For the week 11/24-11/28

[Posted 3:45 PM ET, Friday…the markets closed early today…]

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Edition 1,388

What a week.  We learned more about the origins and details behind the 28-point peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, now shelved, and how special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner hatched it out with a close Vladimir Putin advisor, Kirill Dmitriev, over three days in Miami.  There was little to no input from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, let alone President Trump, though Witkoff and Kushner clearly had the president in mind because, bottom line, the proposal was all about cutting business deals with Russia!  Unfreakin’believable.

And then Trump had a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi spending half the call on Taiwan and reminding Trump why Beijing considers the island theirs.  Trump afterwards in his Truth Social posts didn’t mention Taiwan.

And there was the tragedy in Washington, D.C., two National Guardsmen shot in an ambush carried out by an Afghan refugee/immigrant who had aided the U.S. in the war, came over in 2021, and was granted asylum this past April. One of the guardsmen died, the other is clinging to life.

The administration today is saying the suspect wasn’t vetted.

Late Thursday night, in a lovely Thanksgiving message, the president announced “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions…and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country…and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization… Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.  Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for – You won’t be here for long!”

—

Wall Street and the Economy

It’s all about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Open Market Committee meeting, Dec. 9-10, and the growing feeling there is another rate cut on the way.  On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller joined another influential policymaker, John Williams, in setting the stage for Fed easing.

“My concern is mainly the labor market, in terms of our dual mandate. So I’m advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting,” Waller said on the Fox Business Network. “You may see more of a meeting-by-meeting approach once you get to January.”

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Monday, “On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it.  It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have a nonlinear change.”  An inflation breakout, by contrast, is a lower risk given how tariff-driven cost increases have been more muted than anticipated earlier this year, she said.

The decision to cut rates or pause rates requires “a judgement call about where the risks of not moving are, and where the risks of moving are.  And so, for me, I put the risks of moving [rates down] a little bit lower than others, and I put the risk of not moving a little bit higher than others,” Daly added.

Daly isn’t a voting member on the FOMC this year, but she has rarely taken a public position at odds with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 

But the Fed isn’t going to see the employment and inflation statistics for October and November until Dec. 16 and 18, a week after the meeting.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic activity reveals little has changed in recent weeks, though overall consumer spending declined further except among higher-end shoppers.

“Outlooks were largely unchanged overall,” the Fed said.  “Some contacts noted an increased risk of slower activity in coming months, while some optimism was noted among manufacturers.”

Multiple districts reported that spending among upper-income consumers was resilient, but was flagging for low- and middle-income households.

That said, there are voting members on the FOMC who are in the ‘pause’ camp on rates, so Chair Powell’s job is to reach some kind of consensus, with minimal dissent.

We did have some economic data this week as more of it begins to roll out post-shutdown.

September retail sales rose 0.2%, 0.3% ex-autos, vs. previous figures of 0.6% for both.

And September producer prices were in line with expectations on headline, 0.3%, 2.7% year-over-year, but less than expected on core, ex-food and energy, 0.1%, 2.6%.  The key 2.6% figure was less than 2.9% in August.

September durable goods rose 0.5%, ex-transportation 0.6%.

But a first look at November manufacturing, the Chicago PMI, was a dismal 36.3, the 24th consecutive month below the neutral 50-line.  Yuck.

The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index for September rose 1.3% in the 12 months through September, compared with a revised 1.4% rise in August.  This represents the weakest performance since mid-2023.

The weakest of the 20 markets that comprise the index was Tampa, down 4.14% annualized, with Chicago and New York the strongest, up 5.45% and 5.25% respectively.

The U.S.’s fiscal year kicked off with the Treasury Department posting a net deficit of $284 billion for October, a record for the month.  But the picture is less gloomy as money that normally would have been paid in November for items such as the active-duty military, veteran benefits, and Medicare went out the door in October because Nov. 1, the usual payment date, fell on a Saturday, according to the Treasury Department.

Adjusting for that leaves a deficit of $180 billion, 29% lower than in October 2024.  The report was delayed and impacted by the government shutdown and also reflected record tariff revenues.

Receipts for October totaled $404 billion, a record for the month and a 24% increase from the $327 billion collected in October 2024.

The biggest revenue driver was net customs duties, which for October reached a new all-time monthly record of $31.4 billion, up from $29.7 billion in September and $7.3 billion in October 2024.

The Congressional Budget Office said last week that recent tariff reductions brought about by U.S. trade deals with partner economies had caused the agency to cut its estimate for how much Trump’s tariffs would reduce U.S. budget deficits over the next decade by 25% to $3 trillion, including interest costs, from the $4 trillion the agency projected in August.

Separately, U.S. economic growth will increase slightly next year but employment gains will remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve will slow any further rate cuts, economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics said in the group’s year-end forecast survey.

The survey of 42 professional forecasters, conducted from November 3 to 11, found the median outlook was for growth of 2%, up from 1.8% in a prior October survey.

Increased personal spending and business investment are seen driving growth higher, offset by what the panel in a near consensus said would be a drag on growth of a quarter of a percentage point or more from the Trump administration’s new import taxes.

“Respondents cite ‘tariff impacts’ as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook, considering both probability of occurrence and potential impact,” the survey reported.

Tougher immigration enforcement was also seen as depressing growth, with stronger productivity seen as the most likely factor to drive growth higher than expected.

Inflation is expected to end the year at 2.9%, and fall only slightly to 2.6% next year.

Job growth is seen remaining modest by historical standards, at around 64,000 per month, with the unemployment rate at 4.5%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is 3.9%.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, announced the official initial estimate of Q3 GDP will be released Dec. 23.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.23%.

Next week we’ll get ISM readings on manufacturing and the service sector.

Europe and Asia

Nothing of import across the eurozone and China this week on the data front.

Britain’s Rachel Reeves, Britain’s top economic official (Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced a set of tax increases on Wednesday as she sought to strengthen the country’s public finances in the face of a challenging economic outlook.

In her second annual budget, Reeves said she would raise taxes by nearly 26 billion pounds ($34 billion) by 2030, mostly via policies related to personal income taxes.  Last year, Reeves raised taxes by about 40 billion pounds and said she didn’t want to repeat such a budget.

In Japan, October retail sales were up 1.7% year-over-year, with a preliminary figure on industrial production up 1.5%.  The October unemployment rate was 2.6%.

But Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond hit a 17-year high and the yen has been slumping.  In response, Japan’s cabinet approved a $135 billion package to address rising living costs.

Remember, the U.S. depends on the kindness of strangers to finance our own huge budget deficit and rising Japanese bond yields lure more of its citizens’ savings, about a trillion dollars of which is parked in Treasury debt.

For years the Bank of Japan kept its borrowing costs artificially low by buying bonds outright.  Now it’s removing that prop but is doing it so cautiously that inflation has risen and the yen weakened even more.

Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards wrote: “Western politicians in particular should quiver with fear as Japan turns off the liquidity tap that has in effect suppressed Western bond yields below levels that their bloated fiscal deficits justify.” [Randall Forsyth / Barron’s.]

Street Bytes

—Thanks to a powerful holiday-shortened week in the stock market, despite all the angst in November, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 registered small gains in the month, while Nasdaq fell only 1.5%.

This week it was largely about Fed rate cut hopes and the Dow gained 3.2% to 47716, the S&P surged 3.9%, and Nasdaq soared 4.9%.

—U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.76%  2-yr. 3.49%  10-yr. 4.01%  30-yr. 4.66%

The 10-year was below 4.00% a number of times this week with the odds for a December rate cut rising.

—Alphabet shares rocketed further to new highs this week as a new artificial intelligence-powered chatbot set tech stocks jockeying for leadership amid new concerns over demand for Nvidia’s chips, Nvidia shares falling this week.

