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Edition 1,436
Imagine the final days that the House and Senate will be in session this year. There will be a lot of Republicans lined up on their respective ‘floors’ to give their farewell addresses. And you no doubt know that many of them are now scrambling for gigs as paid cable ‘contributors.’ Only so many will make it. [Defeated New York Republican congressman Mike Lawler is a natural to be one, says moi.]
What we saw Tuesday was a bloodbath and as I go to post, the Senate is 54-44, with Alaska and Mississippi still to be decided, while the House is 253-161, 21 seats yet to be determined.
Gary Cohn, Donald Trump’s director of the National Economic Council and chief economic adviser in his first term, said on CNBC that while 3.4% GDP in the third quarter is good, the election was about food, housing, healthcare, and surging energy prices.
Pollster Frank Luntz, also on CNBC, noted that in his focus groups of voters who went for Trump in 2024 and then flipped, Luntz asked them the question of whether their vote was against the GOP or about embracing Democrats. Almost unanimously it was ‘against the GOP.’
Voters acknowledged making a mistake in 2024…they had ‘bought into him (Trump).’
Trump has vowed he can now work with Democrats, but these are the same people he’s called (and still calls) “Dumocrats,” as well as “Communists” and “Lunatics.”
Mitt Romney on X:
“Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies. Hoping for a course correction, for the country and for my party.”
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz (Tx.) on X:
“2026 was not simply a blue wave; it was a blue tsunami. It was an ass-kicking. It was not simply a bad 2026 midterm election. It was a Watergate-level repudiation. What happened, and why? What are the consequences, and where on earth do we go from here?”
Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose state beat back stiff Democratic challengers for governor and the U.S. senate, barely:
“Let’s just be clear about what happened last night – this is close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country,” DeSantis said at a news conference.
Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal:
“Apart from the outcome, the president got what he wanted from the midterms. He was the center of attention and chose his party’s nominees in key contests. He escaped the White House, drawing comfort from the adulation of true believers who packed his rallies.
“This midterm defeat, one of the worst in a half-century, leaves the Trump presidency crippled. There’s no chance of confirming a conservative Supreme Court justice in the next two years, and maybe the next six. Republicans who have been afraid to break with the president will now do so, if only for self-preservation. The president will dodge responsibility and blame others. He’s already proclaimed on X, ‘I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE.’ Not true.
“Mr. Trump can’t escape blame so easily. He and his policies and candidate choices burned the Republican Party to the ground.”
Separately, Greg Ip / Wall Street Journal:
“The startling rise of candidates backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, both Democratic socialists, may leave the impression that the incoming Congress will be hellbent on a far-left agenda of wealth taxes, Medicare for All and a Green New Deal.
“Not so fast. Judging by the candidates who delivered their majorities, Democrats may be moving toward the center.
“Third Way, a centrist Democratic advocacy group, figures that as of Wednesday afternoon, candidates endorsed exclusively by moderate groups – New Democrat Coalition, Blue Dog Coalition, or WelcomePAC – had flipped 26 districts, with four more highly likely. By contrast, candidates endorsed exclusively by Sanders’ political-action committee, Our Revolution, had flipped just three. Candidates backed both by a moderate group and Our Revolution flipped another three.
“Senate vote margins tell a similar story; Centrist Democrats outran 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by an average of 21 percentage points; progressives by just 5. Moderates ran 5 points ahead of Democratic House candidates in their states; progressives ran 5 points behind, Third Way estimates.”
But with the election of socialist Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayoral race, we do have DSA mayors in the two biggest cities in the U.S., New York and L.A. But not necessarily in ‘fly over’ country.
–Lastly, congratulations to the much-maligned pollsters, who nailed it this year. Tuesday morning, the New York Times released the final Times/Siena poll on the key Senate races and got six of the seven right, some of them within a percentage point or two of what they were projecting, with Alaska still to be decided, which the Times/Siena poll pegged at 48-46 Peltola.
Those approval ratings I post every week in this column were accurate. When a president has an approval rating of 40%, or less, it is meaningful. We had a big clue when last Friday, I noted the Rasmussen figure at just 41%, this historically being a survey thought to skew towards Trump.
Much more below.
—
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and his Ukrainian counterpart, David Arakhamia, were in the White House on Thursday to celebrate the limited ceasefire and humanitarian exchange that they said had been brokered by first lady Melania Trump. But the president said that only Dmitriev was ushered in for a private meeting with him.
Addressing reporters in the Oval Office later, Trump said that Russia and the United States are close to making a “big, beautiful agreement,” not just about Ukraine but about “all of Europe.”
Trump offered no specifics about what he had discussed with Dmitriev, who will represent Putin in talks next week in Abu Dhabi, but his vow was likely to set off alarm bells in Kyiv and around Europe, since it appeared that Trump had again excluded Ukrainian representatives from discussions about their own future.
“It’s going to be a big agreement, and it’s going to involve more than Ukraine. It’s going to be a very big, it’s going to involve more than Ukraine, and I would even say it might involve all of Europe. It’s going to be a big, beautiful agreement, and everyone’s going to be thrilled,” Trump told reporters.
This is bad enough. But when Trump was asked whether he had raised Putin’s targeting of Ukrainian civilians in apartments and buses and schools, he said yes, “and I also bring it up the other way, because the other way they kill, a lot of people are being killed. …You know, Russia is losing civilians also.” [Washington Post]
I’ve expressed my views of the president and his relationship with Vlad the Impaler countless times in this space, and let’s just see what happens next week.
On the Iran conflict, President Trump, in a phone interview with the Wall Street Journal Tuesday night, said the war was partially to blame for widespread Republican losses. But he maintained that he didn’t regret launching the war.
“Iran was a piece of it,” when asked whether the war contributed to the GOP’s poor performance. But he has struggled for months to end the conflict and complained to advisers about how it has become a constant problem.
“I don’t think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again,” he said.
The president rejected the notion that the results were a rebuke of his presidency, even as Republicans lost in deep-red states such as Kansas, South Carolina and Texas, and his poll numbers have dropped significantly across many states.
“It was a point in time, and I wasn’t on the ballot,” he said. “The biggest issue is that I wasn’t on the ballot.”
The president acknowledged that some Republicans on the ballot “could have been better.” But some of the candidates were pushed by Trump himself.
The president told Fox News in a midnight interview, Tuesday: “If I was on the ballot, they would have gotten out. Look, they got out for the rallies. You never saw rallies that big.”
Earlier Tuesday, Trump told the Financial Times that he had no immediate plan to renew strikes against Iran.
On ongoing indirect negotiations with Tehran, Trump claimed, “We seem to be getting everything we want.”
Doubtful.
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Nov. 6…$90.85…down $12 on the week….
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, Nov. 6…regular $4.06; diesel $6.23
As it went down, day by day in the Iran War….
Iranian negotiators were in Doha Sunday for a third consecutive days of talks with Qatari mediators aimed at pushing for a deal to end the war. The talks come amid concerns that the conflict could escalate again after the midterm elections.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghqchi said on Sunday that the purpose of the “ongoing and progressing” talks was to continue consultations with the Qataris, adding Tehran is prepared for “both defense and diplomacy.”
Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera quoted Araqchi as saying in an interview on Saturday that Iranian and Qatari negotiators had developed a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of a potential agreement with Washington.
“Our conditions include lifting the sanctions imposed following the Islamabad memorandum and reducing U.S. forces in the region,” Araghchi added, a reference to the June ceasefire agreement that later collapsed. “We demand the restoration of oil waivers and the release of all our frozen funds, including those held in Qatar.”
Iran has repeatedly said it would respond to any new attacks by striking U.S. and Israeli targets in neighboring countries.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday ordered the armed forces to be prepared for any attack, while the military later announced steps to strengthen its readiness.
