[Posted 10:00 AM, ET, Friday]
Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs, such as this new site, and your support is greatly appreciated. Please click on the GoFundMe link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.
Edition 1,367
President Trump scored a massive win on Thursday, with passage of his Big, Beautiful Bill in the House, as described below. He has wanted the package to be the defining moment in his second term, and perhaps his greatest achievement when the topic of his legacy comes up, years from now, long after he’s gone.
There is no doubt, this could greatly stimulate the U.S. economy, but it could also worsen our disastrous federal debt situation. It all remains to be seen, but for today, Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the others deserve to celebrate.
But whether he likes it or not, Trump’s legacy will also depend on what takes place in Ukraine. The president held a phone call Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump was blunt after. “I don’t think he’s (Putin’s) there…I don’t think he’s looking to stop.” And…. “I didn’t make any progress…at all.”
The Kremlin’s readout was basically, ‘We won’t stop fighting until the root causes are addressed,’ ‘root causes’ being code for, Vlad still wants the entire country. To prove it, either while the two were actually holding the call, or shortly thereafter, Moscow launched its largest attack of the war…550 drones and 11 missiles, much of which was directed at Kyiv, where at least 23 were injured amid massive property and infrastructure damage.
But the U.S. stopped the delivery of air-defense interceptors and other weapons intended for Ukraine. They’re being used to beef up Pentagon stocks instead, various administration officials said Wednesday. Withholding the weaponry is a new sign of Trump’s weakening support of Kyiv – and it couldn’t come at a worse time. The White House stressed the need to focus on China and the Middle East.
“This will hurt deterrence everywhere,” Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington said in an interview with Defense One. “The Ukrainians are not going to lose to Russia. But the absence of these munitions will mean more civilian deaths, more critical infrastructure damage and more military casualties for Ukraine. Far from pressuring Russia and holding Moscow accountable for its illegal and criminal attacks on Ukraine, (Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense and key adviser on policy) and the administration have consistently taken actions to weaken Ukraine while doing nothing to pressure the aggressor Russia.”
“This decision is a stain on America’s reputation and will weaken the credibility of U.S. security guarantees around the world,” added the retired U.S. Navy rear admiral.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “any delay or procrastination in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities would only encourage the aggressor to continue war and terror, rather than seek peace.”
—
The Big Beautiful Bill…as it all went down….
—The initial vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the Senate late Saturday night was 51-49, with most Republicans in favor and all Democrats opposed, in a key procedural vote to advance the bill. GOP Sens. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) broke with their party to vote against advancing the legislation.
A number of other Republican senators, such as Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, had been on the fence, calling for protecting clean-energy tax credits, while GOP Sens. Rick Scott (Fla.), Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Cynthia Lummis (Wy.), wanted deeper spending cuts. All then came on board.
The bill comprises permanent tax-cut extensions, new tax cuts, border and military spending along with spending reductions on Medicaid and nutrition assistance that represent Trump’s second-term priorities. Democrats oppose the bill, calling it a dangerous reduction of the social safety net combined with tax cuts for high-income households, while further exploding the deficit.
—Republicans are waving a $3.8 trillion magic wand over their tax-and-spending megabill, declaring that their extensions of expiring tax cuts have no effect on the federal budget.
To dodge the Senate filibuster rule, which typically requires 60 votes to advance legislation, Republicans used the fast-track reconciliation process, which forbids bills from increasing deficits beyond the 10-year window and needs only a simple majority.
Rather than use standard congressional accounting, Republicans are saying that extensions of tax cuts set to lapse Dec. 31 don’t count toward budget deficits the same way that new tax cuts do, because they are just continuing current policies. According to the Congressional Budget Office, that assumption turns the Senate’s bill from a $3.3 trillion deficit increase that can’t pass through reconciliation into a $508 billion deficit decrease that can.
“It does allow partisan lawmakers and other partisan voices to obscure the cost and to send that message directly to their base,” said Andrew Lautz, associate director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
The difference between the CBO’s $3.3 trillion deficit under the Senate bill, up from $2.4 billion for the House version, raised questions about the measure’s fate.
By 2034, the latest Senate bill would reduce the number of people with health insurance by 11.8 million, CBO said.
The revised bill would also cut off tax credits for electric vehicles, solar and wind projects more quickly than the initial Senate version, in a blow to companies hoping their Republican senators could do more to shield them from an effort to roll back spending on EVs and renewable energy. And it would impose a new excise tax related to the use of certain foreign components in renewable projects completed after 2027.
Elon Musk slammed the U.S. Senate’s latest version of President Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax bill Saturday, warning that the cuts to electric vehicle and other clean energy credits would be “incredibly destructive” to the country.
Musk posted on X about the bill, calling it “utterly insane and destructive [with] handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future,” Musk said. He called the Republican Party “the PORKY PIG PARTY!!”
A statement from the American Clean Power Association said the effect would be to “strand hundreds of billions of dollars in current investments.”
The bill would bring a quicker end to a popular $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles.
While the earlier proposal would have ended the incentive at the end of this year for most EV sales, the new version terminates the credit after Sept. 30. Tax credits for the purchase of used and commercial electric vehicles would end at the same time.
President Trump posted on Truth Social early Tuesday morning:
“Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous, and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!”
[Musk said he would form the “America Party,” to give the people a voice.]
The bill then cleared the Senate around noon on Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance needed to break a 50-50 tie to push it over the top…Republican Senators Rand Paul, Thom Tillis and Susan Collins of Maine joining Democrats to vote against it. Paul opposed the legislation’s $5 trillion debt limit and Tillis and Collins objected to Medicaid funding changes that could reduce coverage for millions of people and deliver less money to hospitals.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski was the final piece of the legislative puzzle, backing the bill after long discussions with Majority Leader John Thune and other GOP leaders. She pushed for changes that would soften the blow of the bill’s Medicaid and nutrition-assistance cuts on her state and for slower phaseouts of clean-energy tax credits.
