[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,390
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Let’s start off with some good news…stunning news from the sports world.
American alpine legend Lindsey Vonn, 41, became the oldest woman to win a World Cup ski race, taking the downhill today in St. Moritz, Switzerland. Just remarkable. A real feel-good moment. NBC has to be thrilled, with its coverage of the Winter Olympics coming soon, Vonn, Mikaela Shiffrin and American figure skater extraordinaire, Ilia Malinin, leading the way.
Now on to the crappy stuff….
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In an interview with Politico on Monday, President Trump gave his economy an A-plus grade.
“Yeah, A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus,” he said.
“Prices were at an all-time high when I came in. Prices are coming down substantially,” Trump said. “It’s been 10 months. It’s amazing what we’ve done.”
Note: The consumer price index was up 3.0% in January. It rose 3.0% in September.
“Prices are coming down. The Democrats love to say affordability, but then they never talk about it. They’re the ones that gave us the high prices. I’m the one that’s bringing them down.”
The president then had his first real rally of his second term at Mount Pocono, Pa., launching a speaking tour to connect with Americans struggling with higher prices and stagnant wages, though Trump, as he is wont to do, veered off course frequently in his hour and 44-minute stultifying boring appearance. [I watched the whole thing and nodded off more than once.]
As in his interview remarks above, Trump told the audience, in ridiculing Democrats: “They said, ‘Oh he doesn’t realize prices are higher.’ Prices are coming down very substantially. But they have a new word. You know, they always have a hoax. The new word is affordability. So they look at the camera and they say, ‘This election is all about affordability.’”
Later, he attempted to clarify.
“I can’t say affordability is a hoax because I agree the prices were too high. So I can’t go to call it a hoax because they’ll misconstrue that,” he said. “But they use the word affordability. And that’s the only word they say. Affordability. And that’s their only word. They say, ‘Affordability.’ And everyone says, oh, that must mean Trump has high prices. No. Our prices are coming down tremendously from the highest prices in the history of our country.”
Trump also returned to a comment he made earlier in his presidency, saying that Americans need to go without.
“You know, you can give up certain products. You can give up pencils,” he said, suggesting that he was focused on promoting American-made steel while China was focused on providing multiple pencils to its citizens.
“You always need steel. You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter,” he said. “Two or three is nice, but you don’t need 37 dolls. So we’re doing things right. We’re running this country right well.”
[I watch Trump’s rallies on Newsmax, or C-Span, since they don’t break away from it, and the Newsmax anchor said upon conclusion, “Donald Trump at his best…the speech will have an impact.” Goodness gracious, I mused.]
Trump on Truth Social, Thursday afternoon:
“I inherited a MESS from the Biden Administration – The Worst Inflation in History, and the Highest Prices our Country has ever seen. In other words, Affordability, just 13 months ago, was a DISASTER for the American People, but now, it’s totally different! Prices are coming down FAST, Energy, Oil and Gasoline, are hitting five year lows, and the Stock Market today just hit an All Time High. Tariffs are bringing in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we are respected as a Nation again. When will I get credit for having created, with No Inflation, perhaps the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country? When will people understand what is happening? When will Polls reflect the Greatness of America at this point in time, and how bad it was just one year ago?”
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I’ve been talking about the Trump administration’s negotiations with Russia and Ukraine and how, pathetically, they are largely about business opportunities. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the White House has handed European counterparts “a series of documents, each a single page,” proposing to end the war and touch off a broad re-opening of Russia to foreign business.
“The clash at the negotiating table is now not just about borders but increasingly about business – and in a twist, pits not just Russia against Ukraine but the U.S. against its traditional allies in Europe.”
European officials say this could give Russia the reprieve it needs to “rev up its economy and make itself militarily stronger. A new assessment by a Western intelligence agency, reviewed by the Journal, said that Russia has technically been in recession for six months and that the challenges of running its war economy while trying to control prices are presenting a systemic risk to its banking sector.”
Far more below.
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Wall Street and the Economy
At the beginning of the week, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, a favorite to replace Jerome Powell at the Fed, said it would be irresponsible for the Federal Reserve to lay out a plan for where it aims to take interest rates over the next six months, emphasizing the importance of following the economic data.
“The Fed chair’s job is to watch the data and to adjust and to explain why they’re doing what they’re doing,” Hassett said on CNBC Monday. “And so to say, ‘I’m going to do this over the next six months’ would be irresponsible, really.”
“If we get inflation down with positive growth like happened in the ‘90s because of the positive supply shocks,” then there’s “plenty of room” for 10-year Treasury yields to go down, Hassett said.
The Fed then convened its Open Market Committee Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon announced it was cutting its benchmark funds rate another 25 basis points, a quarter point, as expected. But there were three dissents among the twelve voting members, most in six years; one wanting a 50-basis point cut, the other two arguing the Fed should have kept rates unchanged.
In his press conference after, Chair Powell, together with the quarterly summary of economic projections, suggested that the bar for future rate cuts will be much higher. The median projection among the 19 members of the Fed sees just one quarter-point rate cut for next year, far less than what the market expects.
At the same time, policymakers boosted their economic projections for 2026, estimating that real GDP will increase by 2.3%, from 1.8% before. They also lowered their inflation projections, and expect the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) of 2.9% by year-end, will decline to 2.4% in 2026. [3.0% and 2.5%, respectively, on core, ex-food and energy.]
The Fed’s formal statement announcing the cut read:
“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated….
“In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals…”
Chair Powell said he didn’t think a rate hike at the next meeting is anybody’s base case, but certainly there is significant pushback for further reducing rates.
Not every Fed official who participates in the meeting has a vote on the committee and in the quarterly projection, six of the 19 penciled in a year-end rate above the level before Wednesday’s cut – a sign that some voters backed the cut with reservations or that nonvoters were opposed.
But now we are finally getting a slew of employment and inflation data next week for October and November, as we catch up from the government shutdown. It will be market moving.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth (yes, still third quarter due to the lack of data due to the shutdown) is 3.6%. We are slated to get our first official look at Q3 in about two weeks.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 6.22% this week.
Europe and Asia
Nothing out of Europe this week.
China’s November exports grew 5.9%, above expectations, but, underscoring a widening gap between overall exports and imports (which rose 1.9% in the month), the trade surplus broke a record by surpassing $1 trillion for the first 11 months, a record for any single year and is more than the $992 billion surplus in all of 2024.
Exports to the U.S. dropped nearly 29% from a year earlier in an eighth straight month of double-digit declines. Shipments have surged to other destinations, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the European Union – cars to solar panels to consumer electronics, a tsunami of exports. China now sells more than twice as much to the European Union as it buys.
China’s Premier Li Qiang urged trading partners to reject rising protectionism, a day after the world’s second-largest economy posted a record $1 trillion trade surplus driven by a rush of exports to non-U.S. markets.
Beijing is now facing broadening tensions with major trading partners beyond the U.S., which are calling on China to do more to reform its $19 trillion economy and reduce its dependence on exports to support growth.
