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Edition 1,421
In a new study by the Pew Research Center, China is now viewed more positively than the U.S. in many countries around the world, the first time the organization has recorded such results.
The findings from the non-partisan, U.S.-based think tank indicate that favorable views of China have reached record highs in many countries, while perceptions of the United States have worsened.
In general, respondents expressed low confidence in both President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, though Xi scored higher than Trump.
While the U.S. was still seen to respect personal freedoms more than China, China was seen to interfere in other countries’ affairs less than the U.S.
Pew polled more than 42,000 people in 36 countries between February and May.
Spain, Indonesia, Italy, Greece and Canada were among the countries that saw the biggest swings towards China.
Only six countries in this year’s survey still favor the U.S. more, most of which are staunch U.S. allies: Poland, the Philippines, South Korea, India, Japan and Israel.
And positive views of China reached record highs in some places surveyed this year, including Italy, Spain, Colombia, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Turkey.
The highest and lowest ratings for Xi in the survey came from Pakistan and Japan respectively, at 83% and 7%.
For Trump the highest rating was 68% from the Philippines and the lowest was 4% from the West Bank/East Jerusalem.
A median of 75% felt that the U.S. interfered in the affairs of other countries a great deal or a fair amount, while 45% said the same of China.
A similar Gallup survey last year found that China surpassed the U.S. in global approval ratings, with the widest gap recorded in China’s favor in 20 years.
With this as background, President Trump, in a prime-time address from the White House on Thursday night, accused China of interfering with U.S. elections in 2020, threatening to upend ties with the world’s second-biggest economy as he focuses on securing a victory in the midterms in November.
Trump said the Chinese government stole 220 million voter files, including names, addresses and other sensitive data in what is “believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history” – claims that U.S. intelligence agencies have previously debunked.
The main purpose of the ominous, and pathetic, address was to get Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, as he warned about risks of meddling in U.S. election systems.
Trump made the allegations ahead of Xi’s planned visit in September.
Trump also accused intelligence agencies of concealing information about China’s efforts to meddle in the 2020 election ultimately won by former President Biden.
“China has all along adhered to the principle of non-interference in other’s internal affairs,” Liu Chang, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement.
Democratic Sen. Mark Warner – a member of the Gang of Eight, the top Republican and Democratic legislators from both chambers on intelligence – called Trump’s claims about China “totally bogus.”
“The fact is our intelligence agencies unanimously agreed that China did not even try to change a single vote in the 2020 election,” Warner wrote on X.
A 2021 report by the U.S. intelligence community concluded that there were no indications “any foreign actor attempted to alter any technical aspect of the voting process in the 2020 U.S. elections, including voter registration, casting ballots, vote tabulation, or reporting results.”
State and local governments administer elections throughout the U.S., and the decentralized nature means undetected manipulation would be extremely difficult due to cybersecurity monitoring, intelligence collection, and post-election audits, according to the report.
But Trump said Thursday night, “There is no Third World country that has elections like we have.”
And: “Our elections were left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen, and the trust of the American people was lost. This cannot be allowed to continue,” Trump said.
Yet during the 25-minute speech, Trump didn’t provide any evidence of voter fraud, prove that people had cast ballots in the U.S. who shouldn’t have or reveal that election outcomes had been altered because of interference.
The president also lashed out at the media, arguing that ABC and NBC should lose their broadcast licenses for not airing his prime-time address live on their networks.
Sue Gordon, former deputy director of National Intelligence in 2020, said Trump gave a “dangerous speech.” And speaking of China and our other adversaries, Gordon said: “They don’t have to interfere. They just have to get us not to trust our democracy.”
Related to the above, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out this week, around 40% of voters in the 2024 election said the economy was their top issue, far outstripping any other matter. And those voters favored Donald Trump by 60% to 38%. “Many say they were moved by his pledges to tame inflation, rebuild U.S. infrastructure, cut red tape and trim government waste.”
About a year and a half later, more voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy than approve, 61% to 35%, an average of polls by the Cook Political Report found this month, even as they have received tax breaks under Trump, and the stock market has hit new highs.
But inflation has heated up as the war against Iran has fueled higher energy prices, and owning a home is still out of reach for many Americans.
The president preferred to talk about something else on Thursday.
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, July 17…$82.10…up almost $11 on the week.
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, July 17…regular $3.98; diesel $5.05
As it went down, day by day, in the Iran War….
Going back to late Friday night, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME! Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran – PRAISE BE TO ALLAH! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
This came about after calls for the president’s killing at the funeral of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday, further underlining the tensions gripping the Middle East as an interim deal to end the war buckles under repeated crossfire.
If Trump were assassinated, making Vice President JD Vance the new commander in chief, Vance could do what Trump ordered, or he could decide not to follow his predecessor’s orders – or offer a direct response in a different way.
In a rare written message on Saturday, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge for the killing of his father and predecessor, calling it the “demand of our nation.”
It was his first statement since the weeklong funeral for the elder Ayatollah.
Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz after a warning shot fired by its military struck a vessel using an unauthorized route in the waterway, further jeopardizing the already tenuous ceasefire.
U.S. Central Command said a short time later that its forces began another round of strikes against Iran, targeting the areas around the Strait.
“The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait,” the American military said.
The U.S. said it hit “dozens” of Iranian military targets in overnight attacks, Sunday, in response to Iran hitting commercial ships in the Strait.
The U.S. military said it struck “air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats,” using aircraft, ships, and drones – including “one-way attack sea drones for the first time.”
In response, Iran says it targeted U.S. bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and also radar systems in Oman.
Jordan and Kuwait said they were intercepting incoming fire, and air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain, hours after U.S. forces said they had struck dozens of military targets in Iran.
A handful of ships passed through the Strait in secret over the weekend, even as observable crossings all but ceased after the flare-up in fighting.
All of the six commodity carriers that transited Hormuz on Sunday did so with their transponders turned off, according to preliminary Kpler data analyzed by Bloomberg*. So-called dark crossings outnumbered observable passages for the previous three days.
*Another report I saw said eight commercial vessels crossed on Sunday, down from 21 on Saturday.
Shipping through the Strait plummeted over the weekend after Iran attacked a Cypriot-flagged container ship on Saturday, which suffered “significant engine room damage” and a civilian crew member was missing, the U.S. said, setting off an exchange of hostilities that spilled into Monday.
There were no ships seen passing through the Strait early on Monday, according to ship-tracking data based on Automatic Identification System signals. But vessels in recent days have appeared on either side of Hormuz – in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman – after having last broadcast their locations from the other side, indicating that they transited Hormuz with turning on their transponders.
Iran then insisted on Monday that it controlled the Strait – an assertion the United States has denied.
For its part, Oman has circulated its own proposal for joint administering the Strait alongside Iran, including the potential imposition of service fees on transiting ships. The plans would be a significant change from the prewar status in the Strait, when boats generally passed freely.
The UAE accused Iran of a “brazen” attack on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, killing one and wounding eight, as President Trump said the U.S. would impose a 20% charge as part of a new blockade on the waterway.