Broadly, the bill is an attempt to squeeze as many of Trump’s priorities into one piece of legislation, including extending expiring tax cuts permanently at all income levels, while adding new tax cuts for tipped workers, overtime pay and factory construction.
The Senate package would roll back billions of dollars in green energy tax credits, which Democrats warn will wipe out wind and solar investments nationwide. It would impose $1.2 trillion in cuts, largely to Medicaid and food stamps, by imposing work requirements on able-bodied people, including some parents and older Americans, making sign-up eligibility more stringent and changing federal reimbursements to states.
Additionally, the bill would provide a $350 billion infusion for border and national security, including for deportations, and it directs hundreds of billions of dollars to national defense.
The focus then shifted to the House, and after an all-nighter, Wednesday into Thursday, the House approved the legislation by a 218-214 margin, Republican Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) voting ‘No.’
[For the record, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries took the floor at 4:53 a.m. on Thursday, using his ‘magic minute’ privilege, and spoke until 1:37 p.m., setting a record for the longest House speech.]
–Going back to Sen. Tillis, President Trump unloaded on him Saturday night on Truth Social:
“Looks like Senator Thom Tillis, as usual, wants to tell the Nation that he’s giving them a 68% Tax Increase*, as opposed to the Biggest Tax Cut in American History! At the same time, he is unable to understand the importance of the Debt Extension, which Republicans gave to the Democrats just prior to the November 5th Election, because of its significance, and how important it was for the future of the U.S.A….”
Trump went on and on….
“North Carolina will not allow one of their Senators to GRANDSTAND in order to get some publicity for himself, for a possible, but very difficult Re-Election. America wants Reduced Taxes, including NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, AND NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY, Interest Deductions on Cars, Border Security, a Strong Military, and a Bill which is GREAT for our Farmers, Manufacturers and, Employment, in general. Thom Tillis is making a BIG MISTAKE for America, and the Wonderful People of North Carolina!”
*The 68% figure the president (and now all Republicans) keeps using is absurd.
Tillis, in a speech on the Senate floor, said White House aides had failed to give Trump proper advice about the legislation’s Medicaid cuts.
“What do I tell 663,000 people in two years, three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off Medicaid because the funding’s not there anymore,” Tillis said, referring to his constituents.
Tillis then said he would not seek re-election next year, after Trump threatened to back a primary challenger in retribution for Tillis’ vote against the bill.
“As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term,” Tillis said in a statement. He said his choice was between “spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington” or spending that time with his family.
“It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election,” he said.
Tillis also said in the statement: “Too many elected officials are motivated by pure raw politics who don’t really give a damn about the people they promised to represent on the campaign trail,” he wrote.
He also offered praise for two former Democratic senators who became independents – Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona – who “refused to cave to their party bosses” to get rid of the filibuster. Both were roundly criticized by other Democrats, a reaction that Tillis called hypocritical. “When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer,” Tillis said. “But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize, and even censure them.”
On Sunday, Trump celebrated Tillis’ announcement as “Great News! And issued a warning to fellow Republicans who have concerns over the bill. “REMEMBER, you still have to get reelected. Don’t go too crazy!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“A common feature of Donald Trump’s two terms as President is that he can’t stand political prosperity. When events are going in his direction, he has an uncanny habit of handing his opponents a sword.
“The latest example came Sunday after GOP leaders dragged several holdouts across the line to vote aye and start debate over the Senate version of the budget reconciliation bill. The vote was 51-49, but Mr. Trump couldn’t leave victory alone.
“Instead he unloaded on the two GOP dissenters, Rand Paul of Kentucky and especially Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Mr. Trump dumped three different Truth Social posts on Mr. Tillis, calling him a sellout, a ‘talker and complainer’ and various other insults.
“He also all but promised to support a Republican opponent in the GOP primary for Senate in 2026, when Mr. Tillis’ term ends….
“Mr. Tillis promptly said he won’t run for re-election. Even if Mr. Tillis had already been contemplating retirement, his withdrawal opens a seat that is another pickup opportunity for Democrats next year.
“The GOP has a 53-47 majority now, but Susan Collins always has a tough race in Maine if she decides to run again. Democrats are targeting Joni Ernst in Iowa. In the suicide-isn’t-painless department, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Mr. Paxton may be the only Republican who could lose in Texas given his record harassing business with lawsuits, impeachment, and other embarrassments.
“The GOP pickup opportunities are few, so with Mr. Tillis’ departure the Senate is in play for 2026. Oh, and on Saturday GOP Rep. Don Bacon said he won’t run for re-election in his swing Omaha seat. That’s a likely gain for Democrats in the House.
“Messrs. Tillis and Bacon didn’t help themselves by echoing Democratic attacks against the GOP’s very modest Medicaid changes. But then Mr. Trump and GOP leaders haven’t helped them or the party by failing to make the moral and fiscal case for those reforms.
“GOP legislative reforms will have no chance if Democrats take the House in 2026. And if they also take the Senate, forget about confirming another Supreme Court nominee. The Trump Presidency would be dead in the water.”
–Weeks ago, I wrote of how the Republicans’ increase in spending on defense in their budget falls woefully short of what is needed, given today’s threats, and it’s illusory…in essence a one-year increase in spending. The following spells out the serious problem in detail.
Seth G. Jones / Wall Street Journal
“The U.S. may have averted war in the Middle East for now, but the international environment is growing more dangerous. In just over a week, Iran and Israel traded missile and drone strikes, U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran fired missiles at the American base in Qatar. Meanwhile, China is amassing significant military power, Russia continues to wage a brutal war in Ukraine, and Kim Jong Un has threatened to obliterate South Korea if provoked.
