escalation and keep talking. If he won’t send a different message, it will be difficult to get the regime to comply with a deal, no matter what it promises now.”
Overnight Tuesday, the U.S. and Iran both reported a flurry of new strikes, as Trump administration officials painted a murky picture of where diplomatic efforts stood to end the war.
U.S. Centcom reported that Iran had launched missiles and drone strikes on two regional neighbors, Kuwait and Bahrain, and on civilian mariners transiting nearby waters. Several failed in flight, it said, and others were intercepted.
But some of the drone and/or missiles did get through and destroyed (heavily damaged) a terminal at Kuwait’s international airport, killing one and injuring more than 60.
Kuwait’s defense ministry spokesman called the attack “criminal Iranian aggression, while the foreign ministry said diplomatic missions had been damaged.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed the attack, saying it was in retaliation for U.S. strikes on an Iranian oil tanker and Qeshm Island. Iran also said it targeted U.S. bases in the Gulf.
Centcom said it conducted strikes on an Iranian military ground control station on Qeshm, off the coast of Iran.
These were the most serious military actions from both sides since the ceasefire took hold, and they came as Lebanese and Israeli officials met in Washington for a new round of U.S.-mediated talks on ending the war in Lebanon, even as Israel launched new strikes in the southern part of the country against Hezbollah.
Appearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that an interim truce with Iran “could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week” but that there was no guarantee that such a deal will be “acceptable to the Senate or acceptable to the American people.”
President Trump said in an interview Wednesday that he could meet Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if developments continue positively. I seriously doubt this.
Late Wednesday, the U.S. said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire if Hezbollah also stops fighting, the latest attempt by the Trump administration to keep peace talks with Iran on track as political opposition to the war intensifies.
The White House said the agreement was contingent on “a complete cessation” of attacks by Hezbollah, which must evacuate all operatives from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River near the border with Israel.
But Thursday, Hezbollah rejected the new truce plan in Lebanon, even as President Trump said ceasefire talks are in the “final” stages. Earlier in the day, Iran’s foreign minister said the negotiations had stalled.
—The House passed a measure to restrict President Trump’s authority in the Iran war on Wednesday after weeks of unsuccessful votes, dealing a symbolic blow to him.
The lower chamber passed a war powers resolution by a vote of 215-208, with four Republicans joining all Democrats in supporting the measure.
The measure now heads to the Senate, which has already made some progress toward passing its own war powers resolution, but even it passes the upper chamber, the vote will remain symbolic as Trump could veto it.
But the vote is still significant, reflecting the unpopularity of a war without a clear end in sight.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used one of his first major public appearances since leaving office to defend institutions while accepting an award Sunday honoring his efforts to preserve the central bank’s independence.
Speaking at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library, Powell called universities, courts, Congress and the central bank “the foundation and the embodiment of our democracy” and argued that the Fed’s independence was a “priceless asset” that must be protected.
It was one of his most direct defenses of Fed independence, warning that a single administration’s decision to remove bank officials over policy differences would open the way for future elected officials to follow suit, ultimately undermining the credibility that the Fed has spent decades building.
While Powell never mentioned President Trump by name, he repeatedly returned to the importance of protecting institutions from political pressure and preserving public trust in their independence.
“Like many other institutions, the Fed has been undergoing a stress test,” he said. “Congress wisely chose to insulate monetary policy decisions from political pressure. All other advanced economy nations have done the same.”
On the economic data front, it couldn’t have been better in terms of a current look at the overall economy (with some wrinkles). Today we had another strong jobs’ report for the month of May, an increase of 172,000 for nonfarm payrolls vs. expectations for 85,000, while the month prior was revised upwards from 115,000 to 179,000, so back-to-back 170,000 job gains.
The unemployment rate was as expected, 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, 3.4% year-over-year. This last number is the only downer, the slowest pace since Aug. 2021, with real wages, adjusted for inflation, still in negative territory. [The labor participation rate is also the lowest since Aug. 2021, which isn’t good either.]
The ISM manufacturing index for May was better than forecast, 54.0 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), strongest since May 2022, while the ISM service sector reading also beat consensus at a solid 54.5.
April construction spending was up 0.4%, and factory orders in the month rose 4.8%, both also beating expectations.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is 3.0%, down from 4.3% a few weeks ago.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.48%, down from 6.53% last week.
Next week it’s largely about the SpaceX IPO, which will put Elon Musk alone in the ‘trillionaire’ category, but we also have key inflation reports on consumer and producer prices.
