[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
The War on Terror
I have long held the belief that the United States could begin to
reshape the Middle East as President Bush has envisioned.
Today, there are good things happening in the region and
elsewhere (see Ukraine). Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, for
example, has been most helpful recently in working with Israel
on the upcoming Palestinian election as well as the overall peace
process.
The Weekly Standard’s William Kristol concluded the following
in the current issue.
“…obviously the road to democracy will be a rocky one, with
twists and turns along the way, and outcomes that will not be
entirely to our liking. But suddenly, with the election in
Afghanistan, with the forthcoming elections in the Palestinian
Authority and Iraq, with voices of change being heard in the
Arab world, Bush’s ‘idealistic’ project looks surprisingly
realistic. This puts a greater burden on the Bush administration
to be more serious about improving the execution of its Middle
East strategy, both in Iraq and elsewhere. But it does suggest
that with thoughtful and energetic execution, the strategy can
begin to show important and far-reaching results.”
And the Washington Post’s Charles Krauthammer weighed in on
Afghanistan as Hamid Karzai was inaugurated as president this
week.
“For almost a decade before Sept. 11, we did absolutely nothing
about Afghanistan. A few cruise missiles hurled into empty
tents, followed by expressions of satisfaction about the ‘message’
we had sent. It was, in fact, a message of utter passivity and
unseriousness.
“Then comes our Pearl Harbor, and the sleeping giant awakens.
Within 100 days, al Qaeda is routed and the Taliban overthrown.
Then the first election in Afghanistan’s history. Now the
inauguration of a deeply respected democrat who, upon being
sworn in as the legitimate president of his country, thanks
America for its liberation.
“This is Afghanistan, which only three years ago was not just
hostile but untouchable.”
Oh, but there is much work to be done. In Iraq the majority
Shiites are consolidating their political forces to ensure they
capture as high a vote as possible and have even offered up the
option of holding the election over 2 to 3 weeks to ensure the
best security. [Vote…move the army to secure the next
location…vote…move the army, etc.] Not a bad idea given the
sad state of the Iraqi forces and the overstretched U.S. military.
Sunnis, on the other hand, are beginning to realize they have to
participate or they risk being totally marginalized.
As for the insurgency, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday
that Syria finally appears to be cracking down on its porous
border with Iraq, thus limiting the number of recruits who can
link up in Baghdad, Ramadi, Fallujah, and the other hellholes.
But you also still have the threat posed by Iran in Iraq. Jordan’s
King Abdullah had the following thoughts in an interview with
the Washington Post’s Robin Wright and Peter Baker.
“Abdullah said that more than 1 million Iranians have crossed
the 910-mile border into Iraq, many to vote in the election – with
the encouragement of the Iranian government. ‘I’m sure there
(are) a lot of people, a lot of Iranians in there that will be used as
part of the polls to influence the outcome.’ …
“ ‘It is in Iran’s vested interest to have an Islamic republic of Iraq
…and therefore the involvement you’re getting by the Iranians is
to achieve a government that is very pro-Iran,’ said Abdullah….
“ ‘If Iraq goes Islamic republic, then, yes, we’ve opened
ourselves to a whole set of new problems that will not be limited
to the borders of Iraq. I’m looking at the glass half-full, and let’s
hope that’s not the case. But strategic planners around the world
have got to be aware that is a possibility,’ (Abdullah
concluded).”
As for Donald Rumsfeld and his snippy, arrogant reply to a
soldier in Kuwait who asked him about the lack of armor for
military vehicles, “You go to war with the Army you have,” it
doesn’t matter the question was planted…many have been
wondering the same thing for about 18 months.
But I was just as upset with President Bush’s own comment. We
hear the complaints, he said, adding when he is with the families
of those serving he always tells them “we’re doing everything we
possibly can to protect your loved ones.” Were this to be the
case, Mr. President, you certainly didn’t show it as the
insurgency took hold in the summer of 2003. Your silence then
was deafening.
Once again, though, I have to conclude as I will countless more
times over the coming months and years. It’s not enough to say
in war ‘mistakes are made.’ I’m tired of this pitiful excuse
wherein one is really saying you never learn from history or learn
to adapt quickly. But President Bush will nonetheless be judged
on the broader picture and if democracy takes root in Iraq, even
if a flawed version, the mission will be deemed a success.