“Every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations,” Mojtaba Khameni told the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Army and the General Staff of the Armed Forces, according to statement on Telegram.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that Trump had not decided whether to launch new strikes against Iran, but would prefer to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
“What the Iranian regime is basically arguing is unless we get what we want, not only will we blow up ships, but we will destroy the energy infrastructure of our neighbors in the entire region,” he said in a news conference after a Group of 20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta. “Just think about that, because I think we skip over that like that’s some sort of normal behavior. That’s not normal behavior. That’s not.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government has been granted more authority by the supreme leader to pursue peace talks.
“We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue and, in this regard, the Supreme Leader has also granted powers to the government,” the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Pezeshkian as saying.
But major differences remain between the warring sides. Tehran wants a U.S. naval blockade of its ports lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping. Washington is demanding concessions related to Iran’s nuclear program.
Foreign Minister Araghchi said: “We have presented our terms and plans, and everything depends on Washington’s political rationality. If they intend deception and military operations, they will face a response harsher and heavier than before.”
There is nothing new here. But on Monday, the oil market reacted as if there was and prices plummeted 8%.
At the same time, however, oil production from the Gulf states is indeed back to prewar levels, and that’s the best reason for oil to slide.
But then Tuesday, oil rallied back some on reports of a U.S. attack on Iran’s Qeshm Island, described as defensive.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that “the ball is in the U.S. court” regarding a potential agreement to end the conflict, while President Trump issued the following on Truth Social Monday afternoon:
“Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran. Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
It was in September that Iran proposed a phased deal to reopen the Strait, in which the warring countries would take turns to make concessions, culminating in Tehran ensuring safe passage through the Strait, while Washington would lift a naval blockade on Iran’s ports.
After that initial phase, Iran proposed that the two sides could begin negotiating a comprehensive peace deal that would restart talks over its nuclear enrichment program. U.S. officials rejected this proposal, saying Iran should commit to nuclear concessions earlier.
There were reports Thursday that Iran had sent the United States a nuclear proposal via Qatar, to be discussed only after Washington meets Tehran’s seven demands, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.
Iran’s top security official Mohsen Resaei had said earlier Thursday, during a visit to Russia: “On the issue of diplomacy, we have announced seven conditions to the Americans. As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations.”
The New York Times reported today that, according to two Iranian officials and an American official, Rezaei in private is showing more openness to discuss the nuclear issue.
We’ll soon find out.
–We had multiple reports, according to new analysis, on how Iran’s strikes on more than two dozen U.S. bases in the Middle East focused on early-warning systems before hitting aircraft and buildings, causing billions of dollars in equipment damage.
New satellite imagery from multiple providers, and numerous regional officials who were briefed or have firsthand knowledge of what was hit, revealed that more than 115 drone or missile strikes claimed by Iran or Iranian-backed militias damaged or destroyed structures on 26 military bases and other sites with U.S. equipment.
We have had similar reporting since the start of the war, but the damage significantly reshaped the American foothold in the Middle East, as, for example, I noted recently that the U.S. has moved many of its assets out of the Persian Gulf, including aircraft, air defense systems, communications systems and other equipment crucial to base operations.
Between April 1 and June 30, Iranian strikes had damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and other structures on U.S. bases.
Meanwhile, what was already destined to be a bad year for Middle East airlines got even worse in October when missiles pummeled the Saudi capital’s airport, killing more than a dozen people and prompting authorities to suspend the hub’s operations.
From the deadliest bombing on Oct. 10 through Oct. 27, about 94% of the 4,345 flights scheduled to depart Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport were canceled, according to data provided by Cirium Ltd.
From Feb. 1 through Oct. 27, a total of 26,561 flights were canceled at three of the region’s biggest airports – Dubai, Doha and Riyadh. That’s a fivefold increase from a year earlier.
Air France recently extended its flight suspensions to Riyadh until Dec. 12. KLM canceled its service to the capital and Damman through Nov. 27.
A combination of windfalls from oil revenue, a strategic location between Europe and Asia and relative insulation from nearby conflicts strengthened the aviation industry’s development in the Gulf.
The results were impressive: Dubai’s airport usurped London’s Heathrow as the world’s busiest international airport in 2014, and carriers including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways won global accolades for their services.
That momentum slowed considerably after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 and the longstanding conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militants reignited.
—Jordanian border guards stopped a group of 14 armed individuals attempting to cross into the country from Syria, state news agency Petra quoted the armed forces as saying on Saturday.
They tried to infiltrate on Friday under heavy fire and direct engagement, causing numerous casualties among the group. Some fled back into Syria, the armed forces said.
The attempted infiltration came after Jordan launched airstrikes on southern Syria, saying it targeted hideouts of militant groups it linked to a deadly attack on a church in Jordan earlier this month. It said more than 20 Islamic State militants were killed in the strikes.
Nine people were killed and at least 34 wounded when gunmen opened fire during a funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in the village of Hamoud, in Jordan’s southern Karak governate, on Oct. 23.
King Abdullah ordered an “iron fisted” response by security forces to the highly unusual attack on Jordan’s Christian minority, which he and other top officials blamed on “extremist terrorists.”
—In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to question last week’s elections weakened Sunday as officials said the vote would not be undermined by the allegations and a court ordered suspects in one case released.
In an image that indicated officials were on the same page, the head of Israel’s elections committee was shown sitting between Israel’s attorney general and the head of the Shin Bet intelligence service for a statement making clear that even if claims of foreign intelligence raised last week are substantiated, the vote would stand.
Netanyahu’s Likud party has said, without giving evidence, that Arab-led parties “stole” the elections in which Netanyahu’s bloc lost its majority of seats in parliament. By casting doubt on the vote, Netanyahu appears to be trying to block any potential alliance in the opposition with the Arab parties that could force him from office.
Netanyahu’s bloc of allies dropped to 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, down from a peak of 68 in the outgoing parliament.
A bloc of parties led by his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, won 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won the remaining 19.
President Isaac Herzog then began meeting with each of the parties elected to parliament to see who they prefer to be the next prime minister.
Following these consultations, he will choose the candidate – most likely Netanyahu or Eisenkot – who he believes has the best chance of forming a coalition government.
That then sets the stage for weeks of negotiations.
Netanyahu has suggested that it would be treasonous for Eisenkot to join with Arab parties. Some Israelis agree.
But at week’s end, Eisenkot was inching closer to becoming prime minister as 67 of the 120 incoming members of parliament declared their support for him to replace Netanyahu, after discussions with Herzog. You do the math…48+19=67.
Some hurdles remain as some members of Eisenkot’s coalition had previously expressed opposition to forming a government with the Arab parties, and Herzog said he would work to clarify the situation before choosing someone to form a government Sunday.
Separately, President Trump on Tuesday suddenly said he had made a deal with Netanyahu that Washington would stop $4 billion in annual funding to Israel after this year but will still sell weapons to its close ally.
It was a blatant attempt to influence U.S. voters heading to the polls, though he cast the move as partly meant to take away a “bad talking point” he said left-wing Democrats had used against Republicans over support for military assistance to Israel.
Trump did not provide details or explain how the funding would be halted at the end of the year, given that the Memorandum of Understanding that provides $3.8 billion in U.S. military aid to Israel each year does not expire until September 2028.
But he seemed to acknowledge that aid for Israel, no longer the solid source of bipartisan consensus it had been for decades, had become a political liability for him among some voters. Analysts suggested his declaration was timed as an Election Day ploy.
Discussions have been under way on how Washington’s assistance to Israel would evolve beyond 2028, and Netanyahu had already said he expects U.S. aid to wind down over time.
But not abruptly!
Trump made this announcement during a phone call on Fox News.
Wall Street and the Economy
Today was jobs Friday, the employment picture for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and it was robust…employers added 165,000 jobs last month, well above consensus, and August and September were revised upward by a total of 84,000 positions. The unemployment rate was 4.1%.
October’s employment growth was driven by an increase of 70,000 professional and business-services jobs – well above the average monthly gain of 15,000 over the previous 12 months. So, perhaps AI isn’t sapping white-collar jobs to the degree that is likely to come.
