[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Note: The end of this week proved to be a little hectic as I
traveled back from Ukraine through Paris, arriving home about
12 hours ago. I was able to keep up on most of the world’s
events but you’ll have to forgive me if I fill in some blanks next
time. I’m running on fumes.
Iraq
It’s been three bloody, costly years and in a blistering attack on
the White House, conservative commentator George Will
concluded “conditions in Iraq have worsened in the (now 100)
days that have passed since Iraq’s elections in December.”
Former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said the nation is
embroiled in a “civil war.”
But Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld writes in a
Washington Post op-ed, “The terrorists seem to recognize that
they are losing in Iraq” and touted growing Sunni participation in
the political process, while President Bush, when pressured in a
press conference, said Rumsfeld shouldn’t resign. Then Bush
added:
“Every war plan looks good on paper until you meet the enemy.”
This from an administration that had no plan…no post-war plan
of operations. Bush later said, “We’re making progress because
we’ve got a strategy for victory.” As you can see from the polls,
a majority of Americans these days are concluding “whatever.”
My bottom line is this. Yes, the Kurd north and Shia south are
relatively calm, but there is no success overall without the center
and as for the south it is essentially becoming part of Iran.
I would also add that as everyone looks back on the war thus far,
I documented in this space how our president was AWOL during
the summers of 2003 and 2004, critical periods for the
insurgency when real leadership was required. This is part of the
history, though as a supporter of the war from the outset, I still
cling to the belief, however misguided, that ten years from now
the criticisms will seem small when measured against a region
that has taken a decisive turn for the better.
Wall Street
It wasn’t a bad time to be overseas because little of real
consequence occurred as the Street just marked time, waiting for
this week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting;
the first to be chaired by Ben Bernanke.
But I want to bring up a front page story in the Wall Street
Journal that addressed the ongoing turnaround in the European
and Japanese economies. Will it be much stronger than
expected? And if so, is the world less dependent on the United
States and the American consumer to pick up the slack should
the U.S. in turn slow down? In a speech earlier in the week, Fed
Chairman Bernanke also touched on this and then we had further
evidence Japan’s prospects were indeed looking quite bright with
news land prices had risen in its three biggest cities for the first
time since 1990, while imports have been soaring as a further
sign the consumer is back after being in the doldrums for about
15 years.
So I have to note something I wrote on Aug. 13, 2005…warts
and all as you’ll see.
“But something else has been on my mind a lot recently as I
ponder my own recession forecast for early next year. It would
appear we are in a race against time, economically speaking. Is
it possible that the world, ex-U.S. and China, will finally carry its
share of the load in time to save the two big engines of growth
before they themselves take a header? Certainly Japan is stirring
…There are also some indications, perhaps ex-the U.K., that
Europe has bottomed. I have no real conclusions but I’m
wrestling with it all.”
Well, today we are closer to an actual conclusion. Should others
now be picking up the slack it’s certainly good on paper for all of
us, though at the same time it has the potential to totally roil
global bond markets as central banks are faced with the prospects
of ever-rising interest rates to combat potential overheating and
inflation; this as the U.S. is dependent on many of these same
nations to finance its deficits.
Back to Bernanke, he gave a speech in New York early in the
week wherein he did a masterful job in not telegraphing the
Fed’s next moves. But he was bullish on the U.S. economy and
he noted that consumers’ finances were healthy due to replacing
consumer debt with lower-rated home loans. “Families have
made a lot of progress in restructuring their liabilities,” adding
that on the real estate front only 10% of mortgages will reprice
this year.
But it was impossible to glean much on the bond front, as he
addressed the conundrum of yields on the longer end of the curve
being so low, despite the Fed hiking the short-term funds rate
from 1 to 4.5%, by saying bond yields were important only in
tandem with other data such as growth and inflation. A touch of
Greenspeak, from our new chairman.
As for that recession forecast of mine from last summer…never
mind.
Street Bytes
–The major averages virtually flat-lined, with the Dow Jones
unchanged (up a fraction of a point), while the S&P 500 lost
0.3% and Nasdaq gained a similar amount.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.77% 2-yr. 4.71% 10-yr. 4.67% 30-yr. 4.69%
Bonds were unchanged, with the exception of the two-year
which rose 7 basis points in yield, as the market digested
Bernanke’s comments as well as some key economic data.