The picture of the week may have been of Pakistan’s President
Musharraf sitting in the Oval Office; a brave, new ally who
despite the explosive anti-Americanism back home had no
problem being pictured with Bush. Who could have predicted
that pre-9/11? Who could have possibly predicted the rise of
Hamid Karzai? Add it all up and there is still more good than
bad from this editor’s perch. But January can yet prove to be a
real make or break month, what with the Palestinian Authority
and Iraqi elections, as well as the aftermath of the vote in
Ukraine on Dec.26. It’s the season for hope, however. Light a
candle.
Wall Street
It was a week bereft of important economic news. The producer
price index for November was up 0.5%, but only 0.2% ex-food
and energy. Inflation is not an issue. Sure there could be a little
blip here and there but at some point in 2005 ‘deflation’ will
become the watchword as the global economy cools, particularly
in China.
And worldwide, for the better part of three months there has been
mounting evidence of a slowdown, including this week’s
announcement from China that industrial production is running
at its slowest pace in a year (though exports are still booming).
For its part the Asia Development Bank reduced its estimate for
’05 GDP, ex-Japan, to 6.3% from a projected 7.2% in ’04, the
latter a 7-year high. 6.3% isn’t bad, I’ll grant you, I just believe
this will prove to be far too optimistic. Speaking of Japan, there
are growing signs its recovery is already over. If you blinked
you missed it.
Where we continue to catch a break the last few weeks is in the
price of oil. OPEC finally agreed to cut current production to
more closely adhere to existing targets, yet oil continued to fall
as the market doubts OPEC’s level of compliance and as
speculators continue to be wrung out. As I’ve been saying for
months, inventory levels are just fine, thank you.
Crude closed the week at $40.71…down about $9 in just two
weeks and off the high of $55 set less than two months ago.
[OPEC’s ‘basket’ is about $7 less than this…important when you
hear talk of the cartel upping its price band from the existing
$22-$28 target.] If I’m right on the economic picture for 2005,
oil could fall quite a bit further if demand slackens, even though,
legitimately, one would think the lack of production capacity
worldwide could help put in a floor, say around $30 just to pull
a figure out of thin air…everyone else does.
But here’s where it gets complicated. The drop in oil is
obviously a positive for the consumer (and corporate earnings)
and as it helps alleviate any inflation fears that enables interest
rates to remain at historic lows, particularly with regards to the
10-year. And if the 10-year stays low, say at least below 5%,
that decreases the chances of a serious decline in real estate
values as housing thus remains affordable to most prospective
buyers.
I still believe in the real estate bubble but I’ve tried to be clear
the past few months that values don’t have to fall for there to be
a negative impact on consumer spending. Stagnant price action,
when homeowners are used to annual increases of 8, 10 and 20
percent, can have almost the same deleterious impact as values
declining 5%…it’s the wealth effect. Of course if values actually
fell at least 5% across most of America, as is already happening
in some parts of the world, this would only add credence to my
global recession outlook at some point in ‘05.
As for the plight of the U.S. dollar, which often has a direct
bearing on rates, Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach
commented in the 12/6 edition of Barron’s that when it comes to
the currency and world rebalancing “the margin of error is so
slim since the imbalances are so huge.”
Roach’s concern is what happens if Asia’s buyers strike for
higher rates? But he doesn’t mention geopolitics and I’m
increasingly more convinced than ever that if a full-scale
dumping of the dollar occurs at some point over the next year or
so it will have more to do with China or Russia attempting to
prove a political point than anything else, even though
particularly in the case of China it understands its best market
would then be buying fewer of its goods during any market
convulsions.
Street Bytes
–The major equity indexes were down just a bit this week with
the Dow Jones and S&P 500 off 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, to
10543 and 1188. Nasdaq fell 0.9% to 2128. The action would
have been worse were it not for some merger talk between
Nextel and Sprint, as well as Johnson & Johnson and medical
device maker Guidant. In the case of the Nextel / Sprint
potential combination it would create the 3rd-largest mobile
phone operator in the U.S. behind Cingular and Verizon
Wireless. Meanwhile, G.E. helped the market with a bullish
outlook for 2005, a 10% increase in its dividend and a large share
buyback.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 2.43% 2-yr. 2.93% 10-yr. 4.15% 30-yr. 4.82%
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets on
Tuesday to probably raise interest rates once again, though the
bond market is expressing zero concern over what would be a 5th
increase since the year began. Every time you think the longer
end of the yield curve is about to tank (and rates rise), either a
piece of bullish news on the inflation front or a sign the economy
is not too hot (such as the previous week’s employment report)
comes along to take yields back down. At some point the cycle
could be broken but it’s tough for me to talk about a big rise in
rates if I’m calling for a recession in ’05…….that is unless there
is a dollar crisis and the Fed and / or the market are forced to take
rates higher to defend the currency.
