[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
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Edition 1,433
Down below I get into the horrific week of carnage in Ukraine this week, with 78 people killed and 215 wounded by Russian strikes on Wednesday and Thursday across the country.
President Volodymyr Zelensky accused the United States of being unwilling to help after the latest bomb attack killed 35 people in the east.
Hours after a strike on Kramatorsk tore through two buses, Zelensky criticized Washington’s efforts to pursue economic ties with Russia while also seeking to mediate the more than four-year war.
Speaking to reporters in Pryluky, where 22 died in an apartment building struck by Russia the day before, the Ukrainian leader urged the U.S. to accede to his requests to expand Ukraine’s access to the Starlink satellite service to help it target Russian ballistic-missile launchers.
“Open Starlink for Ukraine. You did open it when you were responding to Iran… I’ve said quite openly – give it to us, help us defend our skies and dominate there. And then Putin will sit down at the negotiating table,” Zelensky said in an emotional statement.
“Where’s the truth here, where’s the honesty? Where’s the stalemate?… That’s called unwillingness,” he said, referring to Sec. of State Marco Rubio’s assertion earlier on Thursday the war is at a stalemate and that the United States would keep working toward a settlement.
“One cannot, on the one hand, negotiate with the Russians about future economic projects, whilst on the other hand say that we find ourselves in some sort of…diplomatic stalemate,” Zelensky added.
Top Russian and U.S. officials, including Jared Kushner, have held talks about bringing a U.S. investor into the Nord Stream pipelines that delivered Russian gas to Germany before Moscow invaded Ukraine, Reuters reported on Thursday.
Ukrainian negotiators will travel to the U.S. on Friday and Saturday for talks, Zelensky said, urging President Trump to increase sanction pressure on Russia.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin received an invite to the G20 meeting at Trump’s Doral National Club in December. The pictures from there will be sickening.
And, of course, nothing from Trump calling out Vlad the Impaler for his endless attacks on civilians in Ukraine this week on Truth Social.
In the history books, I don’t care what good Donald Trump has done economically, cutting regulations, etc. He will be judged primarily by this war…and the end game in Iran. Thus far, there is zero reason for history to be kind.
—
So, I wrote all the above prior to 2:00 PM ET today…and then out of nowhere, President Trump, at 2:46 PM, posted on Truth Social this incredibly despicable garbage:
“I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
And we learned minutes later, the Treasury Department immediately suspended sanctions on Russia that the late-Senator Lindsey Graham’s legislation, passed by the Senate and House and signed by the president, had sought to STRENGTHEN!!!
I can’t believe it…but we all should. Once again, Donald Trump, as America celebrates the 250th anniversary of our Democracy, not only won’t call out a dictator, killer of hundreds of thousands of innocents, he rewards him…and invites him to Miami.
Imagine what the Ukrainian negotiators are going to be telling their administration counterparts this weekend.
Those above history books? I’ve been writing one of them.
—
Tale of the Tape
Oil / West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Friday, Feb. 27…$67.30
Friday, Oct. 9…$91.40
Nationwide averages at the Gas Pump [Source: AAA]
Friday, Feb. 27…regular $2.98; diesel $3.75
Friday, Oct. 9…regular $4.36; diesel $6.27
As it went down day-by-day in the Iran War….
—Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Saturday that the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is “ironclad” and that President Trump has “all the options he needs on the table” if Iran continues to “play games” with the Strait.
“Iran wants to play games with things like the Strait of Hormuz. They don’t control it, we do,” Hegseth told reporters. “They have literally gotten nothing through. Our blockade has been ironclad and we’re running almost at prewar levels every single night through that, you see that as far as the throughput.”
He added: “So we feel like we’re in a very strong position. Iran ought to make the right choice. If they don’t, the president is going to have all the options he needs on the table. But he is not going to let these things extend unnecessarily. He understands what the mission is and we can get it done when called upon.”
Hegseth also said that Trump is “hellbent” on Iran not having a nuclear weapon.
Sunday, Iran’s top diplomat insisted that there would be no military solution to the war against the Islamic Republic, with talks on ending the conflict apparently at an impasse.
“If our enemies choose the path of military confrontation, our response will be stronger than before, and we will defend ourselves with even more force,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a gathering of foreign ambassadors.
“There is no military solution, nor any solution based on new sanctions,” he continued, adding “only negotiations based on justice and fairness” could end the conflict.
On Sunday, the British maritime security agency UKMTO said a tanker in the Hormuz “reported being struck by an unknown projectile, causing damage to the engine room,” though the crew were reported safe and no environmental impact was recorded.
The agency didn’t specify the date of the incident, the vessel’s origin or destination, or whether it was an oil tanker or LNG carrier.
Iran has demanded, among other things, a ceasefire across the Middle East, the unfreezing of its assets abroad, the lifting of sanctions on its oil sector and an end to the U.S. naval blockade.
President Trump rejected the proposal, leaving the door open both to further talks or renewed military operations.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei on Sunday characterized the latest U.S. counterproposal as being “in line with their previous proposals concerning nuclear issues.”
“We have clearly indicated that we are focusing on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, adding that reopening the waterway required “an end to the disruptions to Iranian commercial maritime traffic and the lifting of sanctions.”
Axios reported that Washington has deployed additional Patriot missile batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to help protect key energy facilities from possible Iranian retaliation.
And the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and its strike group are heading to the Middle East, where they could join two other U.S. carrier strike groups already in the region.
Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched a full-scale military campaign to recapture Houthi-held territory after weeks of escalating conflict between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia.
All branches of Yemen’s army were told to begin operations and fight “until the liberation of the country from the grip of the terrorist Houthi militia,” the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, said Sunday in a public address.
A Saudi-led coalition that includes Yemeni forces has been locked in ground and air battles with the Houthis since early September, when a fresh offensive by the group saw them capture strategic areas on Yemen’s western coast.
The Houthis’ ground advance bolstered their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that Saudi Arabia had been using to export oil and bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the Houthis have stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, firing drones and missiles at cities and energy sites.
But overnight Monday, the Yemeni armed forces said they took control of the Red Sea city of Mokha after battles with the Houthis, according to a Yemeni news agency.
The Houthis said the Saudi military had launched around 60 airstrikes on parts of Yemen, including the capital, Sana’a. The Houthis said they responded by firing missiles and drones at the kingdom and targeted the main airport in Riyadh.