Manufacturing added 19,000, bolstered by gains in computer and electronic product machinery and primary metal manufacturing. All of those sectors are seen as beneficiaries of the AI build-out.
But construction shed 3,000 jobs, including losses in nonresidential construction, an area that includes data centers.
Healthcare was a continued source of employment growth, adding 42,000 jobs.
The major downer is average hourly earnings were up just 3.1% from a year earlier. That likely marked the seventh month in a row earnings growth fell short of inflation (with a reading on October consumer prices coming next week).
Separately, the ISM readings for October were 55.5 for manufacturing, 54.5 for services, 50 the dividing line between growth and contraction, so further strength.
September construction spending fell a greater than expected 1.9%. Factory orders rose 1.8%.
Next week we have the aforementioned CPI, as well as the latest for producer prices (PPI).
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth is 3.4%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 7.18%, down a third consecutive week as Treasury yields have fallen steeply.
Europe and Asia
We received the October PMIs for the euro region, with the composite at 51.7, a 4-month low. Manufacturing came in at 52.7, and non-manufacturing/services 51.4. [S&P Global]
Germany: mfg. 54.2; services 52.5
France: mfg. 49.5; services 46.2
Italy: mfg. 49.4; services 52.0
Spain: mfg. 52.2; services 57.2
Ireland: mfg. 55.2; services 54.3
Netherlands: mfg. 55.0
Greece: mfg. 53.3
UK: 52.8 for both mfg. and non-manufacturing.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global:
“October’s PMI survey data indicate that the eurozone economy is growing at a respectable though unexciting 0.3% rate at the start of the fourth quarter, building on the robust performance seen throughout the third quarter.
“However, there are worrying signs that the recent growth spell could be losing momentum. New business inflows have slowed to near-stagnation after three months of solid sales growth, and business growth expectations have slipped for their lowest since May.
“Businesses are being buffeted by three headwinds stemming from inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.
“Further upward price pressures were reported in October, largely linked to higher energy prices, which are squeezing customers’ budgets and discouraging spending. At the same time, political uncertainty is acting as a secondary drag on spending and investment, with the wider geopolitical issues relating to Ukraine and the Middle East compounded by political unrest in France, where the business situation has worsened most. A third headwind is coming from higher corporate and household borrowing costs, linked to tighter central bank policy and higher market interest rates.
“While the markets have been pricing in a near uncertainty of a further rate hike from the ECB in December, any further slowing of the growth trajectory may sow some doubts as to the need for more tightening as we head into 2027.”
A flash estimate of October inflation in the eurozone rose 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September, according to Eurostat. Ex-food and energy, however, the figure was 2.2%.
September producer prices in the EA21 rose 2.5% compared with August, up 11.1% vs. a year ago…rather steep.
September retail trade was down 0.7%, up 0.4% Y/Y.
Britain: The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, from 3.75% to 4% in a bid to curb inflation mainly driven by the Iran war’s impact on global oil prices.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said the decision “shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes,” but warned “unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem likely to be the last increase.”
Turning to Asia….
China’s PMI data for October was released by the National Bureau of Statistics and it wasn’t good; manufacturing 49.3, services 49.7.
The private RatingDog figures for the month were better; 52.0 on manufacturing, 51.5 for services.
Reminder: The NBS readings are for the large, state-owned enterprises, for the most part, while the RatingDog numbers represent small- and medium-sized businesses.
Japan’s October manufacturing PMI was 53.3, services 51.7.
Taiwan’s October manufacturing PMI was 54.9. South Korea’s 51.3.
Street Bytes
—It was an ugly week in the markets, much of the action election related. The Dow Jones fell -0.9%, the S&P 500 -2.7%, and Nasdaq -3.4%…, the fourth straight down week for the index that is full of AI-related and other tech stocks.
Democrats upended longtime Republican control of the governorships in Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada and Iowa, many of which are data center hotspots.
About 40% of pending data center capacity in the U.S. is planned to be built in states where newly elected governors have promised to stop or pause such construction, according to data from Cleanview, a market intelligence company.
Thursday’s market rout came amid worries that data center construction is driving much of the U.S. economy’s growth, and any slowdown could have a broader chill.
Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa vowed on her first day in office to declare a moratorium on data centers.
“What has happened is data centers have moved into mostly rural communities, and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans and Texans are being taken advantage of,” Hinojosa told CNN. “So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans, and we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections.”
Hinojosa also said that Texans can still “have a strong working relationship with Elon Musk and his companies, but it has to be on our terms. It cannot be just running over the people of Texas. And that’s what changes now that I will be governor.”
A day earlier after Hinojosa won the election, Musk posted on X that “data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now.”
Musk, who moved to Texas in 2020 after celebrating the state’s laissez-faire approach to regulation, is not behind all the data centers in the state. But the xAI CEO is a huge proponent of the sites and his support for them was tied to the massive amounts of money he spent trying to ensure Republicans remained in office.
–The following is comical…Market analysis from the self-proclaimed ‘smartest person in the room,’ Donald Trump.
Trump on Truth Social, Nov. 4, 12:27 PM, as the Dow Jones was soaring, finishing up 1,570 points:
“Stock Market just hit another Record High* – 91 Days in just a short period of time – Less than two years. Your 401(K)s are through the roof. Record Setting All!”
*Ed. We were not at record highs.
Understand, he wrote this the day after he was totally repudiated at the voting booth.
Trump on Truth Social, Nov. 5, 6:18 PM, after the worst drubbing since ‘Liberation Day,’ April 2025:
“The Stock Market suffered one of the Worst Days in History based on the results of the Election. Such a sad thing to watch! It took so much work to get us to a level that no one has ever seen before, and then this. Your 401(k)s have, therefore, dropped. Remember, it wasn’t Republicans, it was Dumocrats. Do not fear, however, we will soon, one way or the other, be BIGGER AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Trump, Nov. 5, 7:02 PM:
“The Stock Market crashed today because the Dumocrats had a big Tuesday – So sad to see, you only have yourselves to blame!”
It’s your fault, you stupid Americans!
Trump, Nov. 5, 7:14 PM:
“I JUST WASN’T ON THE BALLOT. IF I WERE, WE WOULD HAVE WON IN A LANDSLIDE!”
Note to Walter Reed…time for another cognitive test.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.25% 2-yr. 4.51% 10-yr. 4.85% 30-yr. 5.26%
Bonds rallied some on the flight-to-safety. We’ll learn more next week with the inflation data as to what the market believes the Fed will do in December.
–A few weeks back, the National Retail Federation pegged holiday retail sales (November and December) at 4.2% over 2025. This week, according to research by Visa, sales will rise 4.5% over the period.
—Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant, reported adjusted net income of $31.2 billion between July and September, up 9 percent from a year ago.
Aramco credited its performance to the resilience of operations during disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war in Iran, as well as swift recovery work after a series of drone and missile attacks by Iran-backed militants.
The company said the average price of its crude oil was $95 a barrel, 35 percent more than a year ago.
—Apple reported its fourth quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, beating expectations on the top and bottom lines on strong iPhone sales.
This was Apple’s first earnings call with new CEO John Ternus, who took over the role from Tim Cook on Sept. 1.
For the quarter, Apple reported earnings per share of $2.10 on revenue of $114.48 billion. Wall Street was looking for EPS of $2 on revenue of $113.46 billion.
Greater China revenue fell short of projections, coming in at $17.54 billion versus estimates of $18.75bn. Apple’s iPhone sales came in at $57.58 billion vs. an estimate of $56.48 billion.
Services, the company’s second-largest segment, saw revenue of $31.57bn compared to a projected $31.58bn. Apple’s Mac business brought in $10.79 billion, with the Street at $9.69bn.
Wearables and iPad generated $8.3 billion and $6.23 billion.
So that’s the background. The Apple growth and profit machine is wavering, and the boost from price increases might not be enough to keep it going at historic rates. That dials up the pressure on John Ternus, who failed to impress on the earnings call.
