[Posted at 7:15 AM ET]
“Mr. Greenspan, your testimony reminds me of the squirrel,
zigzagging across the road…sometimes ending up dead.”
–Congressman Mac Collins, (Rep.) Georgia
The Federal Reserve chairman spoke at a number of forums this
week and he continued to muddy the waters. One assumes,
however, that the U.S., and the world, will nonetheless escape the
plight of the poor squirrel. Unless it”s a Japanese squirrel…in
which case a chorus of “Sayonara Baby” would be appropriate.
But more on the Land of the Setting Sun in a moment.
For starters, however, let”s clean up some of the language that
analysts are throwing around. It is inaccurate to say that the U.S.
economy is currently “in recession.” First off, we all need to
accept the common definition that a recession is two negative
quarters of growth in a row. This week, we had a revision of 4th
quarter GDP and it still reflected an increase in economic activity
of 1.1%.
OK. So now we”re two months into a new quarter and you can”t
say we”re in recession, in my mind, until we enter the second.
[There are those who say negative growth commenced in
November. They could be correct, but, again, the quarter was
still positive. And I”m not into splitting the atom on this subject.
Just trying to keep it simple.]
Semantics? Yes. But for the vast investing public out there, it is
irresponsible for economists and strategists not to point this out.
Is the manufacturing sector already in a recession? Yes. Are we
at the start of a possible recession in corporate profits? Yes.
[That would entail two straight negative quarters of earnings
growth and the latest surveys favor this scenario for the first half,
at least, of 2001.] But the preceding does not mean the overall
economy is in recession.
And the news media is just as much at fault in this word game.
Whether it”s Wall Street or talk from Washington, geezuz, just
tell the truth!
The reason why this is all so relevant is because you have to try
(hard as it may be) to understand where Alan Greenspan is
coming from. Greenspan said this week that the risks of further
economic slowdown are still very prevalent, but that some of the
indicators reflect an overall economy which has gone from 90
mph to 50 mph, not one that has pulled a Dale Earnhardt (and
crashed into the wall doing 180).
The latest figures on items like auto and home sales are down, for
sure, but we”re coming off all-time levels of activity. Some
slowing was to be expected. At the same time, consumer
confidence numbers are still abysmal, but the actual level of
consumer spending isn”t that bad. And manufacturing rose a bit
in February (though this indicator remains at recession-type
numbers).
On the ultra negative side is the capital spending issue. And yes,
this is one area that did hit a wall, coming out of turn 3. Readers
of this column should not be surprised, as I”ve long argued that at
some point, corporate chieftains (as well as individual consumers)
would realize that they don”t necessarily have to have the latest
software, the added server, or that extra PC; especially if the pace
of economic activity doesn”t warrant it. And in our short-term
mindset of meeting profit projections (or at least coming close),
it”s easy to just cut costs, today, and place the future on hold.
And therein lies a fundamental truth of our times. In the contest
between corporate executives and the consumer, where the
executive is thought to hold all the cards, the chieftain looks
increasingly like an idiot. For it was senior management,
particularly in the technology sector, that stupidly thought the
nirvana environment of 1999-2000 would continue forever. We
would all constantly want the next big “thing,” whether we
needed it or not. [And whether it even truly existed.] So let”s
just keep building plants, in all corners of the globe; or tear up
streets to lay cable. Which brings me to the following regarding
the major cause of all this hyper growth, the Internet. It”s almost
time to pull out your copy of Peggy Lee”s depressing tune, “Is
That All There Is?”
My favorite economist, Robert Samuelson, recently had the
following thought.
“Dazzled by the technology, we automatically assume that the
Net must represent a huge advance in economic efficiency and
social well-being – and someday it may. But for now, the Internet
is unproductive, costly and wasteful.”
Now let me be clear. Samuelson and I aren”t talking about
efficiencies that a GE has been able to wring out by employing the
Net. And I”m not talking about the fact that every corporation
can use the Net effectively, not just to enhance their message, but
also to coordinate internal activities.