The new chatbot, Google’s Gemini 3, propelled Alphabet’s share price as investors are just starting to see the kind of impact Gemini 3 is likely to have on the AI trade over the coming months.

Gemini 3 is reportedly faster, sharper, and performs with deeper reasoning than OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Elon Musk’s Grok, and Jeff Bezos-backed Perplexity.  It fits neatly into the group’s broader family of apps and its market-leading search business. It is also priced at similar levels, or at a discount, to rival AI models.

But Gemini 3 was trained primarily on Google’s Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, versus rivals’ reliance on Nvidia chips.  While the TPUs don’t have some of the benefits as Nvidia’s GPUs, they are cheaper to develop and use less power to run at full capacity.  Wall Street has taken notice.

Alphabet, some analysts believe, could win the AI war because of its custom TPU chips.  Oracle, for example, bought billions of dollars of Nvidia chips to rent out on the cloud and could be undercut.

And now Meta Platforms is reportedly in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. An agreement would help establish TPUs as an alternative to Nvidia’s chips.

All the positive news for Google got under Nvidia’s skin, as the company issued an unnecessary statement Tuesday: “We’re delighted by Google’s success.  Nvidia is a generation ahead of the industry.”

—Deere & Co.’s first outlook for the year ahead fell short of expectations as uncertainty continues to surround the timing for a recovery in the U.S. farm economy.

The world’s biggest farm machinery maker said net income in the fiscal year will be between $4.4 billion and $4.75 billion, below the current consensus for $5.31 billion.  The shares fell 5% on the open, Wednesday.

The weak outlook for the maker of iconic green and yellow tractors comes as farmers have been hit hard by low crop prices and President Trump’s tariff policies.  Despite the recent deal between the U.S. and China to boost shipments of American crops to Asia, there’s still questions on whether the sales will be enough to shake the U.S. farm economy out of a years-long slump.

Deere estimated 2026 sales for its large agriculture segment – which caters to the biggest farmers of crops such as corn and soybeans – to be down 15% to 20% in the U.S. and Canada.

The fourth-quarter sales increase was due to both higher shipments and prices, but operating profit decreased due to elevated costs linked in part to tariffs.  Deere in August said tariffs such as those on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum cost the company $600 million.

The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $3.93 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $3.85, while revenue surged 11% year-over-year to $12.39 billion, significantly above consensus.  But Deere’s net income for the quarter fell 14% to $1.065 billion compared to $1.245bn in the same period last year.

Many in the industry believe China’s resumption of U.S. crop imports as well as a forthcoming aid package for American farmers should be a help in 2026. The Asian country has purchased nearly 2 million tons of soybeans since Oct. 30.

However, Chinese officials have yet to confirm details of a trade accord with the U.S.  That has created further uncertainty for farmers as they plan out next year’s planting decisions and equipment orders.

—Airbus has requested immediate modifications to thousands of aircraft after discovering that intense radiation from the sun could corrupt data crucial to flight controls.

About 6,000 planes are thought to be affected, about half the European aerospace giant’s global fleet, but it is understood most will be able to undergo a simple software update.

The issue affects the A320 – its best-selling aircraft – as well as other models.

Airbus said the problem was discovered following a recent “incident” in the U.S. involving an A320 aircraft and apologized for disruption to passengers.

It was October 30 when a JetBlue Airways A320 made an emergency landing in Florida, after a sudden drop in altitude.  At least 15 were reported injured.

Around 5,100 of the Airbus planes can be addressed using a relatively simple software update.  But the remaining aircraft which are older versions will need new hardware as well and will need to be taken out of the service.

Ergo, as Airbus said, there will be “operational disruption to passengers and customers.”

–According to AAA, about 6 million U.S. travelers were expected to take domestic flights during the holiday, up 2% from 2024.  But bookings slowed after the shutdown hit the one-month mark.  The steepest drop came during the final week when the Federal Aviation Administration ordered flight cuts at 40 major airports.

As of November 24, flight bookings for the five-day holiday period are down 4.48% from a year ago, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.  Bookings were up 1.56% on October 31, but have steadily declined.

United Airlines said it expected about 6.6 million customers over a 13-day period, the most passengers the airline has ever flown during a Thanksgiving holiday.

But many airline travelers appear to want to avoid major hubs.  For instance, Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, the busiest U.S. airport, will see 7.6% fewer Thanksgiving travelers.

And I have to add I like the comments of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy this week, who urged air passengers to be courteous and say “please” and “thank you” to pilots and flight attendants.  And to think about what you wear.

‘I think – again, I call this – just maybe dressing with some respect, you know, whether it’s a pair of jeans and a decent shirt,” Duffy said during a Monday press conference. “Let’s try not to wear slippers and pajamas as we come to the airport.  I think that’s positive.”

Wear shoes, and keep them on!

—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

11/27…57 percent of 2024 [Travel always way down on Thanksgiving Day]
11/26…102
11/25…107
11/24…96
11/23…105
11/22…90
11/21…109
11/20…120

—Dell shares rose 6% after the company slightly missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates but issued fourth quarter financial guidance above expectations.

The company offers AI-optimized servers equipped with Nvidia’s powerful chips.

Its strong forecasts eased investor concerns about the margin hit due to intense competition in the AI server market from rivals such as Super Micro Computer and the high costs of building the products.

Dell now expects $25 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue from AI server shipments, up from its prior view of $20 billion.  The company had previously raised the forecast in August.

Having secured deals with the U.S. Department of Energy and Abu Dhabi’s AI firm G42, the company also counts Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI and CoreWeave among its customers.

Dell expects fourth-quarter revenue between $31 billion and $32 billion, well above consensus of $27.59bn.

Adjusted profit forecast of $3.50 per share also beat estimates of $3.21.

For the October quarter, the company reported EPS of $2.50, compared with the Street’s consensus of $2.47.  Revenue of $27 billion was roughly in line with analysts’ expectations $27.15 billion.

—HP Inc. said on Tuesday it expects to cut between 4,000 and 6,000 jobs globally by fiscal 2028 as part of a plan to streamline operations and adopt artificial intelligence to speed up product development, improve customer satisfaction and boost productivity.

HP’s teams focused on product development, internal operations and customer support will be impacted by the job cuts, CEO Enrique Lores said during a media call.

“We expect this initiative will create $1 billion in gross run rate savings over three years,” Lores added.

The company laid off an additional 1,000 to 2,000 employees in February, as part of a previously announced restructuring plan.

Demand for AI-enabled PCs has continued to ramp externally, reaching over 30% of HP’s shipments in the fourth quarter ended October 31.

The company expects fiscal 2026 adjusted profit per share between $2.90 to $3.20, below analysts’ average estimate of $3.33.

HP forecasts adjusted first-quarter profit per share of between 73 cents and 81 cents.

Revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter was $14.64 billion, beating consensus of $14.48bn.

—Best Buy earnings beat Wall Street forecasts and the company raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday.

The retailer, heading into the holiday season, said that its sales were driven by “strong results across computing, gaming and mobile phones.”  The shares rose.

If shoppers feel they are getting a good value “they are willing to spend when they need to or when there is innovation,” CEO Corie Barry said on a call with reporters.

The new Windows 11 operating system is spurring PC sales.

The company reported same-store sales that rose 2.7% in the third quarter, ahead of the 1.6% expected by analysts.  Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.40, beating the Street’s $1.30, on revenue of $9.67 billion, also a bit more than analysts’ estimated.

Best Buy said it expects same-store sales for the full year to grow in the 0.5%-1.2% range, up from the previously expected range of a 1% decline to a 1% increase.

Its U.S. same-store sales rose 2.4%, while online same-store sales rose 3.5%, and international same-store sales jumped 6.3%.  All three were an improvement from last year, when sales fell across the board.

Best Buy also upped its revenue forecast to $41.65 billion to $41.95 billion, with adjusted earnings for the year of $6.25-$6.35.

