Merry Christmas!
Wall Street
Can I be honest for a second, especially seeing as once again I’m not after a Pulitzer? There is no worse day for my schedule than Christmas falling on a Saturday. Now I could have just taken the week off, but seeing as how I’ve taken one break in over 13 years since I started writing this commentary for PIMCO in 1997, I can’t start now.
OK, that’s my selfish rant for today. After I finish this bit I’m going to celebrate Christmas Eve with family members and then Christmas Day I host so I don’t want to leave the impression I’m shut in here, drowning my sorrows in Yuengling (I’ll begin doing that after I go to post Christmas morning).
Just half kidding, friends! Actually, I’m already working on a yearend review for next time that will be as comprehensive as anything I’ve written (which doesn’t mean it will be the lengthiest, but then it all depends on how well the world cooperates this coming holiday week).
For now I’ll try to be brief in my opening segment. I am still wrestling with a prediction for 2011. No doubt there are lots of reasons to be optimistic. The economic news is improving. Third quarter GDP, for example, was revised slightly upward to 2.6%, and manufacturing figures the past few months have been on the upswing (though this past week’s Nov. release on durable goods was -0.7%).
We also know there is a ton of stimulus hitting the first of the year, namely the $858 billion tax-cut extension bill with its accompanying 2% payroll tax cut and an extension of unemployment insurance benefits that go right back into the economy. Plus the Federal Reserve continues merrily along with its quantitative easing, part deux, and businesses, while not exactly hiring yet, do seem amenable to invest more in plant and equipment, which in turn will eventually lead to more jobs.
But there is an awful lot that remains highly troubling, even as every economist in the land ratchets up their 2011 forecasts. It’s still all about housing and jobs, after all, and while the outlook on the latter should improve soon, the former, housing, is far from a sustainable recovery.
And then you have the issue of our national debt and a looming debate in the new Congress over raising the ceiling on same. But far more on all of this next week.
For now, we have to give President Obama his due. The Chosen One recovered from his “shellacking” to win major victories in a lame-duck Congress on not only the tax-cut extension (and its stealth massive stimulus attachment), but the Senate voted 71-26 to approve his pet New START arms control treaty with our great buddies, the Russians, a bill to finally fully fund the future medical requirements of the 9/11 first responders working on the pile was passed, and we had repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.” As the president said at a triumphant press conference on Tuesday, the flurry of activity at yearend proved we were “not doomed to endless gridlock." Coupled with his earlier achievements on healthcare reform and legislation to crack down on Wall Street, Obama has reason to be smug, not that he already isn’t 365 days a year.
As to whether any of the above is really a good thing for America in the long run, that’s a different question. I don’t have a problem with New START and supported it from the beginning, and the tax-cut extension legislation, painful as it is from a deficit standpoint, is a classic compromise with features that are needed to ensure the economic recovery sticks.
I have no comment on “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” because I’m not in the military, except that repeal was inevitable. And we don’t know how the whole Wall Street reform bill will shake out as yet, but certainly aspects of it were needed.
As for healthcare reform, I’m in the camp that maintains large portions of it (but not all) are disastrous and we’ll wait to see if a new Congress, working with the administration, can amend the parts that threaten to kill us financially, both individuals and the federal government.
President Obama, despite seeing Lincoln when he looks at himself in the mirror, also still has a long ways to go before fulfilling his 2008 campaign promises; items such as a comprehensive energy program, immigration reform, and taxing the rich, plus I would offer his foreign policy, while not the disaster some on the right are painting it, is far from successful and threatens to unravel at a moment’s notice. Much more on this topic next time.
What Republicans do have to concede, though, is that Obama’s approval ratings are heading back up. Not to inauguration levels, but certainly back above 50%. At least in the short term.
They could approach 55% plus, though, if he tackles the deficit issue in a true bipartisan fashion. Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Virginia Democrat Mark Warner announced they would introduce legislation early next year mirroring the deficit commission’s recent recommendation to slash $3.9 trillion from budget deficits by 2020. President Obama must, and will, embrace the commission as well, at least in broad brush terms in his State of the Union Address. Were the financial markets to see that an earnest effort is being made to control federal spending, stocks will soar.
But for now I just want to touch on an issue that became a hot button one on Wall Street this week, that being analyst Meredith Whitney’s prediction on 60 Minutes and then in various interviews (both before and after) that the country faces a huge municipal debt crisis with up to 50 to 100 cities defaulting over the next 18 months.
Immediately, various commentators and money managers skewered Ms. Whitney, saying her numbers just don’t add up and that while there would be selective failures, nothing that would cause systemic failure in the financial system.
I tend to believe the naysayers. Recall, I stood steadfast in proclaiming that residential housing was the issue, not commercial real estate, and I was right in terms of the former’s true economic impact and the wealth effect. I used the example that no one was standing around at cocktail parties bitching about the empty office building in the area, but they sure as hell were about the value of their own home, or the impact of a foreclosure on the entire neighborhood’s prices.
I see the same thing taking place in the muni market. There will be selective pain, but nothing systemic.
What the week’s debate was missing, or at least failing to include in the talking points, is that, yes, state and local governments are sick…very, very sick. This means they aren’t going to be hiring like they did in the past. In fact, they are laying people off, as you all are seeing in your communities today. The public sector has been a key lynchpin of our economy (not necessarily for the good) and now it’s taking it on the chin in a big fashion.
What this means, of course, is that when you paint a rosy picture for future growth, don’t forget to include the very important factor of a large segment of the population facing the potential loss of their once seemingly safe job, or cuts in wages and/or pension benefits. I’m not sure if we’ll achieve the 3% to 4% growth rates now projected for 2011, but I do know state and local government hiring (as well as federal) won’t be a support.
As for pension benefits and the public sector, I was at a Christmas dinner for this service organization I’m involved in the other night and we have a number of members who are former city workers (ex-police) that are now gainfully employed in other state or local government capacities…i.e., double-dipping. [The average pension in New Jersey for a police officer is $73,500.] It’s kind of funny. Attitudes are changing rapidly and my two friends in particular are very sheepish when money discussions dominate the table. Hey, they did nothing wrong. They played by the rules. But most of the states and municipalities can no longer afford these future massive cash payments. They may not default, Ms. Whitney, but they sure as hell are going to have to cut benefits to avoid same.