And let me also reiterate that the Net is obviously a fantastic tool
for gathering information, and for learning. And, used properly, it
“may” make one a little more aware of the world around them.
That”s always a good thing.
But at the same time, one thing that I feel is playing in the back of
many minds, particularly of CEOs and Nasdaq-type investors, is
the growing realization that, yes, this is all there is!
The hardest thing for people to do, especially those who work on
Wall Street or are employed in classic tech-related industries, is to
step back and think for a moment, just how much of this does the
average American…not you…but the average American (or
European, or Latin American, or Asian) really need? And, just as
importantly, at what price?
Outside my office Friday morning, the jackhammers were wailing
away for the second time in less than six months, laying cable and
improving the infrastructure, all for the purposes of speed.
Around the world, hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent,
most of which may never be recouped. Why? Because
eventually, through competition and creative destruction, the
costs of whatever services are being provided won”t come close
to meeting the debt obligations. And that”s if we really want
whatever is being offered! And as for speed, how much more do
we need? Until we can predict a British train accident, before it
actually occurs, we”re at as fast a speed as is necessary. I”m
buying a new PC next week (to replace a 6-year-old model), and I
will probably just buy a Pentium 700, far below the maximum on
the market. Why? That”s all I need!
In other areas of the Net, look at the experience of online
retailing. Folks, in the U.S. it still represents less than 1% of total
retail sales! And I warned long ago that in the case of Internet
advertising, it”s a bust. Advertising levels actually fell
between the 2nd and 3rd quarters last year; this in a field like
everything else about the web that was expected to grow at 30%
plus for as far as the eye could see.
Right about now, many of you would probably like to pop me, or
you think I”m nuts; in the case of the latter, you”d ask, then why
are you still doing StocksandNews? Why? Because I”m
determined to be one of the 3 or 4 sites you go to, either for
information, opinion, or entertainment, as you abandon the other
15 to 20 that you had previously bookmarked. As I mentioned
last week, the sad truth is, Net usage is dropping! You”re getting
bored.
And seriously, folks, the reason why this discussion is important
is because it has everything to do with the way investment
“opportunities” have been presented to the public these past few
years. My heart goes out to those who fell for the Wall Street
hype; who thought 20-30% returns were some God-given
birthright.
Lastly, when you think about the future of technology and the
world at large…ponder this. By 2050, only 1 in 9 people will live
in developed countries. Except for the U.S., the population in
those elite few will actually decrease! As for the other 8 of 9,
their primary concern is going to be how to get a glass of clean
water, or something more to eat than bark. Not whether or not
they can download the latest offering from Green Day, or some
Spielberg flick.
The Week on Wall Street
Pursuant to some of the issues I laid out above, here”s where I
stand with regards to the economy and the financial markets. I
still think we”re going to avoid a recession (as classically defined),
but it will obviously be close if that proves to be the case. The
severe inventory correction that we are witnessing does indeed
sow the seeds for a modicum of growth later on. But, as I feel
compelled to reiterate each week (because I have new readers…
at least I better), overcapacity and huge debt levels will prevent
any replay of “Happy Days Are Here Again.”
It”s a muddle through environment that I envision, lasting for
possibly quite some time. And I see no reason to change my
original forecast for 2001 regarding the equity markets. Up or
down 5% for the Dow and the S&P 500, and tack on a few
hundred points for the Nasdaq, meaning about 2800-3000.
Regarding the latter, after the carnage of the past 12 months,
that”s like “Whoop de damn do.”
And if the above were to come to pass, that”s an environment
fraught with malaise and complacency.
For the week, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all either hit new
lows or at least the lower end of trading ranges. The Nasdaq fell
below 2100 at one point and now resides at 2117, the lowest level
since December 1998. The current losing streak stands at 5
weeks, with a 24% decline during that period. Yes, another bear
market within the bear. And forget that the Nasdaq is down some
58% from its all-time high of last March 10. It”s down exactly
50% just since September 1st!