The IRGC later confirmed the strikes via a statement to Telegram, where it said two tankers had ignored warnings, turned off navigation systems and attempted to pass through a mined route.
Trump posted on Truth Social Monday morning:
“The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi responded to the announcement of a blockade by saying that Tehran would remain the Strait’s “GUARDIAN” – using Trump’s word.
“POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service.
“Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER.
“20% is of course too much. We will be fair,” Araghchi posted on X.
The dispute over control of the Strait threatens to derail efforts to end the war, but Trump insisted a deal was still possible.
The U.S. then launched strikes for a third consecutive night amid escalating attacks between the two countries Monday night.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen fired ballistic missies and drones on Saudi Arabia, the worst attack in several years that threatens to draw the rebels into the wider regional conflict between Tehran and Washington.
The Houthis claimed they targeted Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia’s southwestern region Monday and warned aviation companies to avoid Saudi airspace until what they called a Saudi siege of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, is lifted.
The Saudis said their defense systems deal with the missiles, without saying whether Riyadh would retaliate.
The Houthi strike came hours after the group accused Saudi jets of bombing Sanaa International Airport to prevent a plane carrying the group’s delegation from returning from the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran.
Yemen’s internationally-recognized government, which is based in Riyadh, claimed the attack on Sanaa, saying Iran had violated Yemen’s sovereignty by landing the plane there.
It was the first major escalation between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government since the two agreed to a ceasefire in 2022. Saudi Arabia intervened in the Yemeni civil war that erupted around 2015 on its border to prop up the government after Houthis overthrew it.
The concern is the Houthis will go back to disrupting traffic in the Red Sea, through which the Saudis have been exporting much of their oil when the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
But Tuesday morning Trump pulled another 180, abandoning plans to impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait.
Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military… (The) Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran – and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION. We will therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything having to do with Iranian cargo. Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future… America is WINNING again, winning like never before. The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people, including 52,000 protesters, are OVER and, most importantly, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
In an interview with Fox News Tuesday, President Trump threatened to strike Iran’s bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to talks.
“Next week it gets really bad for them,” Trump said. We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”
The U.S. intensified its airstrike campaign Wednesday in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on ships trying to pass through the Strait. The American strikes hit an Iranian army barracks, killing at least seven troops and wounding more than 260 people across the country, Iranian officials said.
More than 30 have been killed over “recent days,” an Iranian government spokesperson said, without elaborating
The IRGC threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade.
“The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one,” it said.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the U.S. struck Iran for a fifth day and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near the country’s main export terminal, as tensions between the warring sides show little sign of abating.
Iran responded to the U.S.’s barrage on military targets such as command centers and missile sites by firing missiles and drones at American bases in Kuwait and Jordan. The Jordanian government said it intercepted eight missiles.
Tehran seems in no mood to back down in the face of President Trump’s warning that he’ll escalate strikes until the Islamic Republic reopens the Strait.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said the global economy faces a renewed challenge if the conflict that’s choked the Strait isn’t resolved in a matter of weeks.
“Markets are nervous” and grappling with “big uncertainty” due to an escalation of attacks from both sides that threatens to disrupt shipments of oil, fertilizer, natural gas and other cargoes through the key waterway, Birol said in an interview on the sidelines of the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, the attacks intensified further during a sixth straight day of hostilities, increasing fears of a return to full war with no agreement reached over the Strait.
The U.S. hit southern Iran, striking six road bridges, according to Iranian state media. There were separate reports of attacks on the southern town of Bushehr, which houses the country’s only nuclear power plant. The tower in Chabahar port was destroyed on Friday, U.S. Central Command confirmed in a post on X.
Iran’s Ministry of Energy called on households to limit air conditioning due to southern provinces facing “extreme heat and attacks on power-supply facilities.”
Iran responded by firing on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain – the three countries that have borne the brunt of the Islamic Republic’s counterstrikes.
Kuwait reported strikes on a water desalination and electricity plant, with many power-generation units sustaining damage.
Wall Street Journal / Editorial, Monday PM:
“The blockade of Iran is returning and the U.S. is taking responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump said Monday. Could the late Lindsey Graham, proven right again about Iran’s regime, be on the President’s mind? We sure hope so. The question is whether Mr. Trump will stick to this new-old strategy of pressure on the regime, or after a short time again look for the off-ramp of futile negotiations….
“(No) one knows how serious Mr. Trump is about a $15-a-barrel toll [Ed. the Journal taking 20% of the then WTI price of $75] on oil exiting the Strait. It’s a bad idea, but the impulse that the U.S. should be compensated for doing what only it can in defense of Hormuz and the global economy isn’t crazy. Better ways can be found for the wealthy Gulf countries and Asian buyers of Gulf oil and gas to chip in.
“Most important is Mr. Trump’s commitment to the Strait. After ducking the matter in wartime, and then trying to solve it via diplomacy only for Iran to renege, the President now declares U.S. guardianship. This was always required to ‘finish the job,’ as he lately describes his goal….
“Iran’s regime may plead anew for talks as the pressure builds, but it has shown again that it can’t be trusted. On Friday senior U.S. officials briefed reporters that the next few days would be a ‘test.’: Would the regime declare an end to all the attacks in the Strait, as the MOU requires? Iran answered with more missiles and drones. It failed the test.
“With the MOU Mr. Trump gave the regime a reprieve, and as usual it perceived U.S. weakness and sought to exploit it. Iran trashed the cease-fire, and despite U.S. efforts to save it, the deal is now in tatters. Giving up leverage with the MOU didn’t work, and we hope Mr. Trump has also tossed that in the bin of broken Iranian promises. If the Iranians want to talk about their nuclear weapons program, let them negotiate under the U.S. blockade as their main revenue source dries up.
“Like the nuclear program before it, the Strait was supposed to become the core of Iran’s leverage to bully the world and the linchpin of its postwar deterrence. But now the regime invites more economic punishment and U.S. air strikes merely to hang on to its imagined ‘right’ to fire on commercial shipping. The U.S. response should be to make the Strait an albatross for the regime and its Revolutionary Guard.
“Last week Mr. Trump told the truth about Iran’s lying regime. Now let him act on it – and stick to the strategy.”
David Ignatius / Washington Post
“Trump’s daily barrage of bluster and braggadocio amounts to negotiating with himself. He declares victory one day, resumes war the next. He praises Iran’s leaders, then calls them ‘scum.’ He foolishly announces a 20 percent fee for protecting the Strait of Hormuz and then rescinds the rash proposal the next day. Trump must imagine this nonstop trash talk gives him leverage. He’s wrong. It makes him look weak in the eyes of Iran and the world.
“Zoom out and you can see the chaotic situation more clearly: Iran’s economy is severely weakened; its nuclear facilities are buried under rubble and its top nuclear scientists are dead; its leadership appears divided over whether to do a deal with the United States. Hard-liners exult that they have survived an onslaught from America and Israel, but they don’t seem to have a strategy for what’s next.