The producer price index fell 1.4%, but the core rate, ex-food
and energy, rose 0.3%…the latter figure not good if you want the
Fed to stop after this Tuesday’s expected ¼-point hike in rates.
But then Friday saw a huge drop in new home sales, 10.5%, the
largest such decline in nine years. Plus the median price dropped
a 4th straight month. Taken alone, this would suggest the Fed
may be able to take a breather if this key engine of past growth
continues to stumble.
[New home sales in the West plunged 29%, while rising 13% in
the Northeast. And earlier in the week existing home sales
actually rose a bit.]
–The head of the European Commission labeled “absurd” the
economic nationalism sweeping Europe; Anglo-Saxon free
market economics vs. French protectionism. And tensions are
growing between the U.S. and China as Beijing says it’s wrong
for it to be labeled the scapegoat, including for our own problems
such as on the deficits front. President Hu Jintao’s trip to
Washington next month will be great fun.
–Oil continued to rally back, finishing the week at $64.27.
Here’s the bottom line. The International Energy Agency
recently projected demand for 2006 to be 84.7 mm barrels per
day. Call it 85, which they had originally forecast. Demand has
actually been falling in Southeast Asia where high prices have
the biggest impact.
But inventories of oil and gas throughout much of the world are
at 5-7 year highs so why does the price of crude (natural gas is a
different story altogether) remain near all-time levels?
Of course it’s the “terror premium,” or variations thereon, such
as with Iran’s issues with the UN Security Council, Nigeria’s war
in the oil-rich Delta, Saudi Arabia’s security problems and
Venezuela’s El Loco. And now you’re hearing legitimate
concerns over the coming hurricane season.
Personally, I have been out of the energy sector with regards to
my own portfolio since the spring of 2005. I missed the last big
spike because I kept waiting for the global slowdown that would
chill demand amidst a high supply environment. I was wrong.
But there are other factors that play into sentiment these days.
Like word that Norway’s February production was off 18%
compared to two years ago. Or on the flip side that Mexico’s
Pemex has a new giant find in the Gulf. Yet in the case of
Norway, the good news is it is ramping up production across the
board while the Pemex story, though great, is one for 10 years
down the road when it is finally commercially available.
Confused? For every item that supports the bulls case, you can
find one that gives sustenance to the bears.
For now, though, as hackneyed as it sounds, it’s going to be
about the weather as much as terrorism and political upheaval.
Don’t expect a big drop at the pump…it’s just not in the cards
until the global economy flips. And now Europe and Japan are
worth even closer scrutiny on that front.
–The airline industry, a big user of oil, is rocking and rolling
these days despite the high price of jet fuel thanks to big-time
cost cutting and full flights. The best thing the industry has done
is reduce routes and its schedule. Have you had a lot of empty
seats on your recent flights? I haven’t.
–In an interview for the Wall Street Journal, Treasury Secretary
John Snow commented on executive compensation.
“We’ve moved into a star system for some reason which is not
fully understood. Across virtually all professions there have
been growing gaps.”
Since the 1970s, CEO pay has gone from 40Xs the average
worker to 300 Xs. And one of the problems is most beneficiaries,
in all fields, are not stars.
–General Motors offered early retirement and severance
packages to all 113,000 blue-collar workers in the U.S.,
including parts supplier Delphi. Buyouts are up to $140,000
each, though the highest numbers apply to younger workers who
would then sever all ties to the company and lose their medical
benefits. Word to the wise; these packages are terrible. Keep
your job as long as you can and hope for a big time turnaround.
–Bird flu has evolved into two strains and the suspected human
case in Shanghai is most troubling.
–France’s Alcatel is in discussions to acquire Lucent, thus
creating the world’s largest telecom equipment manufacturer.
But Lucent barely rose above $3 on the news and those of us
living under its headquarters’ shadow here in New Jersey are left
to wonder what the impact will be on the local real estate market,
assuming big changes are coming. I’ll try and remember to
report on the lawn as spring takes hold.
–Shares in Google were up big on Friday on word it will finally
be added to the S&P 500 on March 31. Index fund managers are
now forced to buy it. Once again the ‘shorts’ got squeezed.
–The Los Angeles Times reported that real estate speculators are
fleeing California for Las Vegas and Arizona. Separately, while
homebuilding is slowing down, commercial construction is
slated to rise 9% for 2006, the best pace since 2001.