And so I also get a kick out of those talking about Obama, the Democrats and class warfare, rich vs. poor. To me the bigger issue is public vs. private…which is its own class warfare. This is also why we desperately need a massive overhaul of the tax system to simplify it, which would largely take the class warfare, rich vs. poor, angle out of the debate…but leave us with public vs. private.
When you talk of the pension issue, often it also is about unfunded liabilities, which was the source of many an article in just the past week. “Pensions Push Taxes Higher” read one headline in the Wall Street Journal.
“In Pennsylvania, the township of Upper Moreland is bumping up property taxes for residents by 13.6% in 2011. Next door the city of Philadelphia this year increased the tax 9.9%.”
This, in and of itself, is not necessarily unusual. Property taxes fund local government, police and fire, schools, etc. But what’s different this time is the increases are almost solely to fund pensions, because as you’ve seen in your own communities, most school budgets certainly aren’t going up, and services like police and fire are being cut (or at least not increased as was once automatic).
We have massive unfunded liabilities from the federal government on down. The Journal had a story on my home state.
“New Jersey’s pension gap grew to $53.9 billion in the last fiscal year, up from $45.8 billion, thanks to market losses and a lack of state funding….
“Gov. Chris Christie’s administration said the gap, which reflected the state’s investment positions as of June 30 [Ed. Things are a bit better today owing to the rally in equities since then], highlighted the need for proposed cuts to current public workers’ pensions.
“The new calculations mean the state has 62% of the money it needs to pay retirement benefits promised to more than 720,000 state and local workers over the next decade, down from 66% a year earlier.”
It’s a mess. But to those debating Ms. Whitney and her stance on future defaults, the preceding, and below, is the real gist of the argument, Charlie Brown.
“Whatever the ultimate costs, (current pensions) threaten future levels of public services. The generous benefits encourage workers to retire in their late 50s or early 60s after 25 years of service. The health benefits typically provide coverage until retirees qualify for Medicare at 65. To pay for unfunded benefits, government services must either be cut or taxes raised. How much is unclear. Even low estimates by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College indicate that annual pension payments for some states could roughly double. In Illinois, they could go from 4.5 percent of spending to 8.7 percent. Covering retiree health benefits would add to that.
“So support for schools, police, roads and other state and local activities is undermined by careless – or corrupt – bargains between politicians and their public-worker unions. Promises of generous future retirement benefits were expedient contract sweeteners, with most costs conveniently deferred. Even when pension contributions were supposed to be made, they were often reduced or postponed when budgets were tight. If these arrangements look familiar, they should. The U.S. auto industry adopted the same model; the costs helped bankrupt General Motors and Chrysler.
“What states and localities can do about this is limited. Pension promises to existing employees are probably legally inviolate. Retiree health benefits are apparently less so and should be reduced or eliminated to limit incentives for early retirement. Even if politicians manage this arduous feat, past decisions will burden the future. Along with an unwillingness to curb Social Security and Medicare costs, America’s leaders have created another way to cheat their children.”
Street Bytes
–It was another up week for stocks, the fourth in a row for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and fifth for Nasdaq as the major averages are all at pre-Lehman Brothers crisis points established in Sept. 2008. A remarkable rally for which I’ll have a lot of figures next time. For now, consider that the S&P is up 86% off its low set on March 9, 2009. Sadly, this was a time when many investors were in the process of throwing in the towel. [It was also when your editor was adamant that the market would bounce back. I missed badly on my 2010 prediction, but 2009 was as good a year as I’ve had.]
For all the talk of China financing our deficits and how the day of reckoning is coming when they will dump their Treasury holdings (which would only be shooting themselves in the foot but is conceivable for domestic political consumption, i.e., to stoke nationalism), China increased its position 2.3% in October to $906.8 billion, the highest level since November of last year. And China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Friday that there are no quick fixes for Europe’s debt crisis and China must be on its guard in case the problem escalates, especially in January and February; this as other Chinese officials were pumping up the euro for public consumption the past few days. It’s unclear just how much of China’s $2.65 trillion reserves are in the euro (minus $900 billion in Treasuries, for starters).
–Ireland nationalized its fourth bank, Allied Irish Bank, with the government now controlling 92 or 93 percent of it. Authorities are trying to prevent shareholders from being wiped out entirely but they are down about 98 percent since the peak in 2007.
–Much of Europe appeared to be at a standstill this week due to the awful weather, with December slated to become the coldest on record in Ireland and the U.K., for starters. I saw some lines for the Eurostar, which had inexplicable problems, of some seven hours out in the freezing cold just to get inside the terminal (to then find out you couldn’t get on one of the few trains running). On Tuesday, Dublin’s airport had its worst day in 30 years.
That said, some are still pretty optimistic that the impact on Christmas sales was minimal, helped in no small part by online shopping…that is if the package could be delivered on time, which was doubtful given some of the road conditions.
[China also had record-breaking cold and snow in many parts that hurt the delivery of foodstuffs at the worst possible time due to the rising cost of produce before the new delays hurt supply further.]
–The Japanese government expressed optimism its economy could grow 1.5% in 2011. This is what passes for euphoria here the past 20 years. But there’s no guarantee deflation won’t continue.
–The government of Spain is looking to slash subsidies to the solar industry, including for power plants, by 30% as it seeks to cut expenses amidst its austerity drive, but this would potentially cause a wave of defaults as it endangers both existing projects and ones in the development phase.
The real problem is the country now has six times the solar capacity it had planned on by this point and last year handed out some $4 billion in subsidies.
–The Today Show aired a devastating report on crime in the Caribbean. I always knew it was bad, even as the governments tried to cover it up, but I didn’t know the Caribbean region has the world’s highest murder rate and as you’ve seen in some high-profile cases the past few years, it’s not just locals who are the victims. It’s all about drugs and corruption and aside from the potential impact on tourism, now you have ex-pats putting their long-cherished homes on the market because it’s becoming too dangerous.
–New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed civil fraud charges against Ernst & Young for its alleged role in the collapse of Lehman Brothers, saying it helped the investment bank mislead investors as to the health of Lehman’s books, enabling a “major accounting fraud” by “allowing Lehman to move as much as $50 billion of its balance sheet in exchange for cash toward the end of each fiscal quarter to make it seem as if the broker was less leveraged than it was,” as reported by the New York Post. This is the first time a major accounting firm has been targeted for its role in the financial crisis. Ernst & Young reportedly earned $100 million in fees for its work with Lehman from 2001 through 2008.
