Wed., Sept. 30, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Wed., Sept. 30…regular $4.43…diesel $6.41
There have been scores of reports in recent days talking of Middle East crude oil flows returning toward normal despite continued risks to shipping. Estimates from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs cite the 10-day average of exports has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.
But crude oil rose a little today, ditto gasoline and heating oil futures.
We had the August personal consumption expenditures index report today, PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, and it came in better than forecast…up 0.3% over July, 3.4% year-over-year, and on core, ex-food and energy, 0.2% and 3.0%, the latter the money ball and four-tenths less than consensus.
But some analysts said the way the numbers are calculated has changed some, while much of the data is old and doesn’t reflect the steep rise in diesel, which works its way through the price chain over time, and in the end, bond yields rose a bit on the long end, while odds for a rate hike in October and December fell. [No way is the Fed going to act a week before the election, at least not this particular one.]
As for December’s meeting, yesterday I noted Fed Governor Michael Barr’s hawkish comments, calling him one of the three or four more influential Fed governors.
But another rather influential governor, New York Fed President John Williams, made some comments at the end of the day that carried some weight. After all, Williams is vice chair of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, and he typically seeks to reflect the views of the committee’s center of gravity rather than stake out his own position.
Williams suggested Tuesday that the central bank could wait until December before raising interest rates again, pushing back against market bets on a follow-up increase next month.
At a speech in Buffalo, N.Y., Williams said: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency.”
At least for a day, Wednesday’s PCE data confirmed Williams’ thinking.
The data also showed consumer spending rising in August at the fastest pace in over a year, helping to power the economy through persistent inflation. But personal income was less than forecast. That’s not a real good combination, sports fans. It connotes rising consumer debt.
Now it’s on to Friday’s jobs report.
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We had a truly scary, almost disastrous moment in the skies today, as a FlyDubai plane heading for Israel made a harrowing emergency landing after one pilot stabbed the other in the cockpit – an attack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as an attempt to crash the aircraft.
Passengers and crew rushed forward and stopped the attacker as the plane hurtled toward the ground before making a safe landing in Saudi Arabia, according to people on the flight in an interview and in social-media videos.
“During the flight, as they approached the country, one of the pilots stabbed the second pilot, and apparently tried to crash the plane with everyone on board,” Netanyahu said.
Saudi officials said both pilots were taken off the plane with stab wounds after it landed.
Just over two hours into the early morning flight between Dubai and Tel Aviv, the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft plunged more than 14,000 feet in under 30 seconds, according to flight trackers.
At 1:31 a.m. ET, someone on the plane issued a Squawk 7700, indicating a general emergency. Seven minutes later, they switched the alert to a code for unlawful interference, according to Flightradar24 – used to describe attempts to jeopardize the safety of the airplane, like hijacking or hostage taking.
FlyDubai, the sister airline to the long-haul carrier Emirates, described an “altercation” breaking out in the cockpit of flight FZ1073. It said on-duty staff for the airline traveling on the flight safely landed the aircraft in Tabuk in western Saudi Arabia and “all passengers are safe and accounted for.”
I can’t imagine what the passengers went through. Had the attacker succeeded, the world would be a little different this evening, and the markets would likely have been shaken to their core.
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On a much lighter note, the Chicago White Sox beat the Houston Astros in the first game of their wild-card playoff series last night, 6-3. Before the game, owner Jerry Reinsdorf shared a letter from avid White Sox fan Pope Leo XIV he received earlier in the day.
The pontiff began his note by thanking Reinsdorf for the letter he sent after the team paid tribute to Leo during an Aug. 11 game against Cincinnati.
“It is my hope that the White Sox will continue to foster bonds of friendship and solidarity among people, and thus bear hopeful witness to the possibility of living and working together in peace,” Leo wrote.
“With these sentiments, I willingly invoke the Almighty’s abundant blessings upon you and your loved ones.”
The White Sox lost at least 101 games in each of the previous three seasons, but made the playoffs with an 84-78 record this year, a surprising turnaround.
Asked recently if he had a hand in the success, Pope Leo smiled and responded, “No comment.”
Go White Sox!
[As an aside, Houston players were ticked off they were booed, and that the crowd was 7,000 short of capacity. But this was a team that got into the playoffs despite an MLB-record-worst mark of 81-81. Outside of Yordan Alvarez, there is zero reason to pay big bucks to see them, wrote the Mets fan….]
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Dow Jones -443…-0.9% [50906]…market waiting for Micron earnings…3-2-1….
S&P 500 -19…-0.3% [7651]
Nasdaq +63…+0.2% [26861]
Oil (WTI) $90.40…Brent $98.00
Gold $4155
Silver $60.35
Bitcoin: $83,569 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.88%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.28%
Japanese 10-yr. 3.03%
Back Thurs.
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