–Orange juice futures soared on forecasts for a busy hurricane
season, as well as the prevalence of crop diseases such as citrus
canker.
–Royal Dutch Shell paid $400 million to explore 219,000 acres
in Alberta, part of the Canadian oil sands. $billions in cap-ex
will follow should early tests prove as fruitful as expected. [And
as long as the price of oil holds above $40.]
–Microsoft is delaying yet again the launch of its new operating
system, Vista; this time until after the critical Christmas season.
–Investment banker Frank Quattrone had his obstruction of
justice conviction (part of the IPO allocation scandal) overturned
by a Federal Appeals Court in a big blow to the government’s
efforts against white-collar crime.
–Remember the China Aviation Oil (Singapore) derivatives
scandal from 2004? The lead trader, Chen Jiulin, was sentenced
to over four years in prison for his role in a $550 million loss.
–The average take per gaming table in Macau is $8,500; three
times that of Las Vegas. [Business Week] Of course this is also
a commentary on Asians’ penchant for gambling in the stock
market.
–I met an Irish kid in Newark Airport at the bar last Saturday,
(watching the NCAAs, of course) and we had a great conversation
about the economy in his region. He’s been working construction
in Cambridge, England – building roundabouts – and he couldn’t be
happier. He’s a foreman and oversees about 50 others, but with the
London Olympics in 2012 he already has a job locked up for the
next six years. [He was catching a connection to Naples, Florida,
to visit his parents who have a place down there. Dad also made
his money in construction. Ergo, blow off college, kids….as long
as the economy is sound.]
–Dell Computer is doubling its staff in India to 20,000 over the
next three years.
–Wendy’s Tim Hortons doughnut unit jumped about 25% on its
first day of trading Friday. A great product, endorsed by Homer
Simpson.
–My portfolio: Well, if you’ve figured out the carbon fiber play
that makes up a lion’s share of my equity holdings these days
you know I’m a happy camper. A big mistake I’ve made in
investing the past few years is not letting my winner’s ride and
this time I’m going to be a pig….at least until the next earnings
release and I see if the company is finally truly executing on the
business plan. Let’s just say last spring’s trip to Abilene, Texas
to visit the plant provided valuable insight into an already
intriguing story. Most importantly, I came away with a full
understanding of the risks on the manufacturing side. [And I
have to thank David P. for the original idea.]
Foreign Affairs
Iran: Talks on the mullahs’ nuclear program are at a standstill as
Russia and China refuse to levy sanctions. For its part the United
States, France and Britain, the other permanent members of the
UN Security Council, continue to seek an agreement whereby
Iran is at least given a deadline for cessation of its uranium
enrichment activities, which could then lead to putting Iran on
the record as violating the UN’s mandate.
Afghanistan: As I go to post, it appears there will be a resolution
in the case of the Afghan man facing execution for converting to
Christianity, but it won’t be anything the White House likes. If
moderate Muslims don’t stand up now they never will and this
single case has huge ramifications. For starters, Germany, Italy
and Canada have threatened to pull their troops from Afghanistan
and President Hamid Karzai’s days could be numbered. I’m not
talking through the ballot box.
Israel: Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday and Ariel Sharon’s
creation, Kadima, is well ahead and projected to win 36 of 120
seats in the Knesset, or over twice as many as either Likud or
Labour. Of course this means a governing coalition will have to
be cobbled together but this won’t be a problem compared to
other post-election debates.
And acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel cannot wait
for Hamas to “mature” so it will unilaterally establish its border
on the West Bank; this after Hamas proposed a cabinet with
hardliners occupying the top three slots and with zero support
from the PLO.
Hamas now faces a true cut-off of aid from the European Union
and once again the Palestinian people have a choice…either
move forward and negotiate or fall further into the abyss.
Remember, one large terror attack against Israel and Israel will
deal a devastating blow from which the Palestinians may never
recover.
China / Russia: President Vladimir Putin traveled to China for a
visit accompanied by Russian oil executives and a total
entourage of 800(!), as the two sides worked feverishly on
various projects including two proposed gas pipelines between
Siberia and China. Early on, however, there was no consensus
on China’s highly sought oil pipeline; Putin having reached
agreement last year with Japan that it would be the prime
beneficiary.
