[Posted 7:00 AM ET]
Israel vs. Hizbullah
On one of the paramount issues of this tumultuous decade, I will
continue to present all sides, as harsh as some of it may be, in an
attempt to fully understand the conflict.
Editorial / Daily Star (of Lebanon), July 31, 2006
“The tragedies in Qana suggest to the Lebanese that the Israelis,
who are waging a campaign of ethnic cleansing in South
Lebanon, have forgotten their own suffering during the
Holocaust. The Israelis and their allies have callously ignored a
besieged people’s pleas for mercy. Instead, the children of the
Holocaust, whom one would expect to show empathy for the
plight of weak and helpless innocents, are now meting out the
same racist rage that was demonstrated in Treblinka, Auschwitz
and Dachau. How can Israeli mothers and fathers sleep at night
knowing that their government is conducting massacres in
Lebanon? Do they believe that by virtue of our religion or
nationality that we innocent Lebanese are expendable? Have
they now embraced the very logic that sought to eliminate their
people?
“We urge the Israelis to abandon the logic of death and
destruction that they have been showering on the people around
them. We urge them to instead embrace the pursuit of
meaningful negotiations and the rapid implementation of all UN
resolutions. What is needed is a sense of humanity and an
intelligent resolution of this conflict, not America’s laser-guided
‘smart’ weapons, or other tools of extermination.”
Michel Aoun, former Lebanese prime minister, commander of its
armed forces, and current member of parliament / Wall Street
Journal, July 31, 2006
“No matter how much longer this fight goes on, the truth of the
matter is that political negotiations will be the endgame. The
solution that will present itself a week, a month or a year from
now will be, in essence, the same solution as the one available
today, and which, tragically, was available before a single shot
was fired or a single child killed. Given this reality, a more
concerted effort is required sooner rather than later to stop the
death and destruction on both sides of the border…
“(Our own recent) extensive negotiations with Hizbullah resulted
in an articulation of the three main roadblocks regarding
resolution of the Hizbullah arms issue: First, the return of
Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons. Second, the return of the
Shebaa Farms, a tiny piece of Lebanese territory still occupied by
Israel. And third, the formulation of a comprehensive strategy to
provide for Lebanon’s defense, centered upon a strong national
army and central state decision-making authority in which all
political groups are assured a fair opportunity to participate.
“This structure, if joined together with international guarantees
which forbid the nationalization of Palestinian refugees in
Lebanon and which protect Lebanon from Israeli incursions, and
if tied on the internal level to a new, fair and uniform electoral
law, is the best hope for peacefully resolving the Hizbullah
weapons issue…
“Our party presented this solution internally to all Lebanese
political groups, the Lebanese government, and the international
community – including the U.S. administration – repeatedly, for
an entire year before this crisis began.
“Rather than help us to resolve the weapons issue peacefully and
avoid the current agony our country is now enduring, the
international community and Lebanese government flatly
ignored the proposed solution….
“Let us (now) proceed from the standpoint that all human life is
equal, and that if there is a chance to save lives and to achieve
the same ultimate result as may be achieved without the
senseless killings, then let us by all means take that chance.”
Rami G. Khouri / Daily Star, Aug. 2, 2006
“The Israelis may be making subtle changes in their stated
strategic goals – from wanting to destroy Hizbullah, to degrading
it significantly, to pushing it back beyond the Litani River, to
simply preventing attacks against Israel. Israel has a legitimate
and reasonable demand in wanting to prevent attacks against its
territory from Lebanon, though it seems to remain blind to the
reality that attacks against it from Lebanon are part of a long
cycle where both sides have grievances.”
Editorial / Daily Star, Aug. 3, 2006
“Despite growing international calls for an immediate ceasefire
in Lebanon, Israel is persisting with its effort to save face,
insisting that it will achieve a tangible military victory before
negotiations begin. Much like Hizbullah, which on July 12
captured two Israeli soldiers in an effort to secure the release of
Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails, Israel has embraced the faulty
and dangerous logic of waging war in order to achieve piece. In
the course of the war, both Hizbullah and Israel have adopted
some of the same strategies and methods, endangering the lives
of civilians on both sides of the border. And as the war drags on,
Hizbullah and Israel run the risk of plunging the entire region
into a vortex of violence.
“All of the forthcoming death and destruction will be for naught.
A comprehensive solution to the longstanding Lebanon-Israeli
conflict has been put forth by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora. His proposed solution has already been approved
unanimously by the Lebanese Cabinet, including Hizbullah
ministers. The package includes seven points: an exchange of
prisoners; an end to Israel’s occupation of the Shebaa Farms and
incursions into Lebanese territory; a deployment of the Lebanese
Army to South Lebanon; a provision by Israel of maps of
minefields in South Lebanon; a disarmament of Hizbullah; a
probe into Israel’s indiscriminate bombings in Lebanon; and the
deployment of an international peacekeeping force to assist the
Lebanese Army in preserving security along the border.”
Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s foreign minister / Washington Post,
Aug. 3, 2006
“The grave tragedy that has been unfolding before our eyes in
Lebanon, and the inability of the international community to
bring it to an end after three weeks of suffering, unfortunately
raise questions about the United States and its proud legacy of
leadership for freedom and justice.
“After all, my generation grew up with an image of the United
States as standing for the revered values of democracy. It is sad
that this image of a ‘kinder, gentler nation’ is being tarnished as
millions around the world watch in complete horror as events
unfold in Lebanon.
“Today live images of the carnage and destruction are broadcast
directly into our households. Each time a bomb wreaks havoc on
the streets of Beirut, it hits the consciences of people
everywhere….
“Needless to say, this does not bode well for the much-needed
dialogue and understanding between civilizations.
“Retaining the higher moral ground is even more essential in the
age of instant information. It is time for all of us to act upon
what our collective conscience has been telling us for many days.
“In Lebanon we have once again seen the limitations of our
classic notions of security in the face of asymmetric challenges.
The reality is that the use of disproportionate and indiscriminate
force makes difficult situations even more intractable without
enhancing anyone’s security. In fact, if we take the long view, it
will be seen that the reverse is happening.
“The only way out of the present crisis is determined action by
the international community that truly addresses the core issues
that have been festering in the Middle East and that lie at the
very roots of the conflict. This requires nothing less than
genuine leadership, which must adhere to the values that it asks
of others in order to be effective.”
Editorial / Daily Star, Aug. 4, 2006
“Events as momentous as the current war between Israel and
Hizbullah, and Israel’s assault on all of Lebanon, have a
tendency to impact on the entire region, where the political
repercussions are likely to be serious. We see signs of this in the
usual channels of public opinion, including street
demonstrations, political protests, fund-raising campaigns, and
media statements…..Some (moderate) leaders had spoken out
against Hizbullah initially, naming it as the reckless party that
pushed Lebanon into its current state of siege and destruction.
Anger and protest have not been limited to the Arab world,
either, as has usually been the case when Israel attacks and kills
Arabs….
“The result is evident throughout the region. Hizbullah is both a
manifestation of this process and a catalyst for it. The current
war in Lebanon is likely to keep pushing Arab public opinion in
this same direction. The conspicuous disenchantment of large
segments – perhaps majorities – of Arab public opinion with
their own government policies is being exacerbated every day.
