Thursday, April 30, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Apr. 30…reg. $4.30…diesel $5.49
‘Regular’ is up 28 cents in eight days.
Oil prices surged to a new wartime high late Wednesday, very early Thursday before we rolled over to a new contract, June, which as I noted in the case of gasoline futures would reflect a price about 15 cents lower than the expiring contract (initially).
But as you can see, oil and gasoline are still sky high, and the effects are being felt far beyond the Persian Gulf region. The price at your local gas pump is no doubt at a new high for the cycle*, and with the impasse in U.S.-Iran talks, the prices are going to stay high for a while as President Trump has been “signaling no end in sight” to restrictions on the flow of energy from the Middle East, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, a research and consulting firm.
“The market’s optimism in a near-term opening is dwindling, and you’re starting to see in the data that this is really starting to come home,” McNally said. “This oil price rise that many of us expect – and we certainly have – is now getting underway.”
*The price at the pump for regular one block from me shot up 20 cents overnight to $4.59, a full 50 cents higher than nine days earlier.
Meanwhile, President Trump was to receive a briefing on new military options for action in Iran, signaling the potential for fresh escalation in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran, including infrastructure targets, according to reporting from Axios. The head of CENTCOM, Adm. Brad Cooper, gave the president a similar briefing on Feb. 26, shortly before the U.S. and Israel started the war, Axios said.
As for the stock market, the Dow Jones surged, largely on the heels of another blowout quarter for Dow component Caterpillar, whose shares rose 10%.
The Big Tech earnings from last night were largely positive (details in my upcoming Week in Review), though Meta and Microsoft shares fell today.
And we had key inflation data today, the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), and while high, was exactly as expected, 3.5% year-over-year on headline, 3.2% on core, ex-food and energy.
We also had our first look at first-quarter GDP, 2.0%, less than consensus, though the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow’s final look pegged it at 1.2%, and we have two revisions to come.
On a lighter note, they have been running test sessions at Indianapolis, ahead of the big event, and yesterday, two-time Indy 500 champ Takuma Sato barely avoided a collision with a fox when the animal ran across the track, as Sato posted the fourth-fastest lap in afternoon testing at 225.109 mph.
“Oh geez, yes, I couldn’t identify what it was, but I could see there was something in there,” the Japanese driver said. “It wasn’t a car part because it was moving. It was more like a natural thing, and it was right in the middle of the corner. But very fortunate we both come back home happy.”
Well, I’m not so sure the fox was, necessarily. He or she went back to the den and their partner I’m sure said, “Dear, you look rather shaken up. What happened?”
—
Dow Jones +790…+1.6% [49652]
S&P 500 +73…+1.0% [7209…new record]
Nasdaq +219…+0.9% [24892..new record]
Oil (WTI) $105.10…Brent $110.75
Gold $4615
Silver $73.65
Bitcoin $76,430 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.89%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.38%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.51%…highest in 30 years…
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up to 6.30%, per today’s release.
Check out my Week in Review, posted Friday around 4:30 PM ET.
Brian Trumbore
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