But then on Wednesday, Putin hinted China, not Japan, would
get the pipeline after all and China National Petroleum Corp. said
it was committed to spending $400 million on the project. [Two
distinct pipelines, one to the mainland and one to Japan, just
isn’t a feasible proposition, but a feeder line off one is
possible.]
Meanwhile, Japan has halted talks with China on a variety of
sensitive issues, essentially calling a time out.
China / Taiwan: President Chen Shui-bian told the new U.S.
representative on the island that he would behave, while the
opposition on Taiwan is rallying against Chen’s pro-
independence talk. At the same time Washington is highly
irritated that Chen is having problems selling a weapons deal
between the two that the White House insists on, as in ‘We can’t
help you if you won’t help yourselves.’ Chen is also receiving
heat for removing up to 100 statues of founder Chiang Kai-shek
(most from military bases), Chiang having favored reunification
with the mainland.
North Korea: Last week I quoted from the administration’s
National Security Strategy to try to prove the Bush
administration hasn’t forgotten Kim Jong-il. This week George
Will noted “North Korea has received less attention lately
than have Denmark and Dubai.”
Belarus: President Lukashenko (who some say will replace Putin
one day when Belarus is formally folded into Russia) captured
82.6% of the vote in his reelection bid vs. only 6% for leading
opposition figure Alexander Milinkevich. Europe and the U.S.
screamed the tally was rigged, while Putin sent his heartfelt
congratulations. Thousands of brave souls defied authorities’
warnings and demonstrated for a new election, but then early
Friday Lukashenko had the remaining 200 or so rounded up. So
it’s the EU and U.S. vs. Russia and the farce that passes for the
G-8 grows bigger by the day.
France: I was watching all the local news in Paris on Thursday
night from an airport hotel and glad I hadn’t decided to go into
town. The criminal element hijacked what were largely peaceful
protests and turned it into a riot. Richard Bernstein, a reporter
for the International Herald Tribune, commented that France
insists on “fighting the revolution over and over again.” And to
what purpose?
Prime Minister de Villepin is under intense pressure to withdraw
or drastically scale back his employment law proposal wherein
workers under the age of 26 could be laid off without cause in
the first two years. The protesters claim it leaves them
vulnerable to unscrupulous employers with some women, for
example, saying an employer could make a sexual advance and
fire her if she didn’t comply…or be fired for getting pregnant.
De Villepin’s approval rating is just 37% and the man who
would replace Jacques Chirac for president is in a box. Business
will abandon him in droves if he gives in to the students. A
general strike has been set for Tuesday.
On a different matter, Chirac looked like a total jerk when he
walked out of an EU summit meeting after a French industrialist
addressed the leaders in English while urging economic reform.
And lastly, the International Herald Tribune had a front page
story on Friday addressing the growing anti-Semitism in France,
a topic I’ve broached here often in the past. To put it bluntly,
this nation is a seething cauldron filled with hate-mongers of all
stripes and while on one hand outsiders could say “So what?”
remember a crisis here threatens the stability of the entire
continent.
India: I have a tremendous amount of respect for former Senator
Sam Nunn and thus was deeply disappointed to see he is voicing
major concerns with the U.S. – India nuclear pact; stating it will
foster a regional arms race with China and Pakistan. But in
pointing to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as some kind of
model, how can you ignore existing proliferation within the
club? And at the same time does anyone believe China and
Pakistan will cease their own buildups, let alone Iran’s current
quest, regardless of any deal between the two biggest
democracies? This debate is just getting started but for now the
bottom line is supporters of the pact such as yours truly will
need Nunn to get on board, as well as his colleague at the
Nuclear Threat Initiative, Sen. Richard Lugar. It’s going to
take some heavy lifting by the White House to get it done.
Lebanon: President Emile Lahoud told al-Jazeera that weapons
of resistance held by Palestinians and Hizbullah in Lebanon
should remain in their hands until the Arab-Israeli conflict is
over and the Palestinians regain their homes.
To which Druze leader Walid Jumblatt (clearly my favorite
politician in the truest sense of the word) said “Let the
Palestinians solve their own problems and not tie up Lebanon.”
Jumblatt again also called for Hizbullah to lay down its arms.
I’m surprised Jumblatt has lasted this long with the price that is
on his head.
Thailand: The election is April 2 and a leading opposition leader
has called for a coup to take down Prime Minister Thaksin’s
regime. A demonstration slated for Sunday could turn violent.