The consequences are ominous in a region with so much of the
world’s energy reserves, and so many governments and ordinary
citizens willing to use the most awful kind of violence to achieve
their goals.
“The signs of radicalization that continue to manifest themselves
in various Arab countries, as a consequence of the war between
Lebanon and Israel, must not be ignored. They must be
appreciated and addressed, with a ceasefire now and wider
political resolutions soon after, before they take the destruction
we witness today to other parts of the region and the world.”
Shlomo Avineri / The Jerusalem Post, July 30, 2006
“The emergence of the Shebaa Farms as a possible item in an
agreement authorizing a multinational force for South Lebanon
raises a number of issues of which not all the participants in the
current negotiations may be aware. They go deep into the
question of the very existence of Lebanon as a sovereign state….
“In the negotiations leading to the Israeli withdrawal from
southern Lebanon in 2000, Lebanon for the first time raised its
claim to the farms, but based on all previous historical
documents and maps, the UN sided with the Israeli version, i.e.,
that this was Syrian territory and subject to future Israeli-Syrian
negotiations. The Lebanese claim was used by Hizbullah to
continue its resistance to ‘Israeli occupation of Lebanese
territory.’
“Nobody, however, believes that even if the farms were handed
over to Lebanon, Hizbullah would stop its armed activities which
are, after all, aimed at the destruction of the ‘Zionist entity in
occupied Palestine.’
“So far this seems straightforward – until Syria enters the picture.
“At the time of the 2000 Israeli withdrawal the UN asked Syria
about its position on the issue. Damascus was in a quandary: On
the one hand, this was obviously Syrian territory; on the other, if
Syria conceded that the farms belong to Lebanon, there might be
a chance of getting one more sliver of Arab territory out of
Israeli hands.
“Syria thus responded that whatever its former claims to the
Shebaa Farms, it now agreed to cede them to Lebanon.
“But when the UN asked Damascus for a formal document
stating that the area had indeed been legally transferred to
Lebanon, Syria balked – and it has still not supplied such a
document.
“Why? At the root of the issue is the simple fact that up to this
very day Syria has not accepted the legitimacy of the existence of
a separate, sovereign Lebanese state. Lebanon was carved out by
the French imperial powers in the 1920s as an attempt to create a
pro-Western, Christian entity in the Levant – hence France’s
continuous solicitude for Lebanon, including its recent support
for UN decisions calling on Syria to evacuate Lebanon….
“In Syrian textbooks Lebanon appears as part of ‘Greater Syria.’
“The Syrian refusal to supply a document confirming the ceding
of the Shebaa Farms to Lebanon is not a mere formality: Were
Syria to issue such a document – clearly stating that the farms are
part of Lebanon and not of Syria – this would mean Syria
recognizes Lebanon as a separate, independent, sovereign
state….
“Diplomats who are now concerned with a cessation of violence
in South Lebanon and northern Israel should be aware of this
conundrum, which is no mere formality.
“If the Shebaa Farms appears in any form as part of the deal, this
should be accompanied by an unequivocal statement from Syria
recognizing that the area belongs to the Republic of Lebanon.
“It is my guess that the chances of such a statement are minimal.
Without it, the international legitimacy of the agreement – and its
subsequent implementation – may be extremely problematic.”
Dan Diker and Ya’akov Amidror / The Jerusalem Post, July 27,
2006 ]
“Israel went to war to remove Hizbullah’s strategic missile threat
on the Jewish state’s northern border. Hizbullah has kept Israel
hostage to its missile threat for the past six years, during which
the terror group has transformed itself into a highly effective
deterrent force….
“(While) Israel is at war only to eliminate the acute strategic
threat of some 13,000 to 15,000 short- and longer-range Iranian
and Syrian missiles pointed at its major cities, this Israeli
campaign must also achieve three additional and necessary
outcomes that have far-reaching implications for the future of the
Middle East region and the free world.
“First, an Israeli victory over Hizbullah – meaning the uprooting
of Hizbullah as an armed force that has become an army within
an army – may offer the Lebanese people another window of
opportunity to become a democratic sovereign state free from the
fear and tyranny Syria and Iran, via Hizbullah, have imposed on
it….
“The second necessary byproduct of Israel’s war against
Hizbullah is the ripple effect it will have on the international axis
of radical Sunni and Shiite Islamic networks. Radical Islam is
nurtured by its perceived successes, as it is poisoned by its
perceived failures. Unfortunately, since the 1979 Iranian
revolution, and particularly following the defeat of Soviet forces
by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 1989, radical Islam has felt ‘well
fed’ by its successes against the West.
“Osama bin Laden is alive and has been in command since the
al-Qaeda attacks of September 11. The United States is bogged
down in Iraq. Al-Qaeda scored quantitative hits in London and
Madrid, and even caused a change of government in the Spanish
elections.
“Moreover, Israel’s unilateral retreat from Lebanon in May 2000
was considered a major victory by Hizbullah, providing
important encouragement to Yasser Arafat, who based his
Intifada 2000 strategy on Hizbullah’s terror war of attrition in
Lebanon from 1982 to 2000.
“Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in September 2005
was also clearly understood by the Palestinians as a vindication
of the Hamas terror group’s actions, and this led in no small part
to the Hamas electoral victory in January this year. The Muslim
Brotherhood has since refortified itself in Egypt and Jordan….
“Therefore, and in no uncertain terms, the Israeli
counteroffensive in Lebanon is one of the last stations at which
the seeming runaway train of radical Islam can be stopped or
certainly slowed in its tracks.
“The West and radical Islam have reached a dramatic, yet still
undetermined, turning point: An Israeli victory over Hizbullah
would send a critically important signal to the American and
Iraqi government forces fighting the radical insurgency in Iraq
and Afghanistan; to the Hamas terrorists in Gaza; and to its
leadership and Syrian hosts in Damascus. An Israeli failure
would have the opposite effect, strengthening Hamas’s terror
operations and radical Islamic groups in Europe, and increasing
the threats against Jordan, Egypt and other Arab countries.
“The third critical byproduct of a successful Israeli campaign
would be a blow to Iran. Israel must neutralize Tehran’s
strategic weapon – Hizbullah – which has been a lever by which
Tehran could threaten to ignite the Middle East at will.”
Editorial / Washington Post, Aug. 1, 2006
“(The Bush) administration’s rhetoric about the crisis as ‘an
opportunity’ for ‘a new Middle East’ may horrify Washington’s
self-described realists. But a more hardheaded way of spelling
out the same stakes came from Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese
Druze leader who is no friend of the United States or Israel.
‘Either we will have a state able to establish its control over the
country or we will have…a reduced weakened state and a strong
militia beside the Lebanese army that decides war and peace at
any time and has its schedule decided by the Iranians and the
Syrians…I don’t see a state of Lebanon surviving with a militia
next to an army. That’s it.’”
Brett Stephens / The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1, 2006
“Generally speaking, wars are lost either militarily or politically.
Israel is losing both ways. Two weeks ago, Israeli officials
boasted they had destroyed 50% of Hizbullah’s military
capabilities and needed just 10 to 14 days to finish the job. Two
days ago, after a record 140 Katyushas landed on Israel, Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert told visiting Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice he needed another 10 to 14 days. When the
war began, Israeli officials spoke of ‘breaking’ Hizbullah; next
of evicting Hizbullah from the border area; then of ‘degrading’
Hizbullah’s capabilities; now of establishing an effective
multinational force that can police the border. Israel’s goals are
becoming less ambitious while the time it needs to accomplish
them is growing longer.
