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Edition 1,434
I couldn’t have been the only American this week who found himself thinking multiple times a day, ‘What the hell are we doing? What is President Trump doing? This is not America. This is not who we are.’
In the span of a week, Trump has trashed years of energy sanctions on Russia in a bid to lower energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, pressured Ukraine to quit bombing Russian oil refineries and suggested President Zelensky step aside as leader of his democratic country.
Trump is flat-out siding with a murderous thug who takes pleasure in bombing civilians, a war criminal who should, at best, be serving his remaining days in solitary confinement in some hellhole, eating gruel.
I cover it all in detail below. But for now….
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Another day, another worry that President Trump is trying to coerce Ukraine into an ugly ‘peace’ deal with Russia on Vladimir Putin’s terms. Wednesday’s drama concerned alleged new limits on Ukraine’s ability to use Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network for defense against Russia’s attacks.
“Starlink data is essential for thwarting Russian advances at the front. Mr. Musk’s SpaceX has ‘implemented speed limits for Starlink terminals while in motion,’ Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Wednesday. He said the new restrictions apply to weapons traveling at 100 miles per hour or more that use SpaceX’s Starshield, which provides services for government and military users.
“Our sources on the battlefield confirmed the throttling, and Ukraine was caught by surprise. ‘It is clear that this action cannot be a coincidence and is related to the current political situation,’ Mr. Beskrestnov said on Telegram.
“The throttling would limit Ukraine’s ability to use its drones to intercept enemy drones. Ukraine is already barred from using Starlink in Russia.
“And Mr. Putin is taking brutal advantage of Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptors. Tuesday night alone Russia attacked with some 39 ballistic missiles. Some 600,000 Ukrainians were left without power, which would be a human disaster in the looming winter.
“Ukraine relies on early notice from Western partners about the Russian strikes to issue air alerts and ensure civilians have enough time to get to shelter. But in recent days it has also sometimes not received a warning before Russian missile launches.
“Mr. Musk said later in the day on X.com that the Starshield systems ‘are owned and controlled by the U.S. government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately POTUS.’….
“Later in the day, Ukraine’s former Minister of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov, tweeted that some higher Starshield speeds had been restored*. Was it merely a technical glitch, or did the White House try to send a message to Mr. Zelensky and then think better of it after it was publicized?
“We don’t know, but we do know that Mr. Trump is increasingly taking the side of Mr. Putin and his invading forces. If Starlink is throttled, it will be even worse than his deal to buy Russian diesel oil last weekend. Don’t do it, Mr. President.”
*Trump told reporters today he wasn’t responsible for the temporary blockage. Reuters reported yesterday the order came out of the White House.
Republican Congressman Don Bacon (Neb.) is among those in the party who have had it with Trump.
“Our President has become Neville Chamberlain,” Bacon wrote in a post on X, referring to the former British prime minister who practiced appeasement with Adolf Hitler.
“We need a Churchill,” Bacon added, while sharing a post of Trump’s criticisms of President Zelensky.
“Putin has repeatedly shown that he responds to pressure, not goodwill,” wrote Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tx.) in a bipartisan letter to the president Thursday.
McCaul told the New York Post: “Putin’s disdain for peace couldn’t be clearer. A full and faithful implementation of our [sanctions bill – the Lindsey Graham Act] is required to cripple his war machine and finally bring him to the negotiating table.”
Thomas L. Friedman / New York Times
“I have never believed that Trump was somehow an agent of Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, or in his pay. It is much worse. He simply does not cherish democracy. He cherishes money. And he has no problem selling out the first for the second. When he acts in his own commercial interests, that’s his personal business. When he uses the American presidency to make a buck, it is our collective shame.
“There is simply no core American value Trump will not sell out. Desperate to lower diesel prices, which are hurting Republicans in the midterms, Trump actually made a deal to import diesel fuel from Russia, even though it offers a potential windfall for the Kremlin so it can bomb Ukraine harder – and it is unlikely to help lower prices or increase supplies much at all. Worse, his aides then asked Ukraine to refrain from attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, without Trump making the same demand of Putin regarding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. It makes me sick to my stomach to even type this.” [Ed. ditto yours truly.]
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Oct. 16…$101.40
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, Oct. 16…regular $4.32; diesel $6.32
As it went down day-by-day in the Iran War….
Saturday, the Iran-backed Houthi militia attacked Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in the capital, Riyadh, killing at least 13 and wounding some 300. [The death toll was then revised later to 18.] It was the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war began in February.
Repeated, deadly Houthi attacks on the same airport have struck at the heart of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitions to turn the city into a global travel and business hub, threatening to disrupt major international events planned for the coming weeks.
Across the border in Yemen, Saudi war planes have been waging a deadly bombing campaign against the Houthis who say that the country has been subjected to hundreds of airstrikes.
A senior Houthi official said the group carried out the attack “so that the world understands that airports, seaports, wedding and mourning halls, hospitals, and markets in Yemen are civilian facilities that must not be targeted or harmed – and that the same rules that apply to these facilities in Yemen must also apply to their counterparts everywhere else,” he said.
President Trump told reporters the United States would “make a decision” about possibly intervening in the conflict, without offering further detail.
King Khalid airport was then hit again, Sunday, killing one person. The Houthis warned airlines and passengers against using Saudi airports and airspace.
The group said they had targeted the airport with a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. They also attacked oil facilities and Dammam airport in eastern Saudi Arabia.
President Trump on Truth Social, late Mon. PM:
“I see so many comments from the Radical Left Morons and Lunatics that China and Russia are helping the ‘wonderful’ Islamic Republic of Iran. If they are, it’s at a very low level, but I don’t believe they are at all. They have too much to lose, and we would know about it, and know about it very fast!”
This is nuts. Trump said in July he trusted China and Russia not to help Tehran in the Iran war, but warned that if they did get involved ‘it would be very bad for them.’
Trump has previously described Chinese President Xi and Vladimir Putin as “neutral” during the war.
Moscow and Beijing maintain close ties with Tehran. Russia has said the Iran war could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Beijing has condemned Washington’s attacks on Tehran as a brazen violation of Iran’s sovereignty.
Tuesday, Trump on Truth Social:
“The Houthis are behaving very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when we bombed the HELL out of them and, at their request, stopped. They’ve been silent for a long time, but now they’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World’s Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections – NOT NICE. Somebody should explain to them that I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE, but I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Tuesday and Wednesday, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks across Saudi Arabia, targeting several cities, as oil giant Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in the east of the kingdom was hit, causing a small fire, no reported injuries.
At the same time, Iran is escalating attacks on ships crossing the Strait in the Persian Gulf, threatening a recovery in oil supplies, though oil is getting through.
Bloomberg reported earlier this week that 26 ships had been attacked in the month of October thus far, a far greater number than September, while the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency said 12 had been attacked between October 5 and 11, the largest number of weekly strikes reported since the war with Iran began. The previous week saw 10 ships reporting attacks.
Six of the vessels were struck last Sunday, according to the UKMTO – a one-day high.