Lastly, the U.S. is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners in President Trump’s biggest move to rebuild his protectionist wall since his earlier levies were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
A 10% tariff rate would apply to imports from Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Taiwan and the UK, among other places, according to a statement from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
Products from other major economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland, would be subject to a 12.5% levy.
The trade office said it was imposing the lower rate on goods from economies that impose prohibitions on forced labor imports or have committed to doing so, while those “that have failed to impose and effectively enforce” them received a higher rate.
Europe and Asia
Lots of data from the eurozone this week.
Euro-area inflation topped 3% for the first time in more than 2 ½ years, cementing expectations for an interest-rate hike when the European Central Bank meets next week.
A flash estimate on May inflation had consumer prices rising 3.2% vs. 3.0% in April, per Eurostat, though ex-food and energy the figure was 2.3%, up from 2.1% the month prior.
Industrial producer prices for April in the euro area increased by 0.6% compared with March, up 4.9% from a year ago. [Eurostat]
April retail trade was down 0.4% over March; up 1.0% from April 2025. [Eurostat]
The euro area unemployment rate is 6.3% for April, unchanged from March. [Eurostat]
The May PMI figures for the eurozone were released by S&P Global. The EA21 composite reading was 48.5, an 18-month low; with manufacturing at 51.6, services 47.7.
Germany: manufacturing 50.1; services 48.1.
France: mfg. 49.7 (down from 52.8 in April); services 44.3 (lowest in 5 ½ yrs.).
Italy: mfg. 52.9; services 49.4.
Spain: mfg. 51.2; services 50.1.
Ireland: mfg. 55.9 (highest in four years); services 50.8.
Netherlands: mfg. 55.9.
Greece: mfg. 53.3.
UK: mfg. 53.9 (4-yr. high); services 49.3.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global:
“Although euro area manufacturers reported an expansion for a fourth successive month in May, the sector is showing signs of struggling under the weight of rising prices and supply disruptions emanating from the war in the Middle East.
“A key development in May was yet another surge in energy and raw material prices, causing the largest monthly jump in firms’ costs for four years. The incidence of supply chain delays has meanwhile risen to the highest since the pandemic supply squeeze of 2022, adding further upward pressure to prices.
“Factories are having to pass higher costs on to customers, which will inevitably drive up inflation in the coming months. However, demand is being hit by higher prices, with May seeing order books stall after three successive monthly improvements.
“Policymakers will be eager to stamp out the rise in inflation, but will also be cautious as to how far rate rises go given the indications of faltering demand that are already appearing.”
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released the PMI readings for May, manufacturing 50.0, non-manufacturing 50.1. The private RatingDog manufacturing figure was 51.8, services 54.4.
Japan’s May manufacturing PMI was 54.5, services 50.0.
April household spending was up a stronger than expected 1.6% over March.
South Korea’s May manufacturing PMI came in at 54.8; Taiwan’s was 56.1. In both, steep increases in new orders were linked to stockpiling efforts due to disruptions stemming from the Middle East war, which weighs heavily on supply chain performance and drove another rapid increase in input costs and subsequently selling prices.
Street Bytes
—Chip stocks, and Nasdaq, had a sloppy week (and a truly bloody Friday) after the parabolic moves of the past few months, Broadcom with disappointing guidance in its earnings release, which was an excuse to take the whole sector down. Many of the high-flyers were down 9%+ just today.
The SpaceX IPO next week is also causing some volatility as some are exiting positions in one area, perhaps in preparation for buying into Elon Musk Inc.
In addition, Bitcoin trading down to levels not seen since Oct. 2024 did not help market sentiment.
The Dow Jones, however, hit new record highs, including Thursday, but finished the week down 0.3% to 50866. The S&P 500 lost 2.6% and Nasdaq a whopping 4.7%, including 4.2% today.
President Trump posted on Truth Social at 10:33 AM this morning:
“With a great Jobs Report, like just announced, stocks should go up, not down. That’s the way it was for 200 years. Growth does not mean inflation! How else can a Country attain GREATNESS??? President DJT”
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.79% 2-yr. 4.16% 10-yr. 4.54% 30-yr. 5.01%
Treasury yields rose this week on the strong economic data, and no signs of a genuine deal in the Iran war that would open the Strait of Hormuz.
The odds are increasing that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates by year end, not lower them.
The 2-year is at its highest level since Feb. 2025.
—The two biggest U.S. oil companies joined a growing chorus of voices sounding the alarm on the imminent doom global markets could soon face.
At a conference last week, Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman warned that with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, and top oil-consuming countries rapidly draining their reserves, such drawdowns can’t go on indefinitely.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” he said, according to CNBC. “I mean really, really low levels. You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up.”