“It is amazing how much can be squandered in the space of three
weeks. On July 12, Israel sat behind an internationally
recognized frontier, where it enjoyed a preponderance of military
force. It had deterrence and legitimacy. Hizbullah’s cross-
border raid that day was widely condemned within Lebanon and
among Arab leaders as heedless and provocative. Mr. Olmert’s
decision to respond with massive force enjoyed left-to-right
political support. He also had a green light from the Bush
administration, which has reasons of its own to want Hizbullah
defanged and which assumed the Israelis were up to the job. But
it seems they are not. The war began with a string of intelligence
failures: Israel had lowered its alert level on the northern border
prior to the raid; it did not know that Hizbullah possessed
Chinese-made anti-ship missiles, one of which nearly sank an
Israeli missile boat off the coast of Beirut; it was caught off
guard by the fierce resistance it encountered in the two Lebanese
villages it has so far attempted to capture. Such failures are
surprising and discouraging, given that Israel has been tracking
and fighting Hizbullah for nearly a quarter-century…..
“(Regarding Qana), yes, Hizbullah bears ultimate responsibility
here for deliberately placing its military assets among civilians.
Yet the death of those children should be counted as a crime if
Israel’s purposes in Lebanon are basically feckless. A line being
bandied about in Israeli security circles is that the purpose of the
bombing is to show Hizbullah that ‘the boss-man has gone
berserk.’ What kind of goal is that? Nobody in this conflict ever
doubted Israel’s ability to set Lebanon back 20, 50 or 500 years
(about where Hizbullah itself wants the country to be).
“The goal, rather, is to ensure that Hizbullah will never again be
in a position to spark a similar crisis, and to do so with maximum
effect in the shortest possible time. Israeli Chief of Staff Dan
Halutz warned two weeks ago that Hizbullah wants a long war:
‘They realize that prolonged attrition causes internal pressure
from Israeli citizens and international pressure, and think those
are our weak points.’ That’s right, which makes his three-week
bombing campaign puzzling.”
Ralph Peters / New York Post, Aug. 1, 2006
“The airstrike on the Lebanese village of Qana has been a
tragedy for Israel. A publicity debacle, the deaths of 57 civilians
[ed. since lowered to 28 with 13 missing by Human Rights
Watch] united Israel’s enemies, complicated American support –
and may lead to a ceasefire that rewards Hizbullah….
“Anxious to hurt Hizbullah, a chain of command grown tired and
careless ended up harming Israel terribly.
“The consequences are grave. At Qana, Israel lost the
information war beyond all hope of recovery. It’s losing the war
on the ground, too. After ill-judged claims a week ago that the
Israeli Defense Forces had eliminated 40% of Hizbullah’s
military capability, more rockets rained down on Israel last
Sunday than on any previous day of the conflict….
“Our support for Israel has always been costly to our foreign
policy, yet it was justified on several grounds: morally
imperative backing for a Jewish homeland after the Holocaust,
moral and practical support for a fellow rule-of-law democracy
and the knowledge that Israel would fight to win.
“But Israel isn’t fighting to win this time: It’s been tossing
bombs and hoping for a miracle….
“The problem isn’t Israel’s people – who overwhelmingly
support the effort to destroy Hizbullah. And the IDF knows how
to do the job. But the Olmert government seems terrified of
finishing what it started. Now, with global cries for a ceasefire,
it may be too late. This may be the first ‘shooting war’ Israel
losses.”
Ralph Peters / New York Post, Aug. 3, 2006 [Peters was more
optimistic two days later as Israel launched its ground campaign.
He had other concerns, however.]
“Meanwhile, dangers loom on the diplomatic front. Our
secretary of state performed splendidly in the first weeks of the
war, defending Israel as the victim of terror. But Condoleezza
Rice’s brutal schedule is wearing her down: Her recent statement
that a ceasefire could come in a matter of days was a gift to our
mutual enemies.
“We wouldn’t want Israel – or anybody – shoving a timetable for
Iraq down our throats. All timetables and deadlines only
encourage our enemies to resist, to hang on, to hope. Statements
conflicted within the Israeli government, too, with some voices
guessing the war will last another week or two, while others
speak of months.
“My best advice to Israel: Everybody just shut up. Fight. Win
the damned war. Then talk.”
Brent Scowcroft / Washington Post, July 30, 2006
“It is even possible that a comprehensive settlement might help
stabilize Iraq. A chastened Iran, bereft of the ‘Israeli card,’
might be more willing to reach a modus vivendi with the Sunnis
and Kurds in Iraq, and with the United States as well. All
countries in the region – not to mention Iraq itself – need a
stable, prosperous and peaceful Iraq. The road to achieving this
may well lead eastward from a Jerusalem shared peacefully by
Israelis and Palestinians.
“This latest in a seemingly endless series of conflagrations in the
region just may present a unique opportunity to change the
situation in the Middle East for the better for all time. Let us not
shrink from the task.”
Christopher Hitchens / Wall Street Journal, Aug. 3, 2006
“It is only when one has reviewed (the interlocking elements of
the crisis) that one fully appreciates the extreme unwisdom of the
Bush administration in having allowed if not encouraged the
Olmert government to pursue a policy of wide retaliation across
Lebanon….
“The outcome is so astoundingly awful that it has taken weeks to
sink in. Iran hands out missiles to a theocratic gang that was
until recently mounting pro-Syrian demonstrations in Beirut, all
the while spitting in the face of the UN, the U.S. and the EU on
the nuclear issue – and is subjected to precisely no consequences.
Syria openly parades the leader of Hamas in a Damascus hotel,
while accepting Iranian largesse (and incidentally proving once
again that ‘secular’ Baathists can indeed collude full-time with
religious fundamentalists), sends its death-squads to murder
Lebanese politicians and journalists – and is subjected to
precisely no consequences. Syria and Iran send sophisticated
explosives for the use of Shiite sectarians in Iraq, who employ
them to murder American soldiers and Sunni civilians – and are
subjected to precisely no consequences. While all the time,
because of its arming and encouraging of Israel, the otherwise
passive United States is regarded with as much hatred and fury as
if it had in fact tried to remove Assad and Ahmadinejad from
power!
“To suffer all the consequences of being imperialistic, while
acting with all the resolution and consistency and authority of,
say, Belgium, is to have failed rather badly.”
Philip H. Gordon and Kenneth M. Pollack / Wall Street Journal,
Aug. 3, 2006
“The administration’s determination to give Israel time to
destroy the Hizbullah military infrastructure is understandable
but mistaken. Because Israel’s military operations cannot
destroy Hizbullah without destroying Lebanon in the process,
time plays to Tehran’s advantage. There is a battle between the
U.S. and Iran to see who will appear more reasonable to the
world. If Iran seems more reasonable on Lebanon, it will
weaken the international consensus to stop its nuclear program.
So a U.S. initiative to stop the violence should include more than
just a ceasefire: It should also include a major program to train
and equip the Lebanese military so it can eventually disarm
Hizbullah; massive economic assistance to Lebanon to win
popular support for such an effort; encouragement of Israel to
discuss all issues of concern with the Lebanese government; and
an international force that can help the Lebanese armed forces
establish a buffer zone along the border until the Lebanese are
ready to handle the mission on their own.
