Tuesday, March 10, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
The facts…
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., Mar. 10…reg. $3.53…diesel $4.78
[Source: AAA]
In this time, the cost of West Texas Intermediate, WTI, has gone from $67.30 (2/27) to $120 (overnight 3/8) to $95 at settlement on Mon. (3/9) to $77 for a low on Tuesday.
It’s nuts. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, the likes of Kuwait and Iraq have been shutting production, but on Monday in Doral, Florida, at a House Republican retreat, President Trump said, “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.” He told reporters hours later: “We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective. And some people could say they’re pretty well complete. We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely.”
Hours before all these remarks, Trump told CBS News, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
As I noted yesterday that started the slide from $119 to $95, and today, the historic collapse in prices continued…and then around 1:00 p.m. ET, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the “The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.”
This is one tanker. I mean, that’s great. But 60 to 80 tankers a day transit through the Strait, and production is basically shut down in some spots, as noted above, and you don’t just turn production back on. It’s a lengthy process.
But at 1:40, the secretary’s post was taken off his web site.
And around 2:00 p.m., Reuters reported a U.S. official said the U.S. Navy had not escorted any ships through the Strait. [The White House then confirmed it.]
After 3:00 p.m., there were reports Iran was laying mines in the Strait…not confirmed as yet.
Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, said that there would be “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait.
The disruption has not only upended the shipping and insurance sectors but also promises to have drastic domino effects on aviation, agriculture, automotive and other industries, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters on an earnings call.
Nasser noted global inventories of oil were at a five-year low and said the crisis will lead to drawdowns at a faster rate, adding that it was critical that shipping in the Strait resumed.
“There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets and the longer the disruption goes on, the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” he said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not let any oil out of the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting President Trump to threaten to hit Iran “twenty times harder” if it blocked exports.
Cliché Alert…stay tuned!!!
Back to the price of diesel, higher prices show up first in production and transportation costs before reaching consumers. Food is a clear example. USDA researchers have found that rising diesel prices push up retail prices for staples such as potatoes, apples, and tomatoes through transportation costs. But it’s virtually everything you see in your grocery and drug stores that is shipped via trucks.
It is estimated that the Iran conflict could remove 5% to 12% of global diesel consumption. As diesel markets have tightened, refiners have been bidding aggressively for those barrels.
Lastly, there is a lag between the futures markets and the price we see at the pump for gas, and it works both ways. So, expect your local gas station employees to be furiously up on the ladder, or playing with their meters, adjusting prices on the boards. Maybe twice a day.
Oil is calling the shots for equities as well. Up bigly until Sec. Wright’s Fake News! It certainly warrants an investigation.
Oracle earnings after the close are important.
—
It’s conference championship week for hoops in the NCAA and on the men’s side, top-ranked Duke suffered a big blow as coach Jon Scheyer announced today that point guard Caleb Foster had surgery for a broken right foot that will keep him out for an extended period. Starting big man Patrick Ngonba II won’t play in this week’s ACC Tournament while dealing with his own foot issue.
Foster hurt his foot in the first half of Saturday’s win over North Carolina, the second time in his three seasons he has dealt with a right-foot injury that will impact his availability in March. Two seasons ago it was a stress fracture in his right ankle.
So, if you’re a Duke fan, Scheyer hinted that Foster could be back if the team makes an extended run in the NCAA Tournament…like if they made it to the Final Four, that would be about four weeks since the surgery.
Dow Jones -34…-0.1% [47706]
S&P 500 -14…-0.2% [6781]
Nasdaq +1…+0.01% [22697]
Oil (WTI) $86.20…I would not be surprised to see $100 at some point Wed.
Gold $5195
Silver $88.60
Bitcoin $70,043 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.58%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.15%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.16%
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
