Wall Street…and Europe
Time to review where I’ve been on one of the big issues of the year…Ireland and the EU.
“We have a long, long way to go before we’ll know if Europe can get its house in order. These are incredibly wrenching changes governments must implement and you’d have to be an idiot to think the people will just take it all lying down (even though that would be totally appropriate given the binge they’ve been on)….
“So you have a European continent that could be stuck in neutral, at best, for years, nay decades.”
“It’s going to be one very depressed continent once this all settles in…
“You are nuts if you are bullish on Europe in the short-term.”
“I got a kick out of the happy talk from some European officials concerning the sovereign debt crisis that has been temporarily averted due to the joint IMF-EU bailout program for the likes of Greece. This week the IMF said default in Greece and Ireland was unlikely. Paulo Mauro, author of an IMF paper on the topic, said, ‘Markets are overestimating the risk of default.’
“To which I’d counter, not so fast, Paulo. 1.5% growth in the EU region is simply muddling through after the crash, and in all likelihood it means that Germany and France continue to carry the main share of the load while the others suffer. It also totally ignores that the austerity programs put in place by the governments haven’t begun to bite yet. One of Britain’s large food retailers, the Co-operative Group, warned the austerity drive there ‘would erode consumer confidence and ensure that the economy would continue to ‘bump along the bottom.’’ It’s just common sense. So Paulo, y’all ain’t out of the woods yet.”
“The national mood in Ireland is somber, even seething; the latter because of the criminal sums that the developers were given, plus the bonuses bank executives paid themselves, as well as taking astronomical personal loans. One fellow loaned himself $100 million! I kid you not. Needless to say he is not in a position to repay it….
“The middle class is joining ‘the dole queues in droves.’ The number of homes in negative equity is staggering.
“Many Irish workers who still have jobs have seen pay cuts of 10 to 15 percent, yet their taxes are skyrocketing to pay for the bank bailouts….
“ ‘It’s a bit like the Irish personality,’ said one commentator. ‘They had a great party, but now there’s a monumental hangover.’
[Note: I wrote a ton on Ireland in the 9/11 edition of WIR…should you want to bone up on the topic.]
“I found the head of the European Union’s financial stability apparatus’ (that which is responsible for propping up the likes of Greece) statement that the sovereign debt crisis is over remarkable for its infant-like quality.
“No doubt, Europe’s austerity programs are in place to engender confidence, but what does it say when just days after the fellow’s pronouncement, Ireland’s 10-year bond traded at its highest yield, compared to the German 10-year, ever; even as Ireland’s government said it would double its budget cuts over coming years.
“It is, it’s needed, but now it’s clear some governments, such as Ireland’s, and perhaps Spain’s and Greece, are going overboard and killing any hope of a recovery; recovery needed for increased revenues, for starters.”
Oh, for new readers I could have pointed out about 50 other pages worth of similar observations since the start of the year. Not one thing surprises me about what is going on in Europe and there is only one cure for the ongoing sovereign debt crisis…significant growth, coupled with the right amount of austerity that doesn’t kill the growth, but this is like threading the needle and success in Europe is also dependent on a solid recovery in the U.S., as well as an Asia that can keep its engine running without stalling out. Virtually everything has to be perfect, which is impossible.
What’s been funny about the past six months in particular is how many positive voices there have been on Europe, and they’ve been consistently wrong. Which is exactly what happened during the height of the real estate bubble, which yours truly identified was global through my trips overseas and talking to folks in pubs, who were telling me about buying second homes in Spain, but I digress.
This week Ireland has been front and center and as I go to post, details are being worked out on what looks to be up to a 100 billion euro bailout package for both the government and the Irish banks; the latter with tens of billions of bad real estate loans, the value of which continues to plummet. Many in Europe, like in Germany, whose leaderships are scared their own banks would one day have to realize the true value of their bank debt exposure on the Emerald Isle, want Ireland to accept the cash to stabilize the rest of the continent and the currency. [U.K. banks have a $222 billion exposure to Ireland. German banks $206 billion.] EU President Herman Van Rompuy said this week:
“We are in a survival crisis. If we don’t survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union.”
And it being Europe, of course there are deep divisions all over the place, particularly between the ECB, IMF and Germany.
It was German Chancellor Angela Merkel who really stirred things up when she sought to rewrite the EU’s treaties to set up a new bailout system for Greek-like collapses, insisting that private investors bear more of a responsibility for such rescues, i.e., take a haircut on their holdings, whereupon after a bit of reflection, bond markets reacted furiously, forcing Germany and France (which had tagged along) to assure one and all that they weren’t referring to current bondholders, only those involved in new issues after 2013.
But it was the idea that Germany is dictating to everyone else how to run their finances that has even allies like the Netherlands and Austria ticked off at Merkel.
And speaking of Austria, I’ve been saying with regards to the bailout mechanism currently in place that some of the euro nations aren’t going to want to participate in any bailout after Greece, and sure enough, Austria this week questioned why it should even transfer more funds to Athens when its deficit-cutting plan is already falling apart (due to lower than expected revenues).
Consider this. In April, Eurostat (the EU’s statistics agency), said Greece’s budget deficit was 13.6% of GDP. This week it revised the figure to 15.4%! Just a slight adjustment. So no wonder an Austria says, hey, we have our own problems, what are we doing giving more to this ancient rat hole? And Austria then wants to have a say in any bailout of Ireland.
So in the case of Ireland, that leads to one paramount issue. Ireland’s corporate tax rate of 12.5% that in the years of the Celtic Tiger spurred growth. The likes of Germany, France and now Austria are demanding that Ireland hike the rate, which Ireland’s fellow Euromates have always felt gave Ireland an unfair competitive advantage.
But the Irish government is saying, ‘OK, we finally accept that we need help, but we must retain our sovereignty (as much of it as possible), and we will not change the corporate rate because it’s only through an increase in exports that we can grow out of this mess. How would, say, a doubling in the rate to 25% possibly help our economy?’
Europe needs growth, but as expected it’s every nation for itself and for Ireland, many look at their problems as payback time.
But while Ireland says its corporate tax rate is “non-negotiable,” a bailout will mean that the IMF will move in, demand new tax hikes elsewhere on Irishmen, along with further significant job and wage cuts in return for the loans. As for the banks, which as you can imagine are bleeding deposits at lightspeed, they need to be backstopped, quickly, for the IMF to then give its blessing.
‘We hereby declare that all Irish banks are solvent and we’ll stand beside them,’ whereupon it is then hoped the banks could go back into a marketplace that is currently shut to them and raise capital, which would perhaps keep them from borrowing too much from the IMF.
So that’s where we’re at as I go to post. The opposition in Ireland is calling for the resignation of Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Brian Cowen after one of the darkest weeks in its history. I got a note from a fellow member at Lahinch Golf Club over there on Friday and he tells me the club is being forced to lay off significant numbers, which when I was there in August they had been able to keep to a minimum, but the depression would appear to be deepening. And a depression, both monetarily and sentiment wise, is exactly what Ireland is in these days.