—Kohl’s stock soared more than $0% Tuesday after the retailer reported better-than-expected third quarter results, both earnings and revenue surpassing the Street’s estimates.

“We are pleased with Kohl’s third quarter results, marking a third consecutive quarter of delivering top-line and bottom-line performance ahead of our expectations,” said CEO Michael Bender.  “These results are a direct reflection of the progress we are making against our 2025 initiatives, reinforcing our confidence as we continue to move in the right direction.”

Revenue of $3.41 billion exceeded the $3.33 billion analysts had expected, despite declining 2.9% year-over-year.  Comparable sales decreased 1.7%, which was better than the 3.9% analysts anticipated.

Kohl’s raised its full-year 2025 outlook, now expecting earnings per share of $1.25 to $1.45, well above the Street’s current consensus of $0.72.

—Dick’s Sporting Goods reported comparable sales climbed 5.7% during the recent quarter, boosted by growth in average ticket and transactions.  The Street was at 3.7%.  For the year, the company now expects same-store sales across its namesake brand to grow 3.5% to 4%, compared with a prior outlook of up 2% to 3.5%.  It also raised its full-year earnings for the banner to $14.25 to $14.55 a share, from $13.90 to $14.50.

For the third quarter ended Nov. 1, Dick’s posted a profit of $75 million, compared with $228 million a year earlier.  Adjusted earnings were $2.07 a share, or $2.78 a share when only accounting for the company’s namesake banner.  Analysts were at $2.69.  This is the first quarterly report incorporating recently acquired Foot Locker.

Sales across Dick’s namesake banner rose 5.9% to $3.24 billion.  Foot Locker notched sales of nearly $931 million, resulting in companywide sales of $4.17 billion.

The shares rose a bit on the news.

–Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly revenue on Tuesday as investments in one-hour delivery helped drive more users to its shopping apps, while its cloud division reported strong growth.

The company reported revenue of 247.80 billion yuan ($34.97 billion) in the fiscal second quarter, compared with estimates of 242.65 billion yuan.

Alibaba’s results come against the backdrop of a costly battle in China’s “instant retail” sector, where majors are pouring billions into one-hour delivery services to capture market share.

—Tyson Foods’ decision to close a beef plant that employs nearly one third of the residents of Lexington, Nebraska, could devastate the small city and undermine the profits of ranchers nationwide.

You would think closing a single slaughterhouse wouldn’t be that significant, but the Lexington plant employs roughly 3,200 people in the city of 11,000 and has the capacity to slaughter some 5,000 head of cattle a day.  Tyson also plans to cut one of the two shifts at a plant in Amarillo, Texas, and eliminate 1,700 jobs there.  Together those two moves will reduce beef processing capacity nationwide 7-9%.

Consumers may not see prices change much at the grocery store over the next six months because all the cattle that are now being prepared for slaughter will still be processed, potentially at just a different plant.  But long term, beef prices could still rise – caused by a variety of factors from drought to tariffs – unless American ranchers decide to raise more cattle, which they have little incentive to do.

An increase in beef imports from Brazil, after President Trump slashed tariffs on the country, may help insulate consumers while ranchers and feedlots struggle with high costs and falling prices.

As for the Lexington workers, Tyson offered them the chance to move to take open jobs at one of its other plants, but that means uprooting their families for jobs hundreds of miles away.

—Universal’s ‘Wicked: For Good’ defied gravity in its debut, bringing in record sales. It’s the biggest ever worldwide opening for a Broadway musical, beating last year’s Wicked, and could put Hollywood on track to close out the year on a strong note.

Domestic box office sales of $150 million beat forecasts, while it brought in $226 million globally, according to Comscore. It was the second highest-grossing opening weekend this year, after Warner Bros.’ ‘A Minecraft Movie’ in April.

For studios, the weekend showing is a sign that the holiday period could set it back on course after the worst October box office performance since the late 1990s.  Domestic ticket sales so far this year total $7.49 billion through Sunday, up 3.3% compared with 2024, Comscore said. [But 2024 was an awful year.]

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine:  On Saturday, Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Angus King (I-Maine) said Secretary of State Marco Rubio told them on a call that the Trump peace plan wasn’t primarily authored by the U.S., but instead was “essentially the wish list of the Russians.”

The president had said the 28-point plan was not his ‘final offer,’ Saturday morning, adding that Ukraine could continue fighting if it didn’t like the terms.  Rubio deferred on a question about Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline, saying the goal is to reach a peace deal “as soon as possible.”

Others who weighed in included Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who slammed Trump’s proposal as rewarding Vladimir Putin and hurting U.S. interest.

Sen. Wicker said: “This so-called ‘peace plan’ has real problems, and I am highly skeptical it will achieve peace,” said in a post on X. “Any assurances provided to Putin should not reward his malign behavior or undermine the security of the United States or allies.  In particular, any suggestion that we can pursue arms control with a serial liar and killer like Putin should be treated with great skepticism.”

Sen. McConnell wrote on Xi that “rewarding Russian butchery would be disastrous to America’s interests.”

Rubio “made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives,” Sen. Rounds said during the Halifax International Security Forum. “It is not our recommendation. It is not our peace plan.”

Rubio and other State Department officials then publicly pushed back on the characterization by the senators, insisting the plan was authored by the U.S., but instead was “essentially the wish list of the Russians.” Writing on X, the secretary of state said: “The peace proposal was authored by the U.S. It is offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations.”

The plan would declare the regions of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to be “de facto” Russian territory recognized by the U.S.  It would also limit the size of the Ukrainian military and restrict NATO forces from being stationed in the country, essentially preventing a European peacekeeping force.

All these are considered nonstarters for Ukrainians. Ukraine would receive security guarantees, but would not be able to join NATO.

Former national security adviser John Bolton also ripped the plan, arguing it was written from “the Russian point of view.”

The Russians “couldn’t have written a better treaty themselves,” Bolton said during an appearance on NewsNation’s “On Balance with Leland Vittert” on Friday.  “I think it’s selling out Ukraine. And I think for everybody over the past year who said, ‘Hey, Trump’s come around, he’s going to support Ukraine.’  I don’t know how many times it has to be proven. He doesn’t care about Ukraine.

“What he wants is a deal, and it’s part of the quest for the Nobel Peace Prize,” he added.

Bolton also said: “This treaty rewards unprovoked aggression. If, in fact, Trump is able to force Ukraine to accept this, this is a Neville Chamberlain moment. It really is.  This is Munich. And the signal to Russia and to China is: Unprovoked aggression can succeed.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) echoed similar sentiments Sunday, telling ABC that “Neville Chamberlain’s giving in to Hitler [before] World War II looks strong in comparison” and that the plan resembles a set of “Russian talking points.”

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Sunday he had spoken with Rubio, along with several senators, and was told it was a U.S. document with input from Ukraine and from Russia, though he acknowledged that it appeared the “inception” of the plan came from U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin advisor Kirill Dmitriev.

Clearly, there was chaos in the White House and a U.S. official confided to The Hill that “different parts of the White House don’t know what’s going on. It’s embarrassing.”

Rubio then emerged from talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday telling reporters “tremendous progress” was achieved during what he called “probably the most productive day we have had on this issue, maybe in the entirety of our engagement.”

Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff who is representing the Ukraine at the talks, said discussions would continue in coming days to refine and align proposals in consultation with European officials.

President Zelensky was cautious in a statement released after the talks.

“A lot is changing: we are working very carefully. It is important that there is dialogue with the American representatives, and there are signals that President Trump’s team is hearing us,” he said.

A joint statement released after the talks said: “Ukraine and the United States agreed to continue intensive work on joint proposals in the coming days.  They will also remain in close contact with their European partners as the process advances.”

The Trump administration was pressuring Ukraine to agree to a deal by Thanksgiving or risk losing American military support.  But President Trump revived his displeasure that Kyiv is not thankful enough with a Truth Social post on Sunday.