None of the claims were immediately verified.
Yemeni troops also claim they had taken over other areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It would be significant if the Yemeni government claims about Mokha are true.
Wednesday, the Houthis attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing three people, including at Riyadh’s King Khalid international airport. Over 30 people were injured.
Riyadh has been erecting cage-like fences around fuel tanks and other equipment of the Saudi state-run Aramco oil company near the capital’s airport.
Fighting intensified further between the Houthis and Yemeni government forces in the area of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
And with less than a month to go before the midterm elections, Iran escalated its attacks in the Strait, dramatically reducing the amount of oil moving through, in hitting at least nine vessels in the Strait last week – a level of violence not seen in months, according to data from the UN and maritime tracking firm Kpler, the latter verifying flows have dropped steeply.
Wednesday, the story emerged that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections, while President Trump said that evening at a rally that he no longer wanted a deal with Iran.
But, Thursday, with oil surging anew on the above, President Trump posted on Truth Social, 12:17 PM:
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
There are zero productive negotiations taking place with Iran. The administration, seeing the surge in oil prices Thursday, sought to bring the price back down, actions all caused by the president’s reckless rhetoric.
—In the FlyDubai incident, the co-pilot who stabbed his captain and sent Flight 1073 diving toward the ground had previously been banned from flying by Oman over concerns he had adopted radical ideological views, we learned over the weekend.
Despite the ban, the pilot, an Omani national, was hired by FlyDubai, allowing him to pilot on the sensitive route connecting the UAE and Israel.
It has yet to be determined whether Oman shared concerns about the pilot’s radicalization with other countries or airlines. The nature of his radicalization is unknown thus far.
The UAE is leading the investigation into the near catastrophe.
A senior adviser to the UAE’s ruler and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Wednesday’s near-downing of Flight 1073 as terrorism on Friday.
“The attacker underwent Islamic radicalization,” Netanyahu said. “He came to crash the passengers on board.”
Aviation-security analysts said the incident represented a significant security failure. While a screening error might have left a weapon through, a motivated assailant should have been detected and caught long before reaching the airport, they said.
The prime minister said Israel was investigating whether the pilot was working alone or had worked with others.
The UAE and Israel are known to have high security standards in their airports.
Israeli airlines flying to Dubai are known to follow stricter security protocols than their foreign counterparts on the same route.
We then had reports that authorities in the UAE shared with Israel a list of passengers and crew ahead of the FlyDubai flight, raising new questions over how the attacker evaded detection. It remained unclear how a citizen of Oman, an Arab country that has no diplomatic relations with Israel, was allowed to fly a planeload of Israelis to Tel Aviv.
The Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security agency, said the Transportation Ministry is responsible for vetting passenger lists from foreign flights. Transportation Minister Miri Regev told Israel’s public broadcaster Kan that the security agencies are responsible for flight security and that her ministry wasn’t given a list of passengers or any warnings.
Netanyahu had said last Thursday that Israel has longstanding agreements with foreign carriers to keep pilots from flying into the country if they are citizens of nations that don’t maintain diplomatic relations with Israel.
It was then reported Monday that the co-pilot told UAE investigators he planned the attack before he was hired by the Dubai state-owned airline, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the probe.
A third source, as reported by Reuters, said the co-pilot had planned to crash the flight into Ben-Gurion airport near Tel Aviv. He had also operated a flight to Tel Aviv earlier this year and intended to hijack and crash the plane then but opted not to, the source added.
It was not clear why the co-pilot changed his mind on that previous flight, but he may have known someone onboard.
—The U.S. removed all its B-1 bombers from the UK’s RAF Fairford air base, a decision made due to security concerns over suspected terror plots against the facility, U.S. officials said Sunday.
The decision represents a shift for the U.S., which has used the military base northwest of London as a hub for launching bomber strikes in Iran. Until their recent departure, a dozen B-1s had been stationed at the base.
“While operational security precluded us from confirming the movement of our assets and forces in real-time, we can acknowledge now that all U.S. bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have redeployed to their home stations in the United States,” the Pentagon said in a statement, adding that the U.S. bombers remain ready to carry out attacks from the U.S. The UK Ministry of Defense declined to comment.
It was a week earlier that five men were arrested in connection to a suspected attack on the base, with a sixth suspect arrested in London days later on suspicion of plotting a terrorist act but was, like the other five, released on bail.
U.S. officials were aware of an Iran-linked plot to attack the bomber aircraft and kill personnel at the base, the Wall Street Journal has reported. A branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had recruited UK nationals to carry out the plot, which involved multiple steps including a diversion in the neighborhood nearby, according to a senior U.S. official.
British police on Tuesday then arrested a seventh suspect, a 22-year-old man in London on suspicion of a terror offense at Fairford.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the UK sees “strong indications” that Iran played a part in the incident, and the investigation goes on.
—
Wall Street and the Economy
Federal Reserve officials overwhelmingly concluded that they had more work to do to quell inflation after raising interest rates at their September meeting, according to minutes from it released on Wednesday.
Last month, the Fed voted to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. It was the first increase since July 2023 and was supported by all 12 members of the policy-setting committee.
Projections released alongside the Fed’s rate decision showed that 16 of the 18 policymakers who submitted rate estimates expected at least one more quarter-point move by the end of the year. Most wanted to stay at or above the expected range of 4 to 4.25 percent throughout 2027.
According to the minutes, many officials assessed that higher rates would be “prudent on risk-management grounds, providing insurance against inflation remaining persistently above target due to stronger-than-expected demand or further adverse supply shocks.”
Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2 percent target for nearly six years.
Several participants said they did not view the Fed’s previous policy settings as either “restrictive or only mildly restrictive,” suggesting that higher rates were necessary to slow down demand sufficiently and get inflation under control.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis in September on the need to swiftly return inflation to the 2 percent target fueled expectations that the Fed might consider raising rates at its next meeting on Oct. 27-28, but that is a week before the midterm elections and I said long ago there was no way the Fed is hiking then. I really don’t know why people were even thinking about it.
But recently John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who is the vice chair of the policy-setting committee, said there was “no need for urgency” in the wake of September’s increase. Two days later, Philip Jefferson, the Fed vice chair, said that assessing the timing of additional moves “may take more time.”