“Now zoom out on America: Trump is fighting an unpopular war with significant economic costs. He went to war with a poorly defined strategy and no good exit ramp; his negotiators floated an ambitious proposal for modernization of postwar Iran, but Iran’s leadership, while privately curious, has publicly spurned it. The memorandum of understanding that was supposed to open the Strait of Hormuz is a dead letter.
“So Trump has pushed the reset button, and we’re beginning what sadly might be called ‘Iran Fiasco 2.0.’ The tech investor Esther Dyson famously closes her emails with the admonition, ‘Always make new mistakes.’ But Trump seems intent on repeating the same ones.”
–According to a report by Axios on Tuesday, President Trump allegedly told Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel should remove IDF troops from Syria and Lebanon during a phone call last Thursday.
Trump claimed that the presence of Israeli military personnel in Syrian territory could create tension and may lead to escalation, one U.S. official told Axios.
“They don’t want you there. You should redeploy,” Trump allegedly told Netanyahu, according to the official.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
On Monday, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said an interest-rate hike should be on the table if this week’s inflation data show price pressures remaining firm, his clearest signal yet that he could back a rate increase this summer. He said he was “determined to avoid repeating” the Fed’s 2021 mistake of responding too late to rising prices. “If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the [Fed] will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.”
But then we received the consumer and producer price reports for June on Tuesday and Wednesday, and all the numbers were below expectations, so talk of a rate hike at the July 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was squelched.
The CPI was down 0.4% on headline, up 3.5% year-over year, while ex-food and energy, it was unchanged and up 2.6% year-over-year.
The PPI was down 0.3% over May, up 5.5% from a year ago, and on core, the figures were 0.2% and 4.7%, when an increase of 5.2% was expected on the year-on-year number.
Of course, energy prices were way down in June over May, and that rippled throughout the price report, and now they are back up in July, so next month’s CPI and PPI could be a reversal of the relatively good news this week.
In his semiannual testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, making his first appearance as chair, said policymakers have no tolerance for high inflation, reiterating a vow to tame price growth that has been elevated for five years.
“The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” Warsh said Tuesday. “And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability.”
Warsh, commenting on Tuesday’s CPI report that showed consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years, said he didn’t want to read too much into any one data point.
“There might be some that look at this morning’s data and say, ‘Oh, mission accomplished. Everything is swell,’” Warsh said. “That is not my view.”
Warsh also sought to reassure House and Senate members that he would be independent and not influenced by the president and his desire for rate cuts.
In other economic news, June retail sales came in as expected, up 0.2%, with industrial production in the month increasing 0.1%, a tick below consensus.
Housing starts in June increased 19% month-over-month to a 1.427 million annualized pace, rebounding from a 15.2% plunge in May that sent housing starts to a six-year low.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for second-quarter growth is 1.7%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.55%, the highest rate since last August.
Little economic news next week, but earnings season rolls on, highlighted by Alphabet, Tesla and Intel.
Europe and Asia
We had our final look at June inflation for the eurozone, up 2.8%, down from May’s 3.2%. Ex-food and energy the figure was just 2.1%, good news for the European Central Bank.
But like in the U.S., it’s now all about July’s numbers and rising energy prices.
Headline inflation….
Germany 2.4%, France 2.0%, Italy 3.0%, Spain 3.6%, Netherlands 2.5%, Ireland 3.2%.
Meanwhile, May industrial production decreased by 0.2% compared with April, and was down 1.2% year-over-year in the euro area.
Britain: Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister on Monday, replacing Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party.
China: Big economic news this week, as the National Bureau of Statistics announced China’s economy slowed sharply to a 4.3% annualized pace of growth in the second quarter, down from 5% in Q1 and the weakest in over three years.
The 4.3% (0.9% quarter-over-quarter) was less than forecasts for 4.5% and came despite a surge in exports driven partly by the boom in artificial intelligence, and by robust global demand for Chinese electric vehicles.
But domestic spending and investment have lagged.
Speaking of exports, they surged 27% year-on-year in June to a record $412.39 billion, smashing forecasts of 18.2%.
China’s trade surplus with the EU also surged 27% to a record $32.9 billion, intensifying pressure on European leaders to reduce reliance on China. Exports to the U.S. rose 13.9%.
For the first half of the year, China’s exports grew 17.6% to $2.12 trillion, per the General Administration of Customs.
Separately, industrial production in June rose 5.3% year-over-year, retail sales rose just 1.0%, and fixed asset investment fell 5.7% year-to-date.
The June unemployment rate was 5.0%.
Japan: Nothing of import this week.
Street Bytes
—An index of semiconductor stocks hit bear market territory Friday morning, by definition a decline of 20% from the highs. But the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, had soared 105% between its March low and last month’s peak.
Chipmakers are under growing scrutiny over whether massive gains fueled by the buildout of artificial intelligence have run too far to justify their elevated valuations. At the heart of the matter is whether the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending by AI hyperscalers will eventually deliver strong returns and sustain elevated demand for chips.
Overall, for the week, the Dow Jones fell 0.9% to 52146, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% and Nasdaq 2.9%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.91% 2-yr. 4.18% 10-yr. 4.54% 30-yr. 5.06%
Treasuries eased off a bit on the better-than-expected inflation data, but energy prices soared, mitigating the rally.
–The Iran war has shown that crude oil stockpiles, such as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), remain a key lever administrations can pull to provide relief to global markets.
But in the U.S., signs of distress continue to mount. As the Wall Street Journal reported:
“The stocks were established in 1975, and investments aren’t keeping up with the aging infrastructure, experts say. DOE [Department of Energy] officials recently told the Government Accountability Office that they are holding the reserve ‘together with ‘Band-Aids,’ and that it is uncertain how long they will hold,’ according to a GAO report published last month.
“One key issue: Successive administrations and Congress have pumped oil out of the reserve dozens of times through sales to raise funds, as well as emergency releases. But the stockpiles were initially designed for up to five full drawdowns, and the frequent releases are degrading the sites’ integrity, experts say.
“The reserve has experienced 16 major equipment failures since 2013, including of raw water and brine disposal piping. Some sites have seen well deformation and hydraulic failures. In May 2024, a well ruptured unexpectedly at a Texas site, causing the loss of as much as 400,000 barrels, the GAO report said.
“The deterioration limits how much crude can be pumped into and out of the caverns. As of December, the DOE estimated 2.7 million barrels a day could be drawn out of the 4.4 million barrels it was designed to handle, according to GEO. About 440,000 barrels a day can be injected, out of the 785,000 barrels the initial design provided for. That means not all of the oil in the reserve might be accessible when needed, and replenishing the stocks is a slower process than it should be, experts said.”
Meanwhile, Chevron intends to sign preliminary deals Friday to invest in two Iraqi oil fields and will join a consortium of investors exploring the construction of a pipeline to connect Iraq’s oil patch with the Syrian coast.
Iraq and other Middle East oil producers are scrambling for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf governments are pouring billions of dollars into new pipelines, rail corridors and energy storage hubs to bypass the Strait.
–It was Big Bank earnings week…JPMorgan Chase reported a record second-quarter profit on Tuesday, as a wave of big-ticket IPOs and dealmaking helped drive investment banking fees to their highest levels since 2021, while its trading desk capitalized on volatile markets…themes repeated throughout the Big Bank sector.
