Wed., Sept. 16, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Sept. 16…regular $4.36…diesel $6.31 [record]
[The price of diesel at the pump down the street from me, admittedly one of the more expensive gas stations in the area, has jumped from $5.99 to $6.79 since last Thursday!]
Crude oil (WTI) fell below $103 (and then some) after closing above $105 Tuesday (Brent below $106 from nearly $109), as markets assess the potential recovery of Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline. Saudi Aramco is reportedly working to bypass a damaged section of the route, aiming to restore around half of its capacity within days and return the pipeline to full operation in roughly six weeks.
The Saudis have also increased efforts to move more crude through the Strait with U.S. military assistance.
Meanwhile, we were waiting for the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee statement on interest rates at 2:00 PM, and we got this, short and sweet:
“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12-0 vote:
“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
“Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
In the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), 16 of 18 participants projected another rate hike this year, which would be in December.
In his press conference, Warsh emphasized inflation is too high, noting “core PCE” and “core CPI” were still well over 2%. Referring to his Jackson Hole speech, where he said that Fed officials want to be confident that underlying inflation is moving to the target “clearly and at sufficient speed.”
“Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied,” Warsh says.
The chair said individual “data points are noisy,” but “trends matter.” As in look at 3 or more readings on core PCE to see if there is a trend. And the trends haven’t been favorable.
Warsh noted commodity prices have been rising, not heading in the right direction, so that’s a big focus of his.
But in the end, he wanted to reemphasize the Fed is committed to price stability…and the job isn’t finished.
I agree with Doubleline’s Jeffrey Gundlach, who said on CNBC after that the content in the presser was “pretty thin.”
The bond market’s reaction was telling. Prior to the Fed decision, 1:59 PM, the 2-year yield was down to 4.60%, the 10-year 4.94%.
Prior to the press conference at 2:30 PM, the two had risen to 4.63% and 4.95%, respectively.
Warsh finished up early, 2:58 PM, and yields had jumped to 4.72% and 5.00%. [The yields I list below are for roughly 3:50 PM.]
Stocks, which had been mixed prior to the Fed decision, fell hard after, though pared their losses late.
—
Dow Jones -630…-1.2% [51462]
S&P 500 -33…-0.4% [7552]
Nasdaq -3…-0.01% [25978]
Oil (WTI) $101.90…Brent $105.35
Gold $4270
Silver $63.05
Bitcoin: $76,030 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.72%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.01%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.98%
Back Thurs.
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Brian Trumbore