As for the Dow, it had another week of minimal net change, yet
there was certainly plenty of excitement intraweek. It tacked on
25 points, to finish at 10466.
Corporations ranging from Oracle, to 3COM, to SBC, all issued
profit warnings for the aforementioned reasons. The slowdown in
capital spending is across-the-board.
But the markets also could take no cheer from Alan Greenspan.
Earlier in the week, Bear Stearns economist (and former Fed
governor) Wayne Angell, a surly old guy, swore up and down
that the Federal Reserve was going to lower interest rates before
it formally met on March 20. The Street followed Angell like a
bunch of lemmings on crack and rallied. Then Greenspan hinted
at nothing of the kind in his congressional testimony. The high
wore off and the markets collapsed.
What should be a bigger issue, however, is the health of the
overall world economy. Europe continues to do just fine, though
the constant pounding their agricultural sector is taking has
exacted a toll. Latin America is struggling, and Asia is slipping.
And then there is Japan. Prime Minister Mori will be resigning
shortly, and hari kari should not be out of the question. His
approval rating is lower than the number of people buried in
Grant”s Tomb.
And it absolutely boggles the mind to see the Nikkei stock index
trading at its lowest level since 7/31/85 (12261). Back in ”85, the
Nikkei was about to rocket all the way to 38915 by December
1989, before commencing its sickening slide to oblivion.
The problem in Japan today, however, is that the government has
tacked on so much debt, in previous failed attempts to resurrect
the moribund economy, that it can no longer afford further
booster shots. And the equally heavily indebted banks are now in
a situation where minimum capital reserve requirements are about
to be violated due to their crumbling equity portfolios. It”s a
disaster in the making and is as much a wild card as any
international political event I write of. Plus, for those of you
enamored with the potential for mobile phones with Internet
applications, consider this. Japan leads the world with 20 million
in use today. And look at their economy. Oh well, at least they
are letting off some steam. The following email messages were
intercepted by our crack investigative team.
“…Our country sucks…dinner tonight?…”
“…No, I”m too depressed…bring back the Empire…”
Street Bytes
–U.S. Treasury yields hit two-year lows with the expectation of
further interest rate cuts to come, even if not on Wayne Angell”s
original timetable.
1-yr. 4.47% 2-yr. 4.46% 10-yr. 4.94% 30-yr. 5.37%
–Energy: The situation in California has stabilized some and the
state has tried to take control by buying up the utilities”
transmission lines. The problem is, these are low-profit ventures
and California”s debt load from their increasing role in the power
business will skyrocket. Maybe not a problem today, but in a
statewide recession, it can become one. And I still say the issue is
more about what happens this summer, particularly as the AC is
cranking full blast during heat waves.
Separately, once again I have to comment on those railing against
development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
Many are touting the fact that estimated reserves may equate to
only a 6-month supply of crude at current usage levels. First off,
these estimates are almost always way too conservative (how
many of us were told in the late 70s that we would be out of oil
by 2000?), but, second, 6 months is huge!
Opponents continue to miss the Big Picture. Of course we need
to have a national energy policy that includes conservation and an
aggressive program to seek out alternative energy sources, but
that”s years down the road. [Admittedly, just as full utilization of
ANWR is.] Since we currently import up to 56% of our energy
needs, what happens in a crisis? That 6-month reserve could be
vitally important. At worst, it”s one hell of an insurance policy.
And to the Thomas Friedmans of the world (a New York Times
columnist), for the last time, the caribou will survive…and just
keep right on multiplying.
–A further note on the Net. Buy.com, by all accounts an
excellent site, is projecting 2001 sales 26% below last year”s
level. And this is a growth industry?!
–If you thought the XFL”s ratings were in a freefall, just wait
until this summer and the figures for business channels (unless
there is a true crisis which drives traffic).