As the number of strikes has risen, the recovery in oil shipments through the Strait seen last month has slowed, industry data suggests.
One cargo vessel was hit, set ablaze and sank. The crew of 21 was rescued.
—The head of Britain’s MI5 spy agency said Iran is trying to hit military sites in the UK, and the suspected plot to attack a U.S.-run military air base (RAF Fairford) in September is “not unique.”
Ken McCallum, who leads the UK’s domestic security service, said Tehran is seeking to intensify its attacks in Britain beyond the traditional targets of Iranians opposed to the country’s Islamic authorities.
That has included arson and sabotage attacks on Jewish sites that Britain says were carried out by Iranian proxies.
McCallum said another “major shift this year has been Iranian ambitions to come at harder targets, like military sites.”
—
Wall Street and the Economy
It was all about the inflation data this week. Wednesday, the consumer price index for September came in hotter than expected, up 0.6% and 3.7% year-over-year on headline, the latter figure well above consensus, while ex-food and energy it was up 0.3% and 2.6%, both a tick higher than expected. The 0.3% print initially spooked the bond market.
The next day we had producer prices for the month, and they, too, were hot, above expectations across the board. On headline, up 1.3%, 6.3% year-over-year; on core, 0.7% and 5.0%.
Not good, sports fans. Back to CPI, the 3.7% on headline is far higher than the latest average hourly wage gain of 3.0%.
And while Republicans talk about the inflation under Joe Biden, which on CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, the fact is it was down to 3.0% in January 2025, when Trump took office for his second term.
At a rally Tuesday in Wasilla, Alaska, that I watched, President Trump literally said, “Biden had inflation of 19%…19%!”
Not quite, Mr. President.
Meanwhile, when looking at the individual components of the CPI report, yes, the bulk of the increase on headline inflation was energy, with gasoline rising 9.1% in September, representing half of the monthly all items increase. [Gasoline is up 34.2% from a year ago.]
But shelter is up 3.2% year-over-year, apparel 3.4%.
Airlines fares are up 22.4% from a year ago, though motor vehicle insurance is down 5%, after skyrocketing for years.
‘Food,’ including ‘food at home,’ has stabilized, up 2.5% and 1.8% Y/Y, respectively. But that doesn’t seem to be the case at the grocery store, at least in my neck of the woods. And coffee is up 7.1% from a year ago. [Bank of America strategists believe ‘food at home’ is about to soar, perhaps to double digits over the next six months, as the impact of record-high diesel gradually works its way through the distribution chain. And other input costs have been rising.]
So, with the above in mind and the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting of Oct. 27-28, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in comments at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok, did nothing to dispel market expectations that the FOMC will hold interest rates steady.
In a moderated discussion Friday morning, Warsh made no remarks on monetary policy or his outlook for the U.S. economy, apart from reiterating that the Fed will deliver price stability.
“We made very clear that we would deliver price stability, and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago,” Warsh said. “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.”
A few key Fed officials in recent weeks reiterated that additional rate hikes may be needed, but emphasized they have time to gather economic data before acting again.
I’ve been adamant for months that the Fed would not raise rates a week before the midterm elections, regardless of how hawkish the data is. They’ll move again in December.
There was other economic news this week…September retail sales came in much stronger than forecast, 0.8%, 0.9% ex-autos.
September existing home sales in the United States rose by 1.5% from the two-year low in the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.99 million units, slightly ahead of expectations.
But sales were down 2.2% year-over-year.
“Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers.”
Meanwhile, the rise in mortgage rates has pushed many buyers out of the market.
The median existing-home price in September rose 1.3% from a year earlier, to $417,500, NAR said.
September industrial production was up 0.7%, 2.2% year-over-year.
Next week is a light one on the data front.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of third-quarter growth is 3.6%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was unchanged at 7.40%.
—The aforementioned International Monetary Fund issued its latest global growth forecast, noting the global economy has been subjected to an exceptional sequence of events. The pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to global supply chains; wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with the consequent sharp increases in the prices of energy and other commodities; and significant changes in trade barriers and trading relations have tested the resilience of households, firms, financial markets, and governments.
Yet, despite this barrage of shocks, the global economy has held up, with the IMF saying global activity is projected to grow 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Global headline inflation is forecast to rise to 4.7% this year, primarily reflecting higher commodity prices, and to fall back to 4.1% next year. Core inflation is projected at 3.9% and 3.7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Strong investment in AI infrastructure is keeping global growth at around 3% with major benefits for Asia, but also foreshadows a “slow-moving tsunami” that could massively disrupt labor markets, taxation and education, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.
Georgieva admonished the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China, to make painful policy changes to reduce growing fiscal and trade imbalances.
“At the Fund, we believe that growth of course helps (to reduce debt), but it cannot deliver fast enough the necessary adjustments. So, some (fiscal) measures would be necessary.”
Europe and Asia
In the eurozone, inflation data comes fast and furious, every two weeks between flash and final readings, and the final reading on September inflation for the EA21 is 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August. A year earlier it was 2.2%. But on core, ex-food and energy, the figure is a tamer 2.2%.
Headline inflation….
Germany 3.3%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.2%, Spain 5.0%, Netherlands 3.0%, Ireland 3.8%.
Separately, August industrial production declined 0.5% in the eurozone from July, and decreased 1.1% from a year ago.
China: September inflation was up 0.2% over August, 0.9% year-over-year. Producer prices in the month rose 5.0% Y/Y.
And then you had September exports, which surged 36.3% to a record $447.18 billion, following a 25% increase in August and far exceeding expectations. This marked the strongest export growth since February, driven by robust demand for electronics and semiconductors amid a global AI boom, alongside a sharp increase in automobile shipments.
Exports to the U.S. climbed 39.6% as trade tensions between the two countries eased.
Exports to the EU rose 25.3%, which as I’ve noted is a cause for increased tensions between Beijing and Brussels. On Oct. 9, China and the EU struck a deal to curb Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the region, as the bloc seeks to protect domestic industries.
Overall, for the first nine months, China’s trade surplus reached $938 billion, with expectations growing that it could surpass last year’s full-year $1.2 trillion. [The trade surplus in September was $133.5 billion.]
Japan: Producer prices in September rose 6.8% over a year ago. August industrial production was down 2.7% Y/Y.
Street Bytes
—Monday marked the four-year anniversary of the Bull Market, with the Dow Jones +78%, S&P 500 +118% and Nasdaq +162% over that time (since Oct. 12, 2022).
But this week, AI debt fears dominated the discussion, as well as resurgent energy prices, and Nasdaq took it on the chin, tumbling 4.5%. The Dow Jones rose 0.7%, while the S&P 500 lost 2.0%.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.33% 2-yr. 4.72% 10-yr. 5.08% 30-yr. 5.43%
It was another wild week in the bond pits. The yield on the 10-year surged to 5.36% and then crashed, down to 5.05% early Thursday, despite the rather dreadful CPI and PPI data, in a classic flight to safety, amid the concerns over the AI trade and the ability to finance the massive debt loads being accumulated in the buildout of same.
