[Posted 7:00 AM]
**Iran, Iraq to follow…first…
Wall Street
The market’s run of euphoria came to a screeching halt on Friday
as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told an audience
in Frankfurt “a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances
must occur at some point” as “International investors will
eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or,
alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration
risk, elevating the cost of financing the U.S. current account
deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable.” Greenspan
then made some other comments to the effect that no one should
be surprised interest rates are headed higher and both the stock
and bond markets proceeded to take it on the chin.
Understand this is a man concerned about his legacy and should
a full-blown currency crisis erupt at least the chairman can say “I
told you so.” But the markets now face a dilemma. Currencies
rising and falling in orderly fashion are seldom a concern.
Currencies staggering out of the tavern and then sitting behind
the wheel can spell trouble. Economist Robert Samuelson had a
simple explanation this week in the Washington Post in
discussing the relationship between currencies and the ballooning
deficits in the U.S.
“First, the American economy has grown faster than other
advanced economies. Since 1990 U.S. economic growth has
averaged 3 percent annually, compared with 2 percent for the
European Union and 1.7 percent for Japan. America’s higher
growth sucks in imports; Europe’s and Japan’s slower growth
hurts U.S. exports.
“Second, the global demand for dollars props up its exchange
rate, making U.S. exports more expensive and U.S. imports
cheaper. Indeed, many countries, particularly in Asia, fix their
currencies to keep their exports competitive in the U.S. market.
Instead of allowing surplus dollars to be sold on foreign
exchange markets – lowering the dollar’s value – government
central banks in Japan, China and other Asian countries have
purchased more than $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities.
Private investors have also bought lots of U.S. stocks and bonds.
All told, foreigners own about 13 percent of U.S. stocks, 24
percent of corporate bonds and 43 percent of U.S. Treasury
securities.”
Samuelson argues that the arrangement has benefited everyone
but now we’ve crossed a threshold in that the world has more
dollars than it wants. “A sell-off could spill over into the stock
and bond markets and cause a deep global recession.” How?
“Foreign traders and investors sell dollars on foreign exchange
markets. The dollar declines in relation to the euro, the yen and
other currencies. The dollar’s decline means that the value of
foreigners’ investments in U.S. stocks and bonds – measured in
their own currencies – is also dropping. So foreigners stop
buying U.S. stocks and start selling what they have. The stock
market drops sharply.
“Presto: the makings of a global recession. The stock market
slide causes American consumer confidence and spending to
weaken. If foreigners also flee the bond market, long-term
interest rates on bonds and mortgages might rise. Higher
currencies make Europe’s and Japan’s exports less competitive.
Their industries stagnate. The United States, Europe and Japan
constitute about half the global economy. Their recessions
would hurt the Asian, Latin American and African countries that
export to them. Markets interconnect; weakness spreads. It’s
grim.”
Thus far, foreigners still favor dollar assets. Just this week the
money flows for September were released and foreign net
purchases of stocks and bonds were $63.4 billion, with the bulk
of this in corporate paper. But the Bush administration
continues to talk out of both sides of its mouth when it comes to
the currency. Treasury Secretary John Snow is thrown out to say
“a strong dollar is in America’s interests” while the White House
is in the back rooting it down, hoping to spur exports. Then as
Europe whines because its own goods become more expensive,
we tell them if you’d reform your economies you’d see faster
growth.
As for the current state of the economy in the U.S., the markets
totally sloughed off the highest reading on producer prices since
1990, up 1.7% in October, as well as a higher than expected
reading on consumer prices, up 0.6%. Now seeing as I’m in the
deflation camp for 2005, you shouldn’t be surprised I agree with
the market’s reaction in this regard. The core figures, ex-food
and energy, were up a more reasonable 0.3% and 0.2%,
respectively, and all realize October’s figures were influenced by
that month’s soaring energy costs. Meanwhile, the leading
economic indicators were down for a 5th consecutive month,
while the data on industrial production was positive.