“In addition, the administration should use this opportunity to
pursue a multilateral approach to Damascus, designed to force it
to choose between its ties to Hizbullah and Iran, and its desire for
reintegration into the global community. In return for Syrian
assistance in shutting down supply routes to Hizbullah, the West
should offer Syria two paths: One would entail its giving up its
WMD programs and support for terrorist groups, in return for
peace negotiations leading to economic assistance and political
rapprochement; the other would mean ever greater economic and
political isolation.
“Meanwhile, the U.S., together with the Europeans, Russians and
Chinese, must refuse to allow Tehran to use the Lebanon crisis as
a way of avoiding sanctions over its nuclear program. The 14-1
Security Council vote on Monday, insisting that Iran suspend its
nuclear activities and react positively to the West’s nuclear offer
was an encouraging sign, but it must be followed up by a
determination to stand firm regardless of Lebanon. It might help
to point out that if a primary reason for the U.S. or Israel to resist
the temptation to use military force against Iranian nuclear sites
was the risk that Iran would turn Hizbullah loose on Israel, that
disincentive is now noticeably absent.
“Even as we cope with the more immediate aspects of the current
crisis, the long-term goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a
nuclear-enrichment capability must not be forgotten.”
For its part, Iran was more vocal than usual this week and, again,
it’s important to understand just what its people and the regime’s
followers are reading, understanding they are seldom receiving
the other side of the debate.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei / Tehran Times,
Aug. 2, 2006
“The events in Lebanon have exposed the true nature of
American human rights and have revealed the kind of Middle
East the U.S. government intends to have.
“Today it has become clear to all that the attack on Lebanon was
premeditated and part of a joint U.S.-Zionist stratagem and is a
major step toward domination of the Middle East and the Islamic
world.
“Bush and his American cohorts share the same degree of guilt in
the disasters brought upon Lebanon as the evil and wicked
Zionist regime. And the silence of the United Nations and many
of the Western governments and above all the support by some
governments, such as the notorious British government, make
them accountable and partners in crime in varying degrees in the
contemporary and future judgment of humanity and on the day of
reckoning and the divine judgment day.
“More than ever before the Muslim nations loathe America.
Their governments, even those that are constrained because of
political considerations, loathe and oppose the U.S. government
because of so many outrageous and arrogant aggressions. The
U.S. regime must expect a hard slap on the face and the crushing
fist of the Muslim ummah because of its support for the crimes
and the Zionist criminals and its blatant violation of the rights of
Muslim nations.”
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad / AP, Aug. 3, 2006
[Speaking to an ‘emergency’ meeting of Muslim leaders in
Malaysia.]
“Although the main solution is for the elimination of the Zionist
regime, at this stage an immediate ceasefire must be
implemented….(The Middle East would be better off) without
the existence of the Zionist regime….(Israel) is an illegitimate
regime, there is no legal basis for its existence.”
Ahmadinejad added, “Today the Americans are after the greater
Middle East. The Zionist regime is used to reach this objective.
The sole existence of this regime is for invasion and attack.”
—
The week started with the bombing at Qana, one that Jordan’s
King Abdullah called “criminal aggression” on the part of Israel,
an “ugly massacre” in the words of UAE leadership, and an
“unjustifiable action,” by French President Jacques Chirac.
Israel admitted almost immediately Qana was a major mistake,
but just as in the case of the United States, the conduct of the war
in Iraq, and episodes like Abu Ghraib and Haditha, Israel has to
be virtually perfect. I can’t repeat this enough, as much as it
infuriates some. It’s the way of today’s world and one also can’t
underestimate the power of having every Arab television (and
those in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia as well) tuned
into the coverage, almost every second of it biased.
According to the first poll conducted in Lebanon, 80% of the
people now support Hizbullah. As much as you might want to
believe that is merely an emotional reflex and that a year from
now the figure will be nowhere near that level, it could actually
go higher.
It doesn’t help when the spokesmen that Israel puts forward, such
as Ambassador to the U.S. Daniel Ayalon and UN Ambassador
Dan Gillerman, often treat us as idiots.
When an incident like Qana occurs, for Gillerman to say “I
wouldn’t be surprised it if wasn’t timed for Sec. Rice’s trip,”
when it was Israel that fired the missile, is absurd. In the words
of Ralph Peters, sometimes it’s best just to “shut up.”
So you might be thinking, well what of Hizbullah’s rocket
attacks that killed 8 Israeli civilians on Thursday alone?
Israel can’t continue to play tit-for-tat. It will lose in the long run
and you will see more Jewish targets taken out, worldwide, such
as the bombing decades ago in Buenos Aires that killed over 80.
I’m frustrated because I can’t imagine this all would have
happened under a Prime Minister Sharon, yet it’s not worth
anyone’s time to contemplate this further except for those writing
“What If?” books.
This war, at this particular point in time, could have been
avoided had the U.S., France, and the UN supported the elected
Lebanese government, beginning May 2005, and insisted on the
implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 that
called for the disarmament of Hizbullah. History will not be
kind to them, but I’ve said enough about this in prior columns.
There is another important issue, however, that being the world
has yet to fully grasp the environmental disaster taking place in
Lebanon. Last Sunday, The New York Times had a story on
Israel’s targeting of a major fuel depot with five of six tanks
going up in flames, spilling massive quantities of heavy fuel oil
into the Mediterranean. In just the first day, 10,000 tons, a
quarter of the entire Exxon Valdez disaster, flooded out.
Lebanon’s Daily Star reported on Wednesday that at least a third
of Lebanon’s coast was impacted and the fuel spill has reached
Syria.
As reported by Raed El Rafel:
“In an interview with the Associated Press, Environmental
Minister Yaacoub Sarraf said: ‘As long as there is no ceasefire
and as long as we don’t have access to the sea, not only can we
not start the treatment but we cannot even access or get the data
which is essential. Chances are our whole marine ecosystem
facing the Lebanese shoreline is already dead. What is at stake
today is all marine life in the Eastern Mediterranean.’”
A German expert has worried that the use of chemicals in
removing the slick would only cause further environmental
damage and could be more toxic to the environment than the
initial pollution. “Experts calculate that for every ton of fuel oil
cleaned by chemicals, an additional 10 tons of hazardous waste is
generated.”
Friends, this is but one example of the humanitarian and
environmental crisis in Lebanon. Yes, Hizbullah started this war
but imagine how the Arab media will cover ‘Israel poisoning
Lebanon’s coastal waters; fishing industry destroyed,’ etc., let
alone the fact that if the United States were to say this weekend
‘we want to help rebuild Lebanon,’ it would be truly laughable.
Lastly, I noted with interest the Israeli operation in Baalbek,
which is where I hired the driver to take me one day last spring.
When I told him to turn around and head back to Beirut after
reaching the town center, spooked out of my mind, I said to my
driver, Haitnam El chaar, once we were out of Baalbek, “I
probably shouldn’t have been there.” To which he replied “Your
government doesn’t want you here.” [WIR 5/7/05]
—
Iraq
You are going to have to forgive me, but as I have a lot of new
readers next week I’m going to summarize my stand on Iraq,
going back to the period before the war started. It’s been a
consistent position and if you think I’m going to disagree with
Sen. Hillary Clinton for her performance this week, it would be
hypocritical of me to do so considering the fact I called for Sec.