Factories in developing countries like Indonesia and South Africa have had to curtail production or even close as they struggle to match China’s low prices.
China’s second-ranking official pressed the heads of the IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organization and others to strengthen global governance in response to the growing number of economies imposing levies on imported goods, China included.
“Since the beginning of the year, the threat of tariffs has loomed over the global economy, with various trade restrictions proliferating and severely impacting global economic activity,” Li told the “1+10 Dialogue” in Beijing, which also includes officials from the OECD and International Labor Organization.
“The mutually destructive consequence of tariffs are becoming increasingly apparent, and calls from all sides to uphold free trade are growing ever stronger,” Li added.
Inflation in China for November rose 0.7% year on year, its highest level in nearly two years, in a tentative sign that the country’s persistent deflationary pressure may be starting to ease. But producer (factory-gate) prices contracted for a 38th consecutive month, falling 2.2% from a year earlier.
Separately, China’s economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025 before slowing to 4.5% in 2026, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, offering a slightly more upbeat outlook underscoring its view of the country’s resilience despite persistent trade frictions.
The annual assessment released on Wednesday showed an upwards revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the IMF’s October forecast, as China rolled out stimulus measures and faced lower-than-expected tariffs on its exports, the IMF said at a media briefing in Beijing.
“China’s economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years,” the IMF’s mission chief for China, Sonali Jain-Chandra said.
But she also noted: “China’s large economic size and heightened global trade tensions make reliance on exports less viable for sustaining robust growth,” urging Beijing to transition to a consumption-led growth model and away from an over-reliance on exports and investment.
Of course everyone has been saying this for years.
A final look at Japan’s GDP in the third quarter showed the economy shrank 2.3% annualized, steeper than the initial estimate of a 1.8% drop and market estimates of a 0.5% decline. It marked the first yearly contraction in six quarters and the fastest pace in two years, reversing a downwardly revised 2.1% expansion in Q2, with capital expenditure falling for the first time in three quarters as higher borrowing costs discouraged investment.
Producer prices for Japan in November rose 0.3%, 2.7% year-over-year.
The Bank of Japan meets next Friday (Thursday night, New York time) and it is expected they will hike their benchmark rate.
Street Bytes
–They were passing out doobies on trading desks today after reports that President Trump is expected to direct his administration to move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, anything pot-related surging in response.
But amidst the haze, after record highs for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on Thursday, the focus Friday returned to AI and further concerns over stocks like Oracle, that, according to reports, which the company denied, was pushing out the timeline on building data centers for OpenAI; Oracle dropping another 4% or so to $190 after hitting a recent high of $345 (Sept. 10). Yikes, pass me a doobie.
On the week, however, the major indexes were mixed…the Dow up 1.1%, its new closing high from Thursday, 48704, but the S&P fell 0.6% and Nasdaq 1.6%.
Next week, data dump time.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 3.58% 2-yr. 3.53% 10-yr. 4.19% 30-yr. 4.86%
After hitting 3.99% just a few weeks ago, the 10-year keeps inching back up, rate cuts be damned, which obviously isn’t helping mortgage rates.
Expect volatility next week with all the inflation and employment data. Meanwhile, global bond yields are at 16-year highs, according to Bloomberg data. Traders are now pricing virtually no more rate cuts from the European Central Bank, while betting on an all-but-certain hike in Japan and two quarter-point increases next year in Australia.
—Oil finished the week at essentially the lows for the year, around $57.50, amid expectations of a growing global glut driven by rising output from OPEC+ and producers across the Americas.
Meanwhile, after hitting 3-year highs last week, Natural Gas prices collapsed ($5.28 to $4.12) with forecasts for milder temperatures across much of the U.S. after the big cold spell, and near-record production, as well as ample gas in storage.
—Silver surged to more record highs, hitting $64 before pulling back Friday, on the Fed rate cut, but just as importantly on rising industrial demand, led by solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics, while mine production has repeatedly failed to keep pace with consumption, creating a structural deficit.
Silver futures have climbed about 115% this year, the best yearly performance since 1979. Gold is also at record levels, over $4300, and up 60%+, poised for its best annual gain in 46 years.
–Sunday, President Trump told reporters that the $83 billion deal between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery “could be a problem” because of the size of the combined market share. If approved by regulators, the merger put two of the world’s biggest streaming services under the same ownership.
Trump noted that he met with Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos in the Oval Office last week before the deal was announced Dec. 5. “I have a lot of respect for him, but it’s a lot of market share, so we’ll have to see what happens.”
Sarandos made no guarantees at their meeting about the merger if it is approved, Trump said, adding that the CEO is a “great person” who has “done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies and other things.”
On Monday, Paramount Skydance Corp. mounted a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, a brazen attempt to secure the prize snatched away by Netflix.
Paramount said it would pay $30 per share in cash, valuing the company at around $108 billion, including debt. It said it was going to shareholders because the board of Warner Bros. Discovery is “pursuing an inferior proposal” that would lead to “a challenging regulatory approval process.”
Paramount has offered to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including the Warner Bros. movie studio, the HBO Max streaming service and a portfolio of cable channels including CNN. The cable channels are not part of the Netflix deal.
“We believe our offer will create a stronger Hollywood,” David Ellison, the chief executive of Paramount, said in a press release. “It is in the best interests of the creative community, consumers and the movie theater industry.”
Paramount’s takeover bid brought together an array of banks, billionaires and sovereign-wealth funds, including Bank of America, Citigroup and Apollo Global Management, who are providing the debt commitment, according to filings. RedBird Capital Partners and Larry Ellision – at one point this year the world’s richest person – will backstop the $40.7 billion of equity, which will in part be provided by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company PJSC and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners. It’s this last one in particular that drew a raised eyebrow or two, especially after President Trump said he’s not really friendly with any of the individuals, on both sides, involved in the bidding, despite what he said about Sarandos above, his relationship with the Ellisons and, of course, Jared.
David Ellison then met with Warner Investors in New York on Tuesday as he tried to persuade them his company’s bid was better than Netflix’s.
Meanwhile, as the Wall Street Journal highlighted in a story Thursday, President Trump is really mostly interested in the future of CNN. If Netflix’s acquisition succeeds, Warner Bros. Discovery would continue with its plan to spin off CNN and its other cable networks into a stand-alone, publicly traded company called Discovery Global. Despite declining ratings, Warner still considers CNN a vital part of Discovery Global.
But if David Ellison gains control of CNN, they would seek to overhaul it, much in the same way they are currently trying to make over CBS News.
Trump has told allies he is open to considering a new deal for Warner in which CNN is completely sold off from the business and not spun off into Discovery Global as planned, people familiar with the discussions said. In private, according to the Journal, the president has said that CNN should be run by people he believes are friendlier toward him and the Republican Party.
—President Trump granted Nvidia Corp. permission to ship its H200 artificial intelligence chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge, a move that lets the world’s most valuable company potentially regain billions of dollars in lost business from a key global market.