Revenue rose across all business units. Investment banking rode a sharp rebound in the U.S. IPO market, led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which roared into the market with the largest listing in history. JPM was among the lead underwriters on the deal.
“This strength is being supported by several tailwinds, including AI-driven capital investment, fiscal stimulus and the benefits of more efficient regulation,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement.
The largest U.S. lender posted a profit of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, in the three months ended June 30, compared with $14.99 billion, or $5.24 per share, a year earlier. Profit was boosted by a $4.6 billion gain tied to its stake in Visa.
On an adjusted basis, its profit of $6.14 per share beat expectations of $5.85.
Net interest income – the profit made from loans minus interest paid to depositors – rose 4% from a year earlier to $23.7 billion in the quarter, while average loans climbed 10%.
JPMorgan raised its 2026 forecast for NII to $96.5 billion, excluding markets, from $95 billion.
Markets revenue, which houses trading operations, surged 35% over the prior year.
Dimon said several risks are in focus, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.
—Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the U.S. economy was strong and that consumers remained resilient as the company reported a jump in its second quarter profit on Tuesday.
“The U.S. economy has proved more durable than expected, supported by the strong consumer, ongoing AI-driven investments across the board, and easing energy costs,”
BAC’s profits jumped 27% last quarter to $9.1 billion, with net income growth across every business segment. The results came as investors look for signs on how well consumer spending has held up amid higher gas prices due to the Iran war.
“We continue to see strong consumer spending,” Moynihan added later in the call.
Bank of America’s net interest income hit $16 billion, with stock-trading revenue jumping 70% to $3.62 billion, smashing Wall Street consensus by nearly $1 billion, driven by increased client activity and strong trading performance, particularly in Asia and the U.S.
—Goldman Sachs said profits soared 78% in the second quarter, fueled by a windfall of fees from stock trading and dealmaking.
Goldman reported $6.6 billion in net earnings or $21 per share, far exceeding the $14.50 per share that analysts had expected.
Total net revenue increased 39% year over year to $20.3 billion, while analysts had forecast $16.2 billion.
“Momentum has accelerated throughout our businesses,” Goldman CEO David Solomon said in a press release statement.
GS’s monster earnings report comes as corporate mergers, AI-driven capital raising, and this year’s unusually active markets have powered its Wall Street machine.
“Clients are turning to us to lead their most strategic and consequential transactions, which are often the genesis of activity across the franchise,” Solomon said. “Given what we see in our pipelines, we expect this flywheel of activity to continue.”
The company said revenue from its equities trading division rose 72% year-over-year to $7.4 billion. Its investment bank reported $3.4 billion in revenue, its highest quarterly figure since 2021, driven by its M&A advisory and equity underwriting groups.
The equity underwriting division, which includes underwriting initial public offerings, earned fees from several of the quarter’s biggest AI-related deals. That includes SpaceX’s IPO and Alphabet’s stock sales. Revenue from that unit jumped 130% to $985 million.
—Wells Fargo & Co. reported second-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates on higher fees from wealth management and investment banking.
Net interest income totaled $12.3 billion, in line with estimates, with Wells sticking with its full-year forecast of roughly $50 billion.
“We are clearly benefiting from the broad-based economic strength we see in the U.S., but the investments we are making and our improved operating discipline also drove strong momentum in our key business metrics across all operating segments,” CEO Charlie Scharf said in a statement.
Net income for the quarter through June rose 17% to $6.4 billion, or $2 a share. The Street was at $1.71. Revenue climbed 9% to $22.6 billion.
Wells Fargo, released last year from a long-term regulatory penalty that capped its asset growth after a series of scandals, is reworking its business mix and growing financing for its trading clients in an effort to expand relationships that can bolster future earnings.
“After years of not being on a level playing field with our competitors because we couldn’t grow our balance sheet, we are carefully deploying capital to grow and support our clients by taking risks that we think are prudent through economic cycles, not just the strong environment we see today,” Scharf said.
Investment banking fees increased 35% to $939 million.
Executives have said they’ll continue to keep a lid on costs and look for ways to operate more efficiently. Second-quarter noninterest expenses were $13.7 billion, better than expected, while total headcount dropped 7% from a year earlier to 197,466.
—Citigroup beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit after reporting its highest quarterly revenue in a decade on Tuesday, as the bank benefited from robust trading income in a volatile market and strong investment banking fees.
Volatile markets typically help lift trading revenues at big banks, and lighter regulation under the Trump administration has bolstered confidence among executives to pursue acquisitions, while the scramble for AI-related assets has added momentum to dealmaking activity.
Global M&A volumes have already surpassed $3 trillion this year, with Citi advising on deals worth over $300 billion, per Dealogic data. In the second quarter, Citi was among the underwriters of SpaceX’s IPO and advised the $44.8 billion combination of Unilever and McCormick’s food businesses. Its revenues from investment banking jumped 44% in the quarter to $1.55 billion. Total banking revenues rose 34% to $1.92 billion, despite a 4% fall in corporate lending revenue.
Citi’s revenue in equities and fixed-income markets jumped 45% and 7%, respectively, from a year earlier.
Net interest income of $17.13 billion exceeded forecasts.
—Morgan Stanley beat Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit, driven by strong mergers and acquisitions activity, while macroeconomic uncertainty resulted in record trading revenue at the investment bank.
Mega-deals are up 48% from a year ago and marking the highest first-half total in its history. Morgan Stanley also served as a lead underwriter for the record $2 trillion market debut of SpaceX. MS was also a lead underwriter on chipmaker Cerebras’ IPO.
Morgan Stanley’s investment banking revenue soared to $2.44 billion from $1.54 billion a year ago, boosted by a rise in M&A advisory fees.
Morgan Stanley’s wealth management revenue rose to a record $8.9 billion in the quarter, up from $7.8 billion a year ago.
Net income came in at $5.58 billion, or $3.46 per share, with the Street at $2.94 per share.
Net revenue came in at $21.35 billion in the three months ended on June 30, compared to $16.79 billion in the year earlier.
—BlackRock beat Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit and the shares surged, as a stock market rally lifted the value of client assets and investors poured money into its exchange-traded funds.
Assets managed by the New York-based firm rose to a record $15.34 trillion in the quarter, up from $12.53 trillion a year earlier.
The world’s largest money manager pulled in $192 billion of client cash during the period, underpinned by strength in its iShares ETF franchise. That compares with $68 billion a year earlier and $130 billion in the first quarter.
—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 36% jump in quarterly sales, meeting elevated expectations while signaling global demand for AI computing remains intact.
The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. reported revenue for the June quarter of $39.6 billion, matching the average analyst estimate.
The steady growth highlights TSMC’s central role in producing the vast majority of the world’s most advanced chips for data centers and smartphones. Asia’s most valuable company is regarded as a gauge of a global AI infrastructure buildout by the likes of Meta Platforms Inc. that’s likely to top $725 billion this year alone.