–Speaking of crises, if one of my political wild cards erupts, all
bets are off regarding our economy, and that”s why I”ll continue
to feature the international scene in these commentaries.
–Microsoft”s antitrust appeal went before a federal panel and it
would appear that the breakup order of last year may be reversed.
However, the core antitrust charge would probably stand.
–Alan Greenspan was once again quoting the Wall Street analyst
community as a reliable source. Pin a note on his windbreaker.
It”s dog track time.
–As I was catching up on my reading, I noticed that my state of
New Jersey was hit with a little snowstorm while I was away, and
that cell phone usage was essentially shut down for 4 hours
because the various systems couldn”t handle the load of people
calling home concerning their commute. Just imagine the
communications breakdown if we ever have cause for a real
panic…and the resultant impact on the financial markets!
*And, oh, do I have a story for you next week on this very topic!
You may want to hide the kids…and any day traders in your
family.
–I”m sure you wonder, from time to time, as I do, whether or not
the drugs or vitamins you are taking really contain the ingredients
on the label. How do you know if your vitamin C is 250 or 500
mgs.? Of course, we leave it up to the FDA to police these
matters and this week, a major drug company, Schering-Plough,
admitted that the inhalers they were selling lacked the proper
ingredient, a rather dangerous development for asthma sufferers.
And what”s scary is that this kind of fraud (and that”s simply what
it is) could be widespread.
–The average technology mutual fund is down 56% for the one-
year period ending 3/1. [The S&P 500 is only off 9% during that
time.]
–One of the reasons why I am as sanguine on the economic
outlook as I am is that I keep looking at my steel indicator. The
following raw numbers aren”t important in and of themselves, but
they help to paint a picture. I chose my own index figures.
From 7/99-12/99, as the economy was booming, my index shows
an increase of 19 to 21.
From 7/00-12/00, as the economy was slowing, the index fell
from 21 to 18.
But in both 2000 and 2001, the January and February figures
were stable. In other words, steel usage is reflecting no real
slippage early this year as one would expect if we were truly
falling off a cliff. This is just one little indicator, but not to be
ignored.
–Regarding my own personal portfolio, I am now about 45%
cash/bonds, 50% energy, and 5% mad cow. Despite declining
energy prices, investors have bid up the stocks recently because
this is one of the few sectors that may meet expectations, even if
the raw numbers begin to dip as the price of oil and other energy
products falls.
International Affairs
Middle East: As we”ve discussed since last fall, Yasser Arafat is
increasingly irrelevant to the whole process in the region. For
starters, he”s really not even engaged, and legitimate Palestinian
leaders are tired of the massive corruption in the Fatah
organization. And it”s a wonder to me that someone from Hamas
or Hezbollah hasn”t plugged him (sorry to be harsh, but this is the
Middle East). Of course, it”s wishful thinking to come to the
conclusion that any replacement for Arafat will be to our liking.
Iraq: A German newspaper reported that Iraq will have nuclear
weapons capable of hitting Europe in 3 years. As I strolled
through Rome, I remarked to my friends (admittedly, they
probably didn”t want to hear it) that there is certainly a greater
chance of Iraq, or its proxies, carrying out a massive act in some
European city, as compared to the U.S. [Not that we let our
guard down.] Terrorists are cowards, and the easiest thing to do
is to hit the U.S. through Europe, or bomb embassies, as was the
case in Kenya and Tanzania.
But during Secretary of State Powell”s tour of six Middle Eastern
countries, he had to face the fact that most Arab leaders no longer
view Saddam as a threat and, thus, Powell has recommended that
we reshape the current sanctions regime against Iraq. Some are
calling this appeasement. I say, thanks to the failed 8-year policy
of the Clinton administration, this is the best we can do in order
to try and control the flow of weaponry into Saddam”s hands.