Spain: After four decades of conflict that claimed 800 lives, the
Basque movement ETA declared a permanent ceasefire. Wait a
few months before throwing them a parade.
Australia: Cyclone Larry, with winds of 180 mph, was the worst
storm to hit the Aussie coast in decades and did major damage;
including to a strip of the Great Barrier Reef. But it was truly
remarkable there were no serious injuries.
Ukraine: I went here this week to get a sense of the mood before
Sunday’s critical parliamentary election, the first big vote since
the Orange Revolution of late 2004 / early 2005.
But first I have to go off on somewhat of a tangent after reading
an account in the BBC on Friday concerning the political climate
in Ukraine, particularly in the capital, Kiev. The reporter vastly
overstated the enthusiasm among the people as if there was some
glorious, exhilarating exercise in democracy going on here.
In fact, after all my travels of the past seven years in particular,
I’m struck by the downright inaccurate “man on the scene”
reporting. In fact, much of what I read in this regard (and you
know I read from all sides by the sources I’ve cited) are flat out
lies.
Recently, I read a comment from a multi-Pulitzer Prize winner
that he had it on good authority Dale Carnegie books on
“management” were flying off the shelves in Gaza following
Hamas’ election victory. Right. For starters, this esteemed
reporter / commentator takes us all for chumps.
But here’s the deal in Ukraine. I probably spent as much time on
the main boulevard as the BBC reporter did and yes, it’s like a
tent city as the political parties have little shelters that hold a
table for literature and two or three volunteers; but that’s to
shelter them from the cold as much as anything else. 90% of the
tents are orange, for President Viktor Yushchenko’s Orange
Revolutionists, or the Our Ukraine Party. But I saw one…one…
person pass out a little flag as Ukrainians simply went about their
business. The reporter made it sound like there were thousands.
In fact if there was one word that summed up the mood I saw it
was total indifference.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a useful exercise in democracy for a
people just learning to play the game and the election is expected
to be free and fair, but also know these facts.
Yushchenko has been a huge disappointment and now he’ll face
a parliament and new prime minister with greatly expanded
powers.
Yushchenko will lose to 2004’s rival, former prime minister
Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of the Regions. Yanukovych
is projected to capture 30% of the vote and Yushchenko could
actually finish 3rd with about 15% behind his own former prime
minister, whom he fired, Tymoshenko, the charismatic, if not
half-crazy, woman with the braids. [Tymoshenko did have some
drop-dead gorgeous women working her limited booths…to give
you a little better color than the female BBC reporter would give
you.]
What’s important, though, is that Yanukovych is Vladimir
Putin’s butt-boy. It was Putin, you’ll recall, who unintentionally
threw the 2004 vote to Yushchenko when he blatantly
campaigned for Yanukovych. [Picture the uproar in this country
if, say, Mexico’s Vicente Fox campaigned with one of our
presidential candidates.] And Putin, faced with losses in Georgia
and elsewhere among the former republics of the Soviet Union,
sees a way to get Ukraine back in his sphere, though this time
he’s smartly taking a low-profile.
Ukrainians will repudiate Yushchenko (who nonetheless stays on
as a weakened president until 2009) in no small part because of
the shady gas deal he cut with the Russians and the mob-
affiliated 3rd party I wrote of early this year.
It goes deeper than this but I won’t bore you with the details.
The bottom line is that on March 26 voters will elect a new
parliament that will usurp Yushchenko’s powers. Yanukovych,
who has served two terms in prison, incidentally, for hard crimes,
will then do Putin’s bidding.
But…there are 45 parties putting up candidates and once again a
messy coalition will be the order of the day.
Ukraine, though, will muddle through. In fact I found things to
be quite prosperous. You see lots of construction cranes in Kiev
(not Shanghai-type activity, but more than most U.S. cities these
days) and the people appear reasonably happy. And that to me is
why indifference is the watchword.
[One overzealous policeman, though, did shoot a campaign
worker in the back one night when I was walking the main drag,
though I didn’t know this until afterwards.]
But I want to close this segment on a different note. I hired out
an English-speaking driver to take me around for four hours and
this young fellow, Maxsim, was a nice, earnest sort who was
anxious to learn more about America and to tell me about his
country.
So we’re going through the World War II museum and he asked,
“Do you know your country’s history?”