Around the globe, however, there were more signs of weakness.
Housing prices are falling across the U.K.; not a crash as yet, but
there is the distinct sound of a ‘pop’ if you listen carefully. Five
rate hikes by the Bank of England have had the desired effect; a
warning to the U.S. as our Federal Reserve gets ready to hike a
fifth time here as well next month.
And then you have the rather bizarre situation in Japan. On
Thursday the government suddenly announced that if it had used
internationally accepted standards for calculating economic
growth (I didn’t know they weren’t, heretofore), Japan’s
economy was basically dead in the water the past six months, not
growing as we’ve been led to believe.
In China, however, spending on fixed investment (roads,
buildings and infrastructure) is still increasing at a 26% clip year
over year.
On the energy front, crude oil continued its slide to below $46
but then on Friday spiked back above $48 on renewed supply
concerns, particularly in the case of heating oil where the
inventory picture doesn’t bode well for consumers if the winter is
colder than normal. Nonetheless, the fact that oil, at least for
now, remains below $50 has given Morgan Stanley’s chief
economist Stephen Roach cause for optimism. Roach, a doom-
and-gloomer for some time, says if oil remains below this level
the economy may be out of danger and he is turning more
optimistic on China, as well, and its ability to engineer a soft
landing. I disagree with him on both.
Finally, a word about tech. Venture capitalist Roger McNamee
has been in the news lately. You may recall I met him on a
cruise in January 2003, having already been well aware of his
spectacular investment prowess, and Roger was down on
technology at that time.
Today he is making waves on his outlook for tech over the next
5-10 years. As Barron’s Mark Veverka reported, at one
conference McNamee reiterated there is ‘No Next Big Thing’
and that it will be years before something comes along to juice
corporate computing. Nothing is in the pipeline that will match
the evolution of Windows, the introduction of Enterprise
Resource Planning and the Y2K buildup, unless you consider
video games and downloading music to be extra special.
Street Bytes
–The major averages fell on the week thanks to Friday’s action,
though losses were minimal compared to the gains of the
previous three. The Dow lost 0.8% to 10456, the S&P 500
declined 1.2% to 1170 and Nasdaq eased 0.7% to 2070. Until
Friday’s comments by Chairman Greenspan, the market had been
meandering upward thanks in no small part to the good feeling
created by the Kmart / Sears merger.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 2.35% 2-yr. 2.92% 10-yr. 4.20% 30-yr. 4.88%
I can’t even begin to explain the week’s action in the bond pits.
Bottom line, we essentially ended up where we started in terms
of yields (with the exception of the 2-year…up 10 basis points)
but the ride from start to finish was far from smooth. Believe it
or not, the scary inflation figures actually led to a bond rally as
investors took it to mean the economy could slow. At least that
is the very broad conclusion. Then on Friday, Greenspan’s
comments on the dollar and his forecast of higher rates down the
road led to a sell-off. However, there were all kinds of other
extraneous things going on, particularly in the hedge fund
community, like short-covering, which is a good reason why I
like to look at markets one week at a time instead of one day.
The question now becomes how much faster is the Fed prepared
to raise rates? It could be making a big, big mistake.
–It was funny watching CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. Two
real bears after my own heart, venture capitalist Peter Thiel and
economist Gary Shilling, were on. The real estate bubble is at
the core of their concerns, as is deflation, particularly in
Shilling’s case. Someday we’ll be right, just as we were in 2000.
–Kmart emerged from bankruptcy in April 2003 and the 52-
week low for its share price has been $22. Following the
announcement of its merger with Sears the stock hit a high of
$119 before finishing the week at $105. Quite a ride for a lousy
outfit, I think you’d agree. But everyone is enamored with CEO
Eddie Lampert and no doubt his story is a great one, including
his kidnapping last year, and post-bankruptcy Kmart did have a
lot of cash. The $11 billion merger, by the way, creates the #3
retailer behind Wal-Mart and Home Depot, but the question now
becomes “Is this a giant real estate play or a sincere attempt to go
after the big boys of retail?” Others believe it’s just a merger of
two yesteryear operations.