“The Trump administration’s defense budget is strikingly inadequate to meet the moment. The White House proposed a defense budget of $892.6 billion for fiscal 2026, which is a cut in real terms from the previous year. It highlighted the request as the first trillion-dollar defense budget, but that includes an additional $119.3 billion from the $150 billion one-time increase from Congress’ reconciliation bill now under consideration. According to Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, even with the bonus, the administration’s proposal would leave the U.S. with a defense budget of only 2.65% of gross domestic product by 2029.
“That share is lower than at any time during the Cold War. Even President Jimmy Carter, whom Ronald Reagan rightly criticized as weak on defense, had a higher defense budget than Mr. Trump’s, at between 4% and 5% of GDP. Over the course of the Cold War, the U.S. defense budget peaked at 14% during the Korean War. It then varied between roughly 9% and 11% during the Eisenhower administration, between roughly 8% and 9% during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, and generally above 6% during Reagan’s defense buildup in the 1980s.
“A defense budget of 3% is insufficient. As Mr. Wicker recently lamented, ‘What we have in front of us is an inadequate budget request with precious little detail and no follow-on data about fiscal years 2027, 2028 or 2029.’
“Today’s defense industrial base is woefully unprepared for a protracted conflict in Asia, Europe, the Middle East or a combination of all three. The U.S. is in danger of losing deterrence in Asia, where China’s defense industrial base is on a wartime footing. China is producing weapons at mass and scale, and in some categories it is outpacing America. Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned in April that ‘Beijing’s aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan are not just exercises – they are dress rehearsals for forced unification.’
“War games of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait continue to show that the U.S. runs out of long-range precision munitions, such as Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles, after a week of conflict. According to the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence, China has a military and commercial shipbuilding capacity that is 230 times as large as America’s. Beijing has enough capacity to build 23 million tons of vessels a year, compared with Washington’s capacity to build less than 100,000 tons.
“The solution is straightforward. The Trump administration needs to increase defense spending to 4% to 5% of GDP. America’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies this week committed to increase their defense spending on the military to 5% of their national income by 2035. It’s Washington’s turn to do the same….
“Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it best this June: ‘The Chinese Communist Party’s actions throughout the world, and conflicts in Europe, the Middle East and Asia make it clear: Our adversaries are advancing.’ He’s right, though you wouldn’t guess it from this administration’s defense budget. Talk is cheap. Real defense demands serious money.”
—Trump’s cuts to USAID could result in more than 14 million additional deaths worldwide in the next five years, according to new research published Monday in The Lancet medical journal. That includes a more than 80% reduction in USAID programs since Trump took office with plans to significantly reduce the size of the federal government.
From the years 2000 to 2021, “USAID funding was associated with a 65% reduction in mortality from HIV/AIDS (representing 2.5 million deaths), 51% from malaria (8.0 million deaths), and 50% from neglected tropical diseases (8.9 million deaths),” the researchers observed. Additional improvements were recorded for patients suffering from “tuberculosis, nutritional deficiencies, diarrheal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and maternal and perinatal conditions.” Taken together, the data suggests the Trump administration’s “current steep funding cuts [to USAID] could result in more than 14,051,750 (uncertainty interval 8,475,990-19,662,191) additional all-age deaths, including 4,537,157 (3,124,796-5,910,791) in children younger than age 5 years, by 2030.”
Why it matters: “USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades,” the researchers write in Lancet. “Our estimates show that, unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030.”
—–
Wall Street and the Economy
President Trump said last Friday he would “love” if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were to resign, and the president also said he wanted interest rates cut to 1%.
“I’d love him to resign if he wanted to, he’s done a lousy job,” Trump said, also labeling the Fed chair as “stupid.”
“I think we should be paying 1% right now, and we’re paying more because we have a guy who suffers from, I think, Trump Derangement Syndrome,” Trump added.
In a letter to Powell, Trump wrote: “Jerome, you are, as usual, ‘Too Late’!”, telling him that he has “cost the USA a fortune” and urging to “lower the rate by a lot.”
Trump also went after the Fed board as a whole.
“If they were doing their job properly, our Country would be saving Trillions of Dollars in Interest Cost,” he wrote. “The Board just sits there and watches, so they are equally to blame.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday outlined the options to replace Powell to the president.
For his part, Chair Powell, speaking alongside central-bank leaders from Europe and Asia at a conference in Portugal hosted by the European Central Bank, repeated his earlier view on rate cuts.
“We’re simply taking some time. As long as the U.S. economy is in solid shape, we think the prudent thing to do is wait and learn more and see what those effects might be.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, not a voting member this year, repeated on Monday that he still sees the central bank cutting its interest rate target once this year, while suggesting there’s no urgency to act as a lot of uncertainty remains in terms of how trade tariffs will affect inflation dynamics in the economy.
At an event, Bostic said he’s projecting a single interest rate cut for 2025. He warned that the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs has yet to be felt and he’s confident business will be passing on price increases, but it’s unclear how much of those increases will be tolerated by consumers who’ve already suffered through the pandemic-era inflation surge.
“I think there is actually more pricing to come, and it is more a question of time, of when and not if,” Bostic said.
So then we had Thursday’s jobs report for June, and it was stronger than expected, 147,000 on nonfarm payrolls vs. consensus of 110,000, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1%. The 4.1% clearly means any hopes for a July rate cut are out the window. Average hourly earnings were less than expected, up 0.2%, 3.7% year-over-year. Treasury yields surged.
Separately, we had ISM readings on manufacturing, 49.0, basically in line, and the service sector, 50.8, a little above consensus (50 being the dividing line between growth and contraction), while the Chicago PMI was a putrid 40.4, well below forecasts.