JPMorgan has predicted that commercial oil inventories in the developed world could “approach operational stress levels” by early June. Capital Economics has said stockpiles in top economies could hit “critically low levels” by the end of June.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said at the same industry conference that oil prices will likely soon jump as the market’s “shock absorbers” are depleted, weakening its ability to continue absorbing the disruption.
“Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” he added, according to the Financial Times.
Wirth acknowledged that oil prices had not risen as much as people had expected, but said he expects governments to focus on building reserves back up as “insurance” against a future shock, adding more demand and putting upward pressure on prices.
“The likelihood that another shock is around the corner is something policymakers are going to have to bear in mind…how long they want to roll the dice before they refill inventories is a question that I think we’re going to see policymakers have to grapple with,” he explained.
—Anthropic filed confidentially for an initial public offering, the company said Monday, which could put the company behind Claude on a path to go public this fall, assuming it proceeds as planned.
OpenAI, which will file imminently, and Anthropic are in a race to see which one of them gets to its IPO first, which could mean as much as the battle between the two AI heavyweights for who has the best technology.
Anthropic raised money recently at a valuation approaching $1 trillion, while OpenAI last valued in March at $852 billion.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, however, is coming next week in what may well be the largest IPO in history – with a targeted valuation of $1.5 trillion ($1.75 trillion assuming the exercise of the ‘greenshoe’).
Wednesday, the company then said it aims to sell 555.6 million shares, priced at $135, to raise $75 billion, Musk rejecting another Wall Street convention by setting a fixed price ahead of the marketing phase of the deal.
–Google parent company Alphabet said Monday that it plans to raise $80 billion to help pay for the massive AI infrastructure buildout it has planned. Alphabet will sell off that amount in stock and will then use the funds to pay for “general corporate purposes, including capital expenditures to scale AI infrastructure and global compute,” the company said in a statement.
Part of the plan involves selling $10 billion in stock to Berkshire Hathaway*.
“The company is experiencing strong demand for its AI solutions and services from enterprises and consumers, at levels that are exceeding the company’s available supply,” Alphabet said in its statement. “By scaling its investments, the company seeks to expand its foundational infrastructure to support the significant growth opportunity ahead.”
CEO Sundar Pichai has previously said the company expects to spend between $180 billion and $190 billion on capex before the year is out.
Veteran Wall Streeter/Strategist Ed Yardeni figures that the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will raise about $200 billion combined, and then you have Alphabet’s $80 billion offering, and concludes:
“Fears are mounting that the ‘AI-3’ IPOs will suck the oxygen out of the rest of the stock market,” he wrote in a note to clients.
*Berkshire Hathaway announced earlier that it was acquiring Taylor Morrison Home Corp. in an all-cash deal that would value the homebuilder at 8.5 billion (including the assumption of debt).
This marks CEO Greg Abel’s first true acquisition as Berkshire’s chief executive.
—Nvidia unveiled the first personal laptop computers designed for running artificial-intelligence “agents,” using a newly designed version of the company’s signature AI chips.
Nvidia will work with six manufacturers, including Dell and Lenovo.
To power the new computers, Nvidia is introducing the RTX Spark, which it described as “the most efficient PC chip ever built.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
6/4…117 percent of 2025 levels
6/3…108
6/2…86
6/1…95
5/31…120
5/30…86
5/29…102
5/28…114
—Florida became the first state to file a lawsuit against OpenAI and its chief executive, Sam Altman, for alleged safety failings of AI chatbots.
The lawsuit, filed Monday by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, claims OpenAI and Altman knowingly released an unsafe product and ignored warnings that it could harm users.
The 83-page suit alleges that OpenAI allowed ChatGPT to aid and abet mass shooters, encourage people to take their own lives, degrade users’ critical thinking skills and addict minors to a tool that feigns human compassion.
“This litany of harms is driven by Defendants’ insatiable quest to win the AI arms race and amass large fortunes, despite knowing the danger of ChatGPT,” the suit says.
OpenAI didn’t immediately comment on the suit. OpenAI has previously denied wrongdoing and has said the company continues to strengthen its safeguards.
—The New World screwworm fly has reached south Texas, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed Wednesday, the first time in decades that the parasite with fresh-eating larvae has threatened the nation’s cattle industry and only the third time it’s appeared in the U.S. in that time.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the case was in a 3-week-old calf in LaPryor, Texas, about 50 miles from the Mexico border. Texas State Veterinarian Bud Dinges said he has established a 12-mile quarantine zone, prohibiting the movement of any warm-blooded animal – including pets – outside that zone without an inspection.