Bloomberg had this quote from a native, 77-year-old Bill Phelan, on the events of just the past week.
“As an Irishman who has lived all his life in the Irish Free State, it is painful to think that we’ll be handing over our sovereignty. I regret that all I have worked and saved for may be crumbling under my feet. I worry for my children.”
If Mr. Phelan’s family is like others in the country, as I noted last week 1 in 3 between the ages of 25 and 34 have lost their jobs and many of these are now fleeing the country.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned that the housing markets in the U.K. and U.S. could face a double-dip, which would then slow consumption all over again.
Yes, it’s still all about jobs and housing. This week in the U.S., October housing starts plummeted again to a level far worse than expected and the fewest since April 2009. Record low mortgage rates have failed to boost demand and as D.R. Horton, the nation’s second-largest homebuilder, said a week ago, 2011 promises to be another “challenging” year. Employment is still weak and as the CEO said, “It’s hard to sell a home to an unemployed person.”
As for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his quantitative easing, part deux, he aggressively defended his plan to buy up to $600 billion in Treasury securities and other assets, while critics rail he is fueling inflation beyond the Fed’s control and that there is no exit strategy. Bernanke took his defense to Frankfurt and a meeting of bankers.
“Globally, both growth and trade are unbalanced. Because a strong expansion in the emerging-market economies will ultimately depend on a recovery in the more advanced economies, this pattern of two-speed growth might very well be resolved in favor of slow growth for everyone if the recovery in the advanced economies falls short.”
Bernanke went on to say, essentially, what would you guys do if you had 9.6% unemployment and the job picture continued to look gloomy? He also took a shot at China’s currency policy but didn’t call them out by name.
Speaking of China, after earlier reporting consumer prices had risen 4.4% in October, and as the cost of vegetables and other staples has soared (though there are signs already prices have stabilized…if you dig deep enough into the papers there), the government talked of price controls, subsidies for the poor, and a crackdown on speculators and hoarders, all of which, except the subsidies, isn’t easy. Beijing additionally raised reserve requirements again on the banks and an interest rate hike seems a certainty as the government tries to slow down the economy.
But it’s civil unrest that scares China’s leaders to death, and I’ve addressed the whole topic of food shortages before (WIR 9/4/10). What’s worrisome to me is China’s paranoia in all areas it seems these days, such as in its crackdown on dissent, addressed further below. I’m watching it closely, given my huge holding in Fujian province, not that I would jettison it any time soon, but I keep looking for anything that can change the economic outlook in any significant way.
Turning to the U.S., when it comes to inflation the official numbers this week could not have been better. The October producer price index, expected to be up 0.8%, came in up 0.4%, with the core rate, ex-food and energy, down 0.6%. The consumer price index for the month was up 0.2%, with the core rate unchanged. Over the past 12 months, the core CPI is at its lowest rate since the government started keeping such figures in its current format, 1958. Of course a core rate of 0.6% also means that at least by this dataset, we are dangerously close to outright deflation, which has been Bernanke’s big concern all along. You don’t have to believe the numbers when it comes to the realities of things like healthcare costs and food prices, but this is what the Fed is focused on.
Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rate for October is still just 74.8, which means don’t look for any wage growth, among other things, with that excess capacity in the system, but on the plus side, retail sales for October were up a solid 1.2%, and a gauge of leading economic indicators rose a fourth consecutive month.
Street Bytes
–Well, it doesn’t get any duller than this. Stocks were literally unchanged this week, with the Dow Jones adding 11 points to 11203 (0.1%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at the same round numbers as the prior week, 1199 and 2518, respectively. My recollection is this has happened just once before since I’ve been tracking such stuff. Early in the week the market got a boost from Caterpillar’s $8.6 billion acquisition of Bucyrus International, a maker of shovels and drills, but as the week progressed it was more about China and Ireland and the uncertainty these two engendered.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 0.18% 2-yr. 0.50% 10-yr. 2.87% 30-yr. 4.24%
[I’m on record as saying I am not going to be concerned until the yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 3.25%. It’s an arbitrary number but I’m not screaming the sky is falling until we get closer to that level, even after a 34 basis point rise the past two weeks. Then again, I’m not a trader, nor an investor in bond funds these days. If you bought a longer duration fixed income fund when the 10-year was at 2.50%, for example, you’re down a bit, and would be down a lot at 3.25%.]
China remained the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries in September, the Treasury Department reported, as its holdings rose by $15.1 billion to $883.5 billion, so here’s another case where if China were to be shown to have pulled $15 or $20 billion out in October, I’m not panicking. Japan’s holding rose to $865 billion. Net buying of U.S. long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $81.0 billion during the month compared with net buying of $128.7 billion in August. It would take two consecutive months of negative flows before I’d give a damn, but guaranteed, the next time there is a negative flow number the bears will be eschewing hibernation. Just remember the mantra around here is ‘wait 24 hours.’
–Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate want the Fed to focus solely on controlling inflation, rather than seeking also to maximize employment. Sen. Bob Corker said the Fed’s dual roles are “confusing to the market.” The dual mandate goes back to a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) said such a move by Republicans “would be a very dumb fight…The notion that the Fed should be indifferent to unemployment is a terrible idea, damaging to the economy.”
–The unveiling of the new General Motors in an IPO on Thursday was indeed a much-hyped event, though also warranted. It is a tremendous success story, after all…but will obviously only remain so if the anticipated rebound in the car market, far more than the initial bump, materializes.
Shares in GM were priced well above the initial $26-$29 range at $33 and traded as high as $36.00 before closing the first day at $34.20, a very small first day gain vs. that of the previous 10 largest U.S. IPOs according to Thomson Reuters.
The total size of the GM offering, including preferred shares, is a record $23 billion, with $13.6 billion being returned to the U.S. government, out of the $49.5 billion that taxpayers ponied up in the initial bailout.
But many note GM’s ongoing issues, including its still massive pension liabilities and relatively flat U.S. sales (even as its international growth is solid). What GM does have is little to no debt and it won’t have to worry about paying any taxes for some time to come.
As for the government’s stake, it goes from nearly 61 percent to 26 percent (others say 37%, it’s confusing), but for taxpayers to break even, the Treasury Department will need to sell its remaining 500 million shares at an average price of $51-$53 (again, I’ve seen different figures) in the months and years to come.
One little coup for GM this historic week was having Motor Trend name the Chevy Volt as its Car of the Year. Motor Trend comments, “The Volt absolutely delivers on the promise of the vehicle concept as originally outlined by GM, combining the smooth, silent, efficient, low-emissions capability of an electric motor with the range and flexibility of an internal combustion engine. It is a fully functional, no-compromise compact automobile that offers consumers real benefits in terms of lower running costs.”
[Meanwhile, on the day GM came back, one-time car czar Steven Rattner had to put up with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (not yet governor) filing two lawsuits seeking to bar Rattner from the securities industry in New York for life as well as forcing him to pay the state $26 million. This goes back to the allegations that Rattner was involved in a massive pay-to-play scheme involving state pension funds, with the ringleader being former New York Comptroller Alan Hevesi. Rattner had already been assessed a $6.2 million penalty and two-year ban by the SEC.]
