Tuesday, May 12, 2026…4:10 PM ET
[4:00 PM ET closing prices for stocks; 3:50ish for commodities and bonds.]
Tale of the Tape at the gas pump, nationwide averages, courtesy of AAA.
Fri. Feb. 27…regular gas $2.98…diesel $3.75
Tues., May 12…reg. $4.50…diesel $5.64
Regular is down a nickel, but gasoline futures have been spiking anew…wait a few days.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continued to rise, above $102 on Tuesday, as concerns grew that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could persist. President Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was on “massive life support” yesterday after rejecting Tehran’s latest peace proposal, raising fears the critical shipping route may remain effectively closed for longer.
Yes, a few ships are getting through, but prior to the war we were talking 120-130 vessels each day were passing through the Strait – energy-, commodity-, and commercial-related.
As noted yesterday, Iran reportedly is demanding an end to the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions relief while seeking to maintain some control over traffic through the Strait.
Prior to his departure this afternoon for China, Trump was to meet with his national security team to consider renewed military action and discuss plans to escort commercial vessels through the Strait.
Little actually changed today from yesterday, and that’s not a good thing.
In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll of U.S. adults released late Monday, about 66% of those polled said Trump hasn’t “clearly explained” U.S. military goals in Iran, and 63% said their financial situation has been impacted by the steep rise in gas prices.
The president said Monday he supported suspending the federal gasoline tax, which is 18 cents per gallon. Asked how long the tax should be suspended, Trump told reporters, “Until it’s appropriate,” adding that the tax is a relatively small proportion of the cost of gas “but it’s still money.”
Any effort to suspend the gas tax would require congressional approval, but there seems to be bipartisan support.
Meanwhile, we had key inflation data today, consumer prices for April, and they were hot. The headline figures were 0.6% and 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023. On core, ex-food and energy, the numbers were 0.4% and 2.8%.
Among the individual items, the index for food rose 0.5% in April over March after being unchanged in March. The food at home index surged 0.7%.
Beef prices rose another 2.7%, 14.8% from a year earlier. [Chicken, on the other hand, was down 1.1% in April, and is down 0.7% year-over-year.]
Gasoline, as you might imagine, was up 5.4% last month, and 28.4% from a year ago.
Airline fares rose 2.8% and are now 20.7% higher than in April 2025.
And coffee is up 18.5% from a year earlier.
As for stocks today, the inflation data certainly wasn’t good news, and the massive rally in tech stalled, though the Dow Jones finished up.
The debate going forward will be how rising inflation could sway the Federal Reserve’s view of monetary policy, especially in light of Friday’s stronger-than-expected April jobs report.
But now it’s also about Trump and Chinese President Xi, and what each side says after the two days of talks in Beijing. Also, tomorrow’s producer prices report is rather important.
—
Dow Jones +56…+0.1% [49760]
S&P 500 -11…-0.2% [7400]
Nasdaq -185…-0.7% [26088]
Oil (WTI) $102.30.…Brent $107.70
Gold $4710
Silver $86.60
Bitcoin $80,800 [4:00 PM ET]
U.S. 2-yr. 3.99%
U.S. 10-yr. 4.46%
Japanese 10-yr. 2.53%…highest since 1997!
Back Wed.
Brian Trumbore
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