May construction spending was down 0.3%, a bad miss vs. consensus, with factory orders up 8.2%, as forecast.
No market moving economic data next week.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for second-quarter growth is down to 2.6%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.67%.
The national price for a gallon of regular gasoline at the pumps this holiday weekend has fallen to $3.15, well below where it was last year on this date.
On the trade front, late Sunday, Canada said that it would rescind a new tax it planned to collect from large tech companies after President Trump last week called the levy a “blatant attack” on the United States and said he would suspend trade talks with Ottawa over it.
In a statement, the Canadian government said Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump had agreed to resume negotiations on a “mutually beneficial comprehensive trade agreement” and would aim to reach a deal by July 21. The White House, and Trump, didn’t immediately respond.
The move came hours before Canada was set to begin collecting the first payments from a digital services tax it implemented last year. The levy would have applied to firms such as Google, Apple, Meta and Amazon.
A trade group representing those companies last week said the tax would collectively cost U.S. firms as much as $2.3 billion annually.
The tax has long drawn opposition from Washington. The Biden administration said it discriminated against U.S. companies, while Canadian business groups have also criticized the levy, because they believed it would strain U.S.-Canada ties and imperil a critical trade relationship.
Monday, the European Union said it is willing to accept a trade deal with the U.S. that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the U.S. to commit to lower rates on pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and aircraft.
At the same time, Trump has threatened to proceed with ramping up tariffs on Japan, while his top economic adviser said the White House aims to finalize deals with partners after the July 4 holiday.
The president is upset with Tokyo for not accepting U.S. rice exports and said he would force Japan to “pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.”
Wednesday, the president announced a trade deal with Vietnam, setting the tariff rate on the country at 20 percent; better than the threatened 46 percent duties lined up in April, providing some certainty for companies such as Nike and Lululemon that rely heavily on the country’s production. Trump said that, as part of the deal, Vietnam will give the U.S. access to its markets with no tariff rate. The U.S., however, will impose a 40 percent tariff on goods made in a country with a higher import tax rate but shipped through Vietnam. [According to ING, up to 28% of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. contain “indirect Chinese content.”]
Vietnam exports goods including clothing and footwear, and electrical machinery to the U.S.
Trump commented further on negotiations with Japan, characterizing the Japanese as “spoiled,” and it was unlikely he would be making a deal ahead of the looming deadline next week.
This coming week could be chaotic.
Europe and Asia
We had the PMI releases for the eurozone this week for the month of June, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank. The manufacturing PMI was 49.5, service sector 50.5.
Germany: manufacturing 49.0 (34-month high); services 49.7
France: mfg. 48.1; services 49.6
Italy: mfg. 48.4; services 52.1
Spain: mfg. 51.4; services 51.9
Ireland: mfg. 53.7 (37-mo. high); services 51.5
Netherlands: mfg. 51.2
Greece: mfg. 53.1
UK: mfg. 47.7; services 52.8
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:
“There are signs of some stabilization in the manufacturing sector. Companies have now expanded production slightly for the fourth month in a row, order intake has ceased to fall, and slightly longer delivery times also indicate that demand is picking up a bit. Against the backdrop of numerous uncertainties – U.S. tariffs, the crisis in the Middle East, and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine – this can certainly be seen as a sign of resilience. However, it also has to do with the fact that, after years of recession, the economic cycle usually turns at some point because old machines need to be replaced, cars can no longer be repaired, and the necessary modernization of factory buildings can’t be postponed any further.
UK: Britain’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the first three months of 2025 as homebuyers rushed to beat a deadline on property purchases and manufacturers sped up output ahead of President Trump’s higher import tariffs.
In a bounce that is not expected to be maintained in the rest of 2025, output grew by 0.7%, the fastest quarterly pace in a year, the Office for National Statistics said.
Growth in March alone was revised up to 0.4% from a previous reading of 0.2%.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the economy grew just 0.1%.
The Bank of England has said it expects economic growth of about 0.25% in the second quarter.
Turning to Asia…China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported out the official PMI readings for June, 49.7 manufacturing, 50.5 services. The private Caixin numbers were mfg. 50.4, services 50.6.
Japan’s June PMIs were 50.1 for manufacturing, 51.7 services.
South Korea’s manufacturing PMI for June was 48.7. Taiwan’s was 47.2.
Street Bytes
–The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Thursday, in this holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones now just shy of its own record close at 44828. The S&P gained 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.6% and the Dow 2.3%, amid optimism over the economy and eventual rate cuts.
Monday marked the end of the second quarter and it was a mighty strong one for equities, with the S&P 500 up 10.5%, best quarterly performance since 2023, Nasdaq jumping 17.4%, best since Q2 2020, while the Dow Jones rose 5%.
But now we enter earnings season, and analysts polled by FactSet expect companies in the S&P 500 to report earnings growth of 9.4% this year, below the 14.3% they expected in January. But still largely about trade negotiations that hopefully produce deals mitigating any fallout.
—U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.47 million barrels-per-day in April, up from 13.45 million bpd in March, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration. The oil price rose a bit on the week.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.29% 2-yr. 3.88% 10-yr. 4.35% 30-yr. 4.86%
At the end of the second quarter, Monday, the 10-year yield of 4.22% was down from 4.57% at year end. But it surged on the solid jobs numbers Thursday, ditto the 2-year.
—The largest U.S. lenders are well-positioned to withstand a severe economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test results showed last Friday (released after the market close and my last WIR), an outcome that suggests banks will announce plans to distribute more capital to shareholders in the coming days.
The 22 big banks subject to the test’s hypothetical recession scenario, including JPMorgan Chase, would have enough capital to absorb more than $550 billion in losses and still have the ability to lend to consumers and businesses.
The Fed noted that their hypothetical conditions set forth this year – which included steep declines in real estate prices and unemployment rising to 10% – were generally less strenuous than last year’s.