Separately, the Bush folks need to be concerned with Turkey”s
recent overtures to Iraq. Aside from the fact that we have our
vital air base at Incirlik (usage of which is increasingly an irritant
to the Turks), we can never forget who some of Turkey”s direct
neighbors are…Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
What Turkey fears is that if Saddam was ousted, it could lead to
an independent Kurdish state on Turkey”s border (the Kurds
being their historic enemy). Now that Turkey”s government and
economy are in a shambles as a result of events of their own
making, it is nonetheless critical the U.S. provide whatever
support is necessary in order to keep them from veering off any
further.
[William Safire ripped Powell for not stopping in Turkey for at
least a few hours. Safire is correct.]
Russia: Strategist Robert Kaiser had the following comment.
“The Russians are scared, and resentful. And a resentful,
unsuccessful Russia can easily make life miserable for its
neighbors, and for us.”
President Putin traveled to South Korea where he attempted to
make nice with them (and pull the South away from the U.S.
regarding the topic of missile defense). He also offered South
Korea”s military new equipment as part of any Russian loan
repayment.
“We give you good T80 battle tank, you reduce our debt, yes?”
And then Putin continues to zig and zag on NMD. One week
he”s belligerent. The next conciliatory. This week it was the
former. “Any attempt to change the ABM treaty will shake the
strategic root and trunk of world peace and security.”
China: I did a series recently on Tiananmen Square (1989) for
“Hott Spotts” and the parallels to today are eerie. Back then, the
government was torn between allowing a certain level of dissent,
or crushing it. Today, as the Communists continue to pursue
economic reforms, they are also attempting to quash movements
like Falun Gong, thus incurring the wrath of human rights
advocates. The leadership remains determined to avoid the failed
example of Russia, who, in the Chinese eyes, loosened the
democratic reins too quickly, thus leading to economic collapse.
And so it is that this week, China announced it was sentencing to
death 7 who are involved in a $6 billion tax fraud scheme. [They
received export credits for fictitious goods sold overseas, then
turned around and sold the goods domestically, thus avoiding the
tax.] And, also, China shocked the U.S. by, in essence, admitting
that one of its defense firms may have aided Iraq in building up its
air defense system. China said it would investigate the charge.
Hopefully, this latter act of good faith is more than a mere gesture
to a new administration. But I have a suggestion. Since I believe
that virtually all the world”s governments are corrupt, let”s send
the leaders to China to stand trial…which would be a truly
cleansing experience for all the earth”s people.
Indonesia: The carnage resulting from the ethnic clashes on
Borneo is staggering. In one instance this week, 118 were killed
while under police escort. In another, the police suddenly started
firing on each other!
Afghanistan: The Taliban, the world”s leading dirtballs, are
effectuating a campaign to destroy all statues in the country.
There will be no idolatrous images, they say. Of course, this
means that they are destroying some incredible pieces of ancient
art in the process. Somehow I”m not sure this is something that
Muhammad would approve of, eh?
Mad Cow / Foot-and-Mouth
When I was in Italy, authorities discovered their third case of mad
cow. But one report also said that 72 had died in the country
over the past year of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the affliction that
can result from humans being infected with BSE, or the mad cow
virus. So what gives? Doctors say that the CJ in these instances
was a “classic strain,” and not animal related. But the death rate
was twice the norm, regardless. This is the scary part. We simply
don”t have a clue what is really going on with the sudden rash of
animal diseases.
Last week I mentioned the foot-and-mouth outbreak in Britain.
As you may have heard, it”s spreading like wildfire, even crossing
over into Northern Ireland. The effect on the regions impacted is
devastating. All travel is limited, access denied to many places,
and the British government is even thinking of postponing
parliamentary elections to reduce crowds.
Foot-and-mouth can be transmitted on humans shoes, so anyone
flying from Britain to another country, for example, who then
comes in contact with a farm may inadvertently spread the
disease. The current outbreak is Britain”s worst since 1967 and at
least 100,000 farm animals face slaughter. It could end up being
much graver. In Ireland, a mini-panic is developing.
This is all part of the new world; free trade and globalization.