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation in 2003.
For today, though, I’ll just note that at a hearing of the Senate
Armed Services Committee, the top commander in the Middle
East, Gen. John Abizaid, said “Iraq could move toward civil
war,” further noting “the sectarian violence is probably as bad as
I have seen it.”
Anyone with half a brain has known this for some time now, but
it took our military leaders until today to publicly state the
obvious.
And so much for Senator John McCain’s presidential run. I
admire this man and would vote for him myself, but he took a
stand in 2003 that we needed more troops in Iraq, they weren’t
forthcoming, and now he can do little more than point out what
abject fools some of our commanders on the ground have been,
let alone, by inference, the commander-in-chief.
But for now, the only other item I’ll mention is the uncovering of
further examples of massive corruption in the reconstruction
effort. Every American, especially those with sons and
daughters in the field, should be sick to the core over this.
Whether it is the State Department agency that has played a shell
game with its $1.4 billion budget, constantly hiding the facts, and
funds, from Congress and the government’s auditing arm (which
finally uncovered it), or the $4 to $5 billion that has lined the
pockets of officials in the Iraqi government, as reported by Yochi
J. Dreazen in The Wall Street Journal.
And nice anti-America / anti-Israel parade in Baghdad on
Friday; at least 50,000 strong.
Iran
The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1696 requiring Iran
to suspend its nuclear enrichment program by August 31 or face
possible sanctions, but the effort was watered down
considerably. In the words of Vitaly Churkin, the Russian
ambassador to the UN, it was “crucial that any additional
measures that could be required (sanctions), rule out the use of
military force,” while China’s deputy ambassador insisted
“dialogue and negotiations are the only way out” of the impasse.
[Financial Times]
So from the political desk of the Tehran Times, we have this:
“Now, Iranians’ questions for the five major nuclear powers and
other Security Council members (except Qatar, ed. the lone
dissenter in a 14-1 vote) are: Is it not the Security Council’s
responsibility to maintain world peace? Has the nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty died so that the Security Council is worried
about international peace while Iran is in compliance with the
treaty? Is the silence of the Security Council over Israel’s brutal
slaughter of hundreds of Lebanese and Palestinian women and
children a response to these questions? Should the regime that is
free to produce nuclear weapons also be free to butcher
children?”
This is what we’re up against. Two weeks ago it was far easier
to say a defeat of Hizbullah was a defeat of Iran. But I’m of the
increasing opinion it’s too late and it’s hard to gauge at this point
just how painful for Hizbullah the taking out of Hasan Nasrallah
would be to the cause. Short-term, a huge victory no doubt, but
as we’ve learned with the killing of Zarqawi and all the others of
his ilk, the fundamentalist threat continues to reconstitute itself.
Lastly, a note on Afghanistan where NATO forces suffered
through a brutal week with at least seven killed after the U.S.
turned over the southern province containing Kandahar to NATO
command. 3 British soldiers were killed in one day and four
Canadians, bringing the latter’s death toll in Afghanistan to 21 by
most counts.
Here in the United States, it’s easy to note the weakness of the
Canadian military, as I have myself on more than one occasion
over the years, but Americans need to recognize the sacrifice our
good neighbors have made in the Afghan war. I was surprised to
see this week that the latest poll in Canada still showed a slight
majority, 50-46, supporting the deployment there. Remember
Canada’s contribution the next time you hear their anthem at a
sporting event.
Wall Street
Stocks finished narrowly mixed, once again largely dismissing
the widening tensions in the Middle East because the fighting
between Israel and Lebanon doesn’t directly involve the flow of
oil. Instead the market is fixated on the Federal Reserve and an
important decision it will be making on interest rates this coming
Tuesday.
Due to an unexciting employment report for the month of July,
with the U.S. economy adding all of 113,000 jobs, the experts are
saying it’s a lock the Fed will finally ‘pause’ after 17 straight rate
increases because the evidence clearly speaks to a slowdown.
Some of the manufacturing data released this week was actually
pretty solid, and we got out of the heat by hitting the malls, as
some retailers reported, but we’ve learned in past weeks the days
of 5.6% growth, as in the first quarter, are long gone.
As for inflation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier expressed
confidence that any price pressures would abate as the overall
economy slowed so there’s further ammunition for the ‘pause’
camp. This week offered classic evidence of Bernanke’s stance
in the form of Procter & Gamble’s earnings report. The
company said it was able to raise prices on selected items
recently, but it wasn’t confident it would be able to continue to
do so in the future.
And while some retailers like Wal-Mart and Target reported July
same-store sales that were up in the 2.5-3% range, not exactly
“lights out,” there were also growing signs $3 a gallon gas was
hitting restaurant chains in the form of lighter checks.
Otherwise, as I’ve taken up more than enough space the past few
reviews with general economic commentary, I’ll pause myself
until next time.
However, I just want to touch on two items. The latest Goldman
Sachs Confidence Index, which is based on CEO assessments of
business conditions, declined dramatically. As the director of the
survey said, “Chief executives appear more concerned about
economic uncertainty than at any time in recent quarters.”
The crisis in the Middle East isn’t helping either, though this
isn’t necessarily being reflected in the data as yet. Seeing as it’s
my theory it will, and that this directly impacts capital spending
at some point, it’s just another reason to be concerned about
future corporate earnings.
And I was perusing the September issue of The Atlantic
Monthly and spotted a piece by Clive Crook titled “The Height
of Inequality: America’s productivity gains have gone to giant
salaries for just a few.”
Two brief excerpts:
“Lately economists have been using new data to look more
closely within the top decile of American incomes. What
they’ve found is startling. Here are some results from Ian Dew-
Becker and Robert Gordon of Northwestern University.
Between 1966 and 2001, median wage and salary income
increased by just 11 percent, after inflation. Income at the 90th
percentile (six minutes from the end of the hour-long parade)
increased nearly six times as much – by 58 percent. At the 99th
percentile (the last thirty-six seconds), the rise was 121 percent.
At the 99.9th percentile (3.6 seconds before the end), it was 236
percent. And at the 99.99th percentile (0.36 seconds,
representing the 13,000 highest-paid workers in the American
economy), the rise was 617 percent.
“That is worth repeating: Over 35 years, the rise in wages and
salaries in the wide middle of the income distribution was 11
percent. The rise in wages and salaries at the top of the income
distribution was 617 percent….
“This is quite disturbing. Historically, rising productivity has
been a tide that lifted nearly all boats. For more than twenty
years during the long surge of productivity growth that followed
the Second World War, median incomes in the United States rose
as quickly as the highest incomes. This came to be regarded as
normal – and, seen from a global vantage point, it still is. The
dispersed benefits of high aggregate productivity are the reason
why jobs of almost every kind pay better in rich countries than in
poor ones….
“Such extreme skewness is new. It suggests that a huge
proportion of the economy’s productivity gains are neither being
passed on to consumers through lower prices – which would
have the effect of raising real incomes very broadly – nor being
distributed to investors as profit, nor even being used to raise the
wages of most employees in industries seeing rapid productivity
growth. Rather, they’re being diverted to a comparative handful
of employees.”
