Tues., Sept. 29, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., Sept. 29…regular $4.45…diesel $6.43
Diesel is now down nine cents in one week, but we have a long way to go before we even crack $6.00. [And heating oil futures (essentially interchangeable with diesel) rose today.]
Crude oil (WTI) had another volatile day, trading between $90 and $94 (and then below $90 late in the day*), as Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded in September to around their highest level since the war began in February, oil data trackers say. Shipments via the Strait of Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler.
*The U.S. authorized a 40-million-barrel release from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) which sits at 1982 levels.
So far this month, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the U.A.E. and others – moving through Hormuz and alternative routes – have risen to almost 13 million barrels a day. That is the highest total since February, when the region exported nearly 19 million barrels a day, according to ship tracker Huax.
As noted yesterday, Saudi Arabia is also starting to pump crude through its damaged East-West pipeline and load it on tankers in the Red Sea, though volumes remain reduced, officials familiar with the operations said. Some of the current output is also destined for domestic refineries.
Iran, by contrast, has been unable to move crude through Hormuz since the U.S. reinstated its maritime blockade in July. The stores of oil that Iran had stockpiled beyond the blockade could run out by mid-October, Kpler estimates, choking off a vital source of revenue as the country’s economy buckles under the pressure of sanctions and the strain of war.
But this also creates a dangerous incentive for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps to go after American interests in the region, and/or energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, as they have before, even understanding this will compel a U.S. response.
For now, few believe the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement on the Strait, let alone Iran’s nuclear program, prior to the midterm elections.
Meanwhile, this was one of those rare days where oil fell, but Treasury yields rose, the yield on the 30-year hitting 5.61% to touch a level last seen in 2002, as inflationary pressures and hefty corporate-debt supply weighed on the market.
The Treasury market is going through a “light buyer’s strike,” according to Citigroup strategists, while others see an opportunity and are turning bullish on Treasuries.
Surging business activity in the U.S. and government debt levels have provided additional momentum to what’s become the biggest Treasury selloff since Trump’s April 2025 tariff rollout sent markets into a tailspin.
Tuesday, Paramount Skydance Corp. kicked off its long-awaited investment-grade bond sale, the largest portion of a syndicated $52 billion debt package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. So, this takes some of the money away that would otherwise go to Treasuries.
And Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, one of the three or four most influential governors on the board, repeated a warning that further interest-rate increases will likely be needed to slow inflation.
Echoing comments he made last week, Barr said in remarks prepared for an event in Detroit today, “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”
“We want to support sustainable, durable growth in support of maximum employment, and price stability is crucial to that.”
Stocks fell again today, the AI titans meeting with President Trump at the White House.
Tomorrow, we have the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) for August. And Micron Technology’s earnings, both of which could move the market.
—
Dow Jones -131…-0.3% [51349]
S&P 500 -12…-0.2% [7671]
Nasdaq -22…-0.1% [26797]
Oil (WTI) $89.20…Brent $102.50
Gold $4170
Silver $61.30
Bitcoin: $83,567 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.89%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.25%…yields fell a bit late in the day as crude declined on SPR announcement.
Japanese 10-yr. 3.07%…30-year high…
Back Wed.
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