–Chinese economist Ba Shusong of the State Council estimates world economic growth for 2010 will come in at 4.5% with 60% of that coming from the emerging markets. China is expected to contribute 20%, while the United States, European Union and Japan will combine for 25%.
–The International Monetary Fund announced it completed its program of gold sales, 403 tons worth, or equal to 10% of annual demand, thus removing what was a bearish restraint on the gold market. While gold has had a phenomenal 10-year run, it is still below its inflation adjusted peak of $2,300 set in 1980, which is why I’ve always maintained the story isn’t an inflation one. It’s about instability in the global financial system, growing demand in India and China, and speculation. I have zero problem with what has been going on with gold, even though I have not participated in the run personally.
[And for all the talk on commodities in general this year, the CRB Index is up just 16.2% year to date, while Nasdaq is up 17.5%. Just sayin’.]
–The Wall Street Journal reported that “a single trader owns 80% to 90% of the copper sitting in London Metals Exchange warehouses, equal to about half of the world’s exchange-registered copper stockpile and worth about $3 billion.”
The Journal also notes that one trader holds as much as 90% of the exchange’s aluminum stocks, while others hold between 50% to 80% of nickel and zinc. Now this could be a firm holding on behalf of a single trader, so, as Michael Conrad used to say on Hill Street Blues, “Let’s be careful out there.”
[Do you want to feel old? I know you don’t…but I just looked up when Michael Conrad died and it was 27 years ago!]
–You want some good news? Our cars are far safer today than they were when Ralph Nader first made his name with the Corvair. Actually, they’re far safer than they were even last year. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety recognized 66 vehicles with its “top safety pick award” for the 2011 model year vs. 27 selected last year. The top manufacturers are Hyundai Motor Corp. and its affiliate Kia Motors, Volkswagen AG and its Audi brand, all with nine awards, followed by General Motors, Ford and Toyota with eight apiece. Hyundai’s Sonata stood above all of ‘em.
Back to the Corvair, Mr. Nader long ago wrote that the steering column could impale the driver. Normally not a good thing, unless you were wearing a plate of steel around your chest.
–Some of the victims in the Bernie Madoff swindle aren’t exactly ecstatic that trustee Irving Picard is going after the cash with the zeal he is now displaying. For example, as reported by the AP’s David B. Caruso:
“The news that some of Bernard Madoff’s victim’s could be getting half their money back was of little comfort to Richard and Cynthia Friedman, and others who saw their life savings erased in the mammoth fraud.
“Just days earlier, the Long Island couple learned that Richard’s 85-year-old mother was one of hundreds of longtime Madoff clients sued in recent weeks for millions by the trustee handling the case.”
You see, Shirley Friedman, 85 and with Alzheimer’s, had been a Madoff client for many years and her annual withdrawals from his funds exceeded the amount of her late husband’s original investment, so Irving Picard considers this fair game. Friedman owes $3.6 million. Picard acknowledges a large number of the folks like Shirley Friedman were unaware of the Ponzi scheme.
And even though Picard has recaptured vast amounts, including the $7.2 billion from the widow of Florida philanthropist Jeffry Picower, it is far from clear if many of the victims will actually see a dime. As one put it, even if feeder funds like the one he invested in get paid, managers could just use the money to pay off their considerable legal and operating expenses.
Separately, Annette Bongiorno, a despicable pig and Madoff’s former personal assistant, surrendered to U.S. marshals in Florida after her bail was revoked. Her equally disgusting husband threatened reporters covering her arraignment.
Prosecutors said earlier that Bongiorno has $2.4 million in cash, plus access to an undetermined amount of money held by her husband, Rudy Bongiorno, who withdrew about $3.8 million from a Madoff account over the years.
And get this. Maurice Sercarz, one of Bongiorno’s lawyers, said in an interview on Tuesday, “This process has been excruciating for her. Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa – she didn’t want to go in.”
–I recognize I haven’t written much, if anything, on the topic of “net neutrality” and I’m going to defer comment again as the Federal Communications Commission by a 3-2 party (Democratic) vote chose itself to lord over the Web. I’ll just say that as a Journal editorial noted, “More than 300 Members of Congress from both parties have urged the FCC to stand down…That number surely will rise next year.” Which is why I’m holding off. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski, as arrogant as they come, will get his comeuppance by late spring, I suspect.
[The main issue is the ability of Internet service providers to prioritize traffic on their networks. Just understand these are the same companies making massive investments. To cite one example some of you can relate to…look at Verizon Fios. That installer spends 6-7 hours in your home hooking you up, for starters. That’s a huge investment. I think they should be allowed to then do what they want with their network and if you don’t like it, go somewhere else. Which is also why you should read the fine print on your service contract. So…I have after all now commented on ‘net neutrality.’ Carry on…]
–Last week I wrote of a study that said the Gulf of Mexico had come through the oil spill with very little damage, but then a federal report was released that said, while limited, there is heavy contamination in spots close to the BP Macondo well site but at depths unreachable for cleanup. You also still have the issue of the dispersant’s long-term impact. Questions thus remain.
–General Electric has been forced to set aside $500 million to pay for the cleanup of toxic chemicals from the Hudson River, ending one of the longest-running environmental battles in U.S. history. Way back in the 1940s, a GE manufacturing plant spilled PCBs into the Hudson, contaminating the river bottom for 200 miles.
GE has already been dredging since last year, spending $560 million, but progress was hampered after PCBs were found at greater depths and in larger quantities than expected.
PCBs were banned in 1977 after being linked to cancer and the EPA closed the Hudson to fishing.
–Activision Blizzard announced its “Call of Duty: Black Ops” video game had already racked up $1 billion in sales after just 42 days on the market. The company’s previous record was “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2,” which took 64 days to pass the $billion mark. “Avatar” holds the record as the fastest entertainment property to ring up $1 billion in sales, having done so in 20 days. Yes, one is a video game and one a movie, but along with books they all fall under the category entertainment releases, sports fans.
–I forgot to mention last time that Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg was Time’s “Person of the Year,” a good choice, and this week the Financial Times named Apple’s Steve Jobs in the same category, another good one. In part:
“Critics often talk disparagingly of the ‘reality distortion field’ generated by the Apple boss: his ability to convince onlookers that technologies that would seem unformed in other hands have reached a peak of perfection at Apple. Generating this suspension of disbelief is essential to stirring up demand for gadgets most consumers had no idea they needed, and is an art form of which Mr. Jobs has long been the acknowledged master…
“ ‘Steve’s the last of the great builders,’ says Roger McNamee, a Silicon Valley financier who led a recent, failed attempt to rebuild Palm in Apple’s image. ‘What makes him different is that he’s creating jobs and economic activity out of thin air while just about every other CEO in America is working out ways to cut costs and lay people off.’”