The decision capped off weeks of deliberations with advisers about whether to allow H200 exports to China. Trump said he informed Chinese President Xi Jinping about the move and that Xi had responded favorably. He added that shipments would only go to “approved customers,” and that chipmakers such as Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. would also be eligible.
Trump’s decision has provoked a backlash from Democratic senators (and some Republicans), who warn of a “colossal economic and national security failure” in providing Beijing with advanced AI technology.
But Beijing – in its quest to wean the nation off American technology – has in the past strongly discouraged Nvidia adoption particularly among state-affiliated corporations and agencies.
“We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal,” referring to more advanced lines of Nvidia chips.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“President Trump said this week he will let Nvidia sell its H200 chip to China in return for the U.S. Treasury getting a 25% cut of the sales. The Indians struck a better deal when they sold Manhattan to the Dutch. Why would the President give away one of America’s chief technological advantages to an adversary and its chief economic competitor?
“Mr. Trump’s move to ease export controls on computer chips illustrates his confusing China policy, to the extent he has one. In the first term he changed America’s China debate as a trade and security hawk. Eight years later he’s sounding like the post-Cold War ‘globalists’ he denounces who thought the lure of commerce would make the world safer.
“The U.S. artificial intelligence lead owes largely to its advantage in computing power. China’s best AI chips are behind those designed by Nvidia, though how far behind is debatable. Most say it’s 18-24 months, but for now the U.S. exceeds China in AI computing power….
“The charges that the Justice Department unveiled this week against Chinese businessmen for allegedly smuggling Nvidia’s H200 chips underscores their strategic importance. ‘They are designed to process massive amounts of data, advancing generative AI and large language models and accelerating scientific computing. These GPUs are used for both civilian and military applications,’ the press release says.
“Yet now Mr. Trump wants to see the advanced H200 without strings. The question is why? Nvidia’ CEO Jensen Huang has lobbied for loosening the restrictions. The company’s friends in the White House argue that doing so could retard China’s drive to develop competing chips and make its AI developers dependent on U.S. chips. That’s their best argument.
“But Beijing isn’t subsidizing homegrown competitors so it can depend on U.S. technology. China knows it trails the U.S. in AI, and that lack of unlimited access to Nvidia’s H200 chips has hindered Chinese AI developers like DeepSeek. Xi Jinping wants H200s so DeepSeek and others can close the gap with Google, OpenAI, Anthropic and U.S. companies….
“We sure hope Mr. Trump isn’t doing this for Nvidia’s 25% tax payments to Treasury. The Constitution vests taxing power in Congress, yet Mr. Trump is essentially trading national security for pennies on the dollar.
“In August the Administration let Nvidia sell its H20 chip to China, conditioned on Treasury getting a 15% cut. At least the Administration then claimed China had agreed to ease rare-earth magnet controls in return – only for Beijing to ratchet up restrictions on rare-earth exports again in October before the Xi-Trump trade truce a few weeks later.
“What is Mr. Trump getting from Beijing now besides better mood music before his planned visit to China in the spring?”
—Oracle Corp. shares fell more than 10% after the company reported a jump in spending on AI data centers and other equipment, rising outlays that are taking longer to translate into cloud revenue than investors want.
Fiscal second-quarter cloud sales increased 34% to $7.98 billion, while revenue in the company’s closely watched infrastructure business gained 68% to $4.08 billion. Both numbers fell just short of analysts’ estimates.
Remaining performance obligation, a measure of bookings, jumped more than fivefold to $523 billion in the quarter, which ended Nov. 30. But $300 billion of that comes from a contract with OpenAI – a loss-making start-up that doesn’t have $300 billion and may struggle to raise it.
Wall Street has raised doubts about the costs and time required to develop AI infrastructure at such a massive scale. Oracle has taken out significant sums of debt and committed to leasing multiple data center sites.
Investors want to see Oracle turn its higher spending on infrastructure into revenue as quickly as promised. Capital expenditures, a metric of data center spending, were about $12 billion in the quarter, an increase from $8.5 billion in the preceding period. Analysts anticipated $8.25 billion in capital spending in the quarter.
Oracle now expects capital expenditures will reach about $50 billion in the fiscal year ending in May 2026 – a $15 billion increase from its September forecast – executives said on a conference call after the results were released.
Annual revenue will be $67 billion, affirming an outlook the company gave in October.
In the quarter, total revenue expanded 14% to $16.1 billion. The company’s cloud software application business rose 11% to $3.9 billion. This is the first quarter that Oracle’s cloud infrastructure unit generated more sales than the applications business.
In the current period, which ends in February, total revenue will increase 19% to 22%, while cloud sales will increase 40% to 44%, the company said, both forecasts in line with analysts’ estimates.
–Shares in Broadcom Inc., a chip company vying with Nvidia for AI computing revenue, slumped 10% after its sales outlook failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations.
The shares fell following unsettling commentary from CEO Hok Tan on a conference call with analysts. He said the company has a backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders that will be shipped over the next six quarters – a number that disappointed some investors. But Tan sought to clarify that the figure was a “minimum.”
“We do expect much more as more orders come in for shipments within the next six quarters,” he said. “So our lead time, depending on the particular product it is, can be anywhere from six months to a year.”
Though Tan said that the company received an $11 billion order from AI startup Anthropic in the fourth quarter, he warned that total margins were narrowing because of AI product sales.
Broadcom also held off on giving an annual Ai revenue forecast, with Tan saying it was “a moving target.”
“It’s hard for me to pinpoint what ’26 is going to look like precisely,” he said. “So I’d rather not give you guys any guidance.” Doh!
Broadcom has benefited from demand for its custom chips as part of a massive data center build-out, giving it a growing piece of an industry dominated by Nvidia.
–In a watershed moment for Hollywood and generative artificial intelligence, Disney said Thursday that it reached an agreement to bring its characters to Sora, OpenAI’s short-form video platform. Videos made with Sora will be available to stream on Disney+ as part of the three-year deal.
Disney also said it would buy a $1 billion stake in OpenAI, with an additional equity investment likely to come. Disney said it would work with OpenAI to “build new products, tools and experiences” as part of the deal and “deploy” ChatGPT for its employees.
“The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence marks an important moment for our industry, and through this collaboration with OpenAI we will thoughtfully and responsibly extend the reach of our storytelling,” Robert Iger, Disney CEO, said in a statement.
Notably, the agreement does not include any talent likenesses or voices, and Iger – perhaps anticipating pushback in Hollywood’s creative community to the agreement – emphasized that Disney would collaborate “thoughtfully and responsibly” with OpenAI.
Separately, also Thursday, OpenAI announced it was rolling out a new AI model designed to make Chat GPT better at coding, science and a wide range of work tasks, weeks after Alphabet Inc.’s Google put the startup on defense with the well-received launch of Gemini 3.
The new model, GPT-5.2, is faster and more adept at finding information, writing and translating, the company said. The software, available in three tiers, is also intended to be better at mimicking the human process of reasoning to handle more complicated, lengthier tasks in fields such as math and programming.