So…is it any wonder that yet another poll, this one from the Los
Angeles Times and Bloomberg News, once again shows a vast
majority, by a 59/34 margin, disapproving of President Bush’s
handling of the economy. How you rectify this disconnect
without worshipping at the feet of Karl Marx is anyone’s guess.
But as I’ll discuss further below, there’s no shortage of evidence
that America’s elite are largely a bunch of pigs.
Street Bytes
–For the week the Dow Jones rose just 0.2% to 11240, the S&P
500 added a whopping point, and Nasdaq finished down 0.4% to
2085. The market gave up a 100-point rally on the Dow
following the employment report on Friday as Mr. Trader
realized, hey, maybe slow growth really does impact earnings, at
least versus already lofty expectations.
–U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 5.14% 2-yr. 4.91% 10-yr. 4.90% 30-yr. 4.99%
Bonds, on the other hand, loved the jobs data and the feeling the
Fed was finished. Even if Bernanke and Co. were to hike one
more time and add the statement “that’s all, folks” I can’t
imagine bonds giving up much of the gains. And the rally
occurred in the face of rate hikes by the Bank of England (a
surprise), the European Central Bank (not a surprise) and
Australia (Aussie Aussie Aussie!……………..this is what you
write when you forgot if the move was a surprise or not).
–Asian automakers now make up a record 41.4% of the U.S.
market, with Toyota at #2 for the first time, trailing only General
Motors.
For July, Ford and DaimlerChrysler’s sales were off 34% and
GM’s down 23% as all three continue to suffer on the light
truck/SUV front. Toyota’s, though, were up 12% and Honda’s
6%. Incidentally, also for the first time ever, Japan produced
more cars overseas than in Japan for the year ended 3/31.
And as if Ford didn’t already have enough problems, it recalled
1.2 million trucks and SUVs because of a problem with the
cruise control that could lead to engine fires….normally not a
good thing, unless you want to junk the car for insurance
purposes.
–China’s government continues to struggle in its efforts to rein
in its white-hot economy. As Morgan Stanley’s chief economist
Stephen Roach told Bloomberg News, “China’s unbalanced
growth model has now gone to excess and seems in danger of
veering out of control. The longer China’s economic boom runs,
the tougher it will be to avoid a more treacherous endgame.”
Eventually that spells collapsing asset values, defaults and, yes,
deflation.
And to give you an example of the kinds of projects China has
been funding when you read of 20-30% increases in capital
investment, a terminal at Beijing’s airport will be bigger than all
five terminals at London’s Heathrow Airport combined.
Of course Chinese officials are scared to death of unrest during
any slowdown, while Asia’s other export dependent countries
would suffer tremendously as well, along with basically the rest
of the world these days.
–Meanwhile, China continues to grapple with its exploding
pollution problem due to hyper-growth. Because of its
dependence on coal for energy, sulfur dioxide emissions are up
27% since 2000. Over half of 696 cities and counties monitored
by the government experience acid rain.
–But one area where the government is having some early
success is in reining in the property market. Last week Shanghai
real estate fell 10%, in seven days, after authorities announced
they would enforce a 20% capital gains tax (to discourage
speculators) as well as limiting foreign investment (often further
speculators). Prices in Guangzhou fell at least 5%.
–Speaking of real estate I was reading a piece in U.S. News &
World Report on metro areas and the highest percentages of
interest-only mortgages and I assumed the top spots were in
California….wrong. Try Boulder-Longmont, Co., with 49.5% of
all mortgages being of the I-O kind. Denver is next at 47.9%.
[San Francisco is #5 at 45.7%, San Diego #7, Santa Barbara-
Santa Maria #8, and San Jose #9.]
–Both the House and Senate have approved bills to open up
millions of acres in the central Gulf of Mexico to oil and gas
drilling, but the House bill goes farther and efforts to reconcile
the two will be tough.
But I get a kick out of critics who say it will be years before any
oil or gas finds its way into the system. We said the same thing
over ten years ago with regards to the Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge. It would have been flowing by now, sports fans, and
you have to start somewhere, for crying out loud.
–Offshore drilling, by the way, is even more critical when you
read of stories such as in Mexico where crude-oil production at
its biggest field, Cantarell, is falling precipitously…from 1.92
million barrels in January to just 1.74 million in June. Cantarell,
the second-biggest in the world next to Ghawar in Saudi Arabia,
also accounts for over half of overall production in Mexico, a
nation that is one of the top three suppliers to the U.S. Pemex,
Mexico’s state oil company, says new techniques will eventually
increase production but some of us have heard this story before.
–On the topic of oil, though, here’s the latest out of Russia, as
reported by Andrei Makhovsky and Darius James Ross of
Reuters:
“Russia is keeping Belarus well supplied with crude oil even
though it shares a pipeline with Lithuania, which Moscow has
cut off, after citing a leak, officials in Belarus said Thursday.
“Their comments may add to speculation that Russian pipeline
monopoly Transneft used this weekend’s minor leak as a pretext
to cut flows to Lithuania as punishment for choosing a Polish
buyer for its Mazeikiu refinery over Russian bidders….
“Oil officials in Belarus said the Naftan refinery was receiving
full volumes of Russian oil through a spur of the Druzhba
pipeline that continues to Lithuania.
“Lithuanian oil officials said Moscow had given no clear
indication of when their supplies would resume.”
Ah yes, energy security and the games the Kremlin plays.
–Did you know Exxon Mobil gets 30% of its production from
Africa these days? I didn’t. [Business Week]
–Wall Street is losing initial public offerings of stock at a rapid
pace and while some blame costs associated with complying with
Sarbanes-Oxley, The Wall Street Journal’s Alan Murray
certainly hit on another big reason why business is going
elsewhere…fees. Wall Street’s investment banks charge an
outrageous 6.5% to 7%, while in Europe it’s generally 3% to 4%
and even lower in Asia.
–On a related topic we have the ongoing story of the private-
equity deals that have been whipping around Wall Street at light
speed. When the KKR’s of the world turn around and bring the
companies public, such as in the case of Burger King, the amount
the bankers and venture capitalists have stripped out is appalling.
In the case of BK, the Journal reports $30 million was paid out to
Texas Pacific Group, the private-equity arm of Goldman Sachs
Group and Bain Capital as a termination fee.
–But wait, there’s more! A U.S. Senate report claims the
superrich have evaded as much as $70 billion a year in taxes
through use of offshore accounts and tax shelters. Senator Carl
Levin of Michigan said “The universe of offshore tax cheating
has become so large that no one, not even the United States
government, could go after all of it.” Most of these scams
involve generating billions of dollars of fake capital losses.
–And then there’s this. In the ongoing stock options scandal,
that paragon of virtue (NOT!), Computer Associates, admitted to
backdating options for its highest executives which resulted in
$342 million in pre-tax profits from 1996-2006 that really
weren’t; this on top of the $2.2 billion CA is already responsible
for in its massive accounting fraud probe for which former CEO
Sanjay Kumar will be serving jail time.
Then you have Apple Computer, which also warned that it will
have to restate earnings going back to 2002 because of options
chicanery just uncovered. Initially, Apple shares were whacked
but made back most of the losses by the close on Friday.
I wonder if the Journal’s Holman Jenkins Jr. will continue
defending the backdating of options practice, at least in those
cases where it was hidden from shareholders? When are
defenders going to recognize it was out-and-out fraud?