Under the most severe scenario modeled by the Fed this year, the key measure of financial resilience known as the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would fall 1.8 percentage points. The ratio refers to a bank’s core capital relative to its risk-weighted assets.
—Ford Motor Co.’s electric vehicle sales plunged 31.4% in the second quarter after the automaker ordered dealers not to sell its battery-powered Mustang Mach-e model due to a safety flaw that could lock occupants in the car. [That would suck.] Ford recalled about 317,00 Mach-es to fix the software defect in the electronic door latches.
Mustang Mach-e sales fell 19.5% in the second quarter to 10,178 vehicles. Ford F-150 Lightning plug-in pickup deliveries dropped 26.1% to 5,842 trucks. By contrast, Ford sold 216,617 gasoline-fueled and hybrid F-Series pickups from April through June.
The EV sales decline stood in contrast to Ford’s overall sales, which rose 14.2% as its employee-pricing-for-everyone discount program helped boost demand for its gasoline-powered and hybrid models. Ford’s F-Series sales rose 11.5% in the second quarter. And sales of its gas-electric hybrid models were up 23.5%.
Ford shares rose on the overall tone.
—Tesla’s global sales fell 13.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, and overall Q2 deliveries came in at 384,122, which missed expectations of 387,000, but were better than many expected so the shares rose sharply, Wednesday, after falling 5% earlier in the week on the renewed Trump vs. Elon Musk feud.
—TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
7/2…87 percent of 2024 levels
7/1…107
6/30…98
6/29…112
6/28…89
6/27…102
6/26…108
—The new version of the Senate bill included a new excise tax on wind and solar projects with certain Chinese components, a late addition that stunned renewable advocates. Given China’s dominance of the solar supply chain, developers would struggle to find ample equipment, including wafers, from other countries.
The bill would also roll back clean energy tax credits sooner than the House version of the package. It would require wind and solar projects to be fully operational by the end of 2027 to qualify for incentives. Many observers had expected the Senate to ease the phaseout – not accelerate it.
—Last year, China installed more wind turbines and solar panels than in the rest of the world combined. And China’s clean energy boom is going global. Chinese companies are building electric vehicles and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco, Hungary and beyond.
At the same time, President Trump is pressing Japan and South Korea to invest “trillions of dollars” in a project to ship natural gas to Asia. And General Motors just killed plans to make electric motors at a factory near Buffalo, N.Y., and instead will put $888 million into building V-8 gasoline engines there.
The Trump administration wants to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels, with the U.S. being the world’s largest producer of oil and the largest exporter of natural gas, while China is racing in an altogether different direction.
—Oracle shares jumped 4% Monday to a new record closing high after the software giant disclosed that it inked new multibillion-dollar cloud services agreements.
In a statement to employes, CEO Safra Catz said: “Oracle is off to a strong start in FY26. Our MultiCloud database revenue continues to grow at over 100%, and we signed multiple large cloud services agreements including one that is expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in FY28.”
In its 2025 fiscal year, which ended May 31, Oracle’s revenue from its cloud services business amounted to $24.5 billion, and total revenue was $57.4 billion.
The company’s shares then rose a further 4% Wednesday on news OpenAI will be using its servers.
—Apple Inc. is considering using artificial intelligence technology from Anthropic PBC or OpenAI to power a new version of Siri, sidelining its own in-house models in a potentially blockbuster move aimed at turning around its failing AI effort.
The iPhone maker has talked with both companies about using their large language models for Siri, according to Bloomberg. It has asked them to train versions of their models that could run on Apple’s cloud infrastructure for testing, said people familiar with the circumstances, who asked not to be identified.
If Apple ultimately moves forward it would represent a monumental reversal. The company currently powers most of its AI features with homegrown technology and has been planning a new version of its voice assistant that runs on that technology for 2026.
A switch to Anthropic’s Claude or OpenAI’s ChatGPT models for Siri would be an acknowledgement that the company is struggling to compete in generative AI.
Apple’s investigation into third-party models is at an early stage, Bloomberg reports.
—Microsoft announced it was laying off 9,000 globally, though not necessarily because of AI.
—Paramount Global, parent of CBS News, settled with President Trump for $16 million in a lawsuit brought by him challenging a “60 Minutes” interview last year with former Vice President Kamala Harris, the parties announced Wednesday. Paramount’s decision to settle and Trump’s success in pressuring news outlets that cover him using the heft of the federal government are reverberating across the media industry.
The settlement, which had been speculated about for months, could spark further lawsuits and hurdles for Paramount, which wants to secure a multi-billion-dollar merger with fellow entertainment giant Skydance. That proposed merger would come before the government. The settlement follows another $15 million settlement between Trump and ABC News after he accused the network of defamation.
Staff at CBS and “60 Minutes” are furious with the cave in.
—Constellation Brands missed first-quarter sales and profit estimates on Tuesday, as fears of rising tariffs and economic uncertainty prompted consumers to reduce purchases of beer and wines.
U.S. alcoholic beverage makers have faced a double blow from the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies, a challenge that comes at a time when the industry is already grappling with tepid demand.
The Corona beer maker reported net sales of $2.52 billion for the quarter ended May 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $2.55 billion.
Tariffs on beer imports, along with the inclusion of beer cans under aluminum tariffs, have impacted liquor makers such as Constellation Brands and Molson Coors.
And Constellation has experienced a significant slowdown in beer consumption, particularly among its Hispanic consumers, following Trump’s immigration crackdown.
The company’s beer business, its largest revenue contributor, reported a 2.6% decline in quarterly depletion volume – the rate at which products are sold – driven by declines in brands such as Modelo Especial and Corona Extra.