—President Trump’s announcement that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to shore up U.S. diesel supplies was unlikely to have much of an impact, and it hasn’t thus far.
The problem: The import amounts Trump announced just aren’t enough. The initial 300,000 tons that Trump said Russia will supply immediately to the U.S. and global markets works out to about 2 million barrels. By comparison, the U.S. currently exports 1.5 million barrels a day of diesel, according to Energy Department data.
After the initial shipment, Trump says Russia will release another 500,000 tons, or around 3.7 million barrels, during the month of November. That works out to around 123,000 barrels a day, or less than 10% of U.S. daily exports.
In other words, it’s a drop in the bucket. Plus, I don’t think Russia can supply even this much. It banned the export of diesel through October because of Ukraine’s strikes on its refineries.
—Big Bank Week on the earnings front….
JPMorgan Chase fell short of quarterly profit estimates for the first time in nearly three years as market volatility and an uncertain economic outlook dampened dealmaking and reduced bond market trading activity in recent months.
Wall Street’s dealmakers had a strong start to the year, highlighted by the historic listing of Elon Musk’s SpaceX. But the IPO market has lost steam in recent weeks, threatening what could have been a banner year for the investment banking business.
JPMorgan reported an 8% decline in third-quarter investment banking fees versus the second quarter even as it recorded a 14% rise compared with a year earlier. Revenue at its markets division climbed 15% in the third quarter from the prior year. Equity markets surged 49%, as investors rejiggered their portfolios thanks to uncertainty over global interest rates and surging energy prices. Fixed-income trading revenue declined 4%.
The bank reported a profit of $5.57 per share, for the three months ended September 30. The Street was at $5.85. It was JPM’s first profit miss since the fourth quarter of 2023.
“Investment banking fees each rose at a mid-teens rate, helped by strong levels of client activity, although activity did moderate somewhat during the quarter,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement.
The U.S. economy has so far defied expectations as the labor market has held up and consumer spending remains healthy, keeping the industry’s crucial lending business churning. Net interest income (NII), excluding markets – the difference between what a bank earns off loans and pays out on deposits – increased 6% in the quarter to $24.7 billion.
“The U.S. economy continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending,” Dimon said.
Goldman Sachs beat third-quarter profit estimates, as dealmaking remained steady and volatile markets tied to the Middle East conflict lifted its equities revenue, sending its shares up 3.8% before the bell on Tuesday.
The equities business posted a 72% jump in quarterly revenue to $6.44 billion. The fixed income, currency and commodities business revenue, however, came in at $3.47 billion, down 1% from a year ago.
Goldman’s FICC business has been volatile this year. Net revenue surged 32% in the second quarter, but had dropped 10% in the first quarter when its rates business was hit by volatility from the Iran war.
“Notwithstanding the current complexity and uncertainty in the world, we remain very well positioned to continue to deliver for our clients,” CEO Daivd Solomon said in a statement.
Total profit was $5.29 billion, or $17.01 per share for the quarter. Analysts expected a profit of $13.02 per share.
Investment banking fees rose 21% from a year ago to $3.22 billion. Goldman defied the broader market slowdown through higher debt and equity underwriting, alongside an 18% jump in advisory revenues.
The investment bank acted as lead bookrunner for Intel’s $23 billion equity offering and global coordinator for SK Hynix’s $26.5 billion U.S. offering.
Wells Fargo beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit on Tuesday, but missed net interest income and revenue expectations, sending its shares down. The fourth-largest U.S. lender reported a profit of $1.87 per share, beating analyst average expectation of $1.85. Net interest income rose 5% to $12.52 billion but was shy of forecasts.
Revenue came in at $21.87 billion, also falling short of estimates of $22.31 billion.
The U.S. economy has remained on a firm footing due to heavy AI-led business investments, resilient consumer spending and relative stability in the labor market. Wells has leaned on credit cards and auto loans to grow its consumer loan book, tapping into healthy spending trends.
“While economic uncertainty exists and consumer sentiment remains mixed, our data shows that our consumer and business customers are doing well,” CEO Charlie Scharf said in a statement.
Despite expectations for strong earnings, banking stocks have sold off recently as investors turn cautious on the prospect of continued interest rate hikes by the Fed dampening economic activity.
Citigroup beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit, helped by stronger investment banking revenue and transactions with multinational companies as well as higher earnings from wealth management.
Trading profits gained only 2% over a year ago, but fell 27% against the previous quarter, mainly due to a drop in equity trading revenue.
Citi’s investment banking revenue increased 9% from a year ago to $1.35 billion but fell 13% over the previous quarter as equity and debt underwriting activity slowed.
Although activity decelerated from the record volume in previous quarters, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said the pipeline for the following months is still strong in M&A, debt refinancing and equity issuance.
Citi reported a profit of $5.25 billion, or $2.85 per share in the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of $2.66 per share.
Citi’s banking revenue, which includes corporate lending, was up 6%, at $1.74 billion. But equity and debt issuance slowed late in the quarter.
Bank of America missed third-quarter profit estimates on Wednesday due to weakness in its capital markets business and disclosed a $1.2 billion charge tied to a regulatory penalty over failures to detect potential money-laundering activity. The shares fell.
BofA’s sales and trading revenue fell 5% to $5.1 billion in the quarter, dragged down by weakness in fixed income, currencies and commodities. The bank had last month projected quarterly sales and trading revenue to be relatively flat compared to last year.
Meanwhile, BofA’s investment banking fees fell 11% to $1.8 billion in Q3. The bank had last month projected a decline of at least 10%, as it wasn’t well positioned in some businesses that saw more activity.
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank reported a profit of $6.9 billion, or 91 cents per share, compared with $8.3 billion, or $1.04 per share, a year earlier.
Ex-the regulatory charge, BofA earned $1.08 per share, missing estimates of $1.10.
So…the U.S. Treasury Department said Tuesday that it was imposing $1.2 billion in fines on Bank of America for allegedly violating anti-money laundering and sanctions laws.
The fines on America’s second-biggest bank amount to the third largest in the department’s history.
“When a bank of this size fails to meet its anti-money laundering and sanctions obligations, the consequences extend far beyond its own walls, exposing the entire U.S. financial system to significant illicit finance risks,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “Today’s actions send a clear message that even the biggest financial institutions are not above the law.”
The penalty includes $750 million that will go to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the largest fine ever imposed by the federal bank regulatory agency.
Treasury said that Bank of America “admits that it willfully violated” the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act, which requires banks to help the government detect and prevent money laundering.
Morgan Stanley beat estimates for third-quarter profit on Wednesday, helped by higher income from investment banking and strong equity trading as markets remained volatile due to the Fed’s interest-rate decision and the Iran war.
MS posted equity trading revenue of $5.8 billion, a nearly 41% rise from a year ago.
The investment bank’s revenue from its fixed income trading dropped 7.3% to $2.01 billion. The slowdown also mirrored that of Goldman Sachs.
Profit came in at $4.91 billion, or 43.03 per share in the quarter, compared with $4.61 billion, or $2.80 per share, a year ago.
Investment banking revenue rose 2% to $2.16bn from a year ago.