The company saved the bad news for the call, an hour after it posted its results, projecting that for the current quarter its high-margin services business will continue to slow and that its widely watched gross profit margin will continue to fall.
And the shares fell in response, 3.5% through Tues. off of last Friday’s close.
The impact of high memory costs is weighing even more heavily on the company, Ternus and Apple CFO Kevin Parekh said on the call. Apple has stockpiled cheaper components purchased earlier, but those inventories are dwindling.
—Advanced Micro Devices shares rose on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter and forecast a strong finish to the year on the back of enormous demand for its AI chips.
AMD stock rose after hours, Tuesday, after climbing 3.7% in regular trading.
The company reported earnings of $2.09 a share in the third quarter, surpassing analysts’ consensus estimates of $1.95. Revenue jumped 45% from a year ago to $13.4 billion, above the Street’s call for $13.1 billion.
AMD expects revenue to total $17 billion in the fourth quarter, plus or minus $500 million, which is well ahead of analysts’ forecast of $16.3 billion. While CEO Lisa Su stopped short of giving a full 2027 outlook, she said on a conference call Tuesday that the company estimates revenue will grow 80% or more in 2027, with the Street at 77% revenue growth next year.
Data-center sales accounted for about 63% of total revenue in the third quarter.
At the same time, relationships between AMD and its customers have gotten very complex, a similar sort of thing we’ve seen with its competitors Nvidia and Broadcom. In exchange for supply deals, AMD has issued warrants for up to 160 million shares each to OpenAI and Meta. The chip maker agreed to invest 41 billion in Meta’s recent equity sales. It may invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic as part of a supply deal.
—Palantir Technologies got a boost Monday after the data software company reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, headlined by surging growth in business-to-business sales.
The results crystallize Palantir’s transition from a government contractor to a vendor for the much larger and less politically-risky commercial world. The third quarter marked the first time in the company’s history that U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue.
Palantir reported adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share for the third quarter, above analysts’ consensus estimate of 40 cents. Revenue grew 96% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, ahead of the Street’s call for $2.2 billion.
The company’s roots are in defense and U.S. intelligence work, but its software is now finding a home at U.S. companies. U.S. commercial sales grew triple-digits for the fifth quarter in a row, soaring 148% to $984 million in the quarter.
The company expects revenue of $2.65 billion in Q4, ahead of the $2.46bn analysts had anticipated.
Revenue has now accelerated every period since the third quarter of 2023. CEO Alex Karp attributed the rapid growth to demand for what he calls “sovereign AI,” which refers to organizations retaining greater control of the AI models they use.
–Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic’s blockbuster initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after the deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of AI-related bets, according to the Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter.
Anthropic is looking to stage the IPO the week before Thanksgiving and has been expected to raise up to $100 billion in an offering that could value the company at around $1.5 trillion.
But three major investors say the valuation will need to come down. Even if the market bounces back, one of the investors said it could be a challenge to convince institutional investors who have just been burned in the recent selloff to take a big risk on the AI sector again.
—OpenAI has raised less than half of the $30 billion it had initially targeted for its latest funding round, with market jitters over the AI trade dampening investor appetite for one of the industry’s biggest names.
After receiving tepid interest from some large investors, OpenAI has so far secured roughly $11 billion in commitments for the new financing, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal values the company at $1.25 trillion – less than the $1.4 trillion valuation that it had earlier hoped to achieve.
OpenAI was preparing to go public as soon as early next year, and amid a brutal tech selloff tied to disappointing earnings results from giants, including Google, Amazon and Intel.
—President Trump stopped short of fully backing Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang, an influential adviser on technology, after a report that U.S. intelligence officials suspected he had been target of a Chinese spy plot.
Asked Saturday whether he still had confidence in Huang as an adviser on U.S. technology policy, Trump said: “I would like to say yes. I mean, unless we find out something to the contrary.”
“I’ve always found Jensen Huang to be very aboveboard,” he said. “But you know, you’re dealing in a very complex issue.”
—Airlines across Europe received a series of bomb threats on Thursday morning for the second time this week (dozens in total), forcing many to make unplanned or escorted landings, although none of the threats immediately proved to be genuine.
While no country has attributed blame for the threats, they come at a time when European officials have been blaming both Russia and Iran for what they describe as ‘hybrid attacks’ and acts of sabotage. Moscow and Tehran both deny conducting such a campaign, and there is no evidence as yet pointing to them.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2025
11/5…121 percent of 2025 levels
11/4…105
11/3…79
11/2…91
11/1…125
10/31…74
10/30…93
10/29…121
—On the heels of the Binance hack, and the bloodbath in AI-related stocks last week, from an Editorial / Wall Street Journal:
“(The) crypto crowd has assured us that stablecoins are safe. No need to worry if crypto exchanges promising hefty yields draw deposits from banks, they say. Look ma, no risk. Apparently, there is.
“The possible AI link here is that the technology is making it easier for cyberhackers and thieves to penetrate even systems long thought to be safe. North Korea, the suspected Binance hacker, might have been able to break in without AI. But the Binance hack came amid a spate of other cyberattacks. If it isn’t already, every business in America needs to ramp up its cybersecurity defenses.
“None of this is cause for regulatory panic, but government can do more to alert private actors about threats and how to defend and respond. The era of AI euphoria is ending, in favor of more caution, and that means there will be more market weeks like this one [Ed. last week].”
After replenishing about $5.7 billion of the $6.3 billion crypto stolen, Binance, the world’s largest crypto currency exchange, said Sunday that it had begun allowing users to withdraw money three days after it froze assets in the wake of the cyberattack. Withdrawal initially spiked, as the exchange saw an outflow of $3.64 billion, but then stabilized, Binance said.
The movement was relatively small, Binance said, representing just 2.1 percent of the $171 billion in assets that it manages.
Experts later said the hackers got into an employee laptop through a fake job posting.
—Marriott International shares rose after the hotel operator raised its full-year global revenue per available room (RevPAR) forecast, citing strong U.S. demand that offset the drag from the Middle East conflict.
CEO Anthony Capuano said the conflict in the Middle East continued to affect results in that region, but trend “improved meaningfully from the second quarter.”
Franchise and base management fees rose 13% to $1.34 billion, driven primarily by higher co-branded credit card fees, higher RevPAR and rooms growth.
—Paraguay’s President Santiago Pena resigned Thursday, days after the collapse of Paraguay’s central bank seized Ueno Bank. Pena said he was stepping down to preserve the country’s stability and democratic institutions amid growing unrest.
But the nation was looking for answers, specifically, how a bank linked to the president, who until last year had a stake in Ueno’s holding company, could grow so rapidly in size and importance despite repeated warnings about its dubious lending practices. [The central bank was doing its job, I hasten to add.]
Paraguay’s steady economic management and rapid growth made it a darling of international investors in recent years.
But soon after winning its banking license in 2023, Ueno was everywhere. The digital lender, a rebranded version of a decades-old finance company, which lured customers with generous cash-back offers on groceries, grew to more than 70 locations, sponsored Paraguay’s national soccer team and plastered its name on the country’s main stadium.
Ueno claimed more than 60% of Paraguay’s adults as customers. They are now left scrambling to recoup their savings, government pensions, and, for 7,000 employees impacted by the bank’s closure, unpaid wages.
Folks, I’ve been to Paraguay. Granted, it was like 22 years ago and the place has modernized some since. But I got a sense of the people, especially at the golf course Carlos Franco grew up on, and this is a true national catastrophe.
–Going back to last Friday, Restaurant Brands released its earnings report and I was interested to see the same-store sales of component Burger King, my favorite these days. They reported growth of 8.4%, as it continues with its multiyear turnaround, with a focus on improving its food and restaurants.
BK has now had four years of industry outperformance. And since the chain relaunched its chicken nuggets on Sept. 1, with 100% white meat chicken, sales have shot up more than 35%, Restaurant Brands CEO Josh Kobza said on the earnings call. More core menu items will get an upgrade next year.