“The War between Russia and Ukraine is a violent and terrible one that, with strong and proper U.S. and Ukrainian LEADERSHIP, would have NEVER HAPPENED.  It began long before I took office for a Second Term, during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, and has only gotten worse.  If the 2020 Presidential Election was not RIGGED & STOLEN, the only thing the Radical Left Democrats are good at doing, there would be no Ukraine/Russia War, as there wasn’t, not even a mention, during my first Term in Office.  Putin would never have attacked!  It was only when he saw Sleepy Joe in action that he said, ‘Now is my chance!’  The rest is history, and so it continues.  I INHERITED A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, A WAR THAT IS A LOSER FOR EVERYONE, ESPECIALLY THE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE THAT HAVE SO NEEDLESSLY DIED. UKRAINE ‘LEADERSHIP’ HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS, AND EUROPE CONTINUES TO BUY OIL FROM RUSSIA. THE USA CONTINUES TO SELL MASSIVE $AMOUNTS OF WEAPONS TO NATO, FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UKRAINE (CROOKED JOE GAVE EVERYTHING, FREE, FREE, FREE, INCLUDING ‘BIG’ MONEY!). GOD BLESS ALL THE LIVES THAT HAVE BEEN LOST IN THE HUMAN CATASTROPHE! President DJT”

Saturday, Trump had told reporters that Zelensky can either agree to the White House’s peace proposal by Thursday, or “continue to fight his little heart out.”

On the sidelines of a Group of 20 meeting in Johannesburg Saturday, more than a dozen European leaders drafted a counterproposal.

The group, which included French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said in a joint statement they are “concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.

“We reiterate that the implementation of elements relating to the European Union and relating to NATO would need the consent of E.U. and NATO members,” the statement said.

But Monday morning he wrote: “Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine???  Don’t believe it until you see it, but something good just may be happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

President Zelensky warned the “main problem” remained Vladimir Putin’s demand for legal recognition of Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.

No details have emerged on how to bridge the considerable divide between Moscow and Kyiv over territorial issues and security guarantees for Ukraine.

It is now thought that Zelensky and President Trump will meet to discuss the more contentious points, although no timeline has been given.

Later Monday, the Financial Times described the 28-point plan as a 19-point plan.  However, “the most politically sensitive elements [are still] to be decided by the countries’ presidents,” the FT’s Christopher Miller reported.

As for the European counterproposal, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov called it “completely unconstructive.”

Ukrainian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya later said both sides felt “positive” over the new plan, which removes limits to the size of Ukraine’s army – and no longer gives blanket amnesty for war crimes committed during the Russian invasion.

“Very few things are left from the original version,” Kyslytsya told the FT.

President Zelensky, in his evening address to the nation Monday, said progress had been made in the negotiations.

“Now the list of necessary steps to end the war can become doable,” Zelensky said.  “Many right elements have been taken into account in this framework.”  However, much remains to be done, he said.

The original version sought to shrink Ukraine’s armed forces from 900,000 soldiers to only 600,000, with Kyiv also asked to cede its entire Donbas region, which Russia has failed to conquer for more than a decade.

For his part, Vladimir Putin needs the rest of the Donbas so he can sell it as a victory.  Another red line is ruling out Ukrainian NATO membership for good.  There’s actually an understanding that Ukraine will not get into NATO because not all members of NATO would accept it.  So this is no longer the disagreement it once was.

We also learned Monday that it was Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner who developed the original 28-point plan for peace, and that Marco Rubio only learned the “full scope” of the proposal once it was leaked, the Wall Street Journal first reported.

The pair held “secret meetings” and dinners in Miami with Putin ally Kirill Dmitriev. 

“They brought him to Miami the weekend before Halloween for what would be three days of intensive discussions over dinner and extended conversation at Witkoff’s home,” U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter told the Journal.

Dmitriev demanded the controversial points on NATO membership and Ukrainian territorial concessions be included.

He also pushed for the Ukrainian troop cap and economic agreements between Washington and Moscow.

The Journal noted that Witkoff, Kushner and Dmitriev had “similar views” on what the plan should look like.

Overnight Monday, Russia launched a wave of attacks on Kyiv, with at least seven people killed in strikes that hit city buildings and energy infrastructure.  Moscow fired 460 drones and at least 22 missiles.  More than 100,000 people were without power across five regions of Ukraine.

A Ukrainian attack on southern Russia killed three people and damaged homes.

Zelensky posted on social media Monday evening: “If there are negotiations, if there is constructive engagement, if we are truly ending the war – then there must be no missiles, no massive strikes on Ukraine, on our people… Russia started this war, and it is Russia that must end it.”

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with Russian officials for several hours in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, but Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, said the new peace plan was not discussed in detail.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed skepticism on Tuesday about any deal that “erased…key understandings” between Trump and Putin at their summit in Alaska over the summer.

He also said that while Moscow had been in favor of the initial U.S. framework, the situation would be “fundamentally different” if it had undergone substantial changes.

President Zelensky said he was ready to meet Trump to discuss outstanding “sensitive points,” with his administration aiming for a meeting before the end of the month.

Tuesday afternoon, President Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine (A War that would have NEVER started if I were President!).  Last month 25,000 soldiers died. The original 28-Point Peace Plan, which was drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement. In the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan, I have directed my Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and, at the same time, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians. I will be briefed on all progress made, along with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when a deal to end this War is FINAL, or, in its final stages.  Thank you for your attention to this very important matter, and let’s all hope that PEACE can be accomplished AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!

“DONALD J. TRUMP …PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”

The president said he had not given either side a date to agree to a deal by, saying “the deadline for me is when it’s over.”

European leaders seemed doubtful that, after almost four years of war, peace could be within reach.  French President Macron said he saw “no Russian will for a ceasefire,” while Downing Street warned there was “a long way to go – a tough road ahead.”

The fragility of the process was then underscored later Tuesday by a leaked transcript of a call in which Witkoff appeared to coach Ushakov on how to win Trump’s support for a peace plan.

The White House didn’t dispute the veracity of the reported transcript and praised Witkoff for his discussions with Russian officials.

“It’s a standard thing,” Trump said Tuesday of Witkoff’s negotiating, adding he is likely making similar comments to Ukrainians. “That’s what a dealmaker does.”

In the phone call with Yuri Ushakov, Witkoff suggested that Putin call Trump shortly before Zelensky’s Oct. 17 visit to the White House, according to the Bloomberg report.  Zelensky traveled to Washington hoping Trump would authorize the transfer of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, a weapon that would put many Russian targets in Kyiv’s crosshairs.

But on the Oct. 16 call, Putin warned Trump that sending the Tomahawks would escalate the war and harm U.S.-Russia relations, according to Ushakov.

The Putin conversation then convinced Trump not to support handovers of Tomahawks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said.

Reacting to the leaked Witkoff conversation with Ushakov, some Republican lawmakers called on the administration to change course.

“This is a major problem. And one of the many reasons why these ridiculous side shows and secret meetings need to stop,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said on X. “Allow Secretary of State Marco Rubio to do his job in a fair and objective manner,” he said.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who has been critical of the Trump administration for its handling of the negotiations, said the report showed Witkoff needs to be pushed aside.  Witkoff “acts like he’s on Russia’s payroll,” Bacon said.  “This whole incident has been a fiasco and a blemish on our country. He needs to be fired,” he added.

Fitzpatrick joined a call with Bacon to reporters Wednesday morning.

“Why is Ukraine giving up territory to Russia, and Russia is not giving up territory to Ukraine? Why is Ukraine limiting and capping the size of their military when Russia is not doing the same?” Fitzpatrick said.  “How about Russia holds an election within 100 days too?  That is monitored by international monitors, right?”

Russia then shot down Trump’s claim that the Kremlin had already agreed to some concessions on ending the war in Ukraine – as Moscow blasted Ukrainians with fresh drone strikes overnight.