–While GM’s IPO captured the market’s attention , Harrah’s and Burlington Coat Factory had their offerings postponed due to tepid demand, which wasn’t a great sign.
–A few notes from Asia: Taiwan’s third quarter GDP soared 9.8%, far more than expected though off a revised 12.9% annualized pace in Q2. Singapore estimates its GDP will rise 15% for all of 2010. Japan’s Q3 GDP was at a better than expected 3.9% pace. And South Korea hiked its key interest rate to tackle inflation, with consumer prices rising at a 4.1% clip in October.
–Dell Inc. reported that its net income doubled in the latest quarter as business spending jumped 27% in the case of large-enterprises and 24% for small-and-medium businesses. And whereas Cisco Systems had reported slower-than-expected growth in the public sector (government), Dell said its revenue rose 20% in this arena. But Dell expects “muted” growth this holiday shopping quarter and there are big questions over Dell’s suddenly strong margins for the completed period vs. what can be expected in the future.
–Boeing could be postponing the introduction of its 787 Dreamliner for a seventh time, adding to the 3-year delay for the plane as the test fleet remains grounded following a Nov. 9 fire during a test flight. Boeing shares have fallen 10 percent since the day before the fire, after having gained 30 percent this year prior to Nov. 8. The jet that caught fire remains in Laredo, Texas, where it landed. Certification of the 787 had been slated for the first quarter of 2011. Six test planes currently fly around the world, looking for various weather conditions required by the Federal Aviation Administration. Redesign is a possibility. Boeing has 847 advance orders for the Dreamliner.
–And then you have the ongoing issue with the Airbus A380 superjumbo and its Rolls-Royce engines, 40 of which need to be replaced, according to Australian airliner Qantas, which was the victim of a mid-air explosion in one of the engines, forcing an emergency landing. Investigators believe an oil leak may have caused the Qantas fire that led to the blow-out. It also turns out that pieces of the exploding engine just missed the fuel tank, which would have resulted in a catastrophe killing all 459 passengers and crew.
[And to think outside the box, imagine how the world would have suspected terrorism had this been the case.]
–Both Airbus and Boeing have another competitor to be worried about, China; specifically Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, or COMAC, as the state-owned company announced a 100-plane order for its first commercial jetliner, the 150-seat C919.
–The Federal Reserve is asking for another round of stress tests for the nation’s 19 largest banks to show they can weather another recession before these banks can boost dividends paid to investors. Those that don’t pass the tests will have to raise new capital. The Fed plans to move quickly so that banks that satisfy the guidelines can boost their dividends in the first quarter of 2011.
–The median price in Southern California’s bellwether home market declined 4.2% in October compared with September as sales for the month dropped to near-record lows.
–Warren Buffet, in an op-ed for the New York Times, wrote a letter to Uncle Sam for his performance during the financial crisis, alluding to vehicles such as TARP. In part:
“Yes, you are often clumsy, even inept. But when businesses and people worldwide race to get liquid, you are the only party with the resources to take the other side of the transaction. And when our citizens are losing trust by the hour in institutions they once revered, only you can restore calm.
“When the crisis struck, I felt you would understand the role you had to play….The challenge was huge, and many people thought you were not up to it.
“Well, Uncle Sam, you delivered. People will second-guess your specific decisions; you can always count on that. But just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of panic – and, overall, your actions were remarkably effective….
“In the darkest of days, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and Sheila Bair grasped the gravity of the situation and acted with courage and dispatch. And though I never voted for George W. Bush, I give him great credit for leading, even as Congress postured and squabbled.
“You have been criticized, Uncle Sam, for some of the earlier decisions that got us in this mess – most prominently, for not battling the rot building up in the housing market. But then few of your critics saw matters clearly either. [Ed. Speak for yourself, Warren!] In truth, almost all of the country became possessed by the idea that home prices could never fall significantly. [Ed. Ibid]
“That was a mass delusion, reinforced by rapidly rising prices that discredited the few skeptics who warned of trouble. Delusions, whether tulips or Internet stocks, produce bubbles. And when bubbles pop, they can generate waves of trouble that hit shores far from their origin. This bubble was a doozy and its pop was felt around the world.
“So, again, Uncle Sam, thanks to you and your aides. Often you are wasteful, and sometimes you are bullying. On occasion, you are downright maddening. But in this extraordinary emergency, you came through – and the world would look far different now if you had not.”
–The United Nations is warning the world is “dangerously close” to a new food crisis, with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warning that the world should “be prepared” for even higher prices next year. It is urging farmers to “expand substantially” production of corn and wheat in particular to meet expected demand and rebuild world reserves.
The FAO raised its forecast for the global food bill by 15 percent from 2009, to almost the same level as that achieved during the 2008 food crisis.
But there are always supply shocks, and the FAO dismissed the role of speculators, which is just absurd.
–By the way, true story. Despite all the hoopla over commodities this year, the broad-based RJ/CRB index as of Friday is up just 5.5% in 2010. Oil is up a whopping $2.
–According to Standard Chartered PLC, China will overtake the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy by 2020. Standard’s chief economist said, “We believe that the world is in a ‘super-cycle’ of sustained high growth (and) the scale of change over the next 20 years will be enormous.” China’s economy will be twice as large as that of the U.S. by 2030 and account for 24 percent of global output, up from 9 percent today, the report estimates. So if you haven’t already begun to do so, start learning Mandarin. Me? I’m too old to tackle it.
–Facebook is going to offer @facebook.com e-mail addresses to its 500 million members, putting it in competition with browser-based e-mail services from Microsoft, Yahoo and Google.
–Is the recession the sole reason for the pay-TV business seeing its business slide the past two quarters, or are more customers cutting the cord and turning to the Web for their TV? We need more data, but we do know that Time Warner’s HBO said it was on track to lose 1.5 million subscribers this year. I should pull my own subscription until “Curb Your Enthusiasm” comes back.
–AAA estimates travel during the Thanksgiving holiday will rise 11.4% over 2009. I’m staying home. In fact, after being away much of the last seven weeks, I’m home for a long stretch.
–Zut alors! Bed bugs are spreading in Paris! Actually, in French it’s “punaises de lit” and they were a rarity just three years ago, but an employee at the public health section of Paris’ City Hall told Reuters that more than 600 places in the city have been treated thus far in 2010, a big increase from ’09. Travelers from the United States and Canada probably acted as hosts.
[Doonesbury is currently running a hilarious series on the topic. Start from Mon., Nov. 15.]
–Finally, the Beatles are available on Apple’s iTunes store after a long-running dispute with the band.
