Tuesday, April 28, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., Apr. 28…reg. $4.17…diesel $5.46
‘Regular’ up another six cents since Monday to a cycle high…and it’s heading higher still.
President Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is largely about forcing Iran’s oil industry to confront the “shut-in date” when its oil storage capability is exhausted and production literally stops.
That would be a dramatic economic development for Iran, as oil wells are difficult to restart and there is a risk of permanent damage.
The White House’s logic is “that the Iranian economy will be under such strain that the political leadership will accept a deal that Trump can announce,” Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer wrote in a note on Monday.
The problem is that few know when that deadline will hit – and estimates vary considerably.
Bremmer’s own group has suggested that Iran might have about a month’s time to hold out. Others have suggested that things will come to a head earlier in May. Still others have suggested June as a possibility.
But according to reports, around six to eight supertankers laden with Iranian oil were idling in waters near the port of Chabahar in the Gulf of Oman late last week, satellite images and analyses from United Against Nuclear Iran and marine intelligence firm Windward, note, with more smaller tankers nearby. It’s the same area where the U.S. Navy said it had redirected two very large crude carriers that it intercepted last week.
The buildup of tankers at Chabahar is more evidence that Iran is continuing to load oil onto ships, and also that the U.S. blockade appears to be working as an effective barrier to stop the crude getting to customers.
Some 155 million barrels of Iranian crude are either in transit or floating storage all over the world, according to an estimate from Vortexa Ltd. The U.S. increased its pressure on Tehran by boarding tankers in the Indian Ocean.
As for the Iranian proposal on resolving the war, which would set aside discussion of the country’s nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved, President Trump is unhappy with it, the administration’s position being the nuclear issue must be dealt with from the outset.
Then at 9:29 AM today, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Iran has just informed us that they are in a ‘State of Collapse.’ They want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).”
Also this morning we had the bombshell announcement that the UAE was leaving OPEC as of May 1, in a move it says will help it meet changing demand, but which analysts see as a heavy blow to the organization.
“This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs,” the Gulf state said in a statement.
“While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term,” it said.
The country will also exit OPEC+, a group of major oil-producers, and gradually increase production afterward, it added.
OPEC’s influence was already weakening as U.S. oil production soared. And the Emirates plans to accelerate investment in energy production, according to the state news agency.
Before the war, the Emirates was producing about 3.6 million barrels of oil per day, according to the International Energy Agency – roughly 12 percent of OPEC’s overall production.
“The UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions,” the statement said.
As for the market action today, it was a tough day for NASDAQ as the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed key targets for weekly users and revenue, so OpenAI-related stocks took a bit of a header.
And while the UAE’s announcement is big in terms of the future, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, intensifying supply concerns as oil extended its gains for a seventh consecutive session.
Tomorrow, it’s all about the Fed and Chair Powell’s presser, followed by some major earnings reports from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft.
—
Dow Jones -25…-0.1% [49141]
S&P 500 -35…-0.5% [7138]
Nasdaq -223…-0.9% [24663]
Oil (WTI) $99.90…Brent $111.05
Gold $4595
Silver $73.20
Bitcoin $76,340 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.84%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.35%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.45%
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
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