Mon., Nov. 2, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Mon., Nov. 2…regular $4.16…diesel $6.29
Crude oil/Brent collapsed today, more than 8% for both, gasoline and heating oil futures following suit, ditto Treasury yields, as there were reports of intensifying peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, via Qatar acting as mediator.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government has been granted more authority by the country’s supreme leader to pursue peace talks, signaling a potential diplomatic opening as fears grow of renewed conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
“We are striving to resolve the issue through dialogue and, in this regard, the Supreme Leader has also granted certain powers to the government,” the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Pezeshkian as saying on Monday.
The Iranian president did not clarify the extent of the new authority bestowed by Mojtaba Khamenei or whether it signals a broader shift in the Islamic Republic’s red lines in indirect negotiations with the U.S. Investors nonetheless took his remarks as a sign that a fresh round of fighting between Tehran and Washington could be averted.
Regional countries are stepping up diplomatic efforts to prevent a renewal of fighting after months of relative calm.
But major differences remain between the warring sides. Tehran wants a U.S. naval blockade of its ports lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before reopening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping. Washington is demanding concessions related to Iran’s nuclear program.
“Given the sensitivity of the current situation, consultations and deliberations have become highly intensive,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told IRNA during a visit to Turkmenistan.
“We have presented our terms and plan, and everything depends on Washington’s political rationality,” he said. “If they intend deception and military operations, they will face a response harsher and heavier than before.”
There is zero new here. But there are two reasons why the oil market is reacting today the way it is. First, it desperately wants to see this end, seeking good news even if, diplomatically, there really is none.
But second, oil production with the Gulf states is indeed back to prewar levels, and that’s the best reason for oil to slide.
Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait climbed by 10% to 15.53 million barrels a day in October, putting them roughly in line with levels shipped at the start of the year, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and energy-analytics firms. By contrast, Iran’s exports remained at zero for a second month amid a U.S. naval blockade.
Treasuries rallied (yields fell) on their biggest monthly advance in more than two years, as tumbling oil prices eased concern about inflation pressure leading to additional Fed interest-rate hikes.
So, no surprise stocks rallied after last Friday’s bloodbath, but then Nasdaq turned negative around 3:00 PM. The capital/debt concerns remain, as well as the ROIs for the companies heavily involved in the capital-intensive buildout, the hyperscalers. Oracle shares were down sharply today after the company announced it was selling $10 billion in debt along with an equal amount of equity.
Apple earnings are out after the close today, and we have a jobs report on Friday.
But all eyes will be on tomorrow’s midterm elections. How accurate will the pollsters have been? How will President Trump react? It’s likely to be a long night.
Dow Jones +213…+0.4% [51983]
S&P 500 -38…-0.5% [7541]
Nasdaq -272…-1.1% [25164]
Oil (WTI) $95.80…Brent $103.90
Gold $3945
Silver $50.50
Bitcoin: $76,652 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.58%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.89%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.76%
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Brian Trumbore