–My portfolio: My main China holding reported very strong earnings on Monday, and gave solid guidance for the current quarter, but the news was anticipated given the big run-up in the share price and it fell back some. Like I said above, right now I’m more concerned with the health of the overall Chinese economy and how they negotiate this dicey stretch of inflation. My uranium stock, of which I sold a 1/3 previously, continues to rock and roll as the company commenced production on schedule down in Texas. This has been a huge home run thus far, a very pleasant surprise, and masks my lousy natural gas play. I bought more UNG two weeks ago and will hold that as long as need be until an inevitable spike comes along, but my Jan. 2011 call position is rapidly running out of time to work. As for the China travel play that I have on my radar, it too reported great earnings and the stock has done well since I mentioned it, but it’s as if half the investors still don’t believe the accounting, a common problem here. As noted before, I will not add significantly to this one until I have a chance to go to China and check it out firsthand and if by then it’s too late, so be it.
Foreign Affairs
Afghanistan: This weekend, at a critical NATO conference in Portugal, the United States will press its case for maintaining a combat force in Afghanistan at least into 2014, as opposed to President Obama’s original pledge that by July 2011, American troops would begin to come home. It’s an acknowledgement not just on the difficulty of defeating the Taliban, but that the Afghan Army and security forces are simply nowhere near being ready to take over in the most critical regions.
“You pick July 2011, and that lets the Taliban know there is an end date. Well, I hope the Taliban think that’s an end date because it’s not, and they’re going to be very surprised come August, September, October, November, when most American forces are still there and still coming after them.”
But then you have the ongoing issue of President Hamid Karzai, who once again blasted the U.S. effort, saying this time that the United States needs to “reduce military operations,” specifically Special Ops night raids in southern Afghanistan. General David Petraeus was furious amid reports he was close to resigning over the matter. Petraeus expressed his “astonishment and disappointment” with Karzai’s proclamation.
And a follow-up to last week…Canada said it would indeed end its combat mission end of 2011 and maintain only a small force for training.
Lastly, the disconnect between those fighting the Afghan War (and their families) and the rest of the American people continues to grow and it’s not a good thing.
[In Pakistan, a drone attack killed 20 alleged militants near the Afghan border, the eighth such attack this month and making it 100 this year, far and away the most of the war.]
Iran: Secretary Gates said the latest round of sanctions on Tehran are creating internal rifts between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad, as Khamenei is beginning to doubt the president’s assurances that sanctions are not hitting the economy as hard as they are. Gates thus wants to give sanctions more time.
The New York Times reports a diagnosis of the Stuxnet computer worm that supposedly infected Iran’s nuclear program shows that it was from Israel, though of course the Israelis would never acknowledge this, and that the worm was specifically designed to “send nuclear centrifuges wildly out of control.” “Rapid changes can cause them to blow apart. Reports issued by international inspectors reveal that Iran has experienced many problems keeping its centrifuges running, with hundreds removed from active service since summer 2009.” Iran itself admitted it was battling Stuxnet.
Israel: There are no formal documents between the United States and Israel as yet for Prime Minister Netanyahu to take to his cabinet, but the package being worked on between the two concerns a 90-day settlement freeze, during which time it is hoped that the Israelis and Palestinians would finalize borders between the two, after which the settlement issue becomes moot because Israel would only be building on land it was to control. The U.S. would then pledge to not ask for any further moratoriums beyond the new deadline, veto any anti-Israel motions in the UN for a full year and sell Israel 20 advanced F-35 fighter jets.
But while this sounds all well and good, there are a number of serious issues, the least of which is can Netanyahu get the votes in his cabinet while keeping his fragile coalition alive. Foreign Minister Lieberman, for one, opposes a new settlement freeze.
Lebanon: Due to various religious holidays, tensions over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the expected indictments of members of Hizbullah were lessened this week but could quickly ratchet back up at a moment’s notice. Israel announced it was withdrawing from territory it seized during the 2006 war with Hizbullah in the village of Ghajar. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (Hizbullah sympathizer) said:
“For more than four years Israel has continued its occupation of the Lebanese part of Ghajar in addition to thousands of Israeli violations to Lebanon’s sovereignty by air, land or sea and violations to articles of [UN Security Council] resolution 1701.”
Separately, the Lebanese Army is receiving aid from both the Russians and the United States. In the case of the U.S., Congress is finally convinced any aid we send, such as helicopters, armored personnel carriers, rifles and ammunition will not fall into the hands of Hizbullah.
Iraq: The Sunnis who had walked out of parliament returned as they received assurances four members who had been banned would be reinstated despite prior connections to Saddam’s regime. Otherwise, many are upset the ‘new’ government is really just more of the same with Prime Minister al-Maliki and President Talibani in their same positions for another term while few improvements in the lives of Iraqis have taken place.
China: The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2010 report warns that a potential confrontation with Beijing over Taiwan could lead to Chinese missile assaults on U.S. ships and bases. Specifically, China has the ability to take out five of the six U.S. military outposts in Asia with repeated missile assaults. Two U.S. Air Force bases in South Korea could each be wiped out by an attack with 350 cruise missiles and 480 short-and medium-range ballistic missiles, according to the report. Three bases in Japan, 525 to 680 miles from China – could be destroyed with less force. Only Guam, 1,800 miles from China, is immune as of today.
The above is important not just because of the tensions that could easily exist between the U.S. and China for the next decade, for starters, but also because while relations between Beijing and Taipei have improved greatly on the economic front, Taiwan’s leadership is still wary that China is merely trying to undermine Taiwanese sovereignty through its current reconciliation efforts. For example, Taiwan’s President Ma complained that a few weeks ago at a Tokyo film festival, the Chinese delegation demanded that Taiwan participate in the event under the name “China Taiwan” rather than the more ambiguous “Chinese Taipei.” It may not sound like much of a difference, but in these parts it’s huge (the former name makes it look like China controls Taiwan) and President Ma said, “If one or two more similar incidents take place again, they may destroy the economic benefits” derived from recent agreements between the two.
As of Friday, police had detained 8 people in Shanghai, unlicensed welders, as a result of a high-rise apartment fire that killed 58. The welders ignited flammable nylon netting and bamboo on the scaffolding surrounding the building which was supposedly being given an energy-saving renovation. The fire, aside from shining a light on lax safety standards, also exposed the insufficient capabilities of the firemen, who could not get water to the upper floors, let alone there is no easy escape mechanism for those living on such levels.
North / South Korea: The two sides have agreed to hold talks inside South Korea for the first time in almost three years, though there are still reports the North could be preparing its third nuclear weapons test.
Russia: Moscow is furious over the extradition from Thailand to the United States of suspected arms dealer Viktor Bout, a former Russian air force officer who is said to be a billionaire. Bout, known as the “Merchant of Death” for his arms trafficking activities in Colombia, Africa and the Middle East, was whisked out of Bangkok, where he had been detained since a 2008 sting operation. Some believe the reason why the Russians were so hot to get him back (they had been bribing the Thai government with sales of cheap oil, for example) is because Bout supposedly has sensitive information that could prove damaging to senior Russian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, the man I’ve said could be behind a coup some day.