—BlackRock reported third-quarter profit and revenue that topped analyst estimates.
Adjusted net income of $2.62 billion, or $15.93 per share, exceeded the Street’s estimate of $14.15 per share. Revenue climbed 19% to $7.75 billion, above expectations of roughly $7.4 billion.
The results offered a fresh look into how the Wall Street giant is benefiting from its massive sales and expansion into private markets as investors navigate higher interest rates and volatile financial markets.
BlackRock Ceo Larry Fink emphasized that a major differentiating factor for his firm is size.
“BlackRock’s ability to originate and structure at scale is leading to premier financing relationships and sourcing opportunities for our clients,” Fink said, adding that the money manager’s AI infrastructure fund made its first deployment in the quarter.
The firm attracted $205.5 billion in net new client money during the quarter, compared with the $171.5 billion analysts expected. That included $78.2 billion in fixed income inflows and $52.4 billion into stocks.
BLK said its assets under management rose 15% from a year earlier to a record $15.49 trillion, fueled by strong investor inflows, though the total was below analyst expectations for $15.57 trillion.
–Overall, big banks, while raking in higher profits on the strength of a resilient U.S. economy and volatile markets that have led to a surge in trading, warn that rising interest rates could spoil the fun.
But higher interest rates can be a mixed blessing for banks. On one hand, they can earn more on the money they lend out to consumers and clients. But they may have to pay up for deposits, and higher rates slow down the economy and lead to unemployment, weighing on all corners of banks’ business.
“Inflation and higher interest rates continue to be headwinds, and the longer they persist, the more pressure they could place on both consumers and commercial clients,” Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said. “While markets have been strong, an unexpected or significant movement could filter through the broader economy.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
10/15…115 percent of 2025 levels
10/14…100
10/13…82
10/12…96
10/11…119
10/10…75
10/9…98
10/8…120
—Anthropic PBC said its Claude AI model carried out additional unintended actions on the digital systems of outside organizations, including some U.S. government agencies’ websites, prompting a warning from the Trump administration for artificial intelligence companies to secure their systems.
In a report outlining previously undisclosed incidents, Anthropic listed four types of unintended behaviors that the AI has demonstrated, including exploiting basic flaws in software to run commands, submitting forms it should not have and bypassing restrictions to access certain public data.
The company said that some of the cases involved websites run by government agencies at the federal, state and local levels, without specifying the agencies. The report did not name the outside entities involved, which Anthropic said was at the request of some of the affected parties.
As a result of these uncovered incidents, Anthropic said Friday that it has restricted some types of internet access for its AI models during the testing phase of its training process.
Anthropic then told prospective investors Wednesday its third-quarter revenue hit $16.8 billion, as the company pushes ahead with plans to go public.
The firm told investors it had achieved profitability in the quarter on an adjusted basis in a presentation in its San Francisco headquarters, people familiar with the matter said.
Anthropic is generating positive free cash flow, had adjusted gross margins of 85% and an over 11% positive adjusted operating margin as of the third quarter, according to the people.
But the $16.8bn revenue for Q3 showed that sales growth is slowing. Anthropic’s revenue rose 45% quarter-over-quarter, down from a triple-digit jump in the second quarter.
The company is set to begin formally marketing its initial public offering as soon as the week of Nov. 9, putting it in line to begin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday.
Prior to Wednesday’s meeting, a reported fair valuation for the company is in the $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion ballpark.
—U.S. federal agents arrested a Saudi national who was an OpenAI engineer and charged him with installing a hidden audio recording device in an executive conference room at the AI company, the Justice Department said on Tuesday. The case highlights growing security concerns around sensitive AI research as companies and governments compete fiercely for the talent and technology that could confer economic and strategic advantages.
Abdulrahman Alfozan, 35, had worked as an engineer at OpenAI since July 2025, the Justice Department said in a statement.
OpenAI discovered the recording device plugged into a USB port on the back of a television in an executive conference room at one of its San Francisco buildings on September 30, according to the department.
The thumb-size device, which had a microphone and could connect to a camera, was concealed in toilet paper, according to an FBI complaint. Investigators later found a similar customized device in Alfozan’s personal bag.
OpenAI said in a post that it used its internal AI models to identify the person responsible for planting the device and trace its origins.
The company said it had evidence that the employee intended to place additional recording devices in sensitive areas of its offices to secretly record meetings.
“At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated,” the company said.
—The chip sector got hit on Monday after Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said financing may be a bigger problem than chip shortages. “A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in,” the head of the American chipmaker said at an event in Singapore. They “set very extreme expectations only to find out that it’s almost like they are in a casino.”
South Korea’s chip-heavy Kospi stock index as of Monday had lost a 1/3rd of its value since hitting a high in June. The index then fell another 7% Thursday, extending its losses from its peak to 39%.
—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better-than-expected revenue outlook, sustaining torrid growth in defiance of rising concerns about the sustainability of a global AI buildout.
The global chipmaking linchpin is projecting sales of as much as $54.3 billion in the December quarter, handily beating analysts’ expectations. That should translate into a roughly 44% rise in 2026 revenue and followed a better-than-expected 69% jump in profit for July to September.
The exclusive chipmaker of Nvidia and Apple’s most advanced semiconductors offered a counterpoint to mounting negative sentiment around AI names. Downstream from the chipmaker, worries about return on investments and long-term financing are hurting companies like Nvidia customer CoreWeave Inc., which saw its stock and bond price plunge in a widespread selloff Wednesday.
TSMC also said its capital expenditure will reach as much as $64 billion, a record, this year.
—Johnson & Johnson reported a slightly higher-than-expected profit on Tuesday, driven by strong sales of immune disease treatment Tremfya, but geopolitical issues including the Middle East conflict were a drag on its medical devices business.
The company posted third-quarter revenue of $25.4 billion, above analysts’ average estimate of $25.28 billion. Adjusted earnings of $2.59 per share also topped Wall Street expectations of $2.54.
Pharmaceutical sales jumped 7.7% in the quarter to $16.76 billion. Medical technology division sales rose only 2.5% to $8.6 billion overall. Outside the U.S., sales in the division were basically flat.
J&J CFO Joseph Wolk, in an interview, said the Mideast conflict, austerity measures in Europe and pricing in China continued to weigh on results internationally, “but maybe in a little bit more pronounced way.”
He said the war has yet to impact the company’s costs, but has hurt sales in the region.
“These are countries that still value and actually want premium healthcare systems, think Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia. They pride themselves on having solid healthcare, very good healthcare,” Wolk said. “But their budgets now are being resourced and allocated towards defense.”
Sales at its Abiomed heart pump business also remained slow after a UK study earlier this year raised questions about the use of Impella pumps during certain high-risk coronary procedures.
Tremfya sales rose 68% to $2.4 billion, exceeding expectations, while sales of Stelara, which is facing generic competition, fell 54% to $716 million, but still well above consensus. Tremfya has increasingly replaced lost Stelara revenue following recent approvals in inflammatory bowel diseases.