Next week’s economic calendar is loaded with goodies for all to
digest; including reports on retail sales, industrial production and
consumer prices.
–The Russian stock market tanked 10% in two days after
government officials went after the 2nd-largest Russian mobile
phone company, KimpelCom, for $158 million in back taxes,
fines and penalties. KimpelCom’s ADRs plunged 20% in one
day.
After the dismantling of Yukos, the latest move certainly doesn’t
give investors a warm, fuzzy feeling. As one money manager
quipped to the Moscow Times, “(Russia) is starting to look like a
banana republic.”
On the energy front, Exxon Mobil CEO Lee Raymond told
Charlie Rose that he will not put vast new sums into Russian
projects until “the political situation clears up.”
And then you have the issue of Gazprom, the Kremlin’s choice
to buy Yukos’ key assets. Gazprom needed a loan to put in its
bids so six banks ponied up $13 billion; France’s BNP Paribas
and Calyon, Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein,
ABN Amro and J.P. Morgan. Remember these outfits when the
Kremlin shuts off the spigot to the Baltic or countries in
Western Europe down the road. They will have all been
complicit, by my way of thinking. Of course in the case of
Deutsche Bank, Gazprom’s chief advisor, it has oil and gas all
over its hands already.
Lastly, in a sign of coming attractions, terrorists bombed a major
pipeline going through Dagestan (bordering Chechnya).
–I’ve always said that with the prevalence of financial
derivatives in the markets these days what should scare the heck
out of everyone is that some of those employing these
instruments simply aren’t that smart. Case in point China
Aviation Oil, a large supplier of jet-fuel. CAO Singapore
collapsed under the weight of a $550 million derivatives loss as
the company kept doubling down on its bet that oil prices would
collapse as they then soared to $55. The CEO was arrested
Wednesday in Singapore and one of the issues this gentleman
will face is the fact CAO sold a 15% stake in October and the
buyer obviously didn’t know of the dire financial straits the
company was in.
–In an interesting venture, IBM sold its PC unit to China’s
largest PC maker, Lenovo, but existing IBM management will
run the operation with headquarters remaining in the U.S. as
IBM also retains a 19% stake. The positives of this move can’t
be ignored.
–Sirius Satellite Radio was trading at about $3.35 before the deal
with Howard Stern was announced in October and on Tuesday
the shares hit $9, giving the company an absurd valuation in
excess of $10 billion. Some Wall Street analysts then sounded
the alarm and the stock fell below $7, only to recover some to
$7.50 by week’s end. Be careful on this one…or at least use
only your “spec capital.” It will be feast or famine in five years.
–Real Estate Bubble Alert: Adam Sandler is shelling out $13
million for a 7BR, 9BA pad in Pacific Palisades. And the
average home price in Orange County, CA, rose 19% year-over-
year thru October. But in looking at a chart in the Los Angeles
Times I couldn’t help but notice one particular zip code in
Newport Beach where the average sales price was $2,250,000…
up 171% over the same period. Yup, those are PIMCO
managing directors, I mused.
–One in six drivers in my state of New Jersey now has a SUV,
putting it 6th nationwide and up from a ranking of 21 just 7 years
ago. What makes this laughable is the list of those states ahead
of us…#1 Colorado, Wyoming, Alaska, Minnesota and New
Mexico.
–Daimler Chrysler issued a serious recall of its Dakota and
Durango trucks on Friday. It seems the front tire comes off.
–Martin Frankel, the man who bilked seven insurance companies
out of at least $200 million, was sentenced on Friday to 16+
years.
–Franklin Templeton Investments is the first big mutual fund
complex to kill B shares as of Jan. 14; a great move for investors
as the selling of this class was rife with conflicts of interests.
–I was in Macau last April and missed by a month or so the
opening of the Sands Macau casino there, a project of Sheldon
Adelson’s. What a great story he is, a man who earned his initial
fortune running the Comdex computer trade show until he was
bought out for $800 million or thereabouts, at which point he
then turned his attention to the casino industry where he is
making quite a splash, including a super hot IPO scheduled to
come to market next week, at last word.
But get this…open just a few months the Sands Macau pulled in
800,000 visitors in October and generated net income of $61
million in the 3rd quarter, its first full one in operation. I took a
ferry there, about a one hour trip from Hong Kong, and I can
only imagine how many are running these days.
