Wednesday, June 17, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., June 17…regular $4.02…diesel $5.16
‘Regular’ is now down 54 cents from the highs; diesel 52 cents.
Since I posted Tuesday, details emerged from the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war and putting new limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
Bloomberg obtained a copy of the 14-point draft. Among the ‘Articles’:
Article 1 – The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
Article 4 – Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
Article 5 – Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
Article 6 – The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
Article 8 – The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.*
Article 10 – The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of his Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
*A revised copy was released an hour ago and it states that Iran and the U.S. agreed that Iran would be “down-blending [the enriched material] on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A.”
But nothing that requires Iran to give up the nuclear material and ship it out of the country.
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Nor does the agreement state that Iran will destroy its buried enriched uranium stockpiles, and it will provide Tehran with significant economic relief.
And, in effect, Iran is allowed to manage the critical oil chokepoint during the 60-day negotiation period.
And nothing on Iran’s ballistic missile program (which during his press conference this afternoon, President Trump said he wasn’t concerned about), and nothing on Iran’s support of its proxies.
We’ll see what happens the next 60 days…and most likely beyond.
But you can see why Israelis are concerned. They should be.
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This was the entire statement from the Federal Reserve this afternoon after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting.
“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12-0 vote.
“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
In the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP or ‘dot plot’), a significant number of the participants – nine of 19 officials, not all of whom have a vote – projected that at least one rate hike would be warranted by year’s end. There had been none who did so in March. Another eight thought the Fed could hold steady into next year. Only one official projected a cut this year, down from 12 in March.
(The projections included only 18 submissions from the 19 participants. Because every other official has submitted them before, the missing one was Warsh’s, which he noted in the presser after).
Chair Warsh was then very hawkish in the press conference, and the most inflation (Fed) sensitive 2-year Treasury saw its yield rise to a cycle high of 4.21%…up a whopping 16 basis points from yesterday’s close.
Stocks fell hard on the chair’s remarks. Crude oil stabilized.
The Atlanta Fed revised its GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth up to 3.0%.
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The U.S. Open begins tomorrow at Shinnecock on Long Island. If the wind is up, it can truly be a brutal experience for some of the world’s best.
In the previous five Opens at Shinnecock, only three golfers out of the 654 who teed it up finished under par.
Raymond Floyd in 1986. And Retief Goosen in 2004, who won it at 4-under, two strokes better than the third, Phil Mickelson.
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Dow Jones -507…-1.0% [51493]
S&P 500 -91…-1.2% [7420]
Nasdaq -354…-1.3% [26021]
Oil (WTI) $76.05…Brent $78.90
Gold $4240
Silver $67.25
Bitcoin $64,234 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.21%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.49%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.58%
Back Thurs.
Brian Trumbore
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