Sales of blood cancer treatment Darzalex rose about 16% to $4.24 billion, short of analyst expectations of $4.4 billion.
—Domino’s Pizza reported third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. Comparable sales growth improved from the previous quarter, but remained weak as the pizza chain works to revive demand amid intense competition for budget-conscious diners.
The pizza chain has been navigating a difficult environment as inflation-weary consumers become increasingly selective about restaurant spending. Rival chains have responded with discounts and value meals, intensifying competition not just among pizza companies but across the broader quick-service restaurant industry.
Domino’s reported adjusted earnings of $4.60 a share, compared with $4.08 a year earlier. Revenue rose 3.4% to nearly $1.19 billion from $1.15 billion a year ago. The Street had expected earnings of $4.36 a share on revenue of $1.17bn.
Comparable sales increased just 0.3% in the U.S. and 0.2% in international markets – well below the Street’s estimate of 0.8%.
This followed a weak second quarter, when domestic comp sales increased just 0.1%. A year ago, Domino’s posted U.S. same-store growth of 5.2%, supported by the company’s value promotions and Parmesan Stuffed Crust launch.
–Retirees and other beneficiaries will receive a cost-of-living adjustment, the highest since 2023, of 3.6% in their Social Security checks next year, driven mainly by persistently high inflation.
For the average Social Security beneficiary, the COLA will translate to a $75 monthly increase, the government said. However, the actual amount for any retiree enrolled in Medicare will vary. The Part B premium, which overs outpatient care, is usually deducted from Social Security benefits, changing net COLAs.
The Medicare board of trustees has projected that the monthly Part B premium will rise $6.60 in 2027 to $209.50. You can do the math to figure out the net COLA in your situation.
—Netflix is cutting 6% of its staff, or roughly 1,000 positions globally, its biggest round of layoffs since 2022, as it struggles with slowing growth and customer engagement.
Co-Chief Executives Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos said in an email to employees Wednesday that the bulk of the cuts would be in the streaming giant’s product, tech, legal and human-resources teams.
–Shares of Six Flags Entertainment Corp. fell 16% Tuesday after the company announced it had temporarily closed some of its rides in the U.S. and Canada as a precaution, hours after police in Georgia said that one rider died and several others were injured on a roller coaster at one of the company’s parks there.
The rider died after an incident on Monday afternoon at the Six Flags Over Georgia amusement park in Austell, Ga., about 17 miles west of Atlanta.
The ride the victim was on, Goliath, is an “intense 70-mile-per-hour thrill ride” that reaches an elevation of 200 feet, Six Flags says on its website.
Monday’s incident at Six Flags happened less than a month after three people sued Six Flags and S&S Worldwide, a manufacturer of roller coaster vehicles, saying they suffered catastrophic brain injuries after riding X2, a roller coaster at Six Flags Magic Mountain amusement park in Southern California.
The lawsuits accused Six Flags of failing to adequately warn passengers about the risks to riders.
The shares on Tuesday hit their lowest level since 2009.
–Last weekend, “Other Mommy,” Universal Pictures’ horror movie about a sinister entity that emerges from an eight-year-old girl’s closet to threaten her and her family, topped the weekend box office with an estimated $27.5 million in ticket sales in its North American debut, or nearly a third of the weekend’s estimated $85.2 million. The picture sold another $17.7 million internationally for a total of $45.2 million worldwide.
Horror is one of the biggest box office stories of the year, according to Paul Dergarabedian, Rentrak’s head of marketplace trends. “Other Mommy marks the sixth horror or horror-comedy film to open at No. 1 domestically this year,” he noted with Send Help, Scream 7, Backrooms, Scary Movie, and Resident Evil rounding out the list.
The year-to-date domestic box office sales through Sunday were at an estimated $8.07 billion, or 19.6% higher than last year’s $6.75 billion through Oct. 11, according to Rentrak.
“Horror movies have generated approximately $1.28 billion domestically this year,” already 90% of last year’s record $1.426 billion and “roughly $150 million away from another record, with 81 days remaining in 2026,” Dergarabedian said.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine, cont’d: As I went to post last Friday, less than two hours earlier President Trump stunned Ukraine, and political leaders of both stripes in the United States when he announced he had struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to obtain diesel from Russia, a shocking reversal of years of U.S. pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine and an attempt to address high fuel prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
The stunning announcement was in stark contrast to a sweeping Russia sanctions law he signed last month that aimed at clamping down on the oil and gas revenues that fuel Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Trump did not address the sanctions or Russia’s war but said, “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.”
In response, President Zelensky posted on X Friday afternoon, in part:
“Peace is never achieved through weakness… there must be sanctions under the Lindsey Graham law, there must be support for Ukraine in defending lives, and there must be pressure on Russia for the war….
“Recently, there was a European decision to lift sanctions on Russian oligarchs. After it, the Russian strikes and abuses against people only increased. Just this week: a brutal strike by a Russian missile on a residential building in Pryluky, airstrikes on Kramatorsk – on ordinary city buses, constant shelling of Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, life infrastructure in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and in our other cities. Dozens of people killed and hundreds wounded.
“The Russians are compensating for their inability to achieve the goals set for them on the front lines with this terror. This year, Russia is the weakest on the front lines than at any other time in the war. That is exactly why Putin is relying on terror….
“Any easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is obvious weakness; it plays into Russia’s hands, into it killing more, fighting longer, respecting America even less, and inflicting even greater losses and damage on the world.
“Ukraine is ready for mirror de-escalation steps, and the American team knows this position of ours. Our strikes on Russian oil refineries and other oil facilities are a response to Russia’s multi-year campaign of terror against Ukraine’s energy sector. Ukraine will not burn Russian refineries if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure. We are offering America exactly such an agreement and believe that the power of the United States is sufficient to achieve such a compromise.
“Gifts to Putin will not work for peace or any benefit to the civilized world. Russia will ‘repay’ diesel with further terror and perfidy. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that needs to be ended, not prolonged. A real de-escalation with Russia is needed, and in a mirror format.
“We rely on fair support from America for our defense of lives, our defense of people in Ukraine, and on a correspondingly strong conversation from the United States with Russia. A strong one, not a weak one.”
Separately, in an interview with Axios, President Zelensky said that Trump’s decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia and allow it to export diesel was “not fair and not honest.”
“You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible,” Zelensky said in frustration.
Trump said later Friday as he left the White House for a campaign rally that he was thankful for the deal. “I want to thank President Putin. To be honest with you, we have massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and it’s diesel, which is what we want. So thank you,” Trump said. He did not answer shouted questions about the criticism from Zelensky.
A statement from Putin, released by the Kremlin on Friday, said during their call he and Trump dedicated “significant attention to the prospects of resolving the Ukrainian crisis” and also discussed “the situation around Iran and various aspects of bilateral relations.”
Russia “confirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets,” Putin said. “I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”
Also last Friday, a Ukrainian drone barrage shut down Moscow’s airports for hours, as several Russian government aircraft reportedly bringing Putin and his aides back from a summit in Turkmenistan were returning to the Russian capital.