And then influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation to the Fed’s 2 percent target, but added there was “flexibility” about the pace of increases and left the door open for a pause at the October meeting.
“If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal,” Waller said in remarks to a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul.
“But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”
We had little on the economic data front this week, with the ISM service sector reading for September at 54.9, as expected.
But the Congressional Budget Office said the U.S. budget deficit climbed to nearly $2 trillion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, deepening the federal government’s persistent red-ink trend.
The deficit rose 12% from 2025 in nominal dollars, reaching the highest level since 2021. The U.S. spent $7.4 trillion last year, up 6%, and it collected $5.4 trillion in revenue, up 3%.
The deficit also stayed high as a share of GDP, the metric economists watch closely. Although the final fiscal 2026 GDP number has yet to be released budget experts expect the deficit to surpass 6% of GDP, compared with 5.8% in fiscal 2025.
Six-plus years into an economic expansion, the U.S. is running annual deficits normally seen only during recessions and wars. This year’s jump in bond yields makes the fiscal trajectory even more challenging, because it drives up annual interest costs on the $32 trillion publicly held debt.
Next week we have key inflation data…consumer and producer prices, as well as on retail sales.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for third-quarter growth is 3.6%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up to 7.40%, highest since Nov. 2023.
–After I posted last Friday, the U.S. Justice Department said it wouldn’t reopen a criminal investigation into former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns related to the central bank’s building renovation project.
But Attorney General Todd Blanche didn’t rule out continuing to look into the project’s oversight and potentially take action if evidence of wrongdoing came to light.
“We’re not reopening a criminal investigation into him,” Blanche said in an interview with Bloomberg.
But the Fed has said it will engage an independent auditor to scrutinize the building costs. Blanche added that if that review finds any evidence of criminal wrongdoing, the Justice Department could investigate.
Powell is not in the clear, the Wall Street Journal editorializing over the weekend that he was, and Powell shouldn’t step down until he has better guarantees that trumped up charges won’t be brought against him. AG Blanche essentially told us he easily could bring them.
And then President Trump on Friday said the White House had formed a committee to investigate Lisa Cook, a governor of the Federal Reserve, and would hold an in-person hearing next month to consider unproven accusations that she committed mortgage fraud.
The “committee of inquiry” will look into claims that Ms. Cook made “false statements in connection with one or more mortgage instruments,” the White House said in a statement. The hearing (show trial) is scheduled for Nov. 5.
Cook has not been charged with any crime.
It’s just the latest escalation in Trump’s efforts to fire Ms. Cook from the central bank, something a President can only pursue legally if there is “cause.” That has typically meant malfeasance or a dereliction of duty while on the job.
It came just four months after the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of Cook remaining in the job, which she can technically hold until 2038. The justices argued that Ms. Cook had not been given adequate due process before Mr. Trump announced her removal in August 2025, but they left unresolved a number of key issues, including what constitutes “cause.”
In August, the administration then restarted the process to try to fire her, claiming that Ms. Cook was “unfit for the office in which you serve as a controlling member of the Federal Reserve.”
Europe and Asia
We had the September service sector PMIs for the eurozone this week, with the EA21 mark 53.0, well above the 50 dividing line between growth and contraction. [S&P Global]
Germany 52.9, France 51.2, Italy 51.7, Spain 58.3, and Ireland 54.1.
UK: 52.1.
Industrial producer prices for August in the euro area rose 1.9% over July; 8.2% year-over-year, not good.
August retail sales rose just 0.1% in the month, 0.8% from a year earlier.
Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called an early election for November 29 on Monday, in a bid to strengthen his mandate after a fragmented parliament rejected the government’s key housing decrees last week amid widespread protests.
The snap vote is a high-stakes gamble for Sanchez, whose Socialist Party trails in nearly every opinion poll. An electoral defeat would spell the end of one of Europe’s last few left-leaning governments at a time when the far right is making unprecedented gains across the region as a growing swathe of European voters desert the center ground.
But Sanchez has been written off before.
Sanchez has stood out globally for taking a strong stance on progressive issues from Palestinian statehood to defending multilateral institutions and cracking down on “tech oligarchs,” even as a series of setbacks and scandals weakened his position at home.
Polls suggest a coalition led by the People’s Party (PP) with the support of Vox is the most likely outcome in Spain, ushering a far-right party into central government for the first time since the return of democracy after the death of dictator Francisco Franco.
France: Like in Spain, protests are roiling the nation. Tuesday, students, teachers and parents marched in cities across France and protesters blockaded hundreds of schools, in the biggest day of action in a wave of demonstrations demanding the government tackle understaffed and dilapidated classrooms.
Students held aloft smoke flares and placards reading “Under our schoolbooks, anger” and “Where are the politicians? Do they even know we exist?”
The protests began in Paris’ deprived suburbs before spreading across the country. The government responded with riot police, saying the movement had now morphed into urban violence.
A teenager’s hand was blown off as high-school protesters clashed with riot police in northern France on Monday.
The High School Students Union said 1,800 high schools were blockaded or would close for the day. Some local education authorities have tried to move classes online.
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has ordered his ministers to tackle the students’ leading demands. Those include ensuring absent teachers are replaced, reviewing the length of the 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. school day and the need for longer lunch breaks.
The protests have piled pressure on a government trying to narrow a ballooning budget deficit as investor concerns about France’s growing debt pile, weak growth and reluctance to rein in spending push bond yields higher. The yield on France’s 10-year bond briefly hit a 24-year high of over 5%.
Marine Le Pen, the far-right euro-skeptic populist leading the presidential race ahead of next spring’s election, set out plans to slash public spending if elected, seeking to establish her fiscal credibility as the bond market crisis deepens.
As of Tuesday, France’s interior ministry said 6,100 people had been arrested, the overwhelming majority of them minors.
At least 715 police officers and 215 teenagers have been injured in clashes.
Six months before an election to replace President Emmanuel Macron, his government and Le Pen’s National Rally party have accused hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) lawmakers and mayors of stoking the protests. The party is led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is one of the most serious contenders for next year’s presidential election.
By Thursday, while the protests continued, the education ministry said that 94% of high schools were either fully or partially open.
