Tuesday, May 19, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., May 19…reg. $4.53…diesel $5.65
As we left things yesterday, there was limited relief when President Trump said he would delay a planned attack on Iran. Although oil prices came off their highs, Trump’s warning that American forces are ready for an assault “on a moment’s notice” hardly calmed investors’ nerves. Markets are getting tired of the apparent lack of progress around U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Oil prices have so far been kept in check by releases of strategic reserves, commercial inventories and even sanctioned Russian supplies – a waiver to purchase the latter having just been extended by the U.S.
But as the International Energy Agency has been warning, average demand of 104 million barrels a day this year will outstrip supplies of around 102.2 million barrels and that assumes a normalization of supplies from June.
Trump then told reporters today, Tuesday, that he could resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said Monday that he had called off an attack.
“I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit,” the president said. When asked how long he would wait, he said: “Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week – a limited period of time.”
Trump’s ability to move the markets is fading as he issues threats that he doesn’t follow through on.
But he is moving the global bond market as the jump in energy prices caused by the war adds to inflation fears, pushing investors to bet central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will raise interest rates. And you have mounting government deficits that are prompting investors to demand greater compensation to own longer-maturity debt.
The UK 10-year bond hit its highest yield since 2008 today, Germany’s 10-year highest since 2011. And you see below, Japan is at a 30-year high.
The U.S. 30-year yield hit 5.19% today, reaching a level last seen on the eve of the 2007 global financial crisis.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell a third consecutive day after last Thursday’s record highs.
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Dow Jones -322…-0.7% [49363]
S&P 500 -49…-0.7% [7353]
Nasdaq -220…-0.8% [25870]
Oil (WTI) $104.30…Brent $111.25
Gold $4485
Silver $73.95
Bitcoin $76,760 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.11%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.66%…highest since Jan. 2025….
Japanese 10-yr. 2.77%…hit 2.80%, highest since 1996….
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
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