Saturday, President Trump then said it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president, suggesting that Zelensky has not done enough to end the war.
Speaking at the White House, Trump said, “I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal,” adding that “for some reason (Zelensky) never does.”
“He wants to make problems for the world. He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel,” Trump said, before departing for a rally in Tennessee.
Trump also suggested that if he had been U.S. president in 2022, “that war should have never started. There was no reason that that war with Ukraine and Russia started. It started due to incompetence.”
Zelensky has “lost 30%* of your country and you’ve had over a million people go between the two of them, over 2 million people killed. That’s a war that should have never started. And I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
*It’s 20% that is under Russian control.
—At least 20 were killed in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region on Saturday, a day after Trump announced the diesel deal with Moscow. Three children were among the dead as Russian aerial bombs hit residential buildings.
“Today, Russia expressed its thanks for the lifting of sanctions on diesel exports by dropping five glide bombs on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia,” Zelensky wrote on X.
He said the attacks show Moscow understands “any easing of pressure to mean they can keep fighting, to mean they can keep dropping bombs on cities.”
“Russia’s choice is war,” Zelensky said in a later Telegram post, after drone attacks on energy facilities and a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. He said every additional billion dollars Russia earns from exports would help pay for weapons components, drone upgrades, missile production and the recruitment of mercenaries and that Moscow would only be ready to stop when its ability to fight diminished.
Moscow received from the diesel deal “signals that it is apparently permissible to continue attacking. And this needs to be corrected,” he said, urging the U.S., Europe and other partners to limit Russia’s capacity to wage war.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Stockholm regretted the agreement, “as energy revenues are central to the Russian war chest,” and noted that the European Union would adopt its most comprehensive sanctions package yet on Monday, with 1,600 listings targeting Russia’s military-industrial complex.
President Trump on Truth Social, Sunday AM:
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”
There were no details.
President Zelensky said on X: “We discussed the energy ceasefire announced by President Trump. Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well. We are awaiting details from the American side.”
A bipartisan group of six senators on Sunday called for President Trump’s administration to “immediately reverse course” on the plan to purchase diesel from Russia.
Four Republican senators and two Democratic senators signed onto the statement protesting the deal. They said the administration failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation to justify its decision as required by statute.
“The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Administration must immediately reverse course,” they wrote.
[The Republican senators were Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah. They were later joined by Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma.]
Later Sunday, Zelensky, in his evening address, said: “Unfortunately, Ukrainian skies have been infested with Russian ‘Shaheds’ all day today… There have been glide bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure too. A power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening.”
Monday, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski questioned whether Russia could deliver diesel at all. Citing his embassy’s reports of fuel shortages even in Moscow, and “serious sources” saying Ukraine has damaged about half of Russia’s refining capacity, he asked on X: “So where will the surpluses for export come from?”
In an interview with Bloomberg, Sikorski urged Trump to put pressure on Russia rather than Ukraine to end the war, while defending Europe’s support for Kyiv and its efforts to tighten sanctions against Moscow.
“We appreciate President Trump’s involvement in trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war. But in Poland we believe that it’ll bear fruit if you put pressure on the aggressor and not on the victim.”
Also on Monday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukraine does not deserve the “respite” a ceasefire would bring.
Zelensky, in an interview with Fox News, said 33 people had been injured in strikes on energy facilities across the country.
“We did not attack, while Russia attacked our gas stations, energy infrastructure, and other facilities.”
“I think it was Putin’s answer to President Trump,” he added.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The world misses Lindsey Graham, and never more than now as President Trump sides more decidedly with Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine and Europe. The late Senator might have been able to persuade the President to avoid this moral and strategic mistake.
“Mr. Trump announced late Friday that the U.S. will buy up to 4.8 million tons (nearly 36 million barrels) of Russian diesel in stages. That includes an ‘immediate’ supply of 300,000 tons, another 500,000 in November, and one million ‘immediately thereafter.’….
“This is supposed to help Republians in the November elections that are three weeks away. But 36 million barrels of Russian diesel won’t move prices much. The world consumed 28 million barrels of diesel and other distillates daily in 2025, according to OPIS, which is part of Dow Jones Energy.
“What the deal will do is directly finance Mr. Putin’s bloody war in Ukraine. And it may be worse. The Financial Times reported Saturday that the Trump Administration ‘threatened to cut off vital intelligence sharing’ to Kyiv if it continues attacking Russian refineries.
“In September Mr. Trump blamed Ukraine for causing diesel-fuel shortages with its long-range strikes on Russian refineries. Never mind Iranian and Houthi strikes on Middle Eastern energy production and transport. Russia helps Iran with intelligence and weapons….
“After the diesel announcement, Russia launched glide bombs Saturday at a residential area of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 20, including three children. Without a complete cease-fire, Russia will continue to torment Ukrainian civilians.
“The strategic turn here is hard to understand. Only last month Mr. Trump signed Lindsey Graham’s bill to allow new sanctions and tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Now Mr. Trump has decided to buy Russian diesel and lift some current U.S. sanctions. The U.S. has been browbeating Europe, India and China not to buy Russian oil, and so much for all that diplomatic effort.
“The Kremlin has been under financial pressure from Western sanctions and Ukraine’s ability to hit targets in Russia. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates Russian oil companies will earn some $4.5 billion from the diesel deal. Reuters reported last month that Russia plans to increase defense spending by 27% to more than $202 billion in 2027.
“Mr. Trump added to the pressure on Ukraine by saying it’s ‘time for Ukraine to get a new president.’ But he’ll have to search far and wide for anyone in Ukraine who supports financing Vladimir Putin.
“Mr. Trump complained again on the weekend that Mr. Zelensky could have settled the war many times. Yes, Kyiv could always surrender. Ukrainians prefer to fight for their independence and freedom. Eyeing a Nobel peace prize, Mr. Trump wants to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace but the only pressure he ever applies is on Ukraine.
“His multiple attempts at appeasing Mr. Putin with summitry, flattery, offers of new investment, and more haven’t moved the Russian. On the weekend a Russian official said the diesel deal doesn’t change Mr. Putin’s determination to achieve his war aim, which is to turn Ukraine into a Kremlin satrapy. Until that changes, Mr. Trump’s diesel deal helps Russia and not the cause of peace.”
Wednesday, Ukraine claimed that SpaceX was restricting speed for Starlink satellite internet terminals used by Ukraine.
“I confirm that SpaceX implemented a speed limit for Starlink terminals operating in motion last night,” said Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to President Zelensky, according to the Wall Street Journal. “Our defense forces received no warning about this restriction, and it has led to the disruption of a number of missions.”
Starlink, essentially a global broadband internet service delivered from space, is a core part of SpaceX’s business.
Ukrainian military drone crews and logistics operations regularly leverage Starlink to provide video feeds and precise targeting. WSJ reported that “Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s StarShield – a Starlink subscription designed for government and military use – is provided under a contract handled by the Defense Department.”
Wednesday afternoon, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk stated that SpaceX was not involved in the latest decision to restrict those specific services.
Instead, it had to be POTUS.
