Thurs., Oct. 15, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Oct. 15…regular $4.33…diesel $6.31
Diesel was up another two cents overnight, and it is working its way through the price chain and the economy. I was on this topic long before most folks, as any regular reader of these updates knows.
Today, we had producer prices for September, and like the CPI yesterday, the PPI was far worse than expected…1.3% over August on headline, 6.3% year-over-year, with 5.3% being the consensus, a massive miss. On core, ex-food and energy, the numbers were also far greater than forecast, 0.7% and 5.0%.
Did bond yields rise? No. While the odds of a Fed rate hike increased for the October meeting, in less than two weeks, concerns over debt loads in the AI space have caused a flight to quality in Treasuries. I cover that in depth in my upcoming Week in Review.
I mean earlier in the week, the yield on the 10-year spiked to 5.36% and two days later we were at 5.05%.
Is 5.36% a peak? It’s possible. That’s not a bad yield vs. the alternatives. But it’s still really all about the Middle East, Russia/Ukraine and their hits on each other’s energy infrastructure, particularly in the case of Russian refineries, and until tensions ease in both, inflation remains a serious issue that redounds to those holding lots of debt; be it governments, Corporate America, or Joe and Susie Jones.
Crude oil hit $98 today, with Brent hanging out at $106, the highest on WTI in one month, as markets continued to focus on mounting risks to supply in the Middle East.
Bloomberg data has 26 ships, both of the energy and commercial cargo variety, getting hit by projectiles in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz in October, a rather significant number, and yesterday, a cargo ship was hit, caught fire, and sank…the crew of 21 rescued. It is not known who fired it. But insurance rates for all ships transiting the area, and the Red Sea, have skyrocketed. The events also dim prospects that oil exports from GCC countries could pick up, adding further strain to the global supply backdrop.
Separately, data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed that crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to Oct. 9, the sharpest decline since February. In addition, the federal Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged near its record low.
And the IEA (International Energy Agency) warned that diesel market tightness could persist into next year, while forecasting global oil consumption would contract by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA said U.S. crude stocks declined by 11.1 million barrels last week.
In South Korea, the Kospi Index fell another 7% and is now down 39% from its June 22 peak; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix major components of this benchmark.
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The Dodgers are on the verge of being swept, falling last night to the Brewers 6-2, Game 4 tonight back in L.A.
It’s kind of simple. Milwaukee, in taking the 3-0 series lead, has beaten two, 2-time Cy Young Award winners (Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell) and the best postseason pitcher of his era, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. You do that, you deserve to be in the World Series.
Dow Jones +556…+1.1% [52178]
S&P 500 +25…+0.3% [7744]
Nasdaq +20…+0.1% [26713]
Oil (WTI) $97.75…Brent $105.75
Gold $4170
Silver $57.40
Bitcoin: $82,307 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.76%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.09%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.88%…like in the U.S., sizable decline off the recent high….
Check out my Week in Review, posted Fridays at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