—President Trump signed an executive order Thursday that aims to override state laws on artificial intelligence.
The order would allow the Justice Department to punish states with rules deemed restrictive for AI, in a move to bring the U.S. under one federal standard. Silicon Valley executives had been lobbying the president to ban state AI laws that they believe could cause the U.S. to lose the AI race to China.
“We have to be unified,” Trump said in the Oval Office, citing that China didn’t have to contend with state legislatures. “China has one vote because they have one vote, and that’s President Xi, he says do it and that’s the end of that,” said Trump, yearning for Xi-like power.
The White House planned to examine certain state laws through a legal task force convened by the Justice Department that could withhold federal funding. The approach could put the administration in conflict with Republican states that have sought to pass laws protecting children or regulating data centers in their state.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, a Republican, pitched an additional executive order that would safeguard children. “States must help protect children and families while America accelerates its leadership in AI,” he said in a post on X ahead of Trump’s order.
Trump is testing the loyalty of MAGA conservatives such as former strategist Steve Bannon and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). They opposed banning state AI laws in Congress, saying the move would be a giveaway to tech companies and would undermine states’ ability to install guardrails for consumer protections and regulate potential harms from AI.
—Global airlines trade body IATA said on Tuesday the airline sector would post record profits next year despite ongoing supply chain issues leading to slower aircraft deliveries and a delay in rolling out more fuel-efficient jets.
The projection comes as plane manufacturer Airbus cut its plane delivery target for 2025, citing a quality issue with some metal fuselage panels on its A320 planes.
Both Airbus and Boeing have both faced delivery delays to their airline clients in recent years.
Without newer, more efficient planes, airlines say they cannot cut back fuel costs while flying more people.
Still, IATA struck an optimistic note for the year to come.
“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” said International Air Transport Association director general Willie Walsh in a statement.
Airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $41 billion in 2026 (up from $39.5 billion in 2025). But net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90 (below the 2023 high of $8.50, and unchanged from 2025).
—Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury conceded likely defeat in the annual order race against Boeing, saying it was possible Boeing would win for the first time in six years, helped by settlements over U.S. tariff disputes.
Airbus remains ahead of Boeing in deliveries and the pipeline of outstanding orders, Faury told French radio station France Inter.
But buoyed by strong demand for its 787 long-haul jet, Boeing on Wednesday posted 908 net orders after cancellations between January and November, compared with 700 for Airbus
“The fact that we have been ahead on orders for five years means our order backlog is much higher than that of our main competitor,” Faury said. “But it is true that they have been helped by the American president as part of the resolution of trade disputes.”
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
12/11…120 percent of 2024
12/10…107
12/9…81
12/8…95
12/7…129
12/6…79
12/5…101
12/4…115
—Toll Brothers gave a cautious outlook on house deliveries in the new fiscal year – despite logging higher revenue in the fourth quarter – as industry demand remains soft.
The Fort Washington, Pa., homebuilder said Monday it expects to deliver 10,300 to 10,700 units in fiscal 2026, below the 10,748 units analysts were projecting. The shares declined on the news.
Toll Brothers is deciding how many projects to start and how much inventory to build based on demand levels in individual communities because the market is so choppy, CEO Douglas Yearley said. Management is also “highly disciplined and selective” in acquiring new land.
Yearley said he is trying to balance price and building pace with demand trends, which continue to be weak throughout the market. The company guided for an average selling price for its homes of $970,000 to $990,000.
Obviously, Toll Brothers is focused on the more expensive end of the real-estate market, and its wealthier customer is less impacted by affordability pressures, Yearley said Monday.
The company posted a profit of $446.7 million, or $4.58 per share, below consensus of $4.85.
Revenue rose 3% to $3.42 billion, above expectations.
—Home Depot’s first investor day in more than two years carried a sobering message for investors: The much-awaited recovery in spending on home improvement is still far off.
The company reaffirmed its financial forecasts for the fiscal year ending Feb. 1. But management set a low bar for the following year, saying the challenges that have plagued the industry since 2023 would continue to weigh on demand.
Namely the weak housing market and high interest rates have made consumers less willing to spend on renovation projects.
HD said it expects adjusted earnings per share growth to be between zero and 4% in the year ended in February 2027, following an expected drop of 5% this fiscal year. It expects comparable-sales growth to be between zero and 2% and total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%.
The shares fell one percent on the news.
—SpaceX is said to be moving ahead with plans for an initial public offering that would seek to raise at least $30 billion, a transaction that would make it the biggest listing of all time. The Elon Musk-led company is targeting a valuation of about $1.5 trillion for the entire company, which would leave SpaceX near the market value of Saudi Aramco established during its record 2019 listing. The oil major raised $29 billion at the time.
SpaceX’s management and advisers are said to be pursuing a listing as soon as mid-to-late 2026. The IPO plan sent shares in other space companies higher on Tuesday. EchoStar, which has agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX, rose as much as 12% in New York, while space transportation company Rocket Lab advanced 4%.
—Cracker Barrel Old Country Store saw its shares plummet in the after-hours Tuesday after the company reported lower-than-expected revenue of $797.2 million for its latest quarter, but adjusted earnings of 74 cents a share were better than feared.
The $797.2 million in quarterly sales were down 5.7% from the year-ago first quarter, and its net loss of $24.6 million was down from the profit of $4.8 million in the year-ago quarter.
The Tennessee-based chain said same-store sales fell 4.7% in its restaurants and fell 8.5% in its retail stores. Analysts had expected a 3.9% drop in restaurants, and a 7.4% drop in stores.
Cracker Barrel also lowered its full-year revenue outlook for fiscal 2026, to between $3.2 billion and $3.3 billion, down from its previous forecast of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion.
It projects adjusted full-year earnings to between $70 million to $110 million, down from a previous range of $150 million to $190 million.
Yes, Cracker Barrel’s attempt to rebrand itself, and CEO Julie Masino’s efforts to streamline operations and cut costs after reversing course amid the uproar, impacted results, including many longtime customers complaining that the food isn’t as good as people remember.
Among other changes, Cracker Barrel now makes its signature biscuits in big batches and chills them, rather than rolling out the dough on demand. Green beans and other sides are prepared in ovens instead of keeping them in traditional stovetop kettles, and dishes are reheated when needed.
—Renewable energy provider NextEra Energy expects electricity demand to grow six times faster over the next 20 years than it did over the prior two decades. AI data centers will account for more than 40% of that growth.
At an investor conference this week outlining its view of the U.S. power generation market, the company said Americans will be using nearly 60% more power by 2045.
Exxon and NextEra are collaborating on carbon-abated, gas-fired power-generation projects to serve hyperscalers.
NextEra also plans to develop 15 gigawatts of data-center hubs by 2035, which could mean new business for power-generation equipment maker GE Vernova and for Tesla, which has a utility-scale battery storage business.