Trump said the U.S. has not stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine.
“We are helping them, and we are sharing intel,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We want the war to end, so we’re working with them and with Russia on getting the war to end.”
Overnight Tuesday, Russian strikes killed three people in Kyiv and plunged hundreds of thousands into darkness in an attack Zelensky called “ostentatious disrespect” to Trump’s peace effort.
The hours-long missile and drone attack primarily targeted Kyiv and Kharkiv, and damaged 30 energy facilities, the Ukrainian president said.
“The strike was entirely deliberate and demonstrative in its scale – Russia has never before shown such ostentatious disrespect toward the United States,” Zelensky wrote on X.
“Russia does not consider the American President’s statements strong.”
Ukrainian drones then attacked a refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region early Thursday, hours after Zelensky said the brief truce spurned by Moscow was over amid deepening tensions with Washington.
Zelensky said his patience had run out, telling the Financial Times that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries would resume. “We’re done,” he was quoted as saying.
He told Piers Morgan Wednesday night that he felt betrayed by Trump’s deal with Putin, the energy ceasefire announcement and the Starlink operational issues.
“Really, yes, between us,” Zelensky told Morgan when asked if he felt betrayed by the American president. “Our country has to survive, and we count on our real partners, strategic partners, the United States and President Trump.”
He said that the U.S. behavior “was really strange and what was not like between partners but that they switch off Starlink, so some actually crazy steps between us.”
Zelensky said that “it’s painful when President Trump chooses one side, not our side. But we are OK that he’s in the middle.”
The Ukrainian leader said someone is pushing Trump into a stance that is “not the right side of history.”
–Separately, Ukraine struck another major hub of the Russian tech giant Yandex as its forces ramp up attacks on data centers, mirroring recent strikes by Moscow on similar facilities in Kyiv and elsewhere.
The hit caused the center in the Vladimir region, about 180 kilometers (112 miles) northeast of Moscow, to cease operations and disrupted various services, the company said in a statement on Telegram. Yandex is Russia’s largest tech company, offering services including a search engine, ride hailing, e-commerce, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.
—A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has some members of the alliance wondering if Vladimir Putin is seeking escalation to test their support for Ukraine.
The attacks in the two countries’ exclusive economic zones threaten a global shipping route and have left two people dead, with at least 25 still missing. They also run the risk of drawing other countries directly into the war for Ukraine.
In the latest incidents, fires broke out on two ships struck by drones Wednesday and Thursday, one in Romania’s territorial waters.
Russia has repeatedly bombed Ukraine’s Blak Sea and Danube River ports, leaving Kyiv increasingly reliant on alternative routes to get its grain exports to markets in Africa and the Middle East. That means using Romanian and Bulgarian waters.
But as Bulgaria’s prime minister said, “There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favors Russia – and indeed, the logic points in that direction. The problem is that we cannot prove it.”
–According to a senior NATO military official, Russia had more than 50,000 casualties in Ukraine last month, with as many as 28,000 personnel killed – vastly more than losses by Ukrainian forces.
The Russian military has been trying to make offensive gains in Ukraine, sending troops into “kill zones” rife with armed drones, land mines, artillery fire and other defenses, the official said. Ukrainian forces suffered about 5,000 casualties in the same period, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
—Ukraine’s not-so-secret vulnerability in its drone arsenal? Chinese technology.
As Ukraine has become a leader in military drone innovation, enabling its forces to grind a much larger enemy to a stalemate, they are highly dependent on electronics made by China.
Ukraine’s greatest fear is that the Chinese government could restrict its access to these critical parts. It also worries that Russian defense companies that need these same supplies could be given preferential treatment by Chinese factories. Over the past two years, Ukraine has sought to break its dependence on China but cannot do so entirely, whose lower costs and vastly greater production capacity cannot be matched by allied suppliers.
North Korea: President Trump said he might meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during an upcoming trip to Asia, stoking speculation about renewed U.S. outreach to the reclusive regime.
“I may,” Trump told reporters Monday when asked if he would meet with Kim during his trip. “That would be exciting.”
Trump is slated to travel next month to the region, where he’s expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China.
Trump has repeatedly touted what he describes as warm relations between him and Kim. “I get along with him,” Trump said on Monday.
Meanwhile, at his cavernous new National Defense Revolution Museum, location not divulged, Kim was seen strolling by long-range weaponry able to strike the U.S. mainland. He was joined by his wife, young daughter and powerful younger sister.
The tour, publicized by North Korean media on Tuesday, was the latest sign of how Kim views his country’s missile program as crucial to his regime’s survival, even as President Trump proposes reviving direct talks.
Kim called for North Korea’s arsenal to be developed in a “more strenuous manner.”
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 43% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 56% disapprove (Oct. 16).
A new Fox News poll has Trump’s approval rating falling to a new low for this survey, just 36%, 64% of registered voters saying they disapproved of his job performance.
Trump’s approval among Republicans stood at 76%, down three percentage points from September and 16 points from March 2025.
According to the poll, 77% of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation. Another 70% disapproved of his handling of the economy, while 69% disapproved of his approach to tariffs and 64% disapproved of his foreign policy performance.
Six in 10 respondents said they’re “extremely concerned” about corruption.
In the latest generic congressional ballot, Democrats led Republicans by nine points, their largest advantage of the year in Fox News polling and a two-point improvement from September.
The poll also found that seven in 10 Americans said their vote in November would be intended to send a message to Trump.
As of Oct. 15, the RealClearPolitics average showed Trump with a 38.8% approval rating.
—Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico made his first public appearance last Friday after nine days off the trail, showing up at a music festival in downtown Austin to shake hands, greet supporters and put to rest what had been days of speculation about his whereabouts and well-being.
Talarico, in a brief interview, said that he had been sick with “a nasty case of the flu” and had been “home sick in bed.”
But then the rumor mills really started up…that he was in a hospital in Ohio, his Republican opponent Ken Paxton feeding them, and we were in the stretch run.
Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, released Oct. 8, showed Paxton and Talarico tied at 45%, with 7% of residents undecided.
Another recent poll, the Marist poll, had Talarico up 47% to 45%.
–Federal agents executed a search warrant at the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota on Monday, the kind of investigative step the Justice Department has long shied away from so close to an election.
The court-approved search of her Washington-area home comes after Department of Homeland Security officials said in recent months that they were investigating Omar, a Democrat, over her family’s immigration paperwork. More recently, some federal investigators have also sought to investigate other issues, such as Omar’s finances, campaign funds and interactions with a foreign citizen, as the New York Times recently reported.
Omar was born in Mogadishu, Somalia, in the early 1980s. Her family fled their hometown when she was around 8, as a civil war engulfed the country, according to a memoir she wrote. In the mid-1990s, after spending time at a refugee camp in Kenya, Omar and her relatives were admitted as refugees in the United States. They started a new life in Minnesota, which is home to the largest Somai diaspora in the U.S.
She has long said that suggestions that she and her family committed immigration fraud were false and politically motivated.