EU: The New York Times’ Keith Bradsher had an extensive piece on the European Union and its looming trade showdown with China, with negotiations starting this week in Beijing. Next week, Europe’s presidents and prime ministers are gathering in Brussels, with the EU’s trade deficit with China running at 1 billion euro ($1.1 billion) per day.
“European officials blame an undervalued Chinese currency and Beijing’s state-controlled banking system, which has supplied vast amounts of cheap credit to build export-focused factories.”
China says the deficit reflects Europe’s surging imports of electric cars, solar panel, batteries and battery chemicals.
Of course, the United States has issues with China as Beijing’s trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion last year.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, warned in an address last month that Europe’s trade deficit with China had reached a “tipping point,” leading to deindustrialization in the industrial heartlands of Europe.
The leaders of France and Germany are calling for the EC to come up with a mechanism that could rapidly restrict access to the European market.
Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for W.T.O. Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said, “China will not accept any discriminatory measures.”
Keith Bradsher: “For now, time favors Beijing. Each passing month adds more than $30 billion to China’s trade surplus with Europe, supporting hundreds of thousands of Chinese industrial jobs. Meanwhile, European manufacturers continue to weaken. Germany alone has been losing at least 10,000 industrial jobs each month, according to analysts.”
Among the big issues are cars, where the EU imposed big tariffs on battery-electric cars from China, but the measure left a big loophole…the extra tariff does not apply to plug-in hybrids.
Exports of plug-in hybrids have soared from fewer than 10,000 a month to almost 200,000 a month in just three years, with many going to Europe.
There are also issues like renewables and wind turbines.
But like with the United States, Europe’s dependence on China for rare-earth metals, which are crucial for automobiles, drones, lasers, semiconductors, jetliners, electronics and other advanced industries, is critical. Von der Leyen, after previously accusing Beijing of restricting rare-earth shipments to Europe, called for the Union to develop its own supplies.
In July, Beijing imposed stringent restrictions on rare-earth exports, limiting them to 14 European companies.
Turning to Asia…nothing of note from China on the economic data front this week.
Japan’s September PMI service sector reading was 51.3.
August household spending (like U.S. retail sales), fell 3.1% year-over-year.
Street Bytes
—The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs this week, ignoring rising oil and interest rates at the time of the highs, Tuesday, while the Dow Jones had a strong week.
In the end, the Dow was up 0.9% to 51654, the S&P 1.2% and Nasdaq 0.6%.
Earnings season gets cranking next week.
—U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.32% 2-yr. 4.79% 10-yr. 5.24% 30-yr. 5.60%
The yield on the 10-year hit 5.36% early in the week, highest since 2002, as oil was rising. But buyers do emerge at certain levels, and a successful 30-year auction helped as yields fell, President Trump having also announced Thursday that he would not be attacking Iran before the midterms.
Odds for an October Fed rate hike also diminished, as they long should have.
But we’ll see what next week’s inflation data reveals, and whether Iran will keep up its attacks on shipping.
–The Wall Street Journal had an extensive piece on the plight of truckers who use diesel. At a truck stop in Texas, “Agron Berani pulled the pump out of his 18-wheeler loaded with steel and electrical supplies bound for Beaumont, Texas, and pointed to the screen with a groan: $944.44. A year ago in Texas, the same 151 gallons would have cost around $500.
With the slim margins truckers have, starting with costs for the truck loan and insurance, it’s increasingly impossible to make ends meet and scores of independent trucking firms are going under. Some told the Journal that they park at loading docks to avoid overnight truck stop fees.
—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized prominent artificial-intelligence figures’ warnings about existential risks posed by the technology as alarmist and unhelpful, calling on the industry to police itself and produce solutions.
“I believe that we have to be prepared for every occasion, but on the other side, this alarmism without solutions by some of the AI community, that’s not leadership,” Bessent told Axios in an interview published Saturday.
As noted in the past few weeks in this space, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI chief Sam Altman and xAI Corp.’s Elon Musk in September called for the industry to slow development of its most advanced models, citing growing risks for humanity. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates also warned the technology is powerful enough to cause “a billion deaths” and called for government regulation.
President Trump immediately rejected the calls, labeling the increasingly dire warnings about risks to humanity a “hoax” and insisting the U.S. must push forward to maintain leadership over China – a sentiment that Bessent echoed in his remarks to Axios. “We cannot lose our lead to the Chinese,” he said.
“It is the people at the labs who have to accept responsibility, and I agree with that,” Bessent said. “I think the labs have come around to that way of thinking, too.”
Bessent told Axios the U.S. will also seek to mitigate the risks with a bilateral notification system with China that aims to reduce uncertainty, share warnings about serious incidents and help both governments respond before an AI problem escalates or spreads globally.
–In an interview with Bloomberg TV, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Anthropic’s Mythos artificial-intelligence model has dramatically increased global cybersecurity risks.
“AI created vulnerabilities that we didn’t know about, and we always worried about cyber before these things.”
OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly acknowledged that they’ve inadvertently breached the systems of multiple institutions, including Hugging Face Inc., while testing their models.
“The downside is obviously what you read about with the agents and Mythos and all these things that can cause trouble, and that’s a legitimate concern, it’s a real thing,” Dimon said. “I’m not going to get hysterical over, ‘Is it existential or not?’ What we’re doing is rolling up our sleeves and going to work to fix it.”
–A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that the Trump administration and Congress are not taking the risks of AI seriously enough and want the government to write new regulations for the technology. Some 57% of registered voters in the poll – including a third of self-identified Republicans – said the Trump administration has not taken AI risks seriously enough or at all. Some 54% said the same about Congress.
On the question ‘Does America need stricter AI regulation?’
All adults…Yes, 69%. Republicans 61%. Democrats 80%. Independents 65%.
The poll found 84% of voters saw AI as a threat to American workers.
Fifty-six percent of voters back limits on building data centers, including 69% of Democrats, 55% of independents and 43% of Republicans.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Thursday:
“The White House considers anyone that uses the term, ‘Artificial Intelligence,’ as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, ‘Super Intelligence,’ THE ENEMY!”
Truly pathetic.
—Samsung Electronics Co. reported a nearly nine-fold rise in quarterly operating profit, though that was still shy of sky-high expectations elevated by relentless spending on AI infrastructure.