But then you have the fate of the New START arms reduction treaty, which Republicans in the Senate (where it needs a 2/3s vote for passage) are attempting to torpedo by holding off a vote until the new Senate adjourns in January. I am for passage, not because I know all the details but because I trust the likes of Indiana Republican Senator Richard Lugar, who has long called for the treaty to be approved.
“New START, whatever its flaws, is not a threat to U.S. security. The three previous arms-control treaties, all negotiated by Republican presidents, cut deployed nuclear weapons from near 12,000 to around 2,000. New START reduces the totals to 1,550. Passing it will neither produce a nuclear-free utopia nor disarm the United States.
“But blocking the treaty will produce three unfortunate results: It will strengthen Vladimir Putin, let the Obama administration off the hook when Russia misbehaves and set up Republicans as the fall guy if and when U.S.-Russian relations go south.
“And if relations with Russia do sour, as I expect, it will be important that the record be clear as to why….
“(Imagine) if Republicans refuse to pass the treaty before this downward trend even begins. Every negative turn in the relationship, each unhelpful Russian action, and every further blow against liberal and democratic forces in Russia will be attributed to the Republican ‘sabotage’ of U.S.-Russian relations. In fact, administration officials have begun to set up this narrative – ‘U.S. Election Could Derail Relations With Russia’ was the headline of a recent spoon-fed New York Times story. Under this narrative, whatever went right with the relationship was the result of the brilliant ‘reset.’ Whatever goes wrong will be Republicans’ fault….
“All this is a big price to pay to derail such a minor treaty….
“This is a moment for Republicans to lift themselves above tactics and think strategically. It’s a good first step toward governing.”
Hillary Rodham Clinton and Robert M. Gates / Washington Post
“For decades, American inspectors have monitored Russian nuclear forces, putting into practice President Ronald Reagan’s favorite maxim, ‘Trust, but verify.’ But since the old START Treaty expired last December, we have relied on trust alone. Until a new treaty comes into force, our inspectors will not have access to Russian missile silos and the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals will lack the stability that comes with a rigorous inspection regime.”
New START “will not limit our ability to develop and deploy the most effective missile defenses to protect America’s forces and territory, and to enhance the security of our allies and partners….
“It will not restrict our ability to modernize our nuclear forces….To sustain and modernize these systems, the administration has proposed spending well over $100 billion during the next decade….
“Every president since the beginning of the Cold War has opted for verifiable arms control deals. Each time, the Senate has backed these treaties by overwhelming margins. The START Treaty, negotiated by Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, was approved in 1992 by 93 votes to 6. The Moscow Treaty, negotiated by President George W. Bush, was approved 95 to 0 in 2003.
“The New START Treaty also deserves prompt ratification. Our national security depends on it.”
But on another matter, the Kremlin is once again showing its true colors as it has joined China in boycotting next month’s Nobel Peace Prize ceremony when Liu Xiaobo will be honored. As noted by the London Times’ Tony Halpin, “The move will be seen as an international power play, against the causes of democracy and human rights.”
Liu is serving an 11-year sentence for subversion, while his wife was placed under house arrest after the award was announced. There are also concerns about her well-being.
Burma: Aung San Suu Kyi called for a “non-violent revolution” as in her first week of freedom after her latest stint in house detention she set about rebuilding her opposition movement. She said she welcomed any talks with the military regime.
“I don’t want to see the military falling. I want to see the military rising to dignified heights of professionalism and true patriotism.
“I think it’s quite obvious what the people want; the people just want better lives based on security and on freedom.”
The world now waits to see how the thugs running the country react to Suu Kyi’s latest efforts to bring democracy to the people.
Haiti: The rapidly rising death toll from the cholera outbreak is unclear but what the earthquake didn’t do, cholera might and that is cause a full-blown revolt against the government (that which calls itself the government in this hellhole). Said one U.S. microbiologist, now that the disease has a foothold, it will be impossible to eradicate without permanent access to clean water. Relief agencies are overwhelmed and now you have the rioting as Nepalese peacekeepers are blamed for the medical emergency.
Random Musings
–The week started with the report that the Obama administration had decided to hold off on a trial for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of 9/11, until after the 2012 election, this after earlier in the year the White House was thinking of holding the trial in New York. That caused a huge uproar in the New York area, seeing as the idea of trying Mohammed at the foot of Ground Zero made zero sense, and the administration pulled back.
But while the debate was going on over what to do with Mohammed and other former or existing Guantanamo Bay detainees, a civilian trial for Ahmed Ghailani, a ringleader in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in East Africa, was taking place and on Wednesday, a jury found Ghailani guilty of only one count of conspiracy, for which he faces a minimum of just 20 years in prison when he clearly deserved life without parole and conviction on the charges of killing 224 people, including 12 Americans.
This is a disaster for the Obama administration, which was hoping a conviction on most, if not all charges, would lead to other federal prosecutions of Guantanamo detainees. I mean this guy was close to walking! True, he would have in all likelihood been returned to military custody but imagine the uproar in certain quarters around the world. ‘The jury found him not guilty! This is justice in America?! He should be set free!’
“Is there any better proof that Team Obama’s preferred approach to fighting terror – through civilian courts – is dangerously misguided than yesterday’s acquittal of one of the 1998 U.S. embassy bombers on all but one of 285 charges?….
“He was up to his ears in a plot that took 224 lives, and he’s not a terrorist?
“He might as well have blown up an empty phone booth in some desert.
“That obscene verdict – and the tortured, civilian-court process that led to it – should put an end, once and for all, to any thought of trying other terrorists in similar fashion….
“He helped buy the truck that carried the bomb in the attack on the embassy in Tanzania.
“A key witness had told authorities that he sold Ghailani the explosives.
“Indeed, Ghailani practically confessed to his role in the affair himself. But his statements weren’t introduced at trial.
“Defense lawyers had argued that Ghailani’s disclosures were inadmissible because they were coerced – and prosecutors were loath to risk having their entire case tossed by the judge.
“Under normal circumstances, that’s fine. But this case involved a foreigner making war on America.
“The result: A bloody-handed terrorist will now largely escape accountability for his heinous acts….
“President Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder need to learn from this horrific case.”
“The jurors did do Mr. Holder the favor of convicting Ghailani on the one charge. Had they acquitted him on all counts, Mr. Holder would have been left with the choice of letting a terrorist go free to kill Americans again, or ignoring the verdict and holding him indefinitely in Guantanamo as an enemy combatant. As Judge Kaplan noted during the trial, Ghailani’s ‘status as an ‘enemy combatant’ probably would permit his detention as something akin to a prisoner of war until hostilities between the United States and Al Qaeda and the Taliban end, even if he were found not guilty in this case.’
“Savor that irony. Trying terrorists in civilian courts is supposed to showcase American justice, but even if they’re acquitted they’ll be held indefinitely. Meanwhile, terrorists already know that if they’re captured they’ll get less vigorous interrogation than your average U.S. street criminal, and that they can play their civilian trial for propaganda purposes. Mr. Holder and his boss, the President, have in their ideological willfulness managed to hurt both the reputation of U.S. civilian justice and national security.