Popeyes was the laggard of Restaurant Brands’ portfolio. The fried chicken chain’s U.S. same-store sales fell 2.2%.
Tuesday, Yum Brands then reported a wider-than-expected fall in quarterly same-store sales at its Taco Bell business, after a multistate cyclosporiasis outbreak in the U.S. during the quarter made customers wary of dining out at the Tex-Mex chain.
Third-quarter sales at Taco Bell fell 4% (though are recovering nicely since the end of the quarter). Same-store sales at KFC, the biggest Yum unit, rose 1%, lower than expectations.
—McDonald’s then reported earnings Wednesday and its shares surged 6%, despite mounting pressures on the fast-food industry. For one day, however, investors seem to believe in the company’s new growth strategy to rekindle momentum – though the stock was already rising on the initiative, called NEXT, which is about helping out the franchisees…redesign restaurants and deploy AI, among other moves, which seems underwhelming to me. Not sure what Wall Street is seeing.
Global same-store sales grew 1.5% in the third quarter, but that was offset by a 0.2% dip in U.S. comparable sales during the same period, which management attributed to a decline in foot traffic. In the same quarter last year, that figure rose 2.4%.
Third-quarter revenue also disappointed – totaling $7.16 billion, below the Street’s call for $7.28 billion. Adjusted earnings of $3.57 a share did top consensus of $3.38.
–Speaking of food, European supermarkets are an ongoing victim of hackers. It was early Monday when freezers in the stores began to go haywire.
One store in Germany found that temperatures in its fridges climbed to above 120 degrees Fahrenheit, forcing it to throw out a dumpster’s worth of yogurt, mozzarella balls and other dairy products. In Sweden, a store owner complained of “terrorism” to a TV interviewer as his workers wheeled out shopping carts full of unsalable frozen seafood and vegetables. IKEA said a cyber incident hit refrigerators and freezers at a store in Belgium, impacting its popular food market and restaurant.
The wave of cyberattacks affected at least a half-dozen more countries in Europe, an illustration of how even mundane physical infrastructure is susceptible to hacking.
The hackers – whose identities and motives remain unknown – had found a way to take control of internet-based computers that supermarket chains and refrigeration firms used to oversee the systems, cybersecurity researchers said. In some cases, hackers appeared to target systems with outdated software.
It’s a tangible reminder of the rapidly evolving threat of cyberattacks in the era of artificial intelligence and internet-connected devices. With everything from smart TVs to robot lawn mowers plugged into the internet, hackers have a vast new menu of targets to choose from.
—Molson Coors cut its full-year guidance as it expects the economic environment to continue weighing on beer demand in the current quarter.
The beer company said Thursday it now expects sales to decline 1% to 2% on a constant currency basis this year, compared with its prior outlook for somewhere between down 1% to up 1%.
The company expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to decline by 16% to 19%, compared with its prior outlook for a decline in the range of 11% to 15%.
Revenue in the quarter fell 1.6% to $2.93 billion, while sales fell 1.2% in the Americas, as lower volume in the U.S. as well as softness across the industry in Canada more than offset a boost from higher prices.
—Donald Trump’s “failing New York Times” continues to do the opposite, the company reporting quarterly revenue that rose 9.7% year over year to $768.5 million, compared with analyst estimates of $767.2 million, and third-quarter profit of $97.4 million, or adjusted earnings of 68 cents per share, compared with consensus of 64 cents.
The company added digital subscribers at a faster clip, up 15%, while digital advertising revenue gained 12%.
The Times’ added about 420,000 net digital-only subscribers sequentially, more than it added in the previous two quarters.
The company ended the quarter with about 13.8 million total subscribers.
–One of the pilots of a private jet that plummeted to the ground on Sunday afternoon in Florida, killing all nine people on board, was a 20-year-old aviator, whose voice is heard on the chilling final communications with air traffic control. Nathalia Filgueiras earned her pilot’s license at 17, according to her mother. She had tons of experience.
Weather was clearly an issue.
—Roughly 31.2 million people watched election returns on television Tuesday night, according to Nielsen, and NBC was the big winner, which offered affiliates a staggering 13 consecutive hours of coverage of the dozens of House and Senate races unfolding across the country. NBC led all the major cable and broadcast networks with 6.7 million viewers – a total that did not include a significant online audience for a livestream of data nerd, Steve Kornacki, which apparently burnt up the internet with praise for this unique figure. I mean who doesn’t love his enthusiasm and his expertise.
Fox News had the biggest audience of the three cable news networks (Nielsen measuring from 8:00 PM to 11 PM Eastern time slot as a benchmark), 4.3 million viewers. CNN was next at 4.1 million, MS Now 3.7 million.
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Going back to last Friday, in Atlanta, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted his fellow G20 foreign ministers and urged them to work together for greater geopolitical stability and economic prosperity, warning that a series of crises posed serious threats to the global economic order.
But he stupidly invited Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and that roiled the gathering, aggravating deep rifts over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband addressed Lavrov directly during the meeting, telling him: “Only yesterday your drones attacked and killed 15 people. And there are countless examples like this of you killing innocent civilians throughout this war. We all know you are the aggressor.”
Lavrov later told reporters that Moscow’s position on the Ukraine conflict was unchanged, and Russia could not accept Ukraine as a “military threat to the lawful security interests of the Russian Federation,” according to Russian news agencies.
An official G20 photo didn’t happen after European officials refused to be photographed with Lavrov.
Washington did announce a multibillion-dollar sale of Patriot interceptors late Friday, offering some good news to Kyiv. [The problem is Ukraine won’t receive the interceptors for a while.]
At the meeting, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called for a rapid ceasefire in the Black Sea that would allow safe passage for grain shipments from both Ukraine and Russia and said Moscow must end its war against Ukraine before being allowed to resume energy sales to Europe.
Poland isn’t formally a member of the G20 and was there on Rubio’s invite, and Lavrov told reporters Poland’s attendance was counterproductive. [Russia is a member.]
Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. officials are to hold three-way peace talks in Abu Dhabi from Nov. 10-11, the Kremlin confirmed.
Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to President Putin, will serve as Moscow’s chief negotiator.
—Last Friday, Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, ending a two-week pause in refinery attacks that came amid heavy pressure from the Trump administration to halt such operations.
The Ukrainian military’s decision to end its self-imposed restraint came against a background of intensifying Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
Russia is systematically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a bid to destroy cities’ heating and electricity supply this winter.
I hope with the results of the U.S. election, Ukraine feels unleashed.
Sunday, Russian strikes left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without power, President Zelensky said, while Russian authorities reported major damage to an industrial site following Ukrainian drone attacks on Nizhny Novgorod region.
“The intensity of the strikes is very high, and the Russians are seeking to maximally exploit the deficit of ballistic missile interceptors,” President Zelensky said on Telegram.
Meanwhile, Zelensky said Ukraine had hit the Kamensky plant in Russia’s Rostov region, which he said was involved in the manufacture of Russian missiles.
In the Nizhny Novgorod attack by Ukraine, the governor of the region said a large-scale overnight Ukrainian drone attack caused “significant damage” to an industrial facility. He did not identify the site that was hit. The region is home to the NORSI oil refinery, one of Russia’s largest.
Monday, a Russian attack on an aid distribution site killed at least 42 people, with another 39 people missing in the rubble as of Wednesday, one of the worst attacks on civilians in years.
At least nine aerial bombs hit the village of Komyshuvakha in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, the regional head Mykhailo Semikin said.
President Zelensky said that after the first strike on the local school “used for humanitarian needs,” there was a second attack on the place where people were sheltering, a double-tap strike. Two rescue crew members and four police officers were among the victims.
Zelensky said, “This is yet another proof that Russia does not want any de-escalation. With such killings, Russia is sending the exact opposite signal – Russia is counting on further killings.”
—Ukraine’s airstrikes have knocked 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries out of operation – causing more than $23.3 billion in economic damage, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) agency said Thursday.