–Playboy Enterprises is opening a club in Shanghai, an
interesting move since the last bunny hutch in the U.S. closed
back in 1988. I saw one local say she didn’t know if men in
Shanghai would get the concept because they like to “look and
touch,” a no-no with the bunnies. Meanwhile, Continental
Airlines will begin offering direct service to Shanghai from
Newark in 2006….not that one has anything to do with the other.
–According to New York’s Newsday, Wal-Mart is going to be
opening its first store in the Big Apple in Queens, home of the
1969 and 1986 World Champion New York Mets. [Us Mets fans
have to stretch these days you understand.]
–My portfolio: I haven’t done anything in a while and remain
about 30% in equities, the rest cash.
Foreign Affairs
Ukraine: It was a positive week as the nation’s parliament
reached a compromise on electoral reforms in preparation for the
December 26 run-off. U.S-European cooperation in this theater
has been particularly encouraging, even as Russian President
Vladimir Putin continues to play the fool. Putin still hasn’t
acknowledged the November 21 election irregularities and, along
with his harsh comments on the Iraqi electoral process (as well as
his total lack of cooperation in the UN oil-for-food
investigation), the Russian president is acting more and more like
a cornered rat, which is exceedingly dangerous in the grand
scheme of things. Of course the White House itself looks foolish
for not confronting Putin, leaving it up to departing Secretary of
State Colin Powell to offer up some mild criticism. Putin has
been no ally in the war on terror and he is only encouraging
nuclear proliferation with the likes of Iran.
Israel: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon survived a critical vote
within his Likud Party that gives him permission to bring the
Labor Party into a new coalition, one that would hasten the
Israeli withdrawal from Gaza (along with four puny settlements
in the West Bank). Sharon has also pledged his cooperation on
the Palestinian election on January 9. And, to top it off, Israel
and Egypt swapped prisoners as the latter continues to send out
positive signals of support for the peace process.
China / Taiwan: Taiwan’s big legislative election is being held
today and should independence-minded President Chen Shui-
bian’s ruling party receive a majority, directly or through a
coalition, Beijing will not be happy. But I got a kick out of a
quote in a Reuters report. Armed conflict between China and
Taiwan “could devastate Taiwan.” No it wouldn’t. The Chinese
would simply fire some missiles to take out the airstrips and
unleash commandos in Taipei to round up Taiwan’s political
leadership. Then China sues for peace, the people quickly relent,
and, poof, it’s over in 5-7 days with little damage to the
infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Don Blumenthal had a good opinion piece in the
Washington Post spelling out Beijing’s strategic interference in
many of Washington’s policy objectives (a la Putin, actually);
arenas such as Iran, Sudan, North Korea and Taiwan. As China
secures badly-needed future energy sources, and acquiesces in
Iran and North Korea’s weapons programs, Blumenthal notes the
Bush administration has in essence ceded all initiative to China;
a dangerous mistake.
Pakistan: The flip side of President Musharraf, as he walks his
tightrope, is that he won’t let outsiders interview national hero
A.Q. Khan, father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and
erstwhile leader of a network that still scares the heck out of the
West.
Northern Ireland: Restoration of the power-sharing arrangement
was to have taken place by the end of the month, but the IRA and
Sinn Fein are balking and the peace process is once again on the
verge of collapse (what a surprise); only this time it’s all about
whether an official photographer can document the final
destruction of IRA weapons; Sinn Fein’s concern being that the
photos would then be published…a total humiliation in its eyes.
Random Musings
–Congress passed legislation overhauling the intelligence
apparatus. One can only hope some good comes of this.
–I was all set to slam Homeland Security nominee Bernard
Kerik again this week, this time for being a walking conflict of
interest, but just like that he took himself out of the running. It
seems Mr. Kerik is a fraud, just like so many of them.
–No doubt, the Transportation Security Agency, TSA, has major
problems, including the new policy on pat-down searches. And
as a security screener at Baltimore-Washington International
pointed out in a Washington Post op-ed piece, training is
virtually non-existent and the work environment abysmal. But
you also have a situation best illustrated by Newark Airport
where, as the Star-Ledger reported, the average screener had
missed 6 weeks of work (on top of vacation and holiday time) in
the first 9 ½ months of this year …or about 8 weeks over a full
year.