–As expected, Russia will be selling off Yukos’ top asset,
responsible for 60% of the energy giant’s production, for about
50% of its estimated true value. So why would the Kremlin do
this? For starters, the proceeds will go towards paying off part of
Yukos’ trumped up tax obligations while the government will
eventually auction off the remainder to supporters of Vladimir
Putin, who will ensure the Kremlin participates in the spoils
going forward. Meanwhile, former CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky
will ultimately be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison for tax
evasion.
–Fannie Mae missed a filing deadline as it attempts to value its
humongous derivatives portfolio. All the more reason why we
need to hope any slide in the U.S. dollar is a gradual one.
–The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which steps in to
meet at least a portion of a company’s obligations should it go
under, faces a deficit of $23.3 billion, double last year’s, thanks
largely to the problems in the airline industry. The PBGC has
assets of $39 billion but its total future obligations to date are
$62 billion and growing. In other words, not an issue today but
the trend is poor and a massive bailout down the road is not out
of the question. [According to the Financial Times, one
Washington think-tank, crunching its own numbers, sees a far
greater problem at PBGC, with an injection of up to $100 billion
needed to fund future payouts, perhaps soon.]
–Remember how I used to say Hewlett-Packard should junk
everything but the printer business? Well check this out. In
announcing its latest quarterly results, H-P’s profit in the printer
area was $1.09 billion, exactly the same as its overall net income.
–The SEC finally brought fraud charges against Hollinger’s
Conrad Black and former CEO David Radler for using the
publishing giant as a “personal piggy bank.”
–Former Boeing CFO Michael Sears pleaded guilty to
defrauding the government in offering then Pentagon official
Darleen Druyun a job while negotiating $20 billion in contracts.
Druyun has already been sentenced to 9 months while Sears
could be sentenced to up to five years (though he’ll receive far
less). Separately, Senator John McCain is out for blood and
wants an investigation into whether Boeing should be forced to
repay $billions in contracts negotiated by Ms. Druyun. This all
goes back to the controversial air-to-air refueling tankers.
–And then you have the case of Gary Pilgrim and Harold Baxter
of PBHG Funds fame who are guilty of perhaps the most
egregious behavior in the entire market timing scandal (along
with Richard Strong of Strong Funds). Pilgrim and Baxter timed
large amounts of the PBHG funds through various partnerships
of theirs in direct violation of the prospectuses. So they have
been fined $80 million apiece and banned for life from the
securities industry.
–A Nortel whistleblower has come forward to explain how the
company booked revenues before products were shipped, the
root of the accounting scandal here.
–Carl Icahn launched one of his classic “greenmail” bids for
generic drug giant Mylan Labs.
–A further 3-year moratorium on taxing Internet access appears
likely as a result of a House / Senate compromise. The states are
worried about voice communications moving over to the Net and
thus losing a prime source of revenue.
–Former Viacom president and radio kingpin Mel Karmazin has
been hired to run Sirius Satellite Radio, soon to be home to
Howard Stern. As for Stern, who’s trying to engineer his way
out of his existing contract with Infinity (Viacom), he was last
seen doling out free satellite radios in the streets of New York,
accompanied by strippers.
–In talking about share buybacks last week, I left out the fact
that Intel had doubled its dividend. I apologize for this omission.
–Pfizer got nailed for its ridiculous Viagra ad with the horny guy
and the copy “He’s baaaack!” The FDA forced Pfizer to pull it
because the spot didn’t discuss the risks, let alone what the heck
the drug is for. I mean for crying out loud, it’s as if Viagra
enables you to defeat an incumbent for a House seat!