Just 12 refineries are running at reduced capacity following the precision strikes, which wiped out nearly all of Moscow’s oil sector income from 2025, the HUR estimated.
The agency specifically cited five facilities that were hit as of September, including the massive Ryazan Oil Refining Company, with those refineries accounting for 33% of Russia’s total volumes.
President Zelensky has reiterated he would be open to stopping the repeated strikes on Russian oil refineries if the Kremlin halts its attacks on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure.
Moscow has refused to comply. Zelensky said, “Every power plant in Ukraine has been damaged in one way or another by Russian attacks.”
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused new power outages overnight Thursday into Friday morning in seven Ukrainian regions, the Energy Ministry said.
“The situation remains most difficult in the capital region,” Deputy Minister Artem Nekrasov said, adding that utility workers were still having to impose network restrictions because of heavy damage.
—Russia’s intensified air campaign is slowly strangling Ukraine’s economy, targeting industrial and energy plants and the logistics networks, railways and export routes that keep it afloat. The near-daily strikes with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones disrupt production and drive-up transport costs.
As a result, Ukraine’s government faces a deepening cash crunch as the air war chokes its revenue from steel, agriculture and other key sources. The damage ripples across interconnected sectors just as Kyiv faces uncertainty over future U.S. support.
Ukraine spends some 40% of its gross domestic product on defense – far beyond what it can cover alone. Raising taxes only would bring in a fraction of what is needed.
One steel operator, forced to shutdown because of endless Russian strikes on his plant said, “This is the worst situation since the Second World War,” noting that steel once accounted for about 6% of Ukraine’s GDP. And right now, it’s “zero.”
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports, used for shipping its agriculture products, has sharply reduced traffic in the Black Sea and rivers like the Danube, just as farmers need cash to prepare for the next planting season.
Ukraine faces a funding gap of just under $25 billion for 2026. U.S. aid has dried up since Trump came back into office, after Washington provided $50 billion in purely budget support under President Biden from 2022 to 2024, while Europe has become Ukraine’s largest source of overall support, helping fund teachers and doctors’ salaries and pensions.
But if Ukraine doesn’t find a way to cover the deficit next year, “it will mean that we will not be able to pay teachers and doctors’ salaries and maintain hospitals,” one Ukrainian official said.
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Trump’s determination to appease Mr. Putin is starting to look less about finding a durable if imperfect peace in Ukraine and more about the Trump Administration wanting a reordered world and an entente with Russia at any cost. Mr. Trump is doing this as the reality on the battlefield in Ukraine is that Russia is losing the initiative and even some territory while enduring monthly casualties in the tens of thousands.
“Yet the Administration is offering Mr. Putin lifelines that will help him prolong his bloodbath in Ukraine. Mr. Trump has tried to placate Mr. Putin for two years, and he appears no closer to ending the war than he was on Inauguration Day.”
—Evacuees from Russian-occupied Oleshky crossed into Ukrainian-held territory Saturday in a major rescue operation carried out under the most significant truce since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 4 ½ years ago.
The ceasefire, which commenced a week ago Tuesday ended Sunday evening.
And during it, there was no letup in the attacks elsewhere.
China/Taiwan: China’s Coast Guard is harassing shipping with its latest patrol off Taiwan’s east coast and trying to exert a fictional jurisdiction, the Taiwanese Coast Guard said, adding it had sent its own ships to keep watch.
Officials in Taipei say they believe China is practicing for a potential maritime blockade using overlapping military, paramilitary and civilian assets.
Taiwan regards the area off its east coast as critical to wartime supply routes from allies in the event of a blockade or conflict. China recognizes no claims of sovereignty by Taiwan.
North Korea: State media KCNA reported on Sunday that the country’s defense science research institutes tested a major weapons system. The test was intended to “assess adaptation to combat and power of cluster-bomb warhead to be tipped on tactical ballistic missiles,” KCNA said.
Analysts said the tests could be part of efforts to modernize the military. North Korea gained experience in modern warfare, sending troops to the war in Ukraine for its ally Moscow.
Wednesday, North Korea fired multiple missiles toward the sea off its east coast, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said, marking Pyongyang’s fourth such weapons launch in a month. One of the missiles flew 900 km (559 miles). Others were hypersonic missiles.
Seoul’s announcement came hours after Kim Yo Jong, the sister of leader Kim Jong Un, ruled out dialogue with Washington until the U.S. abandoned what she called its hostile policy.
She also repeated Pyongyang’s denial that it was behind the hacking at crypto exchange Binance after the FBI accused North Korea of carrying out the heist.
North Korea’s frequent missile tests this year suggest Pyongyang may be nearing completion of preparations for mass production, potentially including weapons for export to Russia, said Lee Choon-geun, an expert at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology.
“Before mass production and deployment, you typically need many tests,” Lee said.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 42% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 57% disapprove (Nov. 6)
—Election bits, prior to the vote….
Alaska’s Republican-run state government on Saturday urged a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed at President Trump’s direction to stop the certification of a possible Democratic win in that state’s pivotal Senate race, writing that there is “no reason for this Court to entertain this meritless lawsuit any longer.”
Alaska’s Republican governor, Mike Dunleavy, had announced a state probe into the whole issue, the presence of a second Dan Sullian on the ballot after a New York Times report alleging wrongdoing on the part of the state Democratic Party.
The Alaska Supreme Court had ruled this summer that the second candidate fulfilled all legal requirements to stay on. The state government’s filing on Saturday says that the new revelations about the role of challenger Mary Peltola’s campaign don’t change the fact that he’s legally on the ballot.
“Not every wrong can be righted in federal court,” the state wrote.
A federal judge in Alaska then dismissed the administration’s lawsuit pre-emptively challenging the results of the Senate race.
In California, a federal appeals court panel denied a request to order California officials to set aside about 20,000 mail-in ballots that the administration claimed had been sent to possible noncitizens.
The U.S. Supreme Court then ruled it won’t force California to segregate the ballots cast by the 20,000.
Monday, the court declined the Justice Department’s emergency request – filed on the eve of the election – to prevent those ballots from being counted.
The order was unsigned and gave no reasoning. No public dissents were noted.
The ruling appeared to be an extraordinary rebuke of the Trump administration, sending a message that the court was not interested in stepping in to assist the president’s efforts to interfere with how states are administering elections.
It was a highly unusual ruling because it came only hours after the administration filed its emergency request and without the court even calling for a response or briefing from the opposing parties.
The Michigan senate race was shaken to its core on Sunday when Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s former opponent in the U.S. Senate primary, Haley Stevens, stunned party officials by endorsing Republican Mike Rogers after Democratic tensions boiled over days before the election.
“Our Democratic nominee for Senate said I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away,” Stevens said in a video announcing the endorsement. “And he’s right. And that’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today.”
President Trump had repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he’s on the ballot this Election Day.
Lastly, the AP Voter Poll, which was released about an hour before polls in the first states closed, found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today. Most appear to blame the Trump administration for high costs. About 6 in 10 say higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
Additionally, about 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency.
About 4 in 10 said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while 3 in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006. The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
The Democrats sought to capitalize on the opportunity.
—
And then the votes began rolling in, knowing that more than 59 million had already been cast through mail-in and early voting.
And it was a titanic landslide for the Democrats, reclaiming control of both the House and Senate.
“Now against all odds, we Democrats have won the Senate and we have five words for the American people: Relief is on the way,” Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, who is expected to be the majority leader, told reporters outside Senate Democrats’ campaign headquarters in Washington, S.C.
“There is now a generational remake of the Senate map that is going to change America now and on into the future,” Schumer said. “Americans voted for change, and now Democrats must deliver.”
The election results represented a voter response to high inflation, inflated fuel prices, the Iran war launched by Trump and his trade fights with allies.
“We are going to end the war,” Schumer said at a press conference. “We have some Republicans already who have joined us in ending the war, and the Founding Fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways of deterring a president who does war without the consent of the American people,” he continued.