–For the first time advertisers will spend more on Internet ads than on print newspaper ads in 2010; $25.8 billion vs. $22.8 billion spent on print, according to eMarketer. Total ad spending in the U.S. is expected to rise 3% this year to $168.5 billion, but spending on print will decline 8.2%, followed by an estimated 6% decline in 2011.
–Dell Inc. Chairman and CEO Michael Dell bought $100 million worth of his own company’s shares a week ago Friday, his largest one-day acquisition in nearly five years. Mr. Dell now holds 232.9 million shares. His wife and the couple’s family trusts and 401(k) hold another 30 million shares. [The stock finished this week at $13.75]
–The SEC has begun an investigation into Mark Hurd’s departure as CEO from Hewlett-Packard. The chief issue is whether Hurd leaked information about HP’s planned acquisition of Electronic Data Systems Corp. to Jodie Fisher, the event coordinator and former soft-porn actress that Hurd swears he didn’t touch, even though she originally filed a sexual harassment complaint against him. Oracle Corp. has since hired Hurd as co-president. Ms. Fisher is somewhere in south Jersey, having reached a private settlement with the dirtball.
–Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein was overheard boasting about the art collection on display in Goldman’s new $1.8 billion headquarters in lower Manhattan.
“Guess how much?” CNBC reported Blankfein bragging to a hedge fund manager and art collector earlier this week. “Three? No. Four? No,” he said. “Five…Five!”
The particular painting was by Ethiopian-born New York artist Julie Mehretu. Go ahead. Google her. You decide. [I prefer my Civil War prints.]
The timing of Blankfein’s comment, of course, couldn’t be worse as he takes in $24 million in deferred stock bonuses from 2007 and 2009 next month and infuriates those who still blast the $10 billion bailout given to the investment bank during the financial crisis. This year Goldman settled with regulators for $550 million on fraud charges.
–Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on the number of back-office employees and middle-level traders on the Street who were used to big yearend bonuses and this time will receive nothing…zero. For some of these employees, though, their base pay was raised significantly as a result of the crisis in order to placate regulators. So in other words, my Wall Street Zero friends, chill out! In most cases the total compensation is essentially the same.
“So what was your bonus, Jim…you haven’t told me yet.”
“What? I didn’t hear you.”
“ZERO! THEY FREAKIN’ PAID YOU ZERO?!! I told the art gallery we were buying a Mehretu this year!!”
[Heh heh…you know, back in the day, like my first two full years on Wall Street, 1983 and ’84, if I remember right my bonuses were all of $3,000 and $5,000 and yet I had a position of major responsibility, in all honesty…running the private placement/tax shelter book, the hot sector then. I played god on doling out big commissions. But when I didn’t receive what I thought I should, I left the place. Then I came back. Then I left again. Then I came back again. In a nutshell, I was the ultimate example of “Never burn your bridges” and eventually things worked out pretty well for me.]
–Some of you from the New York area may have eaten at the popular Upper East Side Italian bistro Il Vagabondo (I have numerous times) and I can’t help but note the 80-year-old owner, Ernie Vogliano, pleaded guilty this week to a multi-million dollar tax evasion scheme that involved shifting $millions around in various UBS Swiss bank accounts (as well as accounts in Liechtenstein, Hong Kong and elsewhere) in order to avoid detection. He settled for $900,000 and a probable year in jail. I’m assuming his fellow inmates will eat well during his stay.
–This is funny…a broker in Missouri made cold-calls pitching the Nuveen Multi-Strategy Income and Growth Fund 2 and telling the person on the other end that “they could expect a 20% to 25% return during (a) six- to eight-month period.” The broker characterized this as a ‘realistic’ and ‘very conservative estimate,’ according to a cease-and-desist order filed against the man’s broker-dealer.
You see, the problem was the guy was calling Missouri securities regulators. [Investment News]
–Boy, I’ve done a ton of shopping these past few weeks on Amazon and once again shares in the company rocket higher going into yearend, yet again the shares will stumble in early January. I love the company. Who doesn’t? But the price/earnings multiple is 74. It hasn’t mattered, except when the overall market was in a bear mode, and Amazon is just a few dollars shy of its all-time high. Oh well…it’s the kind of stock I’ve never invested in. [And I’ve never been in Apple, or Google for similar reasons…now I’m getting very depressed…]
Anyway, Amazon doesn’t release sales figures for its Kindle electronic-book reader but they were reportedly 2.4 million last year and will exceed 8 million in 2010, according to two people who should know that passed it on to Bloomberg. Most analysts are in the 4 to 5 million range.
–CBS News anchor Katie Couric’s 5-year, $15 million a year contract expires in May and there’s already talk she will need to take a rather sizable pay cut if she wants to stay with the network. Ya think? During her time thus far in the anchor chair, the audience for CBS’s nightly newscast has declined faster than at rival telecasts, according to Nielsen. NBC averages 8.59 million viewers a night, ABC 7.47 million, and CBS 5.73 million. But CBS leads the four major broadcast networks in prime-time ratings this season.
–One fast food joint we don’t have in my parts is Kentucky Fried Chicken and it really ticks me off. I can find all the others within a ten-minute drive, but if we had a KFC nearby I’d be there once a week.
So I’m jealous of the Japanese, who have 1,240 KFC locations in the country and the Financial Times noted that beginning back in 1974, KFC Japan launched an incredibly successful advertising campaign that has made eating its meals at Christmas a national custom; specifically Dec. 23, 24 and 25, but especially on Christmas Eve. Sales for the three days equal half normal monthly sales. I mean KFC is so popular for Christmas there that you have to order up to two months in advance.
Foreign Affairs
North Korea: China finally stepped up a bit, it would seem, and attempted to diffuse the crisis on the peninsula, urging Pyongyang to accept international nuclear monitors. But South Korea held its most extensive live-fire drills ever and while the North didn’t retaliate, the rhetoric by week’s end was as bad as ever, threatening a “sacred war” with nukes, while at the same time there are numerous reports the North will carry out a third atomic test next year as a way of bolstering Kim Jong Un, the chubby kid who is taking over for his wacko father with the Marty Allen haircut and the six-inch elevator heels. For his part, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson returned from his trouble-shooting trip to Pyongyang and said the North Koreans had shown a “pragmatic attitude” in his unofficial talks, particularly in terms of allowing inspectors back in.