–According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
Americans are driving over 30% more miles than in 1990, so it
should then be no surprise that in 2003, 201 died in collisions
with animals, the highest total ever. Overall there were 1.5
million collisions with varmints causing $1.5 billion in vehicle
damage, a figure that obviously leads to higher insurance costs
for all of us.
–One fellow who has to be scared about the latest ‘positive’ mad
cow discovery (still to be confirmed) is Takeru Kobayashi who
recently ate 69 White Castle-sized hamburgers in 8 minutes.
–Inflation Update: So I’m reading this story in the Washington
Post on fur trappers and I see that a coyote pelt (used for belts)
sold for $17 three years ago and now goes for $31. Otter pelts
have doubled over the same time frame to $48.
–Of course some would say the above is rather cruel. But on the
other hand, this week British Prime Minister Tony Blair blasted
extremist animal rights groups for attempting to force large
medical companies such as GlaxoSmithKline to leave the U.K.
by disrupting their operations. [Later, the British Parliament
banned fox hunting. Animals had a lot to talk about this week.]
—
Iran
Iraq is bad enough, but President Bush must tackle the Iranian
problem, soon, before it gets totally out of control. Tehran said it
would suspend its uranium enrichment program, thus staving off
U.S. / UN Security Council action ahead of a November 25
meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
But on Friday, Western diplomats came forward arguing that
Iran was rushing to enrich uranium, at least in manufacturing a
key precursor, before the Monday deadline established in the
agreement with Britain, France and Germany.
Washington had given the European allies free rein to act as it
saw fit but they’re in a box, as is the U.S. Short of invasion,
what can the West do? Iran has played its hand to perfection and
now months and months of negotiations will unfold while Iran
basically continues with its nuclear weapons program. Of course
for its part Israel doesn’t want to see this and it’s easy to say at
some point it will act unilaterally to protect its people, but with
the program scattered all over the place, including deep
underground, the best Israel can hope to do is disrupt the pace of
the nuclear effort while further incurring the wrath of the entire
region.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei wrote in a report before
Friday’s announcement that “all the declared nuclear material in
Iran has been accounted for, and therefore such material is not
diverted to prohibitive activities” such as weapons programs.
But ElBaradei would be the first to say “declared” is just that.
Where else is Iran active? One opposition group that has been
right before insists it knows of at least one previously
undisclosed site where uranium is being enriched. And now we
have the new report where the location is evidently known.
But the Iran threat isn’t just about nukes, it’s about Iraq where
Tehran’s tentacles extend far and wide, particularly in terms of
supporting the majority Shia population and clerics such as
Moqtada al-Sadr. As U.S. News & World Report put it, “Iran
has the potential to take what is already a bad situation in Iraq
and make it drastically worse.”
And if this isn’t bad enough, Iranian-backed Hizbollah startled
Israel when it launched an aerial drone from Lebanon and flew it
over Israel for around five minutes. Israel pointed to Lebanon
and the government’s lack of control over the terrorists using the
country as a base.
So is there any kind of solution? Not now. An agreement
between the West and Russia, Iran’s major sponsor on the nuke
front, would help, but then you have China getting involved as
it’s concerned about its future energy needs. At a minimum,
Congress should adopt a formal policy of regime change to get
the ball rolling. And if you needed further proof of just how
crucial holding elections in Iraq is; Iran supplies it.
Iraq
I have to admit I thought of Vietnam a little as I watched the
reports come in from Fallujah, specifically as it relates to
casualty figures. I’ve told you how as a kid I’d hear the weekly
tally on radio Sunday evenings at the height of the war…200
U.S. dead; 2,000 Vietcong…and I’d think, how can we not be
winning? This week, as 40 brave Marines sacrificed their lives
for our country, supposedly between 1,200 and 2,000 insurgents
were killed. I still believe Iraq is different from the earlier
experience and the destruction of Fallujah and its nest of vipers
was a necessary step, but I also couldn’t help but hearken back to
a statement Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made when
the insurgency first took hold during the late spring of 2003.
