Monday, March 30, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Mar. 30…reg. $3.99…diesel $5.41
I was surprised we didn’t hit $4.00 for a nationwide average over the weekend, let alone today, because gasoline futures have surged to $3.35 today, hitting their highest level since July 2022. We got down to $2.90 last week.
Of the three gas pumps I go to most of the time in my part of New Jersey, it’s been funny watching two of the three stay at $3.99 for regular, $5.99 for diesel, for over a week, not wanting to break the key psychological marks of $4 and $6. The third is the ‘discount’ place (sort of), and it’s at $3.87, when it was $2.89/$2.99 before the war (with the other two at $3.15).
Anyway, look for a renewed spike…coming to a pump near you.
President Trump openly mused about seizing Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in the Persian Gulf, and the United States and Israel kept up their attacks Monday on the Islamic Republic, even as there were some signs of progress in nascent ceasefire talks, according, only it seems, to Trump. Tehran, meanwhile, struck a key water and electrical plant in hard-hit Kuwait.
As a diplomatic effort being facilitated by Pakistan toward ending the war moved ahead, Trump said Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday as “a sign of respect.” At the same time, with 2,500 U.S. Marines now in the region and a similar-sized contingent on its way, he raised the idea of taking the island. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t,” he told the Financial Times in an interview published early Monday. “We have a lot of options.”
Aside from the Marines, hundreds of Special Operations forces were also said to have arrived in the Middle East, giving the president further options.
President Trump then posted on Truth Social, Monday, 7:26 AM:
“The United States of America is in serious discussions with a NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electrical Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year ‘Reign of Terror.’ Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for passage of cargo ships and said the administration is steadily moving to address the shortage of global oil supplies.
“Over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation – whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort,” Bessent said in an interview Monday on Fox News.
Bessent said the global oil market is “in deficit about 10 to 12 million barrels a day, and we’re making up for that deficit.” The International Energy Agency’s coordinated release of strategic reserves amounts to about 4 million barrels a day toward that deficit, he said.
The Treasury chief also pointed to the Trump administration’s move to unsanction Russian and Iranian oil “that was already on the water.” He argued that this decision didn’t net either U.S. rival additional funds, saying that there was “no extra money for either one of those regimes.”
Asked about fears of renewed disruption to supplies via the Red Sea, due to activity from the Iranian-backed Houthi militant group, Bessent said, “The Houthis have been very quiet so far.”
The Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Saturday, and Bessent said their shelling “was Israel specific.” With regard to the Red Sea, Bessent indicated that “they’ve been pretty quiet so far, and I would expect them to likely remain that way.”
The treasury secretary is often full of it. I’ve lost a lot of respect for the man.
–Bonds rallied today as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave some comments to students at Harvard University, wherein he said the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely hinges on how the conflict affects Americans’ expectations about inflation.
“The tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he said. “But a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations.”
Powell also hinted at keeping interest rates unchanged in the short term, looking through the ongoing global energy price shock: “Monetary policy works with long and variable lags, famously, and so, by the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy takes effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone,” he said.
Just a week and a half ago, Fed officials penciled in one rate cut this year when they updated their economic projections. Now, Wall Street forecasters are increasingly expecting a rate hike as the conflict with Iran drags on.
Central bank policymakers are not only facing a global price shock, but they’re also contending with a U.S. labor market that’s still in a precarious state. Higher energy costs themselves, if sustained, could also eventually take a toll on economic growth and hiring.
Today, stocks opened with solid gains after five consecutive down weeks for the three major averages, the Dow and Nasdaq in correction mode (a decline of 10% from the highs), the S&P close to it, before equities declined into the close, though the Dow registered a small gain.
We have some key manufacturing data this week, and then a big jobs report on Friday, even as the stock market is closed that day (bond market is open until noon).
Congrats to Michigan, Arizona, Illinois and UConn for making the NCAA Men’s Final Four. We complete the women’s action to reach their Final Four tonight.
Wednesday, weather permitting, we are all watching the launch of Artemis II. We need some good news…fingers crossed.
Dow Jones +49…+0.1% [45216]
S&P 500 -25…-0.4% [6343]
Nasdaq -153…-0.7% [20794]
Oil (WTI) $103.90…Brent $114.10
Gold $4520
Silver $70.25
Bitcoin $66,499 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.82%…down 9 basis points from Friday’s close…
U.S. 10-yr. 4.34%…down 10 bps…
Japanese 10-yr. 2.36%
Back Tues.
Brian Trumbore