Speaking of China, it was not happy with Japan’s new National Defense Program Guidelines that single out China’s growing military power.
“Military modernization by China and its insufficient transparency are matters of concern for the regional and global community,” the guidelines state.
Beijing countered: “China adheres to a path of peaceful development and pursues a national defense policy that is defensive in nature. No country has the right to appoint themselves the representative of the international community and engage in irresponsible naysaying on China’s development,” said a government spokeswoman, Jiang Yu. [She sounds like a tough bitch. Won’t be asking her out for Valentine’s Day!]
Ahem, ahem. So why then, Beijing, are you rushing the development of an aircraft carrier? You don’t build one just to defend your borders or waters. You do it to project power far beyond them.
And back to North Korea, I caught this in an editorial in a Chinese state paper.
“As for China, it does not want to see any major crisis on the Korean Peninsula. But China is never going to bend to any challenge from outside. Should the troubled waters of the peninsula wet China’s feet, somebody else may already be drowning.”
Iraq: Parliament approved a new government that includes all major factions after nine months of deadlock following March elections. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was reappointed for a second term. But the key ministries of interior, defense and national security remain unfilled.
The man who actually captured the most votes in the election, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, is head of the newly created National Council for Strategic Policies which is intended to oversee foreign policy and security issues, but it’s far from clear just how much power it will have. There are also zero women among the cabinet members chosen thus far.
Then you have the Sadrist alliance, which holds 40 of Parliament’s 325 seats. Sadrist as in anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who is insisting on the deputy prime minister slot (not for himself). Sadr is banning his followers from accepting jobs with foreign oil companies working in southern Iraq. There is a Saturday deadline to fill all the minister positions.
“More significant is the patience Iraqis have demonstrated awaiting the formation of a government. Now it seems they finally have one, with a deal in which Mr. Allawi’s party will be given 11 of the 38 posts…
“As with everything in Iraq, the deal could fall apart. But a government that gives Mr. Allawi a serious security portfolio is not about to become a satrap of Tehran, not that this was ever a likely prospect in an Arab state even with Sadr in the government. A better question is whether the U.S. will be able to maintain its strategic influence in the country even as the remaining U.S. forces are set to depart in a year. If the Obama Administration is serious about building Iraq as a bulwark against Iran, it ought to signal its desire to extend the U.S. military presence. Most Iraqis would welcome it.
“Edmund Burke said that all government ‘is founded on compromise and barter.’ Iraq may still be far from a model of Jeffersonian democracy. But contrary to what some of our friends might say, it understands Burke.”
Nothing about the fate of Iraq’s remaining Christians. The Washington Post had an editorial largely praising the new government and progress made in the country. Also, nothing about the Christians. I don’t get it.
Iraq’s Christians are not celebrating Christmas this year as they live in fear since the assault on a church, Oct. 31, during Sunday Mass that killed 68; that is those Christians who haven’t already fled. On Tuesday, al-Qaeda threatened more attacks on them. Said an archbishop in Kirkuk, “We cannot find a single source of joy that makes us celebrate. The situation of the Christians is bleak.”
I respectfully submit for this lone reason, the United States lost the war. Don’t bother me with arguments to the contrary. But the true litmus test on the success of the new political structure here will be a year from now. If Iraq’s Christians can once again celebrate the birth of Christ in peace, and their numbers are increasing as the faithful return home, then I’ll change my tune.
Afghanistan: Iran prevented nearly 2,000 fuel tanker trucks from crossing into Afghanistan, according to Afghan officials, which threatens to deprive the Kabul government of millions of dollars in customs revenues, let alone jack up fuel prices ahead of winter. The fuel from Iran (about 30% of total imports) is used to heat homes.
And U.S. military commanders have had little success in getting Pakistan to accept expanded raids into Pakistan. But on Meet the Press, Vice President Joe Biden once again inserted foot in mouth when he declared that come July 2011, “It will not be a token amount” of troops leaving, adding that “We’re going to be totally out of there come hell or high water by 2014.” So why wouldn’t the Taliban just wait the U.S. and NATO out? Plus, everyone knows that even after security is handed over to the Afghan Army and police in 2014, they will still require foreign assistance.
“If Mr. Biden really wanted to advance the day when U.S. forces can leave, he would have announced that the U.S. would like to keep air bases at Bagram and Kandahar after 2014. This would signal to everyone that the U.S. won’t let the Taliban return to power and that the Pakistanis should conclude that the U.S. won’t abandon the region like it did at the end of the Cold War.
“As journalists, we appreciate that Mr. Biden’s gaffe-track makes good copy, but our troops aren’t laughing.”
700 foreign troops have been killed in Afghanistan this year, over 500 of which are Americans.
Iran: As WikiLeaks recently proved, the Arab nations “are uniting in their opposition to a common enemy in a way arguably not seen since the pan-Arab nationalism of the 1950s and 1960s led by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser,” notes the National Journal’s James Kitfield. “Besides privately urging the United States to attack a fellow Muslim neighbor, Persian Gulf royals have channeled their fear into a very public buying spree of advanced weapons, most of them U.S.-made, that collectively will top an estimated $120 billion in the next few years.”
Why those are good paying American jobs! the editor facetiously mused.
But the situation is forging closer bilateral relations in the region with the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command on security issues, including counterterrorism and missile defense. [See Saudi assistance on the package bomb case.]
At the same time, however, the United States needs to show progress in dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the Gulf States will begin pursuing their own nuclear agendas. So while the last round of hardened sanctions is working, it’s still not enough to get the Iranians to heel.
Or, as Gen. David Petraeus asserted earlier regarding a potential nuclear-armed Iran or an attack to destroy its nuclear infrastructure, “At some point over the course of this year or next year, there’s going to have to be some very, very hard decisions made on these issues.”
As for the sanctions, they are indeed biting. The government in Tehran was forced to send squads of riot police into the streets to quell disturbances following President Ahmadinejad’s cuts in energy and food subsidies that took effect on Sunday, though these particular cuts were long planned.