–An American Farm Bureau Federation survey estimates that the retail price for 2 pounds of ground beef has risen to $13.33, or $6.67 a pound, the highest price recorded by the survey since it began in 2013.
“Consumer demand for quality beef is not declining,” said Samantha Ayoub, author of the survey and an associate economist with the AFBF.
U.S. cattle inventories are at their lowest in roughly 75 years, according to data from the Agriculture Department. In its most recent assessment, the USDA said that the total cattle herd in the U.S. is 86 million animals, the lowest since 1951.
It has been exceptionally dry across the heartland in recent years, limiting the land where cattle can graze. Droughts hitting pastures lead to nutritional deficits in cows, and it also allows drought-tolerant weeds to grow, potentially toxic for grazing animals.
And now there are fears a parasitic species of fly, New World screwworm, is working its way from Panama into Mexico and agricultural producers fear that the U.S. might be next. As a precaution, the U.S. has suspended cattle imports from across the southern border.
—Apple has been attempting to build a presence on the big screen and it scored last weekend with “F1: The Movie,” which topped the domestic box office with a strong $55.6 million debut.
F1, directed by Top Gun: Maverick’s Joseph Kosinski and starring Brad Pitt, raked in another $88.4 million internationally, for a $144 million global weekend, according to Comscore. [Pitt’s highest global opening ever.]
Overall, domestic box office sales of $4.13 billion for the year through Sunday are 15.5% higher than 2024.
“How To Train Your Dragon” is up to $454 million globally since opening June 13.
Foreign Affairs
Israel/Iran/Gaza: The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the U.S. strikes on Iran fell short of causing total damage to its nuclear program and that Tehran could restart enriching uranium “in a matter of months,” contradicting President Trump’s claims the U.S. set Tehran’s ambitions back by decades.
Grossi appeared to support the initial Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that the strikes only set back the program by months.
In an interview with CBS’ “Face the Nation” program Sunday, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said that his country’s uranium enrichment will “never stop” because Iran has an “inalienable right” to do so for “peaceful nuclear activity.”
Asked about the differing assessments of the attacks on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, Grossi told CBS’ Margaret Brennan: “This hourglass approach in weapons of mass destruction is not a good idea.”
“The capacities they have are there. They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that. But as I said, frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing here,” he told Brennan.
“It is clear that there has been severe damage, but it’s not total damage,” Grossi went on to say. ‘Iran has the capacities there: industrial and technological capacities. So, if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.”
Grossi also said the IAEA has resisted pressure to say whether Iran has nuclear weapons or was close to having weapons before the strikes.
“We didn’t see a program that was aiming in that direction (of nuclear weapons), but at the same time, they were not answering very, very important questions that were pending.”
A U.S. official told CNN, in response to Grossi’s comments, that the IAEA chief had previously described “a very serious level of damage.”
“As Rafael Grossi said just days ago, the difference between Iran’s nuclear program before and after Operation Midnight Hammer is ‘night and day,’ and a ‘very serious level of damage’ was done,” the official said.
“Iran has no air defenses, so the idea that they can just start rebuilding a nuclear weapons program is nonsense. As the president has said, Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Grossi stressed Sunday the need for the IAEA to be granted access to Iran. Tehran had been disclosing information to the agency up until the Israeli and U.S. strikes, but that “there were some things that they were not clarifying to us.”
“In this sensitive area of the number of centrifuges and the amount of material, we had perfect view,” he said. “What I was concerned about is that there were other things that were not clear. For example, we had found traces of uranium in some places in Iran, which were not the normal declared facilities. And we were asking for years, why did we find these traces of enriched uranium in places x, y or z? And we were simply not getting credible answers.”
The initial Pentagon assessment said Tehran may have moved some of the enriched uranium out of the sites before they were attacked but President Trump has insisted nothing was moved.
“It’s logical to presume that when they announce that they are going to be taking protective measures, this could be part of it (moving the material). But, as I said, we don’t know where this material could be, or if part of it could have been, you know, under the attack during those days,” Grossi told Brennan.
Iran may already be repairing the Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant struck by U.S. forces last week, according to new satellite photos from Maxar showing heavy construction equipment near ventilation points the U.S. struck with GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The Institute for the Study of War said that Iran may be filling the craters, checking for radiation, and doing other assessments. The photos also show new road construction to other impact points.
Iranian officials downplayed the degree of damage on a private call that U.S. intelligence intercepted, according to the Washington Post. Satellite photos available after the strikes, plus preliminary reports from the Defense Intelligence Agency as well as the IAEA, suggest the damage likely set the Iranian program back by a matter of months. Of course, the White House disputes this description.
Iran then formally said Wednesday that international inspectors won’t be able to assess the damage from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes or verify the whereabouts of Tehran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. The suspension is effective until various conditions are met, including guaranteed safety for Iranian nuclear sites and scientists.
Wednesday, a Pentagon spokesperson told reporters Iran’s nuclear program has been degraded by 1 to 2 years.
Separately, Iranian state news media reported that 71 people were killed when Israel attacked Evin Prison in Tehran on June 23. Dissidents and political prisoners, including opposition politicians, activists, lawyers, journalists and students, are held at the facility.
Detainees, visiting relatives and prison staff members were among the dead, according to a statement from a spokesman for Iran’s judiciary. He did not provide names of the dead, heightening the concerns of some detainees’ families, who said they had not heard from their loved ones since the strike.
In Gaza, Israeli forces killed at least 74 people on Monday with airstrikes that left 30 dead at a seaside café and gunfire that left 23 dead as Palestinians tried to get desperately needed food aid, witnesses and health officials said.
One airstrike hit Al-Baqa Café in Gaza City when it was crowded with women and children, according to multiple reports.
In the days prior, at least 81 Palestinians were killed and more than 400 injured in Israeli strikes across Gaza in the 24 hours until midday Saturday, the Hamas-run health ministry said.