“The right policy is to separate the laws of war from the laws of civilian society. Burglars and muggers should be tried in civilian courts. Unlawful enemy combatants captured on the battlefield deserve to be held in Guantanamo and tried before military commissions. And if Mr. Holder can’t tell the difference, he should find a new job.”
–Germany increased security at airports and railway stations in light of “concrete indications” of terrorist attacks being planned for month end, though security forces will remain in a “state of emergency” through the holidays. The interior minister said his country had been tipped off by another, unnamed nation. Germany has never experienced an attack by Muslim militants (though of course key operatives of 9/11 were based in Hamburg) and earlier was dismissive of American warnings of attacks, but apparently the government’s attitude has changed. Of particular concern are Germany’s popular Christmas markets.
–Defense Secretary Gates said the cyber terrorism threat is “huge” and a “considerable current threat.” Defense estimates that over 100 foreign intelligence organizations have attempted to break into U.S. networks. Gates notes, “The key is the only defense that the United States has against nation-states and other potential threats in the cyber-world is the National Security Agency,” referring to the super-secretive arm of DoD that is responsible for national security information and networks, and intercepts foreign communications.
“You cannot replicate the National Security Agency for domestic affairs. There isn’t enough money. There isn’t enough time. And there isn’t enough human talent.”
As Reuters reported: “Last month, (the administration) announced steps to allow greater cooperation between the NSA and the Department of Homeland Security. That includes stationing the DHS’ privacy, civil liberties and legal personnel at the NSA.”
“So you have the domestic security agency, DHS, being able to reach into NSA in a real-time way to get the kind of protection we need,” Gates said. “And my hope is that over time that will lead to better protections for both ‘.gov’ and ‘.com.’”
Tip for the kids out there. Looking for a good career opportunity with benefits? And with real professional satisfaction? It’s staring you in the face.
–I don’t understand congressional Democrats. How the heck could they keep Nancy Pelosi in power as minority leader? After two days of intense meetings, Pelosi said:
“This is an experienced, diverse leadership team that is very strong. It is a team that took us to victory in ’05 and ’06 and will take us to victory again. In the meantime, I would say to the American people: We extend a hand of friendship to the Republicans; we look forward to hearing their ideas on job creation and deficit reduction.”
But liberal Congressman Bill Pascrell Jr. of New Jersey said, “So far there hasn’t been the optical sign that people are looking for – that they get it.” Pascrell voted for Pelosi but he was one of 68 Democrats who tried to put off the leadership vote until Dec. 8 so there’d be more time to consider other options, such as Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.) who offered himself as a ‘token’ opponent to Pelosi and lost 150 to 43.
So now it’s the 70-year-old Pelosi, 71-year-old Steny Hoyer, who remains no. 2, and no. 3 James Clyburn, 71, who as the Washington Post put it, “represent one of the oldest leadership teams ever selected by a congressional party caucus. On the GOP side, Rep. Eric Cantor, 47, currently (incoming Speaker John) Boehner’s second in command, will take Hoyer’s job of majority leader. And Rep. Kevin McCarthy, 45, the head of recruitment for the Republican Class of 2010, will become majority whip, the chief vote-counting job now filled by Clyburn.”
“In the two weeks since the election, Pelosi has expressed no public regrets about her decisions and has not given any sense, in public statements or in private talks with fellow Democrats, that a new approach may be in the works. Indeed, the only improvement that Pelosi allies have advocated is for Democrats to offer a more vigorous defense of their embattled leader against GOP attacks.”
Back to the GOP, it has 85 new members, so Boehner created two seats at the leadership table for them…Tim Scott (S.C.), one of two African-American Republicans in Congress, and Kristi Noem (S.D.), who will give fellow Republican Michelle Bachmann competition when it comes to airtime with Sean Hannity. [Not going to explain myself…wouldn’t be prudent.]
Scott, in particular, could be a superstar in the making, especially in terms of countering the Obama factor in 2012. Look for him to gain a high profile by next summer.
–Meanwhile, Senate Republicans voted to abandon the use of earmarks, that odious practice of taking care of one’s district with special projects. They are proposing a two-year moratorium, thus putting pressure on Senate Democrats, who like their Republican brethren enjoy pigging out at the trough. President Obama has previously said he’d veto any spending bill containing earmarks. But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said, “I am not going, personally, going to back off bringing stuff back to Nevada.”
To be fair, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had been for earmarks as well, but he agreed to the moratorium, with both Reid and McConnell having cited their ability to deliver the goods during election campaigns.
–Democratic Congressman Charles Rangel won a 21st-term with 80 percent of the vote on Nov. 2, but on Tuesday he was convicted by the House Ethics Committee of 11 counts, including failing to report rental income, improper use of a rent-stabilized apartment and soliciting charitable donations from people with business before Congress. On Thursday, the committee voted 9 to 1 to recommended censure, which is just below expulsion, and it now goes before the full House probably the week after Thanksgiving. But the 80-year-old Rangel didn’t give in easily.
“ ‘How can anyone have confidence in the decision of the Ethics Subcommittee when I was deprived of due process rights, right to counsel and was not even in the room?’ Rangel asked.
“But he wasn’t ‘in the room’ when the ethics panel considered his case Monday because he had announced a boycott of the proceedings and walked out.
“ ‘I can only hope that the full committee will treat me more fairly, and take into account my entire 40 years of service to the Congress before making any decisions on sanctions.’
“Well, we can only hope that someday soon Rangel will ‘fess up – and just stop whining. It’s unbecoming.
“Yesterday’s verdict made official what everyone has long known – that Charlie Rangel is just another corrupt, old pol.
“Again, he didn’t even bother to contest the charges, many of which were first made public by The Post.
“Rangel’s violations included failing to pay taxes and to fully disclose income and assets; using a rent-stabilized apartment as a campaign office; soliciting funds from folks with business before his committee, and several others.
“A weasel to the end, he now claims he was unfairly convicted.
“Rangel deserves to be drop-kicked right off Capitol Hill. But Congress takes care of its own, so no one should expect more than a mild rebuke.
–Colin Powell told Larry King that President Obama had overreached. “He should have focused on the economy…to the exclusion of most everything else domestically. When you’re starting out as a president, you have to figure out (what) is most important.”
As to the nation’s future, Powell said, “The American people still believe in this country. What they’re waiting for is for the political leaders in Washington to get on with the solution to problems and not continue to argue with each other. The next year is going to be very important.”
–Sarah Palin, in an interview with Barbara Walters, said she could defeat Barack Obama in 2012 and that she was “looking at the lay of the land.” Palin said she was “trying to figure that out, if it’s a good thing for the country, for the discourse, for my family, if it’s a good thing.”
As for her daughter Bristol’s appearance on “Dancing With the Stars,” a Wisconsin man was so incensed with her performance, he blasted his television with a shotgun. Granted, 67-year-old Steven Cowan evidently suffers from bipolar disorder, according to his wife, but Mr. Cowan was expressing a view shared by others, from what I’ve read, not being a viewer of DWTS myself.