There were only “500 to 1,000 dead-enders,” we were told. And
Rumsfeld is still there.
You’ve long known where I stood on Fallujah. I wrote in this
space on April 3, “I (am) disturbed that the Marines did not go in
after the contractors were killed, but history is replete with bad
generals.” I understand all the excuses why the mission wasn’t
completed at the time, but our president made the wrong
decision.
That same April column I quoted William Kristol, in a comment
then tied to the 9/11 hearings but just as applicable to today.
“What government officials (owe) the memory of those who died
on 9/11 – to ensure that they did not die in vain – (is) a greater
determination to prosecute the war on terror than had been
shown in the preceding eight months, and in the preceding eight
years.”
Finally, the U.S. is taking the fight to the evil ones and history
may still gauge this campaign a success if, somehow, elections
are held in Iraq early next year. Today, however, there is simply
no way they can be pulled off given the security situation. The
Iraqis desperately need a government they can label ‘legitimate,’
a government to rally around. Interim Prime Minister Iyad
Allawi is still the right man for this moment in time but it’s touch
and go as to whether both he and the coalition will succeed.
A few other items:
I’m an NBC guy and have observed reporter Kevin Sites since he
first started covering the scene in Iraq. Frankly, I found his
pretty boy attitude unsettling and his initial reports from Fallujah,
while enlightening, also seemed to be about the promotion of
Kevin Sites as much as anything else.
Maybe I’m the only one in the country bothered by the fact he
would go on the air without a helmet, for example, as if to prove
his bravery while all hell was breaking loose around him, but I’ll
stand by this reaction.
So Sites then happened to capture a moment that unfortunately
spoke to the fog of war in the shooting of the injured insurgent.
It’s now up to the Marines to sort it out, though in the realm of
Arab public opinion the airing of the piece didn’t help our cause,
to say the least, and it will be mildly interesting to see what now
happens to pretty boy.
As for the killing of CARE International’s leader, Margaret
Hassan, I mourn with her co-workers, her family and her native
Ireland. This was an extraordinary person and at least there were
early signs the Iraqi people took her death to heart. This is not
the kind of nation the vast majority of Iraqis want to live in and
maybe one day a statue commemorating Hassan’s work and her
courage will be on display in the center of Baghdad. That would
be a fitting tribute and a sign of a brighter future for the entire
region.
More Foreign Affairs
Israel: The Palestinian Authority has established January 9 as the
date for elections to replace Chairman Arafat and the jockeying
has begun. At last word elements of Hamas have joined Arafat’s
Fatah group for the purposes of a united front in this first vote,
while a Hamas political leader was released from prison by Israel
after serving out his sentence. The man then immediately said
there would be no ceasefire. The situation is a bit confusing in
that both Islamic Jihad and Hamas previously said they would
not take part in elections. And there is the issue of Fatah leader
Marwan Barghouti, currently in an Israeli prison for murder.
The popular Barghouti, an intriguing figure (that doesn’t mean
I’m endorsing his actions), may nonetheless be on the ballot.
But there was another issue that threatened the peace process,
that being the accidental killing of three Egyptian special forces
on the Gaza-Egypt border. Israel thought the men were
Palestinian terrorists and apologized profusely, adding it would
give Egypt the results of its investigation, but the damage has
been done. You can just imagine what the press in Cairo is
making of it all and it puts huge pressure on Egypt’s Hosni
Mubarak, a man all too aware that the leader he succeeded,
Anwar Sadat, was the victim of an assassination by forces
aligned against Sadat’s friendly relationship with Israel.
Finally, stories persist that Yassir Arafat died of AIDS.
Russia / Ukraine: The run-off in Ukraine’s presidential election
is Sunday and the West, let alone the Ukrainian people, will
finally learn if this is a democratic country aligned with Europe
and the U.S. or a puppet of the Kremlin. President Vladimir
Putin was in the country again, campaigning for Prime Minister
Yanukovych, but Putin toned down his rhetoric a bit the second
go around.