Rollins said there have been no other detections of the fly in the U.S., and officials were quick to say that while the fly’s larvae are a threat to livestock production, they don’t infest food. Properly treated, even the infested calf should recover, Rollins said.
But this is a situation worth following.
–Even though the total area burned was relatively small, 2025 was the most economically damaging wildfire year on record, according to a new analysis published last Sunday.
The Los Angeles fires and a handful of severe blazes in other countries, including South Korea and Spain, drove up losses worldwide to at least $54 billion, the study estimates, the highest level of insured losses on record.
When estimates of coincident losses like missed work days, business closures and added pressure on health care systems is factored in, the fires that hit the Los Angeles area alone would add at least $100 billion to the study, which used the EM-DAT database that tracks disasters and their costs to society and the natural world.
—Veteran “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley was fired by CBS News a day after taking aim at Editor in Chief Bari Weiss’ leadership, the latest turmoil at one of America’s most storied news shows.
Pelly interrupted new executive producer Nick Bilton during introductory remarks at a “60 Minutes” staff meeting Monday, with the correspondent accusing Weiss, who wasn’t present, of “murdering” the show and questioned Bilton’s qualifications for the executive producer role. Bilton hasn’t led a weekly TV news show before.
Bilton then wrote to Pelley on Tuesday night to say he was being terminated for cause, effective immediately.
Pelley wrote in a statement late Tuesday: “The leadership of 60 Minutes is no longer recognizable. The principles I hold dear are gone, and so I must leave as well.”
Longtime correspondent Anderson Cooper said in February that he planned to leave after the latest season, which wrapped in May. CBS also parted ways with correspondents Sharyn Alfonsi and Cecilia Vega and executive producer Tanya Simon last week, when the show named Bilton as its new leader.
So what did Pelley’s outburst gain him or his now former colleagues? Obviously, nothing. It was stupid…and insensitive to the members of his production team. That, my friends, is the definition of a jerk! [And a-hole.]
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at more Russian oil facilities overnight Friday into Saturday, in the latest attack on Moscow’s vital oil industry.
“We are rightfully bringing the war back to where it came from,” President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X.
But over the weekend, Zelensky warned that he was expecting Russia to carry out a major attack on his country soon based on intelligence shared by the U.S. and European allies, and Monday night, Russia once again launched a vicious assault, firing 73 missiles and more than 650 drones, largely on Kyiv and Dnipro, killing at least 22 and wounding more than 100. It was the third heavy assault on Kyiv in under a month.
Zelensky posted on Telegram: “This was a large-scale attack and an absolutely clear statement from Russia: if Ukraine is not protected from ballistic and other missile strikes, these attacks will continue.”
The Kremlin said on Tuesday the war had entered “a new paradigm” after what it called “inhumane acts of terror” by Ukraine’s military against civilians.
Zelensky sent a letter last week to President Trump and Congress, asking for air defense systems. As of Monday, officials said he had not received a response.
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha urged partners to take “concrete steps” to help Ukraine and put pressure on Russia.
“Peace efforts will only succeed when they are backed with real pressure on Moscow,” he said in a post on X, appealing for tougher sanctions and more military support.
But then overnight Tuesday, early Wednesday, Ukraine carried out a strike on the outskirts of Russia’s St. Petersburg, hours before the opening of a major economic forum designed to attract foreign investment into the country.
Thousands of guests from 130 countries are due to attend, including a low-key U.S. delegation, with President Putin due to address the crowd on Friday.
Hours later after the strikes, President Zelensky confirmed Ukrainian drones had hit several locations in Russia, including an oil terminal and a naval base in the nearby town of Kronstadt.
“The Ukrainian plan of long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as it is needed to bring peace closer,” Zelensky wrote on social media, using a euphemism for long-distance strikes on Russia.
A Ukrainian drone also hit a passenger bus traveling through a Russia-controlled part of Ukraine, Wednesday, killing 7 and injuring 11, the Kremlin-installed leader of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region said.
And Thursday, Russian officials said at least four people were killed in two separate incidents in another wave of attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea.
At week’s end, President Zelensky called for face-to-face negotiations in a lengthy public letter addressed directly to Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian leader said it would be “wrong to simply wait” until the war in Europe becomes the focus of the U.S.’s attention once more, adding peace could only come “through direct engagement between” Ukraine and Russia.
He also called for a full ceasefire for the duration of proposed negotiations – something Putin ruled out earlier on Thursday.
“Ukraine proposes ending this war through direct engagement between us – and you. I am proposing a meeting,” Zelensky wrote.
President Trump told reporters on Thursday he thought “it would be great” if the two leaders met.