Back to Italy, I asked a waiter how mad cow impacted his
industry. Obviously, butchers are out of work, but, on a
somewhat lighter note, many restaurants have had to totally
revamp their menus. Rabbit is now a staple (and something I
enjoyed twice). [I also thought it was weird that in one place I
was drinking a Peroni from a 1996 Atlanta Olympics mug.]
Lastly, some other mad cow tidbits I have gleaned from extensive
reading on the subject.
–Meat from as many as 60 animals may go into a single
hamburger mix. [Ground up animal parts being the “carrier” of
mad cow.]
–Many cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and even Gucci handbags are
made of animal waste. Some anti-aging cremes are, in essence,
lightly processed bovine materials. Also, some muscle-enhancing
proteins are nothing more than “cow in a pill.”
One other food-related item. Some StarLink, the brand name for
genetically modified corn intended for consumption only by
animals, has been found in seed intended for planting. The food
companies (who already have had problems with StarLink-like
corn finding its way into Taco shells) said this couldn”t happen.
So we”ve now set the stage for major protests by world trade and
environmental groups. And a case like this doesn”t exactly give
comfort to those of us who are wondering if we can really keep
mad cow out of this country.
George W. Bush…and the Democrats
The reviews for President Bush”s speech the other night were
strong. He deserved them. But then I”m watching the Democrats
response and I had to cough up my Chex Mix. There is Tom
Daschle, spouting off about the failure of the Reagan tax cut, and,
thus, the dangers of the Bush plan.
Again, I ask, when will someone in power just tell the truth?
Under the Reagan tax cut, government revenue absolutely soared.
The problem was on the spending side, and for this Reagan does
deserve his share of criticism. But some of that spending was
warranted (i.e., on the defense side). Those are the simple facts.
On the budget front, for the record, the President”s $2 trillion
plan for fiscal 2002 has significant spending increases for
education (+11.5%), the State Department (+5.5%), and Defense
(+4.8%), but only 1.4% for NASA. The budget also assumes that
the economy will grow at a 3.2% clip for the next ten years. I”d
lock that in today, if I could.
I mention NASA because you all know how I would give huge
increases to the agency, as well as funds for the protection of our
national historic parks and monuments (the Bush plan only calls
for improvements to the infrastructure and doesn”t go far
enough). Yup, there”s a simple theme here for your editor.
“Protect the past, look to the future.” [All contributions can be
sent to StocksandNews. The first one in gets to be treasurer.]
More Random Musings
–Hillary”s job approval rating in New York is down to 22%.
Said pollster John Zogby, this is a Nixonesque figure.
–Bill Clinton”s papers as governor are nowhere to be found.
Normally, these are turned over to state schools for research.
–And isn”t it wonderful that just when we had figured out all the
different women Clinton was sleeping with, another one comes
along. Wow, Beth D. was in the White House some 43 times
over the past few years and, according to NBC News on Friday,
almost all visits were to the White House residence. Mini-series
alert!!!
–Parade magazine had their annual survey of what various people
earn in America. The world”s least funny guy, Adam Sandler,
made $28 million in 2000, while Lulu Fichter, a potter in
Harrisville, New Hampshire took home $12,000. And I bet Lulu
is funnier.
–Canada lost an incredible figure this week, G. Arthur Martin, a
criminal lawyer and judge, who was described as “one of the
world”s greatest.” What caught my eye in particular is the fact
that, while a criminal defense attorney between 1938 and 1973,
Martin defended 60 murder suspects and not one of them was
convicted of the murder charge.
–European governments are increasingly miffed at Switzerland”s
banking policies, i.e., the prevalence of secret accounts and the
protection of crooks like Marc Rich. This could be a far bigger
story in a year or so because, obviously, it should be in
everyone”s best interest to ensure that money laundering
operations become easier to identify, let alone secret bank
accounts for the use of government officials from Latin America,
to, ah, the U.S.!
–I commented on the situation with the Mafia in Italy last week.