—President Trump asked Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign as U.S. ambassador to Greece following a string of damaging reports, including that she asked a Republican donor to pay off her credit card, the new White House press secretary said Tuesday.
In response to a question from a reporter about Guilfoyle’s status, Press Secretary Katie Zacharia, said: “We have asked Ambassador Guilfoyle to resign. She has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well.”
Guilfoyle, the former fiancé of Donald Trump Jr., resigned and said she will always support the president, but she denied the allegations.
President Trump, addressing reporters, said she was never a member of the family. “I guess she dated my son a long time ago,” he said.
As for Zacharia’s debut in her new position, just days after being hired, it was truly embarrassing.
She read directly from a list of President Trump’s accomplishments, her voice at times halting. The spokeswoman took just three questions before directing the press to speak with the president directly. She accidently referred to her husband as “my president.” In all, she took all of three questions, the briefing lasting less than 15 minutes.
And then we learned she did not have a law degree, even though the president referred to her as an attorney. After graduating from law school at Pepperdine University, she didn’t pass the California bar exam, and then moved to China with her future husband, where she worked at a law firm.
When asked by a reporter on Tuesday in which state she passed the bar exam, Zacharia said, “When I moved to China,” without elaborating. Apparently, a U.S. bar qualification wasn’t relevant to the Chinese firm’s law work.
But she has called herself a lawyer regularly in public appearances – and some outlets in which she appeared did the same.
Then today, Friday, President Trump told reporters at the White House that he encouraged Zacharia to “reconsider” her position.
Hours later, the New York Times reported she was fired.
—The Justice Department is investigating whether the major television networks – ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and Fox News – violated federal antitrust laws when the group briefly suspended their pool coverage of President Trump after CNN was denied access to the White House grounds (alongside with MS NOW and Politico).
Officials from the DOJ contacted networks last Friday and demanded communications and materials related to the White House TV pool, various sources said.
In a statement on Saturday, a Justice Department spokeswoman, Emily Covington, described the five networks as having “proudly boycotted covering White House events.”
“Group boycotts among commercial competitors can violate the Sherman Act,” a core antitrust law, Covington wrote. “The Antitrust Division is simply investigating to determine whether these news organizations have violated the antitrust laws.”
This is a major escalation of the Trump administration’s ongoing battles with the White House press corps.
U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, then ordered the White House on Tuesday to continue allowing reporters from CCN, MS NOW, and Politico to enter its complex, despite Trump’s attempt to ban them from the grounds.
Kelly had issued a temporary restraining order halting the ban from last September, but that order was set to expire Oct. 13. The new order, legally referred to as a preliminary injunction, will preserve the outlets’ access to the White House as their lawsuit continues to unfold.
Kelly wrote in his Oct. 13 ruling that the media outlets are probably going to be able to prove that Trump’s ban violated their right to due process before losing White House access, and also ran afoul of their First Amendment free speech rights.
—Donald Trump on Truth Social, Sat. AM:
“I settled 8 WARS, am close to ending or settling 2 more, got all of the Israeli hostages back, including the final 28, both living and dead, had hundreds of hostages, from countries all over the World, released and sent back home, won a war in Venezuela, and captured the violent dictator who so viciously ran that country, and stopped the number one state sponsor of terror, the Islamic Republic of Iran, from obtaining a Nuclear Weapon – AND MUCH MORE! Yet, with all of that I, or the United States of America, did not get the Nobel Peace Prize. WOW!”
—Wall Street Journal editorial on Defense Secretary Hegseth’s plan to livestream an execution.
“Mr. Hegseth seems to think a livestreamed execution by firing squad will be a show of U.S. resolve and deter others from such murderous acts. This misjudges the jihadist mind. It is a miscalculation that Western leaders often make about revolutionary jihadists like those who now run Iran.
“Mr. [Nidal] Hasan and his ilk understand they are likely to die. That is part of their fevered calculation. They imagine that by their violence they will contribute to the bloody caliphate they hope to build on earth.
“A public death by firing squad would give Mr. Hasan that publicity in perpetuity. It would assist the cult of death promoted by the perversion of Islam seeking to recruit more suicide attackers. Far from deterring jihadists, it would serve as a YouTube recruiting video.
“The U.S. doesn’t need to execute Mr. Hasan on live TV to send a deterrent message. It needs to win the war against jihadists around the world, which at the moment means the fight against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Houthi allies. If this weekend’s attack on Riyadh is a guide, Mr. Hegseth has more urgent duties on that front.”
On Thursday, President Trump then said the execution by firing squad of Hasan won’t be livestreamed. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he thought “streaming the execution for all to see might have been a strong deterrent for the World to witness how America deals with Terrorists and SCUM like Hasan.” But, he said, “many very good and well meaning people would rather not watch him die, through streaming, or through any other visual device.”
“He will die, as scheduled, by firing squad, but this event won’t be streamed,” Trump said, noting that immediate families of the victims could choose to view the event in person.
—Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has urged Albertans to vote to remain in Canada ahead of an independence referendum on Monday, warning that the “stakes are high.”
Polls indicate most Albertans appear supportive of remaining in Canada.
—At least four people died after Hurricane Isaias made landfall late Friday night, and about 670,000 residents in Florida, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi were still without power 24 hours later.
Two of the deaths resulted from trees falling on homes, according to local media and authorities. From all the interviews you saw on various networks and the Weather Channel, there were some incredible close calls with trees and homes.
Navarre, Florida, had the highest rain total that I saw…14 inches.
While from an insurance standpoint, Isaias didn’t move the needle, for those who were in its path, it’s memorable.
–Finally, our thoughts and prayers are with Pope Leo XIV, who underwent surgery Tuesday to remove a nodule from his lung that was soon after shown to be cancerous, though for now, doctors seem confident they removed it all.
But you know these things are never that easy and now we wait to see what his treatment will be, and if it will impede the Pope’s future travel (such as an ambitious trip planned next month for South America).
Thankfully, he’s in otherwise good health, and was known to play tennis regularly and had no reported medical problems, but there is a history of cancer in his family.
The cancer was then diagnosed as an adenocarcinoma and additional tests will determine what additional treatments, if any, are warranted.
Thursday, the Vatican said the Pope’s lung has recovered well from the surgery, and he resumed working from the hospital on Thursday.
“Overall, his postoperative recovery is proceeding as expected.”
The world needs this man. His Papacy got off to a terrific start, and we thought we’d have a vigorous pope for the next decade. Here’s hoping we still will.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini!
God bless America.
—
Gold $4170…Silver $57.05
Oil (WTI) $101.40…Brent $109.70
Regular Gas: $4.32; Diesel: $6.32 [$3.05 – $3.64 yr. ago]
Bitcoin: $81,493 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Returns for the week 10/12-10/16
Dow Jones +0.7% [52001]
S&P 500 -2.0% [7659]
S&P MidCap -1.5%
Russell 2000 -3.1%
Nasdaq -4.5% [26140]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-10/16/26
Dow Jones +8.2%
S&P 500 +11.9%
S&P MidCap +9.4%
Russell 2000 +9.6%
Nasdaq +12.5%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