Republicans lost Senate seats in Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, giving Democrats a comfortable Senate majority. With the exception of North Carolina, Trump won all of those states by double digits in the 2024 election. Democrats had needed a net gain of four seats to reclaim a majority.
Democrats flipped more than two dozen House seats held by Republicans in numerous states, including North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey and Virginia. In Florida, Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Kathy Castor won re-election despite GOP redistricting efforts in the state that aimed to oust the Democrats.
“This is not a blue moment. Or a red moment. It’s a red, white and blue moment because American has won tonight,” said House Minority Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y), who was expected to become the nation’s first Black speaker of the House.
“MAGA extremists are on the run from sea to shining sea,” he said.
In key Senate races…rounding off….
S.C. – Democrat Annie Andrews 51%…Republican Darline Graham 47%.
N.C. – Dem. Roy Cooper 59%…Rep. Michael Whatley 39%
Maine – Dem. Troy Jackson 54%…Rep. Susan Collins 46%
Ohio – Dem. Sherrod Brown 50%…Rep. Jon Husted 45%
Kansas – Dem. Adam Hamilton 51%…Rep. Roger Marshall 46%
Iowa – Dem. Josh Turek 51%…Rep. Ashley Hinson 46%
Texas – Dem. James Tallarico 55%…Rep. Ken Paxton 43%
Some firsts…
Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta, will be the next governor of Georgia, the first Black woman elected governor of a state in U.S. history.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R, Fla.) became the first Black person elected governor of Florida. He is also the first Black Republican elected governor of a U.S. state.
Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (D) is the first Native American woman elected governor of U.S. state.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Fleming (D) is the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate.
Rep. Chris Pappas (D, NH), became the first openly gay man elected to the Senate.
Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa unseated three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and became the state’s first Latina governor.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) became the first Black governor elected in Wisconsin.
Democrat Annie Andrews became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate in South Carolina.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated former 7-term Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, 53% to 45%, to become the first Muslim U.S. senator.
And….
Democrat Amy Acton is the next governor of Ohio, whipping the sleazy Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, 52% to 44%, after Ramaswamy’s heavily criticized, despicable campaign spot that used Acton’s mother.
My congressman, Republican Tom Kean Jr., got his butt kicked, 57% to 41% by Democrat, and Gov. Mikie Sherrill clone, Rebecca Bennett. I told you that for the first time in my life, I did not vote Republican in my congressional district. Tom Kean was the one who disappeared for 120 days this spring and never told us, his constituents, what was going on. He deserved this beating.
Across the border, New York Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul beat Republic challenger Bruce Blakeman, 60% to 40%. I liked Blakeman. I was surprised by the margin.
—In a key ballot measure, Proposition 40 in California, the Billionaire Wealth Tax, voters said No (55%), Yes (45%), with 62% of the vote in.
Meanwhile, Xavier Becerra (D) whipped Republican challenger Steve Hilton 64% to 36%.
And in the Los Angeles mayoral race, progressive Nithya Raman defeated incumbent Karen Bass, 52% to 48%.
Breaking the California vote down, Hispanics voted for Democrats over Republicans by a 76% to 23% margin, 30 points greater than 2024.
And California Blacks voted for Democrats by an 89% to 10% margin, up 13 points over 2024.
—Donald Trump on Truth Social, Tues. 11:52 PM:
“Why does FoxNews have Bill de Blasio, the Worst Mayor in the History of New York City, on air, ranting and raving like a Lunatic? He left the City in disgrace, and the damage he caused was incalculable – It has never been the same, and now he’s telling us how to run America. FoxNews bears responsibility for these losses by constantly and consistently putting on the Dumocrat opposition, and worse. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”
Trump at 11:38 PM:
“I’m going to become a Political Pundit, both good and bad, on the reasons these Candidates won and lost!”
Trump at 11:35 PM
“If Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, hadn’t become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn’t have lost. He went back to his original formula, and it wasn’t pretty!”
Trump at 10:37 PM:
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
The White House blamed “candidate quality.” An official told the New York Post: “The White House mood is defiant. President Trump was not on the ballot, and it’s proven that Trump voters show up when he is on the ballot.”
“Also, candidate quality matters, and President Trump did a better job promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than the candidates did themselves.”
A top Republican strategist told the Post: “I hope Chuck Schumer calls Bibi Netanyahu and thanks him for his victory. This war was a disaster. People need to be clear-eyed about it.”
“It took some time, almost two years, but we finally have an answer to the question of what happens when you take military and political advice from a mouth breathing buffoon like Mark Levin,” fumed a source close to Trump. “Every piece of data we have says it was the war and gas prices.”
“We got destroyed because of Iran,” added a top Republican strategist. “Iran is what caused gas prices and diesel prices to skyrocket – not tariffs. If Republicans want to rebuild, the first step is ending the war in Iran and embracing an actual America First foreign policy.”
Former Trump Pentagon official John Ullyot told the Post: “Voters elected Trump to drain the swamp and lower their costs, not to watch his former aides cash in and hear non-stop about ballrooms and arches – not to mention an endless war in Iran.”
—Michael Goodwin / New York Post
“To call Tuesday’s results a mere blue wave doesn’t do justice to the force and size of the impact. That was a blue tsunami that delivered a near-total destruction of the Republican power structure.
“Just don’t call it a surprise. Any fair reading of the polls in recent weeks clearly revealed the depths of public unhappiness with President Trump and the GOP Congress.
“Those polls meant it was widely assumed the House would fall, and it collapsed with a thud early in the evening. GOP control of the Senate was also consigned to the dustbin of history.
“It turns out that Fate has a sense of humor. Thinking he would pump up their turnout, Trump told Republican voters to pretend his name was on the ballot. They may or may not have heard him, but Democrats and most independents heard him loud and clear and soundly rejected him.
“Anyone who is surprised that they turned out in such force hasn’t been paying attention. One indication of how the vote would go has been flashing red for months.
“The president’s job approval rating has been stuck at under 40%, with voters across the spectrum unhappy with the impact of the Iran war on energy prices and inflation in general.
“But the president didn’t heed the warnings, and helped bring upon himself political disaster by treating polls and public complaints as so much ‘fake new’ and media noise.
“On that, he was alone.
“In fact, an AP poll last month found that 65% of adults directly blamed Trump and his policies for high prices, while just 17% liked his handling of cost of living issues.
“That proved to be an insurmountable mountain, and the heavy anti-GOP turnout indicated a big majority of voters had seen and heard more than enough of him.
“As such, this was much more than an ordinary vote of no confidence in a party and its leader.
“At its core, Tuesday was a total beatdown of the president, his policies and personality. And it was predictable.”
—Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Republicans emerged from their victory in 2024 with a rare chance to advance the cause of conservative reform and consolidate a new majority coalition. Voters rendered a crushing verdict Tuesday on their missed opportunity by sweeping them from power in the House and Senate.
“Republicans may console themselves that midterm defeats in second presidential terms are common. But this was more than a normal defeat. The loss of Senate seats and governorships in states that had become GOP redoubts will have ramifications for years to come. So will the cascading losses down ballot in state legislatures.
“True to form, President Trump is already blaming everyone else, but he is the main architect of this rout. He’ll say the Senate didn’t break the filibuster or pass his Save America Act. But neither would have saved the GOP this year, even if there had been enough votes to do either. He’ll blame Karl Rove and Texas Sen. John Cornyn for the shocking defeats in the Lone Star State, but failed Senate candidate Ken Paxton was his man – and his choice helped bring down Gov. Greg Abbott too.
“Mr. Trump is directly responsible for at least three Senate defeats: Mr. Paxton when he could have endorsed Mr. Cornyn instead; North Carolina, where he drove Sen. Thom Tillis from running for re-election; and Darline Graham, whom he pressed to run to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham, despite her lack of political experience or policy knowledge.
“Throw in Georgia, where his war on other Republicans divided the party and kept Gov. Brian Kemp from running for Senate. Mr. Trump has not helped Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff win twice, first with his special-election fiasco in 2021.
