Thurs., Oct. 8, 2026
[4:10 PM ET…closing prices for stocks, 3:50ish for commodities and bonds]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri., Feb. 27…regular $2.98…diesel $3.75
Thurs., Oct.8…regular $4.36…diesel $6.28
As often happens in the early morning sessions, crude oil (WTI) and Brent were up sharply, WTI over $92.50 and Brent $105, as concerns over supply disruptions intensified.
Reports showed that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections, while President Trump said on Wednesday in a rally in Texas that he no longer wanted a deal with Iran.
Also, attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with the Houthis stepping up strikes against Saudi Arabia, killing three civilians on strikes at two airports, including at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.
Oil prices also received support from supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, where companies such as Chevron and Shell have begun curbing production and evacuating personnel from offshore facilities as Hurricane Isaias (hitting hurricane strength overnight Wednesday) approaches.
As of Wednesday evening, around 25% of current U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production and 16% of natural gas production had been shut in because of the storm, according to the Marine Minerals Administration.
Gasoline and heating oil (diesel) futures spiked in the morning as well on all the above.
Oil, gasoline and heating oil then held their gains until 12:17 PM ET, when on Truth Social, President Trump wrote:
“We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
I don’t have time to fact-check this, but there is some utter bulls— in the post. There are no productive negotiations taking place, for starters. [Unless you tell me President Trump is about to cave to Iran’s demands, which isn’t likely.]
But bottom line, if the president wasn’t so reckless with his rhetoric, he wouldn’t need to backtrack every 24-48 hours.
WTI, however, fell to $90.50, Brent $103, immediately on the post, but then it rallied back! [Heating oil futures were up 27 cents at 2:30 PM ET.]
As for stocks, they opened way down on the overnight news on the oil front; and then were rallying along with crude after the Trump post, as the administration frantically tries to keep the lid on oil (and the price of gasoline and diesel at the pump) ahead of the midterms.
But then the Financial Times released a report that OpenAI’s revenue is $20 billion less than had been previously signaled and chip stocks tanked.
The FT said that OpenAI was on track to generate annualized revenue of nearly $50 billion based on its performance as of the end of September, citing documents shared with investors. The figure represents a significant jump from the year prior, but less than the nearly $70 billion revenue run rate that some outlets had reported late last month.
So, this feeds the ‘bear’ case…as some investors question how long AI spending can last, especially as companies’ big investment plans come under pressure because of rising borrowing costs around the world.
—
Trump on Truth Social, 12:14 PM today:
“The White House considers anyone that uses the term, ‘Artificial Intelligence,’ as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, ‘Super Intelligence,’ THE ENEMY! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Mr. President, you’re labeling me, and others of my ilk, a still registered Republican and Patriot, the Enemy?! You’re a freakin’ mess. It will always be ‘AI’ at StocksandNews.
—
The Yankees, Padres and Braves were eliminated in their division league series last night, the Guardians surviving to force a Game 4 tonight back in Chicago.
New York’s drought without a World Series title has hit 17 years, but it doesn’t seem as if manager Aaron Boone’s job is in jeopardy; Boone having made the playoffs in eight of his nine seasons.
But all New York baseball fans were wondering why Boone had Trent Grisham batting leadoff in Game 3 last night, the Rays completing a sweep.
Grisham sucks and had a horrendous season, batting .211, with a .308 on-base percentage. He also has a career batting average of .156 in the postseason…and that’s your ideal leadoff hitter?!
On second thought, Boone should be fired…unless…it was GM Brian Cashman making the decision.
—
Dow Jones +51…+0.1% [51232]
S&P 500 -36…-0.5% [7765]
Nasdaq -345…-1.3% [27193]
Oil (WTI) $91.25…Brent $103.95
Gold $4130
Silver $59.15
Bitcoin: $81,738 [4:00 PM ET…sloppy action after hitting nearly $87,000 a week ago]
U.S. 2-yr. 4.75%
U.S. 10-yr. 5.23%…PM rally on solid 30-year auction…long-end yields may have peaked….
Japanese 10-yr. 3.08%
Check out my ‘Week in Review,’ posted Friday at 4:30 PM ET.
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Brian Trumbore