–So with all of the above – exorbitant fees for Wall Street’s elite,
the superrich evading $billions in taxes, or executives treating
corporations as a personal piggybank – no wonder Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson, himself one of the superrich, had to
concede in his first major speech that there is a growing problem
in this country over the issue of income inequality.
–It’s really sad just how far Eastman Kodak has fallen,
especially for the city of Rochester, N.Y. Kodak, in reporting a
loss for the second quarter as part of its ongoing restructuring
efforts, announced it is laying off an additional 2,000 employees
for a total of 27,000.
–Merck’s record in Vioxx trials is now a solid 5-3, which these
days in baseball would earn an otherwise journeyman pitcher a
3-year, $9 million deal….but I digress. A California jury cleared
the drug maker of liability in another heart attack case. Merck
continues to maintain it will fight each one, of which on paper
there are still some 14,000.
–I must say I didn’t realize 20% of all “conflict diamonds” from
places such as Sierra Leone and the Congo find their way to
Lebanon before ending up in Antwerp, Belgium, the diamond
capital of the world. Industry experts say Hizbullah earned as
much as $100 million through the trade. Obviously this has been
severely interrupted with the war. [Paul Tharp / New York Post]
–AOL is scrapping fees for broadband users to encourage them
to keep their AOL.com e-mail addresses and use other AOL
software as the company hopes to make up any losses through
increased advertising revenue. In addition the company is laying
off 5,000, a quarter of its global workforce, as a result of de-
emphasizing its dial-up operation.
To stop paying for AOL services, however, you have to call
customer service directly at 888-265-8008. Operators are
standing by. [I still have an AOL dial-up account for my
travels…but this doesn’t make me a bad person.]
–I’m shocked! BetonSports, the Internet gaming company at the
center of a criminal investigation, allegedly has ties to the
Bonanno crime family of New York.
[fyi…. “Yes, we have no Bonannos” was written in 1923 by
Frank Silver and Irving Cohn….or was it “bananas”…]
–Inflation Watch: College tuition at 4-year schools in New
Jersey is going up an average of 9.3%.
–Deflation Watch: Baghdad’s stock market is off about 30% this
year.
–Good news for those of us living in the shadow of Lucent’s
headquarters in Murray Hill, N.J. It will be the North American
headquarters for the combined Lucent / Alcatel operation, so
local merchants should be breathing a sigh of relief, along with
realtors. I also expect the condition of the lawn to improve.
–Shares in Starbucks were hit this week on word July same-store
sales were weaker than expected. Starbucks blamed long lines
for its cold drinks, a convenient excuse some would say. Others
offer it has to do with $3 gas and consumers’ cutting back some.
But one thing is for sure, CEO Howard Schultz is one arrogant
jerk; at least that was my take during his appearance on CNBC
the other day.
[After the above comment the phrase “you’ll never drink coffee
again in this town” is probably apt in my case.]
–Finally, Foster’s Beer has decided to drop its U.S. television
advertising budget in favor of Internet ads. Foster’s is also
introducing a new slogan, “Crack open a friendly,” a play on
“Australians’ approachable image, (suggesting) that Foster’s
drinkers are friendly people” according to one advertising
executive. [Aaron O. Patrick / Wall Street Journal] I’ve found
Rolling Rock drinkers to be friendly, too.
Foreign Affairs
Cuba: What does Washington have to show for its own hard-line
policy of the past 47 years? Zippo. It’s not like it’s easy for
Americans to head down there to attend classic car shows, either.
I just don’t want another Mariel boatlift when Fidel finally exits
stage left, while at the same time I admit it would be worrisome
if brother Raul further strengthens the relationship with
Venezuela’s Chavez.
Venezuela: Speaking of Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president
has been on a world tour (you can probably pick up a spiffy
jacket on chavezisanutcase.com) and while in Vietnam told his
audience:
“Vietnam was able to defeat (U.S.) imperialism not only with its
army, but with socialism as an ideological form of battle. The
spirit of independence that Simon Bolivar carried was reborn in
the form of Ho Chi Minh.” [Santiago Times]
In Tehran, Chavez said:
“(President) Bush claims that he has a connection with God
every day, but, in fact, he has a connection with the devil because
no other country has put humanity in danger like the United
States.” [Tehran Times]
Yup, that Hugo is a veritable Shecky Greene.
Mexico: The electoral court here has until Sept. 6 to resolve the
July 2 election result that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
continues to pursue. Last Sunday an estimated 1.2 million
crammed Mexico City to hear his call for civil disobedience in
order to “defend democracy” and force the recognition of “my
triumph as president.”
“Mexico does not deserve to be governed by an illegitimate
president,” Lopez Obrador added. [James C. McKinley Jr. / New
York Times]
And in keeping with the civil disobedience call, hundreds of
leftists attempted to disrupt trading on the Mexico Stock
Exchange Thursday but were unsuccessful in doing so. Lopez
Obrador, though, said no further massive demonstrations were
planned until the court rules.
Ukraine: President Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of 2004’s
Orange Revolution, had to bite the bullet and accept rival Viktor
Yanukovich as prime minister after over four months of political
chaos following the March 26 election. The two will now share
power with Yanukovich, Moscow’s erstwhile butt-boy,
supposedly agreeing to help promote Yushchenko’s West-
leaning agenda including NATO membership.
This will be interesting. Recall that Ukraine is split 50/50 on
favoring the East or West. The big loser is former prime minister
and coalition partner Yulia Tymoshenko, whose party had
finished 2nd and ahead of Yushchenko’s in the March vote.
Yushchenko had the option of dissolving parliament but this
would have meant new elections and further turmoil.
North Korea: 10,000 are feared dead from the Hermit Kingdom’s
worst floods in a century. Having seen firsthand some of the
deforestation that has taken place here during my recent trip to
the border (natives cut down the trees for fuel and eat the bark),
it’s easy to imagine the flooding that occurred as rainwater
rushed down the hillsides. Additionally, shots were exchanged
across the DMZ for the first time since October, though no one
was hurt.
But experts are also trying to figure out why Pyongyang appears
to have moved a long-range missile from the launch site used on
July 5 (July 4 in the States) when the commies test-fired seven
missiles of varying sophistication. It’s possible Kim Jong-il
didn’t want to provoke further condemnation at this time.
Russia: President Vladimir Putin signed a law making criticism
of a public official a crime; so much for debate. Russian officials
also face fines if they say “dollar” when “ruble” could have been
used.
Bangladesh: Al Qaeda-types are always looking for a new home,
whether it’s a return engagement in Somalia or here. According
to Selig S. Harrison, writing in the Washington Post, the
fundamentalist group Jamaat-e-Islami is a coalition partner of the
ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party and has been infiltrating key
posts in government, including the military and security
apparatus.
Jamaat also has “15,000 hard-core fighters operating out of 19
known base camps.” Jamaat and its allies were the ones
responsible for 459 synchronized explosions across the country
last Aug. 17. When leadership was arrested, “they were kept by
the police in a comfortable apartment, where they were free to
receive visitors.” It’s back to business as usual for the terrorists.
Haiti: I can’t say I have any immediate plans to travel here, but
any thoughts you may have of visiting need to be put on hold as
well. According to James Gordon Meek in the New York Daily
News, at least 80 Americans have been kidnapped in Haiti over
just the past year, including four that were killed by gangs
seeking ransom payoffs.
