Thursday, April 16, 2026…4:10 PM ET

[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]

Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.

Fri., Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Apr. 16…reg. $4.09…diesel $5.61

I hope you gassed up today, because the price at your local pump is heading back up after a slight reprieve off the highs of 5-7 cents.

Crude oil surged anew, West Texas Intermediate and Brent up over 4%, WTI to $95, Brent $99, before selling off a bit, and, just as importantly, Gasoline Futures rose over 3% to $3.16.

I follow the gasoline futures market as much as WTI and Brent and if you are just a casual observer, if you see gas futures at, say, $2.90-$3.00, you aren’t going to see a big drop below $4.00 at the pump.

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a U.S.-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed upon and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover the time frame, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

The leaders want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis could easily develop if that doesn’t happen by May.

Gulf states believe Iran is looking to build a nuclear weapon and that hasn’t changed in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli bombardment of the country, the officials are saying.  Thus, a peace deal with Iran must ban it from enriching uranium or having long-range ballistic missiles.

At the same time, Gulf leaders don’t want a return to fighting and want the U.S. pursuing diplomacy.

According to reports today, Washington and Tehran are weighing a two-week extension of the truce, which ends late next Tuesday U.S. time, to allow for more time for negotiations.

But who knows.

And we’re still getting conflicting reports on how many ships are getting through the blockade…some indeed are, even as U.S. Central Command said in a post on X on Wednesday that no vessels got through.

Regardless if it’s zero, five, 9 or 16….it isn’t last year’s 135-a-day average.

And who knows what Israel will really do in Lebanon, even after President Trump today announced a ceasefire between the two nations, Trump posting on Truth Social around noon:

“I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel.  These two leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 p.m. EST… It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let’s, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Trump said he was inviting both leaders to the White House for talks.

But then in comments to reporters prior to his trip to Nevada for a rally, President Trump was all over the place on a second round of talks with Iran, and, regarding Israel and Lebanon, senior Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah told Reuters that the group’s decision to abide by a ceasefire will depend on whether Israel commits to halting all forms of hostilities.

Yesterday, Netanyahu said he had instructed the Israeli military to continue widening its ground invasion into southern Lebanon.

More than 1 million people have been displaced in southern Lebanon.  Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said 600,000 Lebanese residents will be barred from returning to their homes “until the safety and security of northern Israeli residents is ensured.”  Israeli authorities have begun destroying homes in Lebanese villages near Israel’s northern border.

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Following up with yesterday’s comment on the future of LIV Golf, LIV CEO Scott O’Neil told staff in an email that its season will go on “as planned, uninterrupted and at full throttle.”

This could be true but stay tuned.  Certainly a 2027 season seems to be a no-go…so says moi.

The New York Mets’ losing streak hit eight in Los Angeles, Wednesday night, Shohei Ohtani with six strong innings, 10 strikeouts, for the win for the Dodgers.

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Dow Jones +115…+0.2%  [48578]
S&P 500 +18…+0.3%  [7041…record high]
Nasdaq +86…+0.4%  [24102…record high]

Oil (WTI) $93.52.…Brent $98.20
Gold $4817
Silver $78.70
Bitcoin $75,400 [4:00 PM ET]

U.S. 2-yr.  3.77%
U.S. 10-yr.  4.31%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.39%

Check out my Week in Review, posted Friday around 4:30 PM ET.

Brian Trumbore