Mon., Sept. 14, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Sept. 14…regular $4.31…diesel $6.23 [record]
Crude oil (WTI) hit $104 this morning, Brent $109, the highest in four months, on mounting curbs to supply from the Midde East due to the war in Iran. Saudi Arabia was forced to close its East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraqi territory. The strikes suspended activity in infrastructure that was allocating 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea, acting as an alternative to halted shipments through the Persian Gulf due to the Iranian blockade on oil exports from the Gulf states, or GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council).
By mid-afternoon, WTI and Brent had fallen back to the $101/$105 range.
Why? President Trump had posted on Truth Social late AM:
“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT”
Of course, there was no agreement. This was a figment of Trump’s imagination.
Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X an hour later:
“Ukraine has proposed that its partners secure an agreement with Russia that would stop the destruction of critical infrastructure. Food, energy, and other basics that sustain life must be protected… Every day, Ukrainian energy facilities, port infrastructure, logistics, and even warehouses storing food and pharmaceuticals are targeted. Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement.
“If our partners are ready to ensure that Russia genuinely refrains from striking our electricity system, other facilities, critical infrastructure, and food supply routes, then, of course, we are ready to ensure a corresponding halt to our strikes….”
In Ireland, Sunday, Trump had called on President Zelensky to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is “hurting the world.”
“Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing: He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump told journalists. “We spoke to Mr. Zelensky about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel. That’s hurting the world.”
President Trump on Truth Social, 12:35 PM:
“Oil is flowing through the Hormuz Strait. The Countries of the World, which have been no help to us whatsoever, should, and will, reimburse the United States of American when this SCAM Confligration [sic] is all over. We are doing it much more for others, than we are for ourselves, and we have been for Generations!”
Meanwhile, scheduled talks between the GCC and Iran, aimed at conjuring joint efforts to restart oil supply from the region, were postponed.
The events deepened the prolonged halt of tanker flows from the region that have driven major oil producers to halt their operations, with Saudi output recently dropping to its lowest since 1990. Dwindling stockpiles of oil in China drove the major importer to raise orders in August, while the U.S. SPR stands at a near record low.
Separately, disruptions along Yemen’s Red Sea coast are constraining shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
EIA data showed U.S. distillate inventories remained 13% below the five-year average in the week ended September 4, while refineries operated at 97.8% of capacity, leaving limited room to boost output. With seasonal agricultural activity underway and the winter heating season approaching, demand could strengthen further, adding pressure to already-tight distillate supplies.
U.S. heating oil (interchangeable with diesel) climbed to $5.10 per gallon, a record high (ditto diesel) amid the mounting supply disruptions and concerns over already-tight distillate markets, but it, too, backed off after Trump’s post.
Regarding the Iran War in general, President Trump said he would only make the “right deal” and wouldn’t do one that was “no good,” adding that Iran was “calling constantly” for peace talks – an assertion that Tehran has dismissed in the past.
Trump added in remarks while in Ireland: “We’ll ultimately get out (of Iran), unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela.”
Stocks had a down day, though losses weren’t as bad as they were in the morning. AI-related issues fell after all the doom and gloom from AI executives over the weekend. I’ll cover the topic in depth in my next ‘Week in Review.’
Wednesday is the big Fed rate decision. Kevin Warsh & Co. are expected to raise the benchmark funds rate 25 basis points.
—
Dow Jones -152…-0.3% [52421]
S&P 500 -37…-0.5% [7619]
Nasdaq -146…-0.6% [26186]
Oil (WTI) $101.65…Brent $106.05
Gold $4285
Silver $63.05
Bitcoin: $78,977 [3:30 PM ET]
U.S. 2-year. 4.65%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.98%…hit 5.00% intraday…
Japanese 10-yr. 2.97%
Back Tues.
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Brian Trumbore