Separately, Putin announced that Russia will soon have a
superior nuclear force with new technology, though the press
treated this as news when he had said something similar back in
February. The main point Putin is trying to make, I think, is that
Russia will be able to beat any anti-missile defense system, such
as NMD which it already has the ability to overwhelm as
currently planned.
Lastly, Putin said he was willing to give back two of the four
disputed Kuril Islands to Japan, taken at the end of World War II.
Japan is insisting on all four.
China: President Bush is meeting with China’s Hu Jintao this
weekend at the APEC summit in Chile. Foremost on the agenda
is the issue of North Korea. The White House made a proposal
to Pyongyang and Kim Jong-il back in June and there has been
zero response since. Of course Kim’s Orcs have been busy all
this time, just like Iran’s mullahs, building nukes deep in the
bowels of Mordor.
But the Bush administration, under the current six-party set-up,
can’t do anything without China’s help and why, right now,
would China aid the U.S.? True, China shouldn’t want a North
Korea with 10+ nukes on its border, let alone the fact this would
encourage others such as South Korea and Japan to go nuclear,
but for now it’s all about competition with the U.S. and…….
Taiwan.
China is undoubtedly saying, behind the scenes, “You want help
on North Korea? Then put pressure on Taiwan to halt this silly
talk of formal independence.” As I noted a few weeks ago
during Secretary of State Powell’s trip to the region, the White
House is clearly tilting away from Taiwan’s President Chen
Shui-bian. And this week a Chinese official said that Taipei was
exploiting China’s focus on the economy and the 2008 Olympics
by pressing for independence. For his part President Bush will at
least bring up the issue of China targeting Taiwan with 600
missiles, but Beijing has us over a barrel.
Separately, a dispute over a simple bridge toll in Guandong
province led to a riot involving thousands, including 1,000
security officials. Just a little hint of how explosive this nation
could be if the people are given a reason to rebel against
authority. That excuse could be the coming economic downturn
…and don’t you know the government understands this. Taiwan
would then become a victim as the communists turn to
nationalism as a way of deflecting attention from the turmoil.
Afghanistan: As much as I want to be optimistic here, the fact is
opium accounts for 60% of the nation’s GDP.
Random Musings
–The issue of incumbency in Congress, with only 7 of 435
losing their seats this year, is going to become a bigger and
bigger one, though nothing of substance is likely to happen for
years. In an editorial the Washington Post labeled the whole
game the “incumbent protection racket.”
–The problems at the CIA are serious. Appearing on “This
Week,” Senator John McCain called it a “dysfunctional…
rogue agency,” adding “We know little more about Iran and
North Korea than we did 10 years ago.” Ain’t that the truth; and
yet another reason to sleep with one eye open.
–I grew weary of Colin Powell at the end and as I spelled out
weeks ago, I can’t forgive him for some of the things he said on
the issue of Taiwan. As for Condoleezza Rice, while I admire
her story and was once a big fan of hers, I have tired of her also.
Basically, I’m just tired all around.
–From George Will / Washington Post:
“Should the permanent members of the UN Security Council (the
United States, Britain, France, Russia, China) be changed?
Should France (population 60 million) be included rather than
India (1 billion – soon to be the world’s most populous nation),
Indonesia (238 million, the world’s largest Islamic nation),
Brazil (184 million, the most populous nation in Latin America)
or Japan (127 million, and the world’s second-largest economy)?
“The European Union, the product of ‘pooled’ national
sovereignties, will soon have its own foreign policy, foreign
minister, embassies, ambassadors and diplomatic service. Why
not replace France with a single E.U. representative?”
Of course Mr. Will, in a roundabout way, has stumbled on my
long held idea of a supra-alliance between the U.S., U.K., India,
Japan and Australia.
