Wednesday, May 6, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., May 6…reg. $4.53…diesel $5.67
‘Regular’ is up 51 cents in two weeks.
I have to pick up where I left off, Tuesday at 4:00 PM. Late in the afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a White House briefing, said the combat operation launched in February against Iran had ended, suggesting the American priority now was reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“The operation is over. Epic Fury, the president notified Congress, we’re done with that stage of it,” Rubio said, adding: “We achieved the objectives of that operation.”
“We’re now on to this Project Freedom,” he went on, referring to Trump’s initiative to guide merchant ships through the Strait. He added later: “That’s what we’re undergoing now. What they may lead to in the future is speculative.”
Questions about Iran’s nuclear program – including its stockpile of highly enriched uranium – will be resolved through talks, Rubio said.
“As far as a negotiation is concerned, I think the president’s been clear that part of the negotiation process has to be not just the enrichment, but what happens to this material that’s very deep somewhere,” he said.
Project Freedom, however, was off to a halting start. Two U.S.-flagged commercial ships passed through on Monday, but none followed on Tuesday, as global shipping companies continued to say they were not prepared to take the risk.
Then at 6:52 PM ET, President Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
As in top U.S. officials spent Monday and Tuesday offering new details on the role of the U.S. military in helping ships pass through the Strait, and then hours later, Trump shelved the operation entirely after being warned it risked escalating a conflict he is eager to bring to an end.
As we awoke this morning, Wednesday, oil and gasoline futures were collapsing as Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were closing in on an agreement on a one-page memorandum to end the war.
A Pakistani mediator, confirming the Axios story was accurate, told Reuters:
“We will close this very soon. We are getting close.”
Tehran then said it was evaluating a 14-point U.S. proposal.
Among other provisions, Axios said, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions on transit around the Strait.
In its current form, reportedly, the memorandum would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the Strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions, Axios added.
At 7:41 AM, Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
Later Wednesday morning, President Trump told the New York Post it is “too soon” to start thinking about face-to-face peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, despite optimistic reports the two nations were closing in on a potential framework to end their 67-day war.
The Post said it understands multiple versions of the proposal are under discussion, and final points to be included had not yet been decided.
West Texas Intermediate, which had gone from $102 to $89, pared its losses and settled in the mid-$90s. Gasoline futures, which had fallen from $3.62 to $3.33 early this morning, rallied back to the $3.47-48 level. [They hit a four-year high of $3.75 earlier in the week.] Reminder: you aren’t going to see the nationwide price on regular fall back below $4.00 unless gas futures trade below $3.00…more like $2.90ish, and for a while, not just a day or two.
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Dow Jones +612…+1.2% [49910]
S&P 500 +105…+1.5% [7365…record]
Nasdaq +512…+2.0% [25838]
Oil (WTI) $95.10.…Brent $101.30
Gold $4700
Silver $77.50
Bitcoin $81,465 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.86%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.35%…2- and 10-yr. yields fell on the big drop in oil….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.49%
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
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