Speaking to foreign journalists in St. Petersburg, without apparently having seen the contents of the letter, Putin said he was “certainly prepared and willing to reach an agreement with Ukraine,” but said compromises needed to be made.
Putin has insisted Russia is winning the war and Ukraine must surrender territory, which Ukraine has ruled out doing, saying it would embolden Russia to invade again, as it had in 2022 when it launched its full-scale war eight years after illegally annexing Crimea.
In the letter, Zelensky said: “It is not as if we in Ukraine are concerned about the fate of Russian soldiers after everything your war has brought to our country.
“But I do care about Ukrainians. We are losing our people, and every loss is painful to us.”
Putin, addressing the economic forum today after the prior session with the reporters Thursday, and after reading Zelensky’s letter, said he sees “no sense” in meeting. “The author of the letter” has done everything to make such talks impossible, Putin stated.
—George Will / Washington Post
“Fifteen months ago, in an Oval Office tantrum that will live in infamy, President Donald Trump ordered Ukraine to surrender. He told President Volodymyr Zelensky, ‘You don’t have the cards.’ He saw an incurable mismatch with Russia.
“Russia’s subsequent stumble was dramatized (last) month by precautions Ukraine forced Vladimir Putin to take regarding Russia’s annual Victory Day. Usually the May 9 parade of military formations and hardware lasts much longer than this year’s 45 minutes. There were fewer men and machines because Moscow now lives with the threat of Ukrainian drones. Staging areas for the parade would have been inviting targets. In a splendid taunt, Zelensky announced that Ukraine would ‘permit’ the parade by not targeting Red Square that day.
“Putin’s limp recent assessment of the war was, ‘I believe the matter is coming to a close.’ ‘The matter,’ his ‘special military operation’ to extinguish Ukrainian nationhood, began 51 months ago. He assumed it would require at most a few weeks….
“By this month, the Economist estimates, the human cost of 4 ¼ years of aggression has been about 3 percent of Russia’s pre-war population of fighting-age men killed or wounded….
“Putin’s war has provoked the enlargement and strengthening of NATO, has accelerated the transformation of ‘Europe’ from a merely geographic expression to a political fact, and has refuted his claim to Russia’s greatness. The stresses on Russia’s economy and society – especially the ever-larger cohort of war-damaged men – have Putin’s sagging nation in what Alexandra Prokopenko (of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, writing in the Economist) calls ‘negative equilibrium’: ‘holding itself together while steadily destroying its own future capacity.’
“A former senior Russian government official, writing anonymously for the Economist, says the war Russia started has reached a situation known in chess as ‘zugzwang,’ when every move worsens the position. By the end of this year, two current unknowns might be known: how Putin might lash out in response to the pain of Ukraine’s military revival. And how Trump might lash out in response to the painful (to him) fact that, refuting his clairvoyance, Ukraine holds good and improving cards.”
China: At the annual Shangri-La defense conference in Singapore last weekend, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth assured Pacific allies that Washington remained committed to the region, but toned down previous comments calling China a threat.
Speaking to a group of world leaders, diplomats and top security officials, Hegseth said that the region “has profound implications for U.S. security and prosperity” and that Washington’s priority was to “achieve a lasting and favorable balance of power in the Pacific.”
It was his second time addressing the forum, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Last year, he raised the ire of Beijing by warning of rapidly developing threats from China, particularly its aggressive stance toward Taiwan. He said China is no longer just building up its military forces to take Taiwan, it’s “actively training for it, every day.”
This year, however, the meeting came only about two weeks after President Trump visited Chinese President Xi in Beijing, following which Trump called Xi a “great leader” and said that they were going to have a “fantastic future together.”
Hegseth said the two leaders had agreed that China and the U.S. should “build a constructive relationship of strategic stability, based on fairness and reciprocity, reaffirming that while our nations will vigorously protect our respective interests, we can secure practical, mutually beneficial agreements where our interests align.”
However, he said it was still an American priority to ensure that China is not allowed to dominate the Indo-Pacific.
“There is rightful alarm regarding China’s historic military buildup and the expansion of its military activities in the region and beyond,” he said.
“We share a clear-eyed assessment of that security environment and a mutual understanding that a Pacific dominated by any hegemon would unravel the regional balance of power and undermine the equilibrium we all seek to preserve.”
Hegseth reiterated a demand which he made in last year’s speech, calling on Asian allies to spend more on defense, setting 3.5% of their GDP as a target, and he heaped praise on countries who have in recent months increased military spending and co-operation with the U.S., namechecking allies such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines among others.
North Korea: Pyongyang unveiled a new facility to produce nuclear bomb fuels, with leader Kim Jong Un announcing plans on Thursday to bolster the country’s nuclear forces “at an exponential rate.”