In its formal earnings report Thursday, TSMC raised its spending and revenue projections for the year, reflecting its confidence that torrid growth in demand for chips and data centers will extend into 2027.
The company now expects capital expenditure of $60 billion to $64 billion in 2026, up from $52 billion to $56 billion previously.
TSMC also said it plans to spend another $100 billion on expanding its manufacturing capacity in the United States, which would bring the company’s total pledges for investment in U.S. chipmaking to $265 billion.
TSMC reported a record $22 billion in net profit for the second quarter, up 77% from a year earlier, better than analysts’ estimates.
–Related to the above, SK Hynix Inc. now sees memory-chip shortages persisting beyond 2030, as the spending spree by data center operators stokes appetite for both conventional memory and the high-bandwidth or HBM chips that work with AI systems.
—IBM’s stock collapsed 25% on Tuesday, its worst single-day drop in decades, after the company preannounced earnings that fell well below Wall Street’s expectations, as customers shifted spending away from software and mainframe products and toward AI servers and memory.
Analysts had expected IBM to report adjusted earnings per share of $3.01 on revenue of $17.86 billion, but the company came up well short, posting adjusted EPS of $2.93 and revenue of $17.2 billion.
In a statement, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the company was prepared for a low-single-digit decline in its z17 mainframe business for the quarter, but the results were far worse than projected and are at least partially related to the global memory shortage.
“In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly [capital expenditures] spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases,” Krishna said.
—United Airlines Holdings reported second-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, and raised its full-year guidance.
But the Chicago-based carrier also warned that its fuel costs could balloon by nearly $6 billion this year, compared with projections at the start of the year.
“In the second quarter fuel expense was up $2.3 billion, or 84% year-over-year and the Company recovered approximately half of this increase,” United said. “In the third quarter the Company expects to recover approximately 80% to 90% of the increase, and 100% by the fourth quarter.”
For the second quarter ended in June, United reported adjusted earnings of $1.99 a share on revenue of $17.67 billion, up 16% from a year ago, with the Street at $1.88 a share on revenue of $17.62 billion.
United raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to between $9 to $11 a share.
The airline said diverse revenue streams contributed to its second-quarter results, saying Platinum revenue was up 16% over the year-ago quarter, Basic Economy revenue was up 11%, loyalty was up 11%, and cargo revenue was up 23%.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
7/16…109 percent of 2025 levels
7/15…102
7/14…85
7/13…92
7/12…113
7/11…87
7/10…97
7/9…106
—Apple sued OpenAI and one of its top executives, alleging the AI company stole trade secrets as part of its effort to develop competing devices.
The civil suit filed in the Northern District of California accuses OpenAI’s chief hardware officer, Tang Tan, and Chang Liu, a member of its technical staff, of taking Apple’s confidential information through various methods. Both are former Apple employees who went to work for OpenAI.
The lawsuit shows how the relationship between the two companies has rapidly deteriorated since 2024, when they signed a deal to have OpenAI’s ChatGPT work with Apple’s Siri chatbot. Apple’s new Siri AI, announced in June, is powered by Google’s Gemini technology.
Tan is leading OpenAI’s efforts to develop its own devices, a crucial strategic effort so that the company can reach consumers directly, rather than via other companies’ devices such as Apple’s iPhone.
The suit alleges that Tan emailed himself information about Apple’s suppliers and that he has directed job candidates still working for Apple to bring “actual parts” from Apple to their interviews for “show and tell” with the OpenAI team.
Apple accuses Liu of downloading “dozens of Apple’s confidential hardware-related files” by using a former colleague’s work computer.
—SpaceX abruptly aborted the second attempted launch of its upgraded Starship rocket system on Thursday, just moments after the booster ignited at the company’s complex in South Texas.
CEO Elon Musk said in a post on X that “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort” and that the company would try again “hopefully in a few days.”
SpaceX was hoping to launch its first third-generation Starlink satellites into space – although they are supposed to burn up around 20 minutes after deployment, as Starship has not yet demonstrated the ability to reach Earth orbit.
This is also SpaceX’s first Starship test launch attempt since it went public on June 12. The shares traded below the IPO price prior to the aborted launch and fell further Friday.
—Netflix shares sank 10% on the open Friday after the company reported after the close Thursday, forecasting another quarter of slower revenue gains and scaled back viewership data, fueling fears that its industry-beating growth may have peaked.
In its latest disclosure pullback, the company cut the frequency of its viewing-hours report to once a year from twice starting 2027, following last year’s scrapping of subscriber counts, leaving investors in the dark as the business faces greater competition from traditional media as well as YouTube.
Netflix reported second quarter sales of $12.6 billion and earnings of 80 cents a share, in line with expctations.
The company projected revenue of $12.9 billion in the current quarter and earnings of 82 cents a share, both a little shy of consensus.
After a strong content slate in 2025 that included the final season of its hit sci-fi series “Stranger Things” and South Korean drama “Squid Games,” analyst said the company also has a weaker content line-up this year that could weigh on growth.
—Johnson & Johnson beat the Street’s estimates for second-quarter sales and profit on Wednesday, as strong demand for immunology drug Tremfya and cancer blockbuster Darzalex helped it offset the erosion from older products.
The shares fell as sales at J&J’s medical technology unit trailed expectations, hurt by a drop in demand for its Impella heart pumps, acquired through its 2022 buyout of Abiomed.
CFO Joseph Wolk said in an interview that Abiomed revenue took a hit in the quarter following a UK study that raised questions about the use of Impella pumps during certain high-risk coronary procedures.
Abiomed sales in the quarter fell 2% from a year earlier, compared with 14% growth in the first quarter.
On the positive side, sales of its psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease drug, Tremfya, jumped 72.5% to $2 billion, with the Street at $1.74bn.
Second-quarter sales of blood cancer treatment Darzalex stood at $4.2 billion, roughly in line with analyst estimates.
—The Food and Drug Administration approved a daily pill on Thursday that can lower cholesterol levels far below what can be achieved with statins, the cheap cholesterol-reducing pills.
The drug, enlicitide, whose brand name is Lipfendra, is made by Merck. Clinical trials have shown that it can bring levels of LDL – the dangerous type of cholesterol – down to 50 or 60 or even lower. Adults not taking cholesterol-lowering drugs usually have levels above 100. It works by inhibiting a protein known as PCSK9.
New cholesterol guidelines issued by the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology say that people who have an above-average risk of heart attacks or strokes should get their LDL levels below 70. Those at high risk because, for example, they have had a heart attack, should get their LDL below 55.
Lipfendra’s list price will be $315 for a 30-day supply, and it will be available in a few weeks, a spokeswoman for Merck said.
—Major German carmakers saw sharp quarterly sales declines in China as domestic demand weakened and competition heated up in the world’s biggest auto market.
At Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Porsche, China sales for the April-June quarter plummeted between 30% and 41% compared with the same period a year ago, according to company data released over the past week.
For the first half of this year, they all reported a more than 20% year-on-year drop in China. The falling China sales have squeezed their overall profits and in some cases offset gains from other regions.