Multiple Russian officials insisted it was too premature to speak about accepting any peace plan and that Moscow wouldn’t agree to anything that didn’t fully meet its demands.

“There can be no talk of any concessions or surrender of our approaches to the key aspects of resolving the problems facing us, including in the context of the special operation [in Ukraine],” said Sergei Ryabkov, a Russian deputy foreign minister.

Asked if a peace deal was close, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday: “It’s premature to say that yet.”

Russian staged a mass drone attack Tuesday night on Zaporizhzhia that left 19 people wounded.

Ukraine’s air force said it downed 72 out of 90 drones and two ballistic missiles launched by Russia in a country-wide attack.

Thursday, Vladimir Putin doubled down on his core demands for ending the war, saying Russia will lay down arms only if Kyiv’s troops withdraw from territory claimed by Moscow.

For Kyiv, which has ruled out relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, rewarding Russia for its aggression is a non-starter.

Speaking after Putin’s address, President Zelensky said that Russia “scorned” efforts “to truly end the war.”

Speaking to reporters during a trip to Kyrgyzstan, Putin accused Kyiv of wanting to fight “to the last Ukrainian” – which he said Russia was “in principle” also ready to do.

He repeated his view that Russia has the initiative on the battlefield and the fighting would only end when Ukrainian troops withdrew from Donbas.

“If they don’t withdraw, we’ll achieve this by force of arms,” he said.

According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, at Russia’s current rate of slow gains in eastern Ukraine, it would take Moscow almost two more years to seize the rest of the Donbas region.

Thursday’s remarks were the first time that Putin addressed the hectic diplomatic moves of the last week.  During his comments to reporters, he again expressed his contempt for the Ukrainian leadership, which he said he considered illegitimate.  There was therefore “no use” signing any documents with them, he added.

Steve Witkoff, maybe accompanied by Jared Kushner, was still expected to meet with Putin in Moscow early next week, which Putin confirmed.

—All of this comes as Zelensky deals with the major corruption allegations rocking his innermost circle.  Ukraine’s anti-corruption watchdog, NABU, published extensive evidence of officials’ involvement in a major kickback scheme that siphoned money from the crucial energy and defense sectors this month as weather turned cold and Ukrainians, worn down by years of war, are either fighting on a brutal front line or living in near-total darkness because of relentless attacks on the energy grid.

There are fears in Ukraine that the corruption allegations, which are expected to soon expand to include more top officials close to Zelensky, could weaken his already difficult position at the bargaining table – although any deal to end the war would also require parliamentary approval.  He is very aware that he cannot force the country into an unfair or unpopular deal, further tying his hands as Washington pressures him toward an agreement.

Even allies in his own party have united to publicly urge him for the first time to fire his closest aide and confidant, Andriy Yermak.  Many see him as responsible for dangerously consolidating power in the presidential office, effectively neutralizing the once-powerful parliament and controlling most aspects of Ukraine’s political and security sphere.

And now you see Yermak as being a key figure in the peace negotiations.

But today, Friday, anti-corruption agencies began searching his apartment, with NABU saying the searches had been authorized.  Yermak was cooperating.  And then he resigned.

“There will be a reboot of the office of the president of Ukraine.  The head of the office, Andriy Yermak, has submitted his resignation,” Zelensky said in a video posted to social media.

“It’s the right decision,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former Ukrainian economy minister.  “It shows commitment to transparency, and it also strengthens Zelensky at a critical moment when he’s under pressure from Russia and America.”

“I hope it resolves the domestic political crisis,” he added.

In a recent poll, 70% of Ukrainians had wanted Yermak to resign.

—Editorial / Wall Street Journal…last Friday night….

“Mr. Trump’s [original] offer would defang a fighting ally in Ukraine – the kind the Administration says it wants – and expose the U.S. to a greater risk of a direct confrontation with Russia. Where are the supposed realists and restrainers who run this Administration?  We are supposed to believe that the same President who won’t sanction China for buying Russian oil and assisting its war machine will go to war for Kyiv?….

“Also extraordinary is the offer to rescue and rehabilitate Mr. Putin financially.  ‘Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy,’ the document says, and return to make the G7 again the G8 group of nations.  Russia would be the only dictatorship in that group.

“The U.S. will enter some ‘long-term economic cooperation agreement’ with Russia, an outgrowth of the Trump delusion that Mr. Putin can be wooed with commerce. The plan floats working with Russia on – we are not making this up – artificial intelligence.  Mr. Trump might as well skip the middle man and surrender the U.S. tech advantage to China directly.

“Mr. Trump insists the war in Ukraine is Europe’s problem, but then why not first consult those who live in Mr. Putin’s backyard?  The deal looks like an echo of Trump’s first term freeze out of the Afghan government while Zalmay Khalilzad negotiated with the Taliban in Doha.  That set the stage for President Biden’s abandonment of Afghanistan.

“Mr. Trump may figure he can finally wash his hands of Ukraine if Europe and Ukraine reject his offer.  He’s clearly sick of dealing with the war.  But appeasing Mr. Putin would haunt the rest of his Presidency. If Mr. Trump thinks American voters hate war, wait until he learns how much more they hate dishonor.

“Mr. Trump can tarnish his legacy if he wants, but the bigger risk here is to the United States.  A bad deal in Ukraine would broadcast to U.S. enemies that they can seize what they want with force or nuclear blackmail or by pressing on until America loses interest.  The odds of a Pacific crisis will go up.

“European capitals and the last adults in Congress will now scramble to try to talk Mr. Trump off this plan – and don’t rule out Mr. Putin still overplaying his Trump hand.  These are the forces that can save the U.S. President from appeasement he’ll regret.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…Monday evening….

“A peace that welcomes Ukraine into NATO may be untenable today, and Mr. Putin knows Ukraine isn’t close to joining anyway.  But sovereignty means more than a spot on the map that says Ukraine.  If NATO membership is ruled out for now, it shouldn’t’ be for all time. And if it is ruled out, Ukraine will need security guarantees that are more than paper promises….

“A credible guarantee would have to come from a complement of countries in the West, and include Western troops at least training in Ukraine.  Yet the draft deal bans troops operating under NATO’s banner in Ukraine.  The case for the ban is that Mr. Putin won’t accept such troops, which may be true.  But that should tell the U.S. Administration that it is currently pressuring the wrong negotiating party.

“The Administration’s realpolitik case for tilting toward Russia is that Ukraine is losing the war.  ‘People that are critical of this right now, they don’t really have another plan,’ Missouri GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt said over the weekend.  ‘They live in this fantasy world that another round of sanctions, or another round of weapons, or another round of cash is going to solve the problem. It won’t.’

“So sue for peace because the next deal in six months will be even worse.

“But the military experts we talk to, including retired Gen. Jack Keane, say Ukraine isn’t losing the war.  Russia is still gaining ground in the east, but at tremendous cost. Ukraine has overperformed – holding out nearly four years longer than anyone expected, even while fighting with two few weapons too often delivered too late.  The West has a fighting ally on the front lines against an adversary that threatens to use nuclear weapons. The best we can do is negotiate its ally’s surrender terms?

“And more sanctions wouldn’t matter?  The decisive enabler of Mr. Putin’s conquest is the Chinese Communist Party. The U.S. has made no real attempt to cut this lifeline, say, with secondary sanctions.  Mr. Putin is facing more economic and manpower problems on his own domestic front.

“The real fantasists are Republicans in Congress and the White House who think Mr. Putin can be coaxed into giving up his Ukraine ambitions with commercial deals and ‘cultural exchange.’  This reminds us of John Kerry thinking a nuclear deal would cause Iran’s mullahs to give up their jihadist dreams.  Mr. Putin thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia – full stop.

