Mon., Sept. 21, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Sept. 21…regular $4.47…diesel $6.51 [record]
Crude oil (WTI) fell hard today, to the $95 level, $100 on Brent, amid optimism that diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Iran War could bear fruit, as well as signs that oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain resilient.
President Trump said over the weekend he would probably be open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian during this week’s UN General Assembly in New York. I believe that would be Friday, should it come about.
Trump may also meet with other Persian Gulf leaders, while he is scheduled to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi, the state dinner at the White House Thursday night with all the tech leaders. It’s a busy week for the man who sits behind the Resolute Desk.
Meanwhile, in terms of the slide in oil prices, U.S. Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper said crude and LNG flows through the Strait have reached a six-month high, with the main transit lanes clear of mines. Middle East oil flows averaged 17.1 million barrels per day over the past 10 days, despite Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remaining disrupted after recent attacks.
In terms of what you pay at the pump, gasoline futures fell about 2%, though heating oil (think diesel, they are essentially interchangeable) futures fell over 3% to roughly the $4.85 level. Heating oil peaked on Sept. 16 at $5.25, so then the delayed reaction, for example, in the diesel price hitting another new high today, five days later, as you see above.
Ergo, we need a continuing fall in the future’s price. As in late June and early July, heating oil futures were trading around $3.20, when the price of diesel at the pump was about $4.80. [Just check my terrific archives for this column, in this example ‘Market Update July 2’.]
Anyway, stocks surged a bit, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a lot (to a new record), and Treasury yields fell some, but not that much off Friday’s highs.
It’s been a simple equation. Oil rises, stocks and bonds fall (yields rise). Oil falls, stocks and bonds rally (yields decline).
So, let’s hope the diplomatic efforts bear fruit. The Houthis are as much of a key as the Iranians are in their impact on crude oil, and the Iranian-backed militia is under pressure from many parties to back off from attacking Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, let alone its capital, Riyadh, as the militants did this weekend.
We have no market-moving economic releases, or earnings reports this week. And the Trump-Xi summit will be carefully choreographed to prevent any real drama. At least that’s the plan.
—
Dow Jones +367…+0.7% [52048]
S&P 500 +114…+1.5% [7764]
Nasdaq +599…+2.3% [27122… record]
Oil (WTI) $95.60…Brent $100.20
Gold $4350
Silver $66.10
Bitcoin: $86,472 [4:00 PM ET…another 6% rally…]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.75%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.95%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.95%…a little shy of a 30-year high…
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
