Wednesday, April 15, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Apr. 15…reg. $4.10…diesel $5.63
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President Trump indicated he may be preparing to wind down the war, boosting market optimism and restoring some stability to global energy prices by the close on yesterday, Tuesday.
Peace talks with the Islamic Republic might restart “over the next two days,” the New York Post cited the president as saying. In a separate interview with ABC News, Trump said extending a two-week ceasefire that was clinched last week may not be necessary, hinting at significant near-term progress without elaborating.
“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC. “I really do.”
In a Fox Business interview, he said he sees the war as “close to over.”
There are signs Tehran is also trying to avoid escalation, with authorities considering a pause in shipments through the Strait to avoid testing the U.S. blockade and jeopardizing fresh negotiations.
But the shift in narratives from Washington – from announcing a total blockade of Hormuz to expectations of a possible breakthrough – has left many questions unanswered, including the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium. Israel maintains the material must be removed, while Trump said he wasn’t pleased about reports that the U.S. had demanded that Iran agree to a two-decade moratorium on enrichment because it could never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
Trump didn’t commit to whether the U.S. would remain in negotiations to secure a deal with Iran, or to withdrawing military forces without a peace plan.
“It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” he told ABC News. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.” Many beg to differ.
The U.S. Navy has been impeding traffic outside the Strait in the Gulf of Oman and appears to have forced some carriers, including the U.S.-sanction Rich Starry, to make a U-turn back toward the Persian Gulf. An Iraq-bound supertanker was reportedly sailing through the waterway as of Wednesday morning, a transit that would make it the first crude carrier to head west through the conduit since the blockade began.
But there are a lot of conflicting reports on what is getting through.
The U.S. military said the blockade has “completely halted economic trade” to and from Iranian ports by sea, hours after military officials said U.S. warships confronted six merchant vessels departing an Iranian port and forced them all to turn back.
Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of Centcom, said late Tuesday an estimated 90 percent of Iran’s economy is fueled by international sea trade. “In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Cooper said in a post.
To execute the blockade, officials said, American naval assets are not lingering near Iranian ports or in the Strait of Hormuz itself. Iranian forces mined the Strait, one of several flash points in negotiations, soon after hostilities began more than six weeks ago.
“Our net is the Gulf of Oman,” one official said, who explained that the U.S. warships involved wait for an opportune moment – after observing vessels leave Iranian facilities and clear the Strait – before intercepting the merchant ships and forcing them to turn around.
Wednesday morning, President Trump then posted on Truth Social:
“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also – And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? But REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to – far better than anyone else!!! President DJT”
“Permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz”? What? That’s the goal, but hardly the case today.
For today, crude oil was essentially unchanged, amid the ever-changing narratives that nonetheless ignore some basic facts. In Asia, there are serious supply issues for not just oil but basic commodities and essentials for day-to-day life, which will spread soon to Europe…even if the Strait fully reopened tomorrow.
We have no freakin’ idea what any deal between the U.S. and Iran will end up being, especially in terms of the enriched uranium stockpile deep beneath the surface of the earth in at least two locations.
That said, as Adm. Cooper correctly noted, the impact of the blockade on Iran’s economy is immediate and we’ll see how the Iranian people react…and the whole regime apparatus if no one is being paid.
But you all know, Wall Street is a discounting mechanism, preferring to look forward and see through the turmoil to a sunnier time. And it is earnings season, and they are likely to be solid, as the big banks have shown this week.
So what the heck…party on! The S&P 500 hit a new all-time closing high today, ditto Nasdaq!
Lastly, President Trump attacked Chair Powell again today…the Mets lost their seventh straight last night in Los Angeles to the Dodgers, 2-1…and there were all sorts of reports this afternoon that LIV Golf is about to fold! I’ll do a victory lap if this proves to be the case, as I warned of this in my last Bar Chat, April 12. You can look it up.
Dow Jones -72…-0.2% [48463]
S&P 500 +55…+0.8% [7022…all-time closing high!]
Nasdaq +376…+1.6% [24016…record closing high!]
Oil (WTI) $91.00.…Brent $94.75
Gold $4815
Silver $79.45
Bitcoin $75,012 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.76%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.28%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.40%
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