“The test of any peace agreement isn’t that the fighting stops for a time. The test is whether a deal creates the conditions for a durable peace.  A false peace will plant the seeds of future bloodshed and broader threats to European and U.S. security.”

Anne Applebaum / The Atlantic

“(It) cannot be repeated often enough: This war will end only when Russia stops fighting.  The Russians need to halt the invasion, recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine, and drop their imperial ambitions. Then Ukraine can discuss borders, prisoners, and the fate of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian children.

“But the only way to persuade Russia to stop fighting is to put pressure on Russia.  Not Ukraine, Russia.  The Ukrainians have already said they will stop fighting and agree to a cease-fire right now, on the current lines of conflict.  Yet (Steve) Witkoff is seeking to persuade Trump not to put pressure on Russia, and we don’t really know why.

“Witkoff has no previous diplomatic experience, so perhaps he is naïve…. Maybe he, or others in the White House entourage, have business interests tied to Russia – or hope to.  In addition to discussing ‘peace,’ Witkoff has also been, according to the document made public last week, talking with the Russians about American investments ‘in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, and rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic.’

“Whatever the reason, Witkoff is prolonging the conflict. He is not promoting peace. His call to Ushakov was not, as Trump said…a normal negotiating tactic.  Every time he intervenes, advocating for Putin’s positions, he encourages the Russians to think they can get Trump on their side, pull America away from Europe, break up NATO, and win the war.  In other words, every time he intervenes on behalf of the Russians, he contributes to the deaths of Ukrainians, the attacks on infrastructure, the ongoing tragedy that affects millions of people.

“If this were a normal American administration, he would be fired immediately. But nothing about this negotiation, or this administration, is normal at all.”

—

Israel/Gaza: Israel’s military on Saturday launched airstrikes against Hamas in Gaza in the latest test of the ceasefire that began on Oct. 10, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said five senior Hamas members were killed.  Health officials in Gaza reported at least 24 people killed and another 54 wounded.

International momentum has been building on Gaza, with the UN Security Council having approved the U.S. blueprint to secure and govern the territory. It authorizes an international stabilization force to provide security, approves a transitional authority to be overseen by President Trump and envisions a possible future path to an independent Palestinian state, but no one seems to be signing up for the stabilization force, and Netanyahu is against an independent Palestinian state.

Hamas has also warned U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that the ceasefire is “over” and they are “ready to fight,” sources told Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya.

—An Israeli airstrike Sunday struck Beirut for the first time since June.  Israel said that it targeted Hezbollah’s chief of staff, without giving further details.

The strike in the south of the capital comes days before Pope Leo XIV was scheduled to visit the country and as Israeli airstrikes over southern Lebanon have intensified in recent weeks.

Israel and the U.S. have been piling the pressure on Lebanon to disarm the militant group.  The government has approved a plan by the Lebanese military that would accomplish this, but Israel says Hezbollah is trying to rebuild its military capabilities in southern Lebanon, whereas the Lebanese government denies those claims.

China: President Trump spoke with China’s President Xi Jinping on Monday by phone and Trump afterward described “significant progress on both sides.”  Trump accepted an invitation by Xi to visit Beijing in April and invited Xi to visit the U.S. later next year.

The call coincided with rising Taiwan tensions and Trump’s push for a solution to Russia’s war in Ukraine.  Chinese officials in a readout after the call, focused on the broad relationship with the U.S. and didn’t mention soybean purchases, state visits, or Chinese access to advanced U.S. semiconductors.

But Trump on Truth Social hours later described a call that covered Ukraine, Russia, fentanyl, soybeans, and other farm products.  He portrayed it as a follow-up to the recent meeting in South Korea.  China said both sides were implementing the deal they agreed to there.

The U.S. has said Beijing agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by year-end.  However, China has bought just 1.5 million metric tons, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.

Taiwan is critical to the semiconductor supply chain and home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which produces 90% of advanced chips.  A panel that advises Congress on issues related to China last week flagged growing concerns about Beijing’s increased activity around Taiwan and in the Pacific Islands.

A Chinese Embassy readout of the call on Monday said they also discussed China’s “position on the Taiwan question.”  That was not mentioned in Trump’s statement.

Chinese news agency Xinhua said Xi clarified Beijing’s official position on Taiwan, emphasizing that its return to China is an important part of the post-World War II international order.

Trump was quoted by Xinhua as saying that the U.S. understood the importance of Taiwan issues.

The Wall Street Journal then reported Thursday that Xi spent half of the hourlong phone call with Trump on Taiwan, “hammering home China’s historic claim to the democratic self-governing island.”

The Journal adds that Trump then set up a call with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who had outraged China by suggesting a Chinese attack on Taiwan could mobilize a Tokyo military response.

Japanese officials told the Journal (as well as an American briefed on the call) that Trump’s message to Takaichi “was worrying.  The president didn’t want friction over Taiwan to endanger a détente reached last month with Xi.”

A spokeswoman for the Japanese prime minister said it is not accurate that Trump advised Takaichi not to provoke China over Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Beijing then blasted Japan’s missile deployment on an island only 68 miles away from Taiwan as “extremely dangerous,” saying it stokes regional tensions and military confrontation amid deteriorating ties between the two Asian powers.

But Shinjiro Koizumi, Tokyo’s defense minister, believed the deployment on Yonaguni Island would “reduce the likelihood of any armed attack on Japan itself,” a Japanese defense ministry read-out stated Sunday.

China’s embassy in Japan has advised citizens to put travel plans on hold “in the near term,” citing a spike in unprovoked assaults and discrimination.

Beijing has also halted seafood imports from the country and cancelled intergovernmental exchanges and cultural events.

For its part, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te on Wednesday announced a special $40 billion budget for arms purchases, including to build a Taiwan Dome, an air defense system with high-level detection and interception capabilities, as the U.S. pressures the island to increase its defense spending.

“China’s threats to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region are escalating,” Lai said Wednesday.  “Recently, various types of military intrusions, maritime gray zones and disinformation campaigns have been occurring in Japan, the Philippines and around the Taiwan Strait, causing deep unease and distress to all parties in the region.”

“Taiwan, as the most important and most critical part of the first island chain, must demonstrate our determination and take on a greater responsibility in self-defense,” he said, referring to the string of islands stretching from Japan’s East China Sea islands through the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean.

Nigeria: A total of 303 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted by gunmen during an attack on St. Mary’s School, a Catholic institution in north-central Nigeria’s Niger state, the Christian Association of Nigeria said Saturday, updating an earlier tally of 215 schoolchildren.  The students were both male and female and ranged in age from 10 to 18.

Fifty of the schoolchildren than escaped captivity and were back with their families, school authorities said Sunday, as the pope called for the immediate release of those still missing.

At the end of a mass in St. Peter’s Square on Sunday, Pope Leo XIV said: “I feel great sorry, especially for the many girls and boys who have been abducted and for their anguished families. I make a heartfelt appeal for the immediate release of the hostages and urge the competent authorities to take appropriate and timely decisions to ensure their release.”

Most of the kidnappings in the region are for ransom.

Random Musings

–Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: New numbers…36% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapprove.  25% of independents approve (Nov. 3-25).  This is a new low for Trump’s second term, including among independents.  And only 84% of Republicans approve, five percent lower than the previous low level of 89%.

Rasmussen: 47% approve, 51% disapprove (Nov. 26).

—President Trump said the “monstrous ambush” of two National Guard members in Washington, D.C., Wednesday “underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation,” namely, the surge in immigration into the U.S. under former President Biden.

“I can report tonight that based on the best available information, the Department of Homeland Security is confident that the suspect in custody is a foreigner who entered our country from Afghanistan, a hellhole on Earth,” Trump said in an address to the nation Wednesday evening from Mar-a-Lago.

“He was flown in by the Biden administration in September 2021 on those infamous flights that everybody was talking about,” the president continued.  “His status was extended under legislation signed by President Biden, a disastrous president, the worst in the history of our country.”