The world’s largest memory chipmaker posted a record preliminary operating profit of $80.1 billion for the quarter ended September. But even those record results still fell short of the average analyst forecast. Revenue came in at 195 trillion won ($145 billion), also lower than expectations. The shares fell about 2% in trading in Seoul.
The Suwon-based company will release a full financial statement on Oct. 29.
—Chip stocks swooned Thursday afternoon after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI was on track to generate annualized revenue of nearly $50 billion based on its performance as of the end of September, the FT citing documents shared with investors. The figure represents a significant jump from the year prior, but less than the nearly $70 billion revenue run rate that some outlets had reported late last month.
OpenAI then said they would be annualizing at $70 billion by end of the year.
—Delta Air Lines shares fell 2% after the company reported third quarter results Friday that missed earnings expectations while the company cut its guidance, noting that its total fuel bill for the year would increase by a whopping $6 billion.
For the quarter, Delta reported Q3 adjusted revenue of $17.58 billion, slightly below estimates of $17.76 billion, up 15.7% from a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 were vs. the $1.82 Street estimate.
Delta said its Q3 performance was hit by $500 million in higher fuel costs than the guidance it issued in July. Delta’s total fuel bill for the quarter hit $4.1 billion, up 62% from a year ago, owing to the Iran War.
The airline then cut its adjusted EPS forecast to $5.10-$5.60 from $6.50-$7.50.
“All of it’s fuel,” CFO Erik Snell added when asked where the impact of the guidance cut came from on a call with reporters.
It was Delta’s highest-spending customers who helped blunt some of the blow this quarter, premium business growing 18% year over year in the quarter.
—TSA checkout numbers vs. 2025
10/8…120 percent of 2025 levels
10/7…113
10/6…78
10/5…90
10/4…133
10/3…77
10/2…100
10/1…124
–In a potentially huge development, SpaceX announced a wireless spectrum acquisition late Thursday, stoking fears of wireless telecom disruption and sending shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile down 5%-6%.
The agreement, with Grain Management, would give SpaceX a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz ban.
“This prime low-band spectrum addresses one of the key remaining technical gaps that will pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.,” said the company in a news release.
That’s competition for the traditional industry. A game-changer.
But shares of wireless infrastructure provider Crown Castle and American Tower surged, as SpaceX needs terrestrial infrastructure.
“Starlink Mobile’s flexible, hybrid architecture will leverage both terrestrial and satellite technology to ensure all Americans have high-speed mobile broadband,” reads part of the agreement.
Grain Management has historical relationships with wireless tower providers.
The deal is significant for the wireless industry. SpaceX isn’t content to only offer broadband service. It appears to want to control the phone, too.
—PepsiCo Inc. lowered its profit outlook, with the snacks and beverage company’s recovery in North America taking longer than expected.
The maker of Doritos, Lay’s and Gatorade now expects core constant currency earnings per share to grow between 1% and 2% this fiscal year, after previously forecasting growth at the low end of 4% to 6%. The company faces higher costs in North America in particular that are weighing on margins.
With consumers under increasing economic pressure, in February, the company lowered prices on certain medium, grocery-store sized bags of its marquee brands. However, it will be raising some prices in the coming months, a sign the cuts failed to spur significant sales growth.
The company will continue to offer more products with protein and fiber, as well as those with simpler ingredients and different oils, including avocado oil.
—Paramount closed its $81 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, the companies announced Tuesday – forming a new Hollywood giant now called Skydance.
This marks one of the biggest tie-ups ever in the media and entertainment industry. The merger brings two of America’s oldest moviemaking studios together – along with HBO Max, and networks like CNN, which will be under the same roof as Paramount+, CBS and the likes of “Top Gun” and “The Godfather.”
—The Tom Cruise film “Digger” bombed at the box office with an opening weekend of just $8 million domestically, another $12 million internationally. The film cost $125 million to produce but others put the total closer to $150 million+ (Variety put it at $160 million to $180 million), with nearly $100 million more spent on marketing.
It was the last Warner Bros. movie before the closure of the Paramount/Skydance deal. None of the studio’s 2026 films has grossed more than $100 million, and “Supergirl” and “The Bride” both produced big losses for the studio.
In contrast, Amazon MGM released “Verity,” the fourth adaptation of a Colleen Hoover novel in the past two years, and took in an estimated $33 million, with an additional $30 million overseas, on a production budget of $40 million, despite weak reviews.
–Fortune magazine had a piece on how McDonald’s strategy for winning back customers with special offers just doesn’t seem to be working.
In each quarter this year, McDonald’s U.S. growth has shrunk and customer visits have reportedly dropped. In its most recent quarter, McDonald’s reported U.S. comparable sales growth of 0.8%, not a disaster, but a continuation of its slowing growth and an underwhelming performance, especially compared to the 8.5% jump at resurgent rival Burger King.
What’s worried investors most about McDonald’s financial performance, particularly in the U.S. where it generates 40% of revenue or $10 billion a year, is a drop in store visit. While McDonald’s doesn’t report traffic numbers, analytics firm Placer.ai estimates U.S. visits fell 4.5% in the first half of 2026.
So, personally, I have a choice between Burger King and McDonald’s, both roughly equidistant, and I love Burger King and can’t remember the last time I went to McDonald’s.
BK’s PR campaign has been terrific, but more importantly, they changed the packaging and some of the ingredients for the Whopper and it presents good value. Other menu items do as well.
And with Burger King I’m not using special coupons, like I used to do when Wendy’s (also about the same distance) issued them. Otherwise, as much as I like Wendy’s food, I never think of going there either.
And that’s your Fast-Food Minute….
Foreign Affairs
Russia/Ukraine: Over the weekend, Russian forces hit a major bridge in Kyiv that connects the left and right banks of the Dnipro River, as well as a logistics center near the capital overnight, in the latest series of drone attacks on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure.
Traffic across Kyiv’s Northern or Pivnichnyi Bridge has been halted, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a Telegram on Saturday. The strike damaged the bridge’s surface and overhead electrical wires of the city’s trolleybus network, he said.
The attack follows a series of strikes on Kyiv’s Southern road-and-rail bridge across the Dnipro earlier this week, which created logistical issues across Ukraine’s capital.
Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed the latest attack, saying in a statement that the bridge it hit was being used to transport military cargoes.
Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian civil infrastructure in the recent weeks, targeting residential areas, data centers and energy facilities, as well as sea terminals and cargo vessels in a move to disrupt agricultural exports across the Black Sea and make the coming winter more difficult for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Financial Times this week that the increase in strikes on civilian targets comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed his military leaders to abandon the rules of war [emphasis mine]. Zelensky cited intelligence intercepted by Kyiv, the Kremlin not commenting.
Airstrikes are happening around the clock as Moscow has ramped up production of ballistic missiles and jet-powered Shahed drones, while Kyiv faces a shortage of Patriot interceptors.
Zelensky said Russia is looking to intensify attacks on Ukraine’s largest cities, to isolate them as winter sets in.
Russia then struck the Northern bridge a second day in a row. They also struck a pharmaceutical warehouse in Sumy and a communications facility in Dnipro; one person was killed and six injured in the attacks, Zelensky said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv on Sunday, reiterating Germany’s backing for Ukraine and the dangers posed by Vladimir Putin.
“It is important that Ukraine is not left alone against this terror,” Zelensky said on Sunday. “Russia must be held accountable for this escalation.”
Crickets, as usual, from President Trump.
Separately, Moldova reported that several Russian attack drones violated its airspace before exploding.
Moldova is sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania and close to the Black Sea coast.
And then overnight Wednesday, Russia pounded Ukraine with waves of missiles and drones in one of the most “vile strikes,” President Zelensky said, killing at least 32 people, including children, and damaging industrial facilities and energy infrastructure.
The heaviest losses were in Pryluky in Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region, where a Russian missile destroyed a five-story residential building.
Ukraine’s emergency service said on Telegram that the death toll in Pryluky had risen to 22 as of Thursday morning and two more bodies were discovered following a Russian air strike on an apartment building in Kyiv, taking the toll there to four dead.
Zelensky noted that the attacks coincided with Putin’s 74th birthday.
“This is the kind of birthday present that Putin gave himself: the killing of children, the killing of people,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
In total, Russia fired 70 missiles at Ukraine overnight – many of them high-velocity ballistic munitions – and dozens of Shahed attack drones.
“The Russians wanted to strike painfully and demonstratively. This was one of the most vile strikes,” Zelensky said.
Ukraine’s air force said it had downed 80% of the 46 jet-powered drones launched by Russia – an increase from recent weeks when air defenses took down 50% to 60%.
Zelensky said Ukraine hit Russia’s energy assets in response to Moscow’s escalating strikes, including two Russian oil facilities and a training ground in the Perm, Samara and Astrakhan regions.
The United Nations said this week that it had verified more than 15,000 civilians killed or wounded in Ukraine in the first eight months of this year, a sharp increase from last year.
And then Thursday, in the eastern front-line city of Kramatorsk, a Russian glide bomb assault on two buses killed 35 people, a day after the attack on Pryluky killed 22.
“Once again, the Russians have struck a location where there are absolutely no military targets,” Kramatorsk’s city council said.
–On a totally different issue, Russia’s health watchdog said on Tuesday that no cases of plague had been detected among people who had come into contact with a Siberian plague institute laboratory worker who died last Friday.
The worker contracted “pneumonia of an unknown cause,” the region’s governor, Igor Kobzev, said Monday.
Rospotrebnadzor, the watchdog, said in a statement that no infectious diseases had been reported among the staff of the same plague research institute in Irkutsk over the past 10 days and that extensive testing had found no microorganisms in the deceased woman’s body linked to her work.
An official added that 60% of those placed under quarantine had already been released.
The Kremlin sought to play down concerns about the potential spread of an infectious disease. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the issue was being handled by the federal consumer-protection agency, which oversees the Antiplague Scientific Research Institute.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is monitoring the incident. “I don’t think it’s cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus and cause to just keep an eye on it,” he said on a trip to Iceland on Monday. President Trump told reporters the U.S. was “looking at it very strongly” and vowed to hold a call with Putin on the topic.
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a post on X on Tuesday that Russian health officials reported no cases of plague have been registered in the Irkutsk oblast.
“They reported that no high-threat pathogens had been detected among the contacts and that medical observation of all identified contacts had been completed,” he said.
But this hasn’t satisfied the international community, particularly with memories of the Covid-19 pandemic still fresh in mind.
Tuesday, President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that Russia said they “have it under control.” But he added that its information-sharing leaves more to be desired.
“Russia is sharing a little bit with our people. I want them to share a lot with our people,” he said.
Trump said he would talk to Putin on the situation “very soon.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) raised concerns that Russia might be conducting biological weapons research involving the plague. He said additional scrutiny is warranted, especially given Russia’s history of a biological weapons program.
“We do know from defectors in the 1970s and ‘80s that they were weaponizing the plague,” Paul told Fox News. “So, this is concerning.”
China: Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“The phrase of the hour in Washington is that the Trump Administration wants ‘strategic stability’ with China, and it’s a nice aspiration. But the Chinese Communist Party isn’t behaving like a force for peace in the world, and the latest evidence is Beijing’s alleged spying in the U.S. on the son of Taiwan’s president.
“ ‘The FBI on Sunday arrested a 34-year-old woman trying to board a flight to China at Los Angeles International Airport. The FBI said in a post on social media that Wanying Zhang, known as Heather, allegedly ‘surveilled the Taiwanese President’s son and his family-filming their home, vehicles, and reporting information back to PRC handlers,’ according to a criminal complaint.
“Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te is a singular target for Beijing. He and his Democratic Progressive Party are attempting to rally the island to prepare to defend itself from Chinese aggression and to sacrifice to preserve the peaceful status quo of political and economic freedom on the island….
“Mr. Lai’s son appears to be living in the U.S. and working in Washington state. No doubt the Communist Party wants to collect information about Mr. Lai’s family that it could exploit to blackmail or harm the President and his party in Taiwan. And it is notable, if not a great surprise, that Beijing is brazen enough to think that it can get away with something like this in the U.S. homeland.
“The case is the tiny tip of the iceberg of Chinese espionage in America – from attempts to infiltrate the U.S. military for secret and companies for technology, to surveilling universities and Chinese dissidents in exile or Chinese students studying in the U.S.
“No matter President Xi Jinping’s pronouncements about steady relations with the U.S., what matters is Beijing’s conduct. China acts against U.S. interests around the globe, including on American soil.”