Volkswagen group saw deliveries in China down 36.6% during the second quarter to 424,300 vehicles, which dragged down its global sales to a 8.6% decline, even as deliveries increased in Europe and the Americas.
This comes at a time when these legacy German carmakers are faced with intensified competition from Chinese automakers outside of China, including in Europe, as leading Chinese brands like BYD make inroads overseas.
–Separately, Volkswagen said it may need to cut about 50,000 more jobs to match the competitiveness of rivals, its CEO told staff in an internal memo, effectively confirming for the first time that the automaker is looking to reduce up to 100,000 positions.
Oliver Blume is battling to streamline Europe’s biggest carmaker, whose profits have slumped as it faces billions of euros in tariff costs, the aforementioned competition in China and pressure on its German manufacturing network to become more efficient.
“We are currently assessing across all brands, companies and regions how many adjustments are actually necessary and feasible,” Blume said in a company memo.
—Verizon Communications is cutting around 3,000 more jobs, reducing the number of company-owned retail stores, and realigning its structure as the nation’s largest wireless carrier continue to cut costs under new Ceo Daniel Schulman.
Verizon will lay off 2,500 retail workers and 500 corporate employees, and will sell 274 of its corporate-owned stores to bring the overall number down to about 1,000, the company said Thursday.
In November, Verizon cut 13,000 jobs, the company’s largest-ever layoff.
—12 states challenged Paramount’s takeover of Warner, saying the merger would ‘extinguish competition.’
The states sued to block Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery on Monday, arguing that the $81 billion merger would lead to fewer choices for consumers across the U.S.
A Paramount-Warner combo would bring together two of Hollywood’s last five legacy studios. In Monday’s complaint, the states said such a tie-up would “inflict substantial harm” on movie theatres and basic cable distributors.
Paramount said Monday’s lawsuit “distorts settled antitrust law” and maintained that its merger would instead create a “stronger competitor against dominant streaming and technology platforms who have harmed the market for theatrical exhibition and jobs in the entertainment industry.”
–Federal and state health officials at week’s end believe shredded iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms to Taco Bell restaurants has been linked to a parasitic outbreak that has infected thousands of people in five states – Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana.
More than 30 states have reported cases of the foodborne illness, according to the CDC, which said at least 140 people had been hospitalized and more than 5,100 possible cases were under investigation.
Taco Bell temporarily removed some ingredients from some restaurants as a precautionary measure, the chain said earlier this week.
—“Moana” bombed in its opening weekend. Disney’s live-action version, arriving less than two years after “Moana 2,” was on pace to collect roughly $43 million at the domestic box office last weekend, Disney aiming for $60 million or more. Overseas, the latest “Moana” added $52 million, for a worldwide total of about $95 million – a brutal start for a movie that cost about $250 million to make and at least another $100 million to market. Studios split ticket sales roughly 50-50 with theaters.
Meanwhile, it wasn’t that long ago that Lionsgate – the last major independent movie company – seemed headed to Hollywood’s scrap heap. The studio released 17 movies in 2024 and generated just $251 million in domestic ticket sales. That figure was 85 percent lower than Lionsgate’s 2012 peak when it generated $1.72 billion.
But last weekend, Lionsgate’s contentious Michael Jackson biopic, “Michael,” crossed $1 billion at the global box office, becoming the studio’s first movie to reach that milestone. Lionsgate took on the $150 million project after Hollywood’s biggest studios passed, believing the topic to be too risky.
Overall, Hollywood is enjoying a terrific year, and summer, with an estimated $5.15 billion in box office revenue this year through July 12, up 10.6% from the same point in 2025. Summer box office since May 1 is up 6.8% from the same point last year.
And now we have “The Odyssey,” debuting Friday to much fanfare. Two weeks later, “Spider Man: Brand New Day” opens and there are expectations for more than $700 million. “The Odyssey” could sell more than $400 million.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Eight people were killed across Ukraine overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning in Russian attacks.
In the Black Sea port of Odesa, three people were killed and another three injured in a “massive” drone and missile strike, the fifth day in which Russia has hit the region.
In the northeastern city of Sumy, three were killed and 17 injured in shelling by guided aerial bombs. Another two casualties were reported in the central Dnipropetrovsk region and Zaporizhzhia, in the south.
The Russian ministry of defense confirmed it had attacked Odesa, saying it had deliberately targeted port infrastructure, “used for the unloading of petroleum, oil, and lubricants.”
But it was residents who were the victims.
Wednesday night, another attack on Kyiv killed two.
In its report issued on Tuesday, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said at least 293 civilians were killed and 1,900 injured in Ukraine in June.
—Ukraine’s military said its drones hit 20 Russian vessels, including 17 oil tankers, in the Black Sea overnight Tuesday. Ukraine has also been striking Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, where Russia exports about a quarter of its grain exports.
—Ukraine’s minister of defense, the youthful face of the country’s successful drone warfare program, was ousted on Wednesday in President Zelensky’s latest shake-up of his government.
The departure of Mykhailo Fedorov, 35, for years the most prominent proponent of fighting with drones and robots, clouds the future of Ukraine’s innovation-centered strategy for confronting the much larger Russian Army. For years he had been Zelensky’s closest adviser on technology.
Zelensky didn’t comment on the departure, as hundreds of protesters, mostly young people, filled the streets of Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine.
Zelensky has overhauled the government a number of times during the war. Fedorov clashed with seasoned military generals, particularly the top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy, but he helped create a surge of optimism in Ukraine, as his tenure coincided with drone programs long in the works coming to fruition, enabling recurring, long-range strikes into Russia and a strategy of isolating and bombarding the occupied Crimean Peninsula.
Federov then assailed Syrskiy, the 60-year-old general who oversaw the successful defense of Kyiv at the start of the war but has also been blamed for old-school tactics that have led to avoidable losses.
“Today, my task is to show what we’ve done, and to talk about the risks that lie ahead for all of us,” Fedorov told a news conference. “I don’t want to later look my children in the eyes and realize that I didn’t speak up on what’s really going on.”
Zelensky responded Thursday, saying he was confident that Federov would remain on his team and that the details would be worked out in the near future.
In a terse post on social media, Syrskiy noted that the Kyiv campaign that he led is what enabled people to give news conferences in Kyiv to this day. He thanked Fedorov for his work as minister.
Zelensky doesn’t want any threats to his leadership, and he saw Federov as becoming ‘too popular,’ according to some experts.
–Lastly, the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham was a huge blow to Ukraine as they lost a close ally who the day before his passing was standing in Kyiv’s St. Michael’s Square.
There, he offered Ukrainians reason to be optimistic, telling reporters that sweeping new hard-hitting economic sanctions against Russia, legislation he had spent years pushing with Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, were finally within reach.
For years, Graham had been one of Kyiv’s closest allies in Washington and a trusted intermediary with President Trump, who had a strained relationship with Zelensky.
Now, officials fear that without Graham, Ukraine’s ability to influence the White House could be diminished across a broad range of issues, not just the fate of the Russia sanctions bill.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 43% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 55% disapprove (July 17).
