Tuesday, June 16, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., June 16…regular $4.04…diesel $5.18
‘Regular’ is now down 52 cents from the highs; diesel 50 cents.
Have you listened to President Donald Trump try to explain the Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) from the G-7 summit in the French Alps? Yesterday, with French President Emmanuel Macron sitting alongside, Trump said, “We get along very well with Iran.” Huh?! That’s an idiotic statement.
Today, he told a reporter, “I really think the second stage of the deal will be easier.”
But after the MOU is signed Friday, we have the 60-day window for negotiations, which everyone expects will be extended. This is the stage that is supposed to address the nuclear program.
I’ll get into my opinions on all this in my upcoming “Week in Review,” but just a reminder. Aside from Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the MOU doesn’t address Iran’s ballistic missiles, Lebanon, or Iranian support for its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Americans deserve the truth as it’s known today. It’s appalling the 1 ½-page MOU hasn’t been released. Administration officials said yesterday that Trump would release it before Friday, but Trump then said it would be “after Friday.”
But some details are leaking out, and we learned today that the U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, offering Tehran an early financial incentive to wind down the conflict, the Wall Street Journal and others reported this afternoon.
The provision for waivers of sanctions on oil sales takes effect immediately upon signing the agreement, and also covers necessary services including banking, transportation and insurance needed to facilitate the sales, the Journal said.
United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit, said an Iranian supertanker carrying crude oil had left the port of Chabahar, crossed the U.S. blockade and was sailing out of the Gulf of Oman Tuesday with its location tracker active – marking the first such instance since the beginning of the U.S. blockade in April.
A senior U.S. official said Tuesday that even though Iran would get upfront sanctions relief for oil sales, sustained relief would be tied to Iran’s performance on U.S. demands regarding issues like opening the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program.
To say Israel is extremely upset, and concerned, would be a vast understatement. Israelis are furious.
Well, crude oil futures continued to plummet, and no doubt there will be more oil hitting the market within the next two months (it takes a while for the tankers to reach their destinations).
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves had fallen to a 43-year low. In turn, Iranian output will likely refill Chinese oil stockpiles, which were depleted in the last months as the world’s largest importer refrained from purchasing oil to prop up prices further.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee commenced its two-day meeting today, and tomorrow at 2:30 PM, we hear Kevin Warsh for the first time as Fed chair.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth was revised down today from 3.3% to 2.8%.
China reported that retail sales in May slumped to levels unseen since the pandemic.
The Bank of Japan joined other major global central banks in raising interest rates to head off an expected spike in inflation fueled by higher energy costs from the war.
The BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point to 1 percent – the highest level in 31 years!
But the central bank was citing inflationary pressures from rising energy prices, and now they are falling rapidly.
As I work on this update, at around 3:00 PM, SpaceX shares were at $209 (vs. Friday’s IPO price of $135), for a market capitalization of $2.74 trillion, compared with Amazon’s market cap of $2.65 trillion*.
*At 3:18, SPCX was down to $201, the market cap barely below AMZN’s.
Amazon posted revenue of $717 billion in 2025 to SpaceX’s $18.7 billion.
SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, likely over the summer, should be a huge test for the stock.
Stocks finished mixed today, the Dow Jones hitting another record.
Lastly, I went to Wake Forest and each night before I go to bed, or each morning, I check the A’s box scores to see how the Demon Deacs’ Nick Kurtz did.
The reigning AL Rookie of the Year had a very slow start to his second season, but after a two-homer, 5 RBI night on Monday, Kurtz is leading the majors in RBIs at 57!
For good reason, folks were snapping up his rookie card last year. The ‘Big Amish’*, 23, is already ticketed for Cooperstown.
*He was born and raised in Lancaster, PA, the heart of Pennsylvania Dutch / Amish country. I love shoofly pie.
In another year or so, it will be official…Nick Kurtz will only be behind Arnold Palmer and Tim Duncan as the biggest sports stars to ever attend Wake. [Sorry, Curtis Strange and Lanny Wadkins.]
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Dow Jones +328…+0.6% [51999…record]
S&P 500 -42…-0.6% [7511]
Nasdaq -307…-1.2% [26376]
Oil (WTI) $77.00…Brent $79.75
Gold $4330
Silver $70.10
Bitcoin $65,616 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.05%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.43%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.62%
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
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And we have ZELLE: use Zelle recipient briannovak24@gmail.com