And then Thursday, a reported 82 were killed in airstrikes and shootings, including 38 attempting to get humanitarian aid, according to hospitals and the Health Ministry.
President Trump began calling, again, for a ceasefire. It was in March that a two-month ceasefire collapsed when Israel launched fresh strikes on Gaza. That one, which started on January 19, was set up to have three stages, but did not make it past the first stage.
Tuesday, Trump said Israel had agreed on terms of a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and warned Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen.
The president posted:
“My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he said.
Russia/Ukraine: Ukraine lost another F-16 pilot during a massive barrage of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles on Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) called it the “largest combined strikes series of the war.”
The attack featured 477 drones and decoys, and 60 missiles. Ukraine claims to have shot down 221 drones and 38 of those missiles; an additional cruise missile along with more than 220 drones were allegedly foiled thanks to Ukraine’s electronic warfare systems. Two people were killed, at least six injured, last I saw.
But “while repelling the attack, our F-16 pilot, Maksym Ustymenko, died” after “destroying 7 aerial targets,” Zelensky said Sunday.
Ukraine has now lost three F-16s since it began operating the U.S.-made jets last year, Reuters reported. Kyiv has not revealed the size of its F-16 fleet, but they have become a key part of Ukraine’s defenses. [The F-16s are particularly good at shooting down missiles…not so much drones.]
Zelensky in a social media post directly appealed to the U.S. for more air defense assets: “Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defense – the thing that best protects lives. These are American systems, which we are ready to buy. We count on leadership, political will, and the support of the United States, Europe, and all of our partners.”
In just the past seven days, Zelensky said Russia had launched 114 missiles, 1,270 drones, and 1,100 glide bombs at targets across Ukraine. At least 42 civilians have died due to Russian strikes against Kyiv alone since the start of June,” according to the ISW.
“Moscow will not stop as long as it has the capability to launch massive strikes,” Zelensky stressed to allies in his message Sunday.
The Associated Press said its data show Russia launched 5,438 drones at Ukraine for all of June, a monthly record.
[The UN’s Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine says 968 civilians have been killed in the country from December 2024 to May 2025, up 37 percent for the same period last year, with 4,807 injured.]
As the ISW noted in a Sunday update: “The increases in Russia’s strike passages in recent week are largely due to Russia’s efforts to scale up its defense industrial production, particularly of Shahed and decoy drones and ballistic missiles.”
The drones are meant to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, making it easier for cruise and ballistic missiles to get through.
And then we had Thursday’s ‘largest-ever’ attack, as noted above.
—Russian attacks on Ukraine are spiking, and Putin’s troops are pressing a 3-1 advantage inside the partially occupied northeastern Sumy region, where 50,000 Russian forces are trying to “wear us down with their numbers,” Kyiv’s top military officer Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the Wall Street Journal Sunday.
Russia’s military is just 12 miles from Sumy, the regional capital.
Ukraine’s defense of Sumy “is coming at a greater human cost than necessary,” Ukrainian troops told the Journal. “It was the cruelest fight I’ve ever been in,” one 25-year-old platoon commander said. Russian forces “were attacking with infantry, drones, grenade launchers, machines guns, artillery, cluster munitions. Everything…We never have more than a five-minute break while they were regrouping.”
Moscow’s forces also just invaded and occupied their first Ukrainian village in the east-central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Reuters reported, citing Russian state-run media Monday. Russian forces first entered the region in May, but have been unable to seize much territory there until this weekend.
Russian troops control only small parts of the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Kharkiv regions. But aside from fully occupying the Crimean Peninsula, they control “more than 99% of the Luhansk region*, [and] over 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions,” Reuters reports.
Gen. Syrskyi said Sunday that the front line has grown by more than 100 miles and now stretches more than 750 miles in an arc from the northeast to the south. The Russians have been probing in different spots across the line and then pushing hard when they find one that gives, as they did in Sumy last month. That leaves Ukrainian commanders playing whack-a mole, sending in elite units to help plug gaps.
*Tuesday, Russia said it now occupies all of Luhansk region. This would make Luhansk the first Ukrainian region fully occupied by Russia after more than three years of war.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Gallup: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 57% disapprove. 36% of independents approve (June 3-19).
Rasmussen: 49% approve, 48% disapprove (July 3).
–Upstart Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani formally clinched the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City, as the final ranked-choice tabulation was revealed, Mamdani extending his lead over Andrew Cuomo to 12 points, 56% to 44%. After the polls closed on June 24, Mamdani had a 7-point lead.
Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” with Kristen Welker, Welker asked Mamdani: “You are a self-described democratic socialist. Do you think that billionaires have a right to exist?”
Mamdani: “I don’t think we should have billionaires because, frankly, it is so much money in a moment of such inequality. And, ultimately, what we need more of is equality across our city and across our state and across our country. And I look forward to work with everyone, including billionaires, to make a city that is fairer for all of them.”
Oh brother. Sounds like a kid running for 8th grade class president.
—A new Gallup poll had some enlightening/depressing results. Only 36% of Democrats say they’re “extremely” or “very” proud to be American, reflecting a dramatic decline in national pride that’s also clear among young people.
The findings are a stark illustration of how many – but not all – Americans have felt less of a sense of pride in their country over the past decade. The split between Democrats and Republicans, at 56 percentage points, is at its widest since 2001. That includes all four years of President Trump’s first team.
Only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults who are part of Generation Z, which is defined as those born from 1997 to 2012, expressed a high level of pride in being American in Gallup surveys conducted in the past five years, on average. That’s compared with about 6 in 10 Millennials – those born between 1980 and 1996 – and at least 7 in 10 U.S. adults in older generations.
