Thurs., Aug. 13, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Aug. 13…regular $4.07…diesel $5.40
Crude oil futures fell today, but gasoline futures were essentially unchanged (until late in the day when they fell a bit). Diesel is now up 11 cents in just three days, ‘regular’ 7 cents.
But the oil price is not rising, at least this week, because there are other dynamics at work, including the fact that the Gulf oil-producing states are scrambling, and committing $billions, to finding alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. That doesn’t impact the oil supply right away…in some cases, given the difficulty of the project, maybe not for years…but global oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year and persistently high prices are weighing on consumption, the International Energy Agency said yesterday.
The energy watchdog – a group of Western nations and their allies – now expects global oil consumption to fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with demand forecast to fall by 2.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter following a 4.9 million barrel-a-day drop in the second quarter, before returning to growth in the final three months of the year.
For now, the market isn’t that concerned about the stalemate over the Strait, and the fact few ships are actually getting through.
The Trump administration seems content to keep its naval blockade in place to put suffocating economic pressure on the regime.
But as we all know by now, that can change in a flash.
One more…the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly increase since early 2023 (we exported less), but gasoline stocks fell by 1 million barrels, below expectations, leaving inventories 6% below the five-year seasonal average, so that is one reason why gasoline futures are stubbornly holding above $3.00.
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We had the producer price index report for July today, following yesterday’s tame CPI release, and the PPI was unchanged on headline, better than expected, and up 4.7% year-over-year, which was two ticks less than consensus. On core, ex-food and energy, the figures were 0.2% and 4.2%, the latter, the money ball, as expected.
So, with another tame inflation report, bonds rallied, the yield on the 2- and 10-year falling on the growing belief the Fed cannot raise interest rates at its next meeting. However, we still have a PCE report, and another round of CPI/PPI a week before the FOMC gathers Sept. 15-16. Tomorrow, we have a report on July retail sales.
For today, stocks also rallied, the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high.
Yesterday afternoon, the Treasury Dept. released data that revealed a deficit of $432 billion in July, the biggest monthly deficit since March 2021. As in, the country’s spending exceeded its revenue by the highest margin in more than five years. This brings the shortfall for fiscal 2026 (which began Oct. 1) to $1.8 trillion, 10% higher than the prior year.
Tariff refunds are limiting federal revenue. The government paid out $33 billion in refunds in July, taking the total for the year to $115 billion. A sharp decline in corporate income-tax revenue and higher tax refunds to businesses stemming from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, have also hurt the U.S. government’s cash coffers.
Net interest on the Treasury Debt is $931 billion ($104bn in July), with two months to go in the fiscal year, vs. spending on National Defense, $804bn.
Net interest is right behind spending on Social Security and Medicare.
The Congressional Budget Office updated its estimate that the deficit will be $2.1 trillion this fiscal year, $200 billion more than the projection published in February.
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Dow Jones +69…+0.1% [53840]
S&P 500 +50…+0.7% [7799…record]
Nasdaq +214…+0.8% [26803]
Oil (WTI) $81.20…Brent $86.95
Gold $4350
Silver $64.40
Bitcoin $63,346 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.14%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.64%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.85%…BOJ is going to hike rates and when it does, look out, even as it’s well telegraphed….
Check out my “Week in Review,” posted Friday at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
Drop me a line…briannovak24@gmail.com.
