Fingers crossed, I hope to have a solution for the lack of videos for Monday. In the meantime, my latest Week in Review is posted, please peruse.
Street Bytes
—Nasdaq hit new record highs each day this week, while the S&P 500 hit its own record on Thursday. The Dow Jones is just a good one-day rally away from its closing high. On the week, the Dow did finish down ever so slightly, 0.1% to 44342, the S&P rose 0.6% and Nasdaq 1.5%.
Earnings have been solid thus far, with the big tech players to come, but it’s been clear sailing thus far, albeit at rather lofty valuations. The Street is also taking the tariff crosscurrents in stride.
Earnings from the likes of Tesla and Alphabet next week.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.26% 2-yr. 3.88% 10-yr. 4.43% 30-yr. 5.00%
Treasuries were unchanged on the week.
Going back to last Friday afternoon, we had the release of the federal budget deficit figures for June and it was a surplus, $27 billion, though the deficit for the first nine months was $1.337 trillion.
Net tariffs came in at $26.6 billion, and that’s great, a $300 billion annualized pace, but outlays for the fiscal year will come in around $6.75 trillion. And someone is still bearing the costs of the tariffs.
In May, the budget deficit was $315.6 billion.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that the results show the U.S. “reaping the rewards” from Trump’s tariff agenda.
“As President Trump works hard to take back our nation’s economic sovereignty, today’s Monthly Treasury Statement is demonstrating record customs duties – and with no inflation!” Bessent said.
Meanwhile, interest costs on the national debt continued to grow, exceeding all other individual outlays at $921 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year.
On a different topic, China trimmed its U.S. Treasury holdings for a third straight month in May, amid escalating trade tensions with Washington and mounting concerns over a sweeping tax and spending bill.
Beijing’s holdings fell to U.S. $756.3 billion from U.S. $757.2 billion in April, according to U.S. Treasury Department data. That was the lowest level since March 2009, based on figures compiled by Wind.
The decline has continued since March, when China dropped to third place among foreign holders, behind Japan and the United Kingdom.
But, despite China’s continued selling and an overall monthly dip, total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries – including short-term bills and longer-term bonds – rose to $9.05 trillion in May, marking the third straight month above the $9 trillion mark.
Gold $3357
Oil $67.50
Bitcoin: $117,434 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.15; Diesel: $3.72* [$3.50 – $3.84 yr. ago]
*Reminder…the price of diesel is critical to the cost of your groceries and items in your drug store. It hit a peak of $5.81, 6/19/22. Regular gasoline peaked at $5.01, 6/14/22.
Returns for the week 7/14-7/18
Dow Jones -0.1% [44342]
S&P 500 +0.6% [6296]
S&P MidCap -0.03%
Russell 2000 +0.2%
Nasdaq +1.5% [20895]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-7/18/25
Dow Jones +4.2%
S&P 500 +7.1%
S&P MidCap +1.6%
Russell 2000 +0.4%
Nasdaq +8.2%
Bulls 54.7
Bears 20.8