Weeks ago our own Dr. Bortrum, who does watch it, first told me about the conspiracy theories surrounding Bristol and her lackluster performances vs. the likes of Brandy and Rick Fox, who outpointed the kid, but with half the final tally consisting of the audience vote, Mamma Grizzly’s supporters have apparently overwhelmed the system. Bristol said voters like her “because I started with no experience in dancing or performing at all, and I’ve come a long way.”
“Clearly, Bristol’s ties to Sarah…as well as websites such as conservatives4palin.com and Hillbuzz.org, which have shown readers how and where to vote, have helped. Hillbuzz editor Kevin DuJan has been promoting her DWTS run since the season’s debut. He has personally voted for Bristol ‘hundreds of times’ via 40 e-mail addresses. ‘Each address is allowed to vote 10 times. You can also telephone. You can easily vote hundreds of times if you want to take the time to do it,’ says DuJan.”
Looks like a lot of losers in this country do indeed have the time. You could say this is yet another Sign of the Apocalypse.
–Back in Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski became the first Senate candidate since Strom Thurmond in 1954 to win a write-in campaign, emerging victorious over her tea party rival Joe Miller, who with Sarah Palin’s support had defeated Murkowski in the GOP primary. So Murkowski now sits again with her Republican colleagues who shunned her when she chose not to accept the primary verdict and launched the independent bid.
–And back to the president, John Podhoretz / New York Post:
“President Obama sounded a bizarre note upon his return home on Sunday [from Asia] when asked about upcoming negotiations with Republicans in Congress: ‘They’re still flush with victory, having run a strategy that was all about saying no,’ he said.
“The thing is it doesn’t matter what the GOP strategy was in the election’s run-up. What matters is what the voters said by the way they cast their votes. It was the voters who said no.
“A remarkably original analysis of election results by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research makes this not just an assertion but a matter of fact. The study demonstrates that more than 20 seats lost by Democrats – at least a third of the overall loss – went to the GOP as a result of liberal policy votes….
“Yes, he inherited a mess. But over the 20 months of his presidency he championed dramatic and expensive policy efforts to heal the economy – $863 billion worth of stimulus provisions and a hundred other smaller steps. Those have proved ineffective at best and at worst have served as a drag on recovery – as have other policies, in particular healthcare reform and the uncertainty about the future it has created for businesses large and small….
“(The) president may be living in the realm of the delusional when it comes to the results of the election. ‘I am very confident that the American people were not issuing a mandate for gridlock,’ he said on Sunday.
“Really? Right now, ‘a mandate for gridlock’ would be the most generous possible interpretation of the election results, as far as Obama is concerned. ‘A major public revolt’ would be less charitable – and more accurate.”
“(Obama) reacted to the election’s outcome in a way that suggested he’s still in his own world, still seeing a reality no one else is seeing. The problem wasn’t his policies, but that he didn’t explain them well. It wasn’t healthcare reform, it was his failed attempt to popularize it. His problem was that he was not political enough. He was too substantive, too serious. Americans have been under stress, and people under stress don’t think clearly, and so they couldn’t see the size of his achievements.
“He sounded like a man who couldn’t see what was obvious to everyone else, and once again made his political adversaries seem in comparison, more realistic, more clear-sighted and responsive to public opinion. And he did this while everyone was watching. Again, what a gift.”
“Beijing provokes clashes with the navies of both Indonesia and Japan as part of a bid to claim the South China Sea. Tokyo is in a serious diplomatic row with Russia over the South Kuril islands, a leftover dispute from 1945. There are credible fears that Tehran and Damascus will use the anticipated indictment of Hizbullah figures by a UN tribunal to overthrow the elected Lebanese government. Managua is attempting to annex a sliver of Costa Rica, a nation much too virtuous to have an army of its own. And speaking of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is setting himself up as another Hugo Chavez by running, unconstitutionally, for another term. Both men are friends and allies of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
“About all of this, the Obama administration has basically done nothing. As Sarah Palin might say: How’s that multi-poley stuff workin’ out for ya?…
“Last week, Mr. Obama was so resoundingly rebuffed by other leaders at the G20 summit in Seoul that even the New York Times noticed: Mr. Obama, the paper wrote, faced ‘stiff challenges…from the leaders of China, Britain, Germany and Brazil.’ His administration has now been chastised or belittled by everyone from the Supreme Leader of Iran to the finance minister of Germany to the president of France to the dictator of Syria. What does it mean for global order when the world figures out that the U.S. president is someone who’s willing to take no for an answer?….
“We are now at risk of entering a period – perhaps a decade, perhaps a half-century – of global disorder, brought about by a combination of weaker U.S. might and even weaker U.S. will. The last time we saw something like it was exactly a century ago. Winston Churchill wrote a book about it: ‘The World Crisis, 1911-1918.’ Available in paperback. Worth reading today.”
–Swedish prosecutors said they would seek the arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange after a court approved a request to detain him for questioning in a rape case, going back to August. You know how I feel about this guy. Go Sweden!
–Last Sunday I was going through Spokane airport, waiting in the security line, watching the attractive women being sent through the full-body scanner, without exception, while I was not sent through (nor any other guy), nor given a pat down. ‘Huh,’ I mused. ‘Their buddy must be in the private room catching the view of the girls. Guess they switch off every few hours.’
Of course this new system is beyond absurd. But what really concerns me is when I see someone like Dr. Michael Love, who runs an X-ray lab at the department of biophysics and biophysical chemistry at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, tell AFP:
“They say the risk is minimal, but statistically someone is going to get skin cancer from these X-rays. No exposure to X-rays is considered beneficial. We know X-rays are hazardous, but we have a situation at the airports where people are so eager to fly that they will risk their lives in this manner.”
So I am totally behind the flight crews who are raising as much of a stink as anyone over this latest nuisance. Other scientists have voiced concerns similar to Dr. Love’s. The government claims the scanners have been “tested extensively” and found to meet safety standards, but biochemist John Sedat of the University of California, San Francisco, said “While the dose would be safe if it were distributed throughout the volume of the entire body the dose to the skin may be dangerously high.”
Calling the government’s response “deeply flawed,” Sedat adds: “We still don’t know the beam intensity or other details of their classified system.”
We need “60 Minutes” to blow the lid off this system. For now, the Department of Homeland Security should issue a directive immediately exempting flight crews (on Friday they said pilots will be exempted as of January). And note to the TSA staff in Spokane. Unless you want to be labeled nothing but a bunch of perverts, at least pretend you’re not playing games. Throw a guy, or a 70-year-old woman, in your scanner now and then.
More on the topic…Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post
“The ultimate idiocy is the full-body screening of the pilot. The pilot doesn’t need a bomb or box cutter to bring down a plane. All he has to do is drive it into the water, like the EgyptAir pilot who crashed his plane off Nantucket while intoning ‘I rely on God,’ killing all on board.
