Monday, February 2, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:45ish for commodities and bonds.]
It is hoped the partial government shutdown ends Tuesday, but it’s up to the House and it isn’t a done deal. One victim of the shutdown already is no January jobs report this coming Friday as scheduled, the report also containing revisions for 2025. So that kind of sucks. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said, “The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding.”
But we had an important ISM manufacturing PMI for January, and it rose to 52.6 vs. forecasts of 48.5 and 47.9 prior. The reading showed that economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, and the most since 2022, amid improvements in new orders (57.1 vs. 47.4) and production (55.9 vs. 50.7).
Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee cautioned that the strong numbers are “tempered by commentary citing that January is a reorder month after the holidays, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues.”
Meanwhile, President Trump announced that after speaking with Indian Prime Minister Modi this morning, the two agreed to a trade deal “whereby the United Staes will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.” India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to buy more from the U.S. and, potentially, Venezuela. [Trump had actually hiked the tariff on Indian goods to 50% over the Russian oil issue.]
Speaking of oil, crude fell hard today, at one point the steepest one-day drop in over six months, as geopolitical risk premiums eased. President Trump said that Washington is in talks with Iran, reducing fears of near-term supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iranian officials also signaled openness to negotiations, helping calm markets.
U.S. natural gas futures plummeted 25% as near-term weather forecasts shifted toward milder conditions and reduced demand expectations. Forecasts through mid-month point to warmer than normal temperatures across large parts of the country, according to NOAA, which would curb heating and power generation demand.
Gold and silver continued to fall after last Friday’s record profit-taking-driven selloff after their parabolic moves upward; the worst declines since 1980 for both.
And early this morning, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow – signifying six more weeks of winter, but Phil has a lousy track record, just 35% accuracy according to NOAA.
Dow Jones +515, 1.1% [49407]
S&P 500 +37, 0.5% [6976]
Nasdaq +130, 0.6% [23592]
Oil (WTI) $62.20
Gold $4690
Silver $80.10
Bitcoin $77,950 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.57%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.28%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.23%
Back tomorrow.
Brian Trumbore