On next month’s nuclear talks with the P5+1, Ahmadinejad once again said it would be a historic opportunity to resolve the dispute if the West dropped its policy of confrontation, to which the West said under its collective breath, “Bulls—.”
It is significant, however, that the meeting will be held in Istanbul, only it’s not clear if this will prove to be a positive, negative or just more of the same. Turkey has said its foreign policy is defined as having “zero problems with neighbors.”
Separately, the London Times reported that the Iranian government “is releasing significant al-Qaeda terrorists from jail so that they can help to reorganize its battered structures in border areas of Pakistan.”
On Wednesday, NATO confirmed the first capture in Afghanistan of a member of the elite al-Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps in a raid by U.S. Special Forces in Kandahar on Dec. 18.
Israel: Prime Minister Netanyahu handily beats opposition leader Tzipi Livni in the latest polls, 45% to 25% when the question is who is more fit to lead the country, though Netanyahu’s approval rating has fallen to 38%. And the new three-month stopgap budget measure signed by President Obama this week does not include hundreds of millions for Israeli defense as he promised earlier in the year. The White House said the funds would be added back when a new measure is signed in March, though I’m getting a kick out of Democratic claims the Republicans might trim aid to Israel. The Israel lobby will be out in full force this winter.
David Harris, president of the National Jewish Democratic Council (and a figure heard on the radio from time to time in these parts), charged that “for America to remain engaged as a world leader, and for the sake of Israel’s security, Congress must fully fund foreign aid and aid to Israel together. As the pro-Israel community has said for decades, the two cannot be separated for a host of reasons.”
Incoming GOP House Majority leader Eric Cantor has said in the past that the key is not just to secure American national security interests, but also root out waste. Sounds pretty rational to me. This debate could provide some great theatrics.
Lebanon: Of course the biggest immediate security issue for Israel is not Iran but Lebanon with the pending release of the report from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) that everyone is expecting will indict members of Hizbullah. [*Just to reiterate why I spell Hizbullah as I do while everyone else you see, including all American newspapers, spell it Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Daily Star and the Jerusalem Post both spell it Hizbullah. So years ago I thought, gee, these are the two sides with the biggest vested interest, you’d think they’d get it right!]
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei weighed in this week, dismissing any verdict as “null and void” in remarks that weren’t helpful as tensions simmer. [They haven’t boiled over yet because the indictment isn’t coming until after the holidays.]
Hizbullah has now said, though, it will not react immediately upon release of the draft indictment until it has been confirmed by the trial judge and this could take weeks, or months. Anyway, someone tell Khamenei for me to butt out of Lebanon and mind his own terrorist shop.
Separately, Saudi Arabia and Syria continue to look for a compromise before the indictment is handed down.
I had an interesting discussion with my eye doctor the other day. We’ve known each other a long time and his son is in Mossad and the doctor knows of my travels, particularly to Beirut. So we were having a frank chat on the STL and as the doctor put it, why would anyone in Hizbullah that was indicted show up for a trial? They’re probably out of the country already. That’s sort of common sense, isn’t it?
So my friend Michael Young of the Daily Star (who has lost some friends to assassination) wondered the other day the same thing; what would happen if no one is actually in the dock?
“If I were related to someone killed or injured in the succession of murders and bomb attacks during and after 2005, I would have to start questioning whether the special tribunal will ever give me satisfaction. For some lawyers, the legal process itself is the measure of its own success. In other words a tribunal was set up, following an international investigation; the proper norms and regulations were respected; and the accused will be granted due process. Whether or not the trial leads to the guilty, and punishes them, is less vital than the fact that the institution fulfilled the role it was set up to fulfill.
“From a strictly legal standpoint, that is perfectly defensible. Ultimately, tribunals are not formed under the condition that someone must necessarily be found guilty, except perhaps in totalitarian systems. Due process allows for the alternative that someone who stands accused might be declared innocent.
“However, does that apply if the investigation leading up to the trial was flawed? In other words, if the United Nations inquiry was intentionally stalled, or simply conducted incompetently at a given stage, can we still take so detached, so academic, a view that only the good conduct of the trial matters? The investigation and the trial were always organically related; shortcomings in the first were necessarily going to impact the second. One cannot artificially separate the two.
“And what of the human cost? Trials are not intellectual competitions, particularly criminal trials. People were killed by other people and many have suffered. It was always the right of the families of the victims to expect that everything would be done to ensure that the guilty would be identified and punished. Has everything been done to achieve that outcome? Only an affirmative answer should be the benchmark for success when the special tribunal eventually closes its doors; not the issuing of indictments or scholastic pride in a remote legal process that ends up in a cul-de-sac before an empty courtroom.”
Russia: President Obama declared the passage of New START “the most significant arms control agreement in nearly two decades,” which might be a stretch but as noted above I do not believe this treaty hurts the U.S. and can only help relations with the Kremlin, though that’s really not saying much, seeing as Russia is nothing but a giant Mafia family with nukes these days.
New START, signed by Obama and Medvedev in April, would limit each country’s strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550, down from the current ceiling of 2,200. It also would allow for inspectors to return following the expiration of a previous arms control deal.
On Friday, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, the Duma, gave its initial approval to the treaty with final approval slated for January. Speaking before the vote, President Medvedev praised Obama as a “leader who fulfills his promises.”
“He did a great job, succeeding in his push for the ratification of this very important document…in quite difficult conditions.”
Lastly, jailed Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky lashed out at Vladimir Putin in a newspaper article, calling him “pitiable” and dangerous, this as Khodorkovsky faces another six years in prison on his second trial for embezzlement that is shades of the Show Trials of yore…totally trumped up.
Belarus: President Lukashenko won a fourth term on Monday after a landslide election (a reported 79.7% of the vote), whereupon the opposition launched widespread protests over the vote being rigged and police cracked down, arresting at least 1,000 by most reports. It is perhaps the most significant challenge to Lukashenko’s 16-year rule. One opposition leader, Vladimir Neklyayev, was beaten by police, with the photo clearly showing him with head injuries, yet it seems police then took him from his hospital bed. The head of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek (of Poland) said the incident involving Neklyayev was a “cowardly attack on a defenseless candidate” and “is outrageous and disgraceful.”
The European Union was prepared to offer Belarus aid if the vote was deemed to be fair, but with reports that seven of nine opposition candidates had been jailed, how can they? The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitored the election and in its report said it was “flawed.” The head of the observer mission added, “This election failed to give Belarus the new start it needed…I can only join with Mrs. Neklyayev in demanding to know where all the arrested people and candidates are.”