Trump added: “This attack underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation.  The last administration let in 20 million unknown and unvetted foreigners from all over the world.”

Shortly after the president’s remarks, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said in a social media post that the processing of all immigration requests relating to Afghan nationals has been “stopped indefinitely pending further review of security and vetting protocols.”

Veterans groups are urging the public to avoid spreading what could be false information and to refrain from condemning the entire Afghan community in the United States.

Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, ambushed the guardsmen near the White House.

The guardsmen were part of the contingent of troops deployed to Washington on Trump’s orders over the summer to support law enforcement.

The suspect worked with CIA-backed military units during the U.S. war in Afghanistan, the agency said Thursday.

Lakanwal came to the U.S. in September 2021 after the American withdrawal, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said.

Thursday, 20-year-old Sarah Backstrom then succumbed to her injuries, while the second National Guard member, 24-year-old Andrew Wolfe, was “fighting for his life,” President Trump then said.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump immediately linked the shooting to Joe Biden’s Afghan debacle, and officials were quick to denounce the lack of adequate betting in the evacuation rush of 2021. When and how the shooter was approved for entry will become clearer, and no doubt an orderly withdrawal would have allowed more careful investigation.  This is one more cost of the Biden Administration’s Afghan failure.

“But even careful vetting is imperfect, and Rahmanullah Lakanwal may have become radicalized in the U.S.  This has been known to happen even with the children of refugees who grow up in America.

“Some will say this means the U.S. should never admit such refugees, but the alternative is abandoning allies who assist Americans in war to the retribution of our enemies.  The fate of Afghans, men and women, who worked with the U.S. has often been brutal.  You can be sure Americans will fight overseas again, and our troops will need allies on the ground to succeed.  How many will assist us if they believe there will be no exit for them if the U.S. leaves with the enemy triumphant?

“The Trump Administration said it has paused processing immigration applications from Afghanistan, and Mr. Trump said the attack justifies his mass deportation policy. But it would be a shame if this single act of betrayal became the excuse for deporting all Afghan refugees in the U.S.

“Tens of thousands are building new lives here in peace and are contributing to their communities.  They shouldn’t be blamed for the violent act of one man.  Collective punishment of all Afghans in the U.S. won’t make America safer and it might embitter more against the United States.”

As noted above, late Thursday, in a pair of Truth Social posts, Trump called for “reverse migration,” outlining a series of potential measures to crack down on immigration, including halting admissions from unspecified developing nations and revoking citizenship from some naturalized migrants.

Trump said he would “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries” and “denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility.”

He added that he would terminate millions of admissions under Joe Biden and “remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country.”  Trump also said he would end all federal benefits for non-citizens.

—Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), a once-loyal supporter of President Trump who has become a critic, said Friday she is resigning from Congress in January.

In a more than 10-minute video posted online, Greene explained her decision and said she’s “always been despised in Washington, D.C., and just never fit in.”

Greene’s resignation followed a public fallout with Trump in recent months, as the congresswoman criticized him for his stance on files related to Jeffrey Epstein, along with foreign policy and health care.

Trump branded her a “traitor” and “wacky” and had said he would endorse a challenger against her when she ran for reelection.

In her video, she underscored her longtime loyalty to Trump except on a few issues, and said it was “unfair and wrong” that he attacked her for disagreeing.

“Loyalty should be a two-way street and we should be able to vote our conscience and represent our district’s interest, because our job title is literally ‘representative,’” she said.

Trump on Truth Social, Sat. a.m.:

“Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown, because of PLUMMETING Poll Numbers, and not wanting to face a Primary Challenger with a strong Trump Endorsement (where she would have no chance of winning!), has decided to call it ‘quits.’ Her relationship with the WORST Republican Congressman in decades, Tom Massie of Kentucky, also known as Rand Paul Jr. because he votes against the Republican Party (and really good legislation!), did not help her.  For some reason, primarily that I refused to return her never ending barrage of phone calls, Marjorie went BAD.  Nevertheless, I will always appreciate Marjorie, and thank her for her service to our Country! President DJT”

—Trump musings on Truth Social…Saturday a.m.

“I HAVE JUST GOTTEN THE HIGHEST POLL NUMBERS OF MY ‘POLITICAL CAREER.’  While my great work on the Economy has not yet been fully appreciated, it will be!  Things are really Rockin’.  Stopping WARS and Foreign Relations seems to be a strong suit. Also great, The Border and Stopping Crime. I predict that the Economy, with the already HIGHEST STOCK MARKET, EVER, and prices coming sharply down from the Biden disaster, will soon be at the top of the list.  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Where he’s getting his poll numbers beats me.

Saturday p.m.

“We are taking in TRILLIONS of Dollars in Tariffs and Investment Dollars from foreign lands because of Tariffs.  I have stopped 5 of the eight WARS directly because of the threat of Tariffs if they don’t stop fighting or, better yet, if they start. There is almost no inflation, and the worst in USA History under Sleepy Joe Biden. The Stock Market just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH for the 48th time in 9 months.  To Leonard Leo, Koch, and all of the Countries and Slimeballs that have ripped off the United States of America for years through the use of their own Tariffs, we don’t have a Court System that’s going to let you destroy our Country any longer. This is the richest, strongest, and most respected the USA has ever been.  November 5th, and Tariffs, are the reasons why. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”

—President Trump said he would not invite South Africa to participate in next year’s G-20 summit in Miami and that he planned to “stop all payments and subsidies” to the country, as relations between Washington and Pretoria continue to deteriorate.

Trump, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, repeated claims without evidence that South Africa was committing genocide against White Afrikaners and seizing land without compensation and criticized the country’s handling of the recent G20 summit it hosted.

“South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year,” Trump said. “South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately.”

It’s not clear how the U.S. will enforce Trump’s ban on South Africa’s participation, but presumably the State Department will not issue visas to officials seeking to attend that conference.

The U.S. boycotted the G20 meeting last weekend.

—The White House is circulating a proposal that would extend subsidies to help consumers pay for coverage under the Affordable Care Act for two more years, as millions of Americans face spiking health care costs when the current tax credits are set to expire at the end of the year.

The draft plan, which was supposed to be announced by the president Monday but then pulled, suggests that Trump is open to extending a provision of Obamacare as his administration and congressional Republicans search for a broader policy solution to a fight that has long flummoxed the party.

The notion of extending any part of President Obama’s signature legislative achievement rankled conservatives who have sought to repeal and replace the law for well over a decade.

The subsidies were at the heart of the Democrats’ demands in the government shutdown fight.

—A federal judge on Monday dismissed criminal charges against both former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James, ruling that the Trump-appointed prosecutor who brought them was unlawfully serving in the role.

The decisions from Judge Cameron McGowan Currie deal a significant setback to the Justice Department, which brought charges against Comey and James within weeks of President Trump publicly calling on Attorney General Pam Bondi to prosecute several of his prominent critics.

The orders make Lindsey Halligan the latest Trump administration prosecutor to be disqualified because of the manner in which they were appointed.  Both defendants had asked for the cases to be dismissed with prejudice, meaning that the Justice Department would not be able to bring them again.  But the judge instead dismissed them without prejudice, though it was not immediately clear if or how the Justice Department might attempt to revive the prosecutions.

The judge said the Justice Department could seek a new indictment against James under a lawfully appointed prosecutor.  In Comey’s case, though, Currie suggested that the time for doing so has run out.

—The Pentagon said it is probing allegations of misconduct against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) after he appeared in a video urging troops to disobey unlawful orders.

The Defense Department said it had begun a review of the allegations to determine further actions, which could include recalling Kelly to active duty to initiate court-martial proceedings or administrative measures.

“If this is meant to intimidate me and other members of Congress from doing our jobs and holding this administration accountable, it won’t work,” Kelly said.  “I’ve given too much to this country to be silenced by bullies who care more about their own power than protecting the Constitution.”