“I think I know a fair amount.”
“Our children don’t know any history.”
“Well, on this we’re the same. My generation knows some
history, but young people in America today aren’t taught much,
if any, real history in the schools.”
Around the world today so many of us have the same
shortcomings; a general lack of curiosity being one of them. But
in the case of Ukraine, it’s charting a new history that could yet
capture the headlines depending on how much influence
Vladimir Putin wants to exert with his ever-present gas card.
Random Musings
–The Atlantic Monthly recently asked a panel of 38 foreign
policy experts “Which states will pose the greatest overall threat
to U.S. security over the next decade, either directly or
indirectly?” Half chose Iran with Iraq, China, Pakistan and
North Korea all receiving four to six votes. I wouldn’t discount
Russia when you extend out ten years.
–GOP consultant Ed Rollins, who’s been through the political
wars, said “The country has given up on Bush.”
–This week Bush hit the 1,889 day mark without vetoing any
piece of legislation and he now trails just Thomas Jefferson who
went through an entire two terms without a veto. James Monroe
had a streak of 1,888 but according to USA Today he then vetoed
“a measure that would have imposed a toll on the Cumberland
Road, the first federal highway and the key road to the West.”
Just a little trivia for you. Bush’s refusal to act, however, is far
from trivial.
–An editorial in the London Times labeled Condoleezza Rice
“the world’s most powerful woman.” When you think of her in
those terms, as she should be, she really does have to run for
president, don’t you think?
–In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Fred Barnes suggested that part
of a Bush shakeup should be to move Condi to vice president and
Dick Cheney to defense. Karl Rove, according to Barnes, should
then head up the Republican National Committee. But what I
liked most about Barnes’s ideas was his thought of moving our
ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, to national security
adviser; a most enlightened pick….but we need Khalilzad in Iraq
a bit longer.
–In New Jersey, a Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton getting
soundly trounced by both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, 53-
39 and 54-39, respectively. Democratic Party leaders have
undoubtedly taken note.
–And speaking of New Jersey, our new governor, Jon Corzine, is
doing what most of us residents knew he would, raise taxes. My
six-pack is going to cost more, among other things, if Corzine
has his way with the state legislature. Heck, Gary the Beer Man
just hiked prices 11% a few months ago, much to my chagrin.
But regarding Corzine’s proposal, which includes a one percent
increase in the sales tax, as much as I loath the man he has a $2
billion budget gap to close and as long as he significantly reduces
the size of state government (he’s calling for 1,000 job cuts), it’s
pretty tough for Republicans to be shrill about it. Over the last
decade, New Jersey’s governors, both Republican and Democrat,
have turned the state’s finances into a shambles and property
taxes are beyond absurd. I’ve told you before how I own a town
home and the taxes on it are now $10,000. It’s a town home, for
crying out loud.
–I normally don’t comment on accidents, but this week’s tourist
bus crash in Chile that claimed the lives of 12 Americans was so
sad on many fronts. The group was on an excursion to a national
park from their Celebrity Cruise Lines ship, the kind everyone
goes on when on such a vacation, but the tour was not on
Carnival’s approved list and the passengers arranged it on their
own. The driver may have been inexperienced in dealing with
the dangerous road he took them on.
–On a lighter note, though it too could have been a tragedy, I
find it necessary to hand out a special “Idiot of the Week” award
to those responsible for a partial roof collapse in the Moscow city
subway system when they drove a post into the ground to help
erect a billboard. They did so without a permit and the pillar
caused the roof to collapse onto a subway car filled with
passengers, though no one was seriously hurt. Yes, the Gulag
would seem appropriate for the offenders. Even Amnesty
International would have to agree.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $560
Oil, $64.27
Returns for the week 3/20-3/24
Dow Jones +0.0% [11279]
S&P 500 -0.3% [1302]
S&P MidCap +0.2%
Russell 2000 +1.0%
Nasdaq +0.3% [2312]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-3/24/06
Dow Jones +5.3%
S&P 500 +4.4%
S&P MidCap +6.5%
Russell 2000 +12.0%
Nasdaq +4.9%
Bulls 46.3
Bears 30.5 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence…I gave
you all a real heads up with this data the past few weeks. It
flashed a classic contrarian signal, even if I didn’t believe it
myself, but the major press didn’t pick up on it until about 10
days later.]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