Lukashenko shot back, “You want to speak to him? He’s in an isolation center. There are 639 people there. You think we would just let them go? The guilty must be held to account.”
As Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post noted, “After a long flirtation with the liberal West and the authoritarian East – the Belarusan dictator has made his choice.”
“This, then, is what the ‘decline of the West’ looks like in the eastern half of Europe: The United States and Europe, out of money and out of ideas, scarcely fund the Belarusan opposition. Russia, flush with oil money once again, has agreed to back Lukashenko and fund his regime. Let’s hope it costs them a lot more than they expect.”
Speaking of Russia, President Medvedev called the situation in Minsk “a domestic affair.”
India/Pakistan: Not for nothing, but these two conducted test launches of various short-range missiles designed to carry nuclear or conventional warheads on back-to-back days, this as India frantically searched for four suspected members of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-taiba in Mumbai.
Ivory Coast: There was an election last month and both candidates claimed victory. President Gbagbo then ordered a crackdown on the man the international community views as the victor, opposition leader Alassane Ouattara. At least 175 have been killed in the succeeding violence as the United Nations, United States, the Africa Union and the European Union all seek to isolate Gbagbo. Civil war is a possibility.
Italy: Suspected anarchists attacked the Chilean and Swiss embassies in Rome injuring two staffers. Investigators were following a possible link with anarchists in Greece. Both the injured were mail workers who opened the packages and received severe injuries to their hands.
Hungary: Here’s a crisis kind of out of left field. Hungary takes up the rotating EU presidency on January 1, but that very day the conservative government of Viktor Orban is set to reintroduce state censorship. Under a law passed on Monday by the Hungarian parliament, all newspapers, magazines, broadcasters and even websites will have to answer to the new National Media and Communications Authority.
This is nuts. It’s very clear. Hungary is breaking several of the laws it signed to when joining the EU; namely freedom of expression and media pluralism are part of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union and the European Convention on Human Rights.
Brazil: Outgoing President Luiz Lula da Silva was forbidden from seeking a third consecutive term so he handpicked his successor, Dilma Rousseff, who then won the election. That’s all well and good.
But now Lula, who leaves office with 87% approval ratings, said this week he might consider returning in four years. So how would you like to be Rousseff?
Random Musings
“Riding the lamest of ducks, President Obama just won the Triple Crown. He fulfilled (1) his most important economic priority, passage of Stimulus II, a.k.a. the tax cut deal (the perfect pre-re-election fiscal sugar high – the piper gets paid in 2013 and beyond); (2) his most important social policy objective, repeal of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’; and (3) his most cherished (achievable) foreign policy goal, ratification of the New START treaty with Russia….
“The great liberal ascendancy of 2008, destined to last 40 years (predicted James Carville), lasted less than two. Yet, the great Republican ascendancy of 2010 lasted less than two months. Republicans will enter the 112th Congress with larger numbers but no longer with the wind – the overwhelming Nov. 2 repudiation of Obama’s social-democratic agenda – at their backs.
“ ‘Harry Reid has eaten our lunch,’ said Sen. Lindsey Graham, lamenting his side’s ‘capitulation’ in the lame-duck session. Yes, but it was less Harry than Barry. Obama came back with a vengeance. His string of lame-duck successes is a singular political achievement. Because of it, the epic battles of the 112th Congress begin on what would have seemed impossible just one month ago – a level playing field.”
–Ordinarily I don’t read Dana Milbank’s column in the Washington Post for various reasons, but this is pretty good.
“It took President Obama fewer than 50 days to go from shellacking to swashbuckling.
“Seven weeks earlier to the day, the president faced harsh questions about his leadership as he took responsibility for Democrats’ loss of the House in the previous day’s election. But the man who faced reporters Tuesday afternoon in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building was treated by his questioners as a conquering colossus – and Obama didn’t mind wearing those shoes.
“ ‘A lot of folks in this town predicted that, after the midterm elections, Washington would be headed for more partisanship and more gridlock,’ he said to a roomful of people who had predicted just that. ‘And instead, this has been a season of progress for the American people.’
“ ‘The most productive post-election period we’ve had in decades.’
“ ‘The most productive two years that we’ve had in generations.’
“ ‘The most significant arms-control agreement in nearly two decades.’
“ ‘The biggest upgrade of America’s food-safety laws since the Great Depression.’
“ ‘Al-Qaeda is more hunkered down than they have been since the original invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.’
“More! Most! Biggest! And when he wasn’t praising his accomplishments, he was praising himself: ‘One thing I hope people have seen during this lame-duck, I am persistent. I am persistent. You know, if I believe in something strongly, I stay on it.’
“Careful, Mr. President. What got Obama in trouble in the first place were the extraordinarily high expectations that the nation had for his administration – and that Obama’s campaign had encouraged. The humility forced on him by the Republicans’ triumph in November served to focus Obama, leading him to cut a tax deal with the GOP that infuriated fellow Democrats but made possible the string of legislative achievements he rightly boasted about on Tuesday….
“ ‘You racked up a lot of wins in the last few weeks that a lot of people thought would be difficult to come by,’ pointed out Reuters’ Caren Bohan, the leadoff questioner at the news conference. ‘Are you ready to call yourself the comeback kid?’
“ ‘It’s a victory for the American people,’ came the clichéd demurral.”
–WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange had to learn of a leak of a different kind, a 68-page confidential Swedish police report that shed new light on the allegations of sexual misconduct that led to him spending Christmas under house arrest (though a very fine house it is).
The two Swedish women with whom Assange insists he had consensual sexual relations assert that their encounters with him began consensually, but then became nonconsensual when he defied their wishes to use a condom.
Assange insists he is the victim, and the women are complicit, in an American-inspired vendetta for Wiki’s posting of hundreds of thousands of secret cables. Assange’s supporters say the CIA has conspired to discredit him.
Separately, Vice President Joe Biden was asked on Meet the Press whether he thought Assange was a whistleblower akin to those who released the Pentagon Papers or a high-tech terrorist.
“I would argue that it’s closer to being high-tech terrorist.”
“The WikiLeaks founder enjoys the pose of the plucky individual facing the hostile might of a shadowy multinational establishment. Yet his own organization values the concerns of individuals not at all. In 2008, WikiLeaks published the British National Party’s membership list, complete with addresses. Earlier this year, WikiLeaks published the names of informers working with the U.S. Army in Afghanistan, complete with GPS locations for their homes. Every one of these people is as much an individual as Mr. Assange. It beggars credibility that he considers his own privacy so differently to theirs….
