Wed., Aug. 12, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Aug. 12…regular $4.03…diesel $5.35
Diesel is up six cents in two days. Yesterday, Smithfield Foods talked about the inflationary impact of freight and transportation costs and you’re talking the high cost of diesel. Everything you get in your supermarket and drug store was likely delivered by a truck running on diesel. It’s kind of simple.
As was today’s consumer price report. The CPI for July came in exactly as expected, across the board, with the index up 0.1% and 3.4% year-over-year on headline; 0.2% and 2.5% on core, ex-food and energy.
The CPI is the data that grabs the headlines and is featured on all the Nightly News broadcasts and is highlighted in your newspapers and local television news, while politicians cherry-pick it to suit their purposes.
But it’s not that important in the minds of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the rate-setting organ of the Federal Reserve, chaired by Kevin Warsh, who reiterated at his last press conference following the FOMC gathering a few weeks ago that the Fed’s chief inflation barometer is core PCE (personal consumption expenditures index).
And a prime component of the PCE is tomorrow’s producer prices report for July.
So, yes, CPI gets the headlines, and that’s OK, it is certainly representative of reality, but it’s not what the Fed relies on.
That said, there were some interesting components of the CPI, like gasoline (all types) is up 24.6% year-over-year, but was down 2.9% in July. That won’t be the case in August.
Food at home is up 2.7% year-over-year, which is inflation. Airline fares are up 25.5% Y/Y, but were down 3.9% in the month.
Uncooked ground beef is still up 9.0% over the past year. Chicken is down 2.7%. Fresh fish and seafood are up 7.8%. [My brother and his family returned from their annual trip to Cape Cod and lobster rolls are averaging $35-$40 up there.]
Milk up 5.1%, Apples up 11.1%, Tomatoes 12.8%. Roasted coffee 9.4%. Eggs down 25.7%.
But Lettuce fell 15.1% in July. Gee, I wonder why that was? …. ‘Can I use your restroom? It’s kind of an emergency…’
As for the Iran War, President Trump posted on Truth Social this morning, 10:31 AM:
“The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, ‘A WALL OF STEEL,’ and there is nothing Iran can do about it. They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their ‘Leadership’ is uncertain, at best! They have No Money – Their country is ‘shot.’ All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse! Iran is all talk and no action* [Ed. asterisk mine], the Bully of the Middle East No Longer. Praise be to Allah!”
*Iran has caused $43 billion in damages to U.S. bases, disabled 45 U.S. military aircraft, and 18 American soldiers have been killed. And this is just for starters.
At least six people were killed on Tuesday when a cargo ship was hit in the Red Sea by missiles fired by the Houthis, Yemen’s government said, an escalation in the chaos that has engulfed shipping in the Middle East.
The Yemeni Transport Ministry said in a statement that the vessel Tihamah was carrying food supplies and was hit while transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The ministry added that four crew members were killed when a fire broke out on board.
Later, the Yemeni Coast Guard said that two members of Yemen’s armed forces were also killed during a rescue mission, when another Houthi missile targeted the vessel.
The Houthis alleged the vessel was carrying “Saudi military equipment.”
And while there are persistent reports Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement, Mohsen Rezaee, the newly appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said any agreement with Oman on control over the Strait would remain separate from its closure, however, according to state media. What conditions Iran may seek to impose on traffic through the waterway remains unclear, though we know they want sanctions relief and for the U.S. Navy to leave the region.
Crude oil hovered around the $83 level on WTI today, Brent around $89, with gasoline futures at $3.15 at 2:00 PM ET.
The Energy Information Administration announced today in its weekly report that U.S. crude inventories increased by 17.4 million barrels last week, marking their biggest weekly rise since early 2023.
Stocks generally liked the tame CPI report and AI cloud provider CoreWeave’s strong earnings report helped as well, but the Dow Jones turned negative late, while bond yields were little changed from yesterday’s close.
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I did not know when I posted my music link yesterday that a full photo would crop up, which hadn’t been the case Monday, so sorry about that. Perhaps the same thing will happen today.
I just find it fascinating that the Beatles’ “No Reply,” which to me has a quintessential Beatles sound (certainly John Lennon), never charted (meaning top 100 on the Billboard Pop Charts), and didn’t in the UK as well. In fact, in the UK, it wasn’t even released as a single. But in the Netherlands, it was a single and hit No. 1.
“No Reply” was the first song on the group’s fourth studio album, “Beatles For Sale,” which featured “Eight Days A Week,” “I’m A Loser,” “Baby’s In Black,” and “I’ll Follow The Sun.”
“No Reply” has certainly received its share of airtime on oldies stations I listen to and that’s why I just had to feature it today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgFo9STa70E
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Dow Jones -21…-0.04% [53770]
S&P 500 +20…+0.3% [7748]
Nasdaq +143…+0.5% [26588]
Oil (WTI) $83.05…Brent $88.65
Gold $4410
Silver $65.30
Bitcoin $63,356 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.19%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.68%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.83%…30-year high amid growing talk of rate hike from BOJ in Sept.
Back Thurs.
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