Some experts still question whether North Korea has functioning nuclear missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland, but the disclosure of the nuclear plants implies that Kim is eager to cement his country’s status as a nuclear power and has no intentions of placing his program on a negotiating table.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim, visiting the site Wednesday, said he and other top officials “confirmed the order of priority for implementing the ambitious future plan designed to beef up our state’s nuclear forces at an exponential rate.”
KCNA said the facility used “more sophisticated technology” but didn’t provide further details like the location. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed the site as a uranium enrichment plant.
KCNA photos showed Kim walking through narrow aisles lined with dense rows of silver tubes and pipes, in what appeared to be a centrifuge hall.
Chinese President Xi is traveling to Pyongyang next week, both countries announced Friday, in what will be his first visit in nearly seven years.
His trip will be the latest in a series of steps by China to reinforce its close ties with its nuclear-armed neighbor. Kim Jong Un has reached out to Russia in recent years, notably by sending troops and conventional weapons to support its war in Ukraine.
But in the past year, Kim has likewise been trying to improve ties with China, the North’s biggest trading partner and provider of aid.
In making the trip, Xi is trying to reassert China’s influence over Kim.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 41% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 57% disapprove (June 5). Kind of sickly for this normally Trump-friendly survey, and not a good sign for the GOP and November. Then again, what is the Democrats’ message?
–Heading into Tuesday’s big California gubernatorial primary, the final Emerson College Polling California survey had former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) ahead with 28%, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer (D), 22%, and conservative commentator Steve Hilton (R) at 21%.
The two candidates who then received the most votes, regardless of party affiliation, will progress to the general election in November.
So, with the above poll in mind, with 60% of the vote counted, Hilton led with 27.2%, followed by Becerra with 26.0% and Steyer 20.2%.
In the closely watched Los Angeles mayoral race, with 64% of the vote counted, incumbent Karen Bass leads at 35.1%, followed by Spencer Pratt with 29.4% and Nithya Raman at 23.4%.
California’s ballot-counting process is indeed painfully slow, but there are all kinds of checks and balances, and mail-in ballots, as long as they are postmarked election day, have a week to come in. All of which allows President Trump to write on Truth Social, June 4:
“Watch California, everybody! Our Election process is as bad, or worse, than any Third World Country. The biggest difference is, they count their Votes much faster – They don’t wait seven days to tell you who won, rigging the Election during each and every one of them. Americans are ashamed of what is happening!”
And earlier Thursday:
“I believe we have the Most Dishonest Elections of any Country, anywhere in the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
—In my home congressional district, NJ -7, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) hasn’t been seen in three months as he deals with a supposed health issue. In Tuesday’s primary, Democratic voters chose a candidate to go up against him, Rebecca Bennett, who is a clone of Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot that is also on the moderate side.
Kean said he’ll return to Congress in a few weeks, but I’ll be stunned if he retains his seat in November.
I was at a gathering this week where the local mayor, a good friend, said no one has heard a word about Kean’s condition, including the congressman’s own staff.
I’ve told you I remained a registered Republican so I could vote in Republican primaries, and, yes, I voted for Tom Kean the other week.
But that doesn’t mean I’ll vote for him in November!
—The Wall Street Journal reported exclusively Saturday: “Days after Graham Platner announced his Maine Senate bid, his wife informed the campaign about a potential political problem she had previously discovered on the oyster farmer’s phone: sexually explicit texts with several women, according to people familiar with the matter….
“The previously unreported deliberations over sexually explicit texts discovered on Platner’s phone comes as the former veteran has exploded onto the national political scene, kindling Democratic hopes that they can unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins and gain control of the Senate.
“Platner has recently faced disclosures about controversial posts from his now deleted Reddit account. They have included comments from his account downplaying sexual assault and crude posts about sex workers and masturbation. Platner has already admitted to having covered up a Nazi-linked tattoo….
“Platner quickly captivated Maine voters with a progressive pitch that emphasizes an appeal to working-class voters and a non-interventionist foreign policy.”
But as the week went on, new allegations surfaced concerning Platner and his past relationships with women.
Susan Collins will win this race, the Democrats making a big mistake in going with Platner over Gov. Janet Mills. [One poll I saw today, however, had it even.]
—President Trump said Tuesday he was appointing Bill Pulte, a close ally (pitbull) who leads the Federal Housing Finance Agency, as acting director of national intelligence.
Pulte will succeed Tulsi Gabbard, who resigned last month.
The president said Pulte would remain director of the FHFA and the chairman of Fannie and Freddie while serving as acting DNI.
