Wednesday, April 29, 2026…4:05 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Apr. 29…reg. $4.22…diesel $5.46
‘Regular’ is up 20 cents in one week.
Gasoline futures surged 18 cents just today to $3.76, though there is some extra volatility due to expiring contracts (April 30). We’ll see how it all shakes out in a few days, but the next contract, for now, is priced about 15 cents lower.
That said, this is much higher than the $2.90-3.00 level I said last week was key for the price at the pump breaking $4.00, nationwide.
The Wall Street Journal, in a story posted Tuesday evening, wrote that President Trump told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade and that it carries less of a risk for the U.S. than resuming hostilities or walking away from the conflict without a deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear activities, citing unnamed American officials.
It’s unclear how much storage and time Iran has left before it would need to close down wells, which may damage them permanently. Analytics firm Kpler estimates it has another 12 to 22 days.
President Trump posted on Truth Social at 4:05 AM ET this morning…4:05 AM!
“Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT”
The post was accompanied by a generated image of Trump in a Rambo pose with the title “No More Mr. Nice Guy!”
Crude oil surged to $108 on West Texas Intermediate. Equities extended their losses when Axios reported the president will keep Iran under a naval blockade until it agrees to a deal that addresses concerns about its nuclear program.
“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said in the phone interview today, according to Axios.
Meanwhile, prior to the 2:00 PM announcement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, Kevin Warsh successfully made it out of the Senate Banking Committee, which advanced his nomination this morning in a 13-11 party-line vote, sending Warsh’s name to the Senate floor for a full vote.
And then the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but revealed a deepening division over the outlook for policy amid increased uncertainty caused by the Iran war.
Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time,” the committee said.
Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point reduction in rates.
The 8-4 vote marked the first time since Oct. 1992 that four officials dissented against an FOMC decision. The committee left their benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
And then as he began his press conference with an amplification of the Fed’s statement, Chair Powell said that while he welcomes the imminent arrival of Kevin Warsh, and that Warsh will be approved as the new chair by the full committee, that he, Powell, will stay on as a Fed governor, as is his right, for as long as it takes until he is certain the series of legal attacks on the Fed and its ability to conduct monetary policy, ceases.
“I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so.” Powell said, “My concern is legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors.”
Despite all that was said over the weekend, with the Justice Department saying it was dropping the case against Powell and the institution regarding the cost to renovate the Fed’s building, he isn’t yet convinced that he couldn’t face a subpoena down the road, even in retirement.
As he put it, he’ll stay on the board until the issue is “well and truly over.”
Powell vowed: “I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.”
Now it’s about the important earnings reports coming out at 4:00 PM.
—
Dow Jones -280…-0.6% [48861]
S&P 500 -2…-0.04% [7135]
Nasdaq +9…+0.04% [24673]
Oil (WTI) $107.80…Brent $119.70
Gold $4550
Silver $71.70
Bitcoin $75,540 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.93%…up 9 basis points from yesterday
U.S. 10-yr. 4.41%…up 6 bps
Japanese 10-yr. 2.45%…unchanged last two days…27-year high…
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
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