Wed., July 29, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., July 29…regular $4.09…diesel $5.32 …unchanged from Tues.
Oil & Gas prices surged today, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at American forces in the Middle East early Wednesday as the U.S. partnered with Saudi Arabia to strike Tehran-backed militias in neighboring Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters, including six Iranian advisers (it not being known if the ‘six’ were included in the 20 figure, according to Iranian militia officials).
All of the missiles were successfully intercepted in what was described as a “surprise attack,” though it should hardly have been a surprise.
The Iran-backed militias in Iraq had launched drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region for a second consecutive day. There were also reports Yemen’s Houthis were considering charging fees for vessels transiting the Red Sea.
The flare-up on multiple fronts, after several days of relative calm, raised the risk of a return to all-out war. The fighting added to concerns that the U.S. is further drawing down already diminished stockpiles of sophisticated munitions needed to defend its bases and allies.
Wednesday morning, President Trump told a Fox News reporter: “We’re going to beat the f—ing s— out of them. We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”
Earlier Iran had said there’s no change to the status of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning it’s likely to continue targeting commercial ships that don’t receive its permission before transiting.
Separately, Reuters reported Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile launchers. Iran’s foreign ministry didn’t comment. China’s foreign ministry denied the report, saying: “China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and ending the conflict.” [A rather comical statement, I’d say.]
West Texas Intermediate rose more than $6 to above $84, Brent 7% to $90, while gasoline futures, which a few days ago had gotten down to $3.25, climbed as high as $3.40.
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At 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve then held the line on interest rates. In its statement, the Fed said:
“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9-3 vote:
“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 ½ to 3 ¾ percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
“Inflation remans elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
“Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point at this meeting.”
It was the same wording as in June.
Minutes before the announcement, the Fed-sensitive 2-year Treasury was trading with a yield of 4.31%. Minutes after it fell to 4.25%.
The crucial 10-year was at 4.63% prior, 4.62% minutes after.
We then had Chair Kevin Warsh’s second press conference and he stressed, again, “There is no soft inflation target…it’s 2%.” And he basically said the markets have been doing the Fed’s work, taking yields higher since the last meeting, i.e., the Fed is looking at the message of the markets…as in the market will decide where to go.
Warsh also emphasized the remarkable surge in capex spending on the part of the tech sector as being a significant part of economic growth.
During the press conference, Warsh noted that the Fed’s ‘current’ preferred inflation barometer is indeed the PCE (personal consumption expenditures index), and the next update on that is tomorrow. As I mused the other day, I wonder how much the FOMC knows, if anything, ahead of the figures.
At the end of the press conference, 3:15 PM ET, the 2-year yield was at 4.23%, the 10-year 4.64%.
What you see below, however, is the market closing prices, or as close to them as I can get, understanding I need to publish quickly.
I will have more on the Fed and Chair Warsh tomorrow, Thurs. [Yes, the commentary, ‘What are you waiting for,’ re the two, will be prominent.]
In the end, stocks did not like Chair Warsh’s presentation, and after a rally of some sorts following the release, and early in the press conference, by the end of it stocks were swooning, and the yield on the 10-year I just noted rose.
Meta and Microsoft earnings after the close….
Dow Jones -1153…-2.2% [51594]
S&P 500 -112…-1.5% [7316]
Nasdaq -433…-1.7% [24442]
Oil (WTI) $84.95…Brent $90.70
Gold $4070
Silver $57.75
Bitcoin $63,515 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.24%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.67%…the 30-year hit 5.20%, highest since 2007!
Japanese 10-yr. 2.73%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