–New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer announced he is
running for governor in 2006. An early Quinnipiac poll has
Spitzer defeating Gov. George Pataki 50-38 should the latter opt
to run again. But there is this intriguing rumor that the soon to
be retired Secretary of State Colin Powell, a Bronx native, could
be interested. Powell vs. Spitzer would be great political theater.
[I can’t see Pataki running again, incidentally. Nor is he a
legitimate presidential contender, despite the buzz in that regard.]
–New Jersey Senator Jon Corzine probably thought he could
waltz to the Democratic nomination for the governor’s race in
2005 but now he could be facing a primary battle against acting
Governor Dick Codey, who is receiving solid early reviews for
his performance in following our former governor, “Gay
American” Jim McGreevey. On the Republican side, 7 or 8
candidates have already announced, including some joker who
sent out a Christmas card with a picture of his unattractive
family.
–I couldn’t believe all the immigrants on my flight from Newark
to Houston the other day. I’ve been a huge supporter of
immigration over the years – it’s what helped bring New York
City back, to cite but one example – but President Bush has to
reach some kind of consensus, soon, on the hordes coming into
the country from south of the border.
–Related to the above, U.S. News & World Report had a scary
report on the rise in the level of gang violence since 2000,
something that touches almost every decent-sized city in
America. Latin American-related outfits are proliferating in
alarming numbers, but at least the FBI is now refocusing its
efforts to aid local law enforcement in addressing this problem.
–USA Today had a list of potential terror targets in the United
States. Here are just a few:
66,000 chemical plants
80,000 dams
590,000 highway bridges
87,000 food-processing plants
–A story in the Moscow Times notes that 1 in 30 Russian boys
aged 15 to 19 dies every year from an accident, poisoning,
suicide or violence. The suicide rate is 3Xs that of Western
Europe while the homicide rate is 20Xs greater. As a UNICEF
study explained it’s all about the fact Russian society places little
value on life while for young people the pressures to keep up in
Russia’s increasingly decadent culture are enormous.
–The Washington Post had a terrific piece of reporting on the
death of former NFL player Pat Tillman in Afghanistan. You’ll
recall it was months before it was revealed that Tillman died of
friendly fire and the Post details the ongoing Pentagon cover-up.
Despicable.
–Everyone from the New York Times to the White House (that
covers the spectrum, I’d say) is rushing to defend Kofi Annan. I
do understand why the Bush administration is supporting
him…it’s all about politics, the Iraqi election, and simply not
wanting to rock the boat just yet. But one would hope the
administration will not stand in the way of both the Senate’s and
Paul Volcker’s investigations into the oil-for-food scandal. As
for the Times’ endorsement of Annan, it’s all about the dinner
parties both the editors and Kofi attend.
–West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd wants a requirement that
schools devote at least a portion of a day each year to the
teaching of the U.S. Constitution, which most believe crosses the
line in having the federal government mandate what individual
districts teach. I agree with Byrd…a first for me.
–Another Democrat I found myself in agreement with this week
for the first time is the New York Times’ Paul Krugman, who
contends Social Security is a “problem of modest size.” I’ve
been saying that for years. Folks, when we reach the crossover
point between paying out benefits and actual receipts it merely
becomes another budget item and if the economy is growing at
about a 3% rate we’re fine, with a few minor adjustments thrown
in such as my favored freezing of benefits every other year for an
initial period.
–On a related item, President Bush opted to retain Treasury
Secretary John Snow; Snow now needing to be the president’s
point man on both Social Security and tax reform. He’s a good
fellow, just overmatched.
–The Times of London has obtained documents proving former
Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic, indicted for
war crimes (including for the massacre of 8,000 Muslim men at
Srebrenicia), is being protected by the Serb and Bosnian Serb
militaries. Incredibly, Mladic is still receiving an army pension
and he returns to his old headquarters from time to time to drink
with his buddies. NATO launched an honest effort to capture
him last July but he slipped the net with help from his friends.
–Historian / analyst Victor Davis Hanson warned in an op-ed for
the New York Times that unless the government does more to
protect U.S. agricultural interests, we face a threat on a scale
similar to our current dependence on foreign oil. I must say I
never thought of this, even as I have been reporting recently that
for the first time in modern history the U.S. could become a net
importer of food in 2005. As Hanson spells out, current farm
programs and subsidies fail to address vital issues and medium-
sized farmers are now finding that it is more profitable to sell
their land than to cultivate it, while those who needed subsidies
the most – “growers of fresh, processed and dried fruit and
vegetables – received almost no subvention, and it is their farms
that are most likely to be lost to residential development.”