Just to give you a better idea of its impact on the economy where
its presence is strongest, southern Italy”s per capita income is just
56% of that of the northern part of the country.
[Last week I wasn”t able to give you all my thoughts on Rome
and I still had some time left there to report on.]
–Some of the Jesuit priests I was with were interviewed by the
press because of their connection to Cardinal Dulles. If you”re
Catholic, in particular, you may get a kick out of these actual
questions.
“And did the Mass go well?” “What does it mean to serve
Mass?”
And then there were these comments, overheard while sitting in
St. Peter”s Square. At the top of St. Peter”s, you have statues of
Jesus and the Apostles.
“Is that one John the Baptist?” “Where is St. Christopher?”
Ah, St. Christopher isn”t exactly a saint anymore. Film at
eleven.
–My hotel was situated near the beautiful Borghese Park, at one
end of which was the Borghese Art Gallery, one of the world”s
best. Or so I”m told, because three times I tried to get in and
couldn”t because of their screwed up reservation system. The last
time I was a little miffed and stewed outside for a few moments.
Then I went back into the gift shop and looked at the postcards of
the paintings that I had missed. Now how pitiful is that?
But, alas, all was not lost for I remembered that there was a zoo
in the park. In my world travels, I always hit them. Well, upon
entering Borghese”s, the first thing I came across was the monkey
house. It was OK. But afterwards, I quickly realized that the rest
of the zoo was one of those old-fashioned, ugly, depressing, European
types. For example, there was a huge brown bear in what
appeared to be a 10X20 cellblock. Simple cruelty. [I would have
let him go, but I didn”t have any bear repellent handy to protect
myself.]
Well, there I am, staring at some buffalo (who were in about a
20X30 space, so we got to stare at each other, up close and
personal), when it hit me. Maybe the place has Yak!
Now your editor is fired up. There is reason for being…and
another good excuse to write off the trip. But I walked all over
the “range” animal exhibit and no Yak. [I did come up with a
new favorite, however, the European fallow deer, which has a
small body and terrific, oversize antlers.]
Depressed (a slight overstatement), I went over to the Griffon
vultures (cool) and then, over in the far corner, holy Yak! “Yak
Domestico,” “Bos mutus grunniens.” There they were, three very
ugly, mangy Yak. I smiled at them, gave them a thumbs up, and
all they did was grunt a little. [I thought the least they could do
was give me a high five, or offer me a Peroni, in return.] Back to
more standard Yak updates next week.
–On my flight home, it hit me. In all the churches I was in, and at
all the ceremonies and Masses I attended, I prayed for everyone I
could think of. But I didn”t pray for myself! Dohh!
–I”m ready for “The Sopranos.”
Gold closed at $262
Oil, $27.84
Returns for the week, 2/26-3/2
Dow Jones +0.2%
S&P 500 -0.9%
S&P MidCap +0.3%
Russell 2000 -0.1%
Nasdaq -6.4%
Returns for the period, 1/1/01-3/2/01
Dow Jones -3.0%
S&P 500 -6.5%
S&P MidCap -3.3%
Russell 2000 -1.4%
Nasdaq -14.3%
Following are some key index benchmarks you may want to keep
handy, as we approach the anniversary of the Nasdaq”s record
high.
3/10/00
Dow Jones 9928
S&P 500 1395
Nasdaq 5048…the Nasdaq then fell to 3320 on 4/14/00…but
rallied back through 9/1.
9/1/00
Dow Jones 11238
S&P 500 1520 [7 shy of its high, 1527, set on 3/24/00.]
Nasdaq 4234…then a 50% slide to today.
Bulls 57.4%
Bears 30.9% [Source: Investors Intelligence]
Note: Don”t forget to check out our updated “Web Tips,” listed
above under “Articles.”
*If the northeast is slammed by the storm this weekend, as
predicted, it may impact my ability to update some of the other
links.
And, as always, I greatly appreciate your support. Thank you,
also, for being understanding of last week”s tone.
Brian Trumbore
