Tuesday, March 31, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues. Mar. 31…reg. $4.01*…diesel $5.45
Gas prices jumped past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Diesel is just 36 cents shy of its all-time high.
*The AAA price of $4.018 is to be quoted as $4.01, not $4.02, as I ranted ten days ago. It’s just the way you quote such things, including stocks and bond yields. But every news network was saying $4.02. It drives me to drink.
Monday night, I was watching the Mets-Cardinals game (while quaffing a Coors Light), and glancing at the oil futures market on one of my computers, and West Texas Intermediate was up to $106+, after the 4:00 PM price I posted of about $104. Then around 8:30 PM, the oil futures plunged, WTI to below $102, where it was early this morning, all on the following….
The Wall Street Journal reported that “President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”
“In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
“There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren’t his immediate priority, they said.”
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, called ending military operations before the strait is open “unbelievably irresponsible.”
I agree.
But such has been the way of this war and the markets…endless headline volatility.
Early Tuesday morning, Trump then issued two posts on Truth Social:
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT”
“The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A will REMEMBER!!! President DJT”
At an 8:00 AM press conference, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days of the conflict would be decisive, and that the number of projectiles launched by Iran in the past 24 hours represented the lowest during the war.
The U.S. hit a large ammunition depot in the Iranian city of Isfahan with 2,000-pound bunker buster bombs, according to an official, while the United Arab Emirates suffered one of the most intense days of Iranian attacks since the first week of the war. Isfahan is where Iran is reported to have most of its stockpile of enriched uranium.
President Trump, in an interview with the New York Post, said he isn’t thinking about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and remains focused on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
“I don’t think about it, to be honest,” Trump said, yet another just flat-out lie, witness all his Truth Social posts in just the past week. “My sole function was to make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. When we leave, the strait will automatically open.”
Then around 12:30 PM, an unconfirmed report from Iranian state media said Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the war, if conditions were met (which he has said before), and stocks soared, the Dow Jones up over 1,000 in a flash, WTI falling from $104 to $100, Brent to $103. [Brent was $114 at 4:00 PM Monday.]
We then learned Pezeshkian did have a phone call with the European Council president, Antonio Costa. The European Council helps set the foreign policy of the European Union, but it doesn’t have any legislative authority.
Costa posted on X hours before that he held the call with Pezeshkian and that Costa urged “de-escalation and restraint, the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, and the need for all parties to fully respect international law….
“To de-escalate the situation, I urged Iran to stop the unacceptable attacks on countries in the region and to engage positively on the diplomatic track, notably with the UN to ensure the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
“There must be space for diplomacy. The EU stands ready to contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and for a lasting solution to end the hostilities, while addressing the broader security concerns posed by Iran.”
The WANA News Agency of Iran said Pezeshkian characterized the military strikes on his country as a “flagrant violation of the rule of law” and a direct assault on the very principles the EU claims to protect.
The president noted that Iran had entered negotiations with the U.S. sincerely and with a constructive approach, yet it was subjected to illegal attacks for a second time mid-negotiations, alluding to Midnight Hammer. “This proves that [the U.S.] does not believe in diplomacy and merely seeks to dictate its own interests,” he said.
Pezeshkian further clarified that the current situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is a result of hostile and aggressive actions by the U.S. and the Israeli regime.
He added: “The solution to normalizing the situation is to stop their aggressive attacks. We have never sought tension or war at any point, and we have the will to end this war, provided that requirements – especially necessary guarantees for the non-repetition of aggression – are met.”
Pezeshkian warned that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the ships and vessels of the aggressors and their supporters, adding: “Any foreign intervention under any pretext in this war and the current regional situation will have dangerous consequences.”
Aside from the fact it is believed Pezeshkian has minimal power and influence, this is hardly real positive news warranting a massive rally in stocks and bonds…with sliding crude prices, which are still at $100.
But such is life these days. You take it all in, hour by hour, and try to make sense of it best you can.
And it was indeed a spectacular rally today….
Dow Jones +1125…+2.5% [46341]
S&P 500 +184…+2.9% [6528]
Nasdaq +795…+3.8% [21590]
Oil (WTI) $102.05…Brent $104.20
Gold $4684
Silver $75.10…up 7%…
Bitcoin $67,802 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.78%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.29%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.34%
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