“Mr. Assange may well be innocent of all the charges he faces in Sweden; he may even, as he insists, be the victim of a terrible smear. Nonetheless, his response to the public airing of his own allegedly dirty linen has been deeply telling. Had he celebrated it, he would have appeared a fool, but not a hypocrite. Instead, he appears as both.”
Meanwhile, Assange has denied knowing Army Private Bradley Manning, who is in custody and who I argue should be executed. I don’t say that lightly. But how many times does it need to be pointed out Manning committed treason? And at this point I refuse to use the word ‘allegedly’ when it comes to his actions with the documents.
I want Manning punished. I’m not sure what I want to happen to Assange at this point.
–But Assange said in an interview at week’s end there was a “high chance” he would be killed “Jack Ruby-style” in a U.S. jail if he were to be extradited from Britain on espionage charges.
–Newt Gingrich insists he’s serious this time about running for president. I’m serious in saying he not only doesn’t stand a chance in winning the nomination, he’s just not a good guy. Interesting ideas, I grant you, but hardly likeable.
–But I’m on record as saying my latest list of favorite Republican presidential candidates consisted of Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels and John Thune. Alas, it wasn’t a good week for Gov. Barbour of Mississippi, who said in an interview with the conservative The Weekly Standard that his childhood in Yazoo City, Mississippi wasn’t that bad, which is an innocent statement, except then he goes on to defend the Citizens Council, a group that many likened to the Ku Klux Klan. Since the interview, others have dug up insensitive racial-tinged comments. And so we bid adieu to Haley Barbour’s presidential aspirations. I like the guy, but there’s no way he can recover from this (and his backtracking attempt to apologize and clear the record on the Citizens Council reference fell on deaf ears).
“She’s all for cutting flabby government, but Sarah Palin wants Michelle Obama to butt out of keeping kids from getting fat.
“The moose-munching Tea Party darling is picking a fight with the First Lady – over dessert.
“ ‘Where are the s’mores ingredients?’ the sharp-elbowed hockey mom growled in Sunday’s episode of her outdoorsy TLC show ‘Sarah Palin’s Alaska.’
“ ‘This is in honor of Michelle Obama, who said the other day we should not have dessert,’ Palin said mockingly as she rummaged through her kitchen cupboards for graham crackers, marshmallows and chocolate.
“The former vice presidential candidate was apparently referring to a speech in which Michelle Obama did not quite put a ban on sweet treats.
“ ‘As I tell my kids, dessert is not a right,’ Obama told the NAACP in July, touting her ‘Let’s Move’ campaign to combat childhood obesity.
“While Obama’s program does not explicitly tell parents to avoid dessert, it suggests cutting back on sugar.
“It was the second time in a month Palin has bashed the First Lady’s calorie-curbing movement.
“ ‘What she is telling us is she cannot trust parents to make decisions for their own children, for their own families in what we should eat,’ the ex-Alaska governor told radio host Laura Ingraham last month.”
–New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie has made education a top priority as he has taken on the teachers’ union. In a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, the question was asked:
Do you believe teacher tenure is a necessary job protection or a barrier to eliminating bad teachers?
Christie is winning praise for his appointment this week of a Democrat, Christopher Cerf, to be the new education commissioner. Cerf was a deputy schools chancellor in New York City and championed charter schools. It was a bold move by Christie to cross party lines in making this selection.
But a new poll of New Jersey voters has Christie’s approval rating at just 46% (44% disapprove). A month ago, Christie’s approval was at 51%. President Obama’s approval rating in New Jersey is 50%, down from a high of 68% earlier this year but up slightly.
–More than 80 members of the House were missing for votes held on Tuesday, 73 for the “historic” food-safety bill. Gotta get home for Christmas, you see.
–The U.S. population now stands at 308,745,538…make that 308,745,842…308,746,109. Anyway, the country continues to grow…27 million since 2000. And part of what makes us unique is we like to move around. Ten states, led by Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Texas, reported average population gains in excess of 20%.
And Texas was the big winner in the Census as it gains four new Congressional seats, followed by Florida with two seats and other generally Republican states gaining one each. Those losing seats were traditional Democratic states like New York and Ohio (two each), Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, among others. Plus, you’ll have the impact of redistricting and Republicans should be in a position to move the needle in this respect as well.
–A Senate report charged that the “humanitarian” release of the Lockerbie bomber, Mohammed al-Megrahi in August 2009 was all about Libya’s threats to shut British-based oil giant BP out of deals worth hundreds of millions. It was the regional government of Scotland that then let Megrahi loose amid claims he was about to die from prostate cancer. But 16 months later he is living a life of luxury in Tripoli. The Scottish government angrily denied the charge. The Scots are lying.
–Executions in the United States fell to 46 in 2010, continuing a trend. 85 were put to death in 2000. Texas led the country with 17 in 2010.
“At least 45 people have been killed across Haiti due to accusations they are using ‘black magic’ to spread cholera, the director of a Voodoo association said Friday.
“Most of the killings are occurring in the southern coastal town of Jeremie, where people are being lynched, set on fire and attacked with machetes, said Max Beauvoir, a Voodoo priest.”
Looks like we have some good straight-to-video horror flicks in the can…and you can throw in the tagline, “Based on a true story…”
–Uh oh…can’t end on these last few notes. You know what I like about today, December 25? I was just at the 7/11, picking up all the papers, getting my coffee, and some of the regulars were there, including the two nice Indian kids who work the counter, and we all exchanged “Merry Christmas” greetings and smiled. For one day… most of us are kind to each other.
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
Gold closed at $1380
Oil, $91.51
Returns for the week 12/20-12/24
Dow Jones +0.7% [11573]
S&P 500 +1.0% [1256]
S&P MidCap +0.9%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq +0.9% [2665]
Returns for the period 1/1/10-12/24/10
Dow Jones +11.0%
S&P 500 +12.7%
S&P MidCap +25.3%
Russell 2000 +26.1%
Nasdaq +17.5%
Bulls 58.8
Bears 20.6 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
I should be posting on New Year’s Day about the normal time, seeing as how I’ll be working New Year’s Eve and not exactly partying!
And thus I’ll be throwing everything at you, including the kitchen sink.