I’ve told you I’ve had Chinese spies/agents in my building. The wives are very friendly (but speak no English), while the men refuse to speak to you and when they see you, like at the elevator, with their eyes burning a hole in your brain.
Random Musings
–Presidential approval ratings….
Rasmussen: 41% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 58% disapprove (Oct. 9).
An NBC News/Telemundo poll of registered Latino voters found 27% approved of Trump’s job performance, 69% disapprove.
On the issue of congressional control, 59% favor Democrats, 35% Republicans.
On the issues, again, among Latino voters, 30% approve, 69% disapprove of President Trump’s handling of immigration.
On the economy, the split is 25% approve, 74% disapprove.
And on the issue of the cost of living, 20% approve of Trump’s handling of it, 78% disapprove.
—A New York Times/Siena poll found Democrats performing strongly in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to win control of the chamber – Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
The polls suggest Democrats are performing well with independent voters, who often decide elections. Across the five states, Democrats hold a 24-piont advantage with the group.
President Trump has won every time he was on the ballot in the five.
—Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Wednesday for Western nations to rejuvenate their civilization so they can maintain their dominance in a world of wars, economic uncertainty and technological change.
“Today, we find ourselves at a crossroads,” Rubio said in a speech in Athens. “The next decade will write the story of the next century. The course we take will determine whether the West maintains its place at the head of the world, or resigns itself to a future of atrophy, servitude and decline. We’ll either choose to act now, or lose the choice to act at all.”
Men of ancient Greece, Rubio said, “knew that there was nothing selfish or wrong about loyalty to your nation, nor in fighting to defend its interests above all else.”
“They believed – fiercely – in the ideal of the ‘great man’: the exceptional individual who obtains immortality through his own deeds,” he added.
He went on to link the philosophical and political pursuits of ancient Greece to “the architects of European Christendom,” who designed soaring cathedrals, and to colonial settlers, who embodied “the American frontier spirit.”
“We believe that Europe can awaken from its long slumber and rekindle the fire that was here millennia ago,” he said.
Nations, he said, must have “the ability to wield force when prudence and diplomacy fail.”
Yes, Secretary Rubio is running for president, and he certainly gets my vote over the vice president.
—The U.S. has a real diplomatic mess on its hands after Japanese police arrested a U.S. Marine in the alleged robbery and murder of a woman on Okinawa, officials said Sunday, the latest criminal case on the southern island where the heavy American troop presence has always been a sensitive issue.
Police said security camera footage showed the man believed to be the suspect entering a hotel in Naha, Okinawa’s capital city, with the victim and coming out alone. An officer arrested the suspect after spotting him walking alone on a street in Naha’s entertainment district ate Saturday.
—Brazil is headed to a runoff between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and the eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, who represents the ‘right’ and conservatives.
Bolsonaro received 47.3% of the vote in the first round, short of the 50% needed for an outright victory, while da Silve got just 44.8%. Other right-wing candidates won a combined 5%, leaving the 80-year-old incumbent fighting for his political survival ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff.
Brazil’s right has gained ground in recent years, fueled by anger over violent street crime and frustration among businesses and middle-class voters over taxes, spending and the left’s stewardship of the economy.
The campaign has been one of the most vicious in Brazil’s democratic history. Neither of the two showed up for the televised debates, leaving little room for policy discussion as the campaign was filled with personal attacks and accusations of treason, pedophilia and blasphemy. Plus, throw in a sprawling bank scandal that has engulfed Brazil’s political class.
—President Trump reversed course on Monday and announced that his super PAC would now pay for the television ads promoting him that have been airing nationwide at taxpayer expense.
More than $10 million in taxpayer-funded ads have run since September, according to AdImpact, the ad-tracking service. The ads, which are running on cable and network television, were paid for through a $20 million contract that used funds from the Department of Homeland Security.
Trump on Truth Social, Monday PM:
“The Radical Left is upset with the fact that I am taking Ads, which I consider to be a positive promotion for our Great U.S.A., and paying for them with U.S.A. money. This is a rather standard thing to do but, rather than doing that, although nothing will make them happy, I have decided to do the Patriotic Ads, among others, and pay for them myself, and with money I raised for MAGA, Inc. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
The White House did not immediately say how the president’s super PAC would pay for the ads. Or if he would refund the money back to the taxpayers. And there are legal issues involving his new method of funding the ads.
I’m hardly from the ‘Radical Left’ and I don’t like the ads. They are deeply disturbing, let alone the use of taxpayer money for them.
—Monday, at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, Trump argued Americans should accept the economic impact, most notably higher gasoline prices, resulting from the Iran war.
“It’s a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe,” he said.
“They can take out a city. Let ‘em take out Los Angeles, let ‘em take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay” Trump added to applause from the crowd.
The remarks quickly circulated online, drawing sharp condemnation from California officials, while White House Communications Director Steven Cheung said Trump was talking about protecting U.S. cities by preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
“He was clearly stating U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped,” Cheung said on social media.
Gov. Gavin Newsome responded:
“After sending the National Guard and Marines to occupy California, Donald Trump is now saying our foreign enemies should ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego. He is deranged and dangerous.”
Trump attempted to walk back the comment at a rally in Texas Wednesday night, saying he would “protect” Los Angeles and San Diego.
—President Trump wasted time on Saturday going after Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton for his failure to support a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, urging Americans to call what appeared to be the personal cellphone number of Cotton, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
The Sunshine Protection Act passed the House in July, but it faces roadblocks in the Senate where some Republicans are strongly opposed. Proponents, including the Whtie House, argue that the change would provide more daylight during the times that Americans are most active. Detractors said permanent daylight savings time would lead to darker and potentially more hazardous winter mornings when children will be waiting for school buses and parents will be driving to work in darkness.
Republicans would prefer the president focus on talking about affordability issues and the party’s achievements, just weeks before the midterms
In one of two lengthy Truth Social posts, Trump blamed Cotton for stopping the bill. “So, everyone in Arkansas, a State I love, and won 3 times, the last by 34 points, tell Tom to, GET IT DONE! It will be appreciated by all.”
When reporters called the phone number, the voicemail box was full.
–The Wall Street Journal reported that when Kimberly Guilfoyle “was preparing for her congressional hearing to become U.S. ambassador to Greece…she reached out to a Trump donor with an urgent request: She needed $100,000 that she said she owed American Express – in a way that wouldn’t leave a paper trail.