“Each generation is less patriotic than the prior generation, and Gen Z is definitely much lower than anybody else,” said Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor at Gallup. “But even among the older generations, we see that they’re less patriotic than the ones before them, and they’ve become less patriotic over time. That’s primarily driven by Democrats within those generations.”
Even during the tumultuous early years of the Iraq War, the vast majority of U.S. adults, whether Republican or Democrat, said they were “extremely” or “very” proud to be American. At that point, about 9 in 10 were “extremely” or “very” proud to be an American. That remained high in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but the consensus around American pride slipped in the years that followed, dropping to about 8 in 10 in 2006 and continuing a gradual decline.
Now, 58% of U.S. adults say that, in a downward shift that’s been driven almost entirely by Democrats and independents. The vast majority of Republicans continue to say they’re proud to be American.
Pollster Jeffrey Jones said, “It’s not just a Trump story. Something else is going on, and I think it’s just younger generations coming in and not being as patriotic as older people.”
—Bryan Kohberger pleaded guilty to murdering four University of Idaho students as part of a deal to avoid the death penalty, an attorney for one victim’s family said.
“We are beyond furious at the State of Idaho,” Kaylee Goncalves wrote in a Facebook post. “They have failed us. Please give us some time. This was very unexpected.”
The trial was set for August in Boise, where it was moved following pretrial publicity in rural northern Idaho.
The problem was a full state trial was going to be massively expensive for Moscow, Idaho, site of the school, with witnesses traveling from Pennsylvania, for starters.
—President Trump visited the site of the new detention center in the Florida Everglades, the ‘Alligator Alcatraz’, surrounded by habitat that is loaded with snakes and alligators.
“You know snakes are fast, but alligators,” the president told reporters Monday, “we’re going to teach them how to run away from an alligator, OK? If they escape prison, how to run away. Don’t run in a straight line,” he said.
Experts have debunked this advice and do recommend running away from an alligator in a straight line.
–I saw a video of the scene in Budapest last Saturday, when between 100,000 and 200,000 mostly young people held a parade on both sides of the Danube, crossing the Elizabeth Bridge, as part of a Budapest Pride celebration, despite Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ban. I mean to tell you, I never saw such a crowd. Last year, just 35,000 took part.
Many banners mocked the Hungarian prime minister, who has declared war on the movement during his 15 years in power.
“In my history class, I learnt enough, to recognize a dictatorship. You don’t need to illustrate it – Vik!” read one hand-made banner. “I’m so bored of Fascism,” read another.
There were no signs of arrests or fines, despite repeated warnings by police that the event was illegal and prohibited.
—Sean “Diddy” Combs was acquitted of sex trafficking and racketeering charges, but found guilty on lesser charges of transportation to engage in prostitution. He was then denied bail. Combs still faces at least four or five years in prison. [I couldn’t have cared less about this trial, but felt obligated to put something down for the archives.]
—Two people died in Italy Monday as temperatures continued to soar in southern Europe.
Parts of Spain and Portugal recorded their highest ever June temperatures, with 46C (114.8F) temps at El Granado in southwest Spain, a day after records were broken in Mora in central Portugal, where a temperature of 46.6 (115.9F) was registered, Mora being about 60 miles east of Lisbon, on Sunday.
Wimbledon recorded a temperature of 32.9C, 91F, the tennis tournament’s hottest opening day on record.
The heatwave lowered levels in the Rhine River – a major shipping route – limiting the amount cargo ships can transport and raising freighting costs.
—Hurricane forecasters will soon lose access to government satellite data vital to tracking hurricanes overnight – and to preventing what meteorologists once called a “sunrise surprise,” when a storm unexpectedly strengthens or shifts in the darkness. The Pentagon said Monday that it would wait until the end of July before it stops sharing the data – a month later than initially planned – in response to the high level of concern after the move was first announced last week.
Meteorologists typically track hurricanes/tropical storms at night observing microwave frequencies using Defense Department satellites, which is more valuable than ever at a time when more hurricanes are undergoing rapid intensification, in which they transform from tropical storms or low-end hurricanes into major Category 4 or 5 storms within a matter of hours – often just before making landfall.
Some meteorologists worry that July is too soon to lose the data, before they have a chance to work out alternatives – and experts have raised concerns that the loss of data could set forecasting capabilities back decades.
At the same time, NOAA and the National Weather Service have lost hundreds of meteorologists and other earth scientists amid DOGE-inspired cuts.
—If you want to go to Greenland, United Airlines is offering a direct flight to Nuuk from Newark Airport for three months, the service having commenced June 14, and the first to the island from the United States in nearly two decades. It’s a roughly four-hour nonstop flight, aboard a Boeing 737 MAX 8.
Greenland is eager to welcome Americans and others looking to explore glaciers and mountains and engage in cultural exchange. The government recently extended a runway to accommodate larger planes. This would be very cool.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini.
God bless America.
—
Gold $3337
Oil $67.19…Thursday 4:00 p.m. prices for both Gold and Oil….
Bitcoin $109,337 [4:00 PM ET, Thursday]
Regular Gas: $3.15; Diesel: $3.68 [$3.51 – $3.84 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 6/30-7/4
Dow Jones +2.3% [44828]
S&P 500 +1.7% [6279]…record…
S&P MidCap +2.9%
Russell 2000 +3.5%
Nasdaq +1.6% [20601]…record…
Returns for the period 1/1/25-7/4/25
Dow Jones +5.4%
S&P 500 +6.8%
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +0.9%
Nasdaq +6.7%
Bulls 51.0
Bears 21.6…huge one-week jump from 38.8 / 28.6
Hang in there.
Happy Fourth! Travel safe.
Brian Trumbore
*This was hell week for me…woke up Wednesday without internet access and it was desktop related. Plan B took a while to come together, and just praying this column posts. I hope to resume my Mon.-Fri. videos after the market close by next Tuesday.