Australia: Prime Minister John Howard announced he will seek a
5th term. I’ll quaff a Foster’s to that.
Random Musings
–A recent Pew Research Center survey asked Muslims in
European, Asian, and African countries, “Did Arabs carry out the
9/11 attacks?” A sampling, as posted in The Atlantic Monthly:
European Muslims
Britain…56% No…17% Yes
France…46% No…48% Yes
Asian and African Muslims
Indonesia…65% No…16% Yes
Egypt…59% No…32% Yes
Turkey…59% No…16% Yes
Pakistan…41% No…15% Yes
Among the many conclusions you can reach is the fact Britain
truly has a problem of major proportions, as its own intelligence
officials understand.
–British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave a major speech on the
war on terror in Los Angeles (excerpts of which I’ll post on my
“Hott Spotts” link by this coming Tuesday….as well as some
important remarks by Senator Chuck Hagel on the Middle East).
Blair essentially admitted that the use of military force alone
isn’t working, while discussing an “arc of extremism” stretching
across the Middle East and beyond that called for an “alliance of
moderation to paint a different future in which Muslim and
Christian, Arab and Westerner, wealthy and developing nations
can make progress in peace and harmony with each other.”
Rather idealistic.
Commenting in The Times (of London), Matthew Parris offers
the following:
“More has been written on the relationship between Britain and
America in the past couple of years than in the two decades that
went before. This newspaper has taken a strong and consistent
editorial line: that anti-Americanism in Britain has grown, is
dangerous and ought to stop. Meanwhile, many, including me,
have found our opinion slipping unnoticed into the chasm
between those who rail against Washington and those who rail
against the railers.
“Our opinion is simply expressed. It is that George W. Bush is
not America. We see danger in conflating one rogue U.S.
president with the personality and the ideals of a whole great
nation.
“Muscle can remake friends as fast as it loses them. If after the
present interlude the United States were to resume her ancient,
humane, rule-based internationalism, it would not be long before
she became leader of the gang in the Free World again. But
Britain’s delicate network of friendships abroad – more reliant on
respect than muscle – will be harder to repair. The United
Kingdom has minimal real power in the world; but we have
attracted (though we should not exaggerate this) a little useful
influence, based more on respect than awe. Respect will be more
difficult to rebuild because, while America has made herself
feared, we have been making ourselves contemptible.”
[See Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments above.]
–A poll for the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News shows
that Democratic congressional candidates are favored over
Republicans, 48/37. [This is actually narrowing.] President
Bush has a 40% overall job approval in the same survey, while
by a 53/37 margin people disapprove of the president’s handling
of the immigration issue.
–Tuesday’s primary vote in Connecticut will certainly be
interesting as the last poll I saw had Sen. Joe Lieberman trailing
by a staggering 13 points. I still can’t understand how any state
can hold a primary in August, the prime vacation month in this
nation. Of course activists set the schedule and it’s activists who
vote….while taking their vacations in July.
–Floyd Landis failed his second drug test, giving Mennonites a
bad name.
–I look at temperatures around the world every day and you
can’t help but notice that it’s a constant 115 degrees in Baghdad
in the summertime. It’s easy for the rest of us to complain
during heat waves like the one that has been enveloping the U.S.,
but remember our soldiers with all they have to deal with (and
wear).
–While the heat wave was intense, and as much as I’m a global
warming proponent, this stuff does happen in the summer, after
all. But I think where scientists have their best case is in talking
about night-time temperatures. They’re sky high. Those cool
summer nights almost seem like a thing of the past, at least in the
sweat glands of this reporter. And I saw where mid-winter temps
in South America are running a full 13 F. (7 C.) above normal in
Argentina, Chile and Brazil. That’s astounding.
–But this just in…. “Heavy snow has fallen on Johannesburg for
the first time in 25 years as South Africa faces some of its
harshest weather conditions in decades.” [The Times (of
London)]
Global cooling.
–Kenneth R. Weiss had a depressing story in the Los Angeles
Times on all the plastic that is being dumped in our oceans. A
few tidbits:
“Nearly 90% of floating marine litter is plastic…
“About four-fifths of marine trash comes from land, swept by
wind or washed by rain off highways and city streets, down
streams and rivers, and out to sea.
“The rest comes from ships…
“In addition, thousands of cargo containers fall overboard in
stormy seas each year, spilling their contents. One ship heading
from Los Angeles to Tacoma, Wash., disgorged 33,000 blue-
and-white Nike basketball shoes in 2002….
“The debris can spin for decades in one of a dozen or more
gigantic gyres around the globe, only to be spat out and carried
by currents to distant lands. The U.N. Environmental Program
estimates that 46,000 pieces of plastic litter are floating on every
square mile of the oceans. About 70% will eventually sink.”
[Good summer work program, eh?]
“An estimated 1 million seabirds choke or get tangled in plastic
nets or other debris every year. About 100,000 seals, sea lions,
whales, dolphins, other marine mammals and sea turtles suffer
the same fate….
[I don’t care about the sea lions.]
“The Los Angeles River carries enough trash each year to fill the
Rose Bowl two stories high, and despite efforts to corral some of
it near the river mouth, most slips through to the ocean.”
I want to go to Mars.
–By the way, if you feel like drinking some seawater because
you have no alternative, scientists now say one liter (2 frosty
pints) contains 20,000 different types of bacteria!!! Goodness
gracious. It had first been thought it was closer to 2,000. No
wonder plankton don’t grow up.
–I’m a little disturbed about the story of Barney the Doberman
pinscher who was supposed to be guarding a children’s museum
in England but proceeded instead to rip 100 stuffed animals to
shreds, including a teddy bear reportedly once belonging to
Elvis. Barney is being “retired to a farm where he can chase
chickens,” said a spokesman for the museum. What kind of
example does this set for other guard dogs? As if word won’t get
around.
–From the BBC:
“Delhi Metro authorities say they have employed a large black-
faced langur monkey to frighten away other monkeys who were
worrying passengers….
“Monkeys are considered sacred by Hindus and they usually
hang around tourist areas. The devout feed them bananas and
peanuts, but when not supplied with food, they attack people and
steal food.”
Fast-forward 50 years…….“Planet of the Apes.”
–And finally, Charles K. alerted me to a Guardian story
concerning the new railway that the Chinese government built
across the Himalayas to Tibet; what many are calling one of the
great feats of engineering.
Well it turns out the foundation in some parts is sinking into the
permafrost and just one month after opening it is facing cracks
and shifting sands.
But as the story goes there is another concern, that being “the
railway line’s planners have failed to cope with…the yak,
thousands of which graze along the tracks and sometimes wander
across them.”
No surprise here; your editor having long known the noble, yet
mangy yak was also a true train enthusiast.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless America.
—
Gold closed at $658
Oil, $74.76
Returns for the week 7/31-8/4
Dow Jones +0.2% [11240]
S&P 500 +0.1% [1279]
S&P MidCap +0.3%
Russell 2000 +0.2%
Nasdaq -0.4% [2085]
Returns for the period 1/1/06-8/4/06
Dow Jones +4.9%
S&P 500 +2.5%
S&P MidCap +0.7%
Russell 2000 +4.2%
Nasdaq -5.5%
Bulls 41.5
Bears 36.2 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a great week. I appreciate your support.
Brian Trumbore