“ ‘It won’t show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express,’ she wrote on Signal, according to messages reviewed by the Journal. ‘Please.’”
It is one, messy, dirty, embarrassing situation involving a gentleman, Eric Deters, “a former congressional candidate in Kentucky who was seeking her help in getting the attention of the new Trump administration on some personal tax and legal issues – and had promised payments of as much as $1 million if she was successful. As Donald Trump Jr.’s former fiancé, Guilfoyle offered to use her sway, according to Deters and messages reviewed by the Journal.”
But Guilfoyle’s confirmation hearing was coming up, and she needed her card balance paid down before then, she said.
There’s a lot more to the story and other Guilfoyle activities, including as ambassador.
—President Trump on Truth Social, Thursday:
“FoxNews [sic] is long form interviewing the sleazebag, Dan Osborn, right now who is running against our GREAT Republican Senator, Pete Ricketts, from Nebraska. Why are they doing this??? The ‘other side’ doesn’t give our people any positive exposure or airtime. It is a miracle that I won, the last by a landslide, three Presidential Races! President DJT”
I imagine on Trump’s deathbed, as Don Jr., Eric and Ivanka lean in to hear him, his final words will be, ‘I won three presidential races by a landslide….’
Earlier Thursday morning, Trump posted:
“My Rally crowds and enthusiasm are unbelievable! Nobody has ever seen anything like it. We are flipping races all over the place. The Fake News knows it, but they don’t want to be truthful with their viewers. It’s all happening! The Dumocrats never counted on this. Thanks [sic] you to the great Networks that are covering the Rallies in full. They are being rewarded with BIG RATINGS. Watch for the ‘Midterm Surprise!’”
–The Pentagon says the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan will be livestreamed after Defense Secretary Hegseth said the execution would be “public.”
This is a massive mistake. It’s not a deterrent…it will be used as a recruiting tool, in my humble opinion.
—The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner is Navi Pillay, a South African human rights lawyer who was recognized “for her efforts to promote peace and international law,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced today.
Ms. Pillay, formerly the United Nations’ top human rights official, also served as a judge at the International Criminal Court and on an international tribunal investigating the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Last year, a UN commission led by Pillay determined that Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a finding that the Israeli government rejected.
—Cornell’s president issued a video message Saturday on the rape scandal engulfing the Ivy League school, calling the case “deeply disturbing” and “a defining moment” in the university’s history.
President Michael Kotlikoff said he and other administrators “must do better,” as he welcomed state Attorney General Letitia James taking over a criminal probe into the allegations by a former student that she was raped by several members of the Chi Phi fraternity in 2024.
This is a nightmare on so many levels. Beyond that, there’s no reason for me to comment.
—Dennis Hastert died. He was 84.
Hastert was an obscure Illinois congressman who rose to become the longest-serving Republican speaker of the House before falling from grace in a sex abuse scandal that came to light after he left government.
Hastert, a former teacher and wrestling coach, was sentenced to 15 months in federal prison in April 2016 for violating federal banking laws, having made millions of dollars in secret payments to cover up sexual misconduct with a male student. At his sentencing he admitted to sexually abusing teenage wrestlers as young as 14 when he coached at Yorkville High School in Yorkville, Ill., where he worked from 1965 to 1981.
He was released in July 2017 and lived out of the public eye his remaining years.
—Southern California’s extended heat wave shattered high-temperature records over the weekend and Monday, and extended further into midweek.
It hit 104 in downtown Los Angeles Monday, 102 at Hollywood Burbank Airport and 106 degrees in Woodland Hills.
Monday also marked the fourth consecutive day of triple-digit temperatures in downtown L.A., a record for October.
–You know, I never thought about what turns a Pacific hurricane into a ‘typhoon,’ by definition, until reading a piece on the weather channel website.
In the event I’m not the only one who hadn’t given it a thought, a hurricane turns into a typhoon once the storm is on the other side of the International Date Line, retaining the name.
This became an issue because Hurricane Nolo, that menaced Hawaii last week, weakened and then restrengthened on its trek west, crossing the date line and becoming Typhoon Nolo.
You seldom here about this because very few storms maintain their strength as long as Nolo has.
You know what island sits on the date line? Midway. And that’s your weather tidbit for the week.
—But after talking all summer about how we didn’t have a single hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, it seemed like only a matter of time that something happened in the Gulf of Mexico (still the Atlantic), and so we have Isaias, which became a hurricane Wednesday night.
The Weather Channel’s Chris DeWeese noted that aspiring meteorologists are taught, beware the “I” storm. Since 1954, more Atlantic storms with names beginning in “I” have been retired than any other letter in the alphabet (a storm name gets retired if it causes particularly intense destruction), and the list of retired “I” storms, which includes Ivan, Ike, Irma, Ida and Ian, makes a seasoned hurricane tracker shudder.
In all, 14 “I” names have been retired, with the next closest letter “F,” at 10 retired names.
It’s no surprise, seeing as during a typical Atlantic hurricane season, the ninth named storm usually forms between late August and mid-September, i.e., during the peak of the season, when ocean waters are at their warmest and conditions are favorable for rapid intensification.
But as I go to post, it seems Isaias, a dangerous CAT 3, will hit tonight between Mobile and Pensacola, a favorite spot of mine, Orange Beach, AL, in the crosshairs. A few miles from Orange Beach, heading towards Pensacola, is one of the great bars in the world, Flora-Bama, where your editor has had a great time. I’m praying for all of them. This could be bad.
—
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
Slava Ukraini! [F- Putin.]
God bless America.
—
Gold $4196…Silver $60.75
Oil (WTI) $91.40…Brent $104.10
Regular Gas: $4.37; Diesel: $6.27 [$3.11 – $3.67 yr. ago]
Bitcoin: $82,284 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Returns for the week 10/5-10/9
Dow Jones +0.9% [51654]
S&P 500 +1.2% [7811]
S&P MidCap +0.1%
Russell 2000 -1.0%
Nasdaq +0.6% [27366]
Returns for the period 1/1/26-10/9/26
Dow Jones +7.5%
S&P 500 +14.1%
S&P MidCap +11.0%
Russell 2000 +13.1%
Nasdaq +17.7%
Hang in there.
Brian Trumbore