–With the nation’s cattle inventory at its lowest level since the 1950s, ground beef, chuck roasts and steaks have surged in price over the last two years. Restaurants that specialize in steak are feeling the same sticker shock as consumers in grocery stores, as the price of USDA choice boneless steak has soared 20 percent in the past year to an average of $14.13 a pound, according to September data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (The steak hit a record high of $14.32 in August).
High-end steakhouses aren’t seeing much pushback as they price an eight-ounce filet mignon above $60.
But when mid-priced chain Outback Steakhouse raised prices over the last couple of years, consumers balked and traffic nose-dived…locations were closed.
—TIME magazine unveiled its 2025 Person of the Year: The architects of AI.
“2025 was the year when artificial intelligence’s full potential roared into view, and when it became clear that there will be no turning back,” TIME said in its announcement.
On the cover are the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Lisa Su (Advanced Micro Devices) Elon Musk, Jensen Huang and Sam Altman.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Over the weekend, President Trump said he was disappointed in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s handling of a U.S. proposal to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Trump’s tone on Ukraine contrasted with comments in recent days about President Vladimir Putin’s reaction to the proposal.
The U.S. said last Friday its negotiators had agreed with Kyiv on a “framework of security arrangements” and discussed what deterrence capabilities were needed as part of a deal to end the war. However, there was little indication of a major breakthrough.
“We’ve been speaking to President Putin and we’ve been speaking to Ukrainian leaders, including Zelensky,” Trump told reporters in Washington on Sunday. “I have to say that I’m a little bit disappointed that President Zelensky hasn’t yet read the proposal – that was as of a few hours ago.”
“His people love it, but he hasn’t (looked at it),” Trump said of Zelensky, claiming that “Russia’s fine with it.”
Zelensky said Saturday he spoke with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner about the latest talks. Zelensky posted on social media that they “agreed on the next steps and formats for talks with the United States.”
Trump had said last week after Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow that the Putin meeting was “very good” and that his advisers had a strong impression “that he’d like to make a deal,” though the Kremlin has yet to fully endorse any of the proposals.
Monday, Zelensky said negotiators discussing a U.S.-brokered peace initiative remain divided over territory.
Elements of the U.S. plan require further discussion on a number of “sensitive issues,” including security guarantees and control over eastern regions, Zelensky said in a phone interview with Bloomberg News. The Ukrainian leader said talks have yet to yield agreement on Ukraine’s Donbas, including the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk.
“There are visions of the U.S., Russia and Ukraine – and we don’t have a unified view on Donbas,” Zelensky told Bloomberg before departing for London to meet with the leaders of the UK, Germany and France. He said Kyiv is pushing for a separate agreement on security guarantees from Western allies, above all the U.S.
Zelensky spoke hours after Trump criticized him. He said the talks in Florida between Witkoff, Kushner and Ukrainian officials in Miami were “long and difficult, but they are not confrontational.” Still, his comments signal that more ground is needed to be covered to reach consensus. The U.S. said Friday that negotiators had locked in an agreement on a “framework of security arrangements” and discussed what was needed to prevent another attack, though there was little indication of a major breakthrough.
Zelensky wants to know what Western allies were prepared to offer, he said, with negotiators working on a separate accord involving the guarantees.
“There is one question I – and all Ukrainians – want to get an answer to: if Russia again starts a war, what will our partners do,” Zelensky said.
At the start of the talks in London, Zelensky said at Downing Street that “There are some things which we can’t manage without Americans,” as well as some “things which we couldn’t manage without Europe. That’s why we need to make some important decisions.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was “skeptical about some of the details which we are seeing in the documents coming from the U.S. side, but we have to talk about it.”
Elements of the U.S. plan also include Ukraine’s perspective to join the European Union and tapping immobilized Russian central bank assets.
“We are talking to the U.S. – it is constructive work,” Zelensky said. “But there are questions that concern Europe – and we cannot decide for Europe. We need to discuss with Europe Ukraine’s membership in the EU, which is also part of security guarantees.”
Zelensky was to then travel to Italy on Tuesday for a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
“After that, we will have our joint vision” for the talks, Zelensky said Monday. “And I am ready to fly to the U.S. if the president is ready for such a meeting.”
In London, Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine would not budge from its longstanding opposition to handing over land to Russia, adding that the U.S. was pushing Kyiv for a “compromise” on Moscow’s territorial demands.
The Kremlin has insisted that Ukraine cede all of the eastern region (the Donbas), including land that Moscow’s forces have been unable to capture through nearly four years of war. Zelensky said Ukraine had no “legal” or “moral” right to relinquish any land.
“Of course, Russia insists that we give up territories,” Zelensky said. “We, of course, do not want to give anything away. That is exactly what we are fighting for.”
He added: “The Americans today are looking for a compromise. I’ll be frank.”
After the meeting at Downing Street, French President Emmanuel Macron’s office issued a statement saying the group had worked on the American peace proposals “with a view to supplementing it with European contributions, in close coordination with Ukraine.”
The statement added that “in parallel, work will be stepped up to provide Ukraine with robust security guarantees and to plan measures for the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Mr. Macron cited “the fact that Ukraine is resisting in this war, and the fact that the Russian economy is starting to suffer.”
Overnight Monday, the city of Sumy in northwestern Ukraine was left without power after a Russian drone attack.
The region’s governor said more than a dozen drones had hit power infrastructure, the latest in Russia’s nightly attacks. No deaths were reported.
Kyiv also said its forces were still fighting for the eastern city of Pokrovsk amid reports that some of its troops had pulled back to escape the threat of being surrounded.
“We haven’t heard any specific statements from Kyiv, and we haven’t heard the results yet,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday of talks over the weekend in Florida between Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators.
“It is now important for us to understand what the results of that work are,” he added. “We do not know what differences of opinion there are exactly.”
In an interview with Politico late Monday, details released Tuesday, Trump then blasted Europe.
“I think they’re weak,” the president said of European political leaders. “But I also think that they want to be so politically correct.”
“I think they don’t know what to do,” he added. “Europe doesn’t know what to do.”
In the interview with Politico’s Dasha Burns, Trump said he puts little stock in the role of European leaders in seeking to end the war: “They talk, but they don’t produce, and the war just keeps going on and on.”
In a fresh challenge to Zelensky, who appears politically weakened due to a corruption scandal, Trump renewed his call for Ukraine to hold new elections.
“They haven’t had an election in a long time,” Trump said. “You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it’s not a democracy anymore.”
Trump also responded to a weekend claim by first son Donald Trump Jr. that the commander-in-chief may be willing to walk away from Ukraine, saying: “It’s not correct. But it’s not exactly wrong.”
“We have to, you know, they have to play ball,” the president went on. “If they don’t read agreements, potential agreements, you know, it’s not easy with Russia because Russia has the upper hand. And they always did. They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger in that sense.
“I give the people of Ukraine and the military of Ukraine tremendous credit for, you know, the bravery and for the fighting and all of that,” Trump said. “But you know, at some point, size will win, generally.”
“(Zelensky’s) gonna have to get on the ball and start accepting things,” Trump said elsewhere in the interview. “You know, when you’re losing, because he’s losing.”