–Related to the above was a piece by the Post’s Jim Hoagland
who wrote that President Bush should be encouraging Japanese
Prime Minister Koizumi’s efforts to build up his nation’s military
in order to serve as a counterbalance to China.
–The New York Post’s John Podhoretz had the following
thoughts on the issues of Tom DeLay, Republican arrogance and
the decision to change the rule that would prohibit DeLay from
House leadership should he eventually be indicted.
“Surely DeLay and his colleagues know how bad it looks to
change the rules to benefit a single powerful House leader. But
getting the result they wanted was more important to them.
“The principle that the Republican Party ought to hold itself to
the highest possible ethical standard in the House of
Representatives – where the temptation to corruption is
omnipresent – is the right principle. Expedient use of rule
changes sends a very disturbing message.
“The message it sends is this: Party, not principle. And that is a
terrible message, because when parties sacrifice principle for
power, they begin to eat away at their own legitimacy.”
–USA Today had a good story on the continuing threat from
domestic terrorism. I remain particularly concerned about the
Earth Liberation Front.
–A survey for the Economist magazine concludes Ireland is the
best overall place to live, with Switzerland #2. Singapore is #12
(must be the Tiger beer), U.S. #13, Canada #14, and the U.K.
#29 out of 111 nations.
–Let’s face it, that whole Monday Night Football opening was
absurd. Granted, if Nicollette Sheridan wanted to jump in my
arms I’d have to put my pen down for a second, but really, the
arrogance of the networks is amazing, as is the callous disregard
for normal sensibilities in considering who would be watching at
that hour…like 6:00 PM on the West Coast. And I’m not just
being a prude about it. After all, I loved “Friends” but thought it
was ridiculous it aired at 8:00 considering the subject matter.
–Meanwhile, a Commerce subcommittee chaired by Senator
Sam Brownback is looking into the issue of “porn addiction.”
The senator, a father of five, said “that when he was a boy, the
typical kid’s exposure was limited to occasional peeks at dirty
magazines obtained by a buddy. Now, he said, pornography (is)
pervasive.” [AP]
[This was a topic addressed on last week’s “The Simpsons,”
incidentally. Bart came across Homer’s “Playdudes.”]
–Gene Sukie, 78, cashed in his penny collection…1,407,550 of
them accumulated over 34 years. The Barberton, Ohio native
thus smashed the old Coinstar record of 792,141 held by
Sylvester Neal of Anchorage. [USA Today] Now I’ve told you
in the past I have thousands of pennies myself but I’m too
embarrassed to be seen at the Coinstar machine in the grocery
store where I shop. Well, Mr. Sukie is truly an inspiration.
Darnit, one day I’m going to load a wheel barrel with my coffee
cans and….on second thought.
–This week we begin a new, irregular feature:
“If I had to do it all over again”
If I had to do it all over again, actually, just the last two or three
years, I would have junked everything and opened a chain of
stores selling only beer and poker chips. I mean to tell you, as I
noted last week poker chips are flying out the door of places like
Sharper Image. I’ve even seen ads in the local papers just for
chips.
I had cause to go back to Sharper Image to pick up more chips
and while this time I lucked out and didn’t have to backorder
them, the sales staff reiterated they can’t keep them in stock, and
obviously the Christmas crush hasn’t begun yet. So after
finishing this column, rush out to get yours!
—
Happy Thanksgiving. Don’t forget to keep the men and women
of our armed forces in your thoughts and prayers as you gather
around the table.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $447
Oil, $48.44
Returns for the week 11/15-11/19
Dow Jones -0.8% [10456]
S&P 500 -1.2% [1170]
S&P MidCap -1.1%
Russell 2000 -1.4%
Nasdaq -0.7% [2070]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-11/19/04
Dow Jones +0.03% [DJ 10453, 12/31/03]
S&P 500 +5.3%
S&P MidCap +8.9%
Russell 2000 +10.2%
Nasdaq +3.4%
Bulls 58.2
Bears 22.4 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