Of course, this appointment is a joke…a bad one. Senator Angus King, Independent of Maine, said it “makes no sense.” King, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the job of coordinating the nation’s spy agency requires experience and expertise in national security, and “the president has chosen someone with no experience whatsoever in this complex and critically important field.”
When questioned by reporters Thursday about the appointment, Trump said Pulte doesn’t need to be a permanent choice, but hinted at Pulte digging into domestic investigations, despite the U.S. intelligence community’s focus on foreign targets.
“He’s a very smart guy, and you may find out some things about the rigged elections, etc., etc.”
Yes, November is going to a freakin’ mess.
–We had a few court rulings late last Friday that went against President Trump. A federal judge rule that Trump’s name must be removed from the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and that the institution cannot be closed while it undergoes extensive renovations.
Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington, D.C., said in his decision that only Congress had the authority to rename the center. “Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it,” he wrote.
Shortly after the start of his second term, Trump moved to take control of the Kennedy Center, naming himself chairman and installing numerous allies on its board. The board then voted to add the president’s name to the institution, making it the Donald J. Trump and John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts. In February, Trump announced the national cultural center would close for two years to allow a multimillion-dollar renovation project beginning July 4.
Cooper’s ruling allowed the center two weeks to remove Trump’s name from the building
Trump denounced the court’s ruling in a Truth Social post on Friday and said he would be “working with Congress to transfer this failing Institution back to them so they can make a determination as to what to do with it.”
“Unless I am free to do what I do better than anyone else, bring this Institution back, physically, financially, and artistically, I have no interest in continuing what could only be a hopeless journey into ‘NEVER NEVER LAND,’” he added.
Trump’s post was a rather lengthy one, Friday evening, followed by another lengthy one on the reflecting pool between the Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial.
—President Trump then reportedly backed off his plan to establish a $1.8 billion fund to compensate people who claimed they were victims of unfair prosecution by the government.
Last Friday, a federal judge ordered a pause on efforts to stand up the fund while she weighs a legal challenge in an Eastern Virginia federal court.
The president reportedly had been leaning for days toward scrapping the fund, which critics, both Democrats and Republicans, have characterized as a scheme to reward Trump’s political allies with public benefits.
The administration signaled a retreat on Monday, when the Justice Department said in a statement that it would abide by a federal judge’s temporary order not to proceed with any steps to activate the fund until at least June 12, when a hearing on the fund is scheduled.
It was unclear whether getting rid of the fund would affect another part of the legal settlement in the case, which provides Trump, his family and his businesses with significant immunity from audits.
More than a dozen Republican senators privately urged top Trump aides to drop the fund since its creation last week, the Wall Street Journal reported, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who is usually supportive of the president’s efforts.
Senate Republicans pressed acting Attorney General Todd Blanches on the fund at a contentious meeting recently that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) referred to as one of the roughest in his years in the Senate.
Blanche said outrage over the fund is premature, as it is in its early stages. The fund is “completely legal, allowed under our laws, and has been done before,” he said last week.
Still, Republicans on Monday cast serious doubt on whether the president would ultimately be willing to kill off the fund, which likely would have distributed huge sums to Trump’s allies, suggesting they needed firmer assurances that he would follow through.
Tuesday, at a House appropriations subcommittee hearing, acting AG Blanche then said, “We’re not moving forward with the fund. Period.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he had spoken to Blanche and expected his statement would be “very definitive, very clear, and create the certainty that I hope all of our members and House members need as well, in order for us to proceed.”
But Blanche also said Tuesday the Justice Department is standing by an extraordinary measure giving President Trump, his family and his businesses potentially lucrative protection from I.R.S. investigations.
“Nothing has changed with that,” he said, referring to the tax proposal. “We’re not moving forward with the anti-weaponization fund.”
But then Wednesday, in speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, the president acted like the fund would still be available.
And then late Thursday, early Friday morning, Republican senators stopped short of using their political leverage to kill the “anti-weaponization” fund, approving a critical immigration-enforcement bill without adding language reining in the controversial program.
Passage of the $70 billion package funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol through the end of Trump’s second term came after a more than a 19-hour session of amendment votes and intraparty negotiations. The GOP-backed measure passed 52 to 47, with Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voting with Democrats against the bill.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) initially said he wouldn’t support the immigration-enforcement legislation unless it included language to kill the fund. But later he made clear that protecting politically vulnerable colleagues was his priority ahead of a midterm election in which
Republicans are trying to preserve their 53-47 majority. He and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a fellow outspoken opponent of the fund, ultimately voted for the bill.