Zelensky has said he won’t run for reelection after the war ends. He said Tuesday he’s prepared to hold a wartime election if Ukraine’s parliament and foreign allies allow it, but he added this is a “question for the people of Ukraine,” not other countries.
Speaking to reporters following Trump’s comments in the Politico interview, Zelensky said he would ask for proposals to be drawn up which could change the law.
Elections could be held in the next 60 to 90 days if security for the vote was guaranteed with the help of the U.S. and other allies, he said.
“I’m asking now, and I’m stating this openly, for the U.S. to help me, perhaps together with our European colleagues, to ensure security for the elections,” he told the media.
“The issue of elections in Ukraine, I believe, depends first and foremost on our people, and this is a question for the people of Ukraine, not the people of other countries. With all due respect to our partners,” he said.
IF an election were held amid the massive security concerns, around one million soldiers and four million refugees would be voting, as well as the citizenry, but there’s simply no way to guarantee security at the polling stations.
President Zelensky then said Wednesday evening that he’s finalizing a 20-point proposal that could “define the parameters for ending the war.” Zelensky said he spoke with Trump administration officials to discuss postwar reconstruction and economic development in Ukraine. He told reporters the plan would be shared with U.S. officials soon.
“This week may bring news for all of us – and for bringing the bloodshed to an end,” the Ukrainian leader posted on X.
—Going back to last Friday night into Saturday, Russia unleashed a major missile and drone barrage on Ukraine, using 653 drones and 51 missiles in the wide-reaching attack, Ukrainian forces shooting down 585 drones and 30 missiles, the air force said, adding that 29 locations were hit.
At least eight were wounded, but no reports of deaths that I saw.
President Zelensky said that energy facilities were the main targets of the attacks, also noting that a drone strike had “burned down” the train station in the city of Fastiv, located in the Kyiv region.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its air defenses had shot down 116 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight Friday into Saturday.
Russian Telegram news channel Astra said Ukraine struck Russia’s Ryazan Oil Refinery.
Wednesday, Ukraine attacked Lukoil PJSC’s Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea, widening the scope of its strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
The field hit has a capacity of around 120,000 barrels a day and the strikes reportedly halted output from 20 production wells on the offshore field.
—NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a speech in Germany that Russia could attack a NATO country within the next five years.
“Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies. We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.”
He echoed similar statements about Russia’s intentions made by Western intelligence agencies, which Moscow dismisses as hysteria.
But just last week, Vladimir Putin said that while his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, it was ready “right now” if Europe wanted to start a war.
Similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine.
Rutte said supporting Ukraine was a guarantee for European security.
“Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with NATO, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us.”
—–
China/Taiwan/Japan: Beijing continued its retaliation for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, suspending passenger ferry service between the two (Shanghai to Japan’s Osaka and Kobe) “due to a request from the Chinese side” over concerns that the safety of travel between the two countries could not be guaranteed, according to the operator, Japan-China International Ferry, in a statement on Monday.
The suspension was the latest in the fallout from diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo sparked by comments Takaichi made a month ago, when she told the Japanese parliament that an attack on Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army might qualify as a “survival-threatening situation,” which could allow Japan to deploy its military forces.
Since the comments, China has launched a series of retaliatory measures to put economic, diplomatic and military pressure on Japan. China has told its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, which is impacting the Japanese tourism industry in a big way.
Separately, late Tuesday, Japan had to scramble jets to monitor Russian and Chinese air forces conducting joint patrols around the country, the Japanese defense ministry said.
Two Russian TU-95 nuclear-capable strategic bombers flew from the Sea of Japan toward the East China Sea to rendezvous with two Chinese H-6 bombers, and performed a “long-distance joint flight” in the Pacific, the ministry said.
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said in a post on X on Wednesday that the Russian and Chinese joint operations were “clearly intended as a show of force against our nation, which is a serious concern for our national security.”
The U.S. then flew nuclear-capable bombers over the Sea of Japan alongside Japanese fighter jets on Wednesday, in response to the Chinese and Russian drills.
Japan and the U.S. “reaffirmed their strong resolve to prevent any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force and confirmed the readiness posture of both the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and U.S. forces,” Japan’s defense ministry said in a statement on Thursday.
Israel/Gaza: Hamas said it was ready to discuss “freezing or storing” its arsenal of weapons as part of its ceasefire with Israel, a senior official said Sunday, offering a possible formula to resolve one of the thorniest issues in the U.S.-brokered agreement.
Since the truce took effect in October, Hamas and Israel have carried out a series of exchanges of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. With only one hostage still held in Gaza – an Israeli policeman killed in the Oct. 7 attack – the sides are preparing to enter the second phase.
But the second phase aims to lay out a future for Gaza and promises to be even more difficult – addressing such issues as the deployment of an international security force, formation of a technocratic Palestinian committee in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory and the disarmament of Hamas. An international board, led by President Trump, is to oversee implementation of the deal and reconstruction of Gaza.
The Israeli demand for Hamas to lay down its weapons promises to be especially tricky – with Israeli officials saying this is a key demand that could hold up progress in other areas. But Hamas’ ideology is deeply rooted in what it calls armed resistance against Israel.
Venezuela: The U.S. seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela Wednesday in the most significant escalation yet in the increasingly tense relationship between Washington and the South American country.
“It was seized for a very good reason,” President Trump told reporters, describing it as a “very large” tanker.
Attorney General Pam Bondi said officials from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Coast Guard executed a warrant to seize the tanker, alleging it was being used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran.
She said the tanker had been sanctioned for “years” for being involved in an illegal oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations.
“This seizure, completed off the coast of Venezuela, was conducted safely and securely – and our investigation alongside the Department of Homeland Security to prevent the transport of sanctioned oil continues,” Bondi said in a post on X.
Democrats quickly slammed the seizure as increasing the chances of sparking a war with Venezuela.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: A week ago, late Thursday night, the administration posted its National Security Strategy to the White House site, a 33-page document, which is required by Congress but does not necessarily bind future decisions.
As expected, it puts unprecedented focus on the Americas and immigrants. A section titled “What Do We Want In and From the World?” begins: “We want to ensure that the Western Hemisphere remains reasonably stable and well-governed enough to prevent and discourage mass migration to the United States.” Later, it adds that “border security is the primary element of national security” an assertion it calls part of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.
But Europe, surprisingly to some, comes in for much criticism, chiding European leaders for a lack of “self-confidence,” particularly in their dealings with Russia, which has for nearly four years been waging a war of conquest on European soil. “European allies enjoy a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost every measure, save nuclear weapons. As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated, and many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states,” the report says.
Incredibly, European officials are chided for “unrealistic expectations for the war” in Ukraine – which is quite rich, given that it was Donald Trump who repeatedly promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office.
The Washington Post editorialized: “The strategy was likely to unsettle European leaders who were already struggling to find a way to match Trump administration priorities with their own. Now the White House is officially embracing the far-right nationalist parties that have vowed to take down centrist leaders, often alongside plans to embrace a more pro-Russian line.”
