Thurs., July 30, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., July 30…regular $4.09…diesel $5.33
‘Regular’ is unchanged since Tues., while gasoline futures have been hanging out around the $3.30 mark (before a dip to $3.25 after 2:00 PM this afternoon) and, to beat a dead horse, to get back to the $3.85 level at the pump, we need gas futures down at $2.90 or so.
Crude oil traded around $84 per barrel on Thursday as markets balanced renewed geopolitical tensions against signs that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were improving. According to Kpler, 14 commodity vessels transited Hormuz in both directions on Wednesday, up from single-digit levels seen last week.
Meanwhile, ample crude inventories in China continued to limit import demand, easing some supply concerns.
Still, U.S. forces completed a “heavy wave” of strikes against Iran last night in retaliation for Tuesday’s attempted ballistic missile attacks on American forces.
Centcom said it hit “dozens” of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in response to Iran’s firing on U.S. bases in Jordan and at ships in the Strait.
Axios reported that Saudi defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump on Wednesday, with bin Salman conveying that Saudi Arabia wants to de-escalate tensions.
Meanwhile, stocks recovered from yesterday’s drubbing, helped immensely by a great earnings report from Microsoft, whose shares were up 17% as it reported its Azure Cloud business grew at a faster pace than expected (and best pace since 2022), while spending on capex seemed to hit investors’ sweet spot. As in the huge spending is resulting in solid growth.
Semiconductor/chip stocks also staged a big comeback rally, with South Korea’s memory chip king SK Hynix surging 17% as well, befitting a South Korean market that may have staged a significant reversal today, the Kospi index finishing down just 1%, after being down 22% the past two days, and 44% from the peak a month earlier, at the intraday lows. SK Hynix had fallen 15% on Wednesday after its earnings report.
As for yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee decision to stand pat, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s performance at his press conference, the bond market (and stocks) were unimpressed. For all of his tough talk about taming inflation, he’s not rushing fast enough to deliver; as in, ‘What are you waiting for?’ The 30-year Treasury shot up as much as 14 basis points to nearly 5.23%, a 19-year high.
The moves in Treasury yields revealed investors are growing increasingly concerned that Warsh won’t manage to rein in inflation that has run above the Fed’s 2% target for five straight years.
This morning we got the key personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for June and the numbers came in as expected, -0.1% from a month ago on headline, 3.7% year-over-year, and on core, ex-food and energy, 0.1% (a tick less than consensus) and 3.3% vs. a year ago.
This last number, 3.3%, is the money ball, and Fed Chair Warsh during the press conference said something that seemed to escape a lot of folks today…he explicitly said that for now, the PCE is still the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer. Warsh’s task force looking into improving how the Fed measures inflation may decide there is a better barometer (though I doubt it), and the bottom line is, yes, 3.3% is not 2%.
One more on the bond market and the Fed. After yesterday’s non move, initially traders increased their bets the Fed would now hike rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting, though the odds fell some today.
I just think this is too close to the midterm elections. Then again, they can’t move at the Oct. 27-28 confab, which would leave December to finally hike, and that is far too long a time to wait to do so.
It’s about Warsh’s credibility. The market believes he lost it yesterday. When will he get it back?
Amazon and Apple earnings coming shortly…3-2-1….
Dow Jones +613…+1.2% [52208]
S&P 500 +121…+1.7% [7437]
Nasdaq +679…+2.8% [25122]
Oil (WTI) $83.70…Brent $89.05
Gold $4110
Silver $59.15
Bitcoin $64,750 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.23%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.66%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.79%…the Bank of Japan with a decision on rates tonight…10:00 PM ET…I have my beer ready [not being a fan of sake.]
Tomorrow, check out my Week in Review, published Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