—A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll has Trump with a 37% approval rating, identical to what it was in February. His disapproval is 61%. Among registered voters, Trump’s approval is 40%, little different from the spring.
Trump’s approval among self-identified independents remains low at 26%, while 71% disapprove. These figures are nearly identical to the assessment of independents in April. While 81% of Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance, that drops to 52% among Republican-leaning independents.
–We all awoke Sunday morning to the stunning news that the aforementioned Lindsey Graham, a longtime Republican senator from South Carolina, died suddenly on Saturday night, his office said. He had returned that day from an arduous trip to the NATO summit in Ankara and then the meeting with President Zelensky in Ukraine Friday.
We would learn later Sunday that preliminary findings revealed that Graham died from an aortic dissection, according to the Medical Examiner of the District of Columbia, which found that Graham died from an aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. That’s when the inner lining of the body’s main artery tears and blood leaks out, according to the Mayo Clinic.
Senator Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) on X:
“My heart is heavy this morning to learn of the passing of my friend and colleague, Senator Lindsey Graham.
“Lindsey’s long and dedicated service in the Air Force and in Congress carried him to far-flung regions of the world. He was a strong advocate for the United States and a strong ally to freedom-loving countries across the globe. He believed in the might of America to achieve good in the world and dedicated his life to advancing that cause.
“As South Carolina’s senior senator, Lindsey fought passionately for the Palmetto State. He was a trusted adviser and colleague to me and many others, and numerous presidents and heads of state have relied on his counsel. His influence on the federal judiciary, our national defense, and his beloved South Carolina will be felt for generations.
“Kimberley and I pray for Lindsey’s friends and family, and we send our heartfelt condolences during this most difficult time.”
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darlene Graham Nordone, to serve out the rest of Graham’s Senate term, through Jan. 3, 2027. She was sworn in the next day.
A primary will be held Aug. 11, with a runoff date on Aug. 25, to select a new Republican candidate.
McConnell revealed Sunday for the first time that a fall led to his hospitalization, breaking the silence about his condition after weeks of mounting speculation.
McConnell, 84, said in a statement that he has undergone a battery of tests as doctors try to determine what led to his fall. He explained the long silence about his condition by saying that “folks of my generation often hesitate to share the vulnerability that comes with growing older.”
McConnell said he is now in a rehabilitation center and will not be returning to the Senate “quite yet.”
Republicans need him back in the Senate for some key votes in the coming months.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal:
“The death of Lindsey Graham on Saturday at age 71 is a loss for the country and the cause of global freedom. The South Carolina Senator was a vocal stalwart of the shrinking band of Republicans in Congress who believe U.S. national security requires both a stronger military and American global leadership.
“The four-term Senator was seeking re-election this year and had recently returned from another of his many trips to Ukraine. An Air Force veteran, Graham often traveled abroad to understand conflicts firsthand, and he was especially influential with leaders in Europe and the Middle East.
“He was a longtime advocate for Ukraine as it sought to defend itself against a marauding Russia. In a fitting final accomplishment, he announced last week that he and other Senators had agreed with President Trump on a bill to sanction nations that buy Russian oil and gas. An appropriate Senate tribute would be moving this bill quickly to the floor for a vote.
“Graham was also clear-eyed about the threat from Iran’s revolutionary regime and its implacable desire to build a nuclear weapon. He was skeptical that Iran would honor any agreement with the U.S. And the regime is vindicating that view by the day as it violates the ceasefire and the ‘memorandum of understanding’ it negotiated with the U.S.
“The Senator was also a leading supporter of Israel, though not without criticism of those on the Israeli right who don’t want any accommodation with the Palestinians. One of his longtime diplomatic goals was getting Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.
“The press and Democrats accused him of abandoning his principles by supporting President Trump after criticizing him while running against him for President in 2016. But Graham knew exactly what he was doing. He actually liked Mr. Trump personally. But his larger calculation was that by supporting the President he could compete for influence with Sen. Rand Paul and other isolationists who sometimes have Mr. Trump’s ear.
“He was more successful on that score behind the scenes than most people in the media understand. In the first term he lobbied Mr. Trump against such potential mistakes as withdrawing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, Syria, South Korea and Europe.
“In the second term he has been a crucial counter voice to Vice President JD Vance and others in the Administration and Congress who said Ukraine was a sure loser against Russia. Kyiv doesn’t look like a sure loser now. And as Budget Committee Chairman, Graham pushed for more military spending to enhance U.S. deterrence around the world.
“We had differences with Graham… But he was one of those politicians, too rare in politics these days, who dealt with criticism as a happy warrior. He understood he needed allies for the next fight.
“The District of Columbia medical examiner’s preliminary report pegged the cause of death as an aortic tear. But given that Iran, Russia and other adversaries benefit from his death, we hope officials ensure there was no foul play. An autopsy may be warranted. The Administration should not want conspiracy theories to proliferate.
“As Mr. Trump and many others around the world are saying, Graham was a patriot whose work on behalf of liberty will be missed. Will other Republicans pick up his fallen baton? Someone needs to.”
—Democrats and others are reaching DEFCON 1 levels of alarm about President Trump’s efforts to influence the coming election.
“All the signals are flashing red,” wrote Democratic strategist and CNN political analyst David Axelrod in a post on X.
“On the square, the @GOP would take a beating this fall, largely because of Trump’s unpopularity,” Axelrod said. “So he’s setting up Plan B – do whatever you need to do to win. Anything. Anyone who says ‘Well, he wouldn’t do THAT’ hasn’t paid attention.”
Trump’s moves in firing three of the four commissioners on the Election Assistance Commission, his placement of Bill Pulte as interim Director of National Intelligence, with the charge of focusing on election security issues, Trump’s executive order on mail-in voting, his prioritization of the SAVE Act, which is all about voter suppression, and his non-stop claims of election fraud and 2020…all are part of the process heading to November.
Saturday, the president fired off some of the following on Truth Social….
Sat., 3:16 PM:
“It’s incredible! I win the Election IN A LANDSLIDE against the entire Dumocrat Party, and almost 100% negative news – I won 86% of the Counties in America, 2,750 to 525, won the Electoral College, 312 to 226, was the first Republican in decades to win the Popular Vote, and decisively won all seven Swing States, all 50 States shifted toward the Republican Party for the first time, EVER – and I had to run against not one Candidate, but two, Sleepy Joe and Kamala, which has never happened before, against almost 100% negative press and Fake News, all of them willing to do anything that I lose – and yet especially Maggot Hagerman [sic], one of the most unattractive people in the News ‘Business,’ and her lightweight assistant, Jonathan Swan, and The Failing New York Times itself, which spends all of its energy on negative stories about me. All I do is WIN, after against all odds but, after the Big Election Success, there’s no, ‘Gee, he won, he did a great job!’ There’s no saying, ‘Maybe we were wrong about him, the people were right’ or, maybe, ‘Congratulations, we wish you Great Success for our Country!’ No, but after I won the Election FOR THE THIRD TIME, the same people start immediately, all over again – The Failing New York Times, The LOST ITS WAY Wall Street Journal, MSDNC (They changed their name to MSNOW because nobody was watching!), Ignorant CNN, with some of the Worst No Name Anchors in History, and all three Fake Networks, ABC, CBS, NBC. All of their Readership, Ratings, and Viewership, are ‘tanking’ because the Public understands they are, as I have said right from the beginning, ‘FAKE NEWS!’ They have no credibility, or it would have been impossible for me to win with only bad stories, especially in a Historic Landslide… Isn’t it time that they say, ‘We give up, we can’t beat him, there seems nothing we can do.’ Isn’t it time they say, ‘TRUMP IS THE BEST POLITICAL ATHLETE OF ALL TIME! CONGRATULATIONS, MR. PRESIDENT. YOU HAVE BEATEN US FOR 10 YEARS, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO WASTE OUR TIME FIGHTING YOU ANY LONGER. WE CAN’T WIN. DO A GREAT JOB, SIR, RUNNING OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!’”