The document did say deterring “a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority. We will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.”
There was reaction from NATO leaders. Donald Tusk, prime minister of Poland: “Dear American friends, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem. And we have common enemies. At least that’s how it has been in the last 80 years. We need to stick to this, this is the only reasonable strategy of our common security. Unless something has changed.”
Gerard Araud, who served as France’s ambassador to the United states as well as the United Nations: “…the stunning section on Europe reads like a far-right pamphlet.”
Carl Bildt, former Swedish prime minister: “The only part of the world where the new [U.S.] security strategy sees any threat to democracy seems to be Europe. Bizarre.”
But former Bush administration official Eliot Cohen argued in The Atlantic: “(On) Europe, the NSS is uncomfortably in the right ballpark in pointing out the challenge of mass migration,” nothing the administration “has put its finger on a real problem.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Eight years ago, in his now-distant first term, President Trump laid out a national security strategy recognizing the new world of great power competition. It was a welcome effort to articulate emerging global threats. The new strategy Mr. Trump released Friday is an all but explicit retreat from that competition. It will please China and Russia but discomfit America’s allies.
“The 33-page paper is the Administration’s most complete attempt so far to explain its thinking on national security. Mr. Trump explains mainly in staccato social-media bursts, so this is the best insight so far into how the next three years might go. And maybe the next seven years, since the document bears the imprint of Vice President JD Vance.
“The strategy isn’t an isolationist document that you might read at a libertarian think tank. But it is clearly a declaration that America can no longer afford to, and shouldn’t in the national interest, bear the burden of global leadership.
“Most notably, the strategy puts the Western Hemisphere first, playing down the rest of the world. There’s a geographic logic to this but not a strategic one since the largest threats to U.S. security aren’t Brazil, or Colombia, or even Cuba.
“The strategy usefully highlights the importance of removing malign interests from the hemisphere – albeit without mentioning Russia or China or Cuba as those influences. It also suggests that migration and drugs are two of the gravest threats to America. But Mr. Trump has showed the U.S. can stop runaway migration, while reducing illegal drug flows requires slowing U.S. demand. Whether Nicolas Maduro remains in power in Venezuela will be the first test of this Americas focus.
“By any measure the largest threat to the U.S. is the hostile power across the Pacific that has tripled its nuclear arsenal in five years – China. Yet the document describes commerce as “the ultimate stakes” in the Pacific and treats trade imbalances as a bigger threat to U.S. prosperity than Beijing’s military buildup.
“The best defense for this weakness on China is that the Administration wants to conciliate to buy time while Beijing holds the whip hand on rare-earth production. And the strategy paper does deserve credit for reiterating the U.S. interest in peace in the Taiwan Strait. The strategy promises to ‘build a military capable of denying aggression anywhere in the First Island China,’ albeit without committing to the increased defense spending that this requires.
“China is also the main underwriter of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, and Russia is where the strategy’s wheels fall off. The document counsels ‘strategic stability’ with the power that invaded eastern Europe and has been deploying nuclear blackmail against the U.S. and NATO. Congratulations on making the Ukraine war harder to end. Mr. Putin will wield the strategy as proof that NATO expansionism and European decadence justify his imperialism.
“Meanwhile, the document assails America’s friends across the Atlantic. The Administration is right about Europe’s decline in self-confidence and decades of neglecting hard power. But the Administration lectures Europe on free speech while saying we should ignore how the world’s dictatorships govern themselves….
“(At) bottom the document is oddly unrealistic about the world’s threats. Revisionist powers are working together to mount a global and ideological challenge to the U.S. – an axis among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Prudential questions of priorities and U.S. intervention are crucial but flow from that larger competition.
“Some will dismiss the strategy as another Beltway document President Trump won’t read….
“But you can bet America’s enemies are reading this document, and what they’ll see is a country consumed with its own infighting and unwilling to be honest about the real threats from China and Russia.
“Americans elected Mr. Trump in 2016 in part because they didn’t fancy Barack Obama’s naivete about our adversaries and his retreat from U.S. leadership. The mystery is why Mr. Trump is reviving much of that failed grand strategy in his second term.”
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapprove. 25% of independents approve (Nov. 3-25).
Rasmussen: 47% approve, 51% disapprove (Dec. 12).
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll has President Trump’s approval rating at 41%, up from 38% late last month.
Trump’s performance on the cost of living, where he got a 31% approval rating, was up from 26% in late November. Some 69% of Republicans rated him favorably on the issue, up 10%.
A new Harvard-CAPS Harris poll, released Monday, has Trump’s overall approval rating ticking up to 47%, just one month after hitting a low this year of 44%. Breaking down the numbers, 37% strongly disapprove of his job as president, 27% strongly approve, 20% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove and 4% are unsure.
Trump has a 44% approval rating on the economy in this survey.
–Flamboyant Texas Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett formally entered the state’s Senate race Monday, adding a high-profile name to the contest in which Democrats are hoping to pull off an upset.
Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) announced he would end his bid for Senate and instead seek a House seat in anticipation of Crockett’s entrance to the race, saying he wanted to avoid a “bruising” Democratic primary.
But Crockett will face a primary opponent in state Rep. James Talarico, who has taken a much more conciliatory approach toward Republicans.
The incumbent, Republican Sen. John Cornyn, is facing a stiff primary challenge of his own from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. [I’m all in on Cornyn, personally.]
—The battle over the extension of critical health care subsidies came to a head on Thursday, with the debate over the subsidies a centerpiece of the 43-day government shutdown. Senate Democrats were promised a vote on their extension proposal as part of the deal to reopen the government, but the agreement did not include a promise by the GOP to extend the subsidies.
And then the Senate rejected a bill to prevent health care premiums from spiking next year for millions of Obamacare enrollees.
“I say to my Republican colleagues, our bill is the last train to leave the station,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said ahead of the vote. “If Republicans don’t climb aboard, there won’t be another chance to act before premiums skyrocket next year.”
Four Republicans – Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri – defected from their party to try to extend the subsidies. The final tally was 51 in support and 48 against, with Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) not voting. The measure needed 60 votes to advance.
“I’m open to an extension because I think the premium cost is real,” Hawley told reporters the day before the vote.
An alternative Republican bill was also blocked on a 51-48 vote.
—President Trump unveiled a plan to aid U.S. farmers to the tune of $12 billion (including $11 billion in one-time bridge payments). The farm community has struggled to sell their crops while getting hit by rising costs after the president raised tariffs on China as part of a broader trade war.
Farmers have backed Trump politically* but his aggressive trade policies and frequently changing tariff rates have come under increasing scrutiny because of the impact on the agricultural sector and because of broader consumer worries.
*U.S. counties that most heavily rely on farming supported Trump by more than 77 percent, on average, in the 2024 election, according to data compiled by Investigate Midwest.
The aid is part of the administration’s latest effort to defend Trump’s economic stewardship and answer voter angst about rising costs – even as he has dismissed concerns about affordability as a Democratic “hoax.”