[OK, admit it. How many of you have ever used ‘subvention’ as
a substitute for the word ‘subsidy’? I sure as heck haven’t.]
–New York Post columnist John Podhoretz on the post-election
atmosphere that still includes futile efforts by the Left to create a
vote-counting scandal in Ohio.
“And speaking of those usual tiresome subjects, isn’t it time for
Jesse Jackson to start appearing on the ‘Hollywood Squares’ or
something?”
–The New York State legislature finally amended the draconian
Rockefeller-era drug policies that would send a first-time
offender to prison for up to life. The new penalties will still be 8
to 20 years, but at least it’s a start.
–Baseball’s Players Union is acting like it would accept a
tougher policy on steroids but I doubt it will come remotely close
to satisfying many of us. I just wish the vast majority of fans
were more upset, though it seems it’s the younger base that has
little regard for the history of the game. Meanwhile, in listening
to two local sports radio personalities, Mike and the Mad Dog
(never listen to any sports talk show more than ten minutes at a
time or your brain turns to mush), you begin to get a sense that
even those who have not been implicated, like pitcher Roger
Clemens, are now finally going to be placed under the
microscope. In Clemens’s case, when you examine his record it
really is amazing what he has achieved since turning 35 (a la
Barry Bonds). Mere coincidence? You make the call.
–In a survey of 29 countries, U.S. 15-year-olds placed 24th in
math. Of course this all has to do with the amount of time our
kids waste on the Net and in playing video games instead of
collecting baseball cards and getting into statistics. [Quick,
what’s 4 for 13?]
Then again, Finland is #1 and they not only have no baseball but
there’s nothing to do there except go online, download music and
play video games, so I guess that shoots my theory down.
–I ended up having an absolute blast at the PGA’s Q-School in
La Quinta and if you are a golf junkie you must attend this event
once in your life. Just a terrific way to get inside the sport.
–So the International Space Station is running low on food and
re-supplying the crewmen is dependent on a Christmas delivery
of borscht from a Russian craft…which at least will make for a
little diversion on Christmas Day as families around the world
gather to see if the food gets there.
But this only came to light after a pantry audit conducted last
week found the cupboards were almost bare, so I can draw only
one conclusion; there is an alien creature on board that is stealing
the food. I suggest NASA and its Russian counterpart begin
reviewing the video tapes.
–Miss Peru won the Miss World pageant.
–The Star-Ledger had an article on the giving of cash at
Christmas:
“ ‘I suspect that, contrary to popular belief, many folks do not
like to give money not because they don’t want the receiver to
know how much they spent on them, but because money does
not reflect the personality of the giver or the receiver,’ said Eric
Silverman, associate anthropology professor at DePauw
University in Greencastle, Ind.
“That’s what Lara Thomas-Walsh of Brick Township (N.J.)
learned at a young age.
“ ‘In my family it was just considered rather thoughtless to give
cash, like you couldn’t be bothered to put forth the effort to
choose a gift for someone.’ Thomas-Walsh, 35, said.”
Oh, give me a break. I always subscribed to the Sally Brown
school of thought. “Dear Santa…please send cash, preferably
tens and twenties.”
–Opus [of “Bloom County” fame].
“Life is what happens when you’re making other plans.”
And so along the lines of the above, I’m about to embark on a
rather crazy adventure. On Tuesday I’m heading to Paraguay,
via Santiago, Chile, to do some spadework on a long-shot
project. Call it “In search of Carlos Franco,” the golfer who hails
from there. It’s a long story, and rather humorous, but let’s hope
it stays that way…humorous. I have absolutely no idea what
awaits me, but I can guarantee it will fill a Week in Review or
two.
I also have no idea if I’ll be able to even post this column next
week from down in Asuncion. Don’t be alarmed if you don’t see
anything for a day or two. I just may have to wait until I return
to Santiago on the way back. And yes, I do plan on being home
for Christmas.
—
God bless the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $436
Oil, $40.71
Returns for the week 12/6-12/10
Dow Jones -0.5% [10543]
S&P 500 -0.3% [1188]
S&P MidCap -0.6%
Russell 2000 -1.6%
Nasdaq -0.9% [2128]
Returns for the period 1/1/04-12/10/04
Dow Jones +0.9%
S&P 500 +6.8%
S&P MidCap +11.3%
Russell 2000 +13.5%
Nasdaq +6.2%
Bulls 60.8…highest since February when the Dow was 10799.
Bears 21.7 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Happy Chanukah.
Brian Trumbore