The House is expected to take up the immigration-enforcement measure next week.
—John Bolton, a national security adviser to President Trump in his first term, has reached a tentative deal with prosecutors to plead guilty to mishandling classified information when he compiled notes for a book that was harshly critical of the president, according to reports.
A notice in Maryland federal court, where Bolton was indicted last year, indicates he is now scheduled for re-arraignment – a hearing that can signal a planned guilty plea. The hearing is set for June 26.
Assuming the judge approves of the plea deal, Bolton plans to plead guilty to a single count of illegal retention of classified information and pay a fine, facing anywhere from no prison time to five years of incarceration when he is sentenced. If Bolton had gone to trial and lost, he could have faced decades in prison.
No doubt President Trump wants Bolton to serve jail time. But as the Wall Street Journal editorialized, if the book had been favorable to the president, there would have been no charges.
—The U.S. military said it carried out another strike Saturday on a boat accused of smuggling drugs in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, killing three men in the fourth attack of the week, putting the total death toll in the months-long campaign at 205.
U.S. Southern Command announced the strike with its usual language that the vessel was “engaged in narco-trafficking operations” and operated by a designated terrorist organization. It provided no evidence for the allegation. It never does.
–I literally live about 15 minutes from the outskirts of Newark, N.J., and maybe 30 minutes from a site that’s been in the national news these days, Delaney Hall, the immigration deportation facility that is privately owned by a Florida-based company, GEO Group.
There is no doubt that the protests (reportedly over conditions in the detention center) and bouts of violence you have seen is being spurred on by outside extremists, from both sides, but I have little to say about it. It leads the local news coverage almost every night these days, and Newark’s mayor, Ras Baraka, installed a curfew for a half-mile zone around the jail, that he then lifted a day or two later.
The new administration of Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill has a crisis it didn’t want, Sherrill deploying the state police to create “peaceful protest zones,” the governor not wanting ICE officers on the front lines, which she says would just exacerbate tensions.
Mayor Baraka said the city has for the past year been in active litigation with GEO, saying “Our objective is to close the building.”
—President Trump on Truth Social, Sat., Noon:
“I understand Artists are getting ‘the yips’ having to do with their performance on Wednesday, so I am thinking about bringing the Number One Attraction anywhere in the World, the man who gets much larger audiences than Elvis in his prime, and he does so without a guitar, the man who loves our Country more than anyone else, and the man who some say is the Greatest President in History (THE GOAT!), DONALD J. TRUMP, to take the place of these highly paid, Third Rate ‘Artists,’ and give a major speech, rallying the Country forward like I have done ever since being President!…”
The event is billed as the Great American State Fair on the National Mall and will run for more than two weeks starting in late June. Organizers last week announced the fair would have a 110-foot Ferris wheel and feature performances from several music stars, including country singer Martina McBride and rocker Bret Michaels. But within days, McBride, Michaels and other performers withdrew, saying they didn’t know it was a political event, which makes you wonder what their agents/Managers have been telling them.
The fair is being planned by the Trump-aligned group Freedom 250. Critics say it caters to MAGA fans. Freedom 250 says the events are nonpartisan.
Another group, America250 (sic), was established by Congress as a bipartisan initiative and is hosting its own events, including a New Years Eve-like ball drop in New York’s Times Square.
–From the BBC today: “At least 49 people have died of thirst in a remote part of the Sahara Desert in northern Niger after the truck carrying them broke down, authorities say.”
The group was stranded more than 80 km (50 miles) west of a major border crossing point between Niger and Algeria.
But get this. Two survived, “trekking across the desert to Assamaka, where they alerted authorities.”
They walked 50 miles “in the heart of a hostile environment where extreme temperatures and lack of supply points makes survival extremely difficult.”
What an amazing feat!
This would be a great story for Scott Pelley on “60 Minutes”….oops.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4320…Silver $68.10
Oil $90.30
Bitcoin: $60,295 [4:00 PM ET, Friday…dreadful week]
Regular Gas: $4.22; Diesel: $5.37 [$3.14 – $3.51 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 6/1-6/5
Dow Jones -0.3% [50866]
S&P 500 -2.6% [7383]
S&P MidCap 0.8%
Russell 2000 -2.8%
Nasdaq -4.7% [25709]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-6/5/26
Dow Jones +5.8%
S&P 500 +7.9%
S&P MidCap +11.8%
Russell 2000 +14.3%
Nasdaq +10.6%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
*The goal has always been to keep StocksandNews free. The site traffic has been surging. For those of you with appropriate contacts, including from within your own company, I’d appreciate hearing from you.
Contact: briannovak24@gmail.com.