The aid is seen helping hard-hit soybean farmers, who need the funds to finance the planting of next year’s crop. China suspended U.S. soybean purchases when the trade war erupted, but recently resumed them after Trump met with President Xi.
The funds could help farmers buy products such as fertilizer, seeds, and crop protection from companies like Mosaic, Corteva, and FMC.
The funding will come from tariff revenue, Trump said during a roundtable event to announce the package, adding that the farm aid “would not be possible” without the tariffs. He blamed the financial burdens for farmers on President Biden and touted Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans resuming.
Trump released $16 billion in aid to farmers during his first term amid Chinese retaliation for a less-sweeping round of tariffs.
Some farmers and economists were quick to note that the problems facing farmers and the mistreatment they have endured are primarily a direct consequence of Trump’s own tariff actions.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“In 2020, when he signed a ‘historic trade deal’ with China, Mr. Trump’s team bragged of billions in pledges to buy U.S. farm goods. ‘Though soybean exports managed to reach their pre-trade war levels over 2020-21, they still fell over 30 percent short of their target,’ according to a 2022 report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. By the way, this was while the first Trump Administration spent $20 billion on aid to farmers after it derailed their exports.
“ ‘Trade wars are good, and easy to win,’ Mr. Trump once boasted. Then why does he keep needing to divert billions of dollars to compensate the people whose livelihoods are collateral damage? Mr. Trump promised ‘Liberation Day.’ He’s offering farmers a bailout instead.”
—President Trump on Truth Social:
“The only reason Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown (Green turns Brown under stress) went BAD is that she was JILTED by the President of the United States (Certainly not the first time she has been jilted!). Too much work, not enough time, and her ideas are, NOW, really BAD – She sort of reminds me of a Rotten Apple! Marjorie is not AMERICA FIRST or MAGA, because nobody could have changed her views so fast, and her new views are those of a very dumb person. That was proven last night when washed up, Trump hating, 60 Minutes ‘correspondent,’ Lesley Stahl, who still owes me an apology from when she attacked me on the show (with serious conviction!), that Hunter Biden’s LAPTOP FROM HELL was produced by Russia, not Hunter himself (TOTALLY PROVEN WRONG!), interviewed a very poorly prepared Traitor, who in her confusion made many really stupid statements. My real problem with the show, however, wasn’t the low IQ traitor, it was that the new ownership of 60 Minutes, Paramount, would allow a show like this to air. THEY ARE NO BETTER THAN THE OLD OWNERSHIP, who just paid me millions of Dollars for FAKE REPORTING about your favorite President, ME! Since they bought it, 60 Minutes has actually gotten WORSE! Oh well, far worse things can happen. P.S. I hereby demand a complete and total APOLOGY, though far too late to be meaningful, from Lesley Stahl and 60 Minutes for her incorrect and libelous statements about Hunter’s Laptop!!! President DJT”
Rep. Greene told 60 Minutes that Trump was “extremely angry” over her support for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, describing the phone call in her first interview since announcing plans to resign from Congress, effective in January 2026.
“We did talk about the Epstein files, and he was extremely angry at me that I had signed the discharge petition to release the files,” Greene said.
When Lesley Stahl further asked Greene to describe what Trump said, she paused. “He said that it was going to hurt people,” Greene said.
—Trump said he hopes the top Republican in the Indiana state Senate loses his next primary after Indiana rejected a Trump-back congressional redistricting plan.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, called out by name Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, who was among 21 Republican senators who voted to defeat the redistricting bill in the GOP-controlled Senate.
“He’ll probably lose his next primary, whenever that is,” Trump said. “I hope he does, because he’s done a tremendous disservice.”
Bray is up for reelection in 2028.
—In his Mount Pocono, Pa. rally Tuesday night, Trump went off on migration from “hellholes” such as Haiti, Afghanistan and Somalia. The statement prompted an attendee to shout that they were “shithole nations.” “I didn’t say shithole you did,” Trump said, bringing up an incident from his first term.
“Remember, I said that to the senators,” Trump said, referring to the vulgar term during a 2018 meeting at the White House that he suggested he did not make at the time. “I said, why is it that we only take people from shithole countries. Why can’t we have some people from Norway, Sweden, just a few, let us have a few, from Denmark…send us some nice people, do you mind?”
–This is a horrible story, but it’s big news in Europe. A sperm donor who unknowingly harbored a genetic mutation that dramatically raises the risk of cancer has fathered at least 197 children across the continent, a major investigation has revealed.
Some children have already died and only a minority who inherit the mutation will escape cancer in their lifetime.
The sperm was not sold to UK clinics, but the BBC confirmed a “very small” number of British families, who have been informed, used the donor’s sperm while having fertility treatments in Denmark.
Denmark’s European Sperm Bank, which sold the sperm, said families affected had their “deepest sympathy” and admitted the sperm was used to make too many babies in some countries.
You just feel so sorry for the families impacted.
—The world’s first social media ban for children younger than 16 took effect in Australia on Wednesday, testing the policy as questions intensify over the impact of social media on youth.
The law, passed last year, prohibits them from using social media platforms like Facebook, X, Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok but places the onus of enforcement on the companies. They could face fines of up to 49.5 million Australian dollars, equal to about $32.9 million, if they don’t take reasonable steps to enforce the policy.
The legislation passed with the support of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Labor Party as well as most of the opposition Liberal Party. Supporters argue it’s necessary to safeguard against the hazards of social media and to protect children’s mental health.
Aussie kids say they are already finding workarounds. But to me, it’s worth a shot.
—New York City just went through 12 days without a single homicide – the longest streak in nearly a decade, the NYPD said Monday. The zero-homicide stretch ended Sunday night when a man was shot in the head in the Bronx.
Prior to the latest slaying, Gotham hasn’t gone that many consecutive days without a homicide since 2015, according to police.
“Right strategy. Great execution. That’s how you set record after record,” NYPD Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said as she touted the latest crime figures.
Meanwhile, murders dropped in November to the lowest level since 2018 with 16 slayings the latest crime data shows.
–Our hearts go out to the residents of Washington state impacted by historic, catastrophic flooding that has displaced over 100,000, stranding families on rooftops, bridges washed out.
Needless to say, Washington is under a state of emergency. Not a happy holiday season for our friends in the Pacific Northwest.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $4328…Silver $61.50
Oil $57.44…Nat Gas $4.12 (down from $5.28)
Bitcoin: $90,243 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $2.92; Diesel: $3.66 [$3.02 – $3.50 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 12/8-12/12
Dow Jones +1.1% [48458]
S&P 500 -0.6% [6827]
S&P MidCap +0.9%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq -1.6% [23195]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-12/12/25
Dow Jones +13.9%
S&P 500 +16.1%
S&P MidCap +7.4%
Russell 2000 +14.4%
Nasdaq +20.1%
Bulls 53.6
Bears 17.8 [I incorrectly had last week’s bull figure at 50.0, before I made the correction to the right number, 50.9…my bad…]
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