“But we must not bring that up. We pretend that we go through this nonsense as a small price paid to ensure the safety of air travel. Rubbish. This has nothing to do with safety – 95 percent of these inspections, searches, shoe removals and pat-downs are ridiculously unnecessary. The only reason we continue to do this is that people are too cowed to even question the absurd taboo against profiling – when the profile of the airline attacker is narrow, concrete, uniquely definable and universally known. So instead of seeking out terrorists, we seek out tubes of gel in stroller pouches.
“The junk man’s revolt marks the point at which a docile public declares that it will tolerate only so much idiocy. Metal detector? Back-of-the-hand pat? Okay. We will swallow hard and pretend airline attackers are randomly distributed to the population.
“But now you insist on a full-body scan, a fairly accurate representation of my naked image to be viewed by a total stranger? Or alternatively, the full-body pat-down, which, as the junk man correctly noted, would be sexual assault if performed by anyone else?
“This time you have gone too far, Big Bro’. The sleeping giant awakes. Take my shoes, remove my belt, waste my time and try my patience. But don’t touch my junk.”
–But talk about intrusive, the tomb of Tycho Brahe, the famous 16th-century Danish astronomer, was opened, over 400 years after his death in 1601, as archaeologists attempt to determine if he was poisoned. Yet it seems in 1901, his body had also been exhumed, at which time samples of his mustache and hair indicated unusually high levels of mercury.
But, since there had been no proper report from the 1901 exhumation, some guy at Aarhus University, Denmark, is leading the team of scientists back to the plot near Prague’s Old Town Square.
So you just know that Brahe, who helped lay the foundations of modern astronomy, was lying there peacefully when the other day he heard some pounding and scraping. ‘Oh for cryin’ out loud! Not again!’ You don’t want to know what his wife said, she having been buried next to Tycho three years after his death.
–At least on the exploration front there is some potential good news. Two scientists, one out of Washington State, the other from Arizona State (so Pac-10ers), have concluded that human travel to Mars could happen much more quickly and cheaply if the missions were made one-way.
“The main point is to get Mars exploration moving,” said the chap from Washington State. As reported by Nicholas K. Geranios of AP:
“Mars is a six-month flight away, possesses surface gravity, an atmosphere, abundant water, carbon dioxide and essential minerals. They propose the missions start by sending two two-person teams, in separate ships, to Mars. More colonists and regular supply ships would follow. The technology already exists, or is within easy reach, they wrote.”
Of course NASA is only planning for round trips, with Saturday stayovers, I imagine, to save on costs. President Obama said he “believed by the mid-2030s that we could send humans to orbit Mars and safely return them to Earth.”
Retired Apollo 14 astronaut Ed Mitchell, who walked on the Moon, said the idea was “premature.”
The Pac-10ers said they are not proposing a “suicide mission.”
“The astronauts would go to Mars with the intention of staying for the rest of their lives, as trailblazers of a permanent human Mars colony.”
They do acknowledge NASA might be a tough sell, so they believe the private sector could be a better place to start.
The scientists contend Mars has abundant resources to help the colonists become self-sufficient over time and that the colony should be next to a large ice cave, to provide shelter from radiation, and monsters, I hasten to add.
–In a survey by the Pew Research Center of 2,691 adults, 39 percent say marriage is becoming obsolete, vs. 28 percent who felt this way when the question was posed by Time magazine in 1978. The census data reflect a declining percentage of married adults: 54 percent in 2010, down from 72 percent in 1960. Your editor has no comment.
–President Obama named a number of recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including Warren Buffet and that old scold, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who really has turned into a royal pain in the ass. Among the others are Democratic Congressman John Lewis (hasn’t he already received like ten of these?), artist Jasper Johns (I thought he was dead), Stan Musial (Yesss!!!), Bill Russell (another good choice), and cellist Yo-Yo Ma (overrated…..just kidding!)
–I’m a big fan of the British monarchy, most of the time, seeing as I’m also on record as wishing George Washington had named himself king, and definitely a fan of William and Harry, so good for Prince William, as he announced he will marry long-term girlfriend Kate Middleton. I don’t need to hear about it every day until the anticipated summer wedding actually takes place, but I’ll be tuning in when it happens. And, yes, it’s a shot in the arm for the institution.
–Finally, William McGurn / Wall Street Journal…on Army Staff Sgt. Salvatore Giunta, who received the Medal of Honor for his heroism in Afghanistan this week.
“Not that he’s ready to be called a hero. ‘I’m not at peace with that at all,’ he said on ’60 Minutes’ Sunday night. ‘And coming and talking about it and people wanting to shake my hand because of it, it hurts me because it’s not what I want. And to be with so many people doing so much stuff and then to be singled out…’
“Sgt. Giunta’s words, of course, remind us that he does not need this ceremony. The ceremony is for the rest of us. It reminds us of the sacrifices made so we can sleep easy at night – and of the kind of fighting man our society has produced.
“What kind of man is that? When we think of military heroism, we may think of Rambos decorated for great damage inflicted on the enemy. In fact, the opposite is true. Every Medal of Honor from these wars [Afghanistan and Iraq] has been an effort to save life. Even more telling, each specifically recognizes bravery that cannot be commanded.
“Of the eight who have earned it, three – Army Pfc. Ross McGinniss, Navy Petty Officer Michael Monsoor, Marine Cpl. Jason Dunham – threw themselves on grenades to protect their comrades. Navy Lt. Michael Murphy knowingly exposed himself to enemy fire so he could call in help for his team.
“Army Staff Sgt. Jared Monti died trying to rescue a fellow soldier. Army Staff Sgt. Robert Miller was killed while diverting gunfire from Taliban forces so his team could carry their commander to safety. Army Sgt. First Class Paul Ray Smith – the first from these wars to earn the Medal – took on an overwhelming Iraqi force from a machine gun atop a disabled armored personnel carrier, allowing the safe withdrawal of many wounded American soldiers….
“There was a day when our highest military distinction would be understood for both the rarity and the honor that it is. It no longer seems to work that way. Maybe it’s the price of an all-volunteer professional force. When more of us served, we knew what a Medal of Honor meant….
“Whatever the reason, it’s unrealistic to expect any nation, even a wartime America, to spend every hour commemorating those who defend us. Which is precisely why we have the Medal of Honor, and the public ceremonies attached to it. For a brief, national moment, a warrior is held up to the American people as an example to his fellows – and the embodiment of our highest ideals.
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
Gold closed at $1353
Oil, $81.51
Returns for the week 11/15-11/19
Dow Jones +0.1% [11203]
S&P 500 +0.0% [1199]
S&P MidCap +0.8%
Russell 2000 +0.7%
Nasdaq -0.0% [2518]
Returns for the period 1/1/10-11/19/10
Dow Jones +7.4%
S&P 500 +7.6%
S&P MidCap +17.0%
Russell 2000 +15.8%
Nasdaq +11.0%
Bulls 56.2
Bears 20.2 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence…widest spread since end of 2007, not a good sign if you’re a contrarian]
Have a great week. Happy Thanksgiving!
Brian Trumbore