Sat, 4:54 PM:
With only bad Press and Fake News, I won the Presidential Election IN A LANDSLIDE. Therefore, the Media has NO CREDIBILITY! If it did, that Historic Win would not have been possible. I want them to gain the Respect which they have so sadly lost, and help, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trump then announced he was giving a primetime address Thursday night, telling reporters Tuesday that he will be announcing “big news” and that the focus of the speech will be on voting machines and election integrity.
“It’s really big news. It’s really, really big news, and our country has to shape up,” Trump said about the upcoming address. “What we’re going to be talking about Thursday, it doesn’t get bigger because without free and fair elections, you don’t have a country.”
–Related to the above, Jay Clayton, the administration’s nominee for director of national intelligence, faced question Wednesday on election security and his commitment to keep the agency free of political interference, during a confirmation hearing that was rescheduled weeks after being abruptly scuttled by the president.
Clayton’s appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee began in the morning. If confirmed, he would replace Bill Pulte, the Trump loyalist who has temporarily held the role.
Multiple Democrats pressed Clayton on his view of election security and under questioning from Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), the committee’s top Democrat, Clayton said he was not an “election denier” and that Joe Biden had been “certified” as president. Though when pressed repeatedly by multiple Democrats, Clayton refused to say that Biden “won” the election.
It was embarrassing.
—Last Friday, the Trump administration issued subpoenas to several journalists for the New York Times, after the news outlet reported this week on security concerns involving President Trump’s new Qatari-donated Air Force One.
The subpoenas – which seek to force the reporters to testify before a federal grand jury in Manhattan on Wednesday – were an extraordinary escalation in President Trump’s efforts to threaten and intimidate independent news organizations.
In some cases, the subpoenas were delivered by federal agents who showed up at reporters’ homes.
The Times denounced the administration’s actions.
The Times journalists who received subpoenas reported a week ago Wednesday that Trump had departed Turkey on the old Air Force Once as a security precaution at the urging of the Secret Service. On Thursday, the Times reported that the new Air Force One, a Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8, lacked some of the advanced security features of the older aircraft, including antimissile capabilities. Both articles cited sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.
—A federal judge on Monday denounced President Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS as an improper attempt to “manipulate” the court process and legitimize a controversial deal that afforded him significant tax protections and sought to establish a nearly $1.8 billion fund for alleged victims of politicized prosecutions.
In a blistering ruling, U.S. District Judge Kathleen M. Williams suggested that Trump’s attorneys and top Justice Department officials who signed off on that agreement could face professional sanctions. She barred them from citing any provision of their private resolution in future official proceedings.
“In sum,” the judge wrote, “the facts before this Court demonstrate that there was never adverseness between the Parties; there was never a case or controversy; and there was never a question as to who would prevail.”
—An Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed a Maine motorist on Monday, marking at least the ninth death since the start of the Trump administration’s mass deportations campaign.
Earlier, a man was shot and killed in Houston, both after agents tried to stop their vehicles, according to the Dept. of Homeland Security.
The Trump administration then ordered ICE officers to halt most vehicle stops while carrying out operations across the country, according to various reports.
Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine), running for re-election, said in a statement that the shooting in Biddeford raised important questions, and that she had urged Markwayne Mullin, the Homeland Security Secretary, to “cease all non-urgent vehicle stops.”
But then President Trump posted on Truth Social early Wednesday that ICE is “doing a GREAT job, one that has to be done,” and that “we must be strong, tough and smart and we CANNOT give up one of ICE’s most important and effective Crime Fighting tools, THE TRAFFIC STOP!” Trump said. “Once we do, we are playing right into the criminal’s hands.”
In Florida on Tuesday, a third man in roughly a week died during an encounter with immigration officers. This time, a 28-year-old man was killed after he was hit by a tractor trailer while running from ICE and other federal officers, authorities said.
—Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said South Central Texas should expect “life threatening catastrophic floods” through Thursday, and then the rain finally shifted west.
Abbott said the state was “dealing with and responding to a flood that is likely going to break records in Texas history.”
“I want to give you a comparison,” the governor said Wednesday evening after meeting with public safety and emergency management officials in Austin. “The Fourth of July floods last year had rainfall of 20.29 inches. The expected rainfall during this rainstorm is expected to be more than 30 inches.”
Thursday morning, parts of Kerr and Uvalde counties were issued flash flood emergencies after torrential rain. A shelter-in-place order was in effect for the city of Kerrville.
At least two people died in the flooding.
–The other big weather issue for much of the country was the smoke from Canada’s wildfires. On Wednesday, Toronto’s air quality ranked the worst among major cities globally. Portions of northern Minnesota (such as Duluth) saw dangerous levels of air quality. You don’t want the fine particles finding their way into your lungs.
—The House voted 308-117 to make daylight saving time permanent year-round, which would fundamentally alter how Americans experience winter weather and safety conditions. While those living on the eastern edges of time zones would benefit from an extra hour of afternoon solar radiation and peak warming to melt ice before evening refreezing sets in, experts say that those on the western edges cold face a more concerning reality, one in which winter sunrises are pushed back until nearly 9 a.m., leading to potentially dangerous commutes and school dropoffs.
I have to admit that I totally forgot that the country tried permanent daylight saving time just over 50 years ago, in 1974. While the move began with overwhelming public support, the policy became deeply unpopular after just one winter of dangerously late sunrises and was scrapped within two years.
But the “Sunshine Protection Act” faces an uncertain future in the Senate.
Here in the New York City area, we began to get the smoke Wednesday and it was particularly bad Thursday, though it shouldn’t be an issue for Sunday’s World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini!
God bless America.
—
Gold $4010…Silver $56.10
Oil (WTI) $82.10…Brent $87.65
Bitcoin: $64,110 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.98; Diesel: $5.05 [$3.16 – $3.73 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 7/13-7/17
Dow Jones -0.9% [52146]
S&P 500 -1.6% [7457]
S&P MidCap -0.1%
Russell 2000 -0.6%
Nasdaq -2.9% [25520]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-7/17/26
Dow Jones +8.5%
S&P 500 +8.9%
S&P MidCap +14.3%
Russell 2000 +19.3%
Nasdaq +9.8%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