“More broadly the President’s erratic and self-indulgent second-term governance has alienated much of the coalition he assembled in 2024. He won a second term on the promise to repeat the economic success of his first. But this time he insisted on imposing universal tariffs, often willy-nilly, that have raised prices for many goods and been especially damaging in Iowa, Kansas and the Farm Belt. His senseless trade war with Canada hurt Republicans in Michigan, Maine, even Texas….
“The Iran war added to the cost problem on fuel prices in particular. But the bigger trouble with the war is that Mr. Trump has never explained his strategy or been consistent in his war aims. He changed, sometimes by the day, on whether peace or more war was at hand. Voters have stopped supporting the war because they aren’t sure Mr. Trump knows how to win it.
“Voters also rebelled against Mr. Trump’s seeming preoccupation with his pet personal causes – the ballroom, the arch – and how he and his family have grown richer during his second term. No less than 88% of voters mentioned ‘corruption’ as their top concern in an October Fox News poll, a higher percentage than the 85% who said inflation….
“Republicans tried countless times to refocus his attention, but he always veered into political retribution, or talking about the Reflecting Pool, or something. His only notable proposal for the next two years was a political bribe – $5,000 to every American if Republicans kept the House and Senate. Republicans in turn had nothing of note to say that they wanted to accomplish in the next two years.”
Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Trump was the author of the ruin. He picked the candidates to back, made the decisions on strategy, decided what to say and when to spend the money in his war chest….
“He is fuming and casting blame – it was Fox News’ polls; if he’d been on the ballot it would have been ‘a landslide’; Greg Abbott is ‘a RINO.’ Please. It was you, Fredo….
“A loss this size has many reasons, a river this raging had many sources. It was a pervasive sense of financial insecurity worsened by high prices, which are connected to the war but also driven by tariffs. And it was corruption.
“The American people expect a certain amount of corruption in government because government is composed of people, and men aren’t angels. They’ll accept a normal amount if the government keeps a strong economy and peace. But fail on the economy and peace and they’ll see your corruption and be angered by it. And if you give them corruption that is showy and shameless, they will punish you. They will admit to themselves that you are unusually sleazy and moneygrubbing – Bitcoin! Crypto! Charges of pardons for sale! Federal contracts for the companies of the sons! PLS WIR AMEX 100K SOONEST! – and they will turn on you.
“In this regard most of all, this White House drove the Republican brand into the ground….
“[Referring to the parties at Mar-a-Lago] This administration’s soul is seen in its social life, and it is the opposite of populism – it is more like a low-class, high-tack oligarchy dominated by patricians who feel no obligation to even fake a little class.
“The most clueless 1980s Kennebunkport Republican grandee would never flaunt wealth as these people do in their vulgarity and conceit. In my lifetime the GOP has been many things good and bad, but it had never been decadent.
“In a post-election piece Thursday, Josh Dawsey of the Journal reported that voters in focus groups who didn’t normally monitor Washington often brought up ‘Trump’s pet projects’ – the ballroom, the Reflecting Pool. A political strategist told Mr. Dawsey they’d say things like, ‘He doesn’t really care what I’m going through’ and ‘He wants to put his name on everything.’
“It’s going to take years for the party to dig its way out of this.”
Kimberley A. Strassel / Wall Street Journal
“The Republican mistake was in letting Mr. Trump grow so tall, dictate so much. See the election contrast of Florida, where the GOP maintained some separation and a reputation for good governance and narrowly kept its gubernatorial and Senate seats, vs. Texas which lashed itself to the Trump MAGA model and Ken Paxton and lost everything. It’s principles and policy that win elections, not names.”
—House Speaker Mike Johnson (R, La.) could not have gotten it more wrong, when he said the polls were not accurate and the Republicans would still prevail. Wednesday, he told his staff that he will not run for minority leader after the GOP lost the House, clearing the way for a potentially bitter fight between House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R, La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R, Ohio). It’s the establishment (Scalise) against a more conservative wing of the conference (Jordan).
For the Dems, Hakeem Jeffries announced his candidacy for Speaker of the House. He will become the first black speaker in U.S. history.
In a letter to colleagues, Jeffries writes: “Against all odds, House Democrats were consistently successful in the minority. We must now deliver the dramatic change the American people are demanding in the majority.”
Jeffries adds: “The days of the House functioning like a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Administration are over. Congress will assume its place as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch.”
—Vice President JD Vance, in a lengthy online post, sought to distance himself from election results seen as a referendum on Trump.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote, adding, “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
“But everyone knows why we lost,” he added. “And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
“I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right. You did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.”
Isaac Schorr / New York Post
“On Wednesday morning, Vice President JD Vance lamented one war and lit the match on another.
“In a jaw-dropping statement released on the heels of his party’s historic defeat in the midterms, Vance broke with the administration that bears his name.
“ ‘The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,’ he asserted. ‘The reason we lost is the war.’….
“There’s no disputing that the war in Iran contributed to the GOP’s midterm wipeout, but it was an aggravating factor, not the principal one.
“Across myriad exit polls, voters identified the economy – and the high cost of living, in particular – as well as government corruption, as the most important issues to them.
“NBC News’ exhaustive survey found just 4% identified foreign policy as the most important issue to them this year.
“It also found that 74% considered the war to be a ‘crucial’ or ‘major’ motivator for their decision at the ballot box.
“But that paled in comparison to the 90% of voters who said the same thing about corruption, and the 89% who said the same about the cost of living.
“Two years ago, Trump and Vance rode into Washington alongside Republican majorities in the House and Senate with a mandate to lower – or at the very least slow the steady climb of – prices.
“Instead of pursuing the anti-inflationary policies voters had hired him to, though, Trump saddled consumers with a bevy of erratic and wide-ranging tariffs, raged against the Federal Reserve for keeping interest rates high and looked on approvingly as his family and friends cashed in on his presidency.
“The Democratic attack ads wrote themselves.”
—President Trump on Thursday said he still supported Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but understand, Hegseth has not briefed reporters about the Iran war since May, while details slowly emerged, such as noted above, about the devastation Iran caused U.S. bases in the region – including a key port in Bahrain used for supplying aircraft carriers.
This is a guy with deep disdain for the American people, yet he is being tied to stories that outgoing Tennessee senator, and new governor, Marsha Blackburn, will appoint Hegseth as her successor. However, Blackburn reportedly will not tab him.
–This afternoon, Trump said longtime adviser Stephen Miller would become his chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles, the first victim of the election. To some of us, this is not good.
—It was a week of catastrophic flooding across parts of America, with fatal floods in the Southwest, and severe flooding in parts of Eastern Florida, and then Georgia and Tennessee, where the rate of rain was 3 inches per hour in some spots.
—Pope Leo XIV has embarked on a trip home to the continent where he spent two decades as a missionary priest and learned to be a pastor, visiting Uruguay, Argentina and his second homeland of Peru.
The Nov. 6-17 trip marks the longest and farthest of his papacy, 12 flights in 12 days, just three weeks after Leo underwent surgery to remove a cancerous tumor from his right lung. Doctors gave him the green light to make the trip.
Latin America is still home to around 40% of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, but the Catholic proportion of the region’s population has shrunk in recent years, and the decreases are especially notable in the countries Leo will visit.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini!
God bless America.
—
Gold $4060…Silver $51.95
Oil (WTI) $90.85…Brent $98.20
Regular Gas: $4.06; Diesel: $6.23 [$3.08 – $3.70 yr. ago]
Bitcoin: $75,782 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Returns for the week 11/2-11/6
Dow Jones -0.9% [51285]
S&P 500 -2.7% [7376]
S&P MidCap -1.6%
Russell 2000 -2.0%
Nasdaq -3.4% [24579]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-11/6/26
Dow Jones +6.7%
S&P 500 +7.8%
S&P MidCap +9.0%
Russell 2000 +11.0%
Nasdaq +5.8%
Hang in there.
*Folks, I need your help. Please contribute what you can.
Brian Trumbore