President Trump has called for the arrest of the lawmakers who appeared in the video, saying their behavior amounted to sedition.

—A judge in Georgia dismissed the last pending criminal prosecution against Trump on Wednesday, effectively ending efforts to hold him criminally responsible for attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

The president has now seen three criminal cases against him dissolve since he was re-elected last year.  A number of his allies are also defendants in the Georgia racketeering case, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows.

The case was once seen as one of the most serious legal threats to Trump, because state criminal convictions are not subject to presidential pardons.

Essentially, the judge said it wasn’t worth it for the State of Georgia to re-file the case under a different prosecutor as the process could drag on for up to ten years.

—President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate, ending an initiative launched with fanfare as a symbol of Trump’s pledge to slash the government’s size but which critics say delivered few measurable savings.

–As reported by USA TODAY’s Kate Perez, the Trump administration has redefined which degrees are considered “professional,” leaving many graduate students with questions and concerns about how to finance their education.

Some professions like nursing have been omitted from a list used by the Department of Education.

Kate Perez: “The confusion and controversy stem from a 1965 federal law, which defines a ‘professional degree’ as one that ‘signifies both completion of the academic requirements for beginning practice in a given profession and a level of professional skill beyond that normally required for a bachelor’s degree.’”

Multiple graduate programs are left off the ‘professional degree’ list, sparking responses from national organizations and groups advocating for a wider range of degrees to be represented under the umbrella.

For example, the American Nurses Association has also expressed concern with the current definition, with association President Jennifer Mensik Kennedy saying in a letter that excluding nursing will “severely restrict access to critical funding for graduate nursing education, undermining efforts to grow and sustain the nursing workforce.”

“At a time when healthcare in our country faces a historic nurse shortage and rising demands, limiting nurses’ access to funding for graduate education threatens the very foundation of patient care,” Mensik Kennedy said.  “In many communities across the country, particularly in rural and underserved areas, advanced practice registered nurses ensure access to essential, high-quality care that would otherwise be unavailable.”

This is so true, but as Kate Perez notes:

“Graduate students pursuing ‘professional degrees’ on the defined list are able to borrow up to $50,000 per year and up to $200,000 overall. But for students in graduate programs that are not considered ‘professional degrees,’ loans are capped at $20,500 per year.  Graduate programs are limited to $100,000 overall.

“This means students in programs not listed on the list or defined as a ‘professional degree’ could face a lower loan cap when pursuing those programs. The loan changes – and overall adjustments to higher education finances and funding – are slated to take effect on July 1, 2026.”

–On a somewhat related topic, just eight months into her treatment for a rare form of blood cancer, Tatiana Schlossberg, the granddaughter of President John F. Kennedy and daughter of Caroline Kennedy, says the health care system on which she had come to rely on felt “strained, shaky.”

The reason for her concern was the confirmation of her cousin Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the U.S. Health and Human Services secretary in February. In an essay in the New Yorker on Nov. 12, in which she revealed that she had less than a year to live, Schlossberg minced no words about the damage she believes Kennedy’s actions have and will inflict on cancer patients and on medical research.

“As I spent more and more of my life under the care of doctors, nurses, and researchers striving to improve the lives of others, I watched as Bobby cut nearly a half billion dollars for research into mRNA vaccines, technology that could be used against certain cancers,” she wrote.  “Slashed billions in funding from the National Institutes of Health, the world’s largest sponsor of medical research.”

She wrote that doctors and scientists at Columbia University – where her husband worked as a urology resident and where (Columbia Presbyterian hospital) she was being initially treated – didn’t know if they would be able to continue their research, or even have jobs.

“In May, the university laid off a hundred and eighty researchers after federal-funding cuts,” she wrote.

—Louisiana’s top health official, who sought to put the brakes on vaccinations during a 2024 flu outbreak in his state, has been named principal deputy director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), according to multiple reports.

Louisiana Surgeon General Ralph Abraham will work under Jim O’Neill, the CDC’s acting director.

—California had its wettest November on record for wide swaths of the state, particularly in Southern California, with storms dumping as much as 9 inches of rain along the coast as of last Friday before a week of dry weather gave the state a reprieve through Thanksgiving.

Santa Barbara Airport recorded 8.9 inches, breaking the record for the month set in 1965, 6.92 inches, the National Weather Service said.

Downtown Los Angeles recorded its fifth-wettest November since records began being tracked in 1877, with 5.52 inches of rain.  The record November for downtown was in 1965, when 9.68 inches of rain fell.

–The death toll from the horrific Hong Kong high-rise apartment complex fire hit 128, with 200 still missing.  The eight residential blocks had been undergoing renovations since July 2024 and were sheathed in bamboo scaffolding and green mesh, with highly-flammable Styrofoam placed on the outside of the windows facilitating the fire’s rapid spread, let alone the bamboo and mesh.

The fire department said temperatures reached 500C (932F).  Imagine.  It was so hot, areas that were doused reignited.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee called it a “massive catastrophe,” with 4,000-5,000 estimated to be homeless.  Forty percent of the residents are estimated to be at least 65 years old and have lived in the subsidized housing estate since it was built.

It was the biggest fire since in the city since a warehouse blaze killed 176 in 1948.

Authorities on Friday arrested seven men and one woman, including scaffolding subcontractors, directors of an engineering consultant company and project managers supervising the renovation, the Independent Commission Against Corruption said in a statement.

—Southeast Asia has been experiencing torrential rains that in Indonesia’s Sumatra island have killed at least 174, with a tropical cyclone expected to continue hitting the region for days.

The death toll from flooding in southern Thailand has reached at least 145, officials said today.  More than 3.6 million have been affected by floods.

Ninety were killed by flooding in Vietnam.

—Scientists believe they have recorded electrical activity in the Martian atmosphere for the first time, suggesting the planet is capable of lightning!

NASA’s Perseverance rover, which touched down on Mars in 2021, was sent to search for signs of biology and has spent the last four years exploring a crater region.

Electrical discharges were picked up from audio and electromagnetic recordings made by the rover’s SuperCam instrument.

C’mon, Elon…let’s get there!!!

—A copy of the first Superman issue, unearthed by three brothers cleaning out their late mother’s attic, netted $9.12 million this month at a Texas auction house which says it is the most expensive comic book ever sold.

The brothers discovered the comic book in a cardboard box beneath layers of brittle newspapers, dust and cobwebs in their deceased mother’s San Francisco home last year, alongside a handful of other rare comics that she and her siblings had collected on the cusp of World War II.

She had told her children she had a valuable comic book collection hidden away, but they had never seen it until they put her house up for sale and decided to comb through her belongings for heirlooms, said Lon Allen, vice president of comics at Heritage Auctions.

“It was just in an attic, sitting in a box, could have easily been thrown away, could’ve easily been destroyed in a thousand different ways,” Allen said. “A lot of people got excited because it’s just every factor in collecting that you could possibly want all rolled into one.”

The “Superman No. 1” comic, released in 1939 by Detective Comics Inc., is one of a small number of copies known to be in existence (fewer than 500) and is in excellent condition.

—

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

—

Gold $4256…roaring back after brief swoon…Silver new high, $56!
Oil $58.48

Bitcoin: $91,000 [3:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.02; Diesel: $3.76 [$3.06 – $3.55 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 11/24-11/28

Dow Jones  +3.2%  [47716]
S&P 500  +3.7%  [6849]
S&P MidCap  +3.9%
Russell 2000  +5.5%
Nasdaq  +4.9%  [23365]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-11/28/25

Dow Jones  +12.2%
S&P 500  +16.5%
S&P MidCap  +6.0%
Russell 2000  +12.1%
Nasdaq  +21.0%

Bulls 44.4
Bears 20.4

Hang in there.  Travel safe.

Brian Trumbore