So, I’m sure all of you were smart enough to buy stocks last
October 9. Unfortunately, I wasn’t. Something about a war to
worry about back then, weapons of mass destruction, and all that
stuff. But if you threw caution to the wind you have been richly
rewarded.
10/9/2002
Dow Jones….7286
S&P 500……..776
Nasdaq……..1114
Russell 2000…327
10/9/2003
Dow Jones….9680
S&P 500……1038
Nasdaq………1911
Russell 2000…521
Investor Sentiment: Bull / Bear ratio
10/9/02
Bulls: 31.0
Bears: 39.1*
10/9/03
Bulls: 55.9
Bears: 22.5
*One week later the bull / bear reading was 28.4 / 43.2, the
lowest for bulls in the cycle, as well as the highest figure for
bears. As a contrarian indicator it worked perfectly back then.
This year, the radio peaked on 6/20/03, 60.2 bulls / 16.1 bears.
The Dow Jones closed that week at 9200.
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The equity markets hit the lows of 10/9/02 on a Wednesday, but
just two days later finished the week with a roar.
10/11/02
Dow Jones…7850
S&P 500……835
Nasdaq…….1210
Interestingly, a big reason given for the rally after hitting the
bottom on 10/9 was Yahoo’s positive earnings report and the
stock rallied to $13. This week, Yahoo exceeded expectations
again, fueling a further rally in the Internet sector as well as
Nasdaq overall, with Yahoo shares finishing up 10/9/03 at $43.
Gold / Oil
10/9/02
Gold…$319
Oil…..$29.35
10/9/03
Gold…$369
Oil……$31.01
10-year U.S. Treasury
10/9/02…3.78%*
10/9/03…4.31%
*10/11/02 close.
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Wall Street History will return 10/24.
Brian Trumbore
