Thursday, March 5, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Another incredibly volatile day in global equity and bond markets.
Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes across the Gulf on Thursday evening (local time), with attacks reported in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar.
The UAE warned Dubai residents of incoming projectiles, urging them to seek immediate shelter, before signaling the all clear about an hour later. Bahrain’s oil refinery was hit and set on fire, and there were reports of explosions near Abu Dhabi’s international airport.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that his country hadn’t asked for a ceasefire and had no intention to negotiate.
Earlier, Tehran said it launched drone attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Kuwait, and struck an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, as oil prices hit $80 on West Texas Intermediate, highest since July 2024.
Iranian drones could disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for “months,” according to reports, even if Tehran’s missile-launching capabilities are degraded by U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Iran’s navy says it has targeted at least 10 ships and oil tankers in the Strait since the war began (Reuters tracks nine vessels attacked thus far).
Crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting within days if the strait remains close, potentially cutting 3.3 million barrels per day by day eight of the conflict, Reuters also reported Thursday, citing Wall Street analysis.
Danish shipping giant Maersk suspended operations in the region on Wednesday, including from ports at the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
China’s government has ordered its major refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports amid the rising tensions.
One more…the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is severely impacting the transport of food to the Gulf nations, with over 70% of foodstuffs to the region imported through the Strait. If the war persists, there will be food shortages.
AAA reported that the nationwide average for regular gasoline was $3.25 today, Thursday, up from last Friday’s $2.98, with diesel rising rapidly to $4.16 from last week’s $3.75. To beat a dead horse, the inflation story is really largely about diesel and the cost of goods sold. If shipping costs go up, retailers are hiking prices. Kind of simple.
Asia had a good Thursday, following Wall Street’s rally and seeming stability Wednesday, as the Tokyo Nikkei rose 1.9%, and South Korea’s Kospi, down a record 12% the day before, surged 9.6%. [Yes, it’s nuts there.]
But Wall Street had a very tough Thursday (so expect Asia to plunge anew tonight) amid the soaring energy prices, and across the pond, the London FTSE fell 1.5%, German DAX 1.6% and France CAC-40 was down 1.5%.
Bonds tanked in Europe, with the yield on the German 10-year up to 2.84% from last Friday’s 2.64%; the UK 10-year now 4.54% from 4.23%, and Italy’s 10-year at 3.56% from last week’s 3.27%. These are big moves, sports fans.
The U.S. equity market rallied some late off the lows today…to me, action similar to Monday, which I said was “irrational.”
Tomorrow, we get a big jobs report. However, oil still controls price action in the short term.
Dow Jones -784…1.6% [47954]
S&P 500 -38…-0.6% [6830]
Nasdaq -58…-0.3% [22748]
Oil (WTI) $80.05…up 7%….
Gold $5080
Silver $82.15
Bitcoin $71,235 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.57%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.13%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.14%
Check out my Week in Review tomorrow, Friday, posted around 4:30 PM ET. It will be lengthy.
Have a good weekend.
